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doi: 10.1136/adc.2009.175307
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ADC Online First, published on April 19, 2010 as 10.1136/adc.2009.175307 Global child health
ABSTRACT Climate change is occurring and has tremendous consequences for childrens health worldwide. This article describes how the rise in temperature, precipitation, droughts, oods, glacier melt and sea levels resulting from human-induced climate change is affecting the quantity, quality and ow of water resources worldwide and impacting child health through dangerous effects on water supply and sanitation, food production and human migration. It argues that paediatricians and healthcare professionals have a critical leadership role to play in motivating and sustaining efforts for policy change and programme implementation at the local, national and international level. INTRODUCTION
Climate change is occurring and has tremendous consequences for human health. In medical metaphor, the lab reports and vital signs from the earth suggest that our climate is in critical condition. Admitting our planet to the intensive care unit and beginning appropriate treatment will require signicant political action at the global scale. In 2009, representatives from governments and organisations around the world gathered in Copenhagen, Denmark for the 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference. The goal was laudableto establish a multilateral agreement to address climate change. However, the results were largely anaemic, with countries failing to commit to a binding agreement. Uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions will have serious implications on childrens health in this century. Leadership from paediatricians and the healthcare community is critical for initiating and sustaining the kind of global action required for addressing the biggest global health threat of the 21st century.1
increases are predicted for the South East Asian, Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacic regions.4 Recognising that the effects of climate change on child health are manifold (gure 1), 58 and this article focuses on the substantial impacts occurring through changes in water resources. The rise in temperature, precipitation, droughts, oods, glacier melt and sea levels resulting from humaninduced climate change is affecting the quantity, quality and ow of water resources worldwide and impacting child health through dangerous effects on water supply and sanitation, food production and human migration.
Kistin EJ, Article author (or their employer) 2010. Produced by 1 of 5 Copyright Fogarty J, Pokrasso RS, et al. Arch Dis Child (2010). doi:10.1136/adc.2009.175307 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd (& RCPCH) under licence.
Table 2
Region African
Range of estimates of relative risks attributable to climate change in 2030, under alternative exposure scenarios4
Climate scenario Unmitigated emissions Rapid emissions reduction Unmitigated emissions Rapid emissions reduction Unmitigated emissions Rapid emissions reduction Unmitigated emissions Rapid emissions reduction Unmitigated emissions Rapid emissions reduction Unmitigated emissions Rapid emissions reduction Diarrhoea 0.991.16 0.991.11 0.981.16 0.981.11 0.921.08 0.951.05 0.991.17 0.991.12 0.921.09 0.951.06 0.941.06 0.931.08 Malnutrition 1.001.05 1.001.00 1.001.12 1.001.06 1.001.00 1.001.10 1.001.27 1.001.22 1.001.00 1.001.02 1.001.00 1.001.00 Inland oods 1.002.27 1.003.16 1.006.83 1.003.16 1.004.24 1.003.74 1.001.75 1.002.49 1.003.13 1.002.50 1.008.79 1.007.73 Coastal oods 1.201.79 1.131.55 2.165.61 1.801.55 1.804.20 1.573.28 1.061.21 1.041.15 1.031.10 1.021.07 1.322.27 1.452.81 Malaria 1.001.17 1.001.09 1.001.43 1.001.09 1.001.28 1.001.15 1.001.02 1.001.01 1.001.83 1.001.43 1.001.27 1.001.52
Eastern Mediterranean Latin American and Caribbean South-East Asian Western Pacic* Developed countries
*Without developed countries. And Cuba. Scenario approximately following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92a predictions.41 Scenario of rapid emissions reduction resulting in stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent by 2170. Source: Campbell-Lendrum et al.4
disease and toxic contamination (table 3). 2 Rising temperatures and extreme rainfall are linked to diarrhoeal diseases in Africa and Asia.14 15 Throughout the world, inequities in the distribution and use of water resources have, at times, been a source of tension and dispute. The increase in water scarcity caused, in part, by climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions or spark new disputes related to the allocation and management of water resources at the local, national and international level.16
worsen childrens health. 20 In Kenya and Ethiopia, where droughts are common and are expected to become more frequent as temperatures rise, children under 6 are 36% and 50%, respectively, more likely to experience malnutrition if they are born during a drought. 21 In Ethiopia, this has resulted in 2 million additional malnourished children in 2005. In Niger, children under 3 are 72% more likely to experience stunting if born during a drought. 21 Stunting and malnutrition are associated with high rates of illness, death and impaired cognitive development. 20
FOOD PRODUCTION
Currently, the growth of one-third of all children under ve in developing nations (178 million children) is stunted by malnutrition.17 For many of these children, access to food will be further threatened as global temperatures continue to rise and key river basins become more susceptible to oods and droughts. Today for the rst time in history, explained Josette Sheeran, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme, over a billion people on earth will go to bed hungry, and one of the key factors is an increasingly severe and erratic climate.18 Nelson et al anticipate that by 2050, climate change will increase global rates of child malnutrition by 20%.19 Declining food production and rising food prices will exacerbate the global rates of malnutrition and stunting, and
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MIGRATION
