VIII.

SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

1. Brasil: Indicadores Macroeconmicos

2. Indicadores de Preos
3A. Indicadores de Preos, Juros e Cmbio aps o Plano Real
3B. Inflao: Mdias Anuais
3C. Taxas de Variao em 12 Meses no Regime de Metas de Inflao
4. Indicadores Conjunturais da Indstria Taxa de Crescimento
5. ndice da Produo Industrial
6. Composio do Produto Interno Bruto: tica da Oferta
7. Composio do Produto Interno Bruto: tica da Demanda
8. Taxa de Crescimento do PIB: tica da Oferta
9. Taxa de Crescimento do PIB: tica da Demanda
10. PIB: Contribuio ao Crescimento
11. Utilizao da Capacidade Instalada (UCI) - mdia anual
12. Composio da Poupana
13. Indicadores de Nvel de Atividade, Emprego e Renda
14. Balano de Pagamentos: Contas Selecionadas
15. Indicadores de Endividamento e Solvncia Externa
16. Balano em Conta-Corrente
17. Balano em Conta-Corrente: Outros Servios Coeficientes Relativos
18. ndice de Preo e Quantum de Exportao (Total e Fator Agregado)
19. ndice de Preo e Quantum de Exportao e Importao
20. Balana Comercial Brasileira: Exportaes por Fator Agregado
21A. Balana Comercial Brasileira: Importaes por Categoria de Uso
21B. Balana Comercial Brasileira: Importaes por Categoria de Uso
22. ndices da Taxa de Cmbio Efetiva Real para o Total das Exportaes e para Exportaes de Manufaturados
23. Indicadores Monetrios e Fiscais
24. Arrecadao Tributria
25. Necessidades de Financiamento do Setor Pblico
26. Dvida Lquida do Setor Pblico
27. Dvida Consolidada
28. Dedues
29. Dvida Consolidada Lquida
30. Dvida Contratual
31. Receita Corrente Lquida
32. Dvida Consolidada Lquida / Receita Consolidada Lquida
33. Cotaes das Moedas Internacionais
34. Taxas de Juros Internacionais e ndice de Aes
35. Taxas de crescimento do pib em regies e pases selecionados (%)
36. Renda domiciliar per capita mdia por dcimo

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.1
BRASIL: INDICADORES MACROECONMICOS

Ano

Variao do
Crescimento do deflator implcito
PIB
do PIB
(%)
(%)

PIB
nominal a

IGP
[dez./dez. (%)]

Populao
Taxa de cmbio
)b
(mil habitantes) mdia (US$

PIB (US$)

Carga tributria
(% do PIB)

Crescimento do
e
PIB mundial
(%)

Crescimento do
PIB na Amrica
Latina
(%)

1948
9.7
5.8
207
8.0
49,229
18.72
11,074
14.0
1949
7.7
8.3
242
12.3
50,545
18.72
12,917
14.4
1950
6.8
9.0
282
12.4
51,944
18.72
15,043
14.4
1951
4.9
18.1
349
12.3
53,428
18.72
18,638
15.7
1952
7.3
9.6
410
12.7
54,994
18.72
21,918
15.4
1953
4.7
13.9
490
20.5
56,638
39.55
12,378
15.2
1954
7.8
27.2
671
25.9
58,358
59.78
11,230
15.8
1955
8.8
11.5
815
12.1
60,150
71.43
11,406
15.1
1956
2.9
22.7
1,029
24.5
62,011
70.40
14,616
16.4
1957
7.7
12.7
1,250
7.0
63,936
74.23
16,833
16.7
1958
10.8
12.3
1,555
24.4
65,924
127.36
12,209
18.7
1959
9.8
35.9
2,320
39.4
67,970
151.35
15,326
17.9
1960
9.4
25.4
3,182
30.5
70,070
186.47
17,066
17.4
1961
8.6
34.6
4,653
47.8
72,223
269.80
17,245
16.4
3.1
1962
6.6
50.3
7,452
51.6
74,421
388.00
19,207
15.8
4.6
1963
0.6
78.4
13,376
79.9
76,663
575.00
23,262
16.1
5.0
1964
3.4
89.5
26,214
92.1
78,941
1253.00
20,921
17.0
6.1
1965
2.4
58.9
42,662
34.2
81,253
1899.00
22,466
19.0
5.2
1966
6.7
37.9
62,789
39.1
83,592
2220.00
28,283
21.0
5.3
1967
4.2
26.5
82,783
25.0
85,955
2.66
31,086
20.5
4.1
1968
9.8
26.7
115,171
25.5
88,337
3.40
33,874
23.3
4.5
1969
9.5
20.1
151,400
19.3
90,733
4.07
37,162
24.9
6.0
1970
10.4
16.3
194,315
19.3
93,139
4.59
42,302
26.0
3.4
1971
11.3
19.4
258,296
19.5
95,551
5.29
48,849
25.3
3.7
1972
11.9
19.9
346,581
15.7
97,975
5.93
58,406
26.0
4.7
1973
14.0
29.6
511,834
15.5
100,417
6.13
83,551
25.1
5.9
1974
8.2
34.6
745,136
34.5
102,883
6.79
109,740
25.1
2.3
1975
5.2
33.9
1,049,518
29.4
105,380
8.13
129,140
25.2
1.4
1976
10.3
41.2
1,633,963
46.3
107,915
10.67
153,093
25.1
5.3
1977
4.9
45.4
2,492,978
38.8
110,494
14.14
176,257
25.6
4.4
1978
5.0
38.2
3,617,246
40.8
113,124
18.08
200,091
25.7
4.1
1979
6.8
54.4
5,961,236
77.2
115,811
26.82
222,285
24.7
4.1
1980
9.2
92.1
12,508
110.2
118,563
52.81
236,841
24.5
2.0
1981
-4.3
100.5
24,016
95.2
121,381
93.35
257,269
25.2
2.3
1982
0.8
101.0
48,681
99.7
124,251
180.37
269,900
26.2
0.9
1983
-2.9
131.5
109,386
211.0
127,140
580.20
188,532
26.9
2.9
1984
5.4
201.7
347,886
223.8
130,083
1842.61
188,801
24.2
4.7
1985
7.8
248.5
1,307,719
235.1
132,999
6222.28
210,167
23.8
3.7
1986
7.5
149.2
3,502,631
65.0
135,814
13655.00
256,509
26.5
3.5
1987
3.5
206.2
11,103,966
415.8
138,586
39523.00
280,949
24.3
3.7
1988
-0.1
628.0
80,782,983
1037.6
141,313
265572.00
304,185
23.4
4.5
1989
3.2
1304.4
1,170,387
1782.9
143,997
2.83
413,564
23.7
3.7
1990
-4.3
2737.0
31,759,185
1476.7
146,593
68.06
466,635
29.6
3.0
1991
1.0
416.7
165,786,498
480.2
149,094
409.25
405,097
24.4
1.5
1992
-0.5
968.2
1,762,636,611
1157.8
151,547
4,551
387,277
25.0
2.0
1993
4.7
2001.3
38,767,064,000
2708.2
153,986
90.23
429,647
25.3
2.0
1994
5.3
2251.7
349,205
1093.9
156,431
0.639
546,219
27.9
3.4
1995
4.4
93.5
705,641
14.8
158,875
0.918
769,007
28.4
3.3
1996
2.2
17.1
843,966
9.3
161,323
1.005
839,704
28.6
3.7
1997
3.4
7.6
939,147
7.5
163,780
1.078
871,200
28.6
4.0
1998
0.0
4.2
979,276
1.7
166,252
1.161
843,827
29.3
2.6
1999
0.3
8.5
1,065,000
20.0
168,754
1.815
586,866
31.1
3.6
2000
4.3
6.2
1,179,482
9.8
171,280
1.830
644,452
30.4
4.8
2001
1.3
9.0
1,302,136
10.4
173,808
2.350
553,998
31.9
2.3
2002
2.7
10.6
1,477,822
26.4
176,304
2.921
505,904
32.3
2.9
2003
1.1
13.7
1,699,948
7.7
178,741
3.078
552,239
31.9
3.6
2004
5.7
8.0
1,941,498
12.1
181,106
2.926
663,552
32.8
4.9
2005
3.2
7.2
2,147,239
1.2
183,383
2.435
881,754
33.83
4.5
2006
4.0
6.1
2,369,484
3.8
185,564
2.176
1,088,855
34.12
5.1
2007
6.1
5.9
2,661,344
7.9
187,642
1.948
1,366,295
34.71
5.2
2008
5.1
7.4
3,004,881
9.1
189,613
1.835
1,637,924
3.0
2009
-0.2
4.8
3,143,015
-1.4
191,481
1.998
1,573,395
Fontes: PIB, deflator implcito e populao: IBGE, "Estatsticas do sculo XX", 2003, e IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Carga tributria: FGV/IBGE.
IGP:FGV. Taxa de cmbio oficial (cotao mdia - venda): Bacen. PIB mundial: International Financial Statistics Yearbook. PIB Amrica Latina: CEPAL.
Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
a
1947/66: Cr$ bilhes; 1967/69: NCr$ milhes; 1970/79: Cr$ milhes; 1980/85: Cr$ bilhes; 1986/88: Cz$ milhes; 1989: NCr$ milhes; 1990/92: Cr$ milhes; 1993: CR$ milhes;
a partir de 1994: R$ milhes.
b
1945/66: Cr$; 1967/69: NCr$; 1970/85: Cr$; 1986/88: Cz$; 1989: NCr$; 1990/92: Cr$; 1993: CR$; a partir de 1994: R$.
c
PIB nominal dividido pela taxa de cmbio mdia do ano. US$ milhes.
d
At 1990, dados de Ricardo Varsano, com base nas Contas Nacionais.
e
Fonte: At 1989, IFS Yearbook FMI. A partir de 1990, World Economic Outlook.

4.7
2.7
4.9
5.9
3.0
4.5
6.2
6.3
4.1
6.1
4.9
2.6
7.0
6.6
4.2
3.4
7.5
5.4
4.4
4.3
6.9
7.1
6.9
6.7
6.9
8.4
7.1
3.2
4.4
4.8
4.4
6.6
6.1
0.3
-1.3
-2.9
3.5
3.6
3.6
2.9
0.6
0.9
0.3
3.8
3.2
3.3
5.2
1.1
3.8
5.5
2.6
0.4
3.9
0.4
-0.4
2.2
6.1
5.0
5.8
5.8
4.2
-1.8

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.2
INDICADORES DE PREOS

Ano

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

ndices centrados em 31/12

ndices mdios

IGP-DI (agosto de 1994=100)

IGP-DI (agosto de 1994=100)

0.00000000120
0.00000000233
0.00000000472
0.00000001473
0.00000004832
0.00000016558
0.00000026651
0.00000141766
0.00001726511
0.00036473458
0.00480345998
0.02866263003
0.36320495414
10.7194
108.0525
124.2871
135.7473
145.4001
148.0736
177.5482
194.4444
214.3359
273.6192
292.6252
327.3736
332.0264
344.1162
372.3075
404.2145
400.4110

Fonte: FGV. Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.

0.00000000083
0.00000000175
0.00000000342
0.00000000870
0.00000002790
0.00000009081
0.00000021998
0.00000071458
0.00000560678
0.00007960909
0.00226108083
0.01163895500
0.12702197500
2.7988
70.1621
117.4918
130.5275
140.8549
146.3303
162.8938
185.3271
204.5289
232.1494
285.0735
311.8758
330.4807
336.1817
353.2654
392.9434
399.9825

Taxa de variao [mdias

anuais (%)]
IGP-DI
100.21
109.88
95.45
154.48
220.68
225.52
142.25
224.83
684.63
1319.87
2740.23
414.75
991.35
2103.40
2406.87
67.46
11.10
7.91
3.89
11.32
13.77
10.36
13.50
22.80
9.40
5.97
1.73
5.08
11.23
1.79

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.3A
INDICADORES DE PREOS, JUROS E CMBIO APS O PLANO REAL
[taxas anuais (%)]
ndices de preos - variao (%)

Ano

IGP-M

IGP-DI IPA-EP-DI

IPC

INCC

1995
15.25
14.78
6.39
25.91
31.45
1996
9.20
9.34
8.09
11.34
9.56
1997
7.74
7.48
7.78
7.21
6.81
1998
1.78
1.70
1.51
1.66
2.75
1999
20.10
19.98
28.90
9.12
9.21
2000
9.95
9.81
12.06
6.21
7.66
2001
10.38
10.40
11.87
7.94
8.85
2002
25.31
26.41
35.41
12.18
12.87
2003
8.71
7.67
6.26
8.93
14.42
2004
12.41
12.14
14.67
6.27
11.02
2005
1.21
1.22
-0.97
4.93
6.84
2006
3.83
3.79
4.29
2.05
5.04
2007
7.75
7.89
9.44
4.60
6.15
2008
9.81
9.10
9.80
6.07
11.87
2009
-1.72
-1.43
-4.08
3.95
3.25
Fontes: IBGE, FGV e Bacen. Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.
a
Taxa de renumerao dos depsitos feitos no primeiro dia do ano.

IPA-OG
agricultura
-5.62
17.30
17.72
4.92
29.93
13.11
16.03
47.31
4.55
2.65
-6.34
6.92
24.82
1.64
-3.16

IPA-OG
indstria
13.06
3.88
3.13
-0.20
28.32
11.57
10.33
30.93
6.91
19.50
0.85
3.46
4.42
12.96
-4.43

Over/Selic
IPCA
22.41
9.56
5.22
1.65
8.94
5.97
7.67
12.53
9.30
7.60
5.69
3.14
4.46
5.90
4.31

INPC
21.98
9.12
4.34
2.49
8.43
5.27
9.44
14.74
10.38
6.13
5.05
2.81
5.16
6.48
4.11

TR a

TJLP

FIPE
23.17
10.03
4.83
-1.80
8.63
4.38
7.13
9.90
8.18
6.56
4.53
2.55
4.38
6.16
3.65

53.09
27.41
24.79
28.79
25.59
17.43
17.32
19.17
23.35
16.25
19.05
15.08
11.88
12.48
9.93

31.62
9.59
9.78
7.79
5.73
2.10
2.29
2.80
4.65
1.82
2.83
2.04
1.41
1.61
0.63

23.37
16.04
10.13
11.66
13.22
10.75
9.50
9.87
11.50
9.81
9.75
7.87
6.37
6.25
6.12

Dlar - segmento livre

(R$/US$)
Venda
Final de
Variao final
perodo
de perodo (%)
0.9725
1.0394
1.1164
1.2087
1.7890
1.9554
2.3204
3.5333
2.8892
2.6544
2.3407
2.1380
1.7713
2.3370
1.7412

14.95
6.88
7.41
8.27
48.01
9.30
18.67
52.27
-18.23
-8.13
-11.82
-8.66
-17.15
31.94
-25.49

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.3B
INFLAO: MDIAS ANUAIS
(em %) a

INPC
IPCA
IPA-EP-DI
Ano
1996
15.52
15.76
6.33
1997
5.99
6.93
8.13
1998
3.78
3.20
3.55
1999
4.85
4.86
16.58
2000
6.22
7.04
18.11
2001
7.49
6.84
12.60
2002
10.20
8.45
16.66
2003
16.96
14.71
27.56
2004
6.27
6.60
10.46
2005
5.76
6.87
5.57
2006
3.26
4.18
0.81
2007
4.09
3.64
5.60
2008
6.57
5.68
13.71
2009
5.04
4.89
-0.21
Fontes: FGV e IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
a
Comparao entre os ndices de preos mdios de anos consecutivos.

IGP-DI

Deflator do PIB
11.10
7.91
3.89
11.32
13.77
10.36
13.50
22.80
9.40
5.97
1.73
5.08
11.23
1.79

17.08
7.64
4.24
8.48
6.18
8.97
10.55
13.73
8.04
7.21
6.15
5.87
7.39
4.79

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.3C
TAXAS DE VARIAO EM 12 MESES NO REGIME DE METAS DE INFLAO
[janeiro/dezembro (%)]

Ano
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

IPCA
geral
8.94
5.97
7.67
12.53
9.30
7.60
5.69
3.14
4.46
5.90
4.31

ndice cheio
Preo livres
Comercial
No-comercial

Total
6.37
3.68
6.57
11.49
7.79
6.54
4.32
2.58
5.73
7.05
4.16

11.26
3.64
7.31
14.88
8.69
6.31
2.74
1.31
4.73
6.97
2.63

1.61
3.71
5.70
7.47
6.66
6.84
6.36
4.01
6.66
7.11
5.53

Fonte: IBGE. Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.

Com suavizao

a
b

Mdia aritmtica do ncleo por excluso, mdias aparadas e ncleo IPEA .

Preos
administ.
20.89
12.90
10.78
15.32
13.20
10.20
8.98
4.28
1.65
3.28
4.74

Por
excluso
5.59
4.15
5.49
8.27
8.16
7.93
5.55
3.56
4.10
6.08
5.07

Mdias
aparadas

Indicadores de ncleo
Ncleo
Mdia dos
Ipea
ncleos

5.23
5.30
7.47
8.84
11.12
7.53
6.76
4.63
3.99
4.77
4.28

7.89
4.76
7.25
11.63
11.61
7.40
5.46
2.51
3.85
6.18
4.38

6.24
4.74
6.74
9.58
10.30
7.62
5.92
3.57
3.98
5.68
4.58

onjuntura | mar 2010

eo
Ncleo Ipea
preos livres
7.20
4.63
6.91
11.25
11.06
7.17
5.28
2.13
3.75
6.15
4.01

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.3D
TAXAS DE VARIAO EM 12 MESES APS O PLANO REAL
[janeiro/dezembro (%)]

Ano

ndice geral

Alimentao

1995
22.41
8.42
1996
9.56
1.72
1997
5.22
1.20
1998
1.65
1.95
1999
8.94
8.12
2000
5.97
3.20
2001
7.67
9.63
2002
12.53
19.46
2003
9.30
7.48
2004
7.60
3.87
2005
5.69
1.99
2006
3.14
1.23
2007
4.46
10.77
2008
5.90
11.12
2009
4.31
3.17
Fonte: IBGE. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
a
Excludo o item educao.

