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PORTFOLIO A Portfolio is a collection of investments. As it is not desirable for any investor to invest all of his funds in one individual security / asset, it is essential that every security / asset should be viewed in a portfolio context. An investor, while constructing his portfolio, is faced with the problem of choosing a few from amongst a large number of securities. His attempt would be to select the most desirable securities and to allocate his available funds over these securities in the most rational way. His choice would depend upon the risk-return characteristics of a portfolio differ from those of the individual securities combined into it. The essence of optimal portfolio lies in diversification.
DIVERSIFICATION NEVER PUT ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET is what is meant by diversification. Instead of investing all funds is one asset, the funds be invested in a group of assets. An investors starts with investing in one security. His risk of investment is equal to the risk of the security. As he adds more securities to his portfolio, his exposure to a particular source of risk becomes smaller. Risk reduction through diversification can be explained in terms of the insurance principle.
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investment in assets and securities. It is a dynamic and flexible concept and involves regular and systematic analysis judgment and action. It helps to investor in adjusting their returns in tune with the market conditions. It helps in optimizing the returns with lower risks. It helps in the allocation of surplus funds. The study helps to the unknown investors with the expertise of professionals in investment and portfolio management. The project study helps to guide & the investor to select the portfolios which provide current income and constant income.
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Primary data is the data which is collected first time by Our own by using observation, personal interview and questionnaire.
Secondary data is the data which is taken from the already existing source like books, magazines and news papers. In the present study, the secondary data is collected from the following sources. News papers. Journals & Magazines. Websites.
DATA ANALYSIS In the present study, I am going to analyze the data by using various statistical tools like standard deviation, correlation coefficient, covariance, and by using graphs and charts.
DATA COLLECTION METHODS The methodology adopted for the study is observation method. It is used to understand the procedures & evaluation of the investors performance as well as the impact of the brokers of the stock exchange in the selection and performance of portfolio.
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DEFINITION In economics, typically, the term market means the aggregate of possible buyers and sellers of a thing and the transactions between them. The term "market" is sometimes used for what are more strictly exchanges, organizations that facilitate the trade in financial securities, e.g., a stock exchange or commodity exchange. This may be a physical location (like the NYSE) or an electronic system (like NASDAQ). Much trading of stocks takes place on an exchange; still, corporate actions (merger, spinoff) are outside an exchange, while any two companies or people, for whatever reason, may agree to sell stock from the one to the other without using an exchange. Trading of currencies and bonds is largely on a bilateral basis, although some bonds trade on a stock exchange, and people are building electronic systems for these as well, similar to stock exchanges. Financial markets can be domestic or they can be international.
bonds, and enable the subsequent trading thereof. Commodity markets, which facilitate the trading of commodities. Money markets, which provide short term debt financing and
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Investment. Derivatives markets, which provide instruments for the Management of financial risk. Futures markets, which provide standardized forward contracts for trading products at some future date; see also forward market. Insurance markets, which facilitate the redistribution of various risks. Foreign exchange markets, which facilitate the trading of foreign exchange.
The capital markets consist of primary markets and secondary markets. Newly formed (issued) securities are bought or sold in primary markets. Secondary markets allow investors to sell securities that they hold or buy existing securities. RAISING CAPITAL Without financial markets, borrowers would have difficulty finding lenders themselves. Intermediaries such as banks help in this process. Banks take deposits from those who have money to save. They can then lend money from this pool of deposited money to those who seek to borrow. Banks popularly lend money in the form of loans and mortgages.
More complex transactions than a simple bank deposit require markets where lenders and their agents can meet borrowers and their agents, and where existing borrowing or lending commitments can be sold on to other parties. A good example of a financial market is a stock exchange.
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Origination: It deals with the origin of the new issue. The proposal is analysed in term of the nature of the security and the size of the new issue and timing of the issue and rotation method of the issue. Under writing: It contacts makes the share predictable and removes the element of uncertainty in the subscription. Distribution: It refers to the sell of securities to the investors, this is carried out with the help of the lead managers and the brokers to the issue. Structure of the Market: There are various sub-markets in the capital markets in India. The structure has undergone vast changes in recent years. New instruments and new institutions have emerged on the scene.
The sub markets are as follows: 1. Market for corporate securities for new issues and old securities. 2. Market for government securities. 3. Market for debt instruments debentures and Private sector bonds, Public sector bonds, Public financial institutions. 4. Mutual fund schemes and UTI schemes, etc.
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SECONDARY MARKET The securities are traded in the secondary market, which is commonly known as the stock market (or) stock exchange. In the secondary market the investors can be sell and buy the securities .The stock market deals with the equity shares and debt instruments like bonds & debentures and also traded in the stock market. The health of economy is reflected by the growth of the stock market.
STOCK MARKET STRUCTURE Regular Stock Exchanges (21) For big companies with paid up capital above Rs. 5 crores trading ring and physical operations includes principal exchanges like Mumbai, Delhi, etc. and regional exchanges like Hyderabad, Cochin etc.
Over the counter Exchange of India (1) Computerized trading for smaller Companies with paid up capital of Rs. 30 lakhs to Rs. 25 crores. No trading ring started operations in Oct. 92. National Stock Exchange (1) Recognized in April 93 and started operations later, only in govt. securities and money market instruments. Equity trading started in Nov. 1994 computerized trading. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) was set up in June 1994. It has shown impressive performance since its inception. In January 1997, there were 541 companies listed on NSE, and about 600 other securities wee permitted for trading. The trading volume has been higher than BSE since November 1995. The total turnover in 1996 was Rs. 216483 crores. The market capitalization in January 1997 was Rs.4.2 billion.
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A company can be listed on NSE on the condition that it should have a minimum paid up capital of Rs. 10 crore and a market capitalization of Rs. 25 crores and it should have a track record of profitability atleast for three years. The trading system in NSE is computerized. By the end of 1996, NSE has put in place 1102 VSATs (very small aperture terminals). They cover 66 cities (49 without any stock exchanges). BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE The Stock Exchange, Mumbai, popularly known as "BSE" was established in 1875 as "The Native Share and Stock Brokers Association". It is the oldest one in Asia, even older than the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which was established in 1878. It is a voluntary non-profit making Association of Persons (AOP) and is currently engaged in the process of converting itself into demutualised and corporate entity. It has evolved over the years into its present status as the premier Stock Exchange in the country. It is the first Stock Exchange in the Country to have obtained permanent recognition in 1956 from the Govt. of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act,1956.
The Exchange, while providing an efficient and transparent market for trading in securities, debt and derivatives upholds the interests of the investors and ensures redressal of their grievances whether against the companies or its own memberbrokers. It also strives to educate and enlighten the investors by conducting investor education programmes and making available to them necessary informative inputs.
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A Governing Board having 20 directors is the apex body, which decides the policies and regulates the affairs of the Exchange. The Governing Board consists of 9 elected directors, who are from the broking community (one third of them retire ever year by rotation), three SEBI nominees, six public representatives and an Executive Director & Chief Executive Officer and a Chief Operating Officer.
The Executive Director as the Chief Executive Officer is responsible for the dayto-day administration of the Exchange and the Chief Operating Heads of Departments assist him. Officer and other
The Exchange has inserted new Rule No.126 A in its Rules, Bye-laws & Regulations pertaining to constitution of the Executive Committee of the Exchange. Accordingly, an Executive Committee, consisting of three elected directors, three SEBI nominees or public representatives, Executive Director & CEO and Chief Operating Officer has been constituted. The Committee considers judicial & quasi matters in which the Governing Board has powers as an Appellate Authority, matters regarding annulment of transactions, admission, continuance and suspension of member-brokers, declaration of a member-broker as defaulter, norms, procedures and other matters relating to arbitration, fees, deposits, margins and other monies payable by the member-brokers to the Exchange, etc.
Turnover on the Exchange The average daily turnover of the Exchange during the financial year 2000-2001 (April-March), was Rs.3984.19 crores and the average number of daily trades was 5.69 lakhs. The average daily turnover of the Exchange in the subsequent two Financial years, i.e., 2001-02 & 2002-03, has declined considerably to Rs. 1248.15 crores and Rs. 1251.29 crores respectively.
