Landcor - 2013 Residential Sales Summary

The Landcor Report

March British Columbia12 , 2013 2012 Residential Sales Summary -1th

March 12th, 2013

Fifty years ago, Rudy Nielsen drove a costly front-end loader into a sorting yard mudpit and sank it. Rudys no fool and he did it on direct orders from his boss: Mr. Telford. Rudy, the loader, Mr. Telford and Rudys job survived because Mr. Telford knew that he had explicitly ordered the risky task and didnt shirk responsibility. He made a recovery plan, executed it, ate the costs and learned his lesson. One could learn a lot from guys like Telford: confidence balanced by fairness, over-reaching responsibility, real leadership and not blaming others for ones own decisions when these decisions go sour. Assess the problem, buckle down, remedy or mitigate the damage as efficiently and quickly as possible. An apt analogy for what now faces BC, Canada, and the world. But that approach is all too rare. The classic human response: When in danger/when in doubt/run in circles/scream and shout. Locally, provincially, nationally, globally, were heading into interesting times, the daunting reality of what decades ago was scientific speculation and warnings and have now become certainties, actualities. Arguably the biggest, most invasive, systemic problem: climate change and its knock-on effects. Likely its too late to avoid the tipping point and maintain the environmental status quo but that doesnt mean one gives up. Like Telford however, this means assuming responsibility and taking action, even when doomsayers predict futures as dark as soot, as inevitable as the tide. (More about this, later.)
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2012 Undercurrents - Its Not All About Us

Carbon dioxide can be absorbed by oceans and living vegetation; soot is more hardy, to the point of unfriendly. It literally sticks to itself and doesnt easily decompose or absorb. Instead, floating high and drifting far, soot begrimes lungs and northern ice fields alike, each tiny black particle is eternal. In the wild, they act like tiny solar stills to trap heat, melt snow, thaw methane-filled permafrost, expose long-buried land that in turns heats up in a cascade effect, raising global temperatures . . . and sea levels.
Quarterly Sales Counts/ BC All

% change 2011 - 2012 2 % change 2010- 2012

BC
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

2012 87,383 $43.16B

2011 96,724 $50.92B

Chg1

2010 100,970 $47.51B $489,284 $485,000 $323,224 $320,000 $370,082 $363,000

Chg2

-9.66% -15.2% -6.74% -6.13% -3.93% -3.56% -4.49% -4.68%

-13.46% -9.15% 0.36% -2.06% -1.27% -0.94% -2.61% -3.63%

$491,033 $526,494 $475,000 $506,000 $319,128 $332,198 $317,000 $328,700 $360,412 $349,809 $377,353 $367,000

In what Ecocentric online magazine calls the scariest environmental fact in the world, in 2011 China burned 3.8 billion tons of coal, almost double the 1.5 billion tons sent up in sooty smoke in 2000. (Exclude China and global per annum consumption of coal remained relatively flat; 3.8 billion tons in 2000 rising slightly to 4.3 billion tons in 2011.) In turn, the International Energy Agency says that by 2017, India could be importing as much coal as China. Even as North America and Europe cuts coal use, thanks largely to tougher pollution laws, fracking and the rise of natural gas, China and similar developing nations do the cheap and cheerful economics and instead reach for the coal scuttles and gigatons of carbon. Compared to green energy, coal is cheap to mine and export. Its also absolute hell on the lungs and environment when not thoroughly combusted; coal is estimated to account for 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions with an extra nasty: insidious soot particles. Coal is made up of 70 to 90 percent carbon. Burning it releases carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas. It also releases something scientists now cite as perhaps even more problematic: soot. Learn more about the data services that we offer

Metallurgical and thermal coal is BCs largest single export commodity: $5.6 billion in revenues on 26.6 million tonnes, 4,000 direct and badly needed, high-paying jobs in remote BC communities. BC currently has 10 mines in production with another 10 in various stages of exploration, permits and proposals. In the last decade, BC coal production hasnt varied much but values bounded six-fold since 2004. As coal prices rise, so do the environmental, economic and political lures and conundrums. As The Vancouver Sun ace reporter Larry Pynn notes in a recent article, coals notoriety as the dirtiest fossil fuel is staining the BC governments climate-change initiatives. However, BC needs that income . . . even though BC coal helps raise ocean levels and literally sink future voters in low-lying areas of the province. Even if BC took the painful high ground and did stop exporting coal to, say Chinas inefficient mills and furnaces, other coal-exporters such as Australia or Indonesia would happily scoop up the business and the billions in yuans.
Quarterly Median Sales Prices/ BC All

