Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
29 December 2006
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The bid price was at a 74% premium to IPCLs last traded price. There were wide spread speculations on why Reliance bid was so higher than the other bidders. One newspaper had the explanation :
"Market circles are still struggling to come to terms with the surprise of Reliance bidding so aggressively for IPCL. The bid - more than twice the reserve price when the rivals were under it is certainly not characteristic of RIL, which has established a reputation as a conservative bidder, whether in privatisation deals or in telecom licenses. So what explains the exception? The RIL grapevine has it that after the consultants had submitted their valuation of IPCL, the two brothers decided to add on a premium to play safe. The patriarch then intervened to add on a further premium. This one, he apparently observed, was as a mark of gratitude to the Disinvestment Minister for not putting a spanner in the works despite a history of hostility between Shourie and RIL dating back to the eighties."
Prof. S. M. Fakih (smfakih@gmail.com) prepared this case as the basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate either effective or ineffective management.
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Polymers: Major polymers include the polyethylenes, poly vinyl chloride and polypropylene. RIL, IPCL, GAIL India, Haldia Petrochemicals are the major players.
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The production of petrochemicals began in India with the setting up of small plants in the late 1950s/early1960s using non-petroleum feedstock. LDPE was produced based on alcohol, PVC from calcium carbide, and SBR & PS from coal based benzene. In the late 1960s, National Organic Chemicals Ltd (NOCIL), then partly owned by Royal Dutch Sell Group (stake sold in 1993), commissioned a small integrated naphtha cracker with ethylene capacity of 70ktpa. It used ethylene for manufacture of EO, EG and PVC, and also supplied ethylene to its subsidiary for the manufacture of HDPE. In 1973 IPCL commissioned its first plant. Further developments are mentioned in the section IPCL Govt. foray into petrochemicals. In 1992-93, Reliance Industries Ltd commissioned a 160 ktpa HDPE/LLDPE swing plant at Hazira Gujarat. In 1996-97, Reliance expanded this plant and also set up PP facility as well as a750 ktpa naphtha based cracker at Hazira. The Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL), a State-owned company commissioned a 400-ktpaethylene gas based cracker at Auraiya, Uttar Pradesh, in early 1999. The downstream facilities include LLDPE/HDPE. The plant has the distinction of being the first cracker outside Western India, and is located away from the ports. Haldia Petrochemicals Ltd is the latest to put up naphtha cracker with a capacity of 300 ktpa at Haldia, West Bengal along with LLDPE, HDPE and PP facilities.
Capacities & Feedstock of crackers in India Plant Ethylene Capacity (000 MT) 130 400 300 Feedstock mix Supplier arrangement
Purchased from IOC and also imported Purchased from ONGC Natural gas purchased from GAIL and separated inhouse and return stream sold back. The gas is received from both adjoining Gandhar field as also Hazira Purchased from group refinery also located in Gujarat Separated from inhouse natural gas (Purchased in bulk from ONGC) Naphtha sourced from adjoining IOC Haldia refinery and imports in equal share
IPCL,Gandhar
RIL, Hazira
750 300
Naphtha
GAIL, Auraiya
HPL, Haldia
420
Naphtha
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Auraiya
Uses of Polymers Product LDPE/LLDP HDPE PP PVC PBR Uses Consumer packaging / film, extrusion wires, cable coatings Fertilizers / household packaging, woven sacks, cartons, crates, luggage, pipes BOPP film /cement packaging, monofilament yarn, ropes Water pipe, electrical conduit /wires, cables, sheets, Automotive tyres and tubes, conveyor belts, footwear
Prices of Polymers The prices of polymers produced in the country are determined, to great extent, by the landed costs of imported polymers. Indian prices have been aligned to landed costs of imported products. There are small discounts/premium to landed costs, depending upon demand/supply situation. However, in case of PVC the discount remained for 2 years from 1999-2001.
