Gillies 1 Meghan Gillies PLSC 014: Question 2 9 November 2009 Word count: 1569 On September 26, 2008, the

first of three debates between presidential candidates, Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama, was held at the University of Mississippi. Though there were many global and national problems occurring at that time, the first debate was to focus on foreign policy. Foreign policy is one of the most important instruments of how the global community views and treats the United States; therefore it is essential that the president and the government create an effective foreign policy. There are many models in which foreign policy can be created from. Since foreign policy plays such an imperative role in politics it is extremely important that it is not only formed and executed carefully, but also communicated and explained effectively. One of the most successful and popular methods to model a foreign policy after is the Unitary Rational Actor Model (RAM). This model views policy choice as the purposive acts of a unified and single government based on logical means of achieving given goals. RAM instructs its actors to follow a distinct list when in the decision making process in order to come to a rational decision. The first step is to identify and specify the goals that the policy should create. If there is more than one goal, then they should be ranked according to need. It is imperative to consider all alternatives in means of achieving the goals. Next, the policy should select the final alternative calculated to maximize achievement of the goals. Then, take the necessary action to implement the decision. The final decision is to evaluate the consequences of the course of the action chosen. These

Gillies 2 steps have stimulated a unified, singular government. To RAM to effectively work, the government has to act as a single cell. The decisions have to be unitary because they are carefully calculated and planned out in order to maximize the probability that yield results. RAM, has proven to be quite successful throughout the course of history. However, the sound steps to creating the policy can often be deviated by a multitude of variables, known as the internal decision setting. The internal decisional setting is a choice in which the actor decides to respond to either the cures above or the cures below. The cues above refers to the strong leaders of a single ideological party. These cues from below refers to the public opinion, the demands of the organized interest groups, and the competition of elites. Public opinion arguably may be one of the most important reasons that RAM deviates from its course. The public opinion is defined how people feel about particular things. (Wilson 2008:153) The most important goal to any politician is to get re-elected. The only way these politicians can keep their jobs is if they do what the people want. Therefore, even if politicians believe their foreign policy to be sound, if the public does not agree then changes must be made. For example, when President Barack Obama campaigned to become the president, he promoted a more diplomatic foreign policy. He advocated the closure of Guantanamo Bay in Cuba to project an America that does not torture. He played his foreign policy to the public because the polls showed at the time that the public did not support the acts of interrogations by the previous administration (Henry 2009). Interest groups play a heavy hand in affecting the way foreign policy is handled. An interest group is an organization of people sharing a common interest or goal that seeks to

Gillies 3 influence the making of public policy (Wilson 2008: 263) . Interest groups look for ways to maximize their welfare by using their collective voice to provide both information and money. As a group of individuals pushing a certain issue, interest groups often lobby information to politicians that help their cause. Public officials often depend on lobbyists to supply them not only with information, but also the political cues. Political cues are signals telling a legislator what values are at stake in a vote, and how that issue fits into his or her own political views on party agenda (Wilson 2008:274). Interest groups also use the power of the purse to encourage decision-making within their own values. Campaigns cannot be won without monetary support, and legislators are always running to keep their jobs. Therefore, the public officials will often compromise or bargain with interest groups, may times a way from rational, to secure these funds. Though RAM, advertizes bring the government into one, unitary front, it can also bring out the competition of the elites. Knowing that only one foreign policy can be made, the individual parties try their hardest as to make sure their goals get met. One way the party not in power can in fact demonstrate power is to put pressure on the current administration. If the incumbent party does not do the best thing in the eyes of the people, the opposing party will look like the hero and likely take over power (Bueno de Mesquita 200:30). For example, when the War in Iraq in 2003 began with bipartisanship. Democrat leaders such as Senator John Kerry and Senator Hilary Clinton both voted with Republicans in favor of sending troops into Iraq. However, as the war failed to meet expectations, this bipartisan fell and finger pointing increased. The Republicans were forced to either change their policies or loose power.

