Asian Studies 371 Jennifer Janisch Clifford

One-fifth the Worlds population lives in China. Worlds most populous nation, but will soon be surpassed by India. China is extremely important to global sustainable development. Issues:
Pollution Increased inequality

 2010

Census Chinas Population: 1.34 billion Increased by 73.9 million in ten years 5.8% growth from 2000

 World Population now 7 billion & increasing 1.5% per year. Net gain of 230,000 people every day At this rate World population could double within 35 years.

98% of population growth between 1998 & 2025 is expected to take place in the LDCs. UN projects 9.2 billion by 2050 High projection = 10.5 billion Low projection = 8 billion

Already showing signs that we have exceeded the Carrying Capacity of the Earth Water Stress

Resource Shortages

One billion people lack access to clean water supply Within 25 years 3 billion people will be living with water stress
General Resource Shortages Steel, aluminum, wood, concrete, oil, food All driving up prices

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) = # of live births per woman Most LDCs have TFR > 5 Highest TFRs are concentrated in the poorest LDCs Stationary population: Growth rate = 0

China: Annual growth = 0.6% India: Annual growth + 1.7% At this rate Indias population could reach 2.2 billion within 40 years. U.S. Population is also growing too fast. U.S. population on track to double within 70 years.

A child born in the U.S. or Canada consumes 5 Xs the resources that a child from an LDC does. The affluent in the LDCs are exceeding those consumption rates. The 25% of the Worlds population living in the industrialized countries consume > 70% of the Worlds resources.

Population growth is a function of :

Educational level of women (-) Literacy rates of women (-) Economic opportunities for women (-) Access to family planning (-) Infant mortality rates (+) Cultural preferences for boys (+) Youth effect (+) Poverty (+)

Individual families/ couples determine family size by comparing private marginal benefits with private marginal costs. Maximize personal welfare by equating MBs with MCs Most benefits are internal. Many costs are external or shared by society.

Most empirical econometric studies show slow population growth to be positively correlated with economic growth.

) Higher ratio of K per worker: increases productivity per worker. 2) Youth effect (large % of the population ,15 years) means large % is out of the labor force. 3) Female availability effect: high # of children females are not available to join the labor force. 4) With Youth Effect savings rate is lower; supply of loanable funds for investment in capital is lower. Decrease in K leads to lower productivity.

1) Pressure on natural resources Decreases resources/person Access to land Agricultural productivity Grainland per capita 2) Increasing conflict Sudan Rwanda 3) Increased demand for firewood increases deforestation, decreases productivity of farmland, reduces food supply, leads to conflict over resources. 4) Increases Income Inequality

UN study: every $1 spent in family planning paid off in savings of $2 -$6 Population control would move us closer to Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

High Population growth & poverty are positively correlated. Lift Worlds Poor out of poverty. Focus on Poverty elimination & alleviation. Education for women. Economic opportunities for women. Increase Literacy Decrease Infant Mortality Rates Health care, health education Eliminate cultural preferences for male babies through education & economic incentives. Improve access to family planning. Remove perverse incentives in DCs & LDCs.

Control Population Growth Stabilize world population at about 7.8 billion by 2050. Reduce Consumption (Over-consumption by the affluent). Use our resources more efficiently.

High population has been a concern for China since 600 C.E. 1800s draconian population control policies 1956 Population control education 1979 One-Child Policy begun

One-child policy begun in 1979 by Deng Xiaoping. Urban couples: 1 child Rural couples: 2 children Minorities: Not subject to the law One child families are rewarded with better child care, education, housing assignments.

TFR fell to 1.4 Prevented population increase of 300 -400 million people. Pew Center survey showed that 76% of Chinese people support the 1-child policy.

Birth rates

118 M to 100 F (Normally: 105 M to 100F) Shortage of marriageable women will cause social unrest (projected 30 million more men than women in 2020) No penalty for multiple births on first pregnancy: multiple births per year doubled by 2006.

Poverty

Measures

More than 1.2 billion people live on < $1/day at purchasing power parity in the developing world. More than 2.8 billion live on < $2/day. A billion people worldwide are illiterate. Close to half of the worlds population is suffering in poverty with the consequent health problems and environmental degradation.

Economic Growth is a Necessary but not Sufficient Condition to eliminate poverty. Economic Growth must be accompanied by more equitable distribution of income.

Economic growth has lifted millions of Chinese out of poverty. When Deng Xiaoping began market reforms in 1981 the estimated poverty rate was 64%, dropped to 15% in 2005 lifting 600 million people out of poverty. However, income inequality has risen.

Widening gap between urban and rural per capita incomes. Higher returns to education on income leading to a widening gap.

Causes Economic Inefficiency Undermines Social Stability Unfair/Undesirable in a just society

Cut poverty in half by 2015 Education Goals Reduce Infant Mortality Reduce Maternal Mortality Halt spread of AIDS Sustainable Development Halt & reverse environmental degradation Access to Safe Drinking Water Deal with Debt Problems

Personal or Size Distribution of Income Functional or Distributive Factor Share of Income

Commonly used measure Calculated by dividing the percentage of total income received by the top 20% by the percentage received by the bottom 40% Gives an inequality ratio The higher the ratio, the worse the distribution of income.

Plots the cumulative % of population on the horizontal axis against the cumulative % of income on the vertical axis. Straight diagonal line would be perfectly equal distribution of income.

The ratio of the area between the diagonal line of equality & the actual Lorenz Curve.

This measure looks at the share of income received by each of the factors of production land, labor, & capital.

Defined as the number of people who are unable to command sufficient resources to satisfy basic needs. Measured by Headcount (H) H as a % of total population gives the Headcount Index

Not sufficient to know just the # of people below the poverty line but how far below they are. For this calculate the Total Poverty Gap (TPG). TPG tells the total amount of income needed to raise everyone to that line.

AIS = TPG/H

Measures poverty in terms of 3 key deprivations: Life expectancy Basic Education Access to health services & safe water supply.

Household property income distribution

45% 54% 1%
top 10% last 10% the rest