Habitao
66.05
24.06
8.50
1.49
6.12
4.47
9.40
12.99
12.31
7.14
6.44
3.07
1.76
5.09
5.68

Artigos de
resid.
14.77
1.95
-2.87
-0.69
8.09
5.21
5.11
12.98
6.89
5.43
2.71
-2.71
-2.48
1.99
3.05

Vesturio
4.63
-1.63
-0.11
-1.11
4.16
4.13
4.89
8.82
10.21
9.96
7.10
5.07
3.78
7.30
6.11

Transporte
17.34
18.10
14.47
0.88
20.34
12.08
8.00
9.96
7.28
11.00
8.07
3.02
2.08
2.32
2.37

Comunicao

69.21
89.60
2.00
9.20
12.89
7.60
11.27
18.69
13.91
6.45
-0.24
0.69
1.79
1.07

Sade e
Cuidad. pess.
33.96
13.82
5.93
4.49
8.68
2.65
4.20
10.19
10.04
6.87
6.20
6.01
4.47
5.72
5.37

Despesas
Pessoaisa
38.96
8.77
3.72
3.09
2.78
5.65
6.92
8.37
9.58
6.85
6.98
7.26
6.54
7.35
8.03

Educao

18.37
7.18
5.71
3.97
4.77
7.32
8.43
10.24
10.43
7.17
6.24
4.16
4.58
6.11

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.4
INDICADORES CONJUNTURAIS DA INDSTRIA: TAXAS DE CRESCIMENTO
[em % a.a.]
Ano

Indstria geral

Indstria de
transformao

Extrativa mineral

Bens de capital

Bens intermedirios

Bens de
Bens de consumo Bens de consumo
consumo no(total)
durveis
durveis

1976

11.90

12.13

2.75

9.98

12.86

11.26

17.56

10.34

1977

2.11

2.27

-3.47

-5.30

6.95

0.24

0.24

0.24

1978

6.17

6.11

7.51

0.14

6.88

7.35

20.83

5.08

1979

6.97

6.85

12.05

7.81

9.16

4.17

7.52

3.51

1980

9.19

9.12

12.84

8.57

9.15

7.50

18.75

5.29

1981

-10.18

-10.38

-2.23

-19.43

-11.13

-3.90

-24.94

1.15

1982

0.03

-0.18

6.93

-14.80

2.85

3.12

7.99

2.10

1983

-5.18

-5.85

15.45

-19.24

-2.38

-4.21

-0.89

-4.94

1984

7.10

6.17

30.49

14.79

10.26

0.29

-7.47

2.08

1985

8.49

8.34

11.60

12.38

7.27

9.11

15.62

7.74

1986

10.94

11.30

3.69

21.89

8.37

11.05

20.41

8.95

1987

0.87

0.95

-0.75

-1.78

1.10

0.07

-5.42

1.43

1988

-3.24

-3.41

0.38

-2.08

-2.11

-3.50

0.60

-4.45

1989

2.93

2.88

3.96

0.27

2.43

3.62

2.38

3.92

1990

-8.90

-9.46

2.73

-15.49

-8.73

-5.32

-5.79

-5.21

1991

-2.61

-2.35

1.46

-1.29

-2.26

2.09

4.67

1.82

1992

-3.73

-4.08

0.71

-6.86

-2.44

-5.40

-13.02

-3.84

1993

7.51

8.07

0.48

9.62

5.47

10.18

29.10

6.69

1994

7.60

7.82

4.77

18.67

6.53

4.35

15.12

1.95

1995

1.83

1.72

3.16

0.25

0.21

6.23

14.48

4.15

1996

1.73

1.12

9.58

-14.06

2.90

5.30

11.22

3.65

1997

3.89

3.61

6.90

4.81

4.60

1.15

3.49

0.46

1998

-2.03

-3.26

12.16

-1.56

-0.71

-5.44

-19.57

-1.11

1999

-0.65

-1.61

8.49

-9.09

1.86

-2.83

-9.29

-1.22

2000

6.64

6.06

11.77

13.07

6.82

3.51

20.80

-0.44

2001

1.58

1.36

3.42

13.47

-0.14

1.16

-0.60

1.65

2002

2.73

0.53

18.96

-5.80

4.20

1.55

4.73

1.12

2003

0.05

-0.19

4.72

2.17

2.03

-2.67

2.97

-3.86

2004

8.30

8.53

4.29

19.70

7.38

7.33

21.84

4.03

2005

3.09

2.72

10.19

3.57

0.95

6.00

11.42

4.56

2006

2.82

2.57

7.35

5.75

2.06

3.34

5.77

2.66

2007

6.02

6.03

5.87

19.49

4.85

4.65

9.08

3.36

2008

3.10

3.06

3.79

14.30

1.54

1.93

3.78

1.35

2009

-7.38

-7.30

-8.79

-17.43

-8.81

-2.70

-6.38

-1.54

Fonte: IBGE. Elaborao IPEA/DIMAC.

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.5
NDICE DA PRODUO INDUSTRIAL
[srie dessazonalizada (base: mdia de 2002 = 100)]
Ano

Fev.

Mar.

Abr.

Mai.

Jun.

Jul.

Ago.

Set.

Out.

Nov.

Dez.

1991
73.26
72.08
1992
72.02
74.51
1993
77.02
78.67
1994
82.56
81.16
1995
93.67
93.30
1996
85.39
84.94
1997
91.24
91.66
1998
89.44
91.11
1999
88.49
87.11
2000
91.94
92.06
2001
99.14
100.16
2002
97.38
99.13
2003
98.66
98.26
2004
103.57
103.38
2005
110.69
108.61
2006
112.97
114.81
2007
116.95
118.08
2008
126.25
126.08
2009
106.91
109.05
2010
124.76
126.57
Fonte: IBGE. Elaborao IPEA/DIMAC.
Obs: Srie dessazonalizada pelo IBGE.

Jan.

71.22
73.38
78.39
81.95
93.30
84.80
92.80
90.73
87.23
93.57
98.75
100.32
98.39
105.56
110.79
113.83
119.62
126.97
110.57

76.07
73.83
79.17
81.59
91.89
87.01
91.00
91.48
88.74
94.44
98.41
99.13
98.73
105.67
110.99
114.44
119.67
127.51
112.00

77.38
72.14
81.05
83.69
81.59
87.03
90.47
93.28
90.35
94.17
99.17
97.86
97.65
107.62
111.86
115.54
121.25
125.97
113.75

80.71
73.43
80.43
84.02
87.17
86.79
93.78
91.95
89.71
96.47
97.94
98.99
96.33
107.69
115.01
113.25
121.65
130.59
114.72

82.29
73.44
80.90
84.41
85.01
91.63
92.60
92.74
88.59
97.15
97.70
99.89
97.27
109.32
111.86
115.30
121.53
130.99
117.56

82.85
73.03
80.02
88.29
83.07
89.72
93.36
91.20
90.07
97.13
97.72
99.39
98.30
110.08
112.57
115.57
123.61
128.75
118.68

79.37
74.78
79.70
88.78
83.82
90.80
95.65
90.80
91.24
95.97
95.85
99.92
102.36
110.81
111.17
114.89
122.30
130.76
120.73

81.34
74.82
80.44
88.84
84.89
91.42
96.15
88.09
92.72
98.05
93.65
104.45
104.54
111.18
111.09
115.39
127.54
127.79
124.30

76.47
76.31
79.95
90.26
85.44
91.99
91.85
88.86
92.01
97.23
94.74
103.28
105.83
110.94
111.85
116.47
124.98
118.22
123.42

71.81
75.48
81.31
95.21
86.39
91.17
87.83
85.84
92.82
101.60
95.02
100.25
103.67
111.13
114.94
117.25
124.24
103.81
123.32

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.6
COMPOSIO DO PIB: TICA DA OFERTA
[em % do PIB]
Indstria
Perodo

Agropecur
ia

Ext.
mineral

Transforma
Construo
o

Servios
Siup

Total

Comrcio

Transporte,
armazenagem e
correio

Servios de
informao

Intermediao
financeira e
seguros

1971
12.17
0.73
27.67
5.47
2.35
36.22
15.65
3.62
0.56
1972
12.25
0.69
28.44
5.78
2.08
36.99
15.22
3.57
0.68
1973
11.92
0.74
31.19
5.85
1.80
39.59
15.50
3.11
0.80
1974
11.44
0.83
31.69
6.10
1.87
40.49
15.24
3.30
0.68
1975
10.75
0.82
31.34
6.22
1.99
40.37
14.55
3.24
0.79
1976
10.86
0.89
31.00
6.22
1.80
39.91
13.41
3.70
0.82
1977
12.61
0.94
29.67
6.21
1.81
38.64
12.72
3.66
0.92
1978
10.26
1.01
30.37
6.34
1.78
39.49
12.09
3.86
1.00
1979
9.91
1.13
30.47
6.94
1.52
40.05
11.27
4.00
1.03
1980
10.11
1.04
31.29
6.81
1.79
40.93
10.90
3.77
0.91
1981
10.11
1.15
29.99
7.19
1.71
40.04
10.26
4.03
1.06
1982
8.73
1.16
30.93
7.05
2.07
41.21
9.91
4.30
1.11
1983
10.95
1.79
29.04
6.02
2.07
38.93
9.33
4.21
1.13
1984
12.15
2.85
29.88
5.70
2.29
40.73
8.86
4.19
1.10
1985
11.12
3.04
31.62
5.44
2.17
42.27
8.52
3.99
1.01
1986
11.20
2.60
32.10
6.72
2.29
43.71
8.46
4.07
0.87
1987
9.33
2.00
28.77
7.28
2.94
40.99
7.26
3.78
0.92
1988
9.75
1.77
28.62
7.08
2.57
40.04
7.48
3.90
1.09
1989
7.74
1.35
25.60
7.58
2.10
36.64
6.75
3.67
1.13
1990
6.91
1.46
22.66
6.63
2.28
33.03
9.32
3.39
1.18
1991
6.90
1.44
22.02
6.30
2.27
32.04
8.66
3.35
1.03
1992
6.23
1.30
21.33
6.16
2.45
31.23
7.45
3.04
1.26
1993
5.77
0.89
22.19
6.31
2.38
31.77
7.08
2.79
1.33
1994
8.63
0.90
23.48
8.02
2.66
35.06
8.29
3.07
1.28
1995
5.77
0.82
18.62
5.49
2.60
27.53
11.71
4.43
0.70
1996
5.51
0.91
16.80
5.69
2.59
25.98
10.43
4.25
1.01
1997
5.40
0.83
16.67
5.99
2.64
26.13
10.25
4.59
1.08
1998
5.52
0.73
15.72
6.16
3.06
25.66
9.86
4.41
1.51
1999
5.47
0.98
16.12
5.63
3.22
25.95
9.99
4.18
1.64
2000
5.60
1.59
17.22
5.52
3.40
27.73
10.60
4.87
3.60
2001
5.97
1.47
17.13
5.32
3.00
26.92
10.69
5.05
3.50
2002
6.62
1.60
16.85
5.28
3.32
27.05
10.16
4.79
3.56
2003
7.39
1.72
18.02
4.69
3.42
27.85
10.59
4.68
3.63
2004
6.91
1.92
19.22
5.09
3.88
30.11
11.03
4.70
3.85
2005
5.71
2.46
18.09
4.90
3.82
29.27
11.17
4.97
3.98
2006
5.48
2.89
17.37
4.73
3.76
28.75
11.48
4.85
3.79
2007
5.56
2.35
17.03
4.86
3.58
27.81
12.12
4.80
3.83
2008
5.92
3.23
15.64
5.02
3.46
27.34
12.43
5.08
3.62
2009
6.07
1.33
15.50
5.08
3.49
25.40
11.88
5.11
3.64
Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
a
Administrao pblica e seguridade social + educao pblica + saude pblica
Dados anteriores a 1995 segundo antiga metodologia.
Antes de 1995, foi excluida a variavel "Dummy Financeira" e , para evitar distores, optou-se por deixar de considerar o valor dos impostos sobre produtos.

6.08
5.95
5.41
5.80
6.55
7.31
7.51
8.58
8.40
7.68
10.05
10.08
12.07
11.65
11.66
7.80
13.96
14.28
20.87
15.09
12.35
20.57
25.01
13.94
9.03
8.06
7.68
7.94
7.31
5.96
6.81
7.47
7.09
5.82
7.05
7.20
7.68
7.56
7.25

Outros
servios
7.72
8.21
8.82
9.22
9.56
9.99
10.56
10.95
11.58
12.16
11.82
11.55
11.26
11.22
10.98
11.41
10.34
11.22
11.04
9.68
10.71
10.22
9.98
10.35
16.30
17.35
17.10
16.82
18.02
15.41
14.87
14.58
14.03
13.84
13.80
14.48
14.23
14.20
15.56

Servios
imobilirios
e aluguis
8.88
8.38
7.22
6.86
6.69
6.47
6.49
6.61
6.58
7.12
5.98
5.77
5.15
3.98
3.31
4.51
5.65
4.16
2.97
5.47
11.32
8.28
5.23
6.06
8.94
12.10
13.05
13.20
12.20
11.30
10.68
10.24
9.64
9.07
9.01
8.66
8.50
8.15
8.42

Adm.
Pblicaa
9.09
8.75
7.63
6.96
7.50
7.53
6.89
7.17
7.16
6.41
6.66
7.36
6.98
6.13
7.15
7.99
7.77
8.07
9.19
15.93
13.64
11.72
11.05
13.33
15.59
15.31
14.72
15.08
15.25
14.93
15.52
15.53
15.11
14.67
15.05
15.31
15.46
15.71
16.66

Total
51.61
50.75
48.49
48.07
48.88
49.24
48.75
50.25
50.04
48.95
49.85
50.07
50.13
47.12
46.61
45.10
49.68
50.21
55.62
60.06
61.06
62.54
62.46
56.31
66.70
68.50
68.47
68.82
68.58
66.67
67.10
66.33
64.77
62.97
65.02
65.76
66.63
66.74
68.53

PIB a Preos
bsicos
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Impostos
sobre
produtos

13.90
12.26
10.80
8.83
11.34
14.54
13.61
13.06
13.08
14.78
15.85
16.63
16.10
15.62
16.57
16.64
16.54
16.38
17.55
16.32

PIB a
preos de
mercado

113.90
112.26
110.80
108.83
111.34
114.54
113.61
113.06
113.08
114.78
115.85
116.63
116.10
115.62
116.57
116.64
116.54
116.38
117.55
116.32

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.7
COMPOSIO DO PIB: TICA DA DEMANDA
[em % do PIB]
Consumo
Ano

Total

Familiasa

Formao Bruta de Capital

Governo

Total

1947
85.95
76.09
9.85
14.73
1948
86.44
75.93
10.52
12.64
1949
87.59
76.34
11.25
12.32
1950
86.04
74.61
11.43
12.32
1951
86.79
75.87
10.92
14.85
1952
87.59
76.60
10.99
15.18
1953
84.41
71.13
13.28
14.59
1954
83.45
72.24
11.22
16.67
1955
83.99
72.46
11.54
15.22
1956
84.61
71.93
12.67
14.43
1957
83.23
71.01
12.22
17.35
1958
82.21
70.60
11.61
18.16
1959
80.08
69.35
10.73
20.55
1960
84.08
72.56
11.52
17.01
1961
85.34
73.78
11.56
15.06
1962
83.67
72.46
11.21
17.69
1963
82.34
70.44
11.90
18.04
1964
82.24
71.10
11.14
16.86
1965
79.37
68.71
10.66
18.42
1966
80.85
70.24
10.61
18.44
1967
83.79
72.45
11.35
16.26
1968
81.78
70.73
11.05
18.97
1969
78.00
67.10
10.89
22.01
1970
79.88
68.55
11.32
20.54
1971
80.47
69.38
11.10
21.26
1972
80.38
69.61
10.77
21.21
1973
79.12
69.22
9.91
22.05
1974
81.31
71.98
9.33
24.31
1975
78.10
67.92
10.19
25.70
1976
79.35
68.86
10.49
23.04
1977
78.62
69.19
9.43
22.05
1978
78.16
68.48
9.68
23.03
1979
78.95
69.05
9.90
23.14
1980
78.23
69.13
9.11
24.00
1981
75.93
66.41
9.52
24.46
1982
78.06
67.67
10.39
22.63
1983
79.03
68.67
10.36
18.38
1984
76.13
66.93
9.19
17.63
1985
74.16
63.73
10.43
20.39
1986
77.38
66.23
11.16
20.04
1987
73.43
60.80
12.64
23.17
1988
70.11
56.66
13.45
24.32
1989
69.67
54.17
15.50
26.86
1990
78.59
59.30
19.29
20.17
1991
79.47
61.57
17.90
19.77
1992
78.58
61.52
17.06
18.93
1993
77.75
60.08
17.66
20.85
1994
77.50
59.64
17.87
22.15
1995
82.05
61.01
21.04
18.03
1996
83.35
63.26
20.10
17.04
1997
83.34
63.45
19.90
17.43
1998
83.56
62.93
20.64
17.03
1999
83.63
63.34
20.30
16.38
2000
82.15
62.98
19.17
18.25
2001
82.03
62.22
19.82
18.03
2002
80.90
60.32
20.57
16.20
2003
80.04
60.65
19.39
15.77
2004
77.69
58.47
19.23
17.12
2005
78.83
58.92
19.91
16.21
2006
78.95
58.92
20.04
16.76
2007
78.96
58.71
20.26
18.33
2008
79.89
60.32
19.58
19.91
2009
83.57
62.76
20.81
16.51
Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
Dados anteriores a 1995 segundo antiga metodologia.
a
Inclui consumo das instituies sem fins lucrativos ao servio das famlias (ISFLSF).

Variao de
estoques

Fixo
14.89
12.74
13.03
12.78
15.45
14.82
15.06
15.76
13.49
14.46
15.04
16.98
17.99
15.72
13.11
15.51
17.04
14.99
14.71
15.92
16.20
18.68
19.11
18.83
19.91
20.33
20.37
21.85
23.33
22.42
21.35
22.27
23.36
23.56
24.31
22.99
19.93
18.90
18.01
20.01
23.17
24.32
26.86
20.66
18.11
18.42
19.28
20.75
18.32
16.87
17.37
16.97
15.66
16.80
17.03
16.39
15.28
16.10
15.94
16.43
17.44
18.67
16.73

-0.17
-0.10
-0.70
-0.46
-0.60
0.37
-0.47
0.91
1.73
-0.03
2.31
1.18
2.57
1.29
1.96
2.18
1.00
1.87
3.71
2.52
0.06
0.29
2.91
1.71
1.35
0.88
1.68
2.47
2.37
0.62
0.70
0.77
-0.22
0.44
0.15
-0.36
-1.55
-1.27
2.38
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.50
1.66
0.51
1.56
1.40
-0.30
0.17
0.06
0.06
0.72
1.45
1.00
-0.19
0.49
1.02
0.27
0.32
0.89
1.25
-0.22

Exportao
12.65
11.10
8.89
9.20
9.60
7.07
6.60
6.67
7.62
6.76
5.57
5.72
5.95
5.32
5.79
6.66
8.64
6.52
7.61
6.49
5.72
5.96
6.71
7.03
6.46
7.27
7.84
7.67
7.22
7.01
7.25
6.69
7.24
8.96
9.62
7.90
12.24
15.04
12.95
9.22
9.83
11.67
8.93
8.20
8.68
10.87
10.50
9.51
7.26
6.57
6.82
6.93
9.41
9.98
12.18
14.10
14.99
16.43
15.13
14.37
13.36
13.79
11.27

Importao (-)
13.38
10.13
8.77
7.60
11.26
9.87
5.60
6.82
6.84
5.81
6.15
6.09
6.58
6.40
6.19
8.02
9.02
5.62
5.40
5.77
5.78
6.72
6.72
7.45
8.19
8.86
9.01
13.29
11.02
9.40
7.91
7.88
9.33
11.19
10.01
8.59
9.66
8.79
7.50
6.64
6.43
6.10
5.46
6.96
7.91
8.39
9.10
9.16
8.78
8.37
9.02
8.93
10.82
11.74
13.50
12.58
12.08
12.55
11.52
11.47
11.85
13.59
11.35

PIB a preos
de mercado
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.8
TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO PIB: TICA DA OFERTA
[em % a.a.]
Indstria

Perodo

Agropecu
ria

Ext.
mineral

Transform
Construo
ao

Servios

Siup

Total

Comrcio

Transporte
Intermedia
,
Servios de
o
armazenag
informao financeira
em e
e seguros
correio

