THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF ROBOTICS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) AND EXPERT SYSTEMS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

A TERM PAPER

WRITTEN BY: ZAKARIYA, N. I. REG.: 00-GM/ICT/00566/PE

DEPT. OF INFORMATION AND COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY

FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY OWERRI (FUTO), PORTHARCOURT EXTENSION

AUGUST 2001

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.0

DEFINITIONS

Lets start by defining the following key words; Robotics Artificial Intelligence Expert system

1.1

ROBOTICS

A robot is a programmable multifunction device designed to move material, parts, tools or specialized devices through variable programmed motions for the performance of variety of tasks. The term robot conjure up a vision of a mechanical man that is, some, android as viewed in star wars or other science fiction movies. The industrial robot are largely unstrained and defined by what we have so far managed to do with them. In the last decade, the industrial robot (IR) has developed from concept to reality and robots are now used in factories throughout the world. In lay terms, the industrial robot would be called a mechanical arm. This definition, however, includes almost all factory devices that have a moving lever. Its generally agreed that the three main components of robot are the mechanical manipulator, the actuation mechanism and the controller.

1.1.1

MECHANICAL MANIPULATOR

The mechanical manipulator of an industrial robot (IR) is made up of a set of axes (either rotatary or slide), Typically three to six per IR. The first three axes determine the work envelop of the IR. While the last three deals with the wrist of the IR and the ability to orient the hand. Many robots are more restricted in their motions than the sixaxis robot. Conversely, robots are sometimes mounted on extra axes such as an X-Y table or track to provide additional one or two axes. Its important to note at this point that the hand of the robot, which is typically a gripper or tool. Specifically designed for one or two application is not a part of a general purpose IR. Hands or end effectors, are special purpose devices attached to the wrist of an IR.

1.1.2

ACTUATION MECHANISM

The actuation mechanism of an IR is typically hydraulic, pneumatic or electric. More importance distinctions in capability are based on the ability to employ servomechanism, which use feedback control to correct mechanical position, as opposed to non-servo open-loop actuation systems. Surprisingly non-servo open loop industrial robots perform many seemingly complex tasks in todays factories.

1.1.3

CONTROLLER

The controller is the device that stores the IR program and by communication with the actuation mechanism controls the IR motions. IR controllers have undergone the most evolution as IRs have been introduced to the factory floor. The evolution has been in the method of programming (human interface) and in the complexity of the programs allowed.

1.2

SOCIAL IMPACT OF ROBOTICS ON THE PRODUCTION LINE

What is robotics on the production line? Robotics on the production line is the machines, which have been designed to manufacture products in factories. An example of this would be machines, which are used to join car parts in massive production. Prior to these machines the jobs would have been carried out by paid workers. This means that machinery used on the production line replaces many jobs, which would normally be carried out by paid labor workers.

1.2.1

THE SOCIAL IMPACT.

There are many social impact as a result of robotics on the production line. There are both positive and negative impacts. The social impacts include; Many previous employees loose their jobs as a result of being replaced by mechanics, creating an increase in social unemployment. Cheaper for companies to use robotics rather than employing workers. Cheaper to consumers because companies can produce in mass amounts and in a lot less time. Robotics produced products are generally higher in quality than other products.

CHAPTER TWO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2.0 What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

AI is a branch of computer science concerned with the study and creation of computer systems that exhibit some form of intelligence. System that can learn new concepts and tasks, system that can reason and draw useful conclusions about the world around us, system that can understand a natural language or perceive and comprehend a visual scene and systems that perform other types of feats that require human type of intelligence.

In short form, we can define AI in two ways. The first definition defines the field and the second describes some of its functions.