Gillies 4 Once a foreign policy is developed by an administration it is important to communicate it effectively to the public so that they may understand it when decisions have to be made. Bureaucratic politics and incrementalism all can contribute to a better awareness of foreign policy decision-making. Bureaucratic politics is an important factor is deciding how decisions should be made within the foreign policy. The foreign policy is a result of an intense competition among bureaucrats bargaining to each get their voices heard. Bureaucrats each spur from their own agency and department with a multitude of different interests, all that plays a role with the foreign policy and natural security. However, most agencies are only concerned with their own personal gains causing a great amount of bureaucratic infighting. This infighting places an emphasis on minimizing the costs and maximizing their own welfare. Bureaucrats often try to label their own interests as the national interest into the policy. This characterization of interests allows the bureaucrats to bargain with the administration. This pulling and hauling allows their voice to be heard on many key issues within policy choice. Bureaucrats are not the only factor is decision-making policy, but also incrementalism. Incrementalism explains that those policy options that are given to the most serious consideration will usually be those that differ from the present policy in only marginal ways. These changes will be gradual so that they will not differ too strongly from the present policy. This allows the decision making process to be simplified because those making the decision only need to recognize the differences between the new and former policy (Cashman 2009:82).

Gillies 5 Incrementalism allows the public to understand how decisions are made within the foreign policy because of its benefits to society. Incrementalism avoids making major mistakes because the gradual changes allow the policy makers to choose a proven policy with only slight changes. This avoids making a risking policy that could contain severe consequences if it goes south (Cashman 2009:83). Once a policy is communicated, the relay of information is not done. The policy must then be explained to the people. The why is not to be overlooked because it gives the intentions and goals of the administration. The most effective way of explaining decisionmaking is the cognitive method, or the Prospect Theory. The Prospect Theory explains why actors act irrational and deviate off course. Advocates of the theory believe that actors are complex individuals, and therefore are often influenced by outside sources. It is hard to follow uniform steps that the rational choice provides for a variety of different circumstances. Three major reasons for which the Prospect Theory states actors deviate from rationale are social environment, past history and personality factors. Social environment serves as the reference point for many of the decisions being made. A variety of elements must be observed to make a decision. The reference point can help achieve the Prospect Theorys main goal satisfying over optimization. To effectively carry out this goal states worry more about losses than possible gains. Therefore, looking at all of the social climates during the time can help avoid going to an unnecessary war in order to gain something. While on the other hand, the rational choice only takes on the point of view as the defender, which leaves other areas vulnerable.

Gillies 6 Past history and personality factors are also beneficial in explaining decisionmaking process because the prospect theory argues that the rationale is not generally the dominating method of choice. Past history shows that many foreign policies of states often deviate from rationale. This supports the fact that humans have complex brain function that cannot mold into a uniform rational behavior. On December 7, 1941, a day that will forever live in infamy was a day when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. Before this event, Japan began to encroach deeper into China in order to control resources or land outside their own territory. However, the United States responded to the event by putting a halt on all trade with Japan. This action caused the Japanese leaders to attack the naval base. They felt that this attack would motivate the United States to withdraw from the Pacific, because Japan did not want to confront the actuality of losing control over China. This act has been judged as irrational because it is not in the United States past history to give in to terroristic threats. (Jervis 1994:167) Foreign policy is one of the most important decisions a president can make in his terms as leader of the free world. This policy will shape not only the way the world views America, but also a major factor of how his presidency will be remembered. Therefore, it is crucial that the policy is made with the utmost confidence.

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Works Cited Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. Principals of International Politics: People Power,Preferences and Perceptions. 4th ed. 2000. 29-31. Cashman, Greg. "Chapter 4: Governmental Decision Making." What Cause War: An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. New York: Lexington Books, 1993. 78-99. Henry, Ed. "Obama to order Guantanamo Bay Prison Closed. CNN News. 12 Jan. 2009. Web. 03 Nov. 2009. <http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/12/obama.gitmo/index.html>. Jervis, Robert. "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemna." World Politics: Interests, Interactions, Institutions. Vol. 30. The Johns Hopkins UP, 1994. 167-214. Wilson, James, and John DiIilio. "Chapter 11: Interest Groups." American Government: Institution and Policies. 11th ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2008. 258-85. Wilson, James Q., and John J. DiIulio. "Chapter 7: Public Opinion." American Government: Institution and Policies. 11th ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2008. 152-68.