1971
10.15
3.60
11.86
12.50
12.40
11.81
10.45
14.77
1972
3.97
2.40
13.95
17.90
11.92
14.19
13.53
7.72
1973
0.08
9.76
16.62
20.90
14.55
17.04
14.78
19.86
1974
1.30
23.24
7.75
9.10
12.14
8.49
8.94
14.58
1975
6.64
3.02
3.81
8.10
10.40
4.90
2.81
9.99
1976
2.44
2.75
12.12
10.17
14.29
11.74
10.63
13.11
1977
12.11
-3.47
2.27
5.24
12.80
3.14
3.43
5.97
1978
-2.68
7.51
6.11
6.20
11.39
6.44
4.54
8.49
1979
4.70
12.05
6.86
3.71
12.61
6.80
5.59
9.89
1980
9.55
12.84
9.11
9.04
10.50
9.25
8.46
7.49
1981
7.97
-2.23
-10.39
-6.06
3.40
-8.84
-6.13
-1.73
1982
-0.22
6.93
-0.17
-2.45
6.30
-0.04
0.42
1.81
1983
-0.46
15.45
-5.84
-14.44
7.80
-5.92
-3.83
-2.21
1984
2.63
30.49
6.17
-1.16
12.20
6.31
3.74
4.32
1985
9.58
11.60
8.36
5.95
10.20
8.27
7.27
5.67
1986
-8.02
3.69
11.28
17.84
8.30
11.66
7.48
10.26
1987
14.97
-0.75
0.96
0.74
3.30
0.99
1.88
5.25
1988
0.84
0.38
-3.43
-3.11
5.79
-2.60
-2.69
4.18
1989
2.85
3.96
2.88
3.09
1.62
2.86
2.70
2.31
1990
-3.72
2.73
-9.46
-9.75
1.82
-8.18
-6.24
-3.09
1991
1.37
-1.99
0.15
-1.19
7.06
0.26
-0.64
1.46
1992
5.44
-3.60
-4.21
-5.81
0.39
-4.01
-3.05
3.22
1993
0.99
2.71
9.28
5.60
6.06
8.06
9.04
5.40
1994
7.44
7.39
8.14
9.01
6.15
8.05
11.41
6.02
1995
5.74
6.16
4.93
1.16
9.35
4.72
10.27
8.33
1996
2.95
2.43
0.08
3.23
3.12
1.07
1.81
5.62
1997
0.81
4.99
2.49
8.50
5.91
4.24
3.85
6.14
1998
3.41
3.61
-4.84
1.12
1.24
-2.59
-1.87
0.68
1999
6.53
-4.35
-1.86
-2.94
0.54
-1.91
-2.22
-4.01
2000
2.72
9.09
5.69
1.99
4.16
4.83
4.49
5.73
2001
6.06
2.22
0.70
-2.08
-6.22
-0.62
-0.03
2.35
2002
6.58
11.58
2.44
-2.16
2.86
2.08
-0.05
2.80
2003
5.81
4.68
1.85
-3.28
3.95
1.28
-0.46
-3.10
2004
2.32
4.29
8.47
6.58
8.44
7.89
7.53
5.88
2005
0.30
9.32
1.25
1.78
3.04
2.08
3.52
3.49
2006
4.80
4.40
0.97
4.68
3.51
2.21
5.95
2.09
2007
4.84
3.65
5.60
4.88
5.44
5.27
8.35
5.00
2008
5.68
4.93
3.21
8.23
4.79
4.44
6.13
3.44
2009
-5.18
-0.22
-7.05
-6.25
-2.44
-5.51
-1.16
-2.30
Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
a
Administrao pblica e seguridade social + educao pblica + saude pblica.
Dados anteriores a 1991 segundo antiga metodologia.
Para 1992-1995: Sistema de Contas Nacionais Trimestrais Referncia 2000 (dados oriundos do banco Sidra).

9.60
12.65
13.55
30.04
28.45
22.49
27.81
20.75
26.88
19.90
12.82
16.80
10.97
13.18
18.01
19.63
9.10
10.60
19.17
9.00
18.99
5.51
12.03
16.02
24.88
5.95
5.24
7.94
13.01
16.58
5.31
4.98
4.43
5.50
4.01
1.65
7.40
8.87
4.88

6.64
4.24
5.61
7.73
9.98
-1.74
-4.71
0.26
1.37
-3.12
-4.52
-4.43
-0.83
-1.02
-6.63
0.88
3.33
-1.48
0.29
2.21
1.22
2.26
-4.78
3.69
5.26
8.37
15.08
13.01
6.48

Outros
servios

-2.87
2.25
-0.11
7.86
8.17
10.15
3.65
4.73
2.96
1.03
2.48
4.73
5.13
7.67
5.79
-0.03
2.82
1.10
1.20
3.26
-0.64
4.52
0.67
5.42
5.17
4.04
4.80
4.22
5.10

Servios
imobilirios
e aluguis

3.02
2.87
0.73
7.38
4.47
2.39
2.51
2.57
2.32
4.02
4.52
4.37
3.35
3.86
4.71
2.99
4.90
1.57
1.40

Adm.
Pblicaa

2.51
2.20
2.16
2.13
2.08
2.01
1.93
1.85
1.77
1.69
1.64
2.66
4.09
3.42
3.12
4.31
-0.04
2.89
3.28
1.66
3.21
3.57
2.96
3.78
1.09
3.34
2.30
1.47
3.18

Total

11.20
12.43
15.64
10.58
5.04
11.57
5.02
6.16
7.75
9.15
-2.48
2.11
-0.53
5.35
6.94
8.10
3.14
2.33
3.54
-0.76
0.33
0.76
3.16
4.02
3.16
2.19
2.58
1.11
1.20
3.58
1.90
3.21
0.76
5.00
3.68
4.24
6.14
4.82
2.61

PIB a
Preos
bsicos

-0.24
4.25
5.12
3.74
1.93
2.91
0.27
0.70
3.86
1.44
3.11
1.24
5.61
2.96
3.68
5.82
4.76
-0.07

Impostos
sobre
produtos

-2.34
8.61
7.89
10.50
3.68
6.76
-1.74
-3.14
7.36
0.51
-0.09
0.59
6.39
4.35
5.65
7.75
7.45
-0.84

PIB a
preos de
mercado

11.34
11.94
13.97
8.15
5.17
10.26
4.93
4.97
6.76
9.20
-4.25
0.83
-2.93
5.40
7.85
7.49
3.53
-0.06
3.16
-4.35
1.03
-0.47
4.67
5.33
4.42
2.15
3.38
0.04
0.25
4.31
1.31
2.66
1.15
5.71
3.16
3.96
6.09
5.14
-0.19

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.9
TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO PIB: TICA DA DEMANDA
[em % a.a.]
Consumo
Ano
Total

Familias

Formao Bruta de Capital

Governo

Total

Fixo

1971
12.37
14.11
1972
10.86
16.51
1973
12.07
24.58
1974
9.72
16.49
1975
0.98
10.12
1976
12.58
0.66
1977
4.86
-0.02
1978
4.69
3.15
1979
8.69
0.28
1980
4.55
16.77
1981
-5.69
-12.88
1982
4.19
-9.02
1983
-2.02
-22.56
1984
2.72
2.08
1985
2.84
30.55
1986
12.29
9.53
1987
1.73
-1.47
1988
-1.30
-4.93
1989
3.82
1.20
1990
-0.94
-10.90
1991
0.50
-0.10
2.33
8.96
1992
0.09
-0.65
2.84
-8.57
1993
4.07
4.54
2.31
14.28
1994
5.87
7.44
0.33
13.03
1995
7.01
8.62
1.35
8.09
1996
1.96
3.39
-1.83
5.74
1997
2.61
3.04
1.25
9.75
1998
0.21
-0.61
3.22
-2.75
1999
0.70
0.34
1.69
-12.22
2000
3.03
3.93
-0.15
10.28
2001
1.16
0.67
2.74
-2.61
2002
2.60
1.82
4.75
-11.11
2003
-0.29
-0.65
1.15
-1.73
2004
3.88
3.81
4.09
11.84
2005
3.94
4.52
2.30
-2.47
2006
4.55
5.28
2.58
10.33
2007
5.84
6.27
5.13
16.66
2008
5.67
7.05
1.58
15.32
2009
3.96
4.05
3.69
-17.51
Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
Dados anteriores a 1991 segundo antiga metodologia.

15.35
16.71
20.99
13.26
9.74
7.03
-1.17
4.75
3.89
13.46
-12.15
-6.80
-16.33
-0.18
8.76
22.59
-1.36
-4.93
1.20
-10.90
-4.72
-6.62
6.33
14.25
7.29
1.50
8.73
-0.34
-8.20
5.03
0.44
-5.23
-4.59
9.12
3.63
9.77
13.85
13.36
-9.93

Variao de
estoques

-563.00
-29.89
300.78
-2.03
20.02
-256.56
110.66
-751.05
-1165.01
124.52
-37.89
-111.60
-248.10
96.11
-98.60
43.28
158.79
53.91
-131.04

Para 1992-1995: Sistema de Contas Nacionais Trimestrais Referncia 2000 (dados oriundos do banco Sidra).
Inclui consumo das instituies sem fins lucrativos ao servio das famlias (ISFLSF).

Exportao
5.51
24.16
14.25
2.33
11.57
-0.29
-0.38
13.25
9.30
22.61
21.35
-9.19
14.27
21.98
7.04
-10.57
19.24
13.07
5.06
-4.92
-4.83
16.55
11.68
4.01
-2.03
-0.42
11.02
4.91
5.71
12.86
10.05
7.42
10.40
15.29
9.33
5.04
6.20
-0.64
-10.28

Importao (-)
19.69
20.13
20.41
28.24
-4.42
-1.16
-7.72
4.40
8.40
0.69
-12.36
-6.00
-17.45
-2.98
0.05
28.62
-2.94
-1.11
8.98
10.94
11.10
4.53
26.78
20.35
30.68
5.59
14.60
-0.06
-15.09
10.80
1.51
-11.82
-1.62
13.30
8.47
18.45
19.88
17.96
-11.41

PIB a preos
de mercado
11.34
11.94
13.97
8.15
5.17
10.26
4.93
4.97
6.76
9.20
-4.25
0.83
-2.93
5.40
7.85
7.49
3.53
-0.06
3.16
-4.35
1.03
-0.47
4.67
5.33
4.42
2.15
3.38
0.04
0.25
4.31
1.31
2.66
1.15
5.71
3.16
3.96
6.09
5.14
-0.19

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.10
PIB: CONTRIBUIO AO CRESCIMENTOa

Consumo

Formao Bruta de Capital

Ano
Total

Familias

ISFLSF

Governo

Total

Fixo

1991
0.39
-0.06
0.00
0.45
1.81
-0.98
1992
0.07
-0.40
-0.04
0.51
-1.70
-1.20
1993
3.20
2.79
0.01
0.39
2.70
1.17
1994
4.57
4.47
0.04
0.06
2.72
2.75
1995
5.44
5.14
0.05
0.24
1.79
1.51
1996
1.64
2.07
-0.04
-0.38
1.03
0.28
1997
2.21
1.92
0.04
0.25
1.66
1.47
1998
0.17
-0.39
-0.08
0.64
-0.48
-0.06
1999
0.59
0.21
0.03
0.35
-2.08
-1.39
2000
2.58
2.49
0.12
-0.03
1.68
0.79
2001
0.96
0.42
0.02
0.53
-0.48
0.07
2002
2.16
1.13
0.09
0.94
-2.00
-0.89
2003
-0.24
-0.39
-0.08
0.24
-0.28
-0.75
2004
3.16
2.31
0.06
0.79
1.87
1.39
2005
3.11
2.64
0.03
0.44
-0.42
0.58
2006
3.65
3.11
0.02
0.51
1.67
1.56
2007
4.69
3.70
-0.04
1.03
2.79
2.28
2008
4.54
4.14
0.08
0.32
2.81
2.33
2009
3.17
2.44
0.00
0.72
-3.49
-1.85
Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
a
Pesos no ano anterior (t-1) x taxa de crescimento (t).

Variao de
estoques
0.00
-0.50
1.54
-0.03
0.28
0.76
0.19
-0.42
-0.69
0.90
-0.55
-1.11
0.47
0.47
-1.01
0.12
0.52
0.48
-1.63

Exportao

-0.40
1.44
1.27
0.42
-0.19
-0.03
0.72
0.33
0.40
1.21
1.00
0.90
1.47
2.29
1.53
0.76
0.89
-0.09
-1.42

Importao (-)

-0.77
-0.36
-2.25
-1.85
-2.81
-0.49
-1.22
0.01
1.35
-1.17
-0.18
1.60
0.20
-1.61
-1.06
-2.13
-2.28
-2.13
1.55

PIB a
preos de
mercado
1.03
-0.47
4.67
5.33
4.42
2.15
3.38
0.04
0.25
4.31
1.31
2.66
1.15
5.71
3.16
3.96
6.09
5.14
-0.19

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.11

Utilizao da Capacidade Instalada (UCI) - mdia ponderada da economia brasileira

(Em %)
Indstria

Perodo

Agropecuria

Ext. mineral

Trransformao

Construo

Servios

Siup

Total

Comrcio

Transporte,
armazenagem
e correio

Servios de
informao

1992
100.00
89.00
70.92
78.47
90.93
74.98
69.97
75.22
100.00
1993
100.00
87.13
73.80
81.52
92.96
77.60
75.53
77.98
100.00
1994
100.00
94.47
75.66
87.40
93.72
80.34
83.29
81.30
100.00
1995
100.00
94.18
76.56
87.03
96.85
81.09
90.93
86.63
100.00
1996
100.00
93.39
76.70
88.36
99.61
82.15
91.64
89.99
100.00
1997
100.00
96.14
77.20
94.38
101.96
84.29
94.16
93.93
100.00
1998
100.00
95.55
76.74
94.66
102.88
84.70
90.88
92.96
100.00
1999
100.00
95.29
76.73
91.27
102.71
83.83
87.25
87.69
99.05
2000
100.00
97.93
79.17
92.49
100.26
85.48
89.53
91.10
93.25
2001
100.00
97.96
78.89
89.23
89.87
83.32
86.89
91.83
88.33
2002
100.00
97.98
79.48
86.53
88.75
83.05
85.02
92.83
86.75
2003
100.00
98.38
78.64
82.97
88.23
81.78
82.86
88.44
87.88
2004
100.00
97.89
81.31
87.66
89.45
84.49
87.23
92.08
88.01
2005
100.00
98.16
80.64
88.45
90.12
84.79
88.42
93.70
87.96
2006
100.00
97.39
80.56
91.73
89.82
85.37
91.00
95.05
85.91
Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
Obs.: Para detalhes de metodologia ver Souza Jr., J. R. C. Produto potencial: conceitos, mtodos de estimao e aplicao economia brasileira. Rio de
Janeiro: Ipea, 2005, 60 p. (Texto para Discusso, 1.130). Para a indstria de transformao foram utilizados os dados da CNI.

Intermediao
financeira e
seguros
87.96
89.24
91.07
92.49
93.61
94.67
94.48
93.59
93.86
92.85
92.57
91.59
92.67
92.84
93.24

Outros
servios
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00

Servios
imobilirios e
aluguis
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00

Adm.
Pblicaa
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00

Total

91.94
93.04
94.74
96.54
97.44
98.22
97.69
96.76
96.83
96.00
95.69
94.83
95.76
96.02
96.48

UCI Total

87.96
89.24
91.07
92.49
93.61
94.67
94.48
93.59
93.86
92.85
92.57
91.59
92.67
92.84
93.24

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.12
INVESTIMENTO E POUPANA
(Acumulado em quatro trimestres, em % do PIB)

Formao bruta de capital fixo (A)

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

18.32

16.87

17.37

16.97

15.66

16.80

17.03

16.39

15.28

16.10

15.94

16.43

17.52

18.99

Variao de estoques (B)

-0.30

0.17

0.06

0.06

0.72

1.45

1.00

-0.19

0.49

1.02

0.27

0.34

0.21

-0.06

Formao bruta de capital (C=A+B)

18.03

17.04

17.43

17.03

16.38

18.25

18.03

16.20

15.77

17.12

16.21

16.77

17.73

18.93

Poupana externa (D)

2.49

2.94

3.84

4.00

4.32

4.29

4.51

1.51

-0.18

-1.36

-1.14

-0.83

0.27

2.04

-2.49

-2.94

-3.84

-4.00

-4.32

-4.29

-4.51

-1.51

0.18

1.36

1.14

0.83

-0.27

-2.04

0.45

0.30

0.22

0.18

0.31

0.25

0.31

0.51

0.53

0.52

0.43

0.41

0.34

0.31

Rendas de propriedade recebidas e enviadas ao resto do mundo (G)

-1.42

-1.44

-1.86

-2.18

-3.23

-2.78

-3.51

-3.54

-3.26

-3.04

-2.89

-2.49

-2.14

-2.52

Exportaes menos importaes de bens e servios (H)

-1.52

-1.80

-2.20

-2.00

-1.40

-1.76

-1.32

1.51

2.91

3.88

3.61

2.90

1.54

0.17

15.54

14.10

13.58

13.03

12.05

13.96

13.52

14.69

15.95

18.47

17.35

17.59

17.47

16.89

Consumo das famlias (J)

62.46

64.66

64.88

64.33

64.73

64.35

63.47

61.72

61.93

59.78

60.27

60.30

60.81

60.68

Consumo do governo (K)

21.04

20.10

19.90

20.64

20.30

19.17

19.82

20.57

19.39

19.23

19.91

20.03

19.91

20.22

Consumo total (L=J+K)

83.49

84.76

84.77

84.97

85.03

83.51

83.29

82.29

81.32

79.01

80.19

80.33

80.72

80.90

0.97

1.14

1.64

2.00

2.92

2.53

3.20

3.02

2.73

2.52

2.47

2.08

1.81

2.21

99.03

98.86

98.36

98.00

97.08

97.47

96.80

96.98

97.27

97.48

97.53

97.92

98.19

97.79

Resultado em conta corrente (E=F+G+H)

Transferncias correntes mais remunerao dos empregados no
residentes a (F)

Poupana domstica (I=C-D = N-L)

Memo:

Renda lquida enviada ao exterior b (M=[F+G] x [-1])

Renda disponvel bruta (N=100-M)

Fonte: IBGE - Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referncia 2000. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

a

Transferncias correntes recebidas e enviadas ao resto do mundo mais remunerao dos empregados no residentes recebidas e enviadas ao resto do mundo.

Descontada das transferncias recebidas.

