Rita Narayanan et al.

, IJSID, 2012, 2 (6), 200-203

ISSN:2249-5347

IJSID

International Journal of Science Innovations and Discoveries

Review Article
Rita Narayanan*

An International peer Review Journal for Science

Available online through www.ijsidonline.info

PREDICTIVE MODELING IN FOOD PRODUCTS

Assistant Professor, Department of Dairy Science, Madras Veterinary College, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India ABSTRACT

Received: 19-10-2012 Accepted: 31-12-2012

*Corresponding Author

plants in cold chain has largely eliminated spoilage of milk due to undesirable organisms but emergence of psychrotropic group of organisms that can multiply rapidly at refrigerated also the poor keeping quality of the products and are not only a concern of public health hazard due to production of toxin by certain strains but also a cause of economic losses is often desirable to know the current bacterial population or the number that will be present not led to a cumulative, structured database of information that can be interrogated quickly. It growth of single controlling factors such as temperature, pH or water activity, resulted in

temperature. These psychrotropic spore formers indicate not only unsanitary conditions but through spoilage. Traditional methods for enumerating bacteria are not instantaneous and has in the future if a product is subjected to particular treatments. Study of the effects on microbial

Adoption of refrigerated storage of bulk raw milk and its delivery to the processing

Address: Name: Rita Narayan Place: Tamil Nadu, India E-mail: ritanarayanan@yahoo.com

acceptance that particular microbes of concern would not grow below certain temperatures, or below a certain pH value or water activity. Thus if the growth response determined by those controlling factors could be measured, and modeled, the result would indicate how much

growth could be attributed to those three factors. Predictive microbiology is a description of

INTRODUCTION the microbial response to a particular environmental condition, using models as a basis on
which predictions are made. It is used to assess the risks of food processing, distribution, microbiological quality of foods, important for both food safety and product quality. Thus by

storage and food handling; and to implement control measures in order to protect the measuring growth once it is possible to tell how a future population will develop under the Programs like Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP) Growth Predictor, Food Spoilage Predictor concentration Key: Predictive modeling, shelf life, psychrotrophs in cold storage same conditions. INTRODUCTION these types of predictions can be made from graphs In its simplest form, showing the number of bacteria measured in samples taken during growth against time. allows growth or inactivation of pathogens to be predicted for different combinations of constant temperature, pH, NaCl/aw and in some conditions such as organic acid type and

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Rita Narayanan et al., IJSID, 2012, 2 (6), 200-203 adoption of refrigerated storage of bulk raw milk and its subsequent delivery to the processing plants in cold chain has largely eliminated spoilage of milk due to undesirable organisms. This handling system of raw milk has resulted in the emergence of psychrotropic group of organisms that can multiply rapidly at or below 7C irrespective of their optimum growth temperature. The psychrotropic spore formers remain in heat processed cold stored milk and other dairy foods. These psychrotropic spore formers are the reasons for spoilage of milk and milk products. The presence of these organisms in milk and milk products strains but also a cause of economic losses through spoilage. psychrotropic spore formers in milk is not only of concern as a public health hazard due to production of toxin by certain concern to everybody from food producers and processors to retailers and consumers. Traditional methods for enumerating bacterial number change allows present and future levels to be predicted. Milk is a favoured medium for the growth of many microorganisms that cause spoilage. However, widespread INTRODUCTION

indicate not only unsanitary conditions but also the poor keeping quality of the products. Presence and multiplication of The number of pathogenic and spoilage bacteria present in food has both health and financial implications and is of

bacteria are not instantaneous and hence information only on the number of organisms that were present at the sampling time product is subjected to particular treatments. Information on initial levels of contamination combined with knowledge on how microbiologists follow the old fashioned approach of enumerating microbes at different stages of food storage, identifying Food microbiology has adopted modern methods and novel concepts with some reluctance. Many food

can be gained. It is often desirable to know the current bacterial population or the number that will be present in the future if a

the major fractions of the microflora by their phenotypic characters, and gradually building up an understanding of the shelflife and safety of foods. However it is slow and expensive, and has not led to a cumulative, structured database of information below a certain pH value or water activity. Some scientists recognized that other factors were important e.g. the composition factors appeared enormous and beyond the scope of individual food microbiologists. Not until the problem was viewed from response determined by those controlling factors could be measured, then modeled, the result would indicate how much significant, other factors would have to be taken into account. of the atmosphere above the food, preservatives, food structure, but the experiments needed to cover the effects of all those or water activity, resulted in acceptance that particular microbes of concern would not grow below certain temperatures, or another perspective was progress made. All foods contain water, have a pH value and a temperature of storage. If the growth Predictive microbiology is a description of the microbial response to a particular environmental condition, using

that can be interrogated quickly. Study of the effects on microbial growth of single controlling factors such as temperature, pH

growth could be attributed to those three factors. If the differences between the calculated and observed responses were models as a basis on which predictions are made. The models use experimental data, and equations (known as algorithms), to Predictive microbiology is used to assess the risks of food processing, distribution, storage and food handling; and to product quality. SOME EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF PREDICTIVE MICROBIOLOGY:Identifying potentially dangerous formulations. Evaluating the safety and stability of new formulations and identifying one that gives the desired shelf-life. produce a prediction. A prediction should be used as a guide to the response of an organisms to a particular set of conditions. implement control measures in order to protect the microbiological quality of foods, important for both food safety and

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occur reproducibly in the same environment. Thus by measuring growth once it is possible to tell how a future population will develop under the same conditions. In its simplest form, these types of predictions can be made from graphs showing the growth function. allowing the population at any time to be estimated by interpolation. The trend can also be described mathematically by a

Predicting the time taken by yeast to spoil a fruit juice.

