Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities Chana Black Pepper Turmeric Jeera Soybean Refine Soy Oil & CPO Sugar Kapas

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

*Weekly Performance for February contract; Turmeric and Kapas - April 2013 contract, Jeera and Chilli- March contract, Mentha- January.

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Gold
Weekly Price Performance
Spot gold prices gained 0.4 percent week on week. The yellow metal touched a weekly high of $ 1,678.6/oz and closed at $ 1,662.4 per ounce on Friday. On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 0.3 percent lower week on week due to appreciation in the rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs. 30,757/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 30,625/ 10gms. Spot gold prices gained on the back of positive market sentiments after European Central Bank President said that the Euro region is expected to recover in 2013. This raised hopes that the debt concerns in the region might be stemmed. Weakness in the US Dollar Index also added to the gains in the yellow metal prices. Further, stimulus measures announced by the Bank of Japan also pushed prices upwards. However, prices witnessed selling pressure on Friday due to weak data from the China which led to risk aversion in the global markets. In the domestic markets , gold prices declined due to appreciation in the rupee.

Factors that influenced gold prices

Outlook
In the coming week, we expect gold prices to remain weak due to physical buying by the Asian buyers along with announcement of stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan. Hopes of revival of the European economy is also expected to support an upside in the gold prices. In the domestic markets, appreciation in the rupee might restrict sharp gains in the gold prices on MCX. Spot Gold : Support $1,644/1,625 Resistance $1,680/1,698. (CMP: 1,669.30) Sell MCX Gold Feb between 30900-30930, SL 31,061, Target 30645/30500 (CMP: 30,812)

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Silver

Weekly Price Performance

Spot silver prices ended 0.7 percent higher week on week. The white metal touched a weekly high of $ 30.91/oz and closed at $ 30.4 per oz on Friday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 0.3 percent and closed at Rs. 58,105/kg on Friday and touched a weekly high of Rs. 58,730/ kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee however, restricted sharp gains in the silver prices on MCX. Silver prices gained tracing strength in the spot gold prices and weakness in the US Dollar Index. However, weakness in the base metals pack restricted gains in the white metal prices. Positive manufacturing data from the US, UK, China also added to the gains in the silver prices in the last week. Stimulus measures announced by the Bank of Japan to boost the economy also supported an upside in the silver prices.

Factors that influenced silver prices

Outlook
Silver prices in the coming week is expected to trade firm on the back of strength in the base metals pack and positive economic data from the major economies. Weakness in the DX is also expected to support an upside in the silver prices. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Rupee might restrict gains in the MCX Silver prices. Spot Silver : Support $ 29.86/29.27 30.10) MCX Silver : Support Rs.57680/57180 58,402) Resistance $30.99/31.53 (CMP: Resistance Rs.58,710/59,470(CMP:

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Copper

Weekly Price Performance

Copper prices declined 1.4 percent in the last week. In the domestic markets MCX copper declined 1.2 percent week on week due to appreciation in the rupee along with weak industrial output of the nation. LME Copper inventories increased 3.45 percent in last week and stood at 330, 450 tonnes on Friday as against 319,400 tonnes on 04th January 2013. Copper inventories at warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 1.3 percent to 2,09,096 tn in the w/e 11th January, 2013. Copper prices witnessed a decline due to rise in the copper inventories along with dull demand due to ongoing lunar year. Expectation of further stimulus measures to be announced by the Bank of Japan to boost the economy. Weakness in the DX however cushioned fall in the copper prices. In the domestic market, appreciation in Indian rupee exerted downside pressure on the MCX. Copper prices in the coming week is expected to remain firm due signs of revival in the major nations along with optimism of rise in the GDP in China, the major consumer of the metal. Further , hopes of revival of European economy is also expected to support an upside in the copper prices. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure on the copper prices on MCX. Sell MCX Copper February between 447-448, SL-451.60, Target -442/440 MCX Copper: Support Rs. 442.70/ 439.90 Resistance Rs. 447.50/451.30 (CMP: 445.60)

Copper Inventories

Factors that influenced copper prices

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | December 24, 2012

Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.23 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices increased 4.19 percent and closed at Rs. 4,913 /bbl on Friday. Prices gained taking cues from firmness in the international prices along with depreciation in the Indian rupee.

