Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2007
2008
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income
38,979
52,558
38,229
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities
Depreciation and amortization
9,824
14,622
21,347
Unrealized foreign currency exchange rate (gains) losses
161
-2,567
5,459
Loss on disposal of property and equipment
115
15
Stock-based compensation
1,982
4,182
8,466
Gain on bargain purchase of corporate headquarters (excludes transaction costs of $1.9 million)
Deferred income taxes
-6,721
-4,909
-2,818
Changes in reserves and allowances
3,832
4,551
8,711
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
-20,828
-24,222
2,634
Inventories
-26,504
-83,966
-19,497
Prepaid expenses and other assets
-3,997
-2,067
-7,187
Accounts payable
8,203
11,873
16,957
Accrued expenses and other liabilities
10,681
11,825
-5,316
Income taxes payable and receivable
-5,026
3,492
2,516
Net cash provided by operating activities
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of property and equipment
Purchase of corporate headquarters and related expenditures
Purchase of intangible assets
Purchase of trust owned life insurance policies
2009
46,785
28,249
-5,222
37
12,910
-5,212
1,623
3,792
32,998
1,870
-4,386
11,656
-6,059
10,701
-14,628
69,516
119,041
-15,115
-33,959
-38,594
-19,845
-125
-600
-2,893
-35
21
-89,650
-62,860
89,650
62,860
-15,115
-34,084
-42,066
-19,880
-1,354
169
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities
12,579
18,148
35,381
-16,467
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents
-487
497
-1,377
2,561
Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents
7,678
-30,067
61,454
85,255
62,977
70,655
40,588
102,042
End of year
70,655
40,588
102,042
187,297
30,502
525
29,561
1,444
40,834
1,273
20,522
531
2010
2011
68,477
96,919
31,321
1,280
44
16,227
-10,337
2,322
36,301
4,027
36
18,063
-3,300
3,620
5,536
-32,320
-65,239
-4,099
16,158
21,330
4,950
-33,923
-114,646
-42,633
17,209
23,442
4,567
50,114
15,218
-30,182
-56,228
-23,164
-11,125
-478
-3,862
-1,153
-5,029
-41,785
-89,436
30,000
-30,000
25,000
5,644
-7,418
5,262
-9,446
-97
4,189
10,260
7,335
14,645
-2,324
7,243
1,001
45,807
-75
16,573
-28,486
NCC
-28,278
-28,278
-67,186
-67,186
10,701
-14,628
31,287
72,256
31,287
72,256
0.04314 0.084371
69,516
119,041
16,637
-18,363
13,299
-81,701
50,114
15,218
187,297
203,870
203,870
175,384
38,556
38,773
992
56,940
2,305
6,336
-15,331
Net revenues
Cost of goods sold
2006
430,689
215,089
2007
606,561
301,517
2008
725,244
370,296
2009
2010
856,411 1,063,927
443,386 533,420
Gross profit
Selling, general and administrative expenses
215,600
158,682
305,044
218,779
354,948
278,023
413,025
327,752
530,507
418,152
56,918
86,265
2,169
2,778
76,925
-850
-6,175
85,273
-2,344
-511
112,355
-2,258
-1,178
59,087
20,108
89,043
36,485
69,900
31,671
82,418
35,633
108,919
40,442
Net income
38,979
52,558
38,229
46,785
68,477
0.83
0.79
1.09
1.05
0.78
0.76
0.94
0.92
1.35
1.34
46,983
49,587
48,021
49,959
49,086
50,342
49,848
50,650
50,798
51,282
9%
9%