Rita Narayanan et al., IJSID, 2012, 2 (6), 200-203

Identify which microorganisms are likely to be the limiting factors with regard to food safety and spoilage.

number of bacteria measured in samples taken during growth against time. The points on the growth curve will show a trend

Predictive microbiology is based on the hypothesis that growth is an intrinsic characteristic of the organism and will

type. A spores by a log-linear model, which is still used to estimate the necessary heat processing of low-acid canned foods. This model simply says that, at a given temperature, the relative (or specific) death rate of the bacteria is constant with time. In other words, the percentage of the cell population inactivated in a unit time is constant. studied the effect of the temperature on the specific microbial death rate. water, quantified today by the so-called water activity, a dimensionless number between 0 (dry) and 1 (wet). He subsequently by the pH and water activity; followed by preservatives, antimicrobials and the composition of the atmosphere. However, the environment can change with time. Another aim was to use more mechanistic models, i.e. to describe the mechanism primarily by data-fitting. A step forward was taken by Scott (1936), who investigated how the specific death rate depended on the available It is generally agreed that the most important environmental factor determining growth is the temperature, followed

Its earliest appearance is probably Esty and Meyer (1922), who described the thermal death of Clostridium botulinum

while the temperature is controllable during the storage of the food, the other environmental conditions are not. Furthermore, they can be changed by the growing bacteria, and they can affect each other (interactions). This increased the need for

dynamic models, when the constant environment would just be a special case (zero-variation) of the general scenario, when behind the observed process by models based on laws of fundamental sciences; as opposed to the empirical models driven processing, distribution and storage operations on the microbiological safety and quality of foods. Later, the same authors used the expression Quantitaive Microbial Ecology of Food, which is a somewhat more generic description. The most recent environments by mathematical models. Baranyi and Roberts published three papers (1993, 1994 and 1995) that gave a good mathematical basis for McMeekin et al. (1993) defined it as a quantitative science that enables users to evaluate objectively the effect of

book on the field (McKellar and Xu, 2003) puts more emphasis on the need to describe the microbial response to the food chamber and an automated image analyzer to enable observation of divisions of thousands of single cells, and to derive popular to describe the effect of temperature on the specific growth rate. Just 20 years ago very few food microbiologists food. food regulators. From the early empirical models, a new generation of modeling approaches, together with international

mechanistic modeling of the lag phase. That theory was recently validated experimentally by Elfwing et al. (2004) using a flow statistical distributions of them. By the 190s, the square-root (secondary) model of Ratkowsky (1983) had become the most believed that models of microbial growth and death would never be sufficiently reliable to be used in the food industry, or by

collaboration, has opened the door to the possibility of predicting growth and death properties for the key microorganisms in International Journal of Science Innovations and Discoveries, Volume 2, Issue 6, November-December 2012

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inactivation of pathogens to be predicted for different combinations of constant temperature, pH, NaCl/aw and in some conditions such as organic acid type and concentration. They also contain a model for the effect of temperature and water service for chilled foods where predictions for Pseudomonas spp., Bacillus spp., Enterobacteriaceae etc. are made. CONCLUSION

activity on the growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonas. Forecast bureau modeling programs are special shelf life prediction developed which take into consideration possible interactions of the microflora with the product. This is of great importance a combined effect on the growth or retardation of spoilage organisms, are used. Progress is expected in the area of interaction between bacteria and environmental factors. These tasks require interdisciplinary collaboration of food microbiologists and mathematicians; food technologists and computer scientists; molecular microbiologists and statisticians. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. REFERENCES 4) 277-294. Spoilage organisms have not received much attention for development of comprehensive models. Models should be

Programs like Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP) Growth Predictor, Food Spoilage Predictor allows growth or

Rita Narayanan et al., IJSID, 2012, 2 (6), 200-203

in determining the shelf life of refrigerated dairy products where lactic acid bacteria, humectans and preservatives which have

Baranyi and Roberts (1994). A dynamic approach to predicting microbial growth in food; Intl. J. Food Microbiology 23 (3Baranyi and Roberts (1995). Mathematics of predictive food microbiology; Intl. J. Food Microbiology 26 (2) 199-228. Elfwing, A, LeMarc, Y, Baranyi, J and Ballagi, A (2004) Applied and Environmental Microbiology. Diseases 31. McMeekin and Ross and Olley (1992, 1993) (in press) Griffiths, M.W. (1994). Predictive modeling: applications in the dairy industry. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23: 305-315. McMeekin, T.A and Ross, T (1996)-International Journal of Food Microbiology. bacterial cultures. J.Bacteriol., 149(1), 1-5. Modeling microbial responses in food. Ceylon Journal of Science (Bio. Sci.) 40 (2): 121-131. Esty, J.R and Meyer, K.F. (1922). The heat resistance of spores of B.botulinus and allied anaerobes, Journal of Infectious

Md. Fakruddin, Reaz Mohammad Mazumder and Khanjada Shahnewaj Bin Mannan (2011) Predictive microbiology: Ratkowsky, D.A., Olley, J., Mcmeekin.T.A and Ball, A 9(1982) Relaitonship between temperature and growth rate of growth at -1C. J. Counc. Sci. Ind. Res. (Aust). 9, 177-182.

10. Ross, T. and McMeekin, T.A. (1994). Predictive Microbiology. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23: 241-264.

11. Scott,W.J., (1936). The growth of microorganisms on ox muscle. The influence of water content of substrate on rate of microbiology fundamentals and frontiers. Washington (DC). American Society for Microbiology (In Press). Pp. 728-39.

12. Whiting, R.C. and Buchanan, R.L.B. (1997). Predictive modeling. In: Doyle MP, Beuchat L.R., Montville, T.J. (Eds.) Food

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