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The landed costs have been affected by 2 factors, apart from the international prices. One has been the import duty. Since 1991, the import duty on polymers, as most other products, has been coming down. This factor, on its own, would have adversely affected the viability of local manufacturers. However, depreciation of rupee against dollar the second factor affecting the landed costs has been of great help to local producers. Although polymer prices in the international markets are cyclical and have not shown any increase over their levels since 1980, the domestic prices have risen on account of the substantial depreciation of rupee. The current import duty of 30% is expected to go down till it settles at average South East Asian level of around 10%. While historically rupee has only moved downward, in the recent past, due to weakness of dollar, it has shown some appreciation. Cyclicality in Petrochemical Industry Like many basic commodities, petrochemicals also go through cyclicality High demand High margins & profits High fresh investments Capacity buildup
Demand increasing Price rising Profits increasing Fresh investment picking up Mergers & acquisition low
Up cycle
Down cycle
Supply increasing Margins & profits declining Fresh investment declining Mergers & acquisition moderate
Significant overcapacity Low margins Profits low to negative Fresh investment low Mergers & acquisition high
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Growth Rates (%) (1990 2001) Polymer LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP PVC India 1.6 34.9 14.8 18.9 10.1 World 1.3 9.4 5.7 8.3 3.7
The accompanying table shows polymer consumption growth rates (%) during 1990-2001. With the exception of LDPE, all other polymers have growth rates 2 4 times higher than that of the world. Since the absolute levels of consumption are so low in India, for many more years high growth will continue. Demand for polymers is also expected to increase in the coming years due to the concessions given by the government to infrastructure industries like telecom, power and transportation coupled with growth in consumer durables and packaging industries. The margins of the domestic players are likely to increase due to an increase in global as well as the domestic demand. The domestic elastomers industry is likely to continue in the same manner, although at a lesser rate, due to the slowdown in its major end use segment, the tyre industry. The per capita consumption in the country is very low when compared to global standards, despite the high growth rate witnessed by the petrochemical industry in the recent years. This is exemplified by the case of plastics, the per capita consumption of which was only 3.8 kilograms in the country in the year 2001-2002 when compared to the global average of 19.7 kilograms. The low consumption pattern indicates huge demand growth potential for the country.
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Product
Capacity (000 TPA) RIL IPCL 380 160 1000 270 360 100 190 205 170 45
Combined
Total India
Combined as % of Total
400
With such market domination, it would be tempting for RIL IPCL to improve their price realization. However, since all the products are commodities, to what extent this will be possible is a moot point.
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Feedstock
On the feedstock side, there may be few synergies. RIL has a naphtha-based cracker, while IPCLs Nagothane and Gandhar crackers are gas-based feedstock comes from ONGC. IPCLs Baroda cracker, which is naphtha-based, has a feedstock linkage with IOCs Koyali refinery next door. RIL will be able to displace IOC for naphtha supply it exports naphtha from Jamnagar, and selling domestically will give it a 10% higher realisation. That said, domestic transportation costs are likely to be a key factor that will weigh against this switch. RIL also has some scope to rationalise product logistics its Patalganga complex (near Mumbai) can source its MEG requirements from IPCLs Nagothane unit, instead of moving it from its Hazira unit.
Cost savings
IPCL has further scope for cost reductions in two key areas: 1) Manpower costs Manpower costs are a key area of potential savings. IPCL has 13,740 employees, with a large proportion of the employees at its headquarters in Baroda (about 8,000). On a per-ton basis, analysts believe IPCLs manpower cost is 210% higher than of RILs. Manpower cost savings could generate substantial savings. To achieve them, upfront payment for employee separation scheme of the order of Rs. 1.5 million per employee will be necessary. Analyst believe that 50% cut in the staff is possible. RIL has a track record of being highly cost conscious. But with the extra sensitivities involved with the disinvestment process, it remains to be seen how quickly manpower rationalisation can progress. 2) Overheads IPCLs overheads per ton of product at Rs1, 532/ton of production are 2.5x those of RIL. Within this cost pool, over 35% goes towards repairs and maintenance a reflection on the age of IPCLs plants. Cutting repairs & maintenance overheads would involve refurbishment of existing operations, which would require upfront capital investments.