5%
5%
6%
profit margin
2011
1,472,684
759,848
29,923
0.07
712,836
550,069
162,767
-3,841
-2,064
156,862
59,943
96,919
1.88
1.85
51,570
52,526
7%
7%
52,332
0.09
73,548
0.10
72,926
0.09
76,127
0.07
159,135
0.11
2.419368
0.09
2006
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents
70,655
Accounts receivable, net
71,867
Inventories
81,031
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 8,944
Income tax receivables
4,310
Deferred income taxes
8,145
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
40,588
93,515
166,082
11,028
614
10,418
102,042
81,302
182,232
18,023
187,297
79,356
148,488
19,989
203,870
102,034
215,355
19,326
175,384
134,043
324,409
39,643
12,824
12,870
15,265
16,184
244,952
29,923
7,875
5,180
1,438
322,245
52,332
6,470
8,173
1,393
396,423
73,548
5,470
8,687
3,427
448,000
72,926
5,681
13,908
5,073
555,850
76,127
3,914
21,275
18,212
689,663
159,135
5,535
15,885
48,992
Total assets
289,368
390,613
487,555
545,588
675,378
919,210
68,710
40,885
9,178
97
1,292
120,162
10,948
14,481
84,679
55,138
6,865
100,527
69,285
6,882
2,465
149,147
9,077
20,188
6,913
183,607
70,842
28,329
145,591
178,412
282,778
42,718
25,403
2,648
794
55,012
36,111
4,111
465
71,563
1,893
602
922
95,699
9,298
4,673
458
25,000
72,435
25,905
7,072
361
2,337
133,110
13,061
10,190
97
Total liabilities
74,980
110,128
156,458
Stockholders equity
Class A Common Stock, $.0003 1/3 par value; 100,000,000
12
shares
12
authorized
12 as of December
13
31,
13 2011 and132010; 40,496,126
Class B Convertible Common Stock, $.0003 1/3 par
4 value; 11,250,000
4
shares
4 authorized,
4 issued 4and outstanding
4
as of Decem
Additional paid-in capital
148,562 162,362 174,725 197,342 224,887 268,223
Retained earnings
66,376 117,782 156,011 202,188 270,021 366,164
Accumulated other comprehensive income -463
-182
405
464
2,041
2,028
Unearned compensation
-103
507
-60
-14
Total stockholders equity
214,388
280,485
331,097
399,997
496,966
636,432
289,368
390,613
487,555
545,588
675,378
919,210
WC
173,389 226,546 263,313 327,838 406,703 506,056
0.402585 0.373493 0.363068 0.382805 0.382266 0.343628
0.374641
106,053,000
0.107887
0.307632
Net revenue
Operating Inc
Op inc %
2010 results
1.064 billion
112 mm
10.60%
2011 targets
1.2 billion
120-160mm
10.5%-11.5%
2011 results
1.473 billion
163mm
11.10%
2011 vs 2010
results
38%
45%
0.005%
Scenario Summary
Current Values:
WACC Sensitivity
s2
Changing Cells:
$B$4
20.00%
20.00%
22.00%
$B$9
6.50%
4.00%
6.50%
$B$11
4.00%
4.00%
4.00%
Result Cells:
$B$56
36.35
39.04
40.33
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
41.32
s3
25.00%
6.50%
5.79%
42.63
s4
s5
s6
s7
25.00%
6.50%
4.00%
20.00%
6.50%
3.00%
25.00%
4.00%
5.79%
20.00%
6.50%
4.00%
46.81
38.28
45.78
36.35
Inputs
Beta_equity
Growth Rates:
UA
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Economy
RF_10yr
Excess period
Risk Premium
Cost of equity
Cost of debt
Tax rate - Cedc 10-Q
Profit margin
operating argin %
NCC % of rev
Working Cap % of rev
Share price
Shares outstanding
MV of equity
MV of debt
D/V
E/V
WACC
FCFF
Period
Revenue
NI
