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360 Degree Vision of the Global Electric
Vehicle Industry
Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology Roadmap and Forecasts Business Model Analysis of Key Industry Stakeholders EV Incentive Plans
Integrators Utilities
Key Responsibility: Development of Charging Infrastructure Supplies infrastructure to distribute their energy Lower fuel dependency by expanding the use of renewable energy sources
OEMs
Infrastructure supplier
Government
System/Battery Manufacturers
Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap (Global), 2008-2015 Charging Times to Drop to <30 Minutes by 2015
Electric Vehicle Market: Technology and Product Roadmap for Electric Vehicles (Global), 2005-2015
Driving Distance/charge-up to 55 Miles Charge Time 6 to 8 hrs Battery Capacity up to 16kWh Motor Power- Up to 70 kW Up to 125 Miles < 1 hour Up to 50 kWh 70 kW 250 kW 190 + Miles < 15 minutes 75 kWh +
Infrastructu re
performance
Slow charging - onboard Fast charging mostly off board Battery Swapping
Market for Extended-Range Electric Vehicles: Technology Roadmap for Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ELECTRIC RANGE BATTERY CAPACITY MOTOR POWER CHARGING TIME 2005
Up to 40 miles 7kWh 15kWh 50kW 70kW 2 6 hrs Up to 100 miles 16kWh 25kWh 70kW 140kW 15 mins 2 hrs
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2010
2015
2020
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Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap (Global), 2008-2015 Iron Phosphate and Manganese Based Li-ion Preferred
Electric Vehicle Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Vehicles (Global), 2005-2015, Cars and Commercial Vehicles
Lead acid Nickel Metal Hydride Sodium Nickel Chloride
Batteries
Phosphate based Manganese based Titanate based Silica based Zinc Air Lithium Ion
Electric Motors
Permanent Magnet Asynchronous Switched Reluctance In wheel motors Motor Power- Up to 70 kW 70 kW 250 kW
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Frost & Sullivan estimates the Global EV market to reach ~6.2Mn sales/yr by 2020;
Represents ~5% of total Global car sales
Electric Vehicle Market: Scenario Analysis (World), 2010-2020
Tier 2 OEMs and Early Entrants such as Nissan, PSA, Mitsubishi etc. Followers VW Group, Daimler, BMW etc join the bandwagon and push EV sales up 1st Major Pivot Point: Strict Regulations forcing major ramp-up of EVs
CAGR=71% (11-20)
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
CAGR=64% (11-20)
CAGR=63% (11-20)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
OptimisticScenario
Scenario Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative 2009 5,900 5,900 5,900 2010 17,400 17,400 17,400 2011 91,300 76,100 45,300 2012 347,200 220,800 94,200
Frost&SullivanScenario
2013 816,200 492,700 178,700 2014 1,373,200 852,600 318,300 2015 2,094,900 1,292,200 451,000
ConservativeSceanrio
2016 2,865,200 1,724,000 602,300 2017 3,531,500 2,214,400 796,700 2018 5,228,000 3,485,400 1,161,800 2019 8,412,700 4,807,200 2,403,600 2020 11,223,000 6,235,000 3,741,000
24 Quadricycles in the Market Today and Expected to be Over 35 Models by 2013; Another 19 Sub-A Vehicles Will Launch in Next Three years
Microcar Market: Planned Microcar Product Offerings (Europe), 2010
Existing (2010) ? Quadricycle
Ambra Ligier Optimax Ligier BE Two Ligier Nova Ligier Ixo Ligier M.Go Microcar Sonique Grecav ZENN MyCar 4-seat Microcar Newteon
Future (2011-2013) ?
MyCar Coupe Newteon Blowcar Dario Di Camillo NT3 Piaggio
?
