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RIGA
VILNIUS
WARSAW
PRAGUE
BRATISLAVA
BUDAPEST
LJUBLJANA ZAGREB
BELGRAD
BUCHAREST
SOFIA
Business breakfast
Bucharest, May 17th, 2006
1
Agenda
2
TALLINN
TALLINN
RIGA
RIGA
VILNIUS
VILNIUS
WARSAW
WARSAW
PRAGUE
PRAGUE
BRATISLAVA
BRATISLAVA
BUDAPEST
BUDAPEST
ZAGREB
LJUBLJANA
LJUBLJANA ZAGREB
BELGRAD
BELGRAD BUCHAREST
BUCHAREST
SOFIA
SOFIA
3
The CEE banking market has experienced three
distinct phases
Banks • Countries start building full • Privatization of state • Competition heats up, especially from
functioning banking sector owned banks foreign players
• Foreign investors start • Foreign banks start buying • Markets are "underbanked" in
entering the market local banks capitalization and product penetration
• Bankruptcy of some new • International banks start to review
local banks their CEE strategy
Customers • Market focus on corporate • Competition in corporate • Corporate banking market becomes
banking banking increases mature
• Consumer banking market • Retail banking market • SME market segment starts fast
still immature develops development
• Huge potential perceived in retail
lending market and investment fund
business
4
Bank privatization is almost complete in core CEE
and Bulgaria, with the end in sight in Romania 2006
% banking assets controlled by the state, 2005 Comments
SE PL SL RO CZ HR BG SK HU
Note: updated to reflect BCR’s privatization in 2005: :a stake of 62% of BCR was sold to ERSTE Bank;
Source: Central banks, ECB, Raiffeisen Research “CEE Banking sector report, 2005 5
Four groups of regionally-diversified CEE banks
can be distinguished
EURO zone
300
75.913 EUR
250
200
SV
14.658 EUR
150
SK
100 CZ HR HU
BG Romania
PL
50
1.632 EUR
0 CAGR*
0 5 10 15 20 25 40
30 %
Notes: *2002-2005 CAGR for banking assets
The size of the bubble represents the banking assets/capita
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, BA-CA CEE Report, ECB, Eurostat, Central banks 8
Romania is catching up with CEE average on retail
lending, and the gap with EU fuels further growth
Retail lending as % of GDP Retail deposits as % of GDP
52.6% EU 12 54.4% EU 12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Note: For EU 12, retail lending and deposits include non profit institutions serving households
Source: ECB Monthly Bulletin, CEE Banking Sector Report 2005 by RZB Group, CEE Household Credit report by Unicredit 9
Low mortgage penetration will drive growth in retail
lending, probably more than consumer finance
Mortgage lending as % GDP [%] 2005 Consumer lending as % GDP [%] 2005
CAGR* CAGR*
Note: For EU 12, retail lending includes non profit institutions serving households
* CAGR 2000 - 2005
Source: Banking structures CEE (ECB), ECB Monthly Bulletin 10
Shrinking margins and high cost base will force
CEE banks to increase operational efficiency
62.8% 61.0%
58.9%
56.7%
53.3%
50.5%
20.6% 46.3% 45-50%
20% EU best
17.2% practice
16.1%
14.7%
13.7%
12.7% 11.5%
11.1% 11.0%
9.1% 9.2% RO
10%
7.2% 6.4%
8.8%
7.3% BG
6.7% 6.6% 5.9% PL
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 RO* PL SK BG HR HU CZ
12
Staff, strategy, marketing & sales, distribution are
viewed as key success factors in CEE
Source: ”Key factors for success of banks in CEE” by EFMA and zeb/ 13
CEE banking markets are selling markets, with a
focus on expansion and less on cost management
Key success factors
1 Strategy
> Positioning: Universal or
niche bank?