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The average number of daily trades recorded during 2001-02 and 2002-03 numbered 5.17 lakhs and 5.63 lakhs respectively.
The average daily turnover and average number of daily trades during the quarter April-June 2003 were Rs. 1101.05 crores and 5.70 lakhs respectively.
The ban on all deferral products like Borrowing & Lending of Securities Scheme (BLESS) and Automated Lending & Borrowing Mechanism (ALBM) in the Indian capital markets by SEBI w.e.f. July 2, 2001, abolition of account period settlements, introduction of Compulsory Rolling Settlements in all scrips traded on the Exchanges w.e.f. December 31, 2001, etc. have adversely impacted the liquidity in the market and consequently there is a considerable decline in the average daily turnover at the Exchange as reflected in above statistics.
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These activities may be conducted by both companies and governments. This market is divided into primary capital market and secondary capital market. The primary market is designed for the new issues and the secondary market is meant for the trade of existing issues. Stocks and bonds are the two basic capital market instruments used in both the primary and secondary markets. There are three different markets in which stocks are used as the capital market instrument: the physical, virtual, and auction markets
MONEY MARKETS
The Concise Oxford Dictionary defines money as a current medium of exchange. This definition, if rather sparse, does detail the essential nature of money: it is a recognized form of exchange for goods and services. It can take many forms: anything which is accepted by the seller, because it has a recognized value which can be used to purchase further goods and services, will suffice as money. The purpose of money is to fulfill the following. It must be accepted as a unit of account and a means of exchange or payment, be durable, scarce, easily dividable, and stable in value. Money that is on account of the Central Bank is the Real Money. All other forms for e.g. the account balances with Commercial Banks, even cash (check out the note by the RBI governor on Indian currency note), are promises to pay money, but not real money. Like individuals, Banks and large institutions also transact amongst each other, lending and borrowing huge amounts of money. In these transactions cash is not involved, real money kept in accounts with the Central Bank will be transacted. Consider this example. IDBI Bank needs to pay SBI Rs.10 Crores balancing figure at the end of the day. This transaction happens by requesting RBI to increase the account balance of SBI by 10 Crores and corresponding decrease in the account balance of IDBI. Now with this the balances or total money with IDBI reduces. But it might be requiring that money for transactions with its other customers. This means a
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party (IDBI), which wants to borrow money now. There might be another institution that might be having surplus money that it does not require in the near future, say ICICI Bank having surplus money for15 days (the same duration that IDBI wants it for). So we have ICICI loaning IDBI Rs.10 Crores for 15 days at an agreed rate. This was a MONEY MARKET transaction. More specifically, Money Market provides short-term finance (for a period less than 1 year.) The parties involved in Money Markets are Central Bank, Commercial Banks, FIs, Mutual Funds and Primary Dealers. (The extension of Money Market is Capital Market where finance is transacted for a period longer than 1 year, in form of both Debt & Equity) Money Markets exist because of the fundamental need of Working Capital Management where balance between Liquidity and Profitability is paramount. The market provides a conduit for Cash surplus and deficient organizations to transact and reach an equilibrium regarding the cost of funds (interest rates.) The borrowing and lending in money markets is high volume, low risk and short-term. Because it is short-term, transaction costs are high relative to the interest that can be earned. And because transaction costs are high relative to the interest that can be earned, transactions in the money market tend to be for very large amounts. Short-term is generally understood as less than one year, although, in fact, most money market activity is concentrated in terms to maturity between overnight and one-week.
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Treasury bills bankers acceptances commercial paper, and
Certificates of deposit. Borrowers in money markets are all high quality names and so the securities issued and traded have low risk, low yield, high liquidity characteristics which are attractive to risk average lenders. In terms of risk Profiles: Treasury Bills, Bankers Acceptances, CD and CPs range from the lowest to highest risk in that order, being governed by the credit worthiness of party backing it. Consequently, the returns are in inverse order for these instruments. Regular issues of Treasury bills backed by central government have the lowest default risk, creating the deepest market segment of homogeneous, highly liquid paper - with consequently the lowest yield. This is because governments are generally assumed to have a very low default risk. Bankers' Acceptances are also very safe investments as they carry the obligation to honor payment by both a corporate and a bank, and in addition, because they usually represent a business transaction with specific underlying goods. Certificates of Deposit, honoured by a single bank, generally trade a few basis points higher, but this can only be a generalisation as the market segment is itself tiered; the range of names issuing resulting in different credit and liquidity premiums. The Commercial Paper segment presents the greatest degree of tiering. Prime grade CP generally trades a few basis points over CDs, but again, some corporates are perceived as being more creditworthy than some banks. Medium grade CP offers the highest yields to attract investors.
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REPO A repurchase (repo) agreement can be seen as a short term swap between cash and securities. Repurchase agreements, or repos, are specialised but important aspects of many markets, especially those for government securities. In essence, if a security holder wants to maintain his or her long-term position but needs cash for a short period, he or she can enter into a repo contract whereby the securities are sold together with a binding agreement to repurchase them at a future date, usually fairly near-term. The effect is to provide the security holder with a short-term loan based on the collateral of the government securities he or she owns. In major markets with repo systems, it is a cheap, simple and effective way to raise short-term funds. For banks and large corporates, liquidity management is about getting a fine return on cash, which they may need at short notice. They do this by borrowing and lending between each other - using either money market securities or deposits and loans - in what is called the interbank market.
Can individual investors invest in Money markets? One of the main differences between the money market and the stock market is that most money market securities trade in very high denominations and so individual investors have limited access to them. The easiest way for individual investors to gain access to the money market is with a money market mutual fund, or sometimes a money market bank account. These accounts and funds pool together the assets of thousands of investors and buy the money market securities on their behalf. Although, some money market instruments like treasury bills may be purchased directly or through other large financial institutions with direct access to these markets.
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and orders in its judicial capacity. Though this makes it very powerful, there is an appeals process to create accountability. There is a Securities Appellate Tribunal which is a three member tribunal and is presently headed by a former Chief Justice of a High court - Mr. Justice NK Sodhi. A second appeal lies directly to the Supreme Court. SEBI has enjoyed success as a regulator by pushing systemic reforms aggressively and successively (e.g. the quick movement towards making the markets electronic and paperless rolling settlement on T+2 basis). SEBI has been active in setting up the regulations as required under law ORGANISATION STRUCTURE Chandrasekhar Bhaskar Bhave is the sixth chairman of the Securities Market Regulator. Prior to taking charge as Chairman SEBI, he had been the chairman of NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited) ushering in paperless securities. Prior to his stint at NSDL, he had served SEBI as a Senior Executive Director. He is a former Indian Administrative Service officer of the 1975 batch.
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
REGISTRA R OF COMPANIE S
COMPAN Y LAW
BOARD
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The groups life insurance arm, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company, was the biggest contributor to the firms income. Bajaj Allianz has posted a profit of Rs 68 crore in the June quarter. In the year-ago quarter, it had posted a loss of Rs 3 crore.Gross written premium for the quarter rose 40 per cent to Rs 2,001 crore as against Rs 1,847 crore in the corresponding period last year. Renewal premium, too, increased to Rs 1,423 crore as against Rs 1,018 crore in the quarter ended June 30, 2010. However, new business premium fell 42.28 per cent to Rs 577 crore.
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2.1 ALLIANZ GROUP:
Allianz Group is one of the world's leading insurers and financial services providers. Founded in 1890 in Berlin, Allianz is now present in over 70 countries with almost 174,000 employees. At the top of the international group is the holding company, Allianz AG, with its head office in Munich. Allianz Group provides its more than 60 million customers worldwide with a comprehensive range of services in the areas of Property and Casualty Insurance, Life and Health Insurance, Asset Management and Banking. Allianz Ag- A Global Financial Powerhouse Worldwide 2nd by Gross Written Premiums - Rs.4, 46,654 crore.
2.3 VISION OF THE COMPANY: To be the first choice insurer for customers. To be the preferred employer for staff in Insurance industry. To be the number one insurer for creating shareholder value To aspire to be a world class organization.
2.4 MISSION OF THE COMPANY: As a responsible, customer focused market leader, BAJAJ ALLIANZ is determined to understand the insurance needs of the consumers and translate it into affordable products that deliver value for money.
