International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 87 (2010) 210

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International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping

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Development of probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis codes for reactor pressure vessels and piping considering welding residual stress
Kunio Onizawa*, Hiroyuki Nishikawa, Hiroto Itoh
Reactor Component Reliability Research Group, Nuclear Safety Research Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirane Shirakata, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki 319-1195, Japan

a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history: Received 30 October 2008 Accepted 10 February 2009 Keywords: Probabilistic fracture mechanics Reactor pressure vessel Welding residual stress Stress corrosion cracking Piping

a b s t r a c t
Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis codes for reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) and piping, called as PASCAL (PFM Analysis of Structural Components in Aging LWRs) series, have been developed. The PASCAL2 (PASCAL version 2) evaluates the conditional probability of fracture of an RPV under transient conditions including pressurized thermal shock (PTS) considering neutron irradiation embrittlement of the vessels. Recent improvements to PASCAL2 are related to the treatment of weld overlay cladding. The results using the improved code indicate that the residual stress by weldoverlay cladding affects the fracture probability to some extent. The PASCAL-SP (PASCAL Stress corrosion cracking at welding joints for Piping) evaluates the probabilities of failures including leakage and breaks of safety-related piping complying with Japanese regulation and rules. Effects of welding residual stress distribution as well as inspection accuracy are focused in this study. Residual stress distributions have been determined by parametric FEM analyses and incorporated into the code. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Some of the light water reactors (LWRs) in Japan have been operated for over 30 years. To assure the structural integrity of components is an important issue for the safe operation of these aged LWRs. Risk-informed regulation has recently become a concern on this matter. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) has attracted a great deal of interest as a useful tool for resolving the issue. The PFM approach is being introduced into regulations and standards related to the structural integrity in cases including pressurized thermal shock (PTS) for RPV of PWR and leak before break (LBB) of reactor coolant piping [1,2]. PTS is the most important event for challenging the structural integrity of RPV in PWR. To assess the structural integrity based on fracture mechanics has been codied since 1970s. Probabilistic fracture mechanics approach has become available early 1980s and incorporated into the regulation related to PTS on mid-1980s in the USA [3]. Research and development on the PTS issue has still been performed mainly to understand and predict the irradiation embrittlement of RPV steels and to develop probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code for a risk-informed regulation. Stress corrosion cracking (SCC), which degrades the structural integrity of reactor component, has been observed at some piping
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 81 29 282 6039; fax: 81 29 282 5406. E-mail address: onizawa.kunio@jaea.go.jp (K. Onizawa). 0308-0161/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ijpvp.2009.11.011

joints made by austenitic stainless steel in BWR plants. It is well known that the SCC behavior is signicantly scattered depending upon the various conditions; material, piping geometry, welding technique, environmental condition, and so on. Since PFM analysis treats such scatter and uncertainties in the structural integrity evaluation, it is, therefore, useful to apply the PFM analysis to the evaluation of the piping integrity. Several analysis codes based on PFM have been developed. In United States, PTS re-evaluation project has been performed to revisit the technical basis for the current PTS rule of RPVs. The improved models developed in the project have been implemented into the FAVOR code [4]. PRAISE has been developed to assess the failures of large-diameter reactor coolant piping including seismic events [5]. In those codes, some models including residual stress distribution and accuracy of aw detection by in-service inspection are mainly based on the experiments which were performed according to US plant data. This would make it unsuitable to assess the structural integrity of nuclear power plants in Japan. In Europe, PFM analysis codes for piping, including NURBIT [6], and STRUREL [7], have been developed. NURBIT has a model which is used for how crack shapes develop during the transition from a surface crack to a through-wall crack and further on until rupture occurs. STRUREL includes a decision making model under uncertainty and statistical analysis. The PFM codes called as PASCAL (PFM Analysis of Structural Components in Aging LWRs) series have been developed in JAEA.

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Each PASCAL code can be used for a different issue, i.e., the structural integrity analysis related to the PTS of RPV, piping failure probability analyses related to SCC of austenitic stainless steel, erosioncorrosion of carbon steel piping and PWSCC of Nickelbased alloy welds. This paper summarizes two kinds of PASCAL codes for PTS and SCC analyses mainly focusing on the welding residual stress as well as inspection quality which have recently been improved.