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The assumptions for the explicit horizon period, underlying the projected income statements, were based on the past performance of IPCL. The gross sales are expected to grow at 8% p.a. Other income is expected to be 3% of gross sales. Raw materials will be 30.28% of gross sales, stores, chemicals & packing materials 4.54%, other manufacturing expenses 19.09%, employee costs 7.23%, establishment expense 2.79% and selling & distribution expenses 3.21%. Depreciation amount is worked out on the basis of average of past depreciation over the average of past fixed assets. It is kept constant over the years. Capital expenditure is considered at the same level as the depreciation. Since current effective tax rate is 10% of profit before tax, this is assumed to continue. However, for the cash flows for the continuity value, corporate tax rate is calculated at 35% - the current tax rate. Net working capital is assumed at 30% of gross sales. The cash flows have been discounted at 10%, since the cost of capital of both IPCL and Reliance is around 10% as shown in Exhibit 8 The present value of IPCL turns out to be Rs. 277/share higher than what Reliance paid for IPCL. This value does not take into account possibilities of synergies between Reliance and IPCL Dr. Hikaf was convinced that Reliance paid a reasonable price. Are you convinced?
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52751 14656 38095 5407 43503 0 0 43503 255 0 4883 3822 9715 10924 0 29345 5680 6270 11950 17395 709 61862
55701 17028 38673 14520 53193 0 0 53193 297 0 6700 4633 8364 15104 0 34801 8836 6485 15321 19480 689 73658
60548 19747 40801 20506 61307 0 0 61307 697 0 6614 3850 3958 13087 0 27509 7652 5713 13364 14145 673 76821
89095 31262 57833 850 58683 4989 63672 1121 0 6998 3210 2340 4842 0 17389 9370 987 10358 7032 348 72173
64286 741 0 7780 4286 3874 11238 0 27178 8991 6144 15135 12044 716 77787
61443 1091 0 8726 3631 2889 10075 0 25321 6996 6718 13715 11607 568 74709
Market Price
138.25
69.55
110.5
60.7
54.05
83.5
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(Rs.millions) 1996-97 INCOME Gross Sales Less: Excise duty Net Sales Other income Change in stocks Total EXPENDITURE Raw Materials Consumed Purchase for Resale Stores,chemicals & packing materials Other manufacturing expenses Employees costs Establishment expenses Selling and distribution expenses Deferred revenue expense written off Interest Depreciation Total Less : Transfer to Capital Expenditure Total Profit before prior period items & taxation Prior Period Items Profit before Tax Provision for Income-Tax Provision for Deferred Tax Profit after Tax AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR APPROPRIATION Dividends Balance Carried to Balance Sheet 8130 5 1816 5505 2329 854 968 23 2994 1522 24147 1564 22583 5920 11 5931 829 0 5101 18295 1092 15828 10415 12 2082 7847 2725 1268 1163 118 4143 2374 32147 2370 29777 2612 111 2723 287 0 2436 18297 1092 16181 10447 17 2069 7708 3090 1950 1480 146 5156 2704 34765 3058 31707 398 -69 329 35 0 294 16741 248 15282 16052 266 2388 8490 3178 959 1686 284 5146 3190 41637 2072 39565 1992 -21 1971 83 0 1888 18528 606 15630 18899 417 2180 11669 4392 1342 1738 322 4909 4149 50016 1 50015 2740 -19 2721 231 0 2490 18669 821 16998 18682 54 1846 10858 4015 1237 1713 380 3737 4244 46766 2 46765 699 408 1107 -56 88 1075 19225 496 18079 34296 6561 27735 778 -10 28502 36916 7208 29708 1120 1561 32389 38498 7522 30976 795 334 32105 49198 9324 39874 1121 562 41557 58625 8307 50318 1677 760 52756 55324 7574 47750 1642 -1928 47464 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02