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Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Co. Ltd. is a joint venture between two leading conglomerates- Allianz AG, one of the world's largest insurance companies, and Bajaj Auto, one of the biggest 2 and 3 wheeler manufacturers in the world. Characterized by global presence with a local focus and driven by customer orientation to establish high earnings potential and financial strength, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Co. Ltd. was incorporated on 12th March 2001. The company received the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) certificate of Registration (R3) No 116 on 3rd August 2001 to conduct Life Insurance business in India. Bajaj Auto Ltd, the flagship company of the Rs. 8000 crore Bajaj group is the largest manufacturer of two-wheelers and three-wheelers in India and one of the largest in the world. A household name in India, Bajaj Auto has a strong brand image & brand loyalty synonymous with quality & customer focus. With over 15,000 employees, the company is a Rs. 4000 crore auto giant, is the largest 2/3wheeler manufacturer in India and the 4th largest in the world. AAA rated by Crisil, Bajaj Auto has been in operation for over 55 years. It has joined hands with Allianz to provide the Indian consumers with a distinct option in terms of life insurance products.
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DETAILS OF THE COMPANY:
BOARD OF DIRECTORS:
Mr. Rahul Bajaj (Chairman) Dr. Werner Zedelius Mr. Sanjay Asher Mr. Niraj Bajaj Mr. Sanjiv Bajaj Mr. Heinz Dollberg Mr. Ranjit Gupta Mr. S. H. Khan Mr. Suraj Mehta Mr. Dietmar Raich Mr. Manu Tandon Mr. Kamesh Goyal (Alternate Director to Dr. Werner Zedelius)
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MAJOR COMPETITORS:
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SAFE GUARD FOR POLICY HOLDERS MONEY Important Sections 1. Section 27 of Insurance Act
Investment of Assets 65% Government Securities & 35% Specified Stocks
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6. Section 52H of Insurance Act Power of Central Government to acquire undertaking of Insurers in certain cases.
In the interest of the Policy Holders or Share Holders of such Insurer, it is necessary to acquire the undertaking of such Insurer the Central Government may, by notified order, Acquire the undertaking of such Insurer.
7. Section 54 of Insurance Act Voluntary winding up Not withstanding anything contained in the Indian Companies Act,
1913 (7 of 1913), an Insurance Company shall not be wound up voluntarily except for the purpose of affecting an amalgamation or a reconstruction of the company.
Recently (11-6-07) Bajaj Allianz has launched a medical policy is known as Care First.
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About the Bajaj Allianz Care First Plan
Bajaj Allianz Care First is a unique hospitalization-cum-insurance plan that take care of policy holders hospitalization bills and also provide crucial financial to dependents in case of policy holders unfortunate death. Unlike ordinary annual Mediclaim policies this is a 3 year risk cover plan that allows policy holders to renew the policy after every 3 years and keeps covered till the age of 65 years. The premium rate is level and guaranteed for the length of the each policy term of 3 years.
Key Benefits
Hospitalization Cover Day Care Treatment Pre-Hospitalization and Post- Hospitalization Cover Cash Less Service Facility Death Benefit Tax Benefit
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Hospitalization Cover
Following expenses incurred during hospitalization for continuous period of 24 hours for inpatient treatment would be covered under this policy. 1. Room rent and Boarding expenses. 2. Nursing expenses 3. Doctors fees 4. Operation theatre charges 5. Cost of Anesthesia, Medicines and Drugs, Artificial Limb, an Pacemaker.
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THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
Specification and qualification of investor objectives, constraints, and preferences in the form of an investment policy statement. Determination and qualification of capital market expectations for the economy, market sectors, industries and individual securities. Allocation of assets and determination of appropriate portfolio strategies for each asset class and selection of individual securities. Performance measurement and evaluation to ensure attainment of investor objectives. Monitoring portfolio factors and responding to changes in investor objectives, constrains and / or capital market expectations. Rebalancing the portfolio when necessary by repeating the asset allocation, portfolio strategy and security selection.
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Larger portfolio returns come only with larger portfolio risk. The most important decision to make is the amount of risk which is acceptable. The risk associated with a security type depends on when the investment will be liquidated. Risk is reduced by selecting securities with a payoff close to when the portfolio is to be liquidated..
Provides user interfaces that allow for the extraction of data based on user defined parameters.
Provides a comprehensive set of tools to perform portfolio and risk evaluation against parameters set within the risk framework.
Provides a set of tools to optimise portfolio value and risk position by: Considering various legs of different contracts to create an optimal trading strategy.
The calculation of residual purchase requirements. Performs analysis that provides the relevant information to create hedge and trade plans.
Performs analysis on current and potential trades. Evaluates the best mix of contracts on offer from counterparties to minimise the overall purchase cost and maximize profits.
Creates and maintains trading and hedge strategies by: Allocating trades to contracts and books. Maintaining trades against contracts and books. Reviewing trades against existing trading strategy. Maintains an audit trail of decisions taken and query resolution. Produces accurate and timely reports
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Which technologies and product candidates have the greatest potential commercial value?
How can we broaden and deepen our therapy penetration? What actions can we take to maximize return on investment for individual candidates and discoveries?
Which proprietary rights do we buy, co-market, license, or sell? How do we balance short and long term product needs to maximize therapeutic franchise value?
We detail the value of discoveries in clinical phases, candidates in the pipeline, and products on the market. These individual and therapeutic category evaluations enable executives to make strategic investment, licensing and prioritization decisions to realize their portfolio's full potential.
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Portfolio Management
you can now receive the same portfolio management services as many institutional investors-whether it is a separately managed account or a mutual fund wrap portfolio. Some benefits of managed portfolios include: 1. Providing access to top-tier investment management professionals 2. Tailored portfolios to meet specific investment needs 3. Ownership of individual securities 4. Ease of pre-designed mutual fund portfolios
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Every investor is unique, and investment advisory services provide you with professional investment advice and a personalized investment strategy. Whether you're seeking a tailored, professionally managed portfolio, or the convenience and simplicity of a diversified mutual fund wrap program, your investment choice should focus on meeting your financial goals. During this process, you should consider current and future growth objectives, income needs, time horizon and risk tolerance. These considerations form the blueprint for developing a portfolio management strateg. The process involves, but is not limited to, the following important stages.
Set investment objectives Develop an asset allocation strategy Evaluate/Select investment vehicle Portfolio review -- Ongoing portfolio monitoring
Portfolio Management Maturity Summarizes five levels of project portfolio management maturity .each level represents the adoption of an increasingly comprehensive and effective subset of related solutions discussed in the previous parts of this 6-part paper for addressing the reasons that organizations choose the wrong projects. Understanding organizational maturity with regard to project portfolio management is useful. The fact that five maturity levels have been identified is not meant to suggest that all organizations ought to strive for top-level performance. Each organization needs to determine what level of performance is reasonable at the current time based on business needs, resources available for engineering change, and organizational
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ability to accept change. Experience shows that achieving high levels of performance typically takes several years. It is difficult to leap-frog several steps at once. Making progress is what counts.
Five levels of project portfolio management. The detailed definitions of the levels, provided below, are not precise. Real organizations will tend to be more advanced with regard to some characteristics and less advanced relative to others. For most organizations, though, it is easy to pick one of the levels as characterizing the current maturity of project portfolio management performance.
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Level 1: Foundation Level 1 organizes work into discrete projects and tracks costs at the project level.
Project decisions are made project-by-project without adherence to formal project selection criteria.
The portfolio concept may be recognized, but portfolio data are not centrally managed and/or not regularly refreshed.
Roles and responsibilities have not been defined or are generic, and no valuecreation framework has been established.
Only rarely are business case analyses conducted for projects, and the quality is often poor.
Project proposals reference business benefits generally, but estimates are nearly always qualitative rather than quantitative.
There is little or no formal balancing between the supply and demand for project resources, and there is little if any coordination of resources across projects, which often results in resource conflicts.
Over-commitment of resources is common. There may be a growing recognition that risks need to be managed, but there is little real management of risk.
Level 1 organizations are not yet benefiting from project portfolio management, but they are motivated to address the relevant problems and have the minimum foundation in place to begin building project portfolio management capability. At this level, organizations should focus on establishing consistent, repeatable processes for project scheduling, resource assignment, time tracking, and general project oversight and support.