2. Development of PFM analysis code for reactor pressure vessels 2.1. Overview of PASCAL2 code The PFM analysis code PASCAL2 (PFM Analysis of Structural Components in Aging LWR version 2) has been developed at JAEA [811]. This code evaluates the conditional probability of failure of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) containing a aw under transient conditions such as PTS. The main ow chart of the PASCAL2 is shown in Fig. 1. The geometry of a aw (depth, length and location within the RPV wall) is rstly determined by sampling from a distribution of aw size (aw sampling). Next, the possibility of detection by non-destructive inspection and the embrittlementrelated parameters (chemical composition, neutron uence, reference temperature of nilductile transition (RTNDT) and fracture toughness) are sampled from appropriate distributions. A fracture analysis is performed based on the sampled aw condition for a selected transient. The applied Mode I stress

intensity factor (KI) and the fracture toughness (KIc) at the crack tip are compared at each transient time. The aw which starts to initiate is then evaluated whether it penetrates the RPV wall. Flaw sampling is repeated to the total sampling number. Finally, the conditional probability of failure is calculated as the ratio of the number of failed aws to the number of samples. Generalized analysis conditions have been proposed based on the improvements of the PASCAL2 and some results from sensitivity analyses using the PASCAL2. Major input parameters and conditions including default settings are listed in Table 1. In the next section, improvements of the PASCAL2 code has been presented, focusing on weldoverlay cladding in the following three points: introduction of welding residual stress, inspection quality and the initiation model of a aw in cladding. Some results from case studies by the PASCAL2 are also discussed.

2.2. Recent improvements of PASCAL2 code related to weldoverlay cladding On the manufacturing process of RPVs, austenitic cladding is welded on the inner surface of ferritic low-alloy steel to protect the vessels from corrosion. Residual stresses occur in the vessel walls due to the difference between the thermal expansion coefcient of ferritic steel and that of austenitic cladding. The residual stresses remain even after post weld heat treatments (PWHT). To evaluate effects of the residual stresses on the conditional probability of failure is important to assess the structural integrity of the RPV in high accuracy.

Start Data input Flaw sampling Calculation of the probability of detection by non-destructive inspection Calculation of chemical components, fluence, RTNDT, KIc and KIa Update the time of transient No Crack initiation Yes Calculation of new flaw depth and length Vessel failure No Recalculation of No RTNDT and deviation of K Ic and K Ia Crack arrest Yes The end of transient Yes Total number of flaw Yes Evaluation of the conditional probability of failure End
Fig. 1. Main ow chart of PASCAL2.

Yes

No No

4 Table 1 Major analysis conditions in PASCAL2. Item KI for semi-elliptical aw

K. Onizawa et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 87 (2010) 210

Function and condition PASCAL KI databasea NewmanRaju equation Shiratori equation, etc. CRIEPI equationa ASME equation ORNL Weibull distribution modela NRC model ASME Code Sec. XI model, etc. JEAC 4201 equationa U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.99 Rev2 RCC-M equation, etc. KIc/KIa and plastic collapsea R6 method Considereda Not considered

KI for inner aw KIc and KIa equation

RTNDT shift equation

Failure criterion Warm pre-stress

a

Default analysis settings in PASCAL2.

In this study, the distribution of welding residual stress is introduced to the PFM analysis. Thermalelasticplasticcreep analysis has been performed to obtain the welding residual stress distribution due to weldoverlay cladding on the inner surface of an RPV. The analysis is done using ABAQUS [12], which is a commercially available FEM code. Model geometry for the FEM analysis is shown in Fig. 2. The model is a part of the beltline region of a typical 3-loop RPV with 12 degree in the circumferential direction and 288 mm in the axial direction. This small-size model was chosen for the sake of saving calculation time. The inner radius of base metal of the RPV and the thickness of the base metal are 2000 mm and 200 mm, respectively. The thickness and the width of weld metal are 6 mm and 48 mm, respectively. Elements using in this analysis are three-dimensional solid ones which have 6 nodes. The number of elements and nodes in this model are 8920 and 10,127, respectively. Various material properties including stressstrain curves and coefcients of thermal expansion for the base metal and weld metal have temperature dependencies. Boundary conditions applied to the FEM model are indicated in Fig. 3. Symmetric boundary condition has been imposed on the two lateral faces to constrain the circumferential direction (Fig. 3(a)). The top face and bottom face are constrained to keep parallel (Fig. 3(b)). The procedure of the analysis consists of four steps: weldoverlay cladding, PWHT, hydrostatic test and normal operating condition. Table 2 shows the brief summary of each step. Fig. 4 shows the through-thickness variation of the welding residual stress at 288  C. The residual stress indicates a drastic change at the boundary between the cladding and the base metal. In the cladding region, the stress in hoop direction is rather

