STATISTICAL METHODS REPORT

TOPIC: ANALYSIS OF EMISSION LEVELS

REPORT BY: PRIYANSH BANTHIA 305 KEWAL BAXI 306 ANIRUDDH CHAKRAVORTY 307 PRATEEK CHAURASIA 308 AAKASH CHHARIA 309 BHAVYYA DEDHIA 310 MBA (TECH) MECHANICAL, (2ND YEAR)

INDEX:
1. ABOUT THE REPORT 2. DATA 3. OVERALL ANALYSIS (GROUPED DATA): A. CENTRAL TENDENCY MEASURES FOR THE GROUPED DATA B. DISPERSION AND RELATIVE DISPERSION FOR THE GROUPED DATA C. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION, OGIVES AND PROBABLITY DISTRIBUTION D. CENTRAL TENDENCY MEASURES E. INTERVAL ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS 4. RESULT

ABOUT THE REPORT:

We have considered emission of two highly toxic gases namely, CO and NO x .We have taken average emissions of 40 regions across Delhi. Thus the main data consists of two gases 1 and 2 and their emissions in g/m3 . We have analysed the data of 40 regions for 2 different years and found out the various aspects of emissions at different levels.The overall analysis has been done by grouping the data and finding their mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, coefficient of variation, probability distribution,joint and marginal probability, interval estimation and hypothesis ( two tailed) as well as o-gives, histograms and bar graphs.

DATA:Sr.No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Year 2003 1200 1700 5500 5900 5500 3800 4260 1200 7280 1300 2200 8000 5128 1500 5826 5200 4200 1500 1300 3000 1300 5800 4160 3200 3620 1200 6200 6531 5500 3500 4072 4600 3700 5800 3400 1500 6800 6800 1700 2300 Year 2005 3800 3000 4000 2300 4000 1800 879 3789 1153 4800 2299 3000 1572 4200 788 4200 3200 2800 6112 2418 1916 1708 1800 4000 1077 1611 7017 1481 3761 934 991 3000 3000 4900 887 4800 4000 4903 1065 2200

Sr.No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Year 2003 148 76 164 125 146 118 73 140 68.1 150 152 154 76 75 102 188 98 135 174 110 158 156 137 140 55 144 115 172 106 159 44 92 183 96 152 120 124 138 234 125

Year 2005 134 146 138 116 124 128 41 69 53 128 129 136 81 135 81 136 146 128 138 90 132 127 136 126 37 85 39 176 85 131 30 112 128 124 88 128 142 106 202 118

OVERALL ANALYSIS OF GAS 1 AND GAS 2:

1. FOR GAS 1:
CO value in g/m3 1200 -2400 2400-3600 3600-4800 4800-6000 6000-7200 7200-8400

FREQ(f)
13 4 8 9 4 2

Mid Point(x)
1800 3000 4200 5400 6600 7800

f.x
23400 12000 33600 48600 26400 15600 159600

CUMULATIVE FREQ 13 17 25 34 38 40

PROB. DIST/REL. FREQ 0.325

0.1 0.2 0.225 0.1 0.05

CUMULATIVE RELATIVE FREQ

0.325 0.425 0.625 0.85 0.95 1

40

700-1900 1900-3100 3100-4300 4300-5500 5500-6700 6700-7900

14 11 10 3 1 1 40

1300 2500 3700 4900 6100 7300

18200 27500 37000 14700 6100 7300 110800

14 25 35 38 39
40

0.35 0.275 0.25 0.075 0.025 0.025

0.35 0.625 0.875 0.95 0.975 1

2. FOR GAS 2:
NOx value in g/m3 40-75 75-110 110-145 145-180 180-215 215-250

FREQ(f)
4 8 13 12 2 1 40

Mid Point(x)
57.5 92.5 127.5 162.5 197.5 232.5

f.x
230 740 1657.5 1950 395 232.5 5205

CUMULATIVE FREQ
4 12 25 37 39 40

PROB. DIST/REL. FREQ

0.1 0.2 0.325 0.3 0.05 0.025

CUMULATIVE RELATIVE FREQ

0.1 0.3 0.625 0.925 0.975 1

30-60 60-90 90-120 120-150 150-180 180-210

5 6 5 22 1 1 40

45 75 105 135 165 195

225 450 525 2970 165 195 4530

5 11 16 38 39 40

0.125 0.15 0.125 0.55 0.025 0.025

0.125 0.275 0.4 0.95 0.975 1

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY FOR THE ABOVE GROUPED DATA: 1. MEAN:

Mean is simply the average of the data. For grouped data, the mean is given by: = f*x f Thus, for the above grouped data: A) GAS 1:
2003 3990 B) GAS 2:
2003 130.125 2005 113.25

