THE GROWING CONSENSUS ON PENTAGON SPENDING: Reprioritize, Reduce, Reshape to Deal with 21st Century Challenges In recent months,

a number of prominent reports have outlined how the Pentagons budget can be reshaped by reducing overall spending while reprioritizing investments to meet future security challenges. These analyses generally agree that the Pentagon can reduce overall force structure and spending while incurring acceptable risk to its ability support a robust national security strategy. The reports propose reductions over the decade ranging from $150 billion to $1 trillion, but average around $510.5 billion. These analyses, which represent an emerging consensus among defense thought-leaders, should be taken extremely seriously as the United States federal government considers the fiscal cliff, deficit reduction, sequestration and the balance between defense and non-defense spending. Taken together, they suggest that Pentagon spending can afford to remain on the table as part of a long-term deficit reduction plan. Below is a brief summary of the most salient of these analyses, followed by a detailed comparative summary of each approach: Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA) - $543 billion: in a report entitled, Reasonable Defense, PDA outlines $543 billion in savings over the next decade. The savings are guided by a strategy that emphasizes cost-effectiveness, counter-terrorism instead of counterinsurgency and deterring other states from aggression. Center for a New American Security (CNAS) - $150 billion: in a report entitled, Sustainable Preeminence, CNAS outlines an approach that can accommodate up to $150 billion in savings over the next decade. This approach would more efficiently implement the strategic rebalancing currently underway and emphasize power projection, leap-ahead technology, and interoperability between services. Center for American Progress (CAP) - $1 trillion: in a report entitled, Rebalancing our National Security, CAP outlines $1 trillion dollars in defense savings over the next decade in the form a unified security budget that would encompass multiple national security institutions. It broadly seeks to reduce American reliance on military power, pursue offshore balancing and increase funding for preventative national security initiatives undertaken by the State Department and other organizations. Stimson Center - $550 billion: in a report entitled, A New Defense Strategy for a New Era, the Stimson Center outlines a strategy it calls strategic agility that prioritizes power projection, focusing on vital national interests, technological superiority and finding large amounts of efficiency savings in business practices and personnel policies. The report presents a number of scenarios to achieve different levels of savings, the most relevant of which is its smoothed sequestration scenario finds $550 billion in savings over the next decade. This option is presented in two modes defined by different levels of efficiency savings. RAND Corporation - $213 billion: in a report entitled, A Strategy-Based Framework for Accommodating Reductions in the Defense Budget, RAND presents multiple strategies to a defense drawdown, the most salient strategy of which is to shift geostrategic focus to Western Pacific. By focusing cuts in ground forces, this option achieves up to $213 billion in savings over the next decade. Project on Government Oversight (POGO) - $688 billion: in a report entitled, Spending Even Less, Spending Even Smarter, POGO outlines a plan that would increase efficiency by better matching acquisition to real-world threats and by reducing dependence on overpriced contractors.

Reasonable Defense (PDA) Strategic Focus and Overall Themes Traditional defense Deterrence Crisis Response Counter-Terrorism

Overall DOD Budget Savings

Lower to $462b annual budget by FY2017 ($543 reduction over ten years, approx.) US Army: 420k US Navy: 275k USMC: 150k USAF: 295k

Sustainable Preeminence (CNAS) Implement strategic rebalancing Prioritize Navy-USAF Interoperability between services Up to $150b over ten years

Unified Security Budget (CAP) Rebalance U.S. power to greater emphasis on nonmilitary Offshore balancing $1 trillion over ten years

Strategic Agility, Smoothed Sequester Scenario (Stimson) Focus on vital interests Maintain technological superiority Power projection Emphasize efficiency savings in acquisition, personnel reform Scenario A Scenario B $550b over ten $550b over ten years, with years, with $400b in $200b in efficiencies efficiencies

Focus on Western Pacific Scenario (RAND) Prioritize Western Pacific Emphasize conventional deterrence v. China $183-$213b over ten years

Spending Less, Spending Smarter (POGO) Efficiency Match acquisition to reduced-threat environment $688b over ten years

End Strength Figures (AC)

Force Structure Changes

(Current Figures for Reference) Army: 553k Navy: 330k USMC: 203k USAF: 333k Army Reductions

US Army: 480k US Navy: n/a USMC: 175k USAF: conduct study on long-term personnel needs

Reduce personnel by $10b in FY2013

Reduce end strength by 40k (all to be taken from Europe, services unspecified)

Ground Forces (both Army and USMC): Reduce to 39 AC combat brigades, 23 RC brigades (27% below planned)

Investments USMC Reductions Cancel F-35B (other recommendations lumped in with Army under heading of ground forces)

Delay Ground Combat Vehicle un FY 2021 End Stryker Production Change Joint Light Attach Vehicle to smaller series bys every 2-3 years Cancel Distributed Common Ground SystemArmy Strengthen rapid deployment infrastructure Eliminate F-18/EA-6 squadrons on CVNs End MV-22 Osprey buy in FY 2016 after 314 aircraft Eliminate M1, MRAPs and other armor or transfer to RC

