Currencies Daily Report

Monday| January 28, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| January 28, 2013

Highlights
US New Home Sales declined by 29,000 to 369,000 in December. German Ifo Business Climate rose by 1.8 points to 104.2-mark in Jan. UKs Prelim GDP declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012. Japans Corporate Services Price Index declined 0.4 percent in Dec.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA 6074.7 20103.5 13895.98 1503.0 17726.9 1946.7 61169.8 10926.7 95.88 1656.40 3118.00 8042.00 101.72 Prev. day 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -1.3 2.9 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 -0.1

as on January 25, 2013 WoW 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.1 1.0 -2.1 -1.3 -0.1 0.3 -1.8 -2.3 -0.6 -0.1 1.4 MoM 2.8 3.4 7.4 5.3 8.9 -2.5 0.4 5.1 5.6 0.1 4.2 2.5 YoY 17.8 17.7 9.1 14.3 10.0 0.7 -2.8 23.5 -3.8 -4.0 -7.5 -6.2 -1.3

Asia markets are trading on a mixed note as Japans corporate index declined less than forecast along with rise in Chinese industrial profits. US New Home Sales declined by 29,000 to 369,000 in December from earlier rise of 398,000 in November.

S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.4 percent in the last week. The currency depreciated on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US House of Representatives passed a Republican plan to allow the federal government to keep borrowing money till mid-May along with favorable economic data like decline in unemployment claims also added downside pressure on the DX. Apart from that, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 79.75 and closed at 79.82 on Friday.

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent. The currency appreciated as a result of central bank allowing exporters to access the foreign exchange market without having to first use funds in their foreign currency accounts and reversing the restriction which was imposed earlier. Additionally, Indian Finance Minister P Chidambaram made a statement in the last week that he will push through further reforms in the budget session which also supported an upside in the currency. Apart from that, upbeat domestic equities coupled with weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Indian Rupee touched a weekly high of 53.37 and closed at 53.79 against dollar on Friday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 17,298.70 th crores ($3,173.67 million) as on 24 January 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.17,298.60 crores ($3,173.70 million) till th 24 January 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, upside in the currency will be seen as a result of decision taken by Indian government in last week of allowing entry in foreign exchange market for the exporters coupled with optimistic statement from Finance Minister in prior week.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Jan13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Jan13 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.82 53.79 53.70 53.70 Prev. day -0.2 -0.2 0.11 0.12

as on January 25, 2013 WoW -0.4 -0.1 -1.28 -1.26 MoM 0.0 1.8 -2.35 -2.34 YoY 0.4 -8.1 7.21 7.22

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Jan13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for January 28, 2013 Support 53.55/53.40 Resistance 53.85/54.05

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| January 28, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by more than 1 percent in the last week. The currency appreciated as a result of better economic data like rise in manufacturing and services PMI, increase in German Ifo Business Climate which rose by 1.8 points along with upbeat global market sentiments. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 104.2-mark in January as against a rise of 102.4-level in December. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3479 and closed at 1.346 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Apart from that, expectations of favorable money supply data will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Jan13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.30/71.05 71.85/72.05 valid for January 28, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Jan 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Jan13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.346 72.53 71.57 71.6 Prev. day 0.6 -1.2 0.07 0.07

as on January 25, 2013 WoW 1.1 -0.3 -1.49 -1.47 MoM 1.9 0.0 -1.58 -1.56 9.89 9.89 YoY 2.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Pound Sterling depreciated by 0.4 percent on the back of decline in countrys Prelim GDP by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of unexpected decline in Claimant Count Change and unemployment rate data coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. Apart from that, weakness in the DX also prevented further fall in the currency. UKs Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012 from rise of 0.9 percent in Q3 of 2012. Index of Services rose at slow pace of 0.6 percent in November as compared to 1.1 percent in October. The Pound Sterling touched a weekly low of 1.5746 and closed at 1.5801 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect the Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Jan 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for January 28, 2013 Support 84.84/84.65 Resistance 85.25/85.50

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Jan13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Jan 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5801 85.005 84.99 Prev. day 0.1 0.00 -0.02

as on January 25, 2013

WoW -0.4 -2.11 -2.43

MoM -2.3 -4.09 -4.57

YoY 0.7 8.90 9.01

85.00

-0.01

-2.42

-4.56

9.04

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| January 28, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, stimulus measures declared by the Bank of Japan also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) declined by 0.4 percent in December from previous fall of 0.5 percent in November. The Yen touched a weekly low of 91.19 and closed at 90.9 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on the back of favorable Corporate Services Price Index data. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Jan 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for January 28, 2013 Support 59.70/59.40 Resistance 60.35/60.80
Source: Telequote

as on January 25, 2013 Last 90.9 0.5923 59.96 59.95 Prev day 0.6 -2.13 -1.30 -1.32 WoW 0.9 -2.12 -1.62 -1.64 MoM 5.7 -8.54 -7.94 -7.96 YoY 17.4 -8.00 -7.55 -7.55

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Jan13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Jan13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on January 28, 2013

Indicator M3 Money Supply y/y Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Pending Home Sales m/m Country Euro US US US Time (IST) 2:30pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm Actual Forecast 3.9% 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% Previous 3.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.7% Impact Medium High Medium High

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