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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 23, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

D Vijiya Rao - Research Analyst vijiya.d@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6134view

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report


Wednesday| January 23, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.94 million in December. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 31.5-mark in Jan. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 13.2 billion Pounds in Dec. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today on the back of new stimulus declared by Bank of Japan yesterday which would be starting from next year. US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.94 million in December as against a rise of 4.99 million in November. Richmond Manufacturing Index was at 12-level in January from previous rise of 5-mark in December. US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency had depreciated on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, US equities also traded on a positive note which also exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 79.79 and closed at 79.97 on Tuesday. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable US existing homes sales data.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last INR/$ (Spot) 79.94 Prev day -0.2

as on 22 January, 2013 w-o-w 0.1 m-o-m 0.8 y-o-y -0.6

$/Euro (Spot)

1.332

0.1

0.1

0.6

3.0

Dollar Index NIFTY

79.94

-0.2

0.1

0.8

-0.6

6048.5

-0.6

-0.1

2.2

19.8

SENSEX

19981.6

-0.6

0.0

2.7

19.4

DJIA

13712.2

0.5

1.3

3.0

7.8

S&P

1489.45

0.46

1.52

3.45

13.56

Source: Reuters

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency had appreciated in the early part of the trade as a result of rise in import duty on gold by Indian government to curb the current account deficit. Apart from that, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 53.37 and closed at 53.72 against dollar on Tuesday. However, in the later part of the trade currency had depreciated on the back of dollar demand from oil companies. Additionally, domestic equities also ended on a negative note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency.

The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of better economic sentiments data from the region coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, statement from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that 2013 has begun with more confidence as compared to last year also supported an upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.3371 and closed at 1.332 against dollar on Tuesday. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased by 24.6 points to 31.5-mark in January as against a rise of 6.9-level in December. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose by 23.6 points to 31.2-level in January from previous rise of 7.6-mark in prior month. Spanish House Price Index (HPI) declined by 2.2 percent in Q4 of 2012 as compared to earlier fall of 2.4 percent in Q3 of 2012.

For the current month 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 15,456.90 crores ($2,830.21) till 22nd January 2013. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.15,456.70 crores ($2,830.20) as on 22nd January 2013.

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Commodities Daily Report


Wednesday| January 23, 2013

Bullion Gold

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Feb13) MCX Gold (Feb13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz 1692.8 $/oz Rs /10 gms 30772.0 0.0 -0.3 1.0 #N/A #N/A 0.6 2.9 1.7 Last 1691.6 31175.0 1690.5 Prev day 0.1 2.8 0.2 as on 22 January, 2013 WoW 0.8 #N/A 0.6 MoM 2.7 2.0 2.4 YoY 1.5 14.8 2.3

Spot gold prices continued to extend gains of the previous day on account of positive global market sentiments after Bank of Japan announced stimulus measures to spur growth in the economy. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported prices to remain firm. In the domestic markets, prices settled on a flat note. Bank of Japan announced open ended asset purchase program of about 3 trillion yen ($146 billion) per month which will commence from January 2014 and has also set the target of inflation at 2 percent. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1,695.76/oz and closed at $1,691.6/oz in yesterdays trading session. On the MCX, Gold February contract ended on a flat note. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee along with imposition of import duty on gold from January 22, 2012 also kept the prices of the yellow metal supported. MCX gold prices closed at Rs.30,772/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 30,818/10 gms on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)


Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar13) MCX Silver (Mar13) Unit $/oz 59500.0 Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Rs / kg 59617.0 0.3 3194.0 3214.7 0.1 #N/A 0.2 Last 32.2 Prev day 0.6

as on 22 January, 2013 WoW 2.7 0.8 MoM 7.5 -0.3 YoY 0.3 12.0

Silver
Taking cues from strength in the gold prices spot silver prices also ended 0.6 percent higher. Weakness in the DX along with strength in the base metals pack also acted as a supportive factor for the spot silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $32.34/oz and closed at $32.2/oz on Tuesday. In the domestic market, prices ended 0.3 percent higher taking cues from strength in the spot silver prices and depreciation in the rupee. Prices of silver closed at Rs.59,617/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 59,720/kg in yesterdays trading session.

2.4 2.1

2.6 8.6

5.2 1.6

0.3

4.0

#N/A

Source: Reuters

Outlook
In todays session, we expect prices to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Stimulus measures announced by the Bank of Japan are also expected to support an upside in the precious metals. In the domestic markets, gold prices are expected to trade with an upward bias tracking firmness in the spot gold along with depreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for January 23, 2013 Support 1688/1681 30680/30550 32.0/31.80 59300/59000 Resistance