2 Distribution
> Alternative channels
> Network optimization and
expansion
14
STRATEGY
A B
Niche player Product Specialist
Narrow Broad
Distribution channel/segment
15
STRATEGY
Broad
2003: Offer basic account, loan an deposit
through mini branches – high marketing
cost for branding
2004: Offer mortgage loan products of other
Product banks (3rd party provider)
portfolio 2005: Develop internet offer, credit cards
16
STRATEGY EXAMPLE
Consumer finance
(Credit Agricole)
large customer base
• Target: mass clients, high number of clients over 50 • Extensive promotional campaigns and high
years – low risk group as far as loan repayment is spending on marketing
concerned • Substantial increase of revenue and profitability in
• Plans to enter the segment of small enterprises 2004; ROE 73%, net profit EUR 68 m
• Implementation of a new central IT system
Customer Results
17
STRATEGY EXAMPLE
18
STRATEGY EXAMPLE
Customer Promotion
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STRATEGY EXAMPLE
1 Drive customer
% of opening balance acquisition by "sales
100% finance loan" products
90% Card issued: 4th-6th month
80% 2 Drive high conversion
• Customer applies for 70% rate by automatic flip to
x-sell
sales finance 60% revolving credit
loans
account at POS to 50%
buy e.g. washing 40% 3 Drive revolving by strong
mashine 30%
4 revolvers cash card access
3
• Once acquired 20% functionality
2
customer gets 10%
4 Drive x-sell and
1
"converted" 0%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 reactivation by targeted
• Cross selling offers/ products
Month on file
• Customer life cycle
program
21
Key success factors
1 Strategy
> Positioning: Universal or
niche bank?
2 Distribution
> Alternative channels
> Network optimization and
expansion
22
DISTRIBUTION
Car loans
Consumer loans
Credit cards
Deposits
24
DISTRIBUTION
Product • 90% of all retail products (savings account, term deposits, credit cards, (cash) loans)
offer
• Servicing small business beginning of 2006
Organization • Partner incurs all the investment costs connected to setting up the branch
• Partner employs staff and sets the level of salary
• Bank offers the training for the partners opening the outlets
• Break-even point reached as soon as after 3-6 months
• Partner receives part of the transaction fees generated by the branch
• Preferred locations: suburbs, large settlements of block of flats, shopping centers and
centers of small towns
• All operations are carried out on-line and booked directly into the system of the Bank
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DISTRIBUTION
• Two types of agencies: so called ‘old’ type agencies – located in production plants
and ‘new’ type agencies accessible to all customers: approx. 3,000 agencies
• Established mainly in small towns where PKO BP does not have their own branches
Outlets and and bigger cities in block of flat areas
development
Product • PKO BP plans to increase the number of products and services available trough
offer the agency (next to cash handling, opening accounts, loan applications, etc.)
• Agencies realize around 20% of all cash operations within the bank, 7% of saving
accounts, intermediation in loan sale – 20 000 loans in value of EUR 70 m p.a. (2004)
Organization • Agency functions in the name of and on behalf of the bank PKO BP
• A person interested in opening the agency has to be an entrepreneur (run a business)
• Decision concerning setting up the agency is taken by the director of the
regional retail department
• Agent must provide space for 1 cash teller, space for servicing client with adequate
safety measures (around 30 m2 with 2 employees), and has to rent a POS terminal
• The average investment in the outlet amounts to ca. PLN 10 000
• PKO BP provides the agent with software, bank’s logo (free of charge), basic training
• Agency cannot employ anyone without the bank’ s acceptance
27
Key success factors
1 Strategy
> Positioning: Universal or
niche bank?
