Commodities Evening Update

Friday | February 8, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | February 8, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Chinese CPI rose to 2 percent in the month of January. Chines PPI declined 1.6 percent in the last month. European markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from favourable data from the China and as European leaders are preparing for the first ever cut in the blocs budget. US futures and and Asian shares were little changed. Spot gold prices are trading on a flat note extending losses of the previous day after European Central Bank said that recovery might be seen in the Euro region but there are more risks at the downside. However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices. Taking cues from rise in base metals along with weakness in the DX supported and upside in the spot silver prices. However, weakness in the Spot gold prices restricted gains in the spot silver prices. MCX Silver prices are however trading 0.3 percent lower due to long liquidation by the market participants. Depreciation in the rupee however, restricted fall in the prices today. The base metals complex are trading higher taking cues from positive economic data from the China along with weakness in the DX. Chinese exports jumped 25 percent more than expected raising hopes that the economy is on the path of recovery. However, rise in the LME inventories in most of the base metals except for zinc restricted gains in the base metals pack. Depreciation in the Rupee has led prices of base metals on the MCX higher. Copper prices are trading higher 0.22 percent taking cues from unexpected rise in the exports from China along with weakness in the DX. Rise in the exports raised hopes that that the largest consumer of the industrial metal is witnessing recovery and thereby translating into improved demand in the coming days for the red metal. In the domestic markets, prices are trading higher taking cues from international copper prices along with depreciation in the rupee. Nymex crude oil prices are trading 0.3 percent higher today. Rise in the crude imports by China added to the gains in the crude oil prices. China imported 24.87 million metric tonnes of crude more than it exported in the January 2013. Weakness in the DX are also acting as a supportive factor for the crude oil prices. On the domestic bourses, prices are trading in the positive territory on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5929.10 19577.19 11179.97 1930.00 16415.34 High 5953.70 19648.07 11299.71 1955.86 16563.40

as at 4.30 pm 08 February 13
Low 5883.65 19414.80 11135.89 1929.81 16378.46 Last 5903.50 19484.77 11153.16 1950.90 16378.46 % Chg from Prev day -0.59 -0.49 -1.80 0.99 0.93
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 08 February 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 80.30 1.3396 53.22 High 80.34 1.3429 53.67 Low 80.025 1.3379 53.15 Current 80.085 1.3412 53.54 % Chg from Prev day -0.21 0.12 0.60
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 08 February 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Feb 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Feb 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Feb13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Feb13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Feb13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Feb13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1671.11 1671.50 30790 31.44 28.23 58369 95.92 117.48 5137 8219.00 441.80 2157.50 115.30 2417 129.30 18150 974.00 2103.00 111.65

1673.30 1672.50 30841 31.56 31.45 58645 96.19 117.94 5160 8253.00 444.15 2181.50 116.20 2425 129.80 18327 982.30 2112.75 112.05

1667.64 1669.90 30782 31.35 31.45 57762 95.70 117.31 5137 8211.75 441.8 2155.00 115.20 2411 129.05 18149 974.00 2101.75 111.50

1670.50 1669.90 30787 31.48 31.45 58223 96.10 117.84 5156 8228.25 443 2177.75 115.90 2413 129.10 18321 981 2104.25 111.60

-0.01 -0.03 0.03 0.13 0.20 -0.26 0.28 0.51 0.43 0.22 +0.35 0.95 0.83 -0.10 0.04 1.00 0.94 0.02 0.22

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | February 8, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect gold prices to trade in a narrow range taking cues from weakness in the DX which is supporting an upside however dovish statement by the European Central bank that the region might recover in 2013 but there are downside risks also is creating risk aversion. Base metals are however expected to trade on a positive note owing to rise in the exports data from the China raising hopes that the economy is on the path of recovery. However, week long holiday next week might cause long liquidation. Crude oil prices are expected to trade on a bearish note.

Technical Outook for evening session 8 February 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Feb'13 Nymex Crude Oil Feb13 Natural Gas Feb13 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Feb13 Lead Feb13 Aluminum Feb13 Nickel Feb13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30569 1653 57396 30.87 5070 94.55 172.9 439.6 114.15 128 110.4 968.7 Support 1 30686 1662 57760 31.15 5108 95.25 175.3 441.1 114.95 128.65 110.95 973 CMP 30790 1670.4 58215 31.5 5153 96.07 176.7 442.9 115.85 129.15 111.6 981 Resistance1 30855 1676 58358 31.61 5164 96.3 179.7 444.3 116.2 129.8 112.05 983 Resistance 2 30946 1683 58618 31.81 5198 96.95 182.7 445.8 116.95 130.7 112.55 988

Important Events for Today

Indicator Current Account FOMC Member Evans Speaks Trade Balance CPI y/y PPI y/y New Loans EU Economic Summit Trade Balance Country Japan US China China China China EU US Time (IST) 5:20 am 6:30 am Tentative 11:00 am 11:00 am 1:30 pm Day 2 7:00 pm Actual 0.10T 29.2B 2.0% -1.6% 1070B Forecast 0.24T 24.3B 2.1% -1.6% 1000B -45.8B Previous 0.23T 31.6B 2.5% -1.9% 454B -48.7B Impact High Medium High High Medium Medium High High