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Level 2: Basics Level 2 replaces project-by-project decision making with the goal of identifying the best collection of projects to be conducted within the resources available. At a minimum this requires aggregating project data into a central database, assigning responsibilities for project portfolio management, and force-ranking projects.
Redundant projects are identified and eliminated or merged. Business cases are conducted for larger projects, although quality may be inconsistent.
Individual departments may be establishing structures to oversee and coordinate their projects.
Planning is mostly activity scheduling with limited performance forecasting. There are attempts to quantify some non-financial benefits, but estimates are mostly "guestimates" generated without the aid of standard techniques.
Overlap and double counting of benefits between projects is common. Ongoing projects are still rarely terminated based on poor performance. The PPM tools being used may have good data display and management capabilities.
Portfolio data has an established refresh cycle or is regularly accessed and updated. Resource requirements at the portfolio level are recognized but not systematically managed.
Knowledge sharing is local and ad hoc. Risk analysis may be conducted early in projects but is not maintained as a continual management processSchedule and cost overruns are still common, and the risks of project failure remain large.
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Level 2 organizations are beginning to implement project portfolio management, but most of the opportunity has not yet been realized. The focus should be on formalizing the framework for evaluating and prioritizing projects and on implementing tools and processes for supporting project budgeting, risk and issues tracking, requirements tracking, and resource management. Level 3: Value Management Level 3, the most difficult step for most organizations, requires metrics, models, and tools for quantifying the value to be derived from projects. Although project interdependencies and portfolio risks may not be fully and rigorously addressed, analysis allows projects to be ranked based on "bang-for-the-buck," often producing a good approximation of the value-maximizing project portfolio.
The principles of portfolio management are widely understood and accepted. The project portfolio has a well-defined perimeter, with clear demarcation and understanding of what it contains and does not contain.
Portfolio management processes are centrally defined and well documented, as are roles and responsibility for governance and delivery.
. Plans are developed to a consistent standard and are outcome- or value-based. Effective estimation techniques are being used within planning and a range of project alternatives are routinely considered.
Data quality assurance processes are in place and independent reviews are conducted.
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Project dependencies are identified, tracked, and managed. Decisions are made with the aid of a tool based on a defensible logic for computing project value that generates the efficient frontier.
Portfolio data are kept up-to-date and audit trails are maintained. Costs, expenditures and forecasts are monitored at the portfolio level in accordance with established guidelines and procedures.
Interfaces with financial and other related functions within the organization have been defined.
Level 3 organizations demonstrate a commitment to proactive, standardized project and project portfolio management. They are achieving significant return from their investment, although more value is available. Level 4: Optimization Level 4 is characterized by mature processes, superior analytics, and quantitatively managed behavior.
Tools for optimizing the project portfolio correctly and fully account for project risks and interdependencies.
The business processes of value creation have been modeled and measurement data is collected to validate and refine the model.
The model is the basis for the logic for estimating project value, prioritizing projects, making project funding and resource allocation decisions, and optimizing the project portfolio.
The organization's tolerance for risk is known, and used to guide decisions that determine the balance of risk and benefit across the portfolio.
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External risks are monitored and evaluated as part of the investment management process and common risks across the whole portfolio.
There is likely to be an established training program to develop the skills and knowledge of individuals so that they can more readily perform their designated roles.
An extensive range of communications channels and techniques are used for collaboration and stakeholder management.
High-level reports on key aspects of portfolio are regularly delivered to executives and the information is used to inform strategic decision making.
There is trend reporting on progress, actual and projected cost, value, and level of risk.
Level 4 organizations are using quantitative analysis and measurements to obtain efficient predictable and controllable project and project portfolio management. They are obtaining the bulk of the value available from practicing project portfolio management. Level 5: Core Competency Level 5 occurs when the organization has made project portfolio management a core competency, uses best-practice analytic tools, and has put processes in place for continuous learning and improvement.
Portfolio management processes are proven and project decisions, including project funding levels and timing, are routinely made based the value maximization value.
Processes are continually refined to take into account increasing knowledge, changing business needs, and external factors.
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High levels of competence are embedded in all portfolio management roles, and portfolio management skills are seen as important for career advancement.
Portfolio gate reviews are used to proactively assess and manage portfolio value and risk.
Portfolio
management
informs
future
capacity
demands,
capability
Information is highly valued, and the organization's ability to mitigate external risks and grasp opportunities is enhanced by identifying innovative ways to acquire and better share knowledge.
Benefits management processes are embedded across the organization, with benefits realization explicitly aligned with the value measurement framework.
The portfolio is actively managed to ensure the long term sustainability of the enterprise.
The relationship between the portfolio and strategic planning is understood and managed.
Resource allocations to and from projects are intimately aligned so as the maximize value creation.
Level 5 organizations are obtaining maximum possible value from project portfolio management. By fully institutionalizing project portfolio management into their culture they free people to become more creative and innovative in achieving business success. Building Project Portfolio Management Maturity Experience shows that building project portfolio management maturity takes time. As suggested by, significant short-term performance gains can be achieved, but making
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step changes requires understanding current weaknesses and the commitment of effort and resources.
Step changes can be made, but achieving high levels of maturity typically takes years
continuous job of the portfolio manager. A good analyst makes a good financial consultant. The analyst can know the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities of the economy, industry and the company.
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3. MARKETING SKILLS: He must be good salesman. He has to convince the clients about the particular security. He has to compete with the stock brokers in the stock market. In this context, the marketing skills help him a lot.
4. EXPERIENCE: In the cyclical behavior of the stock market history is often repeated, therefore the experience of the different phases helps to make rational decisions. The experience of the different types of securities, clients, market trends, etc., makes a perfect professional manager.
PORTFOLIO BUILDING:
Portfolio decisions for an individual investor are influenced by a wide variety of factors. Individuals differ greatly in their circumstances and therefore, a financial programme well suited to one individual may be inappropriate for another. Ideally, an individuals portfolio should be tailor-made to fit ones individual needs. Investors Characteristics: An analysis of an individuals investment situation requires a study of personal characteristics such as age, health conditions, personal habits, family responsibilities, business or professional situation, and tax status, all of which affect the investors willingness to assume risk.
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Family responsibilities: The investors marital status and his responsibilities towards other members of the family can have a large impact on his investment needs and goals. Investors experience: The success of portfolio depends upon the investors knowledge and experience in financial matters. If an investor has an aptitude for financial affairs, he may wish to be more aggressive in his investments. Attitude towards Risk: A persons psychological make-up and financial position dictate his ability to assume the risk. Different kinds of securities have different kinds of risks. The higher the risk, the greater the opportunity for higher gain or loss.
Liquidity Needs: Liquidity needs vary considerably among individual investors. Investors with regular income from other sources may not worry much about instantaneous liquidity, but individuals who depend heavily upon investment for meeting their general or specific needs, must plan portfolio to match their liquidity needs. Liquidity can be obtained in two ways: 1. By allocating an appropriate percentage of the portfolio to bank deposits, and 2. By requiring that bonds and equities purchased be highly marketable. Tax consirerations: Since different individuals, depending upon their incomes, are subjected to different marginal rates of taxes, tax considerations become most important factor in
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individuals portfolio strategy. There are differing tax treatments for investment in various kinds of assets. Time Horizon: In investment planning, time horizon becomes an important consideration. It is highly variable from individual to individual. Individuals in their young age have long time horizon for planning, they can smooth out and absorb the ups and downs of risky combination. Individuals who are old have smaller time horizon, they generally tend to avoid volatile portfolios. Individuals Financial Objectives: In the initial stages, the primary objective of an individual could be to accumulate wealth via regular monthly savings and have an investment programmed to achieve long term capital gains.
Safety of Principal: The protection of the rupee value of the investment is of prime importance to most investors. The original investment can be recovered only if the security can be readily sold in the market without much loss of value. Assurance of Income: `Different investors have different current income needs. If an individual is dependent of its investment income for current consumption then income received now in the form of dividend and interest payments become primary objective. Investment Risk: All investment decisions revolve around the trade-off between risk and return. All rational investors want a substantial return from their investment. An ability to understand, measure and properly manage investment risk is fundamental to any
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intelligent investor or a speculator. Frequently, the risk associated with security investment is ignored and only the rewards are emphasized. An investor who does not fully appreciate the risks in security investments will find it difficult to obtain continuing positive results.