1. Artificial Intelligence Research. This is the part of computer science that is concerned with the symbol manipulation processes that produces the intelligent action. By intelligent action is meant an act of decision that is goal oriented, arrived at by an understandable chain of symbolic analysis and reasoning steps and is one in which knowledge of the world inform and guide the reasoning. 2. Artificial intelligent is a set of advanced computer software applicable to classes of non-deterministic problems such as natural language understanding, image understanding, expert systems, knowledge acquisition and representation, heuristic search, deductive reasoning and planning.

Fundamental issues in artificial intelligence that must be resolved Representing the knowledge needed to act intelligently Acquiring knowledge and explaining it effectively

Reasoning, drawing conclusions, making inferences and making decisions Evaluating and choosing among alternatives.

An understanding of AI requires an understanding of related terms such as intelligence, knowledge, reasoning, thought, cognition, learning and a number of computer related terms.

While we lack precise scientific definitions for many of these terms, we can give general definitions of them. And of course, one of the objectives of this text is impact social meaning to all the terms related to AI, including their operational meanings. Dictionaries define intelligence as the ability to acquire, understand and supply knowledge or the ability to exercise thought and reasons. Of course, intelligence is more than this, it embodies all of the knowledge and feats both conscious and unconscious which we have acquired through study and experience; highly refined sight and sound perception, thought; imagination; the ability to converse, read, write, drive a car, memorize and recall facts, express and feel emotions and much more. Intelligence is the integrated sum of these facts, which gives us the ability to remember a face not seen for thirty or more years or to build and send rockets to the moon. Its those capabilities, which set Homo sapiens apart from other forms of living things. And as we shall see, for intelligence is knowledge.

Can we ever expect to build systems, which exhibit these characteristics? The answer to this is yes! Systems have already been developed to perform many types of intelligent tasks and expectations are high for near term development of even more impressive systems. We now have systems, which can learn from examples, from being told from past related experiences and through reasoning. We have systems, which can solve complex problems in mathematics, in scheduling many diverse tasks, in finding optimal system configurations, in planning complex strategies for the military

and for business, in diagnosing medical diseases and other complex systems, to name a few. We have systems, which can understand large parts of natural language. We have systems, which can see well enough to recognize objects from photographs, video cameras and other sensors. We have systems, which can reason with incomplete and uncertain facts. Clearly, with these developments, much has been accomplished since the advent of the digital computer.

In spite of these impressive achievements, we still have not been able to produce coordinated, autonomous systems which posses some of the basic abilities of a threeyear old child. These include the ability to recognize and remember numerous diverse objects in a scene, to learn new sounds and associate them with objects and concepts and to adapt readily to many diverse new situations. These are the challenges now facing researchers in AI. And they are not easy ones. They will require important breakthrough before we can expect to equal the performance of our three-year old.

To gain a better understanding of AI, it is also useful to know what AI is not for proper understanding of AI. AI is not the study and creation of conventional computer systems. Even though one can agree that all programs exhibit some degree of intelligence, an AI program will go beyond this in demonstrating a high level of intelligence to a degree that equals or exceeds the intelligence required of a human in performing some task. AI is not the study of the mind or of the body or of languages as customarily fond in fields of psychology, physiology, and cognitive science or linguistic. To be sure, there are some overlap between these fields and AI. All seek a better understanding of the human intelligence and sensing processes. But in AI, the goal is to develop working computer systems that are truly capable of performing tasks that require high levels of intelligence. The programs are not necessarily meant to imitate human senses and thought processes. Indeed, in performing some tasks differently, they actually exceed human abilities. The important point is that the systems all be capable of performing intelligent tasks effectively and efficiently.

Finally, a better understanding of AI is gained by looking at the component areas of study that make up the whole. These includes such topics as robotics, memory organization, knowledge representation, storage and recall, learning models, inference techniques, commonsense reasoning, dealing with uncertainty in reasoning and decision making, understanding natural language, pattern recognition and machine vision methods, search and matching, speech recognition and synthesis and a variety of AI tools.

How much success has been realized in AI to date? What are the next big challenges? The answer to these questions forms a large part of the material covered in this text.

