CSCI 5512: Articial Intelligence II (Spring12) Homework 1

(Due Mon, Feb 13, 12:45pm)

1. (20 points) Consider the Burglary network in Figure 1.

P(B) P(E)

Burglary
B E P(A|B,E)

.001

Earthquake

.002

T T F F

T F T F

.95 .94 .29 .001

Alarm

P(J|A)

A P(M|A)

JohnCalls

T F

.90 .05

MaryCalls

T F

.70 .01

Figure 1: The Burglary network. (a) (10 points) Using enumeration, compute the probability P (e|j = T, m = T ),1 i.e., probability of Earthquake given John has not called and Mary has called. (b) (10 points) Using variable elimination, compute the probability P (b|j = T, m = T ). 2. (15 points) Consider the Burglary network in Figure 1. Each of the 5 variables in the network is boolean, i.e., can take two possible values. Hence, in order to determine the marginal distributions of each variable, it is sucient to determine the probability of one of the possible outcomes for each variable. Using the sum-product algorithm, compute the marginal probabilities P (a), P (j), and P (m). 3. (20 points) Consider the Chest Clinic network in Figure 2 for diagnosis of lung disease (tuberculosis, lung cancer, or both, or neither). In this model, a visit to Asia is assumed to increase the probability of tuberculosis. With proper reasoning, state if the following conditional independence assumptions are true or false: (a) Tuberculosis Smoking | Shortness of Breath, i.e., t s|d (b) Lung Cancer Bronchitis | Smoking, i.e., l b|s (c) Visit to Asia Smoking | Lung Cancer, i.e., a s|l (d) Visit to Asia Smoking | Lung Cancer, Shortness of Breath, i.e., a s|l, d
Since Earthquake is a boolean variable, it is sucient to compute p(e = T |j = F, m = T ), where (j = T ) refers to (JohnCalls = T rue), and (m = T ) refers to (M aryCalls = T rue). We follow a similar notation for other problems.
1

Figure 2: The Chest Clinic network. 4. (20 points) Consider the Chest Clinic network in Figure 2. Using a method of your choice, calculate by hand the values for p(d), p(d|s = T ), p(d|s = F ). The conditional probability tables (CPT) for the network are as follows: p(a = T ) = 0.01 p(t = T |a = T ) = 0.05 p(l = T |s = T ) = 0.1 p(b = T |s = T ) = 0.6 p(x = T |e = T ) = 0.98 p(d = T |e = T, b = T ) = 0.9 p(d = T |e = F, b = T ) = 0.8 p(s = T ) = 0.5 p(t = T |a = F ) = 0.01 p(l = T |s = F ) = 0.01 p(b = T |s = F ) = 0.3 p(x = T |e = F ) = 0.05 p(d = T |e = T, b = F ) = 0.7 p(d = T |e = F, b = F ) = 0.1 ,

and p(e = T |t, l) = 0 only if both t and l are F , and 1 otherwise. 5. (25 points) Consider the Markov blanket of X in Figure 3, where its parents are denoted by U , its children are denoted by Y , and childrens parents are denoted by Z. Let all other nodes be denoted by V .

U1

...

Um

X Z 1j Z nj

Y1

...

Yn

Figure 3: Markov blanket of X.

(a) (10 points) Show that the conditional probability of X given its Markov blanket M B(X) = (U, Y, Z), is given by P (X|M B(X)) P (X|P arents(X))
Y Children(X)

P (Y |P arents(Y )) .

(1)

(b) (15 points) Using the conditional independence implied by the structure of the Bayesian network in Figure 3, show that X is conditionally independent of V given its Markov blanket M B(X) = (U, Y, Z), i.e., P (X|M B(X), V ) = P (X|M B(X)) . (2)