CFO
Operating income
NCC
Interest expense
After-tax int exp
1.82
20.00%
15.00%
13.00%
10.30%
3.50%
6.50%
5
4.00%
13.78%
3.50%
38.00%
7%
11%
8%
37%
56
104,460,000
5,849,760,000
106,053,000
0.017806637 They have a revolving credit line which is nonrecourse
0.982193363 This is one area which im confused about. Using book value the d/e is
13.57%
2006
2007
430,689,000
38,979,000
10,701,000
59,087,000
-28,278,000
0
606,561,000
52,558,000
-14,628,000
89,043,000
-67,186,000
0
Projected P/E
173,389,000
(628,083,779)
61,579,221
(44,473,779)
(0.43)
41.32
(0.45)
226,546,000
56.00 price
x
s
value
59.57 total profit
ne which is nonrecourse
used about. Using book value the d/e is about 10%
2008
2009
725,244,000
38,229,000
69,516,000
69,900,000
31,287,000
850000
856,411,000
46,785,000
119,041,000
82,418,000
72,256,000
2,344,000
2010
-2
1,063,927,000
68,477,000
50,114,000
108,919,000
-18,363,000
2,258,000
2011
-1
1,472,684,000
96,919,000
15,218,000
156,862,000
-81,701,000
3,841,000
2012
0
1,767,220,800
123,705,456
130,041,289
201,816,615
6,335,833
3,841,000
2,381,420
263,313,000
36,767,000
33,276,000
327,838,000
64,525,000
55,969,280
406,703,000
78,865,000
(27,351,040)
16,000,000
506,056,000
99,353,000
(97,753,580)
65,000,000
662,072,960
156,016,960
(88,594,250)
-88,594,250
1.9
55
(0.43)
53.53
5,352.57
1.9
55
41.32
11.78
1,178.20
1.9
55
45
8.10
810.00
1.9
55
50.00
3.10
310.00
1.9
55
53.10
(0.00)
(0.00)
2013
1
2,120,664,960
148,446,547
155,415,964
242,179,938
6,969,417
3,841,000
2,381,420
2014
2
2,544,797,952
178,135,857
185,802,215
290,615,926
7,666,358
3,841,000
2,381,420
2015
3
3,053,757,542
213,763,028
222,196,022
348,739,111
8,432,994
3,841,000
2,381,420
2016 Residual
4
3,664,509,051
256,515,634
265,791,927
418,486,934
9,276,294
3,841,000
2,381,420
65,000,000
794,487,552
132,414,592
(39,617,208)
-34,882,512
65,000,000
953,385,062
158,897,510
(35,713,875)
-27,687,565
1.9
55
52.00
1.10
110.00
1.9
55
55.00
(1.90)
(190.00)
65,000,000
1,144,062,074
190,677,012
(31,099,570)
-21,228,830
65,000,000
1,372,874,489
228,812,415
(25,639,068)
-15,409,828
(732,544,791)
-440,280,794
Inputs
Beta_equity
Growth Rates:
UA
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Economy
RF_10yr
Excess period
Risk Premium
Cost of equity
Cost of debt
Tax rate - Cedc 10-Q
Profit margin
operating margin %
NCC % of rev
Working Cap % of rev
Share price
Shares outstanding
MV of equity
MV of debt
D/V
E/V
WACC
FCFF
Period
Revenue
NI
CFO
Operating income
NCC
Interest expense
After-tax int exp
1.82
25.00%
15.00%
13.00%
10.30%
3.00%
4.00% He had 6.5% - I think that is alittle to high
5
4.00%
11.28%
3.50%
38.00%
7%
11%
8%
37%
30%
57
104,460,000
5,954,220,000
106,053,000
0.017499707 They have a revolving credit line which is nonrecourse
0.982500293 This is one area which im confused about. Using book value the d/e is
11.12%
2011
-1
1,472,684,000
96,919,000
15,218,000
156,862,000
-81,701,000
3,841,000
2012
0
1,840,855,000
128,859,850
135,195,683
210,225,641
6,335,833
3,841,000
2,381,420
Projected P/E
159,000,000
506,056,000
99,353,000
(240,753,580)