Risk is measured along the horizontal axis and increases from the left to right. Expected rate of return is measured on the vertical axis and rises from bottom to top. The line from 0 to R (f) is called the rate of return or risk less investments commonly associated with the yield on government securities.
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The diagonal line form R (f) to E(r) illustrates the concept of expected rate of return increasing as level of risk increases.
TYPES OF RISKS:
Risk consists of two components. They are 1. Systematic Risk 2. Un-systematic Risk 1. Systematic Risk: Systematic risk is caused by factors external to the particular company and uncontrollable by the company. The systematic risk affects the market as a whole. Factors affect the systematic risk are economic conditions political conditions sociological changes The systematic risk is unavoidable. Systematic risk is further sub-divided into three types. They are a) Market Risk b) Interest Rate Risk c) Purchasing Power Risk a). Market Risk One would notice that when the stock market surges up, most stocks post higher price. On the other hand, when the market falls sharply, most common stocks will drop. It is not uncommon to find stock prices falling from time to time while a companys earnings are rising and vice-versa. The price of stock may fluctuate widely within a short time even though earnings remain unchanged or relatively stable.
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b). Interest Rate Risk: Interest rate risk is the risk of loss of principal brought about the changes in the interest rate paid on new securities currently being issued.
c). Purchasing Power Risk: The typical investor seeks an investment which will give him current income and / or capital appreciation in addition to his original investment.
2. Un-systematic Risk: Un-systematic risk is unique and peculiar to a firm or an industry. The nature and mode of raising finance and paying back the loans, involve the risk element. Financial leverage of the companies that is debt-equity portion of the companies differs from each other. All these factors affect the un-systematic risk and contribute a portion in the total variability of the return. Managerial inefficiently Technological change in the production process Availability of raw materials Changes in the consumer preference Labor problems The nature and magnitude of the above mentioned factors differ from industry to industry and company to company. They have to be analyzed separately for each industry and firm. Un-systematic risk can be broadly classified into: a) Business Risk b) Financial Risk
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a. Business Risk: Business risk is that portion of the unsystematic risk caused by the operating environment of the business. Business risk arises from the inability of a firm to maintain its competitive edge and growth or stability of the earnings. The volatility in stock prices due to factors intrinsic to the company itself is known as Business risk. Business risk is concerned with the difference between revenue and earnings before interest and tax. Business risk can be divided into. i). Internal Business Risk Internal business risk is associated with the operational efficiency of the firm. The operational efficiency differs from company to company. The efficiency of operation is reflected on the companys achievement of its pre-set goals and the fulfillment of the promises to its investors. ii).External Business Risk External business risk is the result of operating conditions imposed on the firm by circumstances beyond its control. The external environments in which it operates exert some pressure on the firm. The external factors are social and regulatory factors, monetary and fiscal policies of the government, business cycle and the general economic environment within which a firm or an industry operates. b. Financial Risk: It refers to the variability of the income to the equity capital due to the debt capital. Financial risk in a company is associated with the capital structure of the company. Capital structure of the company consists of equity funds and borrowed funds.
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS:
Various groups of securities when held together behave in a different manner and give interest payments and dividends also, which are different to the analysis of individual securities. A combination of securities held together will give a beneficial
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result if they are grouped in a manner to secure higher return after taking into consideration the risk element. There are two approaches in construction of the portfolio of securities. They are Traditional approach Modern approach TRADITIONAL APPROACH: Traditional approach was based on the fact that risk could be measured on each individual security through the process of finding out the standard deviation and that security should be chosen where the deviation was the lowest. Traditional approach believes that the market is inefficient and the fundamental analyst can take advantage of the situation. Traditional approach is a comprehensive financial plan for the individual. It takes into account the individual need such as housing, life insurance and pension plans. Traditional approach basically deals with two major decisions. They are a) b) Determining the objectives of the portfolio Selection of securities to be included in the portfolio
MODERN APPROACH:
Modern approach theory was brought out by Markowitz and Sharpe. It is the combination of securities to get the most efficient portfolio. Combination of securities can be made in many ways. Markowitz developed the theory of diversification through scientific reasoning and method. Modern portfolio theory believes in the maximization of return through a combination of securities. The modern approach discusses the relationship between different securities and then draws interrelationships of risks between them. Markowitz gives more attention to the process of selecting the portfolio. It does not deal with the individual needs.
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ASSUMPTIONS:
All investors would like to earn the maximum rate of return that they can achieve from their investments. All investors have the same expected single period investment horizon.
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All investors before making any investments have a common goal. This is the avoidance of risk because Investors are risk-averse. Investors base their investment decisions on the expected return and standard deviation of returns from a possible investment. Perfect markets are assumed (e.g. no taxes and no transition costs) The investor can reduce his risk if he adds investments to his portfolio. An investor should be able to get higher return for each level of risk by determining the efficient set of securities. An individual seller or buyer cannot affect the price of a stock. This assumption is the basic assumption of the perfectly competitive market. Investors make their decisions only on the basis of the expected returns, standard deviation and covariances of all pairs of securities. Investors are assumed to have homogenous expectations during the decisionmaking period The investor can lend or borrow any amount of funds at the risk less rate of interest. The risk less rate of interest is the rate of interest offered for the treasury bills or Government securities. Investors are risk-averse, so when given a choice between two otherwise identical portfolios, they will choose the one with the lower standard deviation. Individual assets are infinitely divisible, meaning that an investor can buy a fraction of a share if he or she so desires. There is a risk free rate at which an investor may either lend (i.e. invest) money or borrow money. There is no transaction cost i.e. no cost involved in buying and selling of stocks. There is no personal income tax. Hence, the investor is indifferent to the form of return either capital gain or dividend.
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Rf Rm = Risk free rate of return = Return on risky assets
Formula can be used to calculate the expected returns for different situations, like mixing risk less assets with risky assets, investing only in the risky asset and mixing the borrowing with risky assets. THE CONCEPT: According to CAPM, all investors hold only the market portfolio and risk less securities. The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all stocks in the market. Each asset is held in proportion to its market value to the total value of all risky assets. For example, if wipro Industry share represents 15% of all risky assets, then the market portfolio of the individual investor contains 15% of wipro Industry shares. At this stage, the investor has the ability to borrow or lend any amount of money at the risk less rate of interest.
E.g.: assume that borrowing and lending rate to be 12.5% and the return from the risky assets to be 20%. There is a trade off between the expected return and risk. If an investor invests in risk free assets and risky assets, his risk may be less than what he invests in the risky asset alone. But if he borrows to invest in risky assets, his risk would increase more than he invests his own money in the risky assets. When he borrows to invest, we call it financial leverage. If he invests 50% in risk free assets and 50% in risky assets, his expected return of the portfolio would be
Rp= Rf Xf+ Rm(1- Xf) = (12.5 x 0.5) + 20 (1-0.5) = 6.25 + 10 = 16.25% if there is a zero investment in risk free asset and 100% in risky asset, the return is
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Rp= Rf Xf+ Rm(1- Xf) = 0 + 20% = 20% if -0.5 in risk free asset and 1.5 in risky asset, the return is Rp= Rf Xf+ Rm(1- Xf) = (12.5 x -0.5) + 20 (1.5) = -6.25+ 30 = 23.75%
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DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
CONSTRUCTION OF THE STUDY The purpose of the study is to find out at what percentage of investment should be invested between two companies on the basis of risk and return of each security in comparison. These percentages help in allocating the funds available for investment in risky portfolios.
IMPLEMENTATION OF STUDY For implementing the study, FOUR securities or stocks constituting the Sensex Market are selected of one month closing share movement prices data from Google finance dated from July-2010 to June-2011. Those are
1) ICICI
2) ITC
In order to know the risk & return of the stock or security, we use the different formulae which are given below.