2.1

THE IMPORTANCE OF AI

AI may be one of the most important developments of the century. It will affect the lives of most individuals in civilized countries by the end of the century. And countries leading in the development of AI by then will emerge as the dominant economic powers of the world. The importance of AI becomes apparent to many of the worlds leading countries during the later 1970s. leaders in those countries who recognize the potential for AI were willing to seek approval for long term commitment for the needed to find intensive research programs in AI. The Japanese were the first to demonstrate their commitment. They launched a very ambitious program in AI research and development known as the Fifth Generation, this plan was officially announced in October 1981. It calls for implementation of a ten-year old plan to develop intelligent supercomputers. It is a cooperative effort between government and private companies having an interest in the manufacture of computer products, robotics and related

fields. With a combined budget of about one billion dollars, the Japanese are determined. They will realize many of their goals, namely, to produce systems that can converse in a natural language, understand speech and visual scene, learn and refine their knowledge, make decisions and exhibit other human traits. If they succeed and many experts feel they will, their success as a leading economic power is assured.

Following the Japanese, other leading countries of the world have announced plans for some of AI program. The British initiated a plan called the Alvey project with a reputable budget. Their goals are not as ambitious as the Japanese but are set to help British keep abreast and remain in the race. The European common market countries have jointly initiated a separate cooperative plan named ESPIRIT program. The French have their own plan. Other countries including Canada, the Soviet Union, Italy, Austria and even Irish Republic and Singapore have made some commitments in funded research and development.

The United States, although well aware of the possible consequences, has made no formal plan. However, steps have been taken by some organization to push forward in AI research. First, there was the formation of a consortium of private companies in 1983 to develop advanced technologies that apply AI techniques (like VLSI). The consortium is known as the Microelectronic and Computer technology Cooperation (MCC) and is headquartered in Austin, Texas. Second, the Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has increased its funding for research in AI, including development support in three significant programs;

1.

Development of an autonomous Land vehicle (ALV) (a derivative military vehicle). Developments of pilots associate (an expert system, which provides assistance to fighter pilots).

2.

3.

The strategic computing program (an AI based military Supercomputer project).

In addition, most of the larger high-tech companies such as IBM, DEC, AT&T, Hewlett Packard, Texas Instrument, have their own research programs. A number of smaller companies also have reputable research programs. One thing is clear, the future of a country is closely tied to the commitment it is willing to make in funding research programs in AI.

As earlier explained, AI refers to computers that mimic aspects of human thought. A simple electronic calculator doesnt have AI. But a machine that can learn from its mistakes or that can show reasoning power does have AI. Between these extremes, there is no precise dividing line.

As computers have gotten more and more powerful, people have set higher standards for AI. Things that were once thought of as AI are now quite ordinary. And things that seem fantastic now will someday be just humdrum. There is a tongue-in-cheek axiom about AI: Something is AI only as long as its new and strange.

2.2

RELATIONSHIP WITH ROBOTICS

Artificial Intelligence tends itself to robotics. Scientists have dreamed for over a century about building Smart androids, robots that look and act like people. Androids already exist, but they arent very smart

If a machine has the ability to move around under its own power, to lift things, and move things, it seems reasonable that it should do so with some degree of Smart, if it is to be able to accomplish anything worthwhile. Otherwise it would be just a bumbling idiot box, and it might be dangerous, like a driver less car with a brick on the pedal.

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If a computer is to manipulate anything with its brain power, it will need to be able to move around to grasp, to lift, and to carry objects. It might contemplate fantastic exploits, but if it cant act on its thoughts, the work (and the risk) must be undertaken by people, whose strength and maneuverability (and courage) are limited.

Robots without any intelligence, or electronic brains without moving parts, have various uses and abilities. But when robots are given AI, their power multipliers.