Fig. 3. Boundary conditions in FEM analysis. (a) Top view of the FEM model (b) Side view of the FEM model.

compressive below 100 MPa. In contrast, the stress in base metal near the cladding is tensile around 80 MPa. Inspection models incorporating the cladding layer have been developed based on the data of Ultrasonic Test & Evaluation for Maintenance Standards (UTS) project [13] by Japan Power Engineering and Inspection Corporation (JAPEIC) and Japan Nuclear Energy Safety organization (JNES). The data include carbon steel plates with cladding layer which have a aw and the nozzle region of RPVs with cladding layer which have a aw. Cladding layers of RPVs are made of austenitic stainless steel with small amount of delta-ferrite. This causes the fracture toughness of the cladding layers sufciently large compared to the stress intensity factor produced for the aw. Therefore, no brittle fracture initiation from a aw in cladding layer probably occurs. Fig. 5 shows two aw initiation models: initiation in cladding (previous model) and no initiation in cladding (improved model). In the present study, the initiation model of a aw in the PASCAL2 code has been improved in such a way that the aw in cladding layer does not initiate. 2.3. Case studies of the improved PASCAL2 We present in this section case studies using the improved PASCAL2 to clarify the effects of welding residual stresses due to weldoverlay cladding and the initiation model of a aw in cladding on the conditional probability of failure.
Table 2 Brief summary of analysis condition of FEM analysis. Step Weldoverlay cladding Brief summary of analysis conditions Submerged-arc welding Welding pass: 16 Cooling to 20  C after welding 620  C for 6 h 21.5 MPa of inner pressure at 20  C 288  C and 15.4 MPa

Fig. 2. FEM model.

PWHT Hydrostatic test Normal operation

K. Onizawa et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 87 (2010) 210 Table 3 Geometry of the RPV and the type of a aw. Item Inner radius of the vessel Wall thickness Cladding thickness Flaw type Flaw direction Flaw position Function and condition 1994 mm 200 mm 6 mm Surface-breaking semi-elliptical aw Axial Welding region

The initial aw distributions assumed in this study are in the following two models: - Modied Marshall distribution for depth (Fig. 7) and lognormal distribution for aspect ratio, and - Fixed to 16 mm in depth and 64 mm in length which corresponds to the postulated aw geometry used in the integrity assessment of RPVs. The modied Marshall distribution is exponential form as shown in eq. (1).

Fig. 4. Through-thickness distribution of welding residual stress due to weldoverlay cladding at 288  C.

2.3.1. Analysis condition In this study, one axial aw is assumed to be present in the wall of an RPV. The geometry of the RPV and the type of a aw are given in Table 3. Thermal hydraulic transient caused from small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is applied as a PTS transient. The SBLOCA is one of the transients used in the integrity assessment of RPVs. Time histories of temperature and inner pressure during SBLOCA are indicated in Fig. 6. A coefcient of heat transfer to the inner surface of the RPV used in the thermal transfer analysis is the conservative value of 21,411 W/(m2  C). To study the effect of aw initiation in the cladding layer, two cases of analyses, where the aw in cladding layer initiates and does not, are performed. After the initiation, the PASCAL2 has a function to select a aw growth model which denes the change of aw geometry such as independent aw growth at the deepest and surface points, transform from semi-elliptical to innite aw. In the case of no aw initiation in cladding is applied, the model of aw transformation from semi-elliptical to innite aw is applied.