2005 2770

2. MEDIAN:
The middlemost or most central item in the set of numbers is the median. For grouped data, the median is given by: m= (((n+1)/2 (f+1)) * w) + Lm fm Thus, for the above grouped data: A) GAS 1:
2003 3975 B) GAS 2:
2003 131 2005 125

2005 2500

3. MODE :
Mode is a value that is repeated most often in the data set. For grouped data, the mode is given by: M = Lmo + (d1/(d1+d2))w Thus, for the above grouped data: A) GAS 1:
2003 1909 B) GAS 2: 2005 1688

2003
139

2005
133

MEASURES OF DISPERSION AND RELATIVE DISPERSION FOR THE ABOVE GROUPED DATA: 1. STANDARD DEVIATION AND VARIANCE:
Deviation is the distance between the mean and a value. Every population has a variance. The standard deviation is the square root of the average of the squared distances of the observations from the mean. The variance and standard deviation for the above data is given by:

A) GAS 1: 2003 3519900 1876.139654 2005 2123100 1457.0861

Variance standard deviation

B) GAS 2:

Variance standard deviation

2003 1616.234375 40.20241753

2005 1304.4375 36.11699738

2. COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION:
A relative measure that will give the magnitude of the deviation relative to the magnitude of the mean. The co-efficient of variation for the above data is given by:
C.V. = (/)*100

A) GAS 1:
2003 coefficient of variation 0.47021044 2005 0.5260239

B) GAS 2:
2003 coefficient of variation 0.308952296 2005 0.318913884

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF:

A) GAS 1 IN 2003:

FREQ(f)
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 FREQ(f)

B) GAS 1 IN 2005:

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

A) GAS 2 IN 2003:

FREQ(f)
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 40-75 75-110 110-145 145-180 180-215 215-250 FREQ(f)

B) GAS 2 IN 2005:

25 20 15 10 5 0 30-60 60-90 90-120 120-150 150-180 180-210

OGIVES:
LESS THAN OGIVE: A) GAS 1 IN 2003:
2003 0 13 17 25 34 38 40

<1200 <2400 <3600 <4800 <6000 <7200 <8500

B) GAS 1 IN 2005:
2005 0 14 25 35 38 39 40

<700 <1900 <3100 <4300 <5500 <6700 <8000

A) GAS 2 IN 2003:
<40 <75 <110 <145 <180 <215 <250 2003 0 4 12 25 37 39 40

B) GAS 2 IN 2005:
2005 0 5 11 16 38 39 40

<30 <60 <90 <120 <150 <180 <210

GREATER THAN OGIVE: A) GAS 1 IN 2003:

2003 >1200 >2400 >3600 >4800 >6000 >7200 >8500

40 27 23 15 6 2 0

B) GAS 1 IN 2005:
2005 >700 >1900 >3100 >4300 >5500 >6700 >8000

40 26 15 5 2 1 0

A) GAS 2 IN 2003:
2003 40 36 28 15 3 1 0

>40 >75 >110 >145 >180 >215 >250

B) GAS 2 IN 2005:
2005 40 35 29 24 2 1 0

>30 >60 >90 >120 >150 >180 >210

LESS THAN OGIVE A) GAS 1 IN 2003:

2003
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <1200 <2400 <3600 <4800 <6000 <7200 <8500 2003

B) GAS 1 IN 2005:

2005
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <700 <1900 <3100 <4300 <5500 <6700 <8000 2005

A) GAS 2 IN 2003:

2003
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <40 <75 <110 <145 <180 <215 <250 2003

B) GAS 2 IN 2005:

2005
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <30 <60 <90 <120 <150 <180 <210 2005

GREATER THAN OGIVE

A) GAS 1 IN 2003:

2003
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 >1200 >2400 >3600 <4800 <6000 >7200 >8500 2003

B) GAS 1 IN 2005:

2005
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 >700 >1900 >3100 >4300 >5500 >6700 >8000 2005

A) GAS 2 IN 2003:

2003
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 >40 >75 >110 >145 >180 >215 >250 2003

B) GAS 2 IN 2005:

2005
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 >30 >60 >90 >120 >150 >180 >210 2005

QUESTIONS BASED ON O-GIVES:

Q1.In 2005, if it is assumed that safe emission level for Gas1 is 4200g/m3 for Gas 2 is 120g/ m3. Using the o-gives find out the number of regions which are not vulnerable to these emissions. Ans: From less-than o-gives of 2005, we find that 29 regions are not vulnerable to Gas1 and 15 regions are not vulnerable to Gas2.

