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Fish production
MATH SL PORTFOLIO FISH PRODUCTION Introduction The goal of this portfolio is to study the commercial fishing in a certain country in the sea environment as well as fish farms. The data from fish caught in the sea and fish from the fish farms. The data was obtained from the UN statistics Division Common Database. The main purpose of this task is to define suitable variables and come up with parameters/constraints of the data given and then using technology, plot the data points into a graph to develop and discuss a model for the different data points for both environments that relate to the trends of their data. I will be using different types of software that will help me to develop the models for each set of data points for both the environments; I will be using separate graphs for each type of environment. After I have deduced the functions and models, I will be using the functions and models to describe the current trends observed by each environment, followed with possible future trends. Defining variables and parameters/constraints: Before we can plot the data points into a graph; we must first define the variables from the data given, as well as discuss any of the parameters. There are two different variables given to us, the independent and dependent variables. The different variables in the given data are as follows: Independent: The independent variable would be the year. This variable is changed by increasing the year by one and taking note of the total mass of fish caught in that particular year. Dependent: The dependent variable for this set of data would be the amount of fish caught in each year. This variable is observed by noticing the mass of fish caught after every change of the year. The mass of fish caught can only change when the year has changed, which is why it is dependent on the years changing. The parameters or constraints in a particular set of data points are the factors in models that are constants related to the independent and dependent variables. They are also known as Constant variables in a set of data points. Possible parameters may be environmental factors such as the weather, economical issues and government rules, demand of the fish in local and international markets.
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Trends in the graph The graph above is for the total fish caught from the sea. Looking at the graph, we can notice that there are a number of trends. From the years 1980 to 1988, or from the 1st point to the 8th point on the x axis, there is a linear increase seen, in fact, we can see that the data on the graph reaches its highest point in 1988, at approximately 670 tonnes of fish caught. Furthermore, the number of fish caught reduces; resulting in a smaller total mass of fish caught and that is why the graph shows a downward slope. This continues until the year 1991, where the data points on the graph is at its lowest point, at approximately 357 tonnes of fish caught. After the year 1991, the graph shows another upward slope all the way to 1995, where the graph reaches its second highest point at approximately 634 tonnes of fish caught. After the year 1995 all the way to 2006, the graph displays a series of rises and falls showing a wave-like form with the points. Overall, the only decrease we can see in the graph is between the years 1998 and 1991.
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For a better visual picture of the sections, I plotted a graph for each interval.
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The graph above shows the interval 1980 x 1988 with a line of best fit so that you can easily see the linear function I explained earlier. The equation for this interval is in the form of: F(x)= ax+b. From this equation, we can see that there are 2 of the variables that are unknown, a and b. To find these variables, we take two points from the graph so we can do a simple substation and solve for a and b. The two points I will be taking from the graph are (2, 470.2) and (6, 575.4). Using these values I will substitute the points into the equation and solving for the values of a and b: To find a and b with the points (3, 503.4) and (6, 575.4): 2a+b=470.2 6a+b=575.4 We solve this be using simultaneous equations. I used my Graphics Display Calculator (GDC) to solve these equations with the PlySmlt2 programme (Press [2nd] [MATRX], press [MATRX]). Scroll to Edit. Press [1] to access matrix A. Input the dimensions [2] [ENTER] [3] [ENTER]. Input the matrix entries, pressing enter after each value. Press [2nd] [QUIT] [2nd] [MATRX]. Scroll to MATH. Press [ALPHA] [B] [2nd] [MATRX] [1] [)] [ENTER])
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The graph above is for the interval 1989 x 1998. The graph shows that with the line of best fit that the interval shows an upward and downward curve trend that is described as a polynomial function which I also explained earlier. The graph of this interval resembles the shape of a cubic function; therefore we can say that the best way to describe the graph in this would be a negative cubed function. The equation for this interval is in the form: ( ) In the above equation there are 4 variables that are unknown. They are a, b, c and d .The 4 points I chose to help me find the unknowns are (2, 450.5), (4, 356.9), (6, 548.8), and (9, 527.8). Now that we have our points we can substitute the values and solve to find the unknowns: 2a3+2b2+2c+d=450.5 4a3+4b2+4c+d=356.9 6a3+6b2+6c+d=548.8 9a3+9b2+9c+d=527.8
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The graph above shows the last interval 1999 x 2006. As we can see in this interval, the best fit line shows that the graph is again going showing a linear trend which we can use as a linear function. The equation for this interval is in the form of: F(x)= ax+b. Again we have 2 variables that are unknown. The points I chose to solve the equation are (4, 566.7) and (6,550.5). Using these points I substituted to solve: 4a+b=566.7 6a+b=550.5 I used my Graphics Display Calculator (GDC) to solve these equations with the PlySmlt2 programme (Press [2nd] [MATRX], press [MATRX]). Scroll to Edit. Press [1] to access matrix A. Input the dimensions [2] [ENTER] [3] [ENTER]. Input the matrix entries, pressing enter after each value. Press [2nd] [QUIT] [2nd] [MATRX]. Scroll to MATH. Press [ALPHA] [B] [2nd] [MATRX] [1] [)] [ENTER])
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Now that we have analysed the three intervals we can now come up with a model for the data points of the fish caught in the sea. The model for fish caught in the sea is: At: 1980 x 1988 the model is F(x) = 52.6x+365 1989 x 1998 the model is ( ) 1999 x 2006 the model is F(x) = -8.1x+599.1
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Trends found in graph: The graph above is for total fish caught from a fish farm. The graph shows that there is a great increase from the year 1980 to 2000 as the graph shows an upward sloping curve. From 2001 to 2002 there is a steep decrease that can be seen in the graph, this is then followed by another upward slope from 2003 onwards. The data on the graph for the fish caught in a fish farm are much lower than that of the data on the graph for the fish caught in the sea, because of this; the model that I previously found cannot be used for this data. Therefore we must come up with a new model.
Suggesting new model for Fish Farm: Like the model for the fish caught in the sea we can come up with a model by breaking the data points into sections or intervals The 3 intervals Ill be using for the fish farms are: 1980 x 1999 2000 x 2003 2004 x 2006
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The graph above shows that there is an exponential trend in the graph, so we can describe it as an exponential function.
Using GeoGebra 4 for Windows and the PlySmlt2 programme on the GDC, the new equation of the graph in this interval is: F(x) = 1.023(1.22)x
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The graph above shows the interval 2000 x 2003. The graph shows that the interval shows a linear trend and thats why we can describe it as a linear function.
Using GeoGebra 4 for Windows and the PlySmlt2 programme on the GDC, the new equation of the graph in this interval is: F(x) = 9x+254
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The graph above shows the data for the interval 2004 x 2006. The graph shows that the data points show a linear trend and this is why we can describe it as a linear function. Using GeoGebra 4 for Windows and the PlySmlt2 programme on the GDC, the new equation of the graph in this interval is: F(x) = 16x+300
Now that we have analysed the three intervals we can now come up with a model for the data points of the fish caught in fish farms. The model for fish caught in fish farms is: At: 1980 x 1999 the model is F(x) = 1.023(1.22)x 2000 x 2003 the model is F(x) = 9x+254 2004 x 2006 the model is F(x) = 16x+300
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