n  o pa 0:16 exp 0:16 a tcladding

(1)

where a is the aw depth, tcladding is the thickness of cladding layer, and p(a) is the probability density function of the aw depth. In the modied Marshall model, there is no aw in the cladding layer. The parameters of the analysis cases in this study are listed in Table 4. Default settings for PASCAL2 shown in Table 1 are applied to the analysis input conditions except for the initial aw size distribution, the welding residual stress and the initiation model of a aw. Table 5 lists the random variables in the analysis. 2.3.2. Results of PFM analysis Shown in Fig. 8 is the conditional probability of failure (CPF) as a function of fast neutron uence. In the cases of the xed aw size (Cases 14), the application of welding residual stress (Cases 2 and 4) increases CPF by around 50%. This indicates that the consideration of the welding residual stress can be conservative for the semi-elliptical aw, the depth and length of which are 16 mm and 64 mm, respectively. In contrast, the application of the residual stress decreases CPF for the modied Marshall distribution (Cases 58). A comparison of results between Case 1 and Case 5 reveals that CPF for the modied Marshall distribution is higher than that for the xed aw size. Effects of the welding residual stress on the stress intensity factors (SIFs) at the deepest point of aws during PTS have been

Fig. 5. Flaw initiation models in PASCAL2. (a) Previous model (b) Improved model.

Fig. 6. Time histories of temperature and inner pressure during PTS.

K. Onizawa et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 87 (2010) 210 Table 5 Random variables in PFM analysis by PASCAL2. Random variable Initial nilductile transition of reference temperature, RTNDT0 DRTNDT Chemical components (Cu, Ni, P and Si) of RPV materials Fracture toughness, KIc Crack-arrest fracture toughness, KIa Fast uence Initial aw depth Initial aw length Distribution Normal distribution Normal distribution Normal distribution Weibull distribution Welbull distribution Normal distribution Modied Marshall distribution (Fig. 6) Lognormal distribution

Fig. 7. Modied Marshall distribution.

checked to explain the above results. Fig. 9 shows SIFs at the deepest point of a aw during PTS. For the aw, the depth of which is 7 mm (Fig. 9(a)), the maximum value of SIF considering welding residual stress (51 MPa m1/2) is lower than that not considering the residual stress (60 MPa m1/2). This behavior is due to the compressive stress in the cladding as shown in Fig. 4. In contrast, for the aw, the depth of which is 16 mm (Fig. 9(b)), the consideration of welding residual stress increases the maximum value of SIFs. This stems from the tensile region near the aw tip. In the case of the modied Marshall distribution, it is probable that the effects of welding residual stress for the shallower aws (e.g. 7 mm in depth) are dominant. The application of the modied initiation model considered the no initiation of a aw in cladding has reduced CPF to about half. This is due to the fact that a aw cannot initiate in the length direction for the model of no initiation in cladding. Real aws can develop in the length direction at the interface between base metals and cladding. The initiation model needs to be further modied to calculate SIFs in high accuracy. Nevertheless, we can conclude that the consideration of weldoverlay cladding is important to assess the structural integrity of RPV. 3. Development of PFM analysis code for aged piping 3.1. Overview of PASCAL-SP code As a part of the probabilistic structural integrity research for LWR components, new PFM code PASCAL-SP (PFM Analysis of Structural Components in Aging LWR Stress Corrosion Cracking at Welded Joints of Piping) has been developed. The code evaluates the failure probability of an aged welded joint of piping with regard to mainly SCC based on a Monte Carlo calculation method. The development of the code has been aimed to improve the accuracy and reliability of PFM analysis by introducing new analysis

methodologies and algorithms considering the recent development in the fracture mechanics methodologies and computer performance. PASCAL-SP code basically conforms to approaches of Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency of Japan (NISA) and Codes for Nuclear Power Generation Facilities Rules on Fitness-for-Service for Nuclear Power Plants - of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME FFS). Fig. 10 shows the outline of the evaluation procedure in PASCAL-SP code. After sampling of random variables for initial analysis condition with regard to the scatter and uncertainties, plant operation situations including some events such as transient, earthquake and inspection are simulated. During the plant operation, aw initiation and growth due to SCC and fatigue aw growth caused by seismic stress and transient events are considered. The equation of SIF in JSME FFS was applied to the crack growth calculation. In-service inspections are done periodically. Accuracy of aw detection and sizing for the in-service inspection

Table 4 Conditions of case studies using PASCAL2. Case Initial aw distribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Welding residual Flaw in stress cladding Initiation Initiation No initiation No initiation Initiation Initiation No initiation No initiation

Single aw with xed dimension Not considered (16 mm in depth and 32 mm in length) Considered Not considered Considered Marshall distribution (depth) Not considered lognormal distribution (aspect ratio) Considered Not considered Considered

Fig. 8. Conditional probability of failure as a function of neutron uence. (a) Cases 14 (b) Cases 58.