Q2.The optimum level of CO present in daily households should be 3100-4200 g/m3 . Find the number of regions lying in this interval. Consider the above information for the year 2005. Ans:From the greater than o-give, subtracting the values for >3100 and >4200.We get 15 - 5 = 10 regions,which lie in the optimum level.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION:
A) GAS 1 IN 2003:

0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0

B) GAS 1 IN 2005:

0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0

A) GAS 2 IN 2003:

PROB. DIST/REL. FREQ

0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 PROB. DIST/REL. FREQ

Data

B) GAS 2 IN 2005:

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 30-60 60-90 90-120 120-150 150-180 180-210

Questions based on Joint and Marginal Probability:

Q1.In 2003,If it is assumed that the safe emission level for Gas1 is 3.5 ppm (i.e. 4200g/m3)and for Gas2 is0.1ppm(i.e. 127.5g/m3).Find the probability that a region is vulnerable to both types of emissions. Ans: Let P(A): Probability that a region is vulnerable from Gas1 P(B): Probability that a region is vulnerable from Gas2 Therefore, P(AB) = P(A)*P(B) =(1-0.625)*(1-0.625) = 0.140625 or 14.0625%

Q2.The general level of NOx emissions from industrial regions is 180250g/m3.How many regions in Delhi suffer from such high level of emissions? Ans. 3 regions i.e P(A)= 3/40 = 0.075

ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS OF THE ABOVE DATA:

An estimator is a sample statistics that is used to make a scientific guess about an unknown population parameter An estimate of a population parameter may be expressed in two ways:

Point estimate. A point estimate of a population parameter is a single value of a statistic. For example, the sample mean x is a point estimate of the population mean . Similarly, the sample proportion p is a point estimate of the population proportion P.

Interval estimate. An interval estimate is defined by two numbers, between which a population parameter is said to lie. For example, a < x < b is an interval estimate of the population mean . It indicates that the population mean is greater than a but less than b.

Confidence Intervals The confidence level describes the uncertainty of a sampling method. The statistic and the margin of error define an interval estimate that describes the precision of the method. The interval estimate of a confidence interval is defined by the sample statistic + margin of error.

PROBLEM FOR INTERVAL ESTIMATION:

Suppose that we check for emission levels of CO in 15 regions in 2005 and discover that the average emissions are 2770g/m3. We know that the standard deviation for the emissions is 1457 g/m3. What can we conclude about the average emissions with a 95% confidence level? Solution: We need to use the table to find the z-score associated to the probability of .025 (there is .025 to the left and .025 to the right). We arrive at z = -1.96. Now we solve for x: x=(/sqrt(n)) * sqrt (N-n/N-1) x= 301.2 g/m3. x - 2770 -1.96 = 301.2

Hence x - 2770 = -590 We say that 590 is the margin of error. We have that a 95% confidence interval for the mean clarity is (2180, 3360) In other words there is a 95% chance that the mean clarity is between 3360 and 2180.

PROBLEM FOR TWO TAILED HYPOTHESIS:

Q.A sample of 8 region for Gas1 has x = 2946 g/m3 and =1100 g/m3 . Use these values to test whether or not the mean will lie in the rejection region or the acceptance region.Take significance level=0.1 Solution Step 1: Set the null and alternative hypotheses H0 : = 2770 H1 : 2770 Step 2: Calculate the test statistic x=(/sqrt(n)) * sqrt (N-n/N-1) x= 467 g/m3. Z=mean- / (x) =2946-2770/ (467)= 0.37 Step 3: Set Rejection Region Considering the total rejection area to be 0.1 .The acceptance region thus is 0.9 (i.e. 0.45 on either side of the mean). From the normal distribution table, the appropriate z value for 0.45 of the area under the curve is 1.67. Step 4: Conclude We can see that I 0.37I= 0.37<1.67, thus our test statistic is in the acceptance region. Therefore, we accept the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative

RESULT:

Mono-nitrogen oxides and carbon mono-oxide are two highly toxic gases. Carbon monoxide is a temporary atmospheric pollutant in some urban areas, chiefly from the exhaust of internal combustion engines, but also from incomplete combustion of various other fuels (including wood, coal, charcoal, oil,).Carbon monoxide is absorbed through breathing and enters the blood stream through gas exchange in the lungs. It is harmful for various biological activities of our body. Atmospheric NOx eventually forms nitric acid, which contributes to acid rain. Precautions: 1. The use of exhaust gas recirculation and catalytic converters in motor vehicle engines have significantly reduced NOx emissions. 2. Avoiding any gasoline-powered engines in enclosed spaces and usage of CO alarms can prevent haphazard effects of this gas. In our report we have analysed the spread of emission levels across the city and using various statistical concepts of probability and estimation we have found out the regions which are most affected by these emissions and those which are in optimum range.

BIBLIOGRAPHY:

1.http://cpcb.nic.in/Air_Quality_Delhi.php 2.http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/DOIT_Pollution/pollution/home
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_standard 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx#Regulation_and_emission_control_technologies

THANK YOU