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

1697/1703 30850/30950 32.30/32.50 59900/60200

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Commodities Daily Report


Wednesday| January 23, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased 0.7 percent yesterday taking cues from rise in the European economic sentiments data which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the crude oil prices. Oil prices touched an intra-day high of $96.38/bbl and closed at $96.24/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.5,202/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5,207/bbl on Tuesday. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels for the week ending on 18th January 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to gain by 0.4 million barrels for the same week. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Rise in the confidence in the Euro region along with stimulus measures announced by the Bank of Japan might increase the demand for the oil. However, expectation of rise in the crude oil inventories is expected to cap gains. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as a supportive factor for MCX crude oil prices. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Feb13) ICE Brent Crude (Feb13) MCX Crude (Jan13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl
112.4 0.6 1.9 2.0 2.3

as on 22 January, 2013 WoW


3.0 0.9 3.2

Last
96.1 113.5 96.2

Prev. day
0.5 0.2 0.7

MoM
7.1 1.0 6.8

YoY
-2.1 4.2 -2.3

$/bbl
5202.0 1.0 3.4 4.5 3.9

Rs/bbl
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas


Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Jan 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.558 192.3

(% change)

as on 21 January, 2013

Prev. day -0.22 -1.28

WoW 2.98 1.80

MoM 3.10 0.37

YoY 51.86 63.38


Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Jan 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl

valid for January 23, 2013

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas


Support 95.90/95 5170/5120 Resistance 97.10/98.0 5230/5280

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Commodities Daily Report


Wednesday| January 23, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Base metal prices traded on a positive note yesterday taking cues from the developments in Greece and Japan. The Euro area finance ministers approved the next disbursement aid to Greece of 9.2 billion Euros ($12.3 billion). Bank of Japan adopted open ended asset purchases programme of about 13 trillion yen ($145 billion) assets per month from January 2014 which would increase the appetite for metals. Decline in the inventories also supported an upside in the metal prices. Weak DX also lent support to the prices. In the domestic markets, marginal appreciation in the Indian rupee restricted gains in the base metals prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Jan13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Jan13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Jan13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Jan13)
Source: Reuters

as on 22 January, 2013 WoW


1.9

Last
8138.5

Prev. day
1.0

MoM
4.7

YoY
6.8

$/tonne

Rs/kg

440.2

0.9

-0.2

1.7

5.5

$/tonne

2071.0

1.3

0.7

0.5

2.6

Copper
Copper prices in yesterdays trade rose 1 percent on the back of stimulus measures by the Euro area finance ministers and Bank of Japan. Apart from this, the German ZEW indicator, a measure of economic sentiments of the nation, increased substantially. Decline in the LME inventories and a weak DX supported an upside in the metal prices. However, the US existing home sales expectedly dropped which put lid to the rise in the metal prices. LME Copper inventories declined 0.9 percent in yesterdays session and stood at 342,450 tonnes on Tuesday as against 345,525 tonnes on 21st January 2013. Prices of Copper on LME touched an intra-day high of $ 8,144.5per tonne and closed at $ 8138.5/tonne on Tuesday. In the domestic markets, MCX copper declined 0.9 percent tracing firmness in the international prices. Appreciation in the Indian rupee however, restricted sharp gains in the copper prices. In the domestic markets prices of Copper on MCX touched an intra-day high of Rs. 440.5 per kg and closed at Rs. 440.2 per kg on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we except base metal prices to trade upwards on the back of favorable economic data from the Euro region and the measures by the finance ministers of the region. However, the decline in the copper prices can be witnessed on the account of record production of refined metal in China. Refined copper production of the nation surged 22 percent in December at 580,000 tons, according to National Bureau of Statistics. About 40 percent of the worlds supplies of copper are consumed by China. The concerns over the US debt ceiling still lingers thus dampening the metal prices. The strong DX might also push the metal prices downwards. In the domestic markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee is expected to lend support to the metal prices of MCX. Technical Outlook valid for January 23, 2013
Unit MCX Copper Feb13 MCX Zinc Jan13 MCX Lead Jan 13 MCX Aluminum Jan13 MCX Nickel Jan 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 438/435 109.4/108.8 124.2/123.5 108.8/108 922/930 Resistance 442/445 110.8/111.5 125.8/126.5 110.2/111

Rs /kg

109.5

1.3

-1.5

-2.0

-0.6

$/tonne

17492.0

0.4

-0.1

0.1

-5.8

Rs /kg

935.4

0.3

-2.3

-2.2

-8.9

$/tonne

2336.8

1.8

2.0

0.6

15.4

Rs /kg

125.0

1.5

-0.1

-1.2

15.4

$/tonne

2063.5

1.5

3.3

-0.2

11.2

Rs /kg

110.0

1.3

1.3

-1.7

8.9

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 22 January
342450 5171400 148128 1219200 294000
st

21 January
345525 5177475 148020 1222850 294500

st

Actual Change -3,075 -6,075 108 -3,650 -500

(%) Change -0.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2


Source: Reuters

Technical Chart MCX Copper

Source: Telequote

942/950

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Commodities Daily Report


Wednesday| January 23, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator WEF Annual Meetings Claimant Count Change MPC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Rate Crude Oil Inventories

Country All GBP GBP GBP US

Time (IST) Day 1 3:00 pm 3:00 pm 3:00 pm 9:00 pm

Actual

Forecast 0.3K 0-0-9 7.8%

Previous -3.0K 0-0-9 7.8% -1.0M

Impact Medium High High Medium Medium

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