2.3

PROVING THEOREM

One measure of computer intelligence, that works on a level some where between intuition and brute-force logic, is the proving of mathematical theorems. If you have taken high-school geometry, youve probably been exposed to theorem proving. Elementary logic courses deal with it too. And computer programming is a type of reasoning similar to theorem proving.

Programs in AI have sometimes found remarkable proofs in mathematics.

ASIMOVS THREE LAWS OF ROBOTICS

One of the worlds most well known Science fiction writers; ISAAC ASIMOV invented the three laws of Robotics in 1942. He wrote more than 400 books in his lifetime. He was born in Russia in 1920, shortly after the communist revolution, but did most of his work in United States. In one of his early science-fiction stories, Isaac ASIMOV first mentioned the word ROBOTICS, along with the fundamental rules that all robots ought to obey. The rules, now called ASIMOVS three laws of Robotics, are as follows:

A robot must not injure, or allow the injury of any human being.

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A robot must obey all orders from humans, except orders that would contradict the first law. A robot must protect itself, except when to do so would contradict the first law or the second law.

Although these rules were first coined in the 1940s, they are still considered good standards for robots nowadays.

2.4

ASSEMBLY ROBOTS

An assembly robot is any robot that assembles products, such as cars, home appliances and electronic equipment. Some assembly robots work alone; most are used in automated integrated manufacturing systems (AIMS), doing repetitive work at high speed and for along period of time.

Assembly robots have taken the place of human workers in some jobs. Some people are concerned that robots take jobs from human beings. But in fact, robots create new kind of jobs that are much more interesting than the old ones.

A person who puts screws in a car door all day long. For example, might be displaced by a robot. But that person might be trained to oversee the operation of a set of assembly robots, to maintain the robots, to program the robots computer, to check the quality of goods produced, or even to sell the goods themselves. The end result is a happier, better paid worker, who is less likely to suffer from the boredom fatigue.

Many assembly robots take the form of robot arm. Several different joint arrangements are used. The type of joint arrangement depends on the task that the robot must perform. Joint arrangements are named according to the type of coordinate system they follow. The complexity of motion in an assembly robot is expressed in terms of the number of degrees of freedom.

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One type of assembly robot developed in Japan is called the SCARA. It resembles the Japanese folding screen that lets it move horizontally to within 0.05 millimeter. Its implicity allows it to work at high speed, and also minimizes the downtime, or time during which the device is out of commission for repairs, It is also rather cheap, as far as assembly robots go.

To do their jobs right, assembly robots need to have all the parts exactly in place. They receive precise instructions, and there is almost no tolerance for error. Human operators, on the other hand, can work with a much larger margin for error. If you need to get a certain pair of pliers, you can recognize it by its shape and size. A robot wouldnt be able to find the pliers unless it was exactly in the right place, or unless it was marked in some way. There are some jobs, therefore, that assembly robot cannot do very well. One of the biggest challenges for humans is the programming for assembly robots, so that the efficiency will be greatest while minimizing the possibility of hang-ups

2.5

AUTOMATED GUIDED VEHICLE (AGV)

An AGV is a type of robot cart that runs without a driver. The cart has an electric engine and is guided by a magnetic field, produced by a wire on or just beneath the floor. Alternatively, an AGV might run on a track, like a miniature train engine.

In an automated factory, AGVs are used to bring components to the assembly lines. The parts must be put in just the right places, so the assembly robots can find them. In the future, the AGVs might serve as low-priority nurses in hospitals, bringing food and nonessential items to patients. An AGV can also serve as a mechanical janitor or mechanical gopher, performing routine chores around the home or office.

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On a larger scale, there has been some talk about making automobiles into AGVs that follow wires embedded in the road pavement. This would take the drivers job away, letting components do it instead. Each car would have its own individual computer, and the traffic in a whole city would be overseen by one or more central computers. In the event of computer failure, all traffic would stop. This will practically eliminate accidents. But people might not accept the idea.