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.13
INDICADORES DE NVEL DE ATIVIDADE, EMPREGO E RENDA
ndicador de utilizao da capacidade
Taxa de desemprego abertob (%)
instaladaa (%)
1972
87.3
1973
89.8
1974
88.8
1975
87.0
1976
88.5
1977
85.0
1978
83.8
1979
83.3
1980
84.3
1981
77.5
7.9
1982
75.8
6.3
1983
73.0
6.7
1984
74.0
7.1
1985
77.8
5.3
1986
82.5
3.6
1987
80.8
3.7
1988
79.5
3.8
1989
80.8
3.4
1990
74.0
4.3
1991
74.5
4.8
1992
72.0
5.7
1993
76.8
5.3
1994
79.8
5.1
1995
83.5
4.6
1996
82.0
5.4
1997
83.8
5.7
1998
81.4
7.6
1999
79.5
7.6
2000
81.3
7.1
2001
80.8
11.3
2002
79.2
11.7
2003
80.3
12.3
2004
82.4
11.5
2005
83.5
9.8
2006
83.3
10.0
2007
85.1
9.3
2008
85.2
7.9
Fontes: IBGE/PME e FGV/Ibre. Indicador de capacidade: sondagem industrial.
Eborao: IPEA/DIMAC.
a
Mdia anual.
b
Para 1981-2001: PME (antiga metodologia).
Ano

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.14
BALANO DE PAGAMENTOS: CONTAS SELECIONADAS
[em US$ milhes]
Contas do BP
Transaes Correntes (TC)
Balana comercial (fob)
Exportao de bens
Importao de bens
Servios e rendas (lquido)
Servios (fretes, viagens, etc.)
Juros
Lucros e dividendos
Outras rendas
Transferncias unilaterais
Conta Capital e Financeira (CCF)
Conta Capital
Investimento Direto
Investimento em carteira, derivativos e outros
Erros e Omisses
Resultado do Balano

1947
-204
96
1,152
1,056
-276
-221
-13
-42

1948
-115
207
1,180
973
-315
-210
-25
-80

1949
-135
139
1,096
957
-271
-170
-21
-80

1950
93
414
1,355
942
-319
-209
-27
-83

1951
-494
44
1,769
1,725
-536
-379
-20
-137

1952
-725
-302
1,418
1,720
-421
-300
-22
-99
-2
708

1953
-12
395
1,539
1,145
-393
-227
-34
-131
-1
-14
41

1954
-236
147
1,562
1,415
-378
-243
-48
-89
2
-5
236

1955
-35
319
1,423
1,104
-344
-230
-35
-79
0
-10
34

1956
-23
407
1,482
1,075
-419
-278
-67
-74
0
-11
190

1957
-300
106
1,392
1,285
-393
-265
-67
-61
0
-13
309

1958
-265
66
1,243
1,177
-327
-219
-58
-49
-1
-4
425

1959
-345
72
1,282
1,210
-407
-256
-91
-59
-1
-10
345

1960
-518
-24
1,269
1,293
-498
-304
-115
-79
0
4
493

-24
349

-7
-52

-3
72

-2
-111

-2
266

55
294
-9
136

67
-119
100
-67

44
28
96
33

39
-150
-12
-30

63
203
147
-81

94
614
-10
-27

60
-19
-69
-40

51
185
11
11

79
-45
13
12

139
51
16
183

178
131
-170
-161

128
297
-190
-30

158
187
-25
-25

138
355
11
-14

1980
-12,739
-2,823
20,132
22,955
-10,059
-3,039
-6,311
-721
12
143
9,610
25
1,544
8,041
-343
-3,472

2000
-24,225
-698
55,086
55,783
-25,048
-7,162
-14,649
-3,316
79
1,521
19,326
273
30,498
-11,444
2,637
-2,262

Contas do BP
Transaes Correntes (TC)
Balana comercial (fob)
Exportao de bens
Importao de bens
Servios e rendas (lquido)
Servios (fretes, viagens, etc.)
Juros
Lucros e dividendos
Outras rendas
Transferncias unilaterais
Conta Capital e Financeira (CCF)
Conta Capital
Investimento Direto
Investimento em carteira, derivativos e outros
Erros e Omisses
Resultado do Balano

1961
-263
111
1,403
1,292
-389
-206
-114
-70
1
15
390

1962
-453
-90
1,214
1,304
-402
-203
-118
-81
0
39
472

1963
-171
112
1,406
1,294
-326
-182
-87
-57
0
43
210

1964
81
343
1,430
1,086
-317
-129
-131
-58
1
55
134

1965
284
655
1,595
941
-446
-191
-156
-102
3
75
-35

1966
-31
438
1,741
1,303
-548
-271
-155
-127
5
79
47

1967
-276
213
1,654
1,441
-566
-278
-184
-112
8
77
49

1968
-582
26
1,881
1,855
-630
-333
-144
-158
5
22
680

1969
-364
318
2,311
1,993
-713
-377
-182
-164
10
31
936

1970
-839
232
2,739
2,507
-1,092
-473
-234
-395
11
21
1,281

1971
-1,630
-344
2,904
3,247
-1,300
-572
-302
-439
12
14
2,173

1972
-1,688
-241
3,991
4,232
-1,452
-743
-359
-362
12
5
3,793

1973
-2,085
7
6,199
6,192
-2,119
-1,027
-514
-596
17
27
4,111

1974
-7,504
-4,690
7,951
12,641
-2,814
-1,541
-652
-630
9
1
6,531

1975
-6,999
-3,540
8,670
12,210
-3,461
-1,451
-1,498
-533
21
2
6,374

1976
-6,426
-2,255
10,128
12,383
-4,172
-1,589
-1,810
-790
17
1
8,499

1977
-4,826
97
12,120
12,023
-4,923
-1,500
-2,104
-1,332
13
0
6,151

1978
-6,983
-1,024
12,659
13,683
-6,030
-1,770
-2,696
-1,536
-28
71
11,884

147
243
51
178

132
340
-137
-118

87
123
-76
-37

86
48
-217
-2

154
-189
-31
218

159
-112
-25
-9

115
-66
-35
-262

135
545
-1
97

207
729
-41
531

378
904
92
534

448
1,725
-7
537

441
3,352
433
2,538

1,148
2,963
355
2,380

1,154
5,377
-68
-1,041

1,095
5,279
-439
-1,064

1,219
7,280
615
2,688

1,685
4,466
-611
714

2,056
9,828
-639
4,262

1979
-10,708
-2,839
15,244
18,084
-7,880
-2,320
-4,186
-1,357
-17
11
7,624
7
2,210
5,407
-130
-3,215

Contas do BP
Transaes Correntes (TC)
Balana comercial (fob)
Exportao de bens
Importao de bens
Servios e rendas (lquido)
Servios (fretes, viagens, etc.)
Juros
Lucros e dividendos
Outras rendas
Transferncias unilaterais
Conta Capital e Financeira (CCF)
Conta Capital
Investimento Direto
Investimento em carteira, derivativos e outros
Erros e Omisses
Resultado do Balano

1981
-11,706
1,202
23,293
22,091
-13,094
-2,819
-9,161
-1,111
-3
186
12,746
13
2,315
10,418
-415
625

1982
-16,273
780
20,175
19,395
-17,039
-3,491
-11,353
-2,141
-54
-14
12,101
6
2,740
9,355
-369
-4,542

1983
-6,773
6,470
21,899
15,429
-13,354
-2,310
-9,555
-1,453
-36
111
7,419
-3
1,138
6,284
-670
-24

1984
95
13,090
27,005
13,916
-13,156
-1,658
-10,203
-1,268
-27
161
6,529
9
1,459
5,061
403
7,027

1985
-248
12,486
25,639
13,153
-12,877
-1,594
-9,659
-1,599
-25
143
197
6
1,337
-1,147
-405
-457

1986
-5,323
8,304
22,349
14,044
-13,707
-2,557
-9,327
-1,799
-24
80
1,432
7
174
1,251
56
-3,836

1987
-1,438
11,173
26,224
15,051
-12,676
-2,258
-8,792
-1,527
-100
65
3,259
5
1,031
2,223
-806
1,015

1988
4,180
19,184
33,789
14,605
-15,096
-2,896
-9,832
-2,253
-116
92
-2,098
2
2,630
-4,730
-833
1,249

1989
1,032
16,119
34,383
18,263
-15,334
-2,667
-9,633
-2,914
-120
246
629
-3
607
25
-775
886

1990
-3,784
10,752
31,414
20,661
-15,369
-3,596
-9,748
-1,864
-160
833
4,592
1
364
4,227
-328
481

1991
-1,407
10,580
31,620
21,040
-13,543
-3,800
-8,621
-1,030
-92
1,555
163
0
87
76
875
-369

1992
6,109
15,239
35,793
20,554
-11,336
-3,184
-7,253
-748
-151
2,206
9,947
37
1,924
7,986
-1,386
14,670

1993
-676
13,299
38,555
25,256
-15,577
-5,246
-8,280
-1,930
-121
1,602
10,495
83
799
9,613
-1,111
8,709

1994
-1,811
10,466
43,545
33,079
-14,692
-5,657
-6,337
-2,566
-131
2,414
8,692
174
1,460
7,058
334
7,215

1995
-18,384
-3,466
46,506
49,972
-18,541
-7,483
-7,946
-2,951
-160
3,622
29,095
352
3,309
25,434
2,207
12,919

1996
-23,502
-5,599
47,747
53,346
-20,350
-8,681
-8,778
-2,830
-60
2,446
33,968
454
11,261
22,253
-1,800
8,666

1997
-30,452
-6,753
52,994
59,747
-25,522
-10,646
-9,483
-5,443
50
1,823
25,800
393
17,877
7,530
-3,255
-7,907

1998
-33,416
-6,575
51,140
57,714
-28,299
-10,111
-11,437
-6,855
103
1,458
29,702
320
26,002
3,380
-4,256
-7,970

1999
-25,335
-1,199
48,011
49,210
-25,825
-6,977
-14,876
-4,115
142
1,689
17,319
338
26,888
-9,907
194
-7,822

Contas do BP
Transaes Correntes (TC)
Balana comercial (fob)
Exportao de bens
Importao de bens
Servios e rendas (lquido)
Servios (fretes, viagens, etc.)
Juros
Lucros e dividendos
Outras rendas
Transferncias unilaterais
Conta Capital e Financeira (CCF)
Conta Capital
Investimento Direto
Investimento em carteira, derivativos e outros
Erros e Omisses
Resultado do Balano
Fonte:Bacen. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

2001
-23,215
2,650
58,223
55,572
-27,503
-7,759
-14,877
-4,961
95
1,638
27,052
-36
24,715
2,373
-531
3,307

2002
-7,637
13,121
60,362
47,240
-23,148
-4,957
-13,130
-5,162
102
2,390
8,004
433
14,108
-6,537
-66
302

2003
4,177
24,794
73,084
48,290
-23,483
-4,931
-13,020
-5,640
109
2,867
5,111
498
9,894
-5,281
-793
8,496

2004
11,679
33,641
96,475
62,835
-25,198
-4,678
-13,364
-7,338
181
3,236
-7,523
372
8,339
-16,234
-1,912
2,244

2005
13,985
44,703
118,308
73,606
-34,276
-8,309
-13,496
-12,686
214
3,558
-9,464
663
12,550
-22,676
-201
4,319

2006
13,643
46,457
137,807
91,351
-37,120
-9,640
-11,289
-16,369
177
4,306
16,299
869
-9,380
24,810
628
30,569

2007
1,551
40,032
160,649
120,617
-42,510
-13,219
-7,305
-22,435
448
4,029
89,086
756
27,518
60,811
-3,152
87,484

2008
-28,192
24,836
197,942
173,107
-57,252
-16,690
-7,232
-33,875
545
4,224
29,352
1,055
24,601
3,695
1,809
2,969

2009
-24,334
25,347
152,995
127,647
-52,945
-19,260
-9,069
-25,218
603
3,263
70,551
1,129
36,033
33,390
434
46,651

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.15
INDICADORES DE ENDIVIDAMENTO E SOLVNCIA EXTERNA
[em U$ milhes]

Ano

Dvida externa
bruta a

Reservas
internacionais b

Dvida externa
lquida

1952
638
482
1953
1,159
421
1954
1,196
372
1955
1,395
442
1956
2,736
608
1957
2,491
474
1958
2,870
465
1959
3,160
366
1960
3,738
345
1961
3,291
470
1962
3,533
285
1963
3,612
215
1964
3,294
244
1965
3,823
483
1966
3,771
421
1967
3,440
198
1968
4,092
257
1969
4,635
656
1970
6,240
1,187
1971
8,284
1,723
1972
11,464
4,183
1973
14,857
6,416
1974
20,032
5,269
1975
25,115
4,040
1976
32,145
6,544
1977
37,951
7,256
1978
52,187
11,895
1979
55,803
9,689
1980
64,259
6,913
1981
73,963
7,507
1982
85,487
3,994
1983
93,745
4,563
1984
102,127
11,995
1985
105,171
11,608
1986
111,203
6,760
1987
121,188
7,458
1988
113,511
9,140
1989
115,506
9,679
1990
123,439
9,973
1991
123,910
9,406
1992
135,949
23,754
1993
145,726
32,211
1994
148,295
38,806
1995
159,256
51,840
1996
179,935
60,110
1997
199,998
52,173
1998
241,644
44,556
1999
225,610
36,342
2000
216,921
33,011
2001
209,934
35,866
2002
210,711
37,823
2003
214,930
49,296
2004
201,374
52,935
2005
169,450
53,799
2006
172,589
85,839
2007
193,219
180,334
2008
198,340
206,806
2009
198,194
239,054
Fonte: Bacen. Elaborao: Ipea\Dimac.
a
Exclui dvida de curto prazo antes de 1956 e emprstimos intercompanhias a partir de 1998.
b
Liquidez internacional.
c
O numerador refere-se ao resultado lquido de juros, lucros e dividendos e outras rendas.

156
738
824
953
2,128
2,017
2,405
2,794
3,393
2,821
3,248
3,397
3,050
3,340
3,350
3,242
3,835
3,980
5,053
6,561
7,281
8,441
14,763
21,075
25,601
30,695
40,292
46,114
57,346
66,456
81,493
89,182
90,132
93,563
104,443
113,730
104,371
105,827
113,466
114,504
112,195
113,515
109,489
107,416
119,825
147,825
197,088
189,267
183,910
174,068
172,888
165,633
148,439
115,651
86,750
12,885
-8,466
-40,860

Dvida externa lquida /

Exportaes de bens
(%)
0.11
0.48
0.53
0.67
1.44
1.45
1.93
2.18
2.67
2.01
2.68
2.42
2.13
2.09
1.92
1.96
2.04
1.72
1.84
2.26
1.82
1.36
1.86
2.43
2.53
2.53
3.18
3.02
2.85
2.85
4.04
4.07
3.34
3.65
4.67
4.34
3.09
3.08
3.61
3.62
3.13
2.94
2.51
2.31
2.51
2.79
3.85
3.94
3.34
2.99
2.86
2.27
1.54
0.98
0.63
0.08
-0.04
-0.27

Rendas C /
Exportaes de bens
(%)
8.5
10.8
8.6
8.0
9.5
9.2
8.7
11.8
15.3
13.1
16.4
10.3
13.2
16.0
15.9
17.4
15.8
14.6
22.6
25.1
17.8
17.6
16.0
23.2
25.5
28.2
33.7
36.5
34.9
44.1
67.2
50.4
42.6
44.0
49.9
39.7
36.1
36.8
37.5
30.8
22.8
26.8
20.7
23.8
24.4
28.1
35.6
39.3
32.5
33.9
30.1
25.4
21.3
21.9
19.9
18.2
20.5
22.0

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.16
BALANO EM CONTA-CORRENTE
[em US$ milhes]

Balana comercial (FOB)

Exportao de bens
Importao de bens
Servios e Rendas
Receita
Despesa
Juros
Receita
Despesa
Lucros e dividendos
Receita
Despesa
Lucros Reinvestidos
Outros servios
Receita
Despesa
Viagens internacionais
Receita
Despesa
Transportes
Receita
Despesa
Seguros
Receita
Despesa
Governamentais
Receita
Despesa
Denais servios
Receita
Despesa
Transferncias Unilaterais
Saldo de transaes correntes
Fonte: Bacen. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

1990
10,752
31,414
20,661
-15,369
4,910
20,279
-9,748
1,120
10,868
-1,864
27
1,892
273
-3,757
3,762
7,519
-90
1,492
1,582
-1,644
1,348
2,991
-68
116
184
-328
38
366
-1,627
769
2,396
833
-3,784

1991
10,580
31,620
21,040
-13,543
4,201
17,744
-8,621
873
9,493
-1,030
23
1,053
365
-3,892
3,306
7,198
-237
1,079
1,317
-1,656
1,458
3,113
-133
60
192
-370
32
402
-1,496
678
2,174
1,555
-1,407

1992
15,239
35,793
20,554
-11,336
5,195
16,532
-7,253
1,025
8,278
-748
76
824
175
-3,335
4,094
7,429
-337
1,066
1,403
-1,359
1,924
3,283
-58
115
173
-166
59
225
-1,416
931
2,347
2,206
6,109

1993
13,299
38,555
25,256
-15,577
5,262
20,839
-8,280
1,049
9,329
-1,930
221
2,151
100
-5,367
3,992
9,359
-795
1,097
1,892
-2,091
1,637
3,727
-45
161
206
-345
54
399
-2,091
1,044
3,134
1,602
-676

1994
10,466
43,545
33,079
-14,692
6,653
21,345
-6,337
1,802
8,140
-2,566
400
2,966
83
-5,788
4,451
10,239
-1,181
1,051
2,232
-2,441
1,702
4,143
-132
142
274
-327
91
418
-1,708
1,465
3,173
2,414
-1,811

1995
-3,466
46,506
49,972
-18,541
8,298
26,838
-7,946
2,481
10,427
-2,951
829
3,780
200
-7,643
4,988
12,631
-2,420
972
3,391
-3,011
1,716
4,727
-122
186
308
-339
130
469
-1,752
1,984
3,736
3,622
-18,384

1996
-5,599
47,747
53,346
-20,350
10,273
30,623
-8,778
3,610
12,389
-2,830
1,428
4,258
531
-8,741
5,235
13,976
-3,598
840
4,438
-2,717
1,431
4,148
-63
237
300
-303
203
506
-2,059
2,524
4,583
2,446
-23,502

1997
-6,753
52,994
59,747
-25,522
12,035
37,557
-9,483
4,017
13,500
-5,443
889
6,332
151
-10,596
7,129
17,725
-4,377
1,069
5,446
-3,162
1,751
4,912
74
412
338
-350
501
851
-2,781
3,397
6,178
1,823
-30,452

1998
-6,575
51,140
57,714
-28,299
12,496
40,795
-11,437
3,884
15,321
-6,855
432
7,287
124
-10,007
8,180
18,187
-4,146
1,586
5,732
-3,261
1,456
4,717
81
390
309
-385
548
933
-2,296
4,200
6,496
1,458
-33,416

1999
-1,199
48,011
49,210
-25,825
11,129
36,954
-14,876
2,224
17,100
-4,115
1,400
5,515
0
-6,835
7,504
14,339
-1,457
1,628
3,085
-3,071
1,141
4,212
-128
165
293
-498
318
816
-1,681
4,252
5,933
1,689
-25,335

2000
-698
55,086
55,783
-25,048
13,119
38,167
-14,649
2,447
17,096
-3,316
937
4,253
0
-7,083
9,736
16,818
-2,084
1,810
3,894
-2,896
1,409
4,305
-4
312
317
-549
537
1,087
-1,549
5,667
7,216
1,521
-24,225

2001
2,650
58,223
55,572
-27,503
12,601
40,104
-14,877
2,744
17,621
-4,961
265
5,226
0
-7,664
9,592
17,257
-1,468
1,731
3,199
-2,966
1,422
4,388
-275
180
455
-652
604
1,256
-2,303
5,657
7,959
1,638
-23,215

2002
13,121
60,362
47,240
-23,148
12,847
35,994
-13,130
2,144
15,275
-5,162
858
6,020
0
-4,855
9,844
14,700
-398
1,998
2,396
-1,959
1,536
3,494
-420
206
626
-252
761
1,013
-1,827
5,343
7,171
2,390
-7,637

2003
24,794
73,084
48,290
-23,483
13,786
37,269
-13,020
2,307
15,328
-5,640
763
6,403
0
-4,823
10,716
15,538
218
2,479
2,261
-1,590
1,822
3,412
-436
124
560
-151
877
1,028
-2,863
5,415
8,278
2,867
4,177

2004
33,641
96,475
62,835
-25,198
15,782
40,980
-13,364
1,925
15,289
-7,338
920
8,257
0
-4,497
12,937
17,434
351
3,222
2,871
-1,986
2,467
4,453
-544
105
649
-192
957
1,149
-2,126
6,186
8,312
3,236
11,679

2005
44,703
118,308
73,606
-34,276
19,242
53,518
-13,496
2,218
15,713
-12,686
651
13,337
0
-8,095
16,373
24,468
-858
3,861
4,720
-1,950
3,139
5,089
-568
134
702
-755
1,192
1,947
-3,963
8,047
12,009
3,558
13,985

2006
46,457
137,807
91,351
-37,120
25,937
63,058
-11,289
5,115
16,404
-16,369
949
17,318
0
-9,463
19,873
29,336
-1,448
4,316
5,764
-3,126
3,439
6,565
-430
324
755
-450
1,517
1,967
-4,009
10,277
14,286
4,306
13,643

2007
40,032
160,649
120,617
-42,510
35,447
77,957
-7,305
9,831
17,136
-22,435
1,165
23,600
0
-12,770
24,451
37,221
-3,258
4,953
8,211
-4,384
4,119
8,503
-766
543
1,308
-1,134
1,340
2,473
-3,228
13,497
16,725
4,029
1,551

2008
24,836
197,942
173,107
-57,252
42,961
100,213
-7,232
10,240
17,472
-33,875
1,541
35,416
0
-16,145
31,181
47,325
-5,177
5,785
10,962
-4,994
5,411
10,405
-837
828
1,665
-1,116
1,628
2,744
-4,020
17,528
21,548
4,224
-28,192

2009
25,347
152,995
127,647
-52,945
36,576
-89,521
-9,069
6,930
-15,999
-25,218
1,231
-26,449
0
-18,657
28,416
-47,073
-5,594
5,305
-10,898
-3,925
4,040
-7,965
-1,442
373
-1,815
-1,454
1,483
-2,938
-6,242
17,215
-23,457
3,263
-24,334

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.17
BALANO EM CONTA-CORRENTE: OUTROS SERVIOS - COEFICIENTES RELATIVOS
[% das exportaes e importaes de bens]

Receita outros servios

Receita viagens internacionais/Exportaes
Receita transportes/Exportaes
Receita seguros/Exportaes
Receita governamentais/Exportaes
Receita outros servios/Exportaes
Despesa outros servios
Despesa viagens internacionais/Importaes
Despesa transportes/Importaes
Despesa seguros/Importaes
Despesa governamentais/Importaes
Despesa outros servios/Importaes
Fonte: Bacen. Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.