Here in BC, were caught between the (pay) dirt and the deep, not-soblue seas. Much of the province sits high and craggy above the water line. But, the most populous part the Lower Mainland does not. In 2011, in anticipation of a predicted 1.2-meter rise in sea levels over the next 100 years, the BC government set new guidelines for sea dikes in coastal flood-risk zones. For a culture not inclined to think in generations, a century is a lot of dawdling time. Others believe the rise www.landcor.com

Landcor - 2013 Residential Sales Summary will be much sooner, within 50 or even 20 years, within the lifetime of most readers. It could be much worse too. As reported in The Vancouver Sun, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) puts Metro Vancouver as 15th on the global risk list in terms of assets, with $55 billion on the (water) table and 32nd in terms of people, with 320,000 people at risk. Not to mention a good chunk of BCs low-lying, finite agricultural land. The unpalatable solution is managed retreat where government and population basically gives up and goes along with the flow, gradually shifts everything and everyone to higher ground. (If so, Landcor breathless prediction: future surges of motivated sellers in Richmond, Delta et al.)

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March 12th, 2013

% change 2011- 2012
2

% change 2010- 2012

% change month to previous month

%

Gr. Vancouver
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

2012 40,229 $27.33B

2011 48,917 $35.14B

Chg1

2010 48,355 $29.99B $753,639 $696,500 $363,607 $353,900 $449,811 $434,000 Dec. 2,094.00 $2.05B $828,044 $762,500 $344,672 $332,032 $430,412 $408,950 2010 17,632 $6.81B $416,017 $416,000 $278,878 $262,600 $328,210 $335,000 Dec. 789.00 $377,312 $380,000 $242,140 $256,917 $303,762 $287,462 2010 13,823 $4.54B $369,829 $372,000 $264,180 $260,000 $290,257 $285,619 Dec. 516 $161.27M $360,002 $360,000 $207,683 $200,000 $258,286 $279,000

Chg2

-17.76% -22.3% -2.22% -1.29% -2.97% -1.50% -3.87% -7.01% % Chg3 4.91% -1.76% 0.24% -1.46% -5.07% -6.23% -2.45% -5.62%
%

-16.80% -8.87% 10.84% 10.27% 1.31% 1.59% 1.01% -1.15% % Chg3 -29.14% -29.45% 1.36% 0.86% -9.93% -11.55% -5.83% -7.67%
%

$835,350 $854,292 $768,000 $778,000 $368,365 $379,633 $359,532 $365,000 $454,335 $472,616 $429,000 $461,341 Oct. 2,955 $1.96B Nov. 3,100 $1.93B

Gr. Van. Monthly

Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

The Ambassador Speaks - Slap On the Whitewash

Despite the lag in Chinas economy, the Middle Kingdoms interest and involvement in Canadas natural resource sector will continue, opines our ambassador to China, Guy Saint-Jacques. In a recent interview with The Canadian Press, Saint-Jacques believes the Canadian mining and energy sectors will see increased Chinese investment (at present; for every yuan put into mining, three are placed in energy) with forestry following along. Along with such strategic moves such as China National Offshore Oil Corporations controversial $15-billion acquisition of Calgarybased Nexan, China state-owned companies such as Petro-China are working the Albertan oil-patch and looking to acquire interests in the proposed (and equally controversial) Northern Gateway pipeline which would, if approved and built, ship diluted bitumen to Asia via the BC coast. Closer to home waters, Chinas imports of Canadian lumber and wood products have grown in a spectacular fashion said Saint-Jacques, up 22-fold in the last decade, 2002 to 2012. China is discovering the quality and ease of frame construction and, with Beijings pledge to build literally millions of affordable housing units. BC softwood exports to China jumped 60 percent in 2011, cracking the $1-billion mark and directly employing 10,000 BCers; since 2003, the China trade has grown by more than 1,500 percent, (rightfully) boasts Victoria. Minerals, gas, energy and other resource exports are taking those not-so-slow boats too. In 2011, the United States market absorbed almost $1.6-billon of BC wood. Japan is in third place, at $648 million in 2011. However, tourism and the average Chinese persons awareness and appreciation of Canada are going gangbusters. By 2015 Canada could see up to 500,000 Chinese visitors per annum, with most of the focus likely on green and clean BC and urbane Toronto. Theres a lot of suspicion towards Chinese investment in Canada, Saint-Jacques told Canadian Press. My message is this: both sides have to work through the suspicion. Concerns are exacerbated by the lack of knowledge on both sides. Many countries have placed restrictions on foreign ownership of residential properties and agricultural land: Australia, the United Kingdom, the Peoples Republic of China, Hong Kong among others. The doors are closing. Canada has no restrictions on residential property sales. (Certain western provinces such as Saskatchewan do limit agricultural land sales to outsiders.) In big urban centers such as Toronto and Vancouver, the influx of foreign buyers has unquestionably affected prices, especially in the investment condo and higher-end singlefamily-detached (SFD) markets. Learn more about market trends in BC