Microcar Aixam Crossline Aixam Scouty Aixam Roadline Aixam Barooder Chatenet Speedino Chatenet CH26 Chatenet E2 Plus EVE SC4P Simplicity Queenstar GEF Motor Zero Tazarri E--City Pole Vehicule du Futur
MICROCAR
XTOO Ligier
F-City Mega City EKE Berlina Friendly Estrima Aixam Heuliez Pole Vehicule Newteon Grecav du Futur
YDEA Micro-Vett
Land Glider 4 Seater 2 Seater M.Go Electric Ixo Electric Infiniti Little Electric Little Electric Microcar Ligier Twizy Z.E. Renault
NXR REVA
NXG REVA
Nano EV TATA
BB1 PSA
Townpod Nissan
Sub-A
POP Kia
City Lotus
MicroTwingo Renault
EV-N Honda
Neoma Lumeneo
T27 Urban Eclectic 2 Commuter Gordon City Venturi Rinspeed Murray FAM Auto
Mio Fiat
Panda Fiat
500 Fiat
Agila Opel
Ka Ford
107 PSA
C1 PSA
City Th!nk
C-Zero PSA
i0n PSA
i-MiEV Mitsubishi
Smart ED Daimler
iQ based Toyota
500 EV Fiat
E-up! VW
Electric
16 Base Models will be introduced within the 25,000 price and 3,500 mm length range in the European Market between 2010 and 2017
Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Drive Range and Price Segmentation (Europe), 2010-2017
i0n PSA
Survolt PSA
C-Zero PSA
35
i-MiEV Mitsubishi
Ampere Smith
MegaCity BMW
Leaf Nissan
E6 BYD
25
NXG REVA
WILL Heuliez
Berlingo Electric Partner PSA` Electric PSA Zoe Z.E. Renault Ox Th!nk
Golf blue-e-motion VW
BB1 PSA
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iQ based Toyota
Friendly Heuliez
G-Wiz REVA Nano EV TATA Mega Van Aixam-MEGA ACE Electric TATA Minivan Shuttle ZAP
5 2,000
2,500
3,000
4,000
4,500
5,000
Total Market for Electric LCV (Europe): 5% of European LCV Sales Could be Electric by 2015 Under F&S Scenerio
Total Electric LCV Market: Production Forecast (Europe), 2009-2015
250 Conservative Frost & Sullivan Optimistic
200
150
100
50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CAGR Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source:2015 & Sullivan Frost 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (As %) 154% 126% 88%
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Note: This forecast is only for vehicles with a total GVW of 3.5 tonnes. Car derived vans are also included
List of Major Electric Light Commercial Vehicles: European electric-LCV Market mostly consists of conversions today. Modec is the only purpose built EV.
Segment Manufacturer Modec Smith Electric (Edison model based on Ford Transit) Allied ZEV (based on Peugeot Boxer) PVI Renault (based on Maxity model) Daimler (based on Sprinter Electric) Renault (based on Kangoo) Micro vett (based on Fiat, Ducato) Venturi Motors (based on Citroen Berlingo) Iveco (based on Daily model) Nissan (based on NV 200) Volkswagen LCV Eco City Vehicles Mercedes Benz Vito taxi Range Miles 100 100 120 60 100* 60* 155* 60 60 60* 60* Payloa d (kg) 2000 1800 895 1500* 1500* 1500* 1670 500 2000* 850* 1500* Small (length 3.75m - 4.25m ) Large (> 5m length) Large Plus (> 5.5m length) Country UK UK UK France Germany France Italy France Italy Europe Germany UK Market Status
2010 expected 2012 expected 2012 expected
2012 expected 2012 expected 2012 expected
London Taxi
Note: Where ever applicable payloads are taken from medium wheelbase panel van / box van body style *Estimated Figures Available in market currently
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Electric Commercial Vehicles will be concentrated more towards depot based delivery vehicles with fixed payload and work schedule cycle.
Electric Commercial Vehicles Market: Overview of suitability (Europe 2010)
This implies immediate opportunity and target for electric vehicles Medium (1% ~ 4 % of total CV market @ 2015)
Range
This signifies an expanding opportunity gained by early adopters experience and challenges can be overcome but require substantial investment Low (<1% of total CV market @ 2015)
This represents the size of opportunity and electrification will need to overcome considerable technical and market challenges HCV
LCV
MCV
Type of Commercial Vehicle Urban Usage lies in an urban environment with frequent stop and go combined with fixed load Intra-Urban Usage lies in an urban and intraurban distribution. May have stop and go routes Highway Usage mostly lies in highway routes long haulage with heavy loads
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Mobility Integrators (MI) to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters inter-modality and multi-modality travel split
Telecom Operators Transport Operators
Rail Bus
The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple
Carsharing
Mobility Integrator
Short Distance Urban Mobility
Bikes
Payment Engine
MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer mobility-based applications (apps) on smart phones.