1990
12.0
4.8
4.3
0.4
0.1
2.4
36.4
7.7
14.5
0.9
1.8
11.6

1991
10.5
3.4
4.6
0.2
0.1
2.1
34.2
6.3
14.8
0.9
1.9
10.3

1992
11.4
3.0
5.4
0.3
0.2
2.6
36.1
6.8
16.0
0.8
1.1
11.4

1993
10.4
2.8
4.2
0.4
0.1
2.7
37.1
7.5
14.8
0.8
1.6
12.4

1994
10.2
2.4
3.9
0.3
0.2
3.4
31.0
6.7
12.5
0.8
1.3
9.6

1995
10.7
2.1
3.7
0.4
0.3
4.3
25.3
6.8
9.5
0.6
0.9
7.5

1996
11.0
1.8
3.0
0.5
0.4
5.3
26.2
8.3
7.8
0.6
0.9
8.6

1997
13.5
2.0
3.3
0.8
0.9
6.4
29.7
9.1
8.2
0.6
1.4
10.3

1998
16.0
3.1
2.8
0.8
1.1
8.2
31.5
9.9
8.2
0.5
1.6
11.3

1999
15.6
3.4
2.4
0.3
0.7
8.9
29.1
6.3
8.6
0.6
1.7
12.1

2000
17.7
3.3
2.6
0.6
1.0
10.3
30.1
7.0
7.7
0.6
1.9
12.9

2001
16.5
3.0
2.4
0.3
1.0
9.7
31.1
5.8
7.9
0.8
2.3
14.3

2002
16.3
3.3
2.5
0.3
1.3
8.9
31.1
5.1
7.4
1.3
2.1
15.2

2003
14.7
3.4
2.5
0.2
1.2
7.4
32.2
4.7
7.1
1.2
2.1
17.1

2004
13.4
3.3
2.6
0.1
1.0
6.4
27.7
4.6
7.1
1.0
1.8
13.2

2005
13.8
3.3
2.7
0.1
1.0
6.8
33.2
6.4
6.9
1.0
2.6
16.3

2006
14.4
3.1
2.5
0.2
1.1
7.5
32.1
6.3
7.2
0.8
2.2
15.6

2007
15.2
3.1
2.6
0.3
0.8
8.4
30.9
6.8
7.0
1.1
2.1
13.9

2008
15.8
2.9
2.7
0.4
0.8
8.9
27.3
6.3
6.0
1.0
1.6
12.4

2009
18.6
3.5
2.6
0.2
1.0
11.3
36.9
8.5
6.2
1.4
2.3
18.4

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.18
NDICE DE PREO E QUANTUM DE EXPORTAO (TOTAL E FATOR AGREGADO)
[base: mdia de 2006 = 100]
Ano

Preo

Total
Quantum

Preo

Bsicos
Quantum

1974
49.1
11.7
58.6
1975
50.3
12.5
61.1
1976
58.7
12.5
77.9
1977
73.2
12.0
101.2
1978
68.4
13.4
87.1
1979
75.6
14.6
94.5
1980
82.0
17.8
99.2
1981
79.0
21.4
88.7
1982
75.0
19.5
84.8
1983
71.3
22.3
83.6
1984
73.7
26.6
84.4
1985
68.6
27.1
74.6
1986
71.0
22.8
92.9
1987
71.2
26.7
77.5
1988
79.2
30.9
85.4
1989
81.1
30.8
84.1
1990
79.3
28.7
76.5
1991
77.9
29.5
77.7
1992
75.3
34.5
73.9
1993
69.6
40.2
71.9
1994
77.0
41.0
82.7
1995
87.5
38.5
86.4
1996
87.6
39.6
93.6
1997
88.2
43.6
101.1
1998
82.3
45.1
84.9
1999
71.7
48.6
71.2
2000
74.1
54.0
69.7
2001
71.6
59.1
63.9
2002
68.3
64.2
61.3
2003
71.5
74.3
67.7
2004
79.3
88.5
80.4
2005
88.9
96.8
91.4
2006
100.0
100.0
100.0
2007
110.5
105.5
114.5
2008
139.6
102.9
161.8
2009
120.9
91.8
133.4
Fontes: Funcex e IPEA. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

18.9
20.0
19.1
16.7
16.6
16.8
20.8
24.4
23.6
24.8
25.0
27.7
19.0
25.1
26.7
27.5
27.7
27.3
29.0
31.6
32.4
30.8
31.6
35.5
37.9
41.2
44.7
59.6
68.7
77.7
88.0
94.3
100.0
111.8
112.1
115.3

Semi-manufaturados
Preo
Quantum
77.4
66.1
59.8
72.4
72.6
81.2
85.1
76.3
64.6
61.3
73.7
66.4
63.4
69.5
85.2
87.7
77.1
70.4
67.7
64.2
73.6
91.1
79.3
78.2
72.1
60.8
69.5
62.2
59.4
66.1
75.7
84.7
100.0
110.9
138.9
110.8

6.3
6.8
7.4
7.6
10.3
12.3
14.6
14.6
11.7
15.3
20.6
21.9
20.8
24.1
30.3
35.0
35.0
35.2
44.8
44.8
49.4
53.0
55.6
55.6
57.6
67.3
62.6
67.8
77.3
84.8
90.9
96.6
100.0
100.7
99.8
94.8

Preo

Manufaturados
Quantum
47.1
47.8
50.7
58.5
60.5
67.1
75.8
78.3
76.1
70.3
72.1
69.5
65.8
72.0
78.7
81.1
85.0
83.4
81.6
73.6
79.2
91.2
91.7
89.7
88.5
79.0
79.8
79.8
76.1
75.7
80.2
89.0
100.0
108.4
126.0
118.6

6.4
7.2
7.3
8.8
11.2
13.2
15.9
20.2
18.0
21.4
28.0
27.0
25.2
27.5
32.5
30.7
26.7
28.4
33.9
42.5
42.0
37.4
38.4
43.4
44.2
46.1
54.4
55.1
57.9
70.1
88.3
97.9
100.0
103.2
98.1
75.7

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.19
NDICE DE PREO E QUANTUM DE EXPORTAO E IMPORTAO
[base: mdia de 2006 = 100]
Ano

Preo

Exportao
Quantum

1974
56.1
1975
57.4
1976
67.0
1977
83.5
1978
78.1
1979
86.3
1980
93.6
1981
90.2
1982
85.7
1983
81.4
1984
84.2
1985
78.3
1986
81.1
1987
81.3
1988
90.4
1989
92.5
1990
90.5
1991
88.9
1992
86.0
1993
79.5
1994
87.9
1995
99.9
1996
100.0
1997
100.7
1998
93.9
1999
81.9
2000
84.6
2001
81.7
2002
78.0
2003
81.6
2004
90.5
2005
101.5
2006
114.2
2007
126.2
2008
159.4
2009
138.0
Fontes: FUNCEX e IPEA.

Preo
29.7
31.6
31.6
30.4
33.9
37.0
45.1
54.1
49.3
56.3
67.2
68.6
57.7
67.6
78.2
77.8
72.7
74.5
87.2
101.6
103.7
97.5
100.0
110.2
114.0
122.8
136.4
149.4
162.3
187.9
223.7
244.7
252.8
266.7
260.1
232.2

Importao
Quantum
55.9
60.0
62.8
67.1
72.7
87.2
117.2
128.2
125.3
120.4
117.4
113.9
92.8
104.4
107.6
115.5
124.9
115.9
109.9
100.4
97.3
99.5
100.0
94.9
89.9
90.3
90.4
87.4
84.6
89.8
98.7
109.8
117.3
127.0
154.9
138.6

42.4
38.2
37.0
33.6
35.3
38.9
36.7
32.3
29.0
24.0
22.2
21.7
28.4
27.1
25.5
29.7
31.0
34.1
35.1
47.2
63.8
94.2
100.0
118.2
120.4
102.3
115.8
119.2
104.7
100.9
119.3
125.7
145.9
178.1
209.6
173.1

Termos de Troca
100.3
95.7
106.7
124.5
107.5
99.0
79.8
70.3
68.4
67.6
71.7
68.7
87.3
77.9
84.0
80.1
72.5
76.7
78.2
79.1
90.4
100.4
100.0
106.1
104.5
90.7
93.6
93.4
92.2
90.9
91.7
92.4
97.3
99.3
102.9
99.6

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.20
BALANA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA: EXPORTAES POR FATOR AGREGADO
[em US$ milhes]

Ano
Total

Produtos
bsicos

1964
1,430
1,221
1965
1,596
1,301
1966
1,741
1,445
1967
1,654
1,302
1968
1,881
1,492
1969
2,311
1,796
1970
2,739
2,049
1971
2,904
1,989
1972
3,991
2,725
1973
6,199
4,097
1974
7,951
4,577
1975
8,670
5,027
1976
10,128
6,129
1977
12,119
6,957
1978
12,658
5,977
1979
15,244
6,553
1980
20,132
8,488
1981
23,293
8,920
1982
20,175
8,238
1983
21,899
8,535
1984
27,005
8,706
1985
25,639
8,538
1986
22,349
7,280
1987
26,224
8,022
1988
33,789
9,411
1989
34,383
9,549
1990
31,414
8,746
1991
31,620
8,737
1992
35,793
8,830
1993
38,555
9,366
1994
43,545
11,058
1995
46,506
10,969
1996
47,747
11,900
1997
52,994
14,474
1998
51,140
12,977
1999
48,011
11,828
2000
55,086
12,561
2001
58,224
15,342
2002
60,361
16,951
2003
73,084
21,179
2004
96,476
28,520
2005
118,308
34,721
2006
137,735
40,281
2007
160,648
51,594
2008
197,941
73,029
2009
152,981
61,957
Fonte:Secex.Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.

Exportaes
Industrializados
Produtos
(1)+(2)
semimanuf. (1)
205
284
293
343
381
495
665
822
1,222
1,942
3,180
3,434
3,618
4,884
6,502
8,532
11,376
13,999
11,686
13,058
18,004
16,821
14,895
18,014
24,079
24,441
22,119
22,448
26,504
28,882
31,852
34,711
35,026
37,672
37,507
35,311
41,027
41,144
41,965
50,596
66,373
81,105
94,473
105,745
119,754
87,836

115
154
141
147
179
213
251
247
391
568
919
849
842
1,044
1,419
1,886
2,349
2,116
1,433
1,782
2,872
2,758
2,491
3,175
4,892
5,807
5,108
4,691
5,750
5,445
6,893
9,146
8,613
8,478
8,120
7,982
8,499
8,243
8,966
10,943
13,430
15,961
19,522
21,802
27,072
20,485

Produtos
manuf. (2)
90
130
152
196
202
282
414
575
831
1,374
2,261
2,585
2,776
3,840
5,083
6,646
9,027
11,883
10,253
11,276
15,132
14,063
12,404
14,839
19,187
18,634
17,011
17,757
20,754
23,437
24,959
25,565
26,413
29,194
29,387
27,329
32,528
32,901
32,999
39,653
52,943
65,144
74,951
83,943
92,682
67,351

Op. Esp.
5
11
4
9
9
20
25
94
45
161
195
209
381
278
177
159
268
374
251
306
295
280
174
188
299
393
549
435
459
307
635
826
821
848
656
872
1,498
1,737
1,445
1,309
1,585
2,482
2,981
3,309
5,158
3,188

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.21A
BALANA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA: IMPORTAES POR CATEGORIA DE USO
[em US$ milhes]

Ano

Bens
Intermedirios

Combustveis

Bens de capital

1974
6,831
2,861
1975
6,112
2,893
1976
5,916
3,625
1977
5,733
3,842
1978
6,537
4,214
1979
8,355
6,455
1980
9,686
9,868
1981
8,290
11,022
1982
6,891
10,140
1983
5,424
8,194
1984
5,640
6,889
1985
5,888
5,712
1986
7,908
3,052
1987
8,015
4,147
1988
8,428
3,538
1989
10,486
3,797
Fonte:Funcex. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
Obs: Os dados no so comparveis com a classificao atual.

No-durveis
2,198
2,646
2,282
1,864
2,219
2,249
2,610
2,196
1,804
1,335
1,078
1,095
1,468
1,985
1,974
2,300

Bens de consumo
Durveis

439
370
392
456
545
868
695
490
468
417
265
369
1,478
800
540
1,469

181
163
138
105
138
128
97
93
90
57
46
92
139
103
126
209

Total
Total
620
533
530
561
683
996
792
583
558
474
311
461
1,617
903
666
1,678

12,641
12,210
12,383
12,023
13,684
18,084
22,954
22,091
19,395
15,429
13,916
13,153
14,045
15,051
14,604
18,265

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.21B
BALANA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA: IMPORTAES POR CATEGORIA DE USO
[em US$ milhes]

Ano

Matrias-primas e
produtos
intermedirios

Combustveis e
lubrificantes

1990
9,158
1991
9,779
1992
9,581
1993
12,964
1994
15,964
1995
22,828
1996
24,714
1997
26,867
1998
26,783
1999
24,059
2000
28,432
2001
27,340
2002
23,447
2003
25,767
2004
33,532
2005
37,813
2006
45,161
2007
59,375
2008
83,078
2009
59,649
Fonte:Secex. Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.

5,288
4,690
4,457
3,980
3,987
4,684
5,929
5,597
4,100
4,258
6,358
6,276
6,240
6,640
10,288
11,930
15,267
20,073
31,466
16,743

Bens de capital
No-durveis
3,963
4,218
4,434
5,089
7,585
11,486
12,918
16,098
16,102
13,577
13,605
14,808
11,643
10,346
12,128
15,379
18,891
25,113
35,910
29,675

1,491
1,505
1,152
1,462
2,428
4,876
5,199
5,533
5,508
4,218
3,993
3,631
3,400
3,121
3,670
4,551
5,914
7,808
9,813
9,887

Bens de consumo
Durveis
Automveis
Outros
31
142
304
676
1,435
3,039
1,562
2,465
2,677
1,214
1,211
1,475
834
597
584
820
1,914
3,120
5,342
5,466

729
706
626
1,085
1,678
3,058
3,024
3,187
2,592
1,969
2,239
2,041
1,675
1,818
2,604
3,106
4,158
5,130
7,363
6,147

Total
Total
Total
761
848
930
1,762
3,113
6,098
4,586
5,652
5,269
3,183
3,450
3,516
2,509
2,416
3,188
3,926
6,072
8,250
12,705
11,613

2,252
2,353
2,082
3,224
5,541
10,974
9,785
11,185
10,777
7,401
7,442
7,148
5,910
5,536
6,858
8,477
11,986
16,058
22,519
21,500

20,661
21,040
20,554
25,256
33,079
49,972
53,346
59,747
57,763
49,295
55,839
55,572
47,240
48,289
62,806
73,599
91,346
120,619
172,976
127,567

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.22
NDICES DA TAXA DE CMBIO EFETIVA REAL PARA O TOTAL DAS EXPORTAES
E PARA EXPORTAES DE MANUFATURADOS
[base: mdia de 2005 = 100]

Total das Exportaes (INPC)

Total das Exportaes

(IPA-OG)

1995
76.91
111.59
1996
73.36
115.83
1997
73.28
113.44
1998
74.75
115.98
1999
110.55
154.47
2000
104.96
131.81
2001
124.22
148.74
2002
121.25
136.89
2003
120.54
124.88
2004
117.91
117.84
2005
99.94
99.82
2006
91.25
93.47
2007
86.26
87.16
2008
90.55
85.66
2009
94.78
94.32
Fontes: FMI, FGV e IBGE. Elaboracao: Ipea/Dimac.
Deflatores: IPA-OG, IPA-OG/Indstria de Transformao e INPC.

Exportaes de
Manufaturados.(INPC)
80.07
76.76
77.90
79.98
118.80
114.38
136.52
124.86
122.15
117.58
99.91
91.23
84.91
84.95
86.62

Exportaes de
Manufaturados.(IPA-OG/IT)
107.51
111.99
115.75
121.43
164.02
143.57
166.01
145.55
132.00
120.98
99.84
92.21
86.77
83.83
89.63

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.23
INDICADORES MONETRIOS E FISCAIS
[em % do PIB]
Ano

Base monetria mdia

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Fonte: Bacen. Elaborao: Ipea\Dimac.

