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February 5, 2013
Corporation Bank
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq)
10.0 10.7 (25.3)
`421 `517
12 Months
2QFY13
803 686 406
3QFY12
862 826 402
% chg (yoy)
2.5 (8.1) (24.6)
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2013, Corporation Bank reported subdued operating performance, with operating income and operating profit de-growth of 2.5% and 8.1% yoy, respectively, which was in-line with our expectations. Higher slippages during the quarter, pushed up the loan loss provisioning by 83.2% yoy and hence earnings declined by 24.6% yoy.
Business growth moderates; NIM improves sequentially: During 3QFY2013, the banks business grew at a moderate pace, as both advances and deposits registered a growth of 13.1% and 10.9% yoy, respectively. While, saving deposits grew at a moderate pace of 10.5% yoy, growth in current deposits came in subdued at 1.8% yoy, which resulted in moderate CASA deposits growth of 7.3% yoy. The CASA ratio for the bank dipped by 67bp yoy and 45bp qoq to 20.5%. Although yield on advances moderated by 32bp qoq, the NIM improved by 12bp sequentially to 2.4%, aided by a 24bp qoq fall in costs of deposits and 5bp sequentially higher yield on investments. Despite a moderate growth of 13.5% yoy in CEB income, the overall non-interest income (excluding treasury) de-grew by 3.1% yoy, largely due to lower recoveries and decline in forex income. Recoveries from written-off accounts de-grew by 19.5% yoy, while forex income for the bank halved on a yoy basis. The treasury income for the bank came in at `67cr compared to `112cr reported in 3QFY2012. Hence, the overall other income witnessed a higher decline of 12.4% yoy to `387cr. The banks asset quality pressures continued during 3QFY2013, with both gross and net NPA levels increasing on an absolute basis by 17.2% and 25.6% qoq, respectively. Gross and Net NPA ratios were higher sequentially by 21bp and 26bp respectively to 2.2% and 1.6%. Slippages during the quarter came in at `701cr, much higher than `445cr in 2QFY2013 and `373cr in 3QFY2012. The annualized slippages ratio came in at 2.8% compared to 1.8% in 2QFY2013 and 1.7% in 3QFY2012. PCR dipped by 242bp sequentially to 58.0%. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth ~`255cr, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `8,895cr. Outlook and valuation: The banks low CASA ratio (20.5% as of 3QFY2013) has contributed to higher margin pressures. At the current market price, the stock trades at 0.6x FY2014E ABV, below its historic trading range of 0.7-1.4x and median of 1.0x. We value the bank at 0.8x FY2014E ABV and recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `517. Key financials (standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.5 30.6 3.9 7.0
3m 5.3 7.7
FY2011 2,940 54.5 1,413 20.8 2.4 95.4 4.4 0.9 1.1 21.9
FY2012 3,147 7.0 1,576 11.5 2.1 06.4 4.0 0.8 1.0 20.4
FY2013E 3,459 9.9 1,433 (9.1) 2.1 96.7 4.4 0.7 0.8 16.2
FY2014E 4,167 20.5 1,480 3.3 2.2 99.9 4.2 0.6 0.8 14.9
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
3QFY13 3,871 2,838 911 1 120 2,987 883 387 320 239 67 44 37 1,270 511 263 248 759 406 324 (1) 83 353 50 303 14.1
2QFY13 3,744 2,811 825 11 98 2,941 803 326 280 239 46 25 15 1,129 443 204 240 686 269 229 (24) 64 417 11 406 2.7
% chg (qoq) 3.4 1.0 10.4 (87.1) 23.1 1.6 10.0 18.7 14.3 (0.3) 45.4 75.1 144.3 12.5 15.3 29.3 3.4 10.7 51.1 41.3 30.5 (15.4) 342.9 (25.3) 1139bp
3QFY12 3,363 2,457 816 12 78 2,501 862 442 330 210 112 55 65 1,303 478 247 230 826 301 177 50 74 524 122 402 23.3
% chg (yoy) 15.1 15.5 11.6 (87.7) 55.3 19.4 2.5 (12.4) (3.1) 13.5 (39.8) (19.5) (43.0) (2.5) 7.1 6.5 7.8 (8.1) 34.7 83.2 12.1 (32.7) (59.3) (24.6) (922)bp
9MFY13 11,266 8,390 2,524 32 320 8,771 2,495 1,041 885 685 156 90 110 3,536 1,421 706 715 2,115 891 793 (90) 189 1,223 144 1,079 11.8
9MFY12 9,432 6,872 2,265 25 270 7,119 2,313 1,130 861 595 269 127 139 3,443 1,341 697 643 2,102 673 440 140 94 1,429 274 1,155 19.2
% chg (yoy) 19.4 22.1 11.4 26.9 18.7 23.2 7.9 (7.9) 2.7 15.0 (42.0) (29.1) (20.8) 2.7 6.0 1.3 11.1 0.6 32.4 80.3 101.4 (14.4) (47.5) (6.5) (742)bp
Var. (%) 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.0 56.1 (26.0) (47.9) (20.5)
February 5, 2013
3QFY13 2QFY13 % chg (qoq) 3QFY12 % chg (yoy) 104,443 74.4 9,818 18,904 28,722 20.5 12.6 8.1 8.1 11.6 7.8 2.4 40.3 2,284 2.2 1,698 1.6 58.0 2.8 0.8 98,161 68.3 10,786 19,276 30,062 20.9 13.1 8.4 8.3 11.9 7.7 2.2 39.3 1,949 2.0 1,351 1.4 60.4 1.8 0.6 6.4 611bp (9.0) (1.9) (4.5) (45)bp (48)bp (32)bp (24)bp (32)bp 5bp 12bp 99bp 17.2 21bp 25.6 25bp (242)bp 102bp 21bp 92,378 73.0 9,641 17,115 26,756 21.1 12.8 7.9 7.6 11.9 7.8 2.7 36.6 1,249 1.4 885 1.0 62.9 1.7 0.5 13.1 10.9 143bp 1.8 10.5 7.3 (67)bp (27)bp 21bp 42bp (36)bp (1)bp (31)bp 362bp 82.9 83bp 91.8 67bp (486)bp 107bp 30bp
140,384 143,738
(2.3) 126,607
February 5, 2013
28.4 28.5
15.7 16.6
24.9 13.9
20.2 19.2
13.1 10.9
3QFY13
66.0 64.0
11.87
11.75
11.50
Subdued performance on non-interest income (excl. treasury) front, on back of lower recoveries and decline in forex income
Despite a moderate growth of 13.5% yoy in CEB income, the overall non-interest income (excluding treasury) de-grew by 3.1% yoy, largely due to lower recoveries and decline in forex income. Recoveries from written-off accounts de-grew by 19.5% yoy to `44cr. Income from forex transactions for the bank halved on a yoy basis to `28cr. The treasury income for the bank came in at `67cr compared to `112cr reported in 3QFY2012. Hence, overall other income witnessed a higher decline of 12.4% yoy to `387cr.