2.6

ELIZA

One of the most controversial developments in AI involved a program called ELIZA. This program was put together in the 1960s by JOSEPH WIZENBAUM of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

The purpose of ELIZA was to simulate a psychoanalyst (a doctor who helps people workout their problems by talking with them). The patient would sit at a computer terminal and converse with the doctor by typing sentences on a keyboard. The ELIZA program was infact, sometimes called DOCTOR. Suppose you were the patient, and you sat down to the computer to talk with ELIZA. You would see, on the screen: SPEAK UP! You might then type: IM UPSET. The computer might then respond with: WHY ARE YOU UPSET? To which you might reply: I DONT KNOW. THATS WHY IM HERE. The conversation would then proceed, with ELIZA asking questions, and the patient giving answers or asking other questions.

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The program may never really commit itself by saying thats wrong or dont ever do that again. The doctor would just make phrases, some from its own memory and some stored from things the patient said earlier. Nevertheless, ELIZA often behaves so much like a real psychiatrist that some people actually suggested that it was just as good as human doctor.

Weizenbaum was disturbed by the reactions and the controversy ELIZA caused. The program was not really very smart especially by standards of the 1990s. The ELIZA program could not then, as computers still cannot, have any feeling or concern of human beings.

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CHAPTER THREE EXPERT SYSTEMS

3.0

WHAT IS EXPERT SYSTEM?

Expert Systems are a class of knowledge-based system. Knowledge-based systems are computer programs which use knowledge of a subject, task, user (or even knowledge about themselves) to do things like interpreting speech or visual images; controlling a robot or a factory; advising on decisions, or solving problems. Current expert systems are usually used as specialist consultants for non-specialist users. They are primarily concerned with making decisions as opposed to seeing, hearing etc. and they typically interactive computer systems, not autonomous robots or process controllers.

During the interaction with an expert system, the user supplies information about a problem, the expert system asks pertinent questions, and then formulates suggestions or recommendations. In medicine for example, the system may suggest possible diagnoses, plans of investigation, treatments etc.

Expert system has risen to prominence recently and rapidly. In consequence there is confusion about what is and what is not an expert system. Expert Systems are programs that help to make decisions.

A characteristic of an expert system is that it should be able to provide explanations of its decision-making methods. It is often said that expert systems mimics the thought processes of human expert (at least to a first approximation). There is, for example, an emphasis on qualitative reasoning to arrive at a decision, in preference to quantitative techniques. Often knowledge is represented with condition-action rules, or semantic networks, both of

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which have been found by psychologists to be good ways of modeling human knowledge. Although they are important, the explanation feature and the attempt to mimic human thought are not invariable in expert system. One feature that in my view must be presented for a system to be called an expert system is that the knowledge it uses is explicit; it is not implicit in some abstract model or in the structure of the computer program. This idea of explicitness is central to all knowledge based systems.

3.1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ROBOTICS
Robots allow production of more goods at a lower cost than is possible without them. If robot wont breakdown, as often as human workers dont gets sick. robots can be used in dangerous jobs, saving human lives ( and lowering medical bills). Robots cant get bored, so they can do jobs that would numb peoples mind with monotony. Many scientists and writers think that the future success of industrialized economies will depend on robotization. Nations that employ robots might prosper; nations that do not use robots will never become major economic powers.

All these great things are meaningless to the person who is out of work, having been displaced by a robot. Sometimes such workers feel insulted as well as injured. I was replaced by a machine. This problem can be solved, however, because robots help the economy more than they hurt it. One solution would be to set up schools, paid for with some of the profits resulting from robotization. These schools would retain people who have been put out of work by robots, so they could find jobs that would make better use of their human talents. This would in turn help the economy still more and the people would be happier too. As economies become less industrial and more information-based, AI, as well as robotics, promises an expanding market of well-paid interesting work. Ironically, robots and computers might be the key to making training affordable to more people.

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