Senhoriagem
3.0
2.9
2.5
1.9
1.7
3.2
2.2
1.4
1.3
2.2
1.7
1.2
0.9
1.9
2.3
2.1
2.7
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.5

1.6
2.0
1.4
2.7
2.5
3.8
2.9
3.9
5.5
4.9
2.8
3.6
3.5
4.9
0.6
-0.2
1.3
0.8
0.9
-0.1
0.4
1.4
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.6

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.24
ARRECADAO TRIBUTRIA
[em % do PIB]
1993

1994

1995

1996

Imposto de importao
0.45
0.52
0.70
0.50
IPI
2.46
2.21
1.93
1.84
Imposto de Renda (IR)
3.93
3.85
4.11
3.99
Pessoa Fsica
0.22
0.28
0.31
0.30
Pessoa Jurdica
1.06
1.27
1.32
1.53
Fonte
2.64
2.30
2.47
2.17
Rendimentos trabalho
1.39
1.32
1.54
1.29
Rendimentos capital
0.89
0.63
0.59
0.58
Outros rendimentos
0.37
0.35
0.34
0.30
ITR
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.03
IPMF/CPMF
0.07
1.06
0.02
0.00
IOF
0.81
0.69
0.46
0.34
COFINS
1.37
2.40
2.16
2.12
PIS/PASEP
1.16
1.07
0.87
0.88
Contribuio sobre Lucro Lquido
0.79
0.97
0.83
0.78
Contribuio seguridade servidor
0.08
0.26
0.30
0.31
Outras receitas administradas
0.13
0.10
0.09
0.09
Receitas Administradas pela SRF
11.26
13.14
11.47
10.87
Demais Receitas
1.02
0.33
0.43
0.40
Total geral das Receitas Federais
12.28
13.47
11.90
11.27
Memo: ICMS Brasil
6.08
7.35
6.69
6.60
Fonte: Secretaria da Receita Federal (SRF). Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.55
1.79
3.89
0.30
1.36
2.22
1.33
0.54
0.35
0.03
0.74
0.40
2.04
0.81
0.82
0.28
0.07
11.41
0.59
12.00
6.35

0.67
1.67
4.68
0.31
1.28
3.09
1.50
1.22
0.38
0.02
0.83
0.36
1.91
0.77
0.79
0.25
0.08
12.03
1.57
13.60
6.22

0.74
1.55
4.84
0.31
1.29
3.24
1.43
1.28
0.52
0.03
0.75
0.46
3.02
0.92
0.69
0.30
0.06
13.35
1.33
14.68
6.37

0.72
1.60
4.78
0.31
1.50
2.97
1.55
0.91
0.52
0.02
1.23
0.27
3.38
0.85
0.79
0.31
0.15
14.10
0.83
14.92
6.98

0.70
1.49
4.98
0.31
1.30
3.37
1.66
1.17
0.54
0.02
1.32
0.28
3.56
0.88
0.72
0.30
0.26
14.50
0.61
15.11
7.24

0.54
1.34
5.81
0.30
2.29
3.21
1.52
1.11
0.58
0.02
1.38
0.27
3.54
0.87
0.90
0.30
0.78
15.75
0.70
16.44
7.13

0.48
1.16
5.47
0.30
1.99
3.18
1.56
1.12
0.50
0.02
1.36
0.26
3.50
1.02
0.99
0.26
0.56
15.07
0.96
16.08
7.02

0.47
1.18
5.30
0.32
2.01
2.98
1.62
0.89
0.46
0.02
1.36
0.27
4.08
1.03
1.05
0.00
0.71
15.48
1.14
16.61
7.10

0.42
1.23
5.79
0.34
2.38
3.07
1.66
0.93
0.48
0.02
1.36
0.28
4.09
1.03
1.22
0.00
0.64
16.09
0.80
16.89
7.21

0.42
1.19
5.76
0.36
2.36
3.04
1.65
0.88
0.51
0.01
1.35
0.29
3.85
1.01
1.18
0.00
0.55
15.61
0.86
16.47
7.25

0.46
1.28
6.06
0.52
2.64
2.91
1.60
0.82
0.49
0.01
1.38
0.30
3.89
1.01
1.30
0.00
0.60
16.30
1.06
17.36
7.05

0.57
1.31
6.38
0.50
2.82
3.06
1.72
0.83
0.52
0.02
0.04
0.68
4.02
1.05
1.46
0.00
0.43
15.96
1.20
17.16
7.33

0.51
0.98
6.10
0.47
2.69
2.93
1.66
0.73
0.55
0.02
0.01
0.61
3.75
1.01
1.41
0.00
0.59
14.98
0.85
15.83
7.21

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.25
NECESSIDADES DE FINANCIAMENTOS DO SETOR PBLICO
[em % do PIB]
1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Total nominal
24.67
6.55
5.33
5.5
6.97
5.28
7.86
2.06
2.27
2.27
4.61
2.47
Governo Central
12.08
3.27
2.5
2.81
1.88
2.87
Estados e Municpios
4.74
1.21
0.56
0.42
0.48
-0.06
Empresas estatais a
-5.21
-0.24
0.09
0.88
-0.01
-2.92
Dficit primrio
-3.25
-0.47
-0.34
0.25
-0.51
-2.13
Governo Central
-0.77
0.16
0.5
0.69
0.18
-0.2
Estados e Municpios
-1.19
0.07
-0.07
-0.05
0.33
-0.59
Empresas estatais a
29.89
6.79
5.24
4.61
6.98
8.2
Total juros nominais
11.11
2.54
2.62
2.02
5.12
4.6
Governo Central
12.84
3.11
2
2.12
1.7
3.07
Estados e Municpios
5.93
1.15
0.63
0.47
0.15
0.53
Empresas estatais a
4.07
5.26
3.3
3.35
7.42
6.64
Total juros reais
1.68
2.26
1.64
1.49
5.68
5.53
Governo Central
1.57
2.19
1.27
1.52
1.59
0.71
Estados e Municpios
0.82
0.81
0.39
0.34
0.15
0.4
Empresas estatais a
Fonte: Bacen. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.
(+) Deficit (-) Superavit.
Engloba as empresas federais, estaduais e municipais.
OBS: A partir de 1998 sem desvalorizao cambial sobre estoque da dvida mobiliria interna.

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

3.37
2.12
1.94
-0.69
-3.24
-1.73
-0.51
-0.99
6.61
3.85
2.45
0.3
4.64
3.16
1.23
0.24

3.29
1.94
1.86
-0.52
-3.38
-1.69
-0.8
-0.89
6.67
3.63
2.67
0.37
4.66
3.03
1.23
0.4

4.42
0.68
3.48
0.26
-3.21
-2.16
-0.72
-0.33
7.63
2.84
4.2
0.59
3.35
2.39
0.48
0.48

5.13
3.66
1.59
-0.11
-3.34
-2.28
-0.81
-0.25
8.47
5.94
2.4
0.14
4.61
3.17
1.34
0.1

2.79
1.39
1.75
-0.35
-3.8
-2.7
-0.9
-0.2
6.59
4.09
2.65
-0.15
2.28
1.58
0.91
-0.21

3.38
3.41
0.25
-0.28
-3.93
-2.6
-0.99
-0.34
7.31
6.01
1.25
0.06
6.57
5.48
1.03
0.05

3.54
3.14
0.7
-0.3
-3.24
-2.17
-0.83
-0.24
6.78
5.31
1.53
-0.06
5.17
4.22
1.01
-0.07

2.69
2.24
0.48
-0.03
-3.37
-2.23
-1.12
-0.01
6.06
4.47
1.6
-0.02
2.52
1.93
0.61
-0.02

1.9
0.83
1.17
-0.1
-3.54
-2.37
-1.02
-0.15
5.45
3.2
2.19
0.06
1.94
0.72
1.17
0.05

3.33
3.42
-0.07
-0.02
-2.05
-1.35
-0.67
-0.03
5.38
4.77
0.6
0.01
5.74
4.99
0.74
0.01

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.26
DVIDA LQUIDA DO SETOR PBLICO
[em % do PIB]
1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Dvida Total
Gov. Central + Bacen
Estados e Municpios
Empresas Estatais

30.01
12.9
10.01
7.1

27.98
12.13
9.73
6.12

30.72
14.65
10.65
5.41

31.83
17.31
11.96
2.56

38.94
23.34
13.21
2.39

44.53
27.26
14.72
2.55

45.5
28.5
15.0
2.0

49.9
30.2
16.8
2.8

51.3
32.1
16.8
2.4

53.5
33.2
18.2
2.2

48.2
29.5
17.2
1.5

48.0
30.8
16.2
1.0

45.9
30.4
15.0
0.5

43.9
29.8
13.6
0.4

38.8
24.5
14.0
0.3

42.8
29.7
12.9
0.2

Dvida Externa
Gov. Central + Bacen
Estados e Municpios
Empresas Estatais

8.69
6.36
0.35
1.98

5.12
3.18
0.3
1.63

3.61
1.45
0.34
1.82

3.98
1.8
0.44
1.73

5.77
3.92
0.62
1.23

9.38
7.17
0.81
1.4

9.0
6.9
0.9
1.2

9.4
7.6
1.0
0.9

13.6
11.3
1.2
1.1

11.2
9.2
1.1
0.9

7.7
6.1
0.9
0.7

3.3
2.2
0.7
0.4

-1.1
-1.9
0.6
0.3

-7.2
-7.8
0.5
0.2

-11.1
-12.0
0.6
0.3

-9.2
-10.0
0.5
0.3

21.32
22.86
Dvida Interna
6.54
8.95
Gov. Central + Bacen
9.66
9.42
Estados e Municpios
5.12
4.49
Empresas Estatais
Fonte: Bacen. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

27.11
13.21
10.31
3.6

27.85
15.51
11.52
0.83

33.17
19.42
12.59
1.16

35.16
20.09
13.91
1.15

36.5
21.6
14.1
0.81

40.4
22.6
15.9
1.93

37.7
20.8
15.6
1.35

42.4
24.0
17.1
1.31

40.5
23.4
16.3
0.8

44.7
28.6
15.5
0.57

46.9
51.1
49.9
32.3
37.7
36.5
14.4
13.2
13.3
0.25 0.18044 0.02735

52.0
39.6
12.4
-0.0774

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.27
DVIDA CONSOLIDADA
R$ milhes

Estados

2003

2004

2005

Dezembro
Dezembro
Abril
749
802
798
Acre
4,497
4,959
5,010
Alagoas
260
274
270
Amap
2,198
2,115
2,083
Amazonas
12,419
13,181
12,985
Bahia
4,449
4,321
4,274
Cear
1,870
2,382
2,397
Distrito Federal
3,386
3,445
3,400
Esprito Santo
11,213
12,027
12,120
Gois
5,588
5,840
5,821
Maranho
5,942
6,044
5,987
Mato Grosso
5,662
6,001
6,041
Mato Grosso do Sul
37,714
42,715
44,617
Minas Gerais
2,297
2,639
2,611
Par
2,736
2,741
2,702
Paraba
12,485
14,073
14,280
Paran
5,429
5,506
5,499
Pernambuco
2,757
2,908
2,868
Piau
40,060
43,782
44,560
Rio de Janeiro
1,198
1,380
1,394
Rio Grande do Norte
27,607
30,353
31,135
Rio Grande do Sul
1,890
2,070
2,057
Rondnia
304
286
379
Roraima
9,159
10,019
10,061
Santa Catarina
106,833
121,408
124,204
So Paulo
1,391
1,493
1,509
Sergipe
886
860
805
Tocantins
310,978
343,625
349,864
Brasil
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.

2006

Agosto
850
5,151
262
2,019
12,648
3,957
2,368
3,351
12,164
5,720
5,880
6,118
45,210
2,548
2,643
14,656
5,345
2,836
45,465
1,362
31,068
nd
465
9,944
125,113
1,788
741
349,671

Dezembro
899
5,510
nd
1,994
12,493
4,031
2,409
nd
12,173
5,855
5,786
6,117
45,764
2,523
2,606
15,603
5,230
2,705
45,729
1,314
31,835
nd
566
10,622
126,001
1,778
688
350,234

Abril

2005
Agosto
650
537
7,605
32,913

Dezembro
664
618
7,567
nd

Abril

900
5,661
nd
1,949
12,098
3,578
2,427
3,255
nd
5,744
5,652
6,062
46,724
2,446
2,499
15,650
5,092
2,591
45,838
1,345
32,341
1,973
nd
10,757
125,506
1,744
620
342,455

Agosto
943
5,816
nd
1,933
12,076
3,626
2,571
3,223
nd
5,748
5,615
6,110
47,517
2,551
2,459
15,839
5,014
2,553
46,450
1,365
32,900
1,944
nd
10,837
127,766
1,749
607
347,213

Dezembro
977
5,927
nd
1,967
12,197
3,906
2,648
3,252
nd
5,803
5,593
6,208
48,088
2,690
2,563
16,298
4,998
2,733
48,024
1,372
33,744
nd
nd
10,911
132,489
1,878
643
282,330

Abril
971
5,898
250
1,942
12,099
3,849
2,665
3,205
12,479
5,682
5,503
6,220
48,562
2,644
2,478
15,476
4,895
2,439
48,502
1,374
34,077
1,981
553
10,900
134,220
1,832
621
349,931

2007
Agosto
962
5,896
242
1,969
11,801
3,548
2,687
3,231
12,516
5,623
5,401
6,199
49,305
2,606
2,421
16,080
4,792
2,644
48,854
1,347
34,372
1,999
539
10,366
135,749
1,815
591
335,315

Dexembro
960
6,218
259
1,957
11,445
3,520
2,793
3,261
12,637
5,594
5,356
6,308
52,149
2,621
2,446
16,431
4,758
2,585
50,463
1,317
35,930
1,971
574
10,636
141,371
1,825
635
386,022

2008
Abril
947
6,386
nd
1,943
1,064
3,437
2,838
3,276
12,804
5,571
nd
6,324
53,603
2,582
2,594
16,556
4,736
2,517
51,980
1,306
37,059
2,034
604
10,708
147,417
1,462
606
380,351

DVIDA CONSOLIDADA
R$ milhes
Municpios

Dezembro

Dezembro

Belo Horizonte
649
678
Porto Alegre
589
584
Rio de Janeiro
6,977
7,761
So Paulo
26,303
31,558
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.

Abril
655
569
7,821
32,590

nd
590
7,451
35,040

2006
Agosto
nd
561
7,493
34,277

Dezembro
nd
598
7,608
36,034

Abril
839
568
7,576
37,362

2007
Agosto
1,095
557
7,551
37,859

Dexembro
1,199
545
7,651
39,626

2008
Abril
1,230
540
7,783
nd

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.28
DEDUES
R$ milhes

Estados
Acre
Alagoas

2003

2004

Dezembro

Dezembro

55
14

2005
Abril

84
9

2006

Agosto
192
119

240
221

Dezembro
243
22

Abril

Agosto
312
140

342
203

0
0
nd
Amap
123
174
nd
nd
501
444
Amazonas
818
807
452
604
470
173
303
Bahia
804
896
445
895
914
0
44
Cear
436
425
154
841
836
270
275
Distrito Federal
421
475
280
477
416
0
430
nd
Esprito Santo
1,106
1,392
1,524
1,442
246
282
Gois
511
494
786
nd
nd
139
699
Maranho
916
0
1,506
1,158
1,130
436
1,006
Mato Grosso
1,097
1,322
1,005
1,537
1,315
0
0
0
Mato Grosso do Sul
0
77
0
17
2,978
5,227
Minas Gerais
6,209
7,152
6,057
7,871
8,342
176
159
Par
333
476
294
475
418
117
149
Paraba
359
251
22
201
99
3,729
3,588
Paran
4,060
2,342
2,112
2,350
2,220
0
0
0
Pernambuco
214
343
384
410
196
252
Piau
558
845
124
363
647
1,304
853
Rio de Janeiro
2,357
3,204
1,828
4,187
4,522
40
185
Rio Grande do Norte
314
338
313
456
395
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Rio Grande do Sul
108
119
nd
nd
417
Rondnia
230
417
15
253
Roraima
310
408
407
nd
nd
604
695
Santa Catarina
2,728
2,917
2,602
2,984
3,044
8,956
11,372
So Paulo
13,971
15,943
13,463
15,435
16,178
154
168
Sergipe
356
708
628
746
381
483
253
Tocantins
420
505
375
403
324
20,696
26,850
38,961
41,954
33,117
43,759
44,482
Brasil
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs: Refere-se a ativos disponveis e haveres financeiros. Este dado subtrado da dvida consolidada para se obter a dvida consolidada lquida.

Dezembro

2007
Agosto

Abril

Dexembro

2008
Abril

132
0

248
0

299
0

165
0

387
41

nd
410
581
264
369
1,379
nd
749
633
0
6,231
254
104
1,951
65
471
2,951
402
0
nd
nd
2,880
14,133
242

191
744
974
853
1,236
1,806
609
1,355
979
169
8,170
586
384
2,181
699
928
4,824
653
0
312
320
3,296
19,704
462
272
49,271

168
878
1,114
777
1,675
2,078
419
1,559
753
413
9,025
835
450
2,198
980
1,028
5,544
466
272
408
390
3,021
18,743
579
340
47,056

75
945
1,074
1,008
1,242
2,051
406
1,115
764
479
7,456
456
244
1,925
354
205
3,888
446
415
304
739
2,959
20,909
513
399
50,536

nd
1,511
1,809
1,851
1,861
2,374
774
1,708
nd
753
10,749
890
717
2,510
1,094
642
6,429
317
885
554
780
3,587
5,601
885
602
49,311

335
25,938

DEDUES
R$ milhes
Municpios

Dezembro

Dezembro

Abril

2005
Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

2006
Agosto

184
232
0
nd
nd
Belo Horizonte
0
0
134
147
137
201
212
Porto Alegre
120
39
3,061
2,867
2,830
3,863
3,990
Rio de Janeiro
2,392
2,406
1,913
2,081
nd
3,828
3,680
So Paulo
26
0
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs: Refere-se a ativos disponveis e haveres financeiros. Este dado subtrado da dvida consolidada para se obter a dvida consolidada lquida.

Dezembro
nd
167
3,684
3,089

Abril
258
230
4,403
4,698

2007
Agosto
264
229
4,195
5,021

Dexembro
23
228
4,053
4,410

2008
Abril
631
419
4,807
nd

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.29
DVIDA CONSOLIDADA LQUIDA
R$ milhes

Estados
Acre
Alagoas
Amap
Amazonas
Bahia
Cear
Distrito Federal
Esprito Santo
Gois
Maranho
Mato Grosso

2003

2004

Dezembro

Dezembro

694
4,482
260
1,697
12,246
4,449
1,600
3,386
10,967
5,449
5,506

718
4,950
274
1,671
12,878
4,277
2,107
3,014
11,744
5,142
5,038

2005
Abril
606
4,891
146
1,264
12,182
3,838
1,976
2,294
11,609
4,905
4,890

Agosto
610
4,930
88
1,212
11,752
3,532
1,893
1,959
11,670
5,720
4,559

2006
Dezembro
656
5,488
nd
1,542
12,048
3,877
2,130
nd
11,387
4,350
4,781

Abril
588
5,521
nd
1,345
11,203
2,737
1,950
1,732
11,148
4,586
4,115

Agosto
601
5,613
nd
1,463
11,162
2,790
2,155
1,780
11,319
4,618
4,300

Dezembro
845
5,927
172
1,556
11,616
3,642
2,279
1,872
11,335
5,054
4,960

Abril
723
5,898
59
1,197
11,126
2,996
1,428
1,399
11,341
4,327
4,590

2007
Agosto
nd
5,896
nd
1,091
10,687
2,770
1,012
1,153
12,097
4,065
4,648

Dexembro
795
6,218
184
1,012
10,371
2,512
1,551
1,210
12,232
4,480
4,504

2008
Abril
560
6,345
nd
431
9,255
1,585
977
902
12,030
3,863
nd

5,662

6,001

6,041

6,041

6,117

6,062

6,093

6,208

6,051

5,786

5,829

5,571

34,735

37,488

38,408

38,058

39,707

38,854

39,175

41,767

40,391

40,279

44,693

42,853

Par
Paraba
Paran

2,121
2,618
8,756

2,480
2,592
10,485

2,277
2,342
10,220

2,073
2,391
12,314

2,230
2,585
13,490

1,971
2,355
13,300

2,132
2,298
13,619

2,437
2,464
14,346

2,058
2,095
13,295

1,771
1,971
13,882

2,165
2,201
14,506

1,692
1,877
14,046

Pernambuco
Piau

5,429
2,562

5,506
2,656

5,285
2,310

5,002
1,991

5,230
2,580

4,708
2,228

4,604
1,906

4,920
2,262

4,196
1,511

3,812
1,616

4,404
2,380

3,642
1,875

38,756
42,929
Rio de Janeiro
42,203
42,261
43,902
41,651
41,929
45,073
43,679
43,310
46,575
1,157
1,195
Rio Grande do Norte
1,080
1,025
1,001
889
971
970
721
880
870
27,607
30,353
Rio Grande do Sul
31,135
31,068
31,835
32,341
32,900
33,744
34,077
34,099
35,514
1,782
1,951
Rondnia
1,827
nd
nd
1,556
1,527
1,640
1,541
1,592
1,667
289
33
Roraima
68
57
160
83
56
124
233
149
-165
8,555
9,324
Santa Catarina
7,333
7,027
8,020
7,772
7,793
8,031
7,604
7,345
7,678
97,877
110,036
So Paulo
110,234
109,170
112,538
110,070
111,588
118,356
114,517
117,007
120,462
1,237
1,325
Sergipe
1,153
1,080
1,150
999
1,368
1,637
1,370
1,236
1,313
403
607
Tocantins
385
236
313
218
283
308
349
251
235
290,282
316,775
310,903
307,718
317,117
309,984
314,044
267,731
Brasil
318,774
288,259
335,397
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs.: Conceito utilizado pela lei da responsabilidade fiscal para verificar os limites de endividamento dos estados. Obtm-se os dados de dvida consolidada lquida subtraindo as dedues da dvida consolidada.