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Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
Charging Stations Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity Telematics & other value added services
Services
Battery Leasing Model Refurbishing Recycling Battery 2nd life Battery Swapping Extend to other E-mobility solutions
Data Aggregator ( working with other partners) Battery management services Advanced booking of charging stations
Charge Payment Program / Subscription based services Revenues from value added services Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging
Load Management
investment in renewable energy such as wind farms and gain carbon credits Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy
Battery Integration
Breakdown of Energy Packages - Innovation Lies in Offsetting High Initial EV Cost by Clubbing Services with Energy into A Subscription Package
Subs. per Rebates month Price of Car Battery Cost Public Battery Insurance Charging Swapping Maint. Car Battery Recovery Recovery Ass.
ENERGY PACKAGE 1
~$225 / month 40% Battery Recovery
$225
40%
(65%) (60%)
ENERGY PACKAGE 2
$500 / month 40% Battery Recovery
$500
40%
(70%) (75%)
ENERGY PACKAGE 3
~$1100 / month 60% subsidy 0% Battery Recovery
$1100
$4,500
Subject to change State wise
PART
(80%) (100%)
ENERGY PACKAGE 4
~$2,250 / month 100% subsidy 0% Battery Recovery
$2250
$4,500
Subject to change State wise
(100%)
(100%)
Note : Values that have been dealt here are an European perspective converted into US$ at todays exchange rate.
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Utilities Business Model Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside Selling Energy
Source Of Revenue Generation 1. Revenues from Selling Electricity 2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations 3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations 4. Revenues from Diagnostics 5. Revenues from Garage Referrals 6. Revenues from Music Download 7. Revenues from Others
CAGR
CAGR = 242% (Over 5 years) CAGR = 153% (Over 5 years) CAGR = 158% (Over 5 years) CAGR = 153% (Revenue Opportunity to start from 3rd year) CAGR = 242% (Over 5 years) CAGR = 127% (Revenue Opportunity to start from 3rd year) CAGR = 161% (Over 5 years)
Calculated over 5 years 390Mn - 400Mn 650Mn - 700Mn 490Mn - 500Mn 600K - 625K 25K - 27K 150K - 165K 340Mn - 345Mn
48Mn - 50Mn
640Mn - 650Mn
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EV Incentive Plans
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Majority of all EV related activites in EU center around the three pillars of consumer incentives, legislations and pilot projects
Electricity Batteries
All initial efforts revolving around consumer purchase incentives, legislation and demo projects will dictate Consumer reaction and shift towards electric powertrain technology
Sta
E-Mobility Vehicles
ke
Ho ld e
rs`
LEGISLATIONS
Renewable Energy Directive (RED) Revised Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) EU Emission Trading System (TDS) CO2 Regulation
Pilot Projects
EV Trial Programs Initial feedback and test results Actual Launch and introduction of EV Fleets Movement from Gen 1
Legislations
Pilot Projects
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EU Electric Vehicle Stimulus: UK, France, Spain and Italy intend to proactively stimulate demand for EVs by offering significant cost discounts to consumers.
