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The 2nd edition of this acclaimed, unique report includes additional market data and enhanced analysis. Detailed analysis and in-depth country-level data provides a comprehensive view of the land drilling market through to 2016. Follow-on investments in newbuild rig construction and the updating of current fleets (which have experienced underinvestment over the last three decades. The report examines national and regional onshore rig fleets in-depth, indicating the key players in each market and the quality of rigs currently available. The World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2012-2016 contains: Drivers, trends & themes discussion of fundamentals that drive exploration; specifically those that impact on the land drilling market. Country-by-country analysis comprehensive examination of 35 key countries, including: oil and gas production, onshore wells drilled, active drilling rigs required, plus the competitive landscape. Regional drilling market comprehensive summary at regional level including: oil and gas production. Forecasts for onshore wells drilled, active drilling rigs required. The regional competitive landscape. Enhanced analysis throughout the report new speed-read sections summarise & explain key points, giving an enriched reader experience & understanding. Analysis is based on extensive in-house data on the global rig fleet, developed & maintained by the DW team. Concise report layout industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review.
Key Co
Equipm
ent Man
mpone
ufacture
rs
nts: M
anufa
cturer
ROTA
RY TABL
SWIV
Howar
EL
d Tur
ner
Image
TOP DRIV E
s court
esy of
NOV
Mech anical devic tation e provi al force ding clock to the the proce wise drill string ross of drillin Mech g a bore to facilitate anical device hole. Mark rotate allowi et Summ while ng the ary maint in rotar drill string place. aining The globa y table the travel to manu with a l ling block facturing leader 71% mark in is NOV holds et share Can be the replac markets. leading posit . The comp ed by rigs. topdr any ion in ives in all regio more nal powe rful Mark et Summ ary share.
, NOV With a 66% is the manu marke global factur t leader ing. The in swive positio comp ns in l unit any holds North & FSU, leadin Amer Middl g ican, Easter e Easter marke n Europ n and ts. ean Africa n region
MUD
PUM
WOR
KS
device of the allowi drill pipe ng additi to drill onal sectio capac ity. increa ns sing rig depth Key new fields equip ment type in and uncon dema ventio nd for nal plays. matur e
*NEW report style with enhanced analysis and speedread summaries of key points throughout*
Calum Shaw, lead author of the report commented that, "The world onshore drilling rig market is set to expand from an estimated 9,700 rigs today to more than 11,000 units by 2016. Such growth is driven by an increasing volume and complexity of well requirements in order to meet global production targets. although meeting this growth may be a challenge. A significant number of high specification rigs and associated equipment will need to come to the market in the next five years and the pressure on the supply chain will be significant. Douglas-Westwood estimates that growth in global active rig demand will average 5% per annum over the 2012-2016 period. This latest insight from Douglas-Westwood suggests an increasingly important role for frontier markets globally with an estimated two thirds of active rig demand coming from regions outside North America by 2016. While countries such as Kazakhstan, Mexico and Oman are likely to witness decline, other markets including China, Colombia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the USA are all expected to see an increase in the number of rigs required.
Mark
leader marke positio
et Summ
al a 45% n in all any holds The comp region and CanR the leadin anies al marke inspe here ig (12%) g ts. ct the are manu marke also comm TESCO (16%) qualit t shares facturing y of equip and substa . organ ment ntial isatio the ns and North rigoro will sell Amer usnes ica is s of the or lease with 34% the larges 2012 inspe their of topdr t region Douglasction equip ive units al marke varies ment Westwo t between world to drillin wide. od g contr countries. actor s. Onsh ore field operators
NOV in topdr is the ive manu global t share. factur marke ing with t The comp
ary -
Mark
Critic al equip ment during used drilling to circula opera te drilling tions. fluid Major ity of onsho althou re rigs gh more use two powe pump than this. rful rigs s may emplo y more
ary and BOM CO (14%) Gardner Denv ket shares er comm ., howe and substa (21%) in mud ver NOV ntial marpump is the manu global share. factur leader The comp ing any holds with a 45% in all region marke the leadin al marke t g positio ts. n
et Summ
Mark
and
World
Land
Drilling
ary in draww NOV orks manu is the 43% marke global factur leader ing with t share. appro The comp g positio ximat ely any holds n in all excep region the tion of al marke Easter n Europ ts with the e & FSU. North Amer ica is with 39% the of draww largest region al marke orks units t world wide.