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the crack is done. Then, the integrity assessment by JSME FFS is conducted. The integrity assessment judges repairreplace or continual use with virtual crack growth in a time period. The results of failure judgment are classied into intact, leak, break and maintenancereplacement. The piping is evaluated as leak when aws grow through the wall and leak is detectable. Leak rate is calculated by the method of Shinokawa et al. [14]. The surface roughness on the crack is not considered as a random variable. It is evaluated as break when applied stress exceeds failure stress. Failure judgment is also done during aw growth evaluation. The piping is judged as maintenancereplacement when a detected aw at in-service inspection has an inuence on the integrity within ve years operation according to the defect evaluation method of JSME FFS codes. The procedures above are repeated many times to evaluate failure probabilities (Monte Carlo method). A concept of segment, which is a group of welding lines, is introduced to evaluate entire failure probabilities for segments of plural welding lines. The failure probability of each segment is evaluated after evaluation of that of each welding line. The system failure probability is then evaluated based on the failure probability of each segment. Large numbers of calculation by Monte Carlo methods generally takes a long time. Hence, a function of parallel calculation in PC cluster environment has been introduced. It reduces the calculation time effectively. For example, a calculation which takes 7000 s in a single CPU PC does end only at 1000 s in 8 parallel CPU calculations. 3.2. Modeling for uncertainties of welding residual stress distribution
Fig. 9. SIFs as a function of temperature for various aw sizes. (a) 7 mm in depth and 14 mm in length (b) 16 mm in depth and 32 mm in length.

are modeled by using the data of Ultrasonic Test & Evaluation for Maintenance Standards (UTS) project [13] by Japan Power Engineering and Inspection Corporation (JAPEIC) and Japan Nuclear Energy Safety organization (JNES). When SCC is detected, sizing of

Welding residual stress distribution affects initiation and growth of SCC signicantly. The welding parameters such as heat input and welding speed have inuences residual stress distribution. Uncertainties and scatters in welding parameters may exist because the parameters usually depend on the welding techniques applied and situations. Even if the welding parameters are determined precisely, the uncertainties and scatters of residual

Fig. 10. Schematic image of PFM analysis code for piping: PASCAL-SP.

K. Onizawa et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 87 (2010) 210 Table 6 Analytical conditions of PFM analysis for 250A piping. Segments Segment Welding line numbers Operating stress (MPa)

Residual stress distribution Crack initiation Crack growth rate by SCC In-service inspection Failure judgment Flow stress Fig. 11. Probabilistic model of aw detection by UT and research results [13] for SCC in austenitic stainless steel piping.

1 24 147 2 24 109.95 3 24 73.5 4 24 36.75 Database made by parametric FEM analyses about heat input and welding velocity Pre-existing one crack (depth 0.7 mm, length 15.5 mm) at each welding line Based on the experimental data in the annex of rules on tness-for-service (JSME) Rules on tness-for-service (JSME) Rules on tness-for-service (JSME) Weibull distribution (shape parameter 1.89, scale parameter 36.9, location parameter 327.5 MPa)

stress exist because the experimental and analytical evaluation of weld residual stress has also the uncertainties to some degree. Although many factors contribute uncertainties and scatters of welding residual stress distribution, we have developed a probabilistic evaluation model that takes the uncertainties and scatters into account for PFM analysis [15]. At rst step, the uncertainties and scatters of heat input and welding speed in welding parameters are focused. We measured the welding parameters during welding experimentally for many butt weld joints of 250A pipes. Using the measured data on welding parameters, parametric FEM analyses to simulate the welding residual stress with regard to the heat input and welding speed have been performed. The parametric FEM analyses of 108 cases by a two-dimensional axisymmetric model were done for 250A piping [16]. Consequently the database on the welding residual stress distribution around the welded joint has been established. The database of residual stress distribution is used to determine the residual stress distribution for the calculation of SCC initiation and growth in the PASCAL-SP. We assume in the residual stress distribution model that the uncertainty and scatter of residual stress at a point near welding joints follows normal distribution. The statistics about residual stress distribution, i.e., average and standard deviation of residual stress at each point and correlation coefcient between nearest neighboring points in piping thickness direction, are introduced to determine the residual stress distribution. The standard deviation represents uncertainties and the correlation coefcient means the tendency of uctuations in the increase and decrease of residual stress. The values of the

average, the standard deviation and the correlation coefcient are estimated from the results of parametric FEM analyses of weld simulation. Residual stress distribution in piping thickness direction for each sampling calculation is evaluated in PASCAL-SP in the following way. At rst, residual stress following a normal distribution at each point is determined by the statistics in the database. The equation below eq. (2) is used to determine stress Sj at each point in piping thickness direction.