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, US crude oil inventories declined as expected by 964,000 barrels to 371.60 million barrels for the week ending on 14th December 2012. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.21 million barrels to 219.30 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles slipped by 1.09 million barrels to 117.0 million barrels for the last week.
Expectations of rise in the demand in the final 3 months of 2012 to average of 90.5 million barrels per day, 0.5 percent higher than earlier forecast by the IEA. Favorable data from the US and Chinese economy raised hopes that the demand might improve from the key consuming nations in the coming months. Weakness in the DX in the early part of the week Decline in the US Crude oil inventories. However, no resolution to the US fiscal cliff issue as negotiations stalled capped sharp gains. Crude oil prices are expected to gain strength due to favorable data from the US and China. Concerns of fiscal cliff issue in the US is expected to however, cap sharp gains in the prices. In Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee will act as a supportive factor for the crude prices on MCX. Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $87.50/85.20 Resistance $91.30/93.60 (CMP: 86.42) Buy MCX Crude Oil Jan between 4850-4860, SL - 4770, Target 4980 (CMP: 4893)

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

DX/ INR

Weekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) fell 1.2 percent week on week. The Indian Rupee appreciated week on week and ended 0.1 percent higher . The index settled higher due to rise in the risk appetite in the global markets as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the economy is expected to recover in 2013.This created positive market sentiments and reduced the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index.. Better start of the US corporate earnings of the fourth quarter also supported the market sentiments. The currency appreciated due to sustained capital inflows along with positive global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX also led appreciation in the currency. However, the currency depreciated on Friday due to decline in the industrial output of the nation and rise in the trade deficit due to decline in the exports. Trade deficit of the nation narrowed to $17.7 billion in December from $19.3 billion in November. Exports, however witnessed a decline and stood at $24.88 billion in December . Imports rose 6.3 percent and stood at $42.5 billion. For the current month 2013 FII inflows totaled at Rs 8,813.30 crores till 11th January 2013. While year to date basis, net capital inflows for the year 2013 stood at Rs. 8813.30 crores. We expect rupee to appreciate due to positive global market sentiments along with hopes of interest rates cut by the RBI in its policy meeting in the later of the month. Sustained capital foreign institutional inflows is also likely to appreciate the currency. USD/INR MCX January Support 54.2/53.6 Resistance 55.3/55.95 (CMP: 54.60) US Dollar Index: Support 79/78.5 Resistance 80/80.7 (CMP: 79.41)

Factors that influenced movement in the DX

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

FII Inflows

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Euro

Weekly Price Performance

Euro gained 2.1 percent week on week . The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3365 and closed at 1.3343 on Friday. The Euro gained as the European Central Bank said that the region is expected to grow in the later part of 2013 raising hopes that the debt crisis in the regions is likely to be stemmed. Further , successful bond auction by the Spain also added to the gains in the currency. European Central bank kept the interest rates steady at 0.75 percent. French Industrial production rose to 0.5 percent in the month of November as compared to a decline of -0.6 percent in October . German industrial output increased to 0.2 percent in the month of November as compared to -2 percent in October. German Factory Orders declined to 1.8 percent in the month of November as against a rise of 3.8 percent in October. Retail Sales in the Euro region witnessed a rise of 0.1 percent in the month of October as against a decline of 0.7 percent in September. We expect the Euro to trade firm due to positive global market sentiments triggered by hopes of that the debt concerns of the region might be stemmed along with weakness in the DX. Expectation of favorable data from the region is likely to support an upside in the currency.

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

News

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.32/1.306 1.3385) Resistance 1.355/1.369 (CMP:

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Chana
Weekly Price Performance
Chana February contract which remained firm during the initial part of the week on concerns over extreme winters in North, declined in the later part on account of ease in supplies in the domestic markets amid continuous flow of imported Chana into the country. Improved acreage and thereby higher output expectations also exerted downside pressure on the Chana prices last week. Total pulses acreage as on 11th Jan 2013 stood at 140.87 lakh ha, up by 0.4% yoy. As on 4th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was down by 0.4%. Chana sowing is almost complete and acreage so far is at 91.68 lakh ha, up by 5.4% as on 11th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In Maharashtra Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013 vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. While in AP it is up at 7.14 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013, up by 26%. (Source: State farm dept) Chana fresh crop arrival have started in Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh and about to commence in Maharashtra. While, harvesting in MP, the largest Chana producing belt shall commence in February 2012. Although the Farm ministry has targeted higher rabi pulses output, particularly Chana at 7.9 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn in previous year, the ultimate output would depend on the weather conditions in major growing belts. Chana may decline further on expectations of arrivals from Maharashtra to commence soon. However, any adverse report with respect to weather may bring a sharp rebound in the prices. Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3520-3560, SL -3640, Target - 3400 / 3380