Changes in the quantity and quality, of drinking water as a result of human-induced climate change will also contribute to large increases in human migration. 22 By 2050, it is expected that roughly 200 million climate refugees will be forced from their homelands by events including: increases in the frequency and severity of droughts and natural disasters, sealevel rise, environmental destruction and diminished access to safe water and food.17 The burden of migration due to climate change will fall primarily on the worlds poorest and most vulnerable populations, with particularly severe consequences for children.23 Children are the most susceptible population to vector and
Kistin EJ, Fogarty J, Pokrasso RS, et al. Arch Dis Child (2010). doi:10.1136/adc.2009.175307
Figure 1 Pathways of the impact of climate change on child health.5 *Evidence of climate change affecting health and evidence of its disproportionate impact on child health. #Included as Childrens Environmental Health Indicator42. Note: long-term social-economic implications of climate change are likely to reinforce the arrows leading to negative health outcomes; child poverty is also associated with ill health due to associated prevalence of child migration, child labour and trafcking. Source: Akachi et al.5 Table 3 Impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme precipitation-related weather11
Major projected impacts by sector Phenomenon and direction of trend Heavy precipitation events: frequency increases over most areas Likelihood of future trends Very likely Agriculture, forestry and ecosystems Damage to crops; soil erosion; inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging soils Water resources Adverse effects on quality of surface and ground water; contamination of water supply; water scarcity may be relieved More widespread water stress Human health Increased risk of deaths, injuries and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases Industry, settlements and society Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to ooding; pressures on urban and rural infrastructures; loss of property Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies; reduced hydropower generation potentials; potential for population migration Disruption by ood and high winds; withdrawal of risk coverage in vulnerable areas by private insurers; potential for population migrations; loss of property
Likely
Land degradation; lower yields/crop damage and failure; increased livestock deaths; increased risk of wildre Damage to crops; windthrow (uprooting) of trees; damage to coral reefs
Increased risk of food and water shortage, malnutrition and water- and foodborne diseases Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water and foodborne diseases and posttraumatic stress disorders
Likely
airborne diseases, and are the most impacted by malnutrition. 5 Exposure to such conditions increases when a population migrates, and basic health services become less accessible. 5
GLOBAL COMMITMENTS
Preventing serious deterioration of global child health will require dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and
increases in carbon biosequestration. Scientic agencies and experts have concluded that carbon emissions must be reduced to limit global temperature rise to no more than 2C above preindustrial levels. 22 Based on this evidence, in 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change called on industrialised nations to reduce carbon emissions by 2540% below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 80% by 2050.24 Recent reports
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TIME TO LEAD
A signicant transformation of our energy economy will be required to avoid extraordinary public-health problems for the children of today and tomorrow. Paediatricians and healthcare professionals have a critical leadership role to play in motivating and sustaining efforts for policy change and programme implementation at the local, national and international level. Many paediatric and medical membership organisations in the UK and abroad have already recognised the importance of addressing climate change and have advocated important steps in advocacy, education, research and personal behaviour.1 2832 The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) has made commitments to reduce its carbon dioxide output by 10% every year beginning in 2007. The College also facilitated a joint meeting with the BMJ and Faculty of Public Health on addressing climate change within the UK National Health System.33 There is a growing body of literature recommending many opportunities for healthcare professionals and medical organisations to take action on climate change. 3439 While recognising the importance of physicians action at multiple levels and in multiple ways, we must not lose sight of the need for political action at the local, national and international level.40 Combating climate change will require more than just turning off the lights. Well-organised medical and public health advocacy is urgently needed. Paediatricians and physicians can play an important role by putting pressure on professional organisations and societies such as the RCPCH and the European Academy of Paediatrics to adopt climate change as a key advocacy focus area and to dedicate substantial resources for lobbying and political action at the national and international level. Health professionals can join the UK Climate Health Council and the recently launched International Climate Health Council as easy avenues for getting involved political action at multiple scales. In Health Practitioners Guide to Climate Change: Diagnosis and Cure, Gill and Stott provide a comprehensive outline of ways in which physicians can act both individually and collectively.40 Protection of human health is a core function of societies and governments. Healthcare professionals have many opportunities to be the vanguard of the global energy transformation and the burgeoning movement to solve climate change. The time to lead is now.
Competing interests None. Provenance and peer review Commissioned; not externally peer reviewed. 4 of 5
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