45,551
988
36,174
1,481
-175
7,121
121,815
577
4
321,040

Mato Grosso do Sul

Minas Gerais

DVIDA CONSOLIDADA LQUIDA

R$ milhes
Municpios

Dezembro

Dezembro

Abril

2005
Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

2006
Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

2007
Agosto

Dexembro

471
418
664
Belo Horizonte
649
678
nd
nd
nd
581
831
1,176
435
390
481
389
348
431
Porto Alegre
470
546
337
328
318
4,760
4,739
4,737
3,588
3,503
3,924
Rio de Janeiro
4,585
5,355
3,173
3,356
3,597
30,677
30,832
31,213
30,597
32,944
So Paulo
26,277
31,558
nd
32,664
32,838
35,217
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs.: Conceito utilizado pela lei da responsabilidade fiscal para verificar os limites de endividamento dos estados. Obtm-se os dados de dvida consolidada lquida subtraindo as dedues da dvida consolidada.

2008
Abril
599
121
2,976
nd

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.30
DVIDA CONTRATUAL
R$ milhes

Estados

2003

2004

Dezembro

Dezembro

2005
Abril

Agosto

678
693
Acre
691
746
4,447
4,779
Alagoas
4,827
4,962
129
129
Amap
127
122
0
0
0
0
Amazonas
12,112
12,377
Bahia
12,153
11,781
4,374
4,214
Cear
4,168
3,851
1,669
1,742
Distrito Federal
1,730
1,669
2,775
2,837
Esprito Santo
2,788
2,729
11,213
12,027
Gois
12,120
12,164
5,478
5,695
Maranho
5,680
5,584
5,716
5,799
Mato Grosso
5,743
5,593
5,617
5,957
Mato Grosso do Sul
5,997
5,965
37,238
42,112
Minas Gerais
41,342
41,942
2,151
2,100
Par
2,054
1,986
2,640
2,571
Paraba
2,531
2,463
11,797
12,498
Paran
12,690
13,039
5,376
5,449
Pernambuco
5,401
5,248
2,541
2,664
Piau
2,620
2,553
39,466
42,804
Rio de Janeiro
43,572
43,407
1,112
1,306
Rio Grande do Norte
1,289
1,265
26,350
28,776
Rio Grande do Sul
29,553
29,483
1,652
1,819
nd
Rondnia
1,814
159
151
Roraima
211
202
9,065
9,997
Santa Catarina
9,875
9,764
105,140
118,527
So Paulo
121,106
120,644
1,275
1,370
Sergipe
1,376
1,649
801
773
Tocantins
718
655
300,972
329,167
332,177
329,465
Brasil
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs.: A dvida contratual integra a dvida consolidada. Engloba a dvida renegociada com a unio.

2006
Dezembro
793
4,975
nd
0
11,679
3,885
1,693
nd
12,173
5,577
5,483
5,972
42,293
1,959
2,406
13,318
5,133
2,432
43,539
1,228
29,860
nd
162
9,755
120,972
1,647
602
327,537

Abril
855
4,784
nd
0
11,275
3,433
1,665
2,605
nd
5,466
5,351
6,059
43,257
1,885
2,300
13,354
4,960
2,168
43,560
1,266
30,047
1,747
nd
9,660
121,341
1,602
535
319,175

Agosto
797
5,277
nd
0
11,236
3,481
1,695
2,589
nd
5,473
5,315
5,965
44,093
1,953
2,262
12,298
4,872
2,121
44,184
1,329
30,635
1,723
nd
9,729
123,353
1,590
522
322,491

Dezembro
855
5,381
nd
0
11,258
3,537
1,724
2,602
nd
5,481
5,282
6,059
45,240
2,064
2,331
12,308
4,840
2,303
45,582
1,287
31,455
nd
nd
9,838
127,448
1,626
557
261,767

Abril
852
5,355
112
0
10,848
3,481
1,712
2,562
12,479
5,422
5,196
6,054
45,693
2,025
2,119
12,221
4,751
2,008
45,958
1,261
31,796
1,726
182
9,819
129,102
1,592
533
324,631

2007
Agosto
847
5,345
108
0
10,530
3,182
1,696
2,578
12,516
5,361
5,100
6,023
46,434
1,995
2,065
12,159
4,649
2,214
46,305
1,243
32,099
17,057
174
9,792
130,498
1,573
507
310,589

Dexembro
848
5,672
106
0
10,247
3,142
1,690
2,622
12,637
5,331
5,061
6,107
48,960
2,020
2,027
12,329
4,617
2,159
47,967
1,220
33,456
1,710
166
9,990
136,071
1,554
550
358,258

2008
Abril
834
5,844
nd
0
9,931
3,061
1,686
2,651
12,804
5,306
nd
6,203
50,436
1,995
2,089
12,534
4,600
2,060
49,522
1,219
34,592
1,763
196
10,075
140,980
1,245
510
362,134

DVIDA CONTRATUAL
R$ milhes
Municpios

Dezembro

Dezembro

Abril

2005
Agosto

558
556
Belo Horizonte
566
575
461
438
Porto Alegre
464
472
7,103
6,882
Rio de Janeiro
6,507
7,050
29,806
29,950
So Paulo
24,702
29,178
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs.: A dvida contratual integra a dvida consolidada. Engloba a dvida renegociada com a unio.

Dezembro
549
440
6,853
nd

Abril
nd
412
6,704
31,395

2006
Agosto
nd
386
6,740
30,676

Dezembro
nd
396
6,791
32,290

Abril
715
382
6,745
32,934

2007
Agosto
980
378
6,708
33,503

Dexembro
1,008
363
6,846
35,090

2008
Abril
1,059
367
6,953
nd

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.31
RECEITA CORRENTE LQUIDA
R$ milhes

Estados

2003

2004

Dezembro

Dezembro

2005
Abril

2006

Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

2007
Agosto

Dezembro

2008
Abril

Acre

1,023

1,157

1,236

1,330

1,467

1,548

1,609

1,636

1,743

nd

1,933

2,018

Alagoas
Amap
Amazonas
Bahia
Cear

1,619
941
3,055
7,507
4,210

1,918
1,210
3,751
9,075
4,636

2,079
1,249
4,029
9,414
4,884

2,291
1,330
4,147
9,798
5,114

2,443
nd
4,294
10,329
5,304

2,507
nd
4,414
10,619
5,622

2,607
nd
4,583
10,817
5,838

2,675
1,594
4,670
11,360
6,033

2,821
1,751
4,774
11,497
6,106

2,908
1,839
4,916
11,884
6,289

3,105
1,917
5,332
12,585
6,560

3,254
nd
5,686
13,568
7,038

Distrito Federal

4,467

5,309

5,617

5,896

6,150

6,396

6,690

6,970

7,164

7,402

8,122

8,640

Esprito Santo

3,332

4,122

4,549

4,799

nd

5,181

5,309

5,553

5,781

6,138

6,368

6,760

Gois
Maranho
Mato Grosso

4,554
2,454
3,136

5,305
2,951
3,873

5,660
3,164
4,146

6,064
3,417
4,203

6,153
3,700
4,296

6,047
3,882
4,281

5,929
4,144
4,279

6,231
4,386
4,517

6,502
4,538
4,678

7,260
4,693
4,871

7,619
4,900
4,911

7,912
5,279
nd

2,124
14,306

2,591
16,696

2,825
17,816

2,821
18,869

3,042
19,550

3,111
20,545

3,303
21,185

3,248
22,083

3,648
22,161

3,780
22,563

3,931
23,804

4,174
26,687

Par
Paraba
Paran

3,503
2,235
8,367

4,068
2,336
9,245

4,225
2,491
9,581

4,501
2,718
10,028

4,847
2,912
10,454

5,070
3,028
10,804

5,225
3,143
10,973

5,591
3,254
11,407

5,784
3,315
11,801

6,152
3,420
12,023

6,273
3,669
12,469

6,705
3,975
12,911

Pernambuco

4,629

5,294

5,590

5,914

6,281

6,925

7,188

7,389

7,590

7,884

8,301

8,852

Piau

1,689

1,940

2,055

2,256

2,358

2,558

2,643

2,671

2,814

2,885

3,054

3,329

19,169

21,009

21,796

22,692

23,094

23,833

24,701

26,133

26,117

26,455

26,850

28,240

Rio Grande do Norte

Rio Grande do Sul

2,167
9,860

2,619
10,737

2,792
11,187

2,964
11,645

3,144
12,349

3,261
12,750

3,454
12,937

3,692
13,312

3,792
13,393

3,609
13,858

3,957
13,991

4,228
15,066

Rondnia

1,467

1,751

1,834

nd

nd

2,153

2,195

2,283

2,351

2,482

2,586

2,792

719

777

853

955

1,039

1,128

1,165

1,200

1,246

1,279

1,315

1,389

5,130

5,669

5,959

6,345

6,719

6,958

7,132

7,377

7,576

7,821

8,498

8,972

58,210
2,632
2,272
215,736

59,189
2,743
2,347
221,325

62,468
2,866
2,416
185,612

64,635
2,961
2,504
239,041

68,984
2,992
2,636
214,142

70,568
3,103
2,781
258,503

74,791
3,360
3,092
268,716

Mato Grosso do Sul

Minas Gerais

Rio de Janeiro

Roraima
Santa Catarina

43,699
49,419
52,208
54,940
56,769
So Paulo
1,805
2,043
2,155
2,353
2,537
Sergipe
1,538
1,743
1,898
2,042
2,268
Tocantins
158,705
181,246
191,292
199,432
201,501
Brasil
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs.: Conceito considerado pela lei de responsabilidade fiscal para verificar os limites de endividamento dos estados.

RECEITA CORRENTE LQUIDA

R$ milhes
Municpios

Dezembro

Dezembro

Abril

2005
Agosto

Dezembro

2,399
2,520
2,618
Belo Horizonte
1,891
2,329
1,775
1,843
1,929
Porto Alegre
1,666
1,715
7,031
7,202
7,064
Rio de Janeiro
5,929
6,773
13,335
13,700
So Paulo
10,735
12,805
nd
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.
Obs.: Conceito considerado pela lei de responsabilidade fiscal para verificar os limites de endividamento dos estados.

Abril
nd
1,990
7,273
15,970

2006
Agosto
nd
2,022
7,426
14,849

Dezembro
nd
2,060
7,583
16,756

Abril
2,991
2,118
7,999
17,500

2007
Agosto
3,075
2,161
8,235
17,780

Dezembro
3,247
2,296
8,633
18,582

2008
Abril
3,474
2,469
8,883
nd

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.32
DVIDA CONSOLIDADA LQUIDA / RECEITA CORRENTE LQUIDA

Estados

2003

2004

2005

Dezembro
Dezembro
Abril
0.68
0.62
0.49
Acre
2.77
2.58
2.35
Alagoas
0.28
0.23
0.12
Amap
0.56
0.45
0.31
Amazonas
1.63
1.42
1.29
Bahia
1.06
0.92
0.79
Cear
0.36
0.40
0.35
Distrito Federal
1.02
0.73
0.50
Esprito Santo
2.41
2.21
2.05
Gois
2.22
1.74
1.55
Maranho
1.76
1.30
1.18
Mato Grosso
2.67
2.32
2.14
Mato Grosso do Sul
2.43
2.25
2.16
Minas Gerais
0.61
0.61
0.54
Par
1.17
1.11
0.94
Paraba
1.05
1.13
1.07
Paran
1.17
1.04
0.95
Pernambuco
1.52
1.37
1.12
Piau
2.02
2.04
1.94
Rio de Janeiro
0.53
0.46
0.39
Rio Grande do Norte
2.80
2.83
2.78
Rio Grande do Sul
1.21
1.11
1.00
Rondnia
0.40
0.04
0.08
Roraima
1.67
1.64
1.23
Santa Catarina
2.24
2.23
2.11
So Paulo
0.68
0.65
0.54
Sergipe
0.26
0.35
0.20
Tocantins
1.83
1.75
1.63
Brasil
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.

2006

Agosto
0.46
2.15
0.07
0.29
1.20
0.69
0.32
0.41
1.92
1.67
1.08
2.14
2.02
0.46
0.88
1.23
0.85
0.88
1.86
0.35
2.67
nd
0.06
1.11
1.99
0.46
0.12
1.54

Dezembro
0.45
2.25
nd
0.36
1.17
0.73
0.35
nd
1.85
1.18
1.11
2.01
2.03
0.46
0.89
1.29
0.83
1.09
1.90
0.32
2.58
nd
0.15
1.19
1.98
0.45
0.14
1.57

Abril

2005
Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

0.38
2.20
nd
0.30
1.06
0.49
0.30
0.33
1.84
1.18
0.96
1.95
1.89
0.39
0.78
1.23
0.68
0.87
1.75
0.27
2.54
0.72
nd
1.12
1.89
0.38
0.10
1.44

Agosto
0.37
2.15
nd
0.32
1.03
0.48
0.32
0.34
1.91
1.11
1.00
1.84
1.85
0.41
0.73
1.24
0.64
0.72
1.70
0.28
2.54
1
nd
1.09
1.89
0.50
0.12
1.42

Dezembro
0.52
2.22
0.11
0.33
1.02
0.60
0.33
0.34
1.82
1.15
1.10
1.81
1.89
0.44
0.76
1.26
0.67
0.85
1.72
0.26
2.54
0.72
0.10
1.09
1.90
0.57
0.13
1.44

Abril

2006
Agosto

Dezembro

Abril

0.41
2.09
0.03
0.25
0.97
0.49
0.20
0.24
1.74
0.95
0.98
1.66
1.82
0.36
0.63
1.13
0.55
0.54
1.67
0.19
2.54
0.66
0.19
1.00
1.77
0.46
0.14
1.33

2007
Agosto
nd
2.03
0.04
0.22
0.90
0.44
0.14
0.19
1.67
0.87
0.95
1.53
1.79
0.29
0.58
1.15
0.48
0.56
1.64
0.24
2.46
0.64
0.12
0.94
1.70
0.41
0.10
1.35

Dezembro
0.44
2.00
0.10
0.19
0.82
0.38
0.19
0.19
1.61
0.91
0.92
1.48
1.88
0.35
0.60
1.16
0.53
0.78
1.73
0.22
2.54
0.64
-0.13
0.90
1.71
0.42
0.08
1.30

2008
Abril
0.39
1.95
nd
0.08
0.68
0.23
0.11
0.13
1.52
0.73
nd
1.33
1.61
0.25
0.47
1.09
0.41
0.56
1.61
0.23
2.40
0.53
-0.13
0.79
1.63
0.17
0.00
1.19

DVIDA CONSOLIDADA LQUIDA/RECEITA CORRENTE LQUIDA

Municpios

Dezembro

Dezembro

Belo Horizonte
0.34
0.29
Porto Alegre
0.28
0.32
Rio de Janeiro
0.77
0.79
So Paulo
2.45
2.46
Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Elaborao Ipea\Dimac.
* Para 2006: Secretarias Estaduais de Fazenda.

Abril
0.20
0.24
0.68
2.30

0.17
0.21
0.66
2.25

0.25
0.25
0.67
nd

nd
0.20
0.49
1.95

nd
0.17
0.47
2.06

nd
0.21
0.52
1.97

0.19
0.16
0.40
1.87

2007
Agosto
0.27
0.15
0.41
1.85

Dezembro
0.36
0.13
0.42
1.90

2008
Abril
0.17
0.05
0.33
nd

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.33
COTAES DAS MOEDAS INTERNACIONAIS

Ano

Iene /US$

Marco Alemo
/US$

Franco Francs
/US$

Libra
Italiana /US$

1975
296.79
2.46
4.29
1976
296.55
2.52
4.80
1977
268.51
2.32
4.91
1978
210.44
2.01
4.51
1979
219.14
1.83
4.25
1980
226.74
1.82
4.23
1981
220.54
2.26
5.43
1982
249.08
2.43
6.57
1983
237.51
2.55
7.62
1984
237.52
2.85
8.74
1985
238.54
2.94
8.99
1986
168.52
2.17
6.93
1987
144.64
1.80
6.01
1988
128.15
1.76
5.96
1989
137.96
1.88
6.38
1990
144.79
1.62
5.45
1991
134.71
1.66
5.64
1992
126.65
1.56
5.29
1993
111.20
1.65
5.66
1994
102.21
1.62
5.55
1995
94.06
1.43
4.99
1996
108.78
1.50
5.12
1997
120.99
1.73
5.84
1998
130.91
1.76
5.90
1999
113.91
2000
107.77
2001
121.53
2002
125.39
2003
115.93
2004
108.19
2005
110.22
2006
116.30
2007
117.75
2008
103.36
Fonte: International Financial Statistics-FMI e Bacen. Elaborao: IPEA/DIMAC.
a
Mdias do priodo.

652.85
832.34
882.39
848.66
830.86
856.45
1136.76
1352.51
1518.85
1756.96
1909.44
1490.81
1296.07
1301.63
1372.09
1198.10
1240.61
1232.41
1573.67
1612.44
1628.93
1542.95
1703.10
1736.21

Libra
esterlina /US$
0.45
0.56
0.57
0.52
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.57
0.66
0.75
0.78
0.68
0.61
0.56
0.61
0.56
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.65
0.63
0.64
0.61
0.60
0.62
0.66
0.69
0.67
0.61
0.55
0.55
0.54
0.50
0.54

US$ /Libra
esterlina
2.21
1.80
1.74
1.92
2.12
2.32
2.01
1.75
1.52
1.33
1.28
1.47
1.63
1.78
1.64
1.78
1.76
1.76
1.50
1.53
1.58
1.56
1.64
1.66
1.62
1.51
1.44
1.50
1.63
1.83
1.82
1.84
2.00
1.84

Euro/US$

0.94
1.09
1.12
1.06
0.89
0.81
0.80
0.80
0.73
0.68

US$/Euro

1.07
0.92
0.89
0.94
1.13
1.24
1.24
1.25
1.37
1.46

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.34
TAXAS DE JUROS INTERNACIONAISa (% a .a.) e NDICE DE AOESb

Ano
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

T-Note
(2 anos)
8.16
6.49
4.77
4.05
5.94
6.16
5.84
5.99
5.13
5.43
6.26
3.82
2.64
1.65
2.38
3.85
4.82
4.36
2.00
0.96

T-Note
(5 anos)
8.37
7.37
6.19
5.15
6.68
6.39
6.18
6.22
5.15
5.54
6.15
4.55
3.82
2.97
3.43
4.05
4.75
4.43
2.80
2.19

Estados Unidos
T-Note
T-Bonds
(10 anos)
(30 anos)
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.08
6.58
6.44
6.35
5.26
5.64
6.03
5.02
4.61
4.02
4.27
4.29
4.79
4.63
3.67
3.26

Fonte: International Financial Statistics-FMI. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.