Chana sowing up 5.4% as on 11th Jan

Arrivals to commence soon in Maharashtra

Weather to play a crucial role during next 2-3 weeks

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Black Pepper

Weekly Price Performance

Pepper Futures opened the week on a negative note on commencement of arrivals of the new crop. However, prices recovered sharply due to strong demand from Tamil Nadu ahead of Pongal. Also winter demand supported prices. Prices have corrected over the last few weeks after the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the pepper stored in six warehouses at Kochi of about 8,000 tonnes. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.45% and 1.72% higher w-o-w. Indian Pepper is being offered at $7,800/tn (c&f, Europe). Vietnam and Lampong Asta was quoted at $7,000 while MLV Asta was at $6,950-7,000Feb/Mar. Averages daily arrivals stood at 17 tn while offtakes stood at 17 tn last week. According to market sources, Pepper production is expected around 63,000 tn in 2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 availability at 70,000 tn.
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

Global updates
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in 2011. Vietnam pepper exports during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt. Pepper production from Vietnam decreased to 1 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against 32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%. Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Low stocks and arrivals of good quality pepper is expected to support prices at lower levels. There are no valid stocks available on the exchange as the after Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of about 8,000 tn pepper due to quality issues. Higher output expectations coupled with weak export demand for Indian pepper may also pressurize prices. NCDEX Feb Pepper Trend Sideways. S2- 33580, S1- 34780, R1- 36810, R2- 37640.

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Source: Reuters & Angel Research

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Turmeric

Weekly Price Performance

Turmeric Futures corrected last week on account of profit taking at higher levels. Higher carryover stocks also pressurized prices at higher levels. Prices have gained sharply over the last five preceding weeks due to buying by the stockists coupled with good quality arrivals. Lower output expectations also kept the prices firm. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year. The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them. Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode. According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.09% and 3.27% lower w-o-w. Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-55 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tns. Turmeric prices may recover from lower levels and trade on a positive note this week due to demand from stockists. Demand from North India is also expected to support prices. Traders expect export orders also to start in the coming weeks. Good quality arrivals may also boost prices. However, commencement of harvest of the early crop in the coming days may cap sharp upside. Huge carryover stocks may also put some pressure on prices and may cap sharp upside. Buy NCDEX April Turmeric between 6350-6400, SL-6050, Target 6830/6890
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Weekly Price Performance

Jeera Futures corrected for the third consecutive week due to subdued demand in the domestic markets coupled with higher sowing data. Sowing in Gujarat reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013. Last three years average sowing is around 3.189 lk ha. Total stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.57% and 4.35% lower w-o-w. Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than 29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside. Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011. According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved. Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They have stopped shipments. There are some export enquiries at lower levels. According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets. Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,875-2,900/tn (c&f). Jeera prices may extend last weeks losses on account of higher sowing coupled with subdued demand. However, prices may find support if export demand improve at lower levels. Farmers may not sell their stocks at such low prices. Sell NCDEX March Jeera between 14200-14300, SL-14800., Target 13480/13370.

Jeera

Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Production of Jeera in India

3
Production, in Lakh Tonnes

International Scenario

2
2 1

Outlook

1
0

Weekly Levels

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Soybean

Weekly price performance

NCDEX Soybean extended the losses further and settled 0.7% lower w-o-w on weak demand from the Solvent extractors amid crushing disparity. CBOT soybean recovered marginally w-o-w on account of short coverings. Rabi oilseeds sowing which was up by 2% as on Jan 4th, is now up by 3% at 8.41 mn ha. The sowing of mustard, is up 3.5% at 6.69 mn ha. Soy meal exports fell by 34% in December to 5.10 lakh tn, according to SOPA. The country had exported 7,78,382 tn in December 2011. During the first three months of the current oil year (Oct-Sep), exports declined by 27% to 10.78 lakh t. Argentina soy planting advanced quickly last week covering 90% of targeted 19.7 mn ha. Harvesting to commence in March and is projected at 55 mn tn or higher, Global soybean production is projected at 269.4 million tons, up 1.7 million with gains in the United States and Brazil only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The Brazil soybean crop is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 82.5 million reflecting record area and improving yield prospects. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, down 1 million mainly due to lower projected area resulting from excessive moisture throughout much of the central growing area. After declining sharply since last four consecutive sessions, Soybean prices are expected to recover in the current week as supplies are dwindling in the domestic markets. Also, demand is expected to emerge at lower levels. Buy NCDEX Soybean Feb between 3130-3170, SL -3050, Target - 3290 / 3320