 q 2 Sj sj Ci Z 1 rij Save j Ci
rij Si Save i

(2)

si

where, Sk is stress at kth point; Save is average stress; sk is standard k deviation of stress; rij is correlation coefcient of stress between ith and jth point (neighboring points) in piping thickness direction; Z is a random number following a standard normal distribution. Secondly, fourth polynomial expression in piping thickness direction is determined according to the least square method using stress Sj. The polynomial coefcients are used for the calculation of stress intensity factor by an inuence function method in JSME FFS where fourth order polynomial expression is prescribed. The stress intensity factor determines crack growth rate. Repeating the procedures above leads the evaluation of uncertainties in residual stress distribution. We proposes this probabilistic model which can be applied to the failure probability analysis based on PFM for welded joint of piping considering the uncertainty of welding residual stress. 3.3. Modeling for ultrasonic testing accuracy Ultrasonic testing (UT) is generally applied to the in-service inspection (ISI). Models of the accuracy of aw detection and sizing of a aw by UT are needed to simulate the quality of ISI in PFM

Table 7 Random variables in PFM analyses by PASCAL-SP. Category SCC Random variable Crack initiation position at inner surface of piping from fusion line Crack growth rate (coefcient) Residual stress distribution Flow stress Crack detection probability Crack sizing accuracy Distribution Normal distribution Lognormal distribution Normal distribution Weibull distribution Normal distribution Normal distribution

Fig. 12. Flaw depth sizing model of SCC in austenitic stainless steel piping by TOFD method.

Stress Material property In-service Inspection

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Fig. 13. Effect of the standard deviation of residual stress distribution on probabilities of pipe break as a function of operating time.

Parametric PFM analyses concerning the standard deviation at each point in the database of residual stress distribution were performed. Fig. 13 shows the results of conditional break probability as a function of operating time. The magnication to the standard deviation represents the uncertainties of entire residual stress distribution. It is indicated that the uncertainties and scatters of residual stress affects signicantly on the pipe break probability. Parametric analyses concerning the examination degree of in-service inspection were also performed. Fig. 14 shows the results of conditional break probability on this analysis as a function of operating time. The degree of 25% per 10 years is a prescribed one in the FFS code. The results show more thorough inspection gives very low value and the trend of decrease in the break probability. On the other hand, less inspection provides high value and increasing trend in break probability. Using this kind of analyses, the optimum inspection degree and schedule may be determined. 4. Summary The PASCAL2 code has been improved considering overlayweld cladding. Using the code, effects of the welding residual stress and the initiation model of a aw on the conditional probability of failure have been evaluated. Both the welding residual stress and the initiation model of a aw in the cladding affect CPF to some extent. The consideration of overlayweld cladding to the PASCAL2 code is essential to assess the structural integrity of reactor pressure vessels. New PFM analysis code PASCAL-SP, which evaluates the failure probability of an aged welded joint of piping under SCC, has been developed. Models for uncertainties and scatters of welding residual stress distribution and accuracy of ultrasonic testing in aw detection and sizing at in-service inspection have been incorporated into PASCAL-SP. PFM analyses concerning standard deviation of residual stress and examination degree of in-service inspection using PASCAL-SP for 250A piping shows the effects of the parameters on break probabilities quantitatively. Acknowledgements This study has been performed under the contract between Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan and JAEA. References
[1] U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Evaluation of potential for pipe breaks. NUREG-1061; 1984. [2] U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Regulatory guide 1.154: format and content of plant specic pressurized thermal shock safety analysis reports for pressurized water reactor; 1987. [3] Code of federal regulation, title 10, part 50, section 50.61 and appendix G; 1985. [4] Williams PT, Dickson TL, Yin S. Fracture analysis of vessels Oak Ridge, FAVOR v04.1, computer code: theory and implementation of algorithms, methods and correlations. USNRC Report NUREG/CR-6854. TN. USA: Nuclear Regulatory Commission; 2004. [5] Harris DO, Lu SC. Theoretical and users manual for pc-PRAISE, a probabilistic fracture mechanics computer code for piping reliability analysis. USNRC Report NUREG/CR-5864. Washington, D.C.: Nuclear Regulatory Commission; 1992. [6] Saarenheimo A, Simola K. Independent review of NURBIT. NURBIM Report D4/ Appendix D2. Finland: VTT Industrial Systems; 2004. [7] Muhammed A. STRUREL results for SCC. NURBIM Report D4/Appendix A2. UK: TWI; 2003. [8] Onizawa K, Shibata K, Suzuki M, Kato D, Li Y. Embedded crack treatments and fracture toughness evaluation methods in probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code for the PTS analysis of RPV. In: Proceedings of ASME pressure vessels and piping division conference, ASME-PVP 481; 2004. p. 117. [9] Onizawa K, Shibata K, Osakabe K, Tanaka K. Improvements to PFM analysis code PASCAL and some case studies on RPV integrity during pressurized