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1999
222,619 7,684
2000
269,151 10,900
2001
296,635 12,403
2002
287,315 10,640
2003
267,148 10,132
91,723 2,743
144,346 5,049
190,960 7,049
219,059 7,490
238,268 7,792
208,868 5,148
180,434 6,227
221,119 8,141
228,820 7,526
202,104 7,789
164,250 4,645
170,102 5,724
182,666 6,715
193,336 6,645
183,993 7,122
39,368 1,530
43,041 1,769
35,307 1,837
45,316 2,116
53,435 2,508
17,609 1,067
16,353 932
15,084 1,117
17,866 1,098
18,981 1,374
57,220 1,159
84,999 2,452
154,691 4,047
178,273 3,655
187,842 5,085
52,540 2,178
52,834 2,374
56,130 2,738
54,029 2,330
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Exhibit 4
INCOME Gross Sales Less: Excise duty (VAT) Net Sales Other income Total EXPENDITURE Raw Materials Consumed Purchase for Resale Stores, chemicals & packing materials Other manufacturing expenses Employees costs Establishment expenses Selling and distribution expenses Deferred revenue expense written off Depreciation Profit before Tax Provision for Income-Tax Provision for Deferred Tax Profit after Tax Free Cash Flow Capital expenditure Net Working Capital (NWC) Change in NWC Cash Flow Cost of capital Continuity Value PV of Firm Value of Debt PV of Equity Number of Shares Share Price
(Rs.millions)
2007-08
87792 12291 75501 2295 77796 26584 248 3983 16756 6348 2449 2814 410 3754 14450 1379 13071 16825 3754 26288 1947 11124
2003-04
64530 9034 55496 1687 57183 19540 182 2928 12316 4666 1800 2069 301 3754 9626 918 8708 12462 3754 19322 1431 7276
2004-05
69692 9757 59935 1822 61757 21104 197 3162 13301 5039 1944 2234 325 3754 10697 1021 9676 13430 3754 20868 1546 8130
2005-06
75268 10537 64730 1968 66698 22792 213 3415 14365 5442 2099 2413 351 3754 11853 1131 10722 14476 3754 22537 1669 9052
2006-07
81289 11380 69909 2125 72034 24615 230 3688 15515 5878 2267 2606 379 3754 13101 1250 11851 15605 3754 24340 1803 10048
2008-09
94816 13274 81541 2479 84020 28711 268 4302 18096 6856 2644 3040 443 3754 15906 1518 14388 18143 3754 28391 2103 12285
Continuity Value
94816 13274 81541 2479 84020 28711 268 4302 18096 6856 2644 3040 443 3754 15906 5567 10339 14093 3754 28391 2935 7404
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31.3.1997 SOURCES OF FUNDS Shareholders' Funds Share Capital(FV=Rs 10) Reserves and surplus Shareholders Funds Loan Funds Secured loans Unsecured loans Loan Funds Leased assets liabilities Net Deferred tax Liabilities Total APPLICATION OF FUNDS Fixed Assets Gross block Less : Depreciation Net block Capital work-in-progress Fixed Assets-Total Assets taken on lease Capital work-in-progress Total Investments Interest Acc. On Investments Inventories Sundry debtors Cash and bank balances Loans and advances Other Current Assets Current Assets-Total Less: Curr.Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets (4) Miscellaneous Exp Total 4585 80125 84710
31.3.1998
31.3.1999
31.3.2000
31.3.2001
109559 34912 74647 37086 111733 0 111733 44557 603 10854 6014 8638 12963 0 39072 30875 3522 34397 4675 0 160965
178483 49444 129039 20694 149733 0 149733 42823 211 13440 6427 21335 9911 0 51324 33820 4760 38580 12744 0 205300
186503 66919 119584 34378 153962 0 153962 42946 256 14086 4571 48976 16763 0 84652 35919 5444 41363 43289 0 240197