1.4 1.0
1.3 0.9
1.7 1.2
2.0 1.4
1.7
0.8
2.9
1.8
2.8
2.2 1.6
0.5
0.2
0.5
56.0 54.0
Opex to average assets (%, RHS) 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
216
239
204
263
25.0 20.0
February 5, 2013
Investment arguments
Modern and cost-efficient network to support moderate CASA growth
During FY2007-12, the CASA deposits of the bank grew at a 15.9% CAGR, which was quite robust relative to its peers. We believe the banks efficient network (1,653 branches currently) supported by a consistent track record in early adoption of emerging technologies creates a positive traction in its deposit franchise, which is tempered mainly by substantial competition from larger banks.
Earlier estimates FY2013E FY2014E 13.0 14.0 21.1 2.0 (9.7) 5.0 12.5 2.0 62.0 14.0 13.0 20.4 2.2 4.0 15.0 15.0 1.7 67.5
Revised estimates FY2013 EFY2014E 13.0 12.0 21.5 2.1 (6.6) 7.0 12.5 2.5 60.0 15.0 12.0 21.0 2.2 0.5 15.0 12.5 1.8 70.0
February 5, 2013
Earlier estimates 3,424 1,411 4,835 1,938 2,897 1,001 1,897 341 1,555
Revised estimates 3,459 1,460 4,919 1,956 2,963 1,325 1,638 205 1,433
Var. (%) 1.0 3.5 1.7 0.9 2.3 32.4 (13.6) (40.0) (7.9)
Earlier estimates 4,102 1,468 5,570 2,229 3,341 1,152 2,189 710 1,479
FY2014E Revised estimates 4,167 1,467 5,634 2,225 3,409 1,353 2,056 576 1,480
Var. (%) 1.6 (0.0) 1.2 (0.2) 2.0 17.5 (6.1) (19.0) 0.1
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
February 5, 2013
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
Company background
Corporation Bank is a mid-sized PSU bank, with a balance sheet size of ~`1.6lakh cr. The bank has a network of 1,650+ branches, mainly concentrated in the southern states (~50%), with majority being in the parent state of Karnataka (~26%). The banks recent branch additions have been largely in rural and semi-urban areas, which have aided a shift in its branch mix. Resultantly, rural and semi-urban branches now account for ~52% of the total branches as against ~44% earlier.
February 5, 2013
February 5, 2013
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.2 0.5 1.7 0.6 2.3 0.9 3.2 1.4 1.8 0.6 1.2 16.8 19.6 1.9 0.5 1.4 0.6 2.1 0.9 2.9 1.3 1.7 0.5 1.2 18.6 21.9 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.2 1.9 0.9 2.8 1.3 1.5 0.4 1.1 19.8 21.9 2.0 0.6 1.4 0.2 1.7 0.8 2.4 1.2 1.3 0.3 1.0 19.9 20.4 2.0 0.8 1.2 0.1 1.4 0.7 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.8 19.5 16.2 2.2 0.7 1.5 0.1 1.5 0.7 2.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.8 19.3 14.9 6.8 1.2 3.0 5.2 1.0 3.9 4.4 0.9 4.7 4.0 0.8 4.9 4.4 0.7 4.7 4.2 0.6 4.9 62.2 341.4 12.5 81.6 402.6 16.5 95.4 481.5 20.0 106.4 542.3 20.5 96.7 585.1 20.0 99.9 689.2 20.5 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 75.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 80.8 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.4 74.7 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.4 65.3 2.5 1.6 2.5 0.7 60.0 3.0 1.3 1.8 0.6 70.0 31.4 65.6 13.6 8.9 28.6 68.2 15.4 9.3 26.0 74.4 14.1 8.7 22.1 73.8 13.0 8.3 21.5 74.5 12.6 8.5 21.0 76.5 12.2 8.4 2.3 37.4 1.2 19.6 2.0 37.1 1.2 21.9 2.4 38.5 1.1 21.9 2.1 37.9 1.0 20.4 2.1 39.8 0.8 16.2 2.2 39.5 0.8 14.9 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
February 5, 2013
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Corporation Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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