leadin
et Summ
Rig Mar
ket For
ecast
2012-2
016
M (inc. Oand rm rig platfo n) productio
Chapte
r 2: Dri
vers and
Indicato
rs
Ga Oil &
s Price
vit Sensiti
ies
oil prices
Sensitiv
sure to expo Limited exposure Medium sure r is highly s. expo g secto gas price High land drillin s in oil & -term short The USA fluctuation to relatively to those sensitive ination of pared s sudThe comb acts (com rates make contr ll land day overa onshore and lower in the ghted tions offshore) altera was highli icant ble. This downturn. den signif tion possi omic rig utilisa recent econ rica), g the durin h Ame ide Nort rally more (outs gene to ationally acts are ibute Intern contr acts contr r-term er contr longe a great has tion to lent. Such NOC preva g rig utilisa where an less likely maintainin ermore, cts are , t. Furth st, proje r-term exten longe intere ating they are an oper lled, as cance ts. to be tmen is E&A gic inves strate above to the ammes ption l exce ent progr The partia st developm lengths (1-2 act g. Whil contr despite drillin leted, vely long comp on the on relati invariably nditure negatively ) are e, expe years declin Chapte is often economic of new fieldsr 3: Metho ration explo dology ed. affect
et, s mark d State a high Unite ions and leads in the n With act durat etitio contr is comp short untry et which of in-co OFS mark ations in oil level g and fluctu to a drillin ptible to susce highly a prices. 29 ed to & gas g is affect and apdrillin ration nally, Internatio t, with explo cted first. exten impa lesser ammes progr praisal
ive
Insensit
EandC
Geop
hysical
servic
es g ore drillin ps Offsh Jacku (shallow) ational Intern g land drillin ENT LOPM DEVE
Offsh
Prices
& Gas
in Oil
Changes
Moder
ate
comp
Lag to
EandC
(land)
Highly
Rig Co
a
US land
drillin
s
18
unts Ex
ths -
2 year
s
Prices
er of Rigs
50
ket Public sourc Rig Mar es of some data on Drilling times rig coun dram Land illustr atically. Each ates the World rig coun The below ts vary, varian sourc t illustr considerat ce betw es for chart ated below Saudi ion, to Arabia. een three of the takes some availa into degre Each ble rig e, utilisa rig coun Douglasfleet. od of rigs that tion t has or meth Westwo its own Westwo operating could poten The actual numb DWs odolo definition tially appro ods App gy for it was er Douglaswork top level in some form ach disco ment , or are roac derivation Befor and/ ntinued, 2012 . , will for addit to assessing numb counts, be abov organ ers, albeit Schlu the requi h ional both e for exam isatio The numb e these mber rigs takes the avera none ns attem those regers outside of these er of rigs movi ple, attem rig ge numb definition into accou tion of rigs oper the USA. pt to track pted Baker ng from er to inclu the utilisa Hugh and the similar to that of rigs drillin nt location tion de definition usable fleet ating as a prop es defin and for avera to locat derives ition orge numb of Baker Hugh g (a (simil most of utilisa of overall ion. DWs ar to countries excludes OPEC es) the defin er of rigs tion impli rig utilisa such s defin Schlu is there tion. This rigs of rigs ition used operating mber ition is likely DWs on contr es the avera form to includ less clear fore lowe the capab ger count). by count ge prop act. r. e rigs The figure the old distin throu ortion guishes in trans although is stacked le fleet which gh its It is unlike below it. itself geogr temp includ is aphic oraril ly that or refur al scope 100% y or unde es those utilisa bishm rigs DWs and it . tion can rgoing ent at year. rig coun the numb is on this ever reach some repair t aspec basis point er of ts of appro combines that DW durin throu the best g the gh grow rigs likely to other aches major be requi derive th in dema counts. taken by the red nd. 90 No rig count is perfe count Baker 80 Hughe ct, but is a stron Schlum s DW features g addit OPEC berger 70 ion with s that are users uniqu highly . e valued 60 by its
180 160 140 120
er of Rigs
Rig Dat
ample
Changes
in Oil
& Gas
For
201 ecast
2-2016
Numb
40 30
100
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Capab le Fleet Rigs Drilling Rigs Operat ional Implied Utilisat ion % 2008 2009 20% 15% 10% 5% 2010 0%
Numb
80 60
Figure
2004
8: Comp
2005
arison
2012
of Histo
2006
Douglas-
ric Rig
2007
40
Westwo
Counts,
2008
Saudi
2009
20
od
Arabia
2010
0 2002 2003
Figure
9: Usab
2004
World
le Fleet
2005
Land
vs. Opera
2006
Drilling
ting vs.