243309 92141 151168 3314 154482 0 154482 60666 475 18232 8425 10816 40593 0 78541 36000 2658 38658 39883 255031
140268 67261 851 22998 11342 1006 55027 91225 182449 41108 8634 49742 41483 249012
49741 27225 17607 95653 4281 194507 64723 12105 76828 117678 629 488646
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Exhibit 6
1996-97 INCOME Gross Sales Less: Excise duty Net Sales Other income Change in stocks Total EXPENDITURE Raw Materials Consumed Purchase for Resale Stores,chemicals & packing materials Other manufacturing expenses Employees costs Establishment expenses Selling and distribution expenses Deferred revenue expense written off Interest Depreciation Inter -Divisional Transfers Less : Transfer to Capital Expenditure Total Profit before prior period items & taxation Prior Period Items Profit before Tax Provision for Income-Tax Provision for Deferred Tax Profit after Tax AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR APPROPRIATION Dividends Balance Carried to Balance Sheet 87303 12839 74464 2896 -953 76407 19322 152 3576 5273 2381 2020 1319 0 1700 4101 22887 0 62731 13676 0 13676 450 0 13226 14100 2992 6628
1997-98 134038 18931 115107 3356 3683 122146 36464 142 6396 5249 3099 2732 2352 0 5036 6673 36846 0 104989 17157 0 17157 630 0 16527 22658 3904 10479
1998-99 145533 19295 126238 6076 -1524 130790 32109 1901 8266 4769 3583 4792 2904 0 7288 8550 39291 0 113453 17337 0 17337 300 0 17037 27516 3734.5 11327
1999-00
2000-01 280082 25789 254293 3826 3179 261298 94301 29356 8061 6327 4411 5766 7618 12160 15651 49841 233492 27806 0 27806 1350 0 26456 43951 4478 21606
203014
24515 178499 6873 3437 188809 66424 4860 0 12467 3748 5536 3764
0
10080 12784 44542 0 164205 24604 0 24604 570 0 24034
37980
3847
17395
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Months
April 1997 May 1997 June 1997 July 1997 August 1997 September 1997 October 1997 November 1997 December 1997 January 1998 February 1998 March 1998 April 1998 May 1998 June 1998 July 1998 August 1998 September 1998 October 1998 November 1998 December 1998 January 1999 February 1999 March 1999 April 1999 May 1999 June 1999 July 1999 August 1999 September 1999 October 1999 November 1999 December 1999
Stock price(Rs)
142 130 132 141 130 117 110 86 68 97 57 65 75 76 59 49 46 54 58 61 54 79 77 109 97 100 106 113 125 133 125 114 116
Months
January 2000 February 2000 March 2000 April 2000 May 2000 June 2000 July 2000 August 2000 September 2000 October 2000 November 2000 December 2000 January 2001 February 2001 March 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 July 2001 August 2001 September 2001 October 2001 November 2001 December 2001 January 2002 February 2002 March 2002
Stock price(Rs)
108 93 69 55 51 60 59 61 60 52 56 63 70 75 63 53 57 56 48 44 39 40 48 55 58 73 84
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Cost of Capital
RIL Debt (Rs million) Interest Payment (Rs million) Cost of Debt Weightage of Debt Beta Risk-free Interest Rate Equity Risk Premium Cost of Equity Market Price of Share (Rs) Number of Shares (million) Market Capitalization (Rs million) Weightage of Equity Enterprise Value (Rs million) WACC 189285 18251 6.27% 31.08% 0.66 7.50% 8.50% 13.11% 300.7 1396 419777 68.92% 609062 10.98% IPCL 37163 3737 6.54% 64.12% 0.86 7.50% 8.50% 14.81% 83.5 249.05 20796 35.88% 57959 9.50%
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