Europe Electric Vehicle Market: Comparative Analysis of Incentives and Legislations Across Countries (Europe), 2008 Country
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden UK Norway
EV Cash Discount
/$ Incentive
1,000
(Salzburg and Styria)
Type of Vehicle
500 discount on Alternate Fuel Cars 15%/3,280 rebate if CO2 <105 g/km
Total Budget
Salzburg 100 cars Lower Austria 1000 cars
Start
Until Dec 09
Govt. EV Plans
To subsidize EV fleet (VLOTTE)
Budget
10m
3,280 -
< 75 million
To subsidize fleet lease of EVs
35m
5,000
(or 20% of retail price)
140 million
400m
3,500 4,000 800
(Income tax benefit)
2010
(continuing for 5 yrs)
EVs in Aragon, Asturias, Baleares, Madrid, Navarra, Valencia, Castilla la Mancha, Murcia EVs needing less than 37 kwh/100km power Full electric / Plug-in Hybrid
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008.Source: Frost & Sullivan
CEN/CENELEC
nda ma te
Standardisation bodies
EU Commission
Right of initiative for legislative proposals Develops its strategic and operative work programme Commissions studies Drafts reports & communications
EU Presidency
= Member States
Council
EU Parliament
Changes / adopts legislative proposals Can table own-initiative reports Commission has to act Sets the political agenda Various committees, in particular TRAN and ITRE Specialised MEPs Austria: Hella Ranner, Paul Rbig, Hannes Swoboda
Sets the broad political agenda during its term (6 months): currently Spain, next: Belgium, Hungary, Poland, Denmark, Cyprus Chairs meetings Acts as compromise broker
Changes / adopts legislative proposals Establishes political direction in Council meetings Formulates Council conclusions in particular Competitiveness Council
driven by seeking to speed up the process to create a "fully interoperable pan-European charging system"
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Innovative business opportunities arise from partnership formed between diverse industries in order to expand infrastructure in time for the EV boom
*Industries: Identified and selected based on definition existing in equity trade markets **Spending large amounts of money in own R&D, to find many of the projects in dead-ends, hoping for some to turn out as successful blockbuster generating high returns. The model is commonly used in industries where development costs, risks and potential rewards are high.
Utilities Power Generation Co. Partnership with Renewable Energy Providers Energy Storage Government Carbon Trading Tax Incentives Technology Smart Card Telematics Mobile Service Providers
EV
Industrial Material Mining Buildings, homes, hospitals Wire and Cable Basic Materials Electronics Li-ion, Copper and other battery packaging mtls.
Diversified Garages and service stations Charging Stations Parking Stations Battery Swapping Recycling
BLOCK BUSTER BUSINESS MODEL** New Business Models that will address additional Electric Vehicle (EV) energy requirements will be formed at the intersection of several diverse and cross functional industries
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Summary of Frost & Sullivans Electric Vehicles Research Programme Providing a 360 overview of the market
Urbanization Trends
Global Urbanization Trends Mega City Trends PESTLE ANALYSIS Effects on personal, Urban & rural mobility EV infrastructure Development of public transport systems
Legislations
Voice of Consumer
EV Related Technology
Electronic Corner Module Assessment of Hybrid Market Assessment of Fuel Cell Market Analysis of Green Automotive Technologies Industrial opportunities in EV Segment
Country / City specific legislation EV Attractiveness / Ranking for key EU cities Local Incentives for electric vehicle adoption Specifications
EV Fleets (Drivers / Managers) EU+NA+APAC EV Consumers EU+NA Consumer acceptability towards new Business Models Tracking Analysis
Market / Technology Trends & Roadmaps Competitive Structure Global Market Forecasts Pricing trends Who supplies whom Database Technical specifications of competitors solutions
Electric Vehicles Forecasts By OEM (Global) Hybrid Electric Vehicle (Global) Battery Technology Technical Specs of EV (Global) Who Supplies Whom (Forthcoming)
Charging Station Roadmap Technical Specs by Type & Mode of charging Evolution of Charging Stations Forecasts for installation by Cities Pricing Analysis Energy Infrastructure and Role of Utilities ROI for charging station and Utility business Cash flows and ROI for integrators Business Model assessment for OEMs Cost of Ownership Assessment ROI for Charging Station Manufacturers ROI for Utilities ROI for Battery Swapping Business Analysis of Key Potential Industries
Infrastructure
Database
Batteries
360 Market Overview Market Size and Forecast Infrastructure and Legislative Trends Technology Analysis Business Model Assessment Cost of Ownership Consumer Adoption Trends
Business Models
Electric - 2 Wheeler
Hybrid & Electric Commercial Vehicle Global Customer and Market Analysis of Fleets -Global Light CVs Medium and HCVs (Hybrids and Electric)
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