4,078,492,096
4,768,155,096
4,662,102,096
44.63
36.18
28.94
65,000,000
657,872,800
151,816,800
(79,239,697)
-79,239,697
which is nonrecourse
ed about. Using book value the d/e is about 10%
25%
Excess Growth Period
2013
1
2,301,068,750
161,074,813
168,044,229
262,782,051
6,969,417
3,841,000
2,381,420
20%
2014
2
2,876,335,938
201,343,516
209,009,874
328,477,564
7,666,358
3,841,000
2,381,420
2015
3
3,595,419,922
251,679,395
260,112,389
410,596,955
8,432,994
3,841,000
2,381,420
2016
4
4,494,274,902
314,599,243
323,875,537
513,246,194
9,276,294
3,841,000
2,381,420
2017
5
5,393,129,883
377,519,092
387,723,015
615,895,433
10,203,923
3,841,000
2,381,420
68,250,000
862,074,166
204,201,366
(102,025,717)
-91,815,323
71,662,500
1,077,592,708
215,518,542
(75,789,748)
-61,379,236
75,245,625
1,346,990,885
269,398,177
(82,149,993)
-59,872,041
79,007,906
1,683,738,606
336,747,721
(89,498,671)
-58,700,071
82,958,302
2,020,486,327
336,747,721
(29,601,588)
-17,471,997
15%
10%
Second Period - Slowed Growth
2018
6
6,202,099,365
434,146,956
445,371,271
708,279,748
11,224,315
3,841,000
2,381,420
2019
7
6,822,309,302
477,561,651
489,908,398
779,107,722
12,346,747
3,841,000
2,381,420
5%
3.50%
Perpetuity
2020 Residual
8
7,163,424,767
501,439,734
515,021,155
818,063,108
13,581,421
3,841,000
2,381,420
87,106,217
2,323,559,276
303,072,949
57,573,525
30,581,295
91,461,527
2,555,915,204
232,355,928
168,472,363
80,531,768
96,034,604
2,683,710,964
127,795,760
293,572,211
126,287,109
model, we keep profit margin at 7% thorugh 2nd period and residual- this is something I should look at-it is most likely sick optomistic
Inputs
Beta_equity
Growth Rates:
UA
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Economy
RF_10yr
Excess period
Risk Premium
Cost of equity
Cost of debt
Tax rate - Cedc 10-Q
Profit margin
operating margin %
NCC % of rev
Working Cap % of rev
Share price
Shares outstanding
MV of equity
MV of debt
D/V
E/V
WACC
FCFF
Period
Revenue
NI
CFO
Operating income
NCC
Interest expense
After-tax int exp
1.82
25.00%
15.00%
13.00%
10.30%
3.50%
2.00%
5
4.00%
9.28%
3.50%
38.00%
7%
11%
8%
37%
30%
57
104,460,000
5,954,220,000
106,053,000
0.017499707 They have a revolving credit line which is nonrecourse
0.982500293 This is one area which im confused about. Using book value the d/e is
9.16%
2011
-1
1,472,684,000
96,919,000
15,218,000
156,862,000
-81,701,000
3,841,000
2012
0
1,840,855,000
128,859,850
135,195,683
210,225,641
6,335,833
3,841,000
2,381,420
16,000,000
506,056,000
99,353,000
(97,753,580)
4,053,335,519
4,742,998,519
4,636,945,519
44.39
Ours
EPS 2011
EPS 2012
EPS 2013
Projected P/E
Forward P/E
Implied growth 2012
Implied growth 2013
0.93
1.23
1.54
35.98
28.79
32.96%
25.00%
Analyst Projections
0.93
1.19
1.54
47.90
37.01
28.26%
29.41%
65,000,000
657,872,800
151,816,800
(79,239,697)
-79,239,697
which is nonrecourse
ed about. Using book value the d/e is about 10%
25%
Excess Growth Period
2013
1
2,301,068,750
161,074,813
168,044,229
262,782,051
6,969,417
3,841,000
2,381,420
20%
2014
2
2,876,335,938
201,343,516
209,009,874