2 Distribution
> Alternative channels
> Network optimization and
expansion
28
MARKETING AND SALES EFFECTIVENESS
Notes: 1) Sample of selected Spanish and German big banks, 2004 2) Top 5 banks, 2004 29
MARKETING AND SALES EFFECTIVENESS
Notes: 1) Example of selected Spanish, Polish and German banks (retail segment)
2) Very few Polish banks have variable part up to 50% values only for full time employees
Source: Company's information 31
TALLINN
TALLINN
RIGA
RIGA
VILNIUS
VILNIUS
WARSAW
WARSAW
PRAGUE
PRAGUE
BRATISLAVA
BRATISLAVA
BUDAPEST
BUDAPEST
ZAGREB
LJUBLJANA
LJUBLJANA ZAGREB
BELGRAD
BELGRAD BUCHAREST
BUCHAREST
SOFIA
SOFIA
32
Growth in retail lending is expected to slow down,
driven more by mortgage than consumer lending
Outstanding retail loans [m RON] Comments
Product
supermarket
ABN Self Auto
banking bank
CEC Brokers Private
Mortgage
OTP Raiffeisen Locuinte brokers Niche banks bank
Porsche Bank Unicredit Mortgage
Procredit banks
– Cost Saver/ Niche Product specialist
–
Niche Product Specialist
– Distribution
+ – +
Distribution
34
Branch density is almost at par with mature CEE
banking markets
CZ 16
UK 19
FR 44
High potential to improve branch
IT 52 density and increase revenue
DE BUT investment and innovative
58
branch concepts required
ES 99
Car loans
Consumer loans
Credit cards
Deposits
Combinations are difficult Combinations are possible High competition Low competition 36
Credit cards and mortgages will be increasingly
attractive for retail banks
Market segment attractiveness overview
Growth
potential
Comments
50%
Credit
ess Cards • Some product groups require
c tiven
ing Attra Mortgage lending more specialist know how such
40% Grow
as investment products
Consumer lending
Mutual Funds
30% • Credit cards expected to boom
Life insurance
due to co-branded cards, an
Non-life insurance
20%
increasingly attractive marketing
tool for retailers and banks;
Leasing Deposits smart cards and premium cards
10% are promising niche segments
Corporate lending
Market
concentration
0%
Low Medium High
Notes: Bubble size represents size of the business. Size of the cards business not defined.
Market concentration measured by HHI (Herfindhahl – Hirschmann) index from 0 to 1; 0 Represents low market concentration.
Source: "Piata FInanciara", Insurance Supervision Commission, ASLR 37
Levers to grow profitably – cheaper distribution,
product innovation, sales effectiveness
1. Choose the right strategic • Positioning as a universal bank only if significant market share
positioning can be achieved; otherwise pursue niches
2. Excellent client • Development of new segments (e.g. low income segment,
segmentation/ Focus on agribusiness)
target groups • Focus on SME client segments
3. Product Innovation • Using one product as an anchor, then cross sell
• New innovative products (e.g. savings+ mortgage loan)
4. Optimize distribution • Use alternative distribution channels via third party agents,
mini offices
• Customize branch format to target clients and location
• Periodically reevaluate branch locations
5. Execution • Increase of sales efficiency in integrated multi channel concept
• Strengthening of marketing/communication
• Increase of sales resources and cross selling leverage of sales channels
• Sales focus on performance (Incentives, activity controlling, etc.)
• Tight processes; shortening response time
• Risk management
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D. Appendix
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
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A truly global company
31 offices in 21 countries
Revenues of EUR 530 m
1,630 employees
75% of all projects with cross-border challenges
Amsterdam I Barcelona I Beijing I Berlin I Brussels I Bucharest I Budapest I Detroit I Düsseldorf I Frankfurt I
Hamburg I Kiev I Lisbon I London I Madrid I Milan I Moscow I Munich I New York I Paris I Prague I Riga I
Rome I São Paulo I Shanghai I Stuttgart I Tokyo I Vienna I Warsaw I Zagreb I Zurich
network
40
Our clients' trust is the basis for our growth
EUR 530 m
New
clients 24%
76% Repeat
clients
+17.1% p.a.
42
Our clients in CEE include the world's leading
financial institutions
• Strategy
• Strategic repositioning
• Organizational realignment
• Market entry strategies, international
diversification
• Post merger integration
• Sales and marketing strategies (including
SalesUp!)
• Credit risk management optimization
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Thank you!
Amsterdam • Barcelona • Beijing • Berlin • Brussels • Bucharest • Budapest • Buenos Aires • Detroit •
Dusseldorf • Frankfurt • Hamburg • Kiev • Lisbon • London • Madrid • Milan • Moscow • Munich •
New York • Paris • Prague • Riga • Rome • San Francisco • Santiago de Chile • São Paulo • Shanghai •
Stuttgart • Tokyo • Vienna • Warsaw • Zurich
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