Stat 330

Homework 2 Solution

Spring 2012

Maximum score is 20 points, due date is Friday, Jan 27th, before or during class. (1) A fair coin is tossed three times (recall that the sample space for this experiment was the answer to Q.1(a) in Homework #1). Assume that each elementary outcome in are equally likely. (a) What is the probability of two or more heads given that there was at least one head? Solution: Recall that = {HHH, HHT, HT H, HT T, T HH, T HT, T T H, T T T }, dene A = {obtaining two or more heads} = {HHH, HHT, T HH, HT H} and B= {obtaining at least one head} = {HHH, HHT, HT T, T HT, T T H, T HT, HT H}. Then, the probability of two or more heads given that there was at least one head is a conditional probability that P (A|B) = P (A B)/P (B) where A B = A. Notice, P (A|B) = |A|/|| |A| 4 P (A B) = = = . P (B) |B|/|| |B| 7

(b) What is this probability given that there was at least one tail? Solution: Likely, C = {at least one tail} = {T T T, T T H, T HT, HT T, HHT, HT H, T HH} and the probability given that there was at least one tail is P (A|C), by noticing A C = {HHT, HT H, T HH} we have P (A|C) = |A C| 3 P (A C) = = . P (C)) |C| 7

(2) Two fair dice are rolled. Assume that each elementary outcome in are equally likely. (a) What is the probability that at least one of the dice came up a three, if the sum of the face values is exactly six? Solution: The dices are distinguishable from each other. The sample space is = {(1, 1), (1, 2), , (1, 6), (2, 1), , (6, 6)}. The number/size of is 6 6 = 36. Let A = {getting at least one of the dice to be three} = {(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}, and B = {the sum of the face is exactly six} = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)} so that A B = {(3, 3)}. Then the probability that at least one of the dice came up a three, if the sum of the face values is exactly six is P (A|B), which is P (A|B) = |A B| 1 P (A B) = = P (B) |B| 5

(b) What is this probability, if the sum is less than six? Solution: Let C = {the sum is less than six} = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (4, 1)} and for the A dened above A C = {at least one of the dice came up a three given the sum is less than six} = {(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2)} so that P (A|C) = P (A C) |A C| 4 2 = = = . P (C) |C| 10 5

(3) * (This is a continuation of Problem 2.2 from Baron) Suppose that after 10 years of service, 40% of computers have problems with motherboards, 30% have problems with hard drives, and 15% have problems with both the motherboard and the hard drive. (i.) Are the events A=have problems with motherboards and B=have problems with hard drives independent? Why or why not? Solution: P (A B) = .15 but P (A)P (B) = (.4)(.3) = .12. Thus P (A B) = P (A)P (B) implying that events A and B are NOT independent. (ii.) What is the probability that after 10 years of service the motherboard of a computer has problems given that its hard drive is in good working order? Solution: P (A|B) =
P (AB) P (B)

.25 .7

= .357

(4) * (a.) The rst three digits of a university phone exchange are 452. If all the sequences of the remaining four digits are equally likely, what is the probability that a randomly selected university phone number contains seven distinct digits? Solution: || = 104 = 10, 000. Let A = the event that the 4 digits are one of {0, 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9}. 840 Then |A| = 7 6 5 4 or P (7, 4). Thus the required probability = |A| = 10000 = 0.084 || (b.) Suppose license plates have 6 entries. The rst three entries must be letters (A-Z), and the last three must be digits (0-9). Letters and digits can be used more than once. A license plate is selected randomly. What is the probability that the letters O, I, and Z and the digits 0 and 1 were not used for this plate? Solution: The number of all possible plates = || = (26)3 (10)3 . The number of plates (23)3 (8)3 excluding O, I, Z, 0, 1 = |A| = (23)3 (8)3 . P (plate excludes O, I , Z, 0, 1) = |A| = (26)3 (10)3 = || (0.8846 0.8)3 = 0.3544 (c.) A committee consists of ve whites, three Hispanics, two Asians, and two African-Americans. A subcommittee of four is formed at random. (i.) What is the probability that all ethnic groups are represented in the subcommittee? 9 10 11 12 = 495, the 234 5 3 2 2 number of subcommittees representing all ethnic groups = |A| = = 60 1 1 1 1 so that P (all ethnic groups represented) = 60/495 = 4/33 = 0.1212 (ii.) What is the probability of at least one nonwhite member being in the subcommittee? Solution: Total possible subcommittees = || = 12 4 = Solution: P (at least 1 non-white member) = 1P (0 non-white members) = 1
5 4 12 4

98/99 (d.) Suppose you receive 13 cards from a well-shued standard deck of cards. What is the probability that your hand will contain 2 or more Aces? Solution: P(at least 2 Aces)=P(exactly 2 Aces)+P(exactly 3 Aces)+P(all 4 Aces)
4 2

52 13

48 11

4 3

52 13

48 10

4 4

52 13

48 9

= 0.2573

(5) (Barons book): 2.5 Solution: A Test1 discovers error, B Test2 discovers error, C Test3 discovers error Given that P (A) = 0.2; P (B) = 0.3; P (C) = 0.5. Need to nd P (A B C) Using P (A B C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) P (A B) P (A C) P (B C) + P (A B C) and noting that by independence of the events A, B and C, that P (A B) = P (A)P (B), P (A C) = P (A)P (C), P (B C) = P (B)P (C) and P (A B C) = P (A)P (B)P (C) we have P (A B C) = 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.5 0.06 0.1 0.15 + 0.03 = 0.72

(6) (Barons book): 2.8 Solution: P(Shuttle launches on time)=P(all devices function properly) 3 = J=1 P(Device J functions properly) by independence =(1 0.01)(1 .02)(1 .02) = .0.9508 (7) (Barons book): 2.9 Solution: P(at least one module fails) = P(Module 1 fails Module 2 fails Module 3 fails) = 1P(Module 1 works properly Module 2 works properly Module 3 works properly) 3 =1 J=1 P(Module J works properly) by independence =1 (0.96) (0.95) (0.90) = 0.1792 (8) (Barons book): 2.14 (a) 6 dierent lower-case letters. There are 26 lower-case letters, select 6 letters and consider order, the total possibility is 26! n! = = 165765600 P (n ) = m m! 20! 1000000 So P = 165765600 = 6.03 (b) 6 dierent letters, some may be upper-case, case-sensitive. Weve already get dierent lower-case letters in (a), but in this case, every letter has two form: lower and upper case. So 6 letters has 26 = 64 dierent upper-lower case combinations. 1000000 Thus P = 16576560064 = 0.094 (c) Any 6 letters, can be upper or lower-case, case-sensitive. There are 26 + 26 = 52 possibilities in total, so 1000000 P = = 0.05 526 (d) Any 6 characters including letters and digits. we have 26 upper-case, 26 lower-case and 10 digits, so the total possibilities is 62. Therefore, 100000 P = = 0.018 626 * These problems will denitely be graded. See guidelines for grading homework.