analysis. Some aw detection models exist. However, they are based on old or foreign data. And no aw sizing models exist. Hence, we modeled the accuracy of aw detection and sizing of a aw in piping through the regression analyses of the data provided by the national project of Ultrasonic Test & Evaluation for Maintenance Standards (UTS) [13] in Japan. Figs. 11 and 12 show the aw detection model and depth sizing model by time of ight diffraction (TOFD) method, respectively as examples. These models have been incorporated into the PASCAL-SP code. 3.4. PFM analysis by PASCAL-SP PFM analyses concerning uncertainties and scatters of residual stress and the effect of in-service inspection for 250A piping (Type 316L, B267.4 mm, 15.1 mm thickness), were performed by using PASCAL-SP. Table 6 shows the outline of analytical conditions. We assumed that there were 4 segments categorized by operating stress and each segment consisted of 24 welding lines. One aw (depth 0.7 mm, total length 15.5 mm) which could not be detected in the UTS project [13] was set on the inner surface of each welding line at time 0 as a initial aw. Statistical aw growth rate was modeled based on the experimental data of JSME FFS code. The schedule of in-service inspection was also based on JSME FFS. Net section stress collapse criterion applicable to austenitic stainless steel pipe in JSME FFS was used for failure judgment. Elastic plastic fracture was not considered. No earthquake was considered. Table 7 shows random variables considered in the analyses.

Fig. 14. Effect of the examination degree on probabilities of pipe break as a function of operating time.

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K. Onizawa et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 87 (2010) 210 thermal shock. In: Proceedings of ASME pressure vessels and piping division conference, PVP2006-ICPVT-11-93368; 2006. Osakabe K, Kato D, Onizawa K, Shibata K. Users manual and analysis methodology of probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code PASCAL ver.2 for reactor pressure vessel. JAEA-Data/Code 2006-020. Japan Atomic Energy Agency; 2006 [in Japanese]. Osakabe K, Onizawa K, Shibata K, Suzuki M. Development of probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code PASCAL ver.2 for reactor pressure vessel. Transaction of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan 2007;6(2):16171 [in Japanese]. ABAQUS users manual, version 6.7. Dassault Systemes Simulia Corp.; 2007. Japan nuclear energy safety organization (JNES). Report on demonstration project of inspection technique at nuclear power facility (conrmation of accuracy for defect detection and sizing on ultrasonic testing) [summary version]; 2005 [in Japanese]. [14] Shinokawa H, Shibata K, Isozaki T. Program of calculation coolant leakage amount from through crack. JAERI-M 90-050. Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute; 1990 [in Japanese]. [15] Itoh H, Katsuyama J, Onizawa K. A probabilistic evaluation model for welding residual stress distribution at piping joint in probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. In: Proceedings of ASME pressure vessels and piping division conference, PVP2008-61421; 2008. [16] Katsuyama J, Tobita T, Itoh H, Onizawa K. Effect of welding conditions on residual stress and SCC behavior at butt-welding joints of recirculation pipes. In: Proceedings of ASME pressure vessels and piping division conference, PVP2008-61430; 2008.

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