COVARIANCE The way the security return returns vary with each other and affect the overall risk of the portfolio. If the rates of the returns of two securities move together, they interactive risk or covariance is positive. Inverse movements in returns result in negative covariance. If the rates of returns are independent, covariance is zero. The covariance between two securities of the X and Y may be calculated as under:
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( RA RA)( RB RB )
t 1
( RA RA)( RB RB )
n
CORRELATION Correlation coefficient is an pure measure of co movements between security returns. It varies from -1 to +1. If it is -1, it refers to perfect negative correlation and if it is +1, it refers to perfect positive correlation between the returns the securities.
)(
1 = n
( R R)
t 1
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PORTFOLIO WEIGHTS
It shows the proportion the investments, how much to invest to get maximum return to investor. The formula for calculation of portfolio weights is:
Xa = Xb = 1-Xa
RISK The risk of a portfolio, as measured by the standard deviation, is not simply the weighted average of the standard deviation of individual securities in the portfolio. The calculation of the standard deviation of a portfolio is little more difficult than calculation of expected return of a portfolio. In order to find out the risk of the portfolio, the riskiness of each security vis--vis the overall portfolio is to be considered. What is required is the incorporation of how the of a security move with the returns of other securities in the portfolio. An investigation into the interrelationship among the securities returns be made in order to
Calculate portfolio risk, and Reduce the portfolio risk to be minimum level.
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P ( X a )2 ( a )2 ( X b )2 ( b )2 2( X a ) ( X b ) (ab ) ( a ) ( b )
P
a
= Portfolio risk
RP X a R a
t a
Ra
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TABLE: 4.1 ICICI DATE
29-07-11 01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
SHARE PRICE
1,038.30 1,040.00 1,025.00 1,006.50 991.00 975.00 954.15 938.00 964.60 942.00 938.70 940.00 912.50 863.15 838.00 852.80 851.00 833.90 836.55 819.20 860.25 875.50
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SHARE PRICE 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 SHARE PRICE
29 -0 711 02 -0 811 04 -0 811 08 -0 811 10 -0 811 12 -0 811 17 -0 811 19 -0 811 23 -0 811 25 -0 811 29 -0 811
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TABLE: 4.2 ITC
DATE 29-07-11 01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11 SHARE PRICE 208.30 208.90 204.70 206.55 200.00 196.50 194.95 199.70 197.40 198.35 198.30 200.00 204.10 203.35 198.85 202.45 202.65 201.90 202.35 196.85 201.95 200.00
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SHARE PRICE 210 205 200 SHARE PRICE 195 190 185
29 -0 711 02 -0 811 04 -0 811 08 -0 811 10 -0 811 12 -0 811 17 -0 811 19 -0 811 23 -0 811 25 -0 811 29 -0 811
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SHARE PRICE 1,850.00 1,800.00 1,750.00 SHARE PRICE 1,700.00 1,650.00 1,600.00
29 -0 711 02 -0 811 04 -0 811 08 -0 811 10 -0 811 12 -0 811 17 -0 811 19 -0 811 23 -0 811 25 -0 811 29 -0 811
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SHARE PRICE 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 370 360 350
SHARE PRICE
29 -0 711 02 -0 811 04 -0 811 08 -0 811 10 -0 811 12 -0 811 17 -0 811 19 -0 811 23 -0 811 25 -0 811 29 -0 811
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CALCULATION OF MEAN AND STANDARDDEVIATION
TABLE: 4.5 ICICI DATE Share price
RETURN
R
MEAN
DEV
SQ DEV
RR
( R R) 2
29-07-11 01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
1,038.30 1,040.00 1,025.00 1,006.50 991.00 975.00 954.15 938.00 964.60 942.00 938.70 940.00 912.50 863.15 838.00 852.80 851.00 833.90 836.55 819.20 860.25 875.50 0.16 -1.46 -1.84 -1.56 -1.64 -2.19 -1.72 2.76 -2.40 -0.35 0.14 -3.01 -5.72 3.00 1.74 -0.21 -2.05 0.32 -2.11 4.77 1.74 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 -0.5538 0.71 -0.91 -1.29 -1.01 -1.09 -1.64 -1.17 3.31 -1.85 0.20 0.69 -2.46 -5.17 3.55 2.29 0.34 -1.50 0.87 -1.56 5.32 2.29 0.50 0.83 1.66 1.02 1.19 2.69 1.97 10.96 3.42 0.04 0.48 6.05 26.73 12.60 5.24 0.12 2.22 0.76 2.43 28.30 5.24 Page 69
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TOTAL
-11.63 113.85
Mean=
= -11.63/21 = -0.5538
1 n
Variance =
) =1/22(113.85)= 5.42
= 5.18=2.27
Standard Deviation =
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TABLE: 4. 6 ITC
DATE Share price
RETURN
R
MEAN
DEV
SQ DEV
( R R) 2
R
-.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138 -.2138
RR
0.50 -2.35 1.11 -3.06 -1.57 -0.82 2.59 -0.96 0.69 0.19 1.06 2.21 -0.16 -2.06 2.00 0.31 -0.16 0.43 -2.59 2.74 -0.76
29-07-11 01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
208.30 208.90 204.70 206.55 200.00 196.50 194.95 199.70 197.40 198.35 198.30 200.00 204.10 203.35 198.85 202.45 202.65 201.90 202.35 196.85 201.95 200.00 0.29 -2.65 0.90 -3.27 -1.78 -1.03 2.38 -1.17 0.48 -0.02 0.85 2.00 -0.37 -2.27 1.78 0.10 -0.37 0.22 -2.80 2.53 -0.97 -4.49 0.25 5.52 1.23 9.36 2.46 0.67 6.71 0.92 0.48 0.03 1.12 4.88 0.02 4.24 4.00 0.09 0.02 0.18 6.71 7.51 0.58 56.98
TOTAL
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Mean =
= -4.49/21 = -0.2138
1 n
Variance =
) =1/21(56.98)= 2.71
= 2.71 =1.67
Standard Deviation =
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TABLE: 4.7 BHEL
DATE Share price
RETURN R
MEAN
DEV
SQ DEV
R
-0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023 -0.2023
RR
-0.53 -0.38 0.02 -1.08 -4.00 -0.04 1.34 3.29 -0.85 -1.78 2.50 0.75 -0.51 -4.65 2.11 2.78 -0.40 0.23 -0.67 1.97 0.21
( R R) 2
29-07-11 01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
1,838.35 1,824.95 1,814.45 1,811.05 1,788.05 1,716.00 1,711.85 1,731.50 1,780.65 1,762.05 1,727.90 1,767.70 1,777.50 1,764.95 1,683.25 1,716.00 1,761.50 1,751.05 1,751.60 1,736.50 1,767.85 1,767.70 -0.73 -0.58 -0.18 -1.28 -4.20 -0.24 -1.14 2.70 -1.05 -1.98 2.30 0.55 -0.71 -4.86 1.91 2.58 -0.60 0.03 -0.87 1.77 -0.01 -4.25 0.28 0.14 0.00 1.66 16 0.00 1.80 10.82 0.72 3.17 6.25 0.56 0.26 21.62 4.45 7.73 0.16 0.05 0.45 3.88 0.04
TOTAL
80.04
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Mean=
= -4.25/21 = -0.2023
1 n
Variance =
) =1/21(80.04) =3.81
= 3.81= 1.95
Standard Deviation =
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TABLE: 4.8 BHARATI TELEVENTURES
DATE Share price
RETURN
R
MEAN
DEV
SQ DEV
( R R) 2
R
-0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814 -0.3814
RR
1.12 -1.52 -0.86 -0.40 -1.59 -1.22 0.01 0.34 -2.19 -1.62 2.08 0.56 -0.89 -1.77 2.98 2.34 -0.75 1.55 -0.38 1.89 0.22
29-07-11 01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
437.0 440.25 432.05 426.75 423.40 415.15 408.60 407.10 406.95 397.10 389.30 396.05 396.75 391.75 383.50 393.75 401.60 397.10 401.80 398.75 404.85 404.20 0.74 -1.90 -1.24 -0.79 -1.98 -1.60 -0.37 -0.04 -2.48 -2.00 1.70 0.18 -1.27 -2.15 2.00 1.96 -1.13 1.17 -0.76 1.51 0.16 -8.01 1.25 2.31 0.74 0.16 2.53 1.49 0.00 0.12 4.80 2.62 4.33 0.31 0.79 3.13 8.88 5.48 0.56 2.40 0.14 3.57 0.04 45.65
TOTAL
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Mean=
= -8.01/22 = -0.3814
1 n
Variance =
) =1/21(45.65) = 2.17
= 2.17 = 1.47
Standard Deviation =
MEAN
VARIANCE
STANDARD DEVIATION
BHARATI TELEVENTURES
-0.3814
2.17
1.47
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INTERPRETION; In the above diagram shows the all four scripts means, variance, standard deviations, all scripts means are negative due to down trend to Indian economy.