Ground forces (both Army and USMC): reduce forward deployments in Asia by 17k, Europe by 33k

Cut budget by 2% Reduce AC BCTs to 35-50 from 45

Cut budget by 5% Reduce AC BCT to 30 from 45

Cut 6 BCTs

Eliminate unrequested FY2013 funding for M1 Abrams

Cancel F-35B Cancel MV-22 Osprey

Cut budget by 1% Reduce end strength by 7%

Cut 13,500 Marines Cut 2 AC tactical fighter squadrons

Cancel V-22 Osprey and replace planned aircraft with MH-60 and CH-53 Cancel F-35B, replace with F/A-18s

Navy

Investments Reductions

Cancel F-35C Reduce CVN fleet to 9 from 11 Reduce total battle fleet to 230 (21% below planned) Reduce Ohio Class SSBN to 7 form 14. Reduce planned SSN fleet to 42 from 43-55, reduces Virginia Class SSN annual procurement to 1 from 2-3. Reduce Littoral Combat Ship buy to 12 from 55. Adopt greater crewrotation practices

Reduce F-35C by 50% Reduce CVN fleet to 10 from 11 an air wings to 9 from 10. Reduce MQ-4C BAMS buy by 50% Adopt greater crewrotation practices Forward base greater numbers of ships to AsiaPacific, Middle East

Cancel F-35C Reduce Virginia Class SSN to 1 per year

Retire Ticonderoga cruisers Reduce F-35 buy Reduce SSBNX buy

Cut growth to .4 % a year from planned .9 Retire Ticonderoga cruisers Reduce F-35 buy Reduce SSBNX buy

Reduce fleet by 5%, included 15 combatants

Eliminate Lockheed Martin LCS variant, replace with General Dynamics variant Reduce SSBNX buy to 8 from 12 Reduce CVN fleet to 10 from 11, cut air wings to 9 from 10. Cancel F-35C, replace with F/A-18s

Investments

Convert 4 Ohio Class SSBN to SSGNs

Accelerate X-47b development, create UAS long-range strike program of record Set goal for CVN air wing to be UAS by 2025 Develop hypersonic cruise missile Reduce F-35A buy to 1,000-12,000 from 1,763 Consider reducing LRSBomber buy below 80100 Reduce F-35A by 50%

Ensure FA-X development

Ensure FA-X development

Emphasize undersea systems Emphasize stealthy longrange aircraft

USAF

Reductions

Reduce bomber/fighter inventory to 2942 from 3316 (9% cuts to both bomber and fighter forces evenly) Reduce F-35A buy to 250 Buy F-16 and F-18E to compensate for F-35 reductions.

Cut budget by 1% Retire 13 F-16 squadrons

Investments

Buy F-16s to compensate for F-35 reductions Create long range strike UAS program of record (independent of LRSBomber) Accelerate investment in next-generation C4ISR Reduce nuclear weapons to 311

Accelerate LRS-Bomber development

Cut budget by 1% Retire 13 F-16 squadrons OR reduce F-35A Retire B-1 bomber Accelerate LRS-Bomber development

Cut structure by 5%, including 1 Tactical Fighter Wing

Cancel LRS-Bomber

Emphasize long-range strike

Nuclear Forces

Reduce to 900 strategic warheads (sea-land dyad) from 1790

Other / General

Reductions

Limit procurement during 2012-2022 to $1.05 trillion (16.8% less than White House 2013 request) Reduce non-combat contractors to 375k from 500k Reduce Civilian DoD Employees to 715k from 784k Increase R&D with focus on leap ahead systems, especially unmanned, artificial intelligence and space.

Reduce retirement benefits by $13 in FY2013 (+institute 401k-like buy-in) Reduce Tricare by $15b in FY2013 (+increase fees, adjust benefits ) Reduce pay increases Reduce R&D by $5b in FY2013

reduce nuclear forces and modernization OR cut national missile defense Cut national missile defense, focus on theaterdefense OR cut national missile defense

reduce nuclear forces and modernization OR cut national missile defense Cut national missile defense, focus on theaterdefense OR cut national missile defense

Implement personnel reforms if politically possible.

Share costs of B-61 modernization with NATO members Cancel CMRR Halt MOX fuel facility Cancel Y-12 facility Freeze Ground-based Midcourse Defense system Cancel Space-Based Infrared System Reform TRICARE Reduce DoD and nonDoD national security federal service contract by 15%

Investments

Reasonable Defense (PDA)

Sustainable Preeminence (CNAS)

Increase Diplomacy budget by $2.1b in FY2013 Increase contributions to Intl Organization by $1.7b in FY2013 Increase Economic Development Budget by $2.7b in FY2013 Increase alternative energy spending by $20b in FY2013 Unified Security Budget (CAP)

Double R&D Increase cyber capabilities Increase funding for space systems

Increase R&D by 50% Prioritize cyber capabilities Prioritize funding for space systems

Strategic Agility, Smoothed Sequester Scenario (Stimson)

Focus on Western Pacific Scenario (RAND)

Spending Less, Spending Smarter (POGO)