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Quantitative Technique- 2 Assignment

X1

Ravindra Kumar(50034)

X2 X3 X4 X5 The data (X1, X2, X3, X4, X5) are by city. 8 78 284 9.1 109 9.3 68 433 8.7 144 X1 = death rate per 1000 residents 7.5 70 739 7.2 113 8.9 96 1792 8.9 97 X2 = doctor availability per 100,000 residents 10.2 74 477 8.3 206 X3 = hospital availability per 100,000 residents 8.3 111 362 10.9 124 X4 = annual per capita income in thousands of 8.8 77 671 10 152 dollars 8.8 168 636 9.1 162 X5 = population density people per square mile 10.7 82 329 8.7 150 11.7 89 634 7.6 134 Above data for ten city are given. Build a multiple regression for death rate as dependent variable and independent variable as a doctor availability, hospital availability, per capita income, population density and test at a 5% that regression as a whole significantly represents the death rate? SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.537396 R Square 0.288794 Adjusted R Square -0.28017 Standard Error 1.463415 Observations 10 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total 4 5 9 SS MS F 4.348081 1.08702 0.507578 10.70792 2.141583 15.056 Standard Error t Stat P-value 5.29972 1.794783 0.132646 0.017716 -0.11348 0.914066 0.001277 0.142723 0.892082 0.495352 -0.65877 0.539169 0.017385 1.101494 0.320859 Significance F 0.734544

Coefficients Intercept 9.511847 Doctor avail. -0.00201 Hospital avail. 0.000182 per capita -0.32632 Density 0.01915 Regression equation:-

Lower 95% -4.11152 -0.04755 -0.0031 -1.59966 -0.02554

Upper 95% 23.13521 0.043531 0.003466 0.947021 0.06384

Y hat = 9.511847- 0.00201* Doctor avail + 0.000182* Hospital avail. - 0.32632* per capita. + 0.01915*Density Here equation shows that doctor and per capita income in negative related to y hat and hospital and density are positive related to regression equation it means hospital is not doing their job properly Analysis:R square- It is called the coefficient of multiple determinations and also the proportion of the total variation of Y hat that is explained by the regression plane. In my data the value of R square is

28.88% which is very low .This tells us that 28.88% percent of the total of death rate can be explain by independent variable i.e. number of doctor available, hospital available, per capita income and population density. Standard error- The standard error of estimate is a measure of error of prediction or variability of data point around the regression line. Here standard error is 1.463415which is very high. P-value:-It is the highest value of significance level at which we select the null hypothesis it means it means if significance level is more than prob value then null hypothesis is not accepted here. Here prob value of all independent variable is very high; it means none of the variable is significant at 5% significance level. Hypothesis testing:Ho: B1=B2=B3=B4=0 H1: at least one is not equal to zero Null hypotheses: slopes of the independent variables are zero Alternate hypothesis

Now I have to find out F ratio observed and F ratio critical F ratio is equal to SSR(egression sum of square )/K divided by SSE(error sum of squares)/(N-K-1) where K is number of independent variable and called numerator degree of freedom ,N is number of observation and N-K-1 is called denominator degree of freedom. It is find from F table Here F ratio observed is 0.507578 and F(4,5 5%) is 5.19, which is little more than F ratio observed So null hypothesis is accepted, it means regression plane as a whole is not significant at 5% significance level. The same, we can do by comparing significance F and significance level Here P-value of all the independent variable is higher than significance level so none of the variable is significant at 5% significance level Q. If there is a belief that the slopes of per capita income is -1 then test it at a 10% significance level Solution: - Ho: B = -1 H1: B -1 Null hypothesis slope of per capita income is -1 Alternate Hypothesis-slope is not equal to -1

Now I have to find t observed and t critical Tobs = (coefficient of per capita) (-1) and the whole divided by standard error of per capita income Tobs = (-0.32632 +1)/ 0.495352 =1.36 T cr comes from t table for 5% significance level and degree of freedom of (N-K-1) 5 that is 2.015, which is more than observed value so null hypothesis accepted. It means slope of per capita income is -1 so one additional increment in per capita income decline date rate by one unit. Reference :- Statistics for management by Richard I Levin & David S. Rubin Data source:http://college.cengage.com/mathematics/brase/understandable_statistics/7e/students/datasets/mlr/fram es/frame.html