2007
Drillin
Rig Mar
g, Saudi
ket For
Arabia
(Doug
ecast
las-W estwo
2012-2
od)
016
Chapte
Po
map are on the pghted ed disru tries highli experienc report. The coun have both n this that sed withi those being n are analy n there ore rigs tion and and Yeme to onsh productio in Syria this led been brought e has In Libya attacked while affected. r in Libya . Ther been g of majo Civil war still in 2011 physically ines have se the endin remains Chine nues r pipel to a stand ery since n (and 1.6 ts recov IOCs Spring upheaval conti ined majo productio levels of some ar ent exten t, many although pre-w differ The Arab and political countries exam t resul to direc hostilities, y lower than ity has l, civil, As a of the ated staff Socia and As secur s) evacu r in some significantl ls per day. in Iraq in NOC countries. to occu y n barre these returned rtaint millio report. within and other in this staff have ever unce to ered ty in these t that has ple. How to continue of recov g activi t uunres , for exam expected ore drillin ed by partic the exten Libya Onsh affect ets is years albeit ty, mark two is still Spring, these g activi the past lled Arab markets over en drillin gas so-ca damp uncertain. oil & occurred ining to the stream rema relating down this larly eam and Syria Iran with upstr targeted. n being Iraq Kuwait activity Lebano
r 2: Dri
vers and
rs Indicato
Cons litical
ideratio
ns
ing soexperienc terms in countries rtant n and 180 impo almost The regio unrest are ty with in these civil g activi e cial and chang ore drillin n. icant of onsh . Any signif r regio the wide rigs active will affect countries
to nues t conti the unres ets in and civil g mark ns. drillin Political a regio important aharan Afric affect and Sub-S y MENA uncertaint tructure, dampen infras to ks on Attac continue key markets. urity 24 and insec rigs in some nd for dema
Afghan
istan Pakista n
Tunisia rocco
Jordan
Mo
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Tunisia
Chapte r 12: Sub-Sah nia aran
Sudan
Africa Analysis
the ed by Arab Spring (The Guard ian)
20
Maurita
Nigeria
100%
Figure
7: Drillin
g Mark
ets Affect
World
Land
Dri
ket For
ecast
2012-2
016
60%
bl/d 0.54 mmb oe/d 0.00 mmb
2012
40%
Douglas-
Westwo
od
NRG
Chapte
r 12:
Sudan
Index
tion rates rate Gas d. Rig utilisa ok; mode may ast perio , this n Outlo the forec IOCs in Productio red many decline subdeter low r to the Growth cted to fall key ks have g facto Drilling; Attac Dayrate ty is expe ast period; a ibutin 100% ict g activi t; low be a contr Drillin the forec rising confl Investmen over g. be 90% drillin th; low stantially g factor will Sudan. to st Grow 80% ibutin c Foreca expected and South Dayrate contr nt Histori conn are Sudan g in low 70% Investme South Suda by the UN if e between of drillin Capacity; and sed % 60% Fleet s; low be 10% ging futur impo impact Sudan d Util venes dama ast to d not Implie ble Fleet (DW) petiti tially sanctions 50% is forec n woul poten have et Com 25 BH Capa ational ) ortio DHD nues, Mark 40% this prop Rigs Oper g (DW flict conti t plans. 2016; Rigs Drillin . with 30% safety investmen 20 ase ties t day rates ity and tmen to incre ver 20% y, secur looks tial inves howe uncertaint day rates; Sudan see poten exploration 10% th. South 15 Increasing d drive up would as of any grow ; this 29% as well 0% as a sign offset China 31% risks woul $8bn e will pipeline, 33% g declin invested in a new 10 35% 2016 drillin China an37% 2015 t. activities. n is subst 39% emen 2014 Outlook Sudan 34% 2013 e involv uction uction in Suda and uncer119 futur 5 32% 2012 Prod oil prod and South ast 130 ties 13 35% n. 2011 Sudan 140 ore the forec 14 rist activi productio 31% 40 2010 Onsh 150 between to impact 14 e in ver terro 40 2009 16 165 14 likely Tensions 40 0 2008 16 tial, howe cause a declin 179 12 this is 14 40 2007 17 may 12 15 escalate; n outlook. 2002-2012 40 29% 18 tainty 13 from 40 31% 19 over 101% 14 cal) productio 33% grew 20 by 9% 15 d (Verti / Hor) ,000 35% uction Drille 15 750-2 increase 37% Wells Drilled (Dev Oil prod t is set to tion Capacity range from 195% 39% Wells le Fleet d Utilisa rigs Fleet l (DW) and outpu period. increased to Sudan Capab ationa and Implie ucrate fleet, ast fleet has Mode uted Rigs Oper g (DW) gas prod - Rig Fleet the forec ns rig be attrib Rigs Drillin tion onshore in 2016 164: Sudan HP. Suda ; this can g Utilisa increasing begin ntly no Drillin Figure tively d. 2011 ast to is curre Sudans collec forec since ast perio There Sudan forec n. It is ing South South follow in Suda beyond the and ties tion . asing g activi al al drillin in 2011 and incre ,a : vertic ted/horizont endence lation drilled 2002indep Wells drilled : devia from g rig popu of low is g 362% 160 2016 drillin l Rigs Wells be ased ationa ht to 2015 Drilling ty grew by . Total drillin gh Oper ite incre n are thoug 2014 g activi in 2012 26% throu Desp 140 2013 Drillin e falling er by proportio 2012 befor large e furth 2011 2011 120 declin y. 2010 ast to qualit d. 2009 forec ast perio 100 2007 2008 2012-16. the forec over plateau 80 ast to is forec DHD 60
Sub-Sah
aran Afri
ca
Analysis
are forec
ast to
fall over
Oil -
Intern ational Unite ch Drilli ng Co 10% Hilon g Oil Servi Co 10%ce & Eng.