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TABLE: 4.10
ICICI
0.71 -0.91 -1.29 -1.01 -1.09 -1.64 -1.17 3.31 -1.85 0.20 0.69 -2.46 -5.17 3.55 2.29 0.34 -1.50 0.87 -1.56 5.32 2.29
ITC
0.50 -2.35 1.11 -3.06 -1.57 -0.82 2.59 -0.96 0.69 0.19 1.06 2.21 -0.16 -2.06 2.00 0.31 -0.16 0.43 -2.59 2.74 -0.76
COMBINED DEV
0.35 2.14 -1.43 3.09 1.71 1.34 -3.03 -3.18 -1.28 0.03 0.73 -5.44 0.83 -7.31 4.58 0.10 0.24 0.37 4.04 14.58 -1.74
10.72
TOTAL
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)(
= 1/21(10.72) =0.51 =
( )( )
CALCULATION OF PORTFOLIO WEIGHTS Wa = Where, =2.31 = 1.67 rab = 0.13 (1.67)2-(0.13)(1.67)(2.31) = ---------------------------------------------------(2.31)2+ (1.67)2-2(0.13)(1.67)(2.31)
MBA PROGRAMME
CALCULATION OF RISK p = Where a =2.31; b =1.67; Wa=0.28; Wb =0.72; rab =0.13; a2*Wa2 + b2*Wb2 + 2rab*a*b*WA*Wb
(2.31)2*(0.28)2+(1.67)2(0.72)2+2(0.13)( 2.31)(1.67)(0.28)(0.72)
(5.34)(0.08)+((2.79)(0.52)+0.26(3.86)(0.18)
0.43+1.45+0.18
= =
2.06 1.43
CALCULATION OF RETURN PR= (Xa*Wa) + (Xb*Wb) Where, Xa = -0.5538, Xb =-0.2138, Wa = 0.28, Wb = 0.72 = (-0.5538)( 0.28)+( -0.2138)( 0.72) = -0.15+-0.15 = -0.30.
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TABLE : 4.11
DATE
01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
ITC
0.50 -2.35 1.11 -3.06 -1.57 -0.82 2.59 -0.96 0.69 0.19 1.06 2.21 -0.16 -2.06 2.00 0.31 -0.16 0.43 -2.59 2.74 -0.76
BHEL
-0.53 -0.38 0.02 -1.08 -4.00 -0.04 1.34 3.29 -0.85 -1.78 2.50 0.75 -0.51 -4.65 2.11 2.78 -0.40 0.23 -0.67 1.97 0.21
COMBINED DEV
-0.26 0.89 0.02 3.30 6.28 0.03 3.47 -3.16 -0.59 -0.34 2.65 1.66 0.08 9.58 4.22 0.86 0.06 0.10 1.73 5.40 0.16
44.84
TOTAL
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CO-VARIANCE (COV AB) = ( )( )
= 1/21(44.84) =2.13
=(
)(
3.80-2.12 = -------------------------2.79+3.80-2.76
MBA PROGRAMME
Wb = 1 - Wa =1 O.44
= 0.56
CALCULATION OF RISK p = Where a =1.67; b =1.95; Wa=0.44; Wb =0.56; rab =0.65; a2*Wa2 + b2*Wb2 + 2rab*a*b*WA*Wb
= =
(1.67)2(0.44)2+(1.95)2(0.56)2+2(0.65)(1.67)(1.95)(0.44)(0.56) (2.79)(0.88)+(3.80)(0.31)+1.3(2.12)(0.25)
2.45+1.18+1.3(0.53)
= =
4.32 2.08
CALCULATION OF RETURN Where, Xa = -0.2138, Xb =-0.2023, Wa = 0.44, Wb = 0.56 = (-0.2138)(0.44)+( -0.2023)(0.56) = -0.09+-0.11 = -0.2.
NARASARAOPETA ENGINEERING COLLEGE Page 83
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CORRELATION BETWEEN BHEL & BHARATI TELEVENTURES
TABLE :4.12
DATE
01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
BHEL
-0.53 -0.38 0.02 -1.08 -4.00 -0.04 1.34 3.29 -0.85 -1.78 2.50 0.75 -0.51 -4.65 2.11 2.78 -0.40 0.23 -0.67 1.97 0.21
BHARATI TELEVENTURES
1.12 -1.52 -0.86 -0.40 -1.59 -1.22 0.01 0.34 -2.19 -1.62 2.08 0.56 -0.89 -1.77 2.98 2.34 -0.75 1.55 -0.38 1.89 0.22
COMBINED DEV
-0.59 0.58 -0.02 0.43 -6.36 0.05 0.01 1.12 1.79 -2.88 5.20 0.42 0.45 8.23 6.29 6.50 0.30 0.36 0.25 3.72 0.05
25.90
TOTAL
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CO-VARIANCE (COV AB) = ( )( )
= 1/21(25.90) =1.23
=(
)(
Page 85
MBA PROGRAMME
Wb = 1 - Wa = 1 O.26 = 0.74
CALCULATION OF RISK p = Where a =1.95; b =1.47; Wa=0.26; Wb =0.74; rab =0.74; a2*Wa2 + b2*Wb2 + 2rab*a*b*WA*Wb
(1.95)2(0.26)2+(1.47)2(0.74)2+2(0.74)(1.95)(1.47)(0.26)(0.74)
(3.80)(0.07)+(2.16)(0.55)+0.88(2.87)(0.19)
= =
0.27+1.19+0.47 1.93
1.39
CALCULATION OF RETURN Where, Xa = -0.2023, Xb =--0.3814, Wa = 0.26, Wb = 0.74 = (-0.2023)(0.26)+( --0.3814)(0.74) = -0.05+-0.28 = -0.33.
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CORRELATION BETWEEN ICICI & BHEL
TABLE :4.13 DATE
01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
ICICI
0.71 -0.91 -1.29 -1.01 -1.09 -1.64 -1.17 3.31 -1.85 0.20 0.69 -2.46 -5.17 3.55 2.29 0.34 -1.50 0.87 -1.56 5.32 2.29
BHEL
-0.53 -0.38 0.02 -1.08 -4.00 -0.04 1.34 3.29 -0.85 -1.78 2.50 0.75 -0.51 -4.65 2.11 2.78 -0.40 0.23 -0.67 1.97 0.21
COMBINED DEV
-0.38 0.35 -0.02 1.09 4.36 0.06 -1.57 10.89 1.57 0.36 1.72 -1.46 -2.64 -16.19 4.83 0.94 0.60 0.20 1.04 10.48 0.48
21.61
TOTAL
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CO-VARIANCE (COV AB) = ( )( )
= 1/21(21.61) =1.03
=(
)(
Page 88
MBA PROGRAMME
Wb = 1 - Wa = 1 O.39 = 0.61
CALCULATION OF RISK p = Where a =2.31; b =1.95; Wa=0.39; Wb =0.61; rab =0.23; Xa=-11.63; Xb=-4.25 = (2.31)2(0.39)2+(1.95)2(0.69)2+2(0.23)(2.31)(1.95)(0.39)(0.61) a2*Wa2 + b2*Wb2 + 2rab*a*b*WA*Wb
(5.34)(0.15)+(3.80)(0.37)+0.46(4.50)(0.24)
= =
0.80+1.41+0.50 2.71
1.65
CALCULATION OF RETURN Where, Xa = -0.5538, Xb =-0.2023, Wa = 0.39, Wb = 0.61 = (-0.5538)(0.39)+(- 0.2023)(0.61) = -0.21+-0.12 = -0.33.