Rabi oilseed planting 3 percent up as on 11h Jan

Soy meal exports slips 34% in Dec

Argentine floods recede, farmers move fast to plant soy

USDA estimates higher global Soybean production in January crop report

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

Weekly price performance
Entire Edible oil complex remained under downside pressure last week except for ref soy oil which gained 2.7 percent in Feb contract and 3.7 percent in Jan contract. CPO prices at MCX and at BMD settled 2.5% and 4.2% lower respectively the exports during Jan 01 to jan10 declined sharply which was expected to improve after the export duty cut. Further Malaysian palm oil board estimated further increase in stock position in December 2012. CBOT Soy oil settled 1.09% lower w-o-w taking cues from weak soybean futures. MPOB data released on Thursday revealed further increase in stock piles by 2.4% in December, while exports declined 0.7% in December. Malaysian crude palm oil production this year will rise marginally to 18.9 million tonnes compared to 18.8 million tonnes in 2012 as yields improve, an industry regulator said on Monday. output is still lagging far behind that of top supplier Indonesia where production is expected to hit 27 million tonnes this year. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at 783,091 tn in December, boosted mainly by poor domestic supply of alternatives and attractive overseas prices due to record stocks in key supplier Malaysia. Total vegetable oil import stood at 901,092 tonnes in Dec 2012, up from 700,371 tonnes. India's 2012-13 edible oil imports seen at record 10.31 mn tn, up 5.4% on year an industry expert said in glob oil conference. India's 2012/13 palm oil imports seen at 8.1 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn yr earlier. Sell NCDEX Refined Soya Oil Feb between 715-720, SL -738, Target - 689 / 685 Sell MCX CPO Feb between 446-451, SL -460, Target - 433 / 430

Global Scenario

Domestic Scenario

Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Sugar

Weekly Price Performance

NCDEX Sugar February contract settled 0.6% lower w-o-w amid sufficient supplies, however, have shown some signs of recovery in the domestic markets. Liffe Sugar witnessed long liquidation and settled 0.95 higher w-o-w. Drought in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka has hurt fresh sugarcane planting, which may affect cane availability for sugar year 2013-14 starting October. Cane planting in Maharashtra and Karnataka which takes place during November to February, is hit by deficient rains. Even the adsali planting or the 18-month crop, which gets planted by August, has been lower by about a third in Maharashtra this year. Mills in the country have produced 7.96 mln tn sugar during Oct-Dec, up around 2.6% from the 7.76 mln tn output a year ago. The association will review the country's overall sugar production estimates for 2012-13 by mid-January, after the second satellite mapping. According to mn tn The 2012-13 cane crush was at 531.35 mn tn as of Dec. 31, up from 491.16 mn tn crushed year ago. The 2013/-4 crush will likely surpass the current one. Sugar prices may recover in the coming weeks as demand is seen emerging at lower levels. Reports of lower cane planting in some parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka may also bring some stability in the prices. Further, it is expected that government will take some measure to control prices, which are below the cost of production levels, from falling further so as to protect the interest of the millers. Buy NCDEX SUGAR Feb between 3235-3265, SL -3190, Target - 3330 / 3350

2013-14 Sugarcane planting to hurt amid drought

India Oct Dec sugar output up 2.6% on year at 7.96 mln tn

Brazil cane crush almost complete at 531.35 mln T

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | January 14, 2013

Kapas/Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
Kapas futures which gained during the early part of the week amid short covering, pared losses later on as supplies are sufficient while demand from the millers is comparatively lower, especially from south Indian millers. ICE Cotton futures gained 0.75% on expectations of lower US cotton plantings next season and cut in US cotton end stocks. Demand for ginned cotton especially from south Indian mills which was lower amid power shortages, may improve due to fall in prices & higher cotton yarn export demand for cotton yarn. Although, Cotton advisory Board has pegged cotton output lower at 334 lakh bales, Cotton Association of India (CAI) said that Cotton output in 2012-13 is expected to be around 350 lk bales, while the consumption is likely to be around 265 lk bales. The average plantings forecast for the world's third-largest cotton producer was 10.1 mn acres, which would be down 18%from last year. USDA, in its January 2013 monthly crop report estimated reduced its U.S carryover by 11% to 4.8 mn 480-lb bales while it estimated 2.5% increase in global end stocks at 81.7 mn bales amid higher production and comparatively lower consumption. Output is raised mainly in China and Australia, while global consumption is revised down slightly, mainly reflecting a reduction for India. Kapas prices are expected to consolidate in the current week. No major downside is expected as farmers may hold their produce below these levels and demand from the millers is expected to pick up. However, sharp upside may also be limited as supplies are sufficient to meet the domestic and export demand. Sell NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 940-960, SL -1000, Target - 880
Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey

Higher Cotton Yarn Export registration to boost demand for cotton

U.S. 2013 cotton sowing survey- Reuters

USDA revise upward global end stocks estimates

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | | January 14, 2013

Thank You!

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