328,477,564
7,666,358
4,033,050
2,500,491
2015
3
3,595,419,922
251,679,395
260,112,389
410,596,955
8,432,994
4,033,050
2,500,491
2016
4
4,494,274,902
314,599,243
323,875,537
513,246,194
9,276,294
4,033,050
2,500,491
2017
5
5,393,129,883
377,519,092
387,723,015
615,895,433
10,203,923
4,033,050
2,500,491
68,250,000
862,074,166
204,201,366
(102,025,717)
-93,468,167
71,662,500
1,077,592,708
215,518,542
(75,670,677)
-63,509,071
44.39
20%
22%
25%
28.26%
29.41%
Growth Rate
Average
75,245,625
1,346,990,885
269,398,177
(82,030,922)
-63,072,465
9%
42.08
43.67
44.86
43.88
42.79
37.94
79,007,906
1,683,738,606
336,747,721
(89,379,600)
-62,958,545
WACC
10%
39.40
40.85
41.92
40.94
39.91
82,958,302
2,020,486,327
336,747,721
(29,482,517)
-19,025,449
12%
34.67
35.87
36.70
35.75
34.81
15%
10%
Second Period - Slowed Growth
2018
6
6,202,099,365
434,146,956
445,371,271
708,279,748
11,224,315
4,033,050
2,500,491
2019
7
6,822,309,302
477,561,651
489,908,398
779,107,722
12,346,747
4,033,050
2,500,491
5%
3.50%
Perpetuity
2020 Residual
8
7,163,424,767
501,439,734
515,021,155
818,063,108
13,581,421
4,033,050
2,500,491
87,106,217
2,323,559,276
303,072,949
57,692,596
34,107,077
13.58%
31.43
32.47
33.15
32.21
31.33
91,461,527
2,555,915,204
232,355,928
168,591,434
91,309,086
96,034,604
2,683,710,964
127,795,760
293,691,282
145,721,494
8,391,179,488
4,163,471,256
1.1%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
2.0%
Nike comparison
sales
% growth
net income
%growth
% of sales
1977
28711
1978
71001
147%
1979
149830
111%
1980
269775
80%
1981
457742
70%
1982
693582
52%
1983
867212
25%
0.807677
1522
3856
153%
5%
9723
152%
6%
12505
29%
5%
25955
108%
6%
49036
89%
7%
57004
16%
7%
10166
4%
16172
59%
4%
39731
-100% #DIV/0!
0%
5%
29624
123%
11%
74687
152%
16%
5%
ppe net
% growth
%of sales
working capital
% growth
% of sales
2645
9%
5351
102%
8%
13266
148%
9%
92%
112170
50%
16%
209871
87%
24%
1984
919806
6%
1985
956371
4%
1986
1069222
12%
1987
877257
-18%
1988
1203440
37%
1989
1710803
42%
1990
2235244
31%
1991
3003000
34%
1992
3405000
13%
43%
40690
-29%
4%
10270
-75%
1%
59211
477%
6%
35879
-39%
4%
101695
183%
8%
167047
64%
10%
242958
45%
11%
287000
18%
10%
329000
15%
10%
55915
41%
6%
50748
-9%
5%
39834
-22%
4%
48480
22%
6%
57703
19%
5%
89900
56%
5%
159000
77%
7%
292000
84%
10%
346000
18%
10%
234247
12%
25%
217849
-7%
23%
278784
28%
26%
325200
17%
37%
298816
-8%
25%
422000
41%
25%
564000
34%
25%
666000
18%
22%
967000
45%
28%
13%
1993
3930000
15%
1994
3789000
-4%
1995
4760000
26%
1996
6470000
36%
1997
9186000
42%
1998
9553000
4%
1999
8776000
-8%
2000
8995000
2%
2001
9488000
5%
365000
11%
9%
298000
-18%
8%
399000
34%
8%
553000
39%
9%
795000
44%
9%
399000
-50%
4%
451000
13%
5%
579000
28%
6%
589000
2%
6%
378000
9%
10%
406000
7%
11%
554000
36%
12%
642000
16%
10%
922000
44%
10%
1153000
25%
12%
1265000
10%
14%
1583000
25%
18%
1618000
2%
17%
1165000
20%
30%
1209000
4%
32%
938000
-22%
20%
1246000
33%
19%
1964000
58%
21%
1829000
-7%
19%
1818000
-1%
21%
1456000
-20%
16%
1839000
26%