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CORRELATION BETWEEN ICICI &BHARATI TELEVENTURES
TABLE :4.14
DATE
01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
ICICI
0.71 -0.91 -1.29 -1.01 -1.09 -1.64 -1.17 3.31 -1.85 0.20 0.69 -2.46 -5.17 3.55 2.29 0.34 -1.50 0.87 -1.56 5.32 2.29
BHARATI TELEVENTURES
1.12 -1.52 -0.86 -0.40 -1.59 -1.22 0.01 0.34 -2.19 -1.62 2.08 0.56 -0.89 -1.77 2.98 2.34 -0.75 1.55 -0.38 1.89 0.22
COMBINED DEV
0.80 1.42 1.11 0.40 1.73 2.00 0.01 1.06 3.88 -0.32 1.43 -1.38 4.60 -6.28 6.82 0.79 1.11 1.35 0.59 10.05 0.50
29.71
TOTAL
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CO-VARIANCE (COV AB) = ( )( )
= 1/2(29.71) =1.41
=(
)(
(1.47)2-(0.41)(1.47)(2.31) = ---------------------------------------------------(2.31)2+ (1.47)2-2(0.41)(1.47)(2.31) 2.16 1.39 = -------------------------7.5 2.78 0.77 = -------------4.72 =0.16
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Wb = 1 - Wa = 1 (0.16) = 0.84
CALCULATION OF RISK p = Where a =2.31; b =1.47; Wa= 0.16; Wb =0.84; rab =0.41; a2*Wa2 + b2*Wb2 + 2rab*a*b*WA*Wb
(2.31)2(0.16)2+(1.47)2(0.86)2+2(0.41)(2.31)(1.47)(0.16)(0.84)
(5.34)(0.03)+(2.16)(0.69)+0.82(3.39)(0.13)
= =
0.16+1.49+0.36 2.01
1.42
CALCULATION OF RETURN Where, Xa = -0.5538, Xb =-0.3814, Wa = 0.16., Wb = 0.86 = (-0.5538)(0.16)+(- 0.3814)(0.84) = -0.09+-0.32 = -0.41.
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MBA PROGRAMME
CORRELATION BETWEEN ITC&BHARATI TELEVENTURES
TABLE :4.15
DATE
01-08-11 02-08-11 03-08-11 04-08-11 05-08-11 08-08-11 09-08-11 10-08-11 11-08-11 12-08-11 16-08-11 17-08-11 18-08-11 19-08-11 22-08-11 23-08-11 24-08-11 25-08-11 26-08-11 29-08-11 31-08-11
ITC
0.50 -2.35 1.11 -3.06 -1.57 -0.82 2.59 -0.96 0.69 0.19 1.06 2.21 -0.16 -2.06 2.00 0.31 -0.16 0.43 -2.59 2.74 -0.76
BHARATI TELEVENTURES
1.12 -1.52 -0.86 -0.40 -1.59 -1.22 0.01 0.34 -2.19 -1.62 2.08 0.56 -0.89 -1.77 2.98 2.34 -0.75 1.55 -0.38 1.89 0.22
COMBINED DEV
0.56 3.67 -0.95 1.22 2.50 1.00 0.02 -0.31 -1.50 -0.31 2.26 1.23 0.14 3.65 5.96 0.72 0.12 0.67 0.98 5.18 -0.17
26.64
TOTAL
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CO-VARIANCE (COV AB) = ( )( )
= 1/21(26.64) =1.27
=(
)(
(1.47)2-(0.52)(1.47)(1.67) = ---------------------------------------------------(1.67)2+ (1.47)2-2(0.52)(1.47)(1.67) 2.16 1.27 = -------------------------4.95 2.55 0.89 = -------------2.4 =0.37
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MBA PROGRAMME
Wb = 1 - Wa = 1 (0.37) = 0.63
CALCULATION OF RISK p = Where a =1.67; b =1.47; Wa= 0.37; Wb =0.67; rab =0.52; a2*Wa2 + b2*Wb2 + 2rab*a*b*WA*Wb
(1.67)2(0.37)2+(1.47)2(0.63)2+2(0.52)(1.67)(1.47)(0.23)(0.67)
(2.79)(0.14)+(2.16)(0.40)+1.04(2.45)(0.23)
= =
0.39+0.86+0.58 1.83
1.35
CALCULATION OF RETURN Where, Xa = -0.2138, Xb =-0.3814, Wa = 0.37., Wb = 0.63 = (-0.2138)(0.37)+(- 0.3814)(0.63) = -0.08+-0.24 = -0.32.
NARASARAOPETA ENGINEERING COLLEGE Page 95
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RISK, RETURN WITH DIFFERENT COMBINATIONS
TABLE:4.16
PORTFOLIO
ICICI ITC & ITC & BHEL
RISK
1.43 2.08 1.39
RETURNS
-0.30 -0.20 -0.33
1.65 1.42
-0.33 -0.41
1.35
-0.32
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RISK&RETURN
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1
RISK RETURNS
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FINDINGS
1. It was found that from the study, all the selected four scripts means are negative. This was due to drown trend in the economy. 2. Among the four selected scripts BHEL has high mean, ICICI has low mean. 3. It was found that BHARATHI TELEVENTURE has low risk value and ICICI has high risk value. 4. Their was calculated six correlations between the two scripts. Their was found all correlations are positive. Their was highest positive correlation between ITC&BHEL. Their was lowest positive correlation between ICICI&ITC. 5. In the present study six portfolios were constructed all the six portfolios means are negative. Portfolio which has the lowest negative mean is good portfolio. The portfolio consists of ITC&BHEL scripts was good portfolio. 6. From the six portfolios it was found that the portfolio of
ITC&BHARATHITELEVENTURE has the lowest risk. 7. According to Markowitz portfolio theory, portfolio consists of
ITC&BHARATHITELEVENTURE was the optimal portfolio, which has low portfolio risk, it is also called minimum variance portfolio.
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SUGGESTIONS
1. Choosing the scripts is important. 2. Correlation is an important element while constructing the portfolio. 3. If the correlation high, we cant reduces the risk level for getting optimum return level. 4. Before going to portfolio construction one should check the constraint i.e. the correlation coefficient is less than the one or not, if it is les then one ,the combination of those two securities provides a lesser Standard Deviation of return than when either of the security is taken alone. 5. Investor should go for effective investment rather than random investment by using portfolio weight formula to gain maximum return among these combinations. 6. It is suggested that the diversification should neither be to large or to low. It should be an adequate diversification according to the size of the portfolio. 7. It is suggested to the investor that he should keep in his mind that the market psychology may be affected by tangible events or fictions. 8. It is suggested that the investor should go for an appropriate diversification towards reducing the risk.. Diversification of investments helps to spread risk in many securities. 9. Return is based on the scripts average return and its weights. So select the scripts which will give higher average return with lower risk level among different scripts. 10. The risk level is one of important factor in determination of portfolio. The risk affected by co-variance, standard deviation, correlation of two securities. 11. Choosing the securities, which are having negative correlation or lower correlation, will give maximum return with the optimal risk level.
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12. It is suggested to the investor that before going to investment, he should conduct the fundamental analysis i.e. economic analysis, industry and company analysis. 13. It is suggested that a portfolio should be constructed to meet the investors goals and objectives. The objective of every investor is to select portfolio that gives optimal return with low risk. 14. The following are the qualities for successful investing. Contrary thinking Patience Composure Flexibility Openness
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CONCLUSION
The objective of constructing a portfolio and revising it periodically is to earn maximum returns with minimum risk. Portfolio evaluation is the process which is concerned with assessing the performance of the portfolio over a selected period of time in terms of return and risk. This involves quantitative measurement of actual return realized and the risk borne by the portfolio over the period of investment. These have to be compared with objective norms to assess the relative performance of the portfolio. Alternative measures of performance evaluation have been developed for use by investors and portfolio managers. The portfolio management process is an ongoing process. It starts with security analysis, proceeds to portfolio construction, and continues with portfolio revision and evaluation. The evaluation provides the necessary feed back for designing a better portfolio next time. Superior performance is achieved through continual refinement of portfolio management skills.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
AUTHOR
YEAR 2006
S.Kevin
V.K.Bhalla
Investment Management
S.CHAND&COMPANY LIMITED
2010
Punithavathy Pandian
2011
2003
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