NOC
1 01 3 10
The rig fleet is 10% over expected to grow the forec 83 by by ast perio 2016. d, reach ing Drilling is expe of 1% cted to befor declin e rising e at a in 2016 rate . The main Deutag, rig contractor DWC s are KCA Drilling. Drilling and NRG 79% of the rig fleet is 1,000 -2,000 rated HP. between
KCA
Deutag
80%
Sinop
ec 100%
6)
No work 6 162: Niger 40% over rigs ident may chang ia - Estim ified ated Split e over the forec at present; 60% <50 0 of Mark this et Share ast perio Market 500 -999 Altho by Contr d. ugh indige Com actor 80% 100 0-14 Desp a large & Type nous ite indige petitiven contr proportio 150 0-19 99 ess nous ing the actor they are comp s comm n porta largest 100% 200 0-29 99 anies nt for relatively of the drillin and share intern comm cally in market g mark ational of the entra 300 0+ 99 andoperation new to the playe et, nts. market comp their rs and Lonestar anies market, Unknow share (54% for fewe poten have to 42% typiFigure Drillin tial of CNP r than increased ), n comm g are 163: Niger follow ten years Key Tren C. the exce enced as degra ing the ia - Fleet with 4% Sinopec is . drillin departure ds ding the the only Very g in 1993 ption havin HP of the challe local g NOC market. . nging environme Logistical major prese Increase nt challe reforms operating nt. Whilst exten nges environme in comp indus to the NOC continue sive contr try via etitio repre is grow actor and exter planning to to requi the much Nigerian petro nt s oppo n between to be ing prese sentation contr achie re pushe nal mobi leum is indige tracto rtunit ve the actor d throu debated PIB nous ies rs; KCA nce of intern falling, there s are cautio lisatio contr increasing for indige gh, have n of rigs. internal n havin ational Deut intern actor Nigeria ag is no g hamp with uncertaint still ational s rema conas intern nous Infras has conti ered in hesita longe playe y and tructure ational recen corru r. r the nued nt. Tension t grow ption only rema isolat to imple ins prob clamp with intern th. ed fields have ment down to hesita lematic been logist its ational ; howe ineffe ical prob inland regio ncy of in more know ver, meas ctive withd investmen operators ns still ledge lems move 2012 rawa ures has led with rig of busin thus far face ment t and Douglasstron coupled l. Unstable limite and empl ess pract g d. political subsequen Westwo with local ices is oyee t ers and climate imLNG od group stealing grow s kidna th previ challe of oil pping assoc nges work iated ously, for rema from pipel gas were large ines cause being ining reserves flared ear mark comp , so this of anies, grow ed for as well th, PIB investmen sector is World depending Nigeria t and Land , which to beco future Drilling 124 should me a gas expo Rig Mar allow rter in ket For future.
rating Ope
Rigs
There is a subst topdr antial ive-e numb er of with 66% nabled rigs in the of the Varco fleet equip market, , Canr ig and ped in oper Tesco ation. topdr ives all
(200
ecast
2012-2
016
40 20 0
Figure
165: Sudan
- Wells
Drilled
vs Rigs
Opera
tional
World
Land
Drilling
Rig Mar
ket For
ecast
2012-2
016
123
e: research@douglaswestwood.com
2012
Douglas-
Westwo
od
www.douglas-westwood.com
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Contents
Executive Summary and Conclusions Global Rig Fleet, Regional Summary & Conclusions Drivers and Indicators Market Drivers, Energy Demand, Exploration & Production, Oil & Gas Prices, Oil & Gas Price Sensitivities, Drilling, Complexity and Unconventional E&D, Political Considerations Methodology Rig Data & Analysis, Rig Data Assumptions, Country Analysis: Definitions, Country Analysis: Key Metrics Rig Equipment Manufacturers Key Components: Manufacturers, Rig Equipment: Manufacturer Ranking Global Analysis Global Outlook, Regional Rig Fleets, Global Rig Fleet: Identified Drilling Rigs
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