19%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9893000 10697000 12253000 13739000 14954000 16325000 18627000 19176000 19014000
4%
8%
15%
12%
9%
9%
14%
3%
-1%
663000
13%
7%
474000
-29%
4%
945000
99%
8%
1211000
28%
9%
1392000
15%
9%
1491000
7%
9%
1883000
26%
10%
1487000
-21%
8%
1907000
28%
10%
1614000
0%
16%
1620000
0%
15%
1586000
-2%
13%
1605000
1%
12%
1657000
3%
11%
1678000
1%
10%
1891000
13%
10%
1957000
3%
10%
1931000
-1%
10%
2321000
26%
23%
2767000
19%
26%
3503000
27%
29%
4352000
24%
32%
4736000
9%
32%
5492000
16%
34%
5518000
0%
30%
6457000
17%
34%
7595000
18%
40%
0.344121
2011
20862000
10%
Average
25%
2133000
12%
10%
7.3%
2115000
10%
10%
9%
7339000
-3%
35%
24%
40%
if you exclude the first six years of growth of 92% growth, nike has averaged 13
$
$
1,472,684,000
47,200,000,000
0.025
0.064
0.096
3,417,757,930
0.18338578
5,800,319,087
0.111583565
0.14692292
Market Share
3 Conclusion
1. In this model, UA is projected to double market share in five years; and triple market share in 10 years
2. In the right link, it states that the US Sports apparel market is growing at .8%. http://www.marketresearch.com
3. In this model, a 2.5% market growth rate was assumed- substantially optomistic
(1,299,680,913)
ADDYY
COLM
1,500,000,000 $ 18,000,000,000 $ 1,700,000,000
3.2%
38.1%
3.6%
ially optomistic
UA has increased in
market share substantially
since it started in the late
90's
LULU
SKINs(private)
Total
$ 1,000,000,000 $ 1,000,000,000 $ 47,200,000,000
2.1%
2.1%
UA : Multiple
compression gear
offerings from $30 $70
$70
Addidas: $55
Reebok:
compression shirts
starting at $20.98
Sports Apparel
Market
US = $47Bil
Many low price point
producers: $10 and
up
Global = $122
bil
competitors
have stronger
global
distribution
No patents on
materials
In what ways
other than its
brand can UA
differentiate?
established globa
Addidas: $55-$65
Skins: a private
company that is
established globally.
Prices range from
$70 - $250
1,472,684,000
1.22E+11
0.032
0.024142361
0.036213541
3,447,768,128
0.185456702
6053796195
0.119174868
-0.259428838
2011
1.2%
Given UA's global psotion relative to competitors without any competitive advantage, it is difficult to see there m
http://www.reportlinker.com/ci02121/Sport-Clothing-and-Accessories.html - reports that sports apparel industry
3 Conclusions
1. It should first be noted that in our fcff model, UA needs to reach the goals by 2020 (8 years). In this model, they
2. UA current global market share is 1.2%, I project them doubling market share in five years, and tripling market
should perform sensitivity on expected growth rate of the market-also a scenario analysis
(1,046,203,805)
y 2020 (8 years). In this model, they are given 10 years to get there.
2003
2004
Page 13
Profile of US Apparel consumption (Wholesale market; page 13)
(In millions of Garments)
$
% growth
1997
15,578 $
1998
16,092 $
3.3%
1999
17,654
9.7%
2005
2006
2007
2000
18,690 $
5.9%
2001
17,967 $
-3.9%
2002
18,193 $
1.3%
2008
average
130,271,231
-0.3%
8.2%
2003
18,990 $
4.4%
2004
19,052 $
0.3%
2005
20,397
7.1%
2006
20,481
0.4%
2007
20,137.60
-1.7%
2008
19,507.80
-3.1%
average
2.1%