Global Mobile Communications: Emerging Reality Or Escaping Dream

Juha Rapeli Nokia Mobile Phones, Finland

Different regional developments in North-America, Japan, Far-East and Europe are viewed from a global mobile communication's perspective together with system and technology evolution trends towards the capability for multiple system and service solutions as well as multiple mode terminals. This is done on the background of long term market estimates, service demand trends and economical factors. The main options for a global mobile communications are: 1 2

A winning solution emerges through FPLMTS standardization within ITUand the supporting market mechanisms. The inter working between existing and evolving regional mobile systems (including satellite) will cover all global aspects of mobile communications. A global mobile communications system emerges through a staggered and regionally different evolution process.

Mobile services will develop global in parallel with the massive transition from "PER LOCATION" communications with fixed access to "PER PERSON communications with wireless access, and from voice dominance to a plurality of services. Despite the difficulty of predicting the future a following scenario is laid out:

- the evolution and inter working of regional systems (including satellite) will be the first framework for a
globally available mobile service around the year 2000. The success of satellite has a significant role for the awareness of a real global mobile access. - Implementation of FPLMTS features into the regional mobile systems in the next stage will expand the scope of globally available services, and create the basis for a large global (consumer) user base - Though the multiple system operation and multiple banamode terminals are able to provide the technical basis for global mobile access, and further, have some merits for the early implementation, the requirement for cost efficiency together with a broad range of service capabilities will drive towards a step-by-step convergence towards a single global system (like the PSTN)whic also contains strongly dedicated regional characteristics. The mobile access will become a competitive alternative for basic communication needs and all personal communications and thus the challenger for fixed access in the 21st century. Thus the role of mobile communications for developing countries, global frequency coordinatiodallocation and other global aspects of regulations, high bit rate services, and mobility in fixed networks will be shortly introduced.

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