Mdias do perodo.
b
Fim de perodo.
a

8.54
7.85
7.00
5.86
7.06
6.88
6.70
6.57
5.58
5.87
5.94
5.49
5.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.90
4.83
4.28
4.07

ndice Dow
Jones
2,634
3,169
3,301
3,776
3,834
5,117
6,448
7,908
9,181
11,497
10,787
10,022
8,342
10,410
10,783
10,718
12,463
13,265
8,776
10,428

Nasdaq
374
586
677
777
752
1,052
1,291
1,570
2,193
4,069
2,471
1,950
1,336
2,007
2,175
2,205
2,415
2,652
1,577
2,269

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.35
TAXAS DE CRESCIMENTO DO PIB EM REGIES E PASES SELECIONADOS (%)
Pas/Regio

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Brasil
4.4
2.2
3.4
0.0
0.3
4.3
1.3
2.7
Mundo
3.3
3.7
4.0
2.6
3.6
4.8
2.3
2.9
Economias avanadas
2.8
3.0
3.5
2.6
3.5
3.9
1.2
1.6
EUA
2.7
3.6
4.5
4.2
4.4
3.7
0.8
1.6
rea do euro
2.2
1.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.8
1.9
0.9
Alemanha
1.7
0.8
1.7
2.0
1.9
3.1
1.2
Espanha
2.8
2.4
4.0
4.5
4.7
5.1
3.6
2.7
Frana
1.8
1.1
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.9
1.9
1.0
Grcia
2.1
2.4
3.6
3.4
3.4
4.5
4.5
3.9
Irlanda
9.9
8.1
10.8
8.5
10.7
9.1
5.9
6.4
Itlia
2.9
1.1
2.0
1.4
1.9
3.6
1.8
0.5
Austrlia
3.5
4.3
3.9
5.0
4.4
3.4
2.1
4.1
Coria do Sul
8.9
6.8
4.7
-6.9
9.5
8.5
3.8
7.0
Japo
1.8
3.5
1.8
-1.8
-0.1
2.9
0.2
0.3
Reino Unido
2.9
2.6
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.8
2.4
2.1
Pases em desenvolvimento/a
6.1
6.6
5.2
3.0
4.1
6.0
4.3
5.1
frica
3.0
5.6
3.4
2.8
2.8
3.5
4.9
6.1
frica do Sul
3.1
4.3
2.6
0.5
2.4
4.2
2.7
3.7
Angola
10.4
11.2
7.9
3.2
3.0
3.1
14.5
Gana
4.0
4.6
4.2
4.7
4.4
3.7
4.2
4.5
Marrocos
-6.6
12.2
-2.2
7.7
0.5
1.8
7.6
3.3
Nigria
2.4
6.5
3.2
0.3
1.5
5.3
8.2
21.2
Uganda
11.9
8.6
5.5
3.6
8.3
5.4
5.0
6.4
sia em desenvolvimento
9.0
8.3
6.5
4.2
6.5
6.9
5.8
6.9
China
10.5
9.6
8.8
7.8
7.6
8.4
8.3
9.1
ndia
7.6
7.5
5.0
5.9
6.9
5.4
3.9
4.6
Outros pases em desenvolvimento
7.6
6.7
3.8
-4.7
3.7
5.8
3.1
4.8
Filipinas
4.7
5.8
5.2
-0.6
3.4
6.0
1.8
4.4
Indonsia
8.2
8.0
4.5
-13.1
0.8
5.4
3.6
4.5
Malsia
9.8
10.0
7.3
-7.4
6.1
8.7
0.5
5.4
Tailndia
9.2
5.9
-1.4
-10.5
4.4
4.8
2.2
5.3
Hemisfrio Ocidental
1.8
3.6
5.2
2.3
0.3
4.1
0.7
0.4
Argentina
-2.8
5.5
8.1
3.9
-3.4
-0.8
-4.4
-10.9
Bolvia
4.7
4.4
5.0
5.0
0.4
2.5
1.7
2.5
Chile
10.8
7.4
6.6
3.2
-0.4
4.5
3.5
2.2
Colmbia
5.2
2.1
3.4
0.6
-4.2
2.9
1.5
1.9
Equador
1.7
2.4
4.1
2.1
-6.3
2.8
5.3
4.2
Mxico
-6.2
5.2
6.7
5.0
3.8
6.6
0.8
Paraguai
4.7
1.3
3.0
0.6
-1.5
-3.3
2.1
Peru
8.6
2.5
6.8
-0.7
0.9
3.0
0.2
5.0
Uruguai
-1.4
5.6
5.0
4.5
-2.8
-1.4
-3.4
-11.0
Venezuela
4.0
-0.2
6.4
0.3
-6.0
3.7
3.4
-8.9
Oriente Mdio/b
4.0
5.3
4.7
3.7
1.9
5.4
3.0
3.9
Europa Central e Oriental/c
5.5
4.0
4.2
2.9
0.5
4.9
0.4
4.2
Bulgria
-1.8
-8.0
-5.6
4.0
2.3
5.4
4.1
4.5
Hungria
1.5
1.3
4.6
4.9
4.2
5.2
4.1
4.4
Polnia
6.8
6.0
6.8
5.0
4.5
4.3
1.2
1.4
Repblica Tcheca
5.9
4.3
-0.8
-0.8
1.3
3.6
2.5
1.9
Romnia
8.0
3.9
-6.1
-4.8
-1.2
2.1
5.7
5.1
Turquia
6.9
6.9
7.5
3.1
-4.7
6.8
-5.7
6.2
Comunidade de Estados Independentes
-5.5
-3.5
1.1
-3.4
5.2
9.1
6.1
5.2
Rssia
-4.1
-3.6
1.4
-5.3
6.4
10.0
5.1
4.7
Ucrnia
-12.2
-10.0
12.0
-1.9
-0.2
5.9
9.2
5.2
Fonte: World Economic Outlook, FMI (vrios anos). Elaborao:Ipea/Dimac.
a
Antes de 1997, exclui as economias em transio (Europa Central e Oriental e Comunidade de Estados Independentes).
b
At 1996, inclui Turquia.
c
Antes de 1997, exclui Turquia.
d
Estimativa.

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

1.1
3.6
1.9
2.5
0.8
-0.3
3.1
1.1
5.0
4.3
3.0
3.1
1.4
2.8
6.7
5.3
3.1
3.3
5.2
6.1
10.3
4.7
8.1
10.0
6.9
5.8
4.9
4.8
5.8
7.1
2.1
8.8
2.7
4.0
3.9
3.6
1.4
3.8
4.0
2.2
-7.8
6.9
4.8
5.0
4.2
3.9
3.6
5.2
5.3
7.8
7.3
9.6

5.7
4.9
3.2
3.6
2.1
1.1
3.3
2.5
4.6
4.3
1.5
3.8
4.7
2.7
3.3
7.7
6.5
4.9
11.2
5.6
5.2
10.6
5.4
8.6
10.1
7.9
6.4
6.4
5.0
6.8
6.3
6.2
9.0
4.2
6.0
4.9
8.0
4.2
4.1
5.1
11.8
18.3
5.9
6.9
6.6
4.8
5.3
4.5
8.4
9.4
8.2
7.2
12.1

3.2
4.5
2.6
3.1
1.6
0.8
3.6
1.7
3.8
5.9
0.6
2.8
4.2
1.9
1.8
7.0
5.7
5.0
20.6
5.9
2.4
5.4
6.8
9.0
10.4
9.1
5.6
4.9
5.7
5.0
4.5
4.6
9.2
4.0
5.7
4.7
6.0
2.8
2.9
6.7
6.6
10.3
5.7
6.1
6.2
4.1
3.6
6.4
4.1
8.4
6.5
6.4
2.7

4.0
5.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.9
2.0
4.2
5.7
1.8
2.8
5.1
2.4
2.9
7.7
5.9
5.4
18.6
6.4
8.0
6.2
5.1
9.6
11.1
9.7
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.9
5.1
5.5
8.5
4.6
4.0
6.8
3.9
4.8
4.3
7.6
7.0
10.3
5.8
6.6
6.3
3.9
6.2
6.4
7.9
6.9
8.2
7.4
7.1

6.1
5.2
2.7
2.0
2.6
2.5
3.7
2.2
4.0
5.3
1.5
3.9
5.0
2.4
3.0
8.3
6.2
5.1
21.1
6.4
2.2
6.4
6.5
10.6
13.0
9.3
4.6
7.3
6.3
6.3
4.8
5.7
8.7
4.2
5.0
7.0
1.9
3.2
6.4
9.0
7.0
8.4
6.4
5.4
6.2
1.3
6.5
6.5
6.0
5.0
8.6
8.1
7.3

2008

5.1
3.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.2
0.8
3.5
1.8
-0.6
3.2
4.2
-0.3
0.7
6.3
5.2
3.8
16.0
6.9
6.5
9.1
7.1
7.8
9.0
7.3
1.9
5.8
6.1
5.0
5.3
4.6
7.0
4.7
4.5
4.6
2.9
1.8
4.0
7.0
6.0
5.8
6.1
3.2
5.5
1.8
4.9
4.2
5.4
4.0
6.0
6.2
5.6

2009

-0.2
-2.0
-1.6
-2.0
-2.5
-1.7
-1.9
3.3
3.0
-2.1
3.1
4.4
-2.6
-2.8
3.3
3.4
3.9
13.2
7.5
5.7
8.3
7.0
5.5
6.7
5.1
-2.4
5.8
6.3
5.3
5.6
1.1
4.5
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.1
-0.3
4.5
6.0
4.0
3.5
3.9
-0.4
4.8
2.5
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.3
-0.4
-0.7
4.2

VIII. SRIES HISTRICAS

Carta de Conjuntura | mar 2010

TABELA IX.36

Renda domiciliar per capita mdia por dcimo da populao

(em R$ de 2008)
1976
1977
1978
1979
1981
1982
Valor real da renda (R$)
1 dcimo
41.52
44.47
21.53
44.16
39.35
38.49
2 dcimo
77.05
83.88
67.01
83.17
79.82
77.94
3 dcimo
109.33
119.66
101.54
118.14
114.99
112.70
4 dcimo
144.98
160.18
139.73
157.85
154.26
153.76
5 dcimo
191.13
210.58
186.34
206.31
200.78
201.67
6 dcimo
251.78
275.59
246.25
267.25
260.66
263.23
7 dcimo
338.44
365.22
329.21
356.50
344.20
349.44
8 dcimo
475.14
507.00
455.33
495.76
474.79
485.96
9 dcimo
756.15
794.85
708.79
780.14
734.52
759.77
10 dcimo
2,486.96 2,735.47 2,058.09 2,265.35 2,080.87 2,158.90
Mdia
487.25
529.69
431.38
477.46
448.42
460.19
Percentual da renda total
1 dcimo
0.85
0.84
0.50
0.92
0.88
0.84
2 dcimo
1.58
1.58
1.55
1.74
1.78
1.69
3 dcimo
2.24
2.26
2.35
2.47
2.56
2.45
4 dcimo
2.98
3.02
3.24
3.31
3.44
3.34
5 dcimo
3.92
3.98
4.32
4.32
4.48
4.38
6 dcimo
5.17
5.20
5.71
5.60
5.81
5.72
7 dcimo
6.95
6.89
7.63
7.47
7.68
7.59
8 dcimo
9.75
9.57
10.56
10.38
10.59
10.56
9 dcimo
15.52
15.01
16.43
16.34
16.38
16.51
10 dcimo
51.04
51.64
47.71
47.45
46.40
46.91
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
Percentual da renda total
1% mais rico
17.08
18.47
13.64
13.61
12.67
13.02
10% mais ricos
51.04
51.64
47.71
47.45
46.40
46.91
50% mais pobres
11.58
11.68
11.96
12.77
13.14
12.70
20% mais pobres
2.43
2.42
2.05
2.67
2.66
2.53
Coeficientes
10 + / 50 4.41
4.42
3.99
3.72
3.53
3.69
1 + / 50 1.48
1.58
1.14
1.07
0.96
1.03
Coeficiente de Gini
0.623
0.625
0.604
0.593
0.584
0.591
Fonte: Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada, a partir dos microdados da Pnad/IBGE.

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1992

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

33.13
66.28
94.51
127.30
166.04
217.06
290.19
407.34
646.86
1,844.73
389.34

36.82
70.33
98.12
130.28
168.27
218.97
290.26
402.63
629.50
1,833.55
387.87

39.81
78.22
111.96
151.56
197.89
259.96
347.05
484.62
759.38
2,221.50
465.20

61.78
119.60
172.66
230.63
301.63
392.45
517.70
710.32
1,103.32
3,195.45
680.56

38.91
80.72
119.50
162.86
217.77
286.88
383.87
530.68
828.88
2,421.47
507.16

32.39
69.87
103.66
142.40
190.81
254.29
341.45
478.96
763.63
2,327.40
470.49

34.71
73.97
109.87
151.95
202.86
273.20
369.80
531.83
869.43
2,779.15
539.68

33.40
71.52
107.90
148.31
199.89
265.99
360.69
509.44
811.65
2,389.78
489.86

28.51
71.71
108.59
150.62
198.16
259.56
337.67
456.59
695.47
1,947.72
425.46

29.53
71.75
108.34
147.81
194.60
253.79
330.42
454.90
711.35
2,180.45
448.29

39.09
89.57
133.05
182.39
242.26
312.15
414.39
578.56
907.65
2,660.47
555.96

35.52
87.02
132.53
184.23
246.03
319.04
429.08
600.84
940.47
2,693.68
566.84

36.83
88.19
132.92
183.16
245.13
318.40
428.35
598.40
931.93
2,699.12
566.24

40.24
91.75
137.52
187.80
248.82
321.83
429.53
596.56
932.83
2,734.54
572.14

39.88
90.07
133.36
181.77
240.62
308.10
406.71
565.01
883.20
2,553.35
540.21

37.06
89.86
134.58
183.91
243.60
317.43
412.37
571.80
887.50
2,598.91
547.70

43.00
95.30
138.69
187.37
246.54
320.46
414.71
573.22
883.36
2,577.29
547.99

39.56
90.99
133.56
181.05
237.06
309.41
397.42
547.53
838.83
2,384.28
515.97

45.43
99.71
143.84
191.94
249.87
323.54
412.98
563.86
855.77
2,393.86
528.08

50.22
108.15
154.79
206.07
267.75
346.53
439.93
594.39
892.93
2,537.52
559.83

56.57
122.04
174.80
232.29
298.86
382.64
485.04
650.37
977.83
2,738.70
611.91

55.09
126.87
182.87
244.06
316.76
407.14
509.93
679.38
1,006.88
2,758.32
628.73

63.52
139.09
200.40
264.41
340.64
434.23
539.29
716.53
1,054.11
2,858.93
661.11

0.85
1.70
2.43
3.27
4.26
5.58
7.45
10.46
16.61
47.38
100

0.95
1.81
2.53
3.36
4.34
5.65
7.48
10.38
16.23
47.27
100

0.86
1.68
2.41
3.26
4.25
5.59
7.46
10.42
16.32
47.75
100

0.91
1.76
2.54
3.39
4.43
5.77
7.61
10.44
16.21
46.95
100

0.77
1.59
2.36
3.21
4.29
5.66
7.57
10.46
16.34
47.75
100

0.69
1.49
2.20
3.03
4.06
5.40
7.26
10.18
16.23
49.47
100

0.64
1.37
2.04
2.82
3.76
5.06
6.85
9.85
16.11
51.50
100

0.68
1.46
2.20
3.03
4.08
5.43
7.36
10.40
16.57
48.79
100

0.67
1.69
2.55
3.54
4.66
6.10
7.94
10.73
16.35
45.78
100

0.66
1.60
2.42
3.30
4.34
5.66
7.37
10.15
15.87
48.64
100

0.70
1.61
2.39
3.28
4.36
5.61
7.45
10.41
16.33
47.85
100

0.63
1.54
2.34
3.25
4.34
5.63
7.57
10.60
16.59
47.52
100

0.65
1.56
2.35
3.23
4.33
5.62
7.56
10.57
16.46
47.67
100

0.70
1.60
2.40
3.28
4.35
5.62
7.51
10.43
16.30
47.79
100

0.74
1.67
2.47
3.36
4.45
5.70
7.53
10.46
16.35
47.27
100

0.68
1.64
2.46
3.36
4.45
5.80
7.53
10.44
16.20
47.45
100

0.78
1.74
2.53
3.42
4.50
5.85
7.57
10.46
16.12
47.03
100

0.77
1.76
2.59
3.51
4.59
6.00
7.70
10.61
16.26
46.21
100

0.86
1.89
2.72
3.63
4.73
6.13
7.82
10.68
16.21
45.33
100

0.90
1.93
2.76
3.68
4.78
6.19
7.86
10.62
15.95
45.33
100

0.92
1.99
2.86
3.80
4.88
6.25
7.93
10.63
15.98
44.76
100

0.88
2.02
2.91
3.88
5.04
6.48
8.11
10.81
16.01
43.87
100

0.96
2.10
3.03
4.00
5.15
6.57
8.16
10.84
15.94
43.24
100

13.47
47.38
12.51
2.55

13.19
47.27
12.99
2.76

13.61
47.75
12.46
2.54

13.77
46.95
13.02
2.67

14.11
47.75
12.22
2.36

14.41
49.47
11.46
2.17

16.48
51.50
10.62
2.01

14.20
48.78
11.45
2.14

13.23
45.78
13.11
2.36

15.09
48.64
12.31
2.26

13.81
47.85
12.35
2.31

13.53
47.52
12.09
2.16

13.78
47.67
12.12
2.21

13.86
47.79
12.34
2.31

13.24
47.27
12.69
2.41

13.91
47.45
12.58
2.32

13.43
47.03
12.97
2.52

13.09
46.21
13.22
2.53

12.97
45.33
13.84
2.75

12.99
45.33
14.06
2.83

12.77
44.76
14.46
2.92

12.50
43.87
14.72
2.89

12.31
43.24
15.25
3.06

3.79
1.08
0.596

3.64
1.02
0.589

3.83
1.09
0.598

3.61
1.06
0.588

3.91
1.15
0.601

4.32
1.26
0.616

4.85
1.55
0.636

4.26
1.24
0.614

3.49
1.01
0.583

3.95
1.23
0.604

3.88
1.12
0.601

3.93
1.12
0.602

3.93
1.14
0.602

3.87
1.12
0.600

3.72
1.04
0.594

3.77
1.11
0.596

3.63
1.04
0.589

3.49
0.99
0.583

3.28
0.94
0.572

3.22
0.92
0.569

3.10
0.88
0.563

2.98
0.85
0.556

2.84
0.81
0.548