$816,963 $818,930 $756,000 $745,000 $382,690 $363,288 $375,400 $352,000 $457,074 $445,880 $442,900 $418,000 2012 14,507 $5.56B 2011 15,734 $6.01B

Vancouver Island
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

Chg1

Chg2

-7.80% -7.44% -1.54% -1.95% -3.98% -5.52% -6.31% -6.72% % Chg3 -4.97% -5.24% -2.50% -3.71% -2.71% -8.03% -14.3%
%

-17.72% -18.41% -3.70% -3.84% -9.26% -9.77% -6.79% -6.72% % Chg3 -33.59% -38.63% -7.29% -5.0% -8.30% -3.24% -1.55% -8.74%
%

$400,610 $406,872 $400,044 $408,000 $253,057 $263,556 $255,000 $269,900 $305,929 $326,550 $312,500 $335,000 Oct. 1,188 $406,991 $400,000 $264,054 $265,532 $308,549 $315,000 2012 11,347 $3.77B Nov. 1,129 $385,675 $390,000 $254,264 $258,327 $283,762 $269,961 2011 12,993 $4.40B

Van. Island Monthly

Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

$446.35M $429.84M

-3.70% $273.93M

Okanagan
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

Chg

Chg2

-13.7% -16.7% -1.4% -1.8% -12.6% -12.5% -5.2% -4.2%

-18.9% -19.3% 2.1% 0.8% -13.4% -14.2% -3.6% -0.9% % Chg3 -48.40% -52.62% -5.65% -5.26% -12.60% -14.16% -7.80% -11.92%

$375,755 $382,951 $375,000 $382,000 $210,940 $261,791 $212,000 $255,000 $279,820 $295,106 $283,000 $295,500 Oct. 1,000 $381,577 $380,000 $237,632 $233,000 $280,132 $282,709 Nov.

Okanagan Monthly
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

% Chg3

874 -12.60% $356,547 $360,000 $205,750 $290,713 $299,650 -6.56% -5.26% -11.70% 3.78% 5.99%

$340.37M $277.73M -18.40%

$203,076 -14.54%

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Landcor - 2013 Residential Sales Summary Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a global consulting firm, reports that in 2010 there were 1.2 million US-dollar-equivalent millionaires in China. A year later, this elite club was up more than 10 percent to 1.4 million and, says Boston Consulting, will grow strongly in the future, assuming Beijing doesnt throw a wrench into the works. Which has happened before. Two classes of buyers, sometimes distinct but often melded together. First, the investor swooping in en mass to buy condos as safe havens for their new wealth, as many locals who didnt get into the market earlier, grumble about unaffordability and rising prices. With investors, when prices keep rising -- all is well. But if prices stagnate and/or financial problems bubble up at home, cutting loose isnt hard to do. Investment money isnt sticky it will flow away if and when the investment softens or the owner believes better returns can be achieved or salvaged -- elsewhere. In the timeless Landcor axiom: Bu yao ba ji dan fang zhai yi ge lan zhi Dont stick all your eggs in one basket. The second type: the homebuyer, accent on home and focused on generational security versus short-term gains. In the Lower Mainland this translates into SFD that by definition means actual dirt a distinctive lot -- rather than mere air space as in stacks of condos. In desirable areas, finite land and other restrictions naturally limit new SFD construction and buoys up prices. As well, SFD owners tend to be older and relatively more financially secure and thus less willing to sell for less.

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March 12th, 2013

% change 2011 - 2012
2

% change 2010-2012

% change month to previous month

Fraser Valley
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

2012 10,601 $4.18B $457,678 $452,336 $193,559 $199,900 $288,816 $298,954 Oct. 846 $335.73M $447,931 $437,000 $228,574 $229,900 $304,605 $317,949 2012 7,425 $1.50B $232,022 $240,000 $106,604 $114,000 $165,675 $189,000 Oct. 615 $130.3M $233,137 $243,100 $136,951 $130,000 $169,922 $195,000 2012 3,274 $0.82B $273,027 $280,000 $175,682 $187,250 $266,029 $263,180 Oct. 287 $70.84M $275,944 $280,550 $163,606 $205,357 $238,744 $230,000

2011 10,743 $4.05B $451,880 $449,900 $190,238 $196,000 $290,359 $294,000 Nov. 944 $361.38M $450,171 $449,000 $204,614 $205,629 $294,718 $298,000 2011 7,068 $1.31B $219,138 $230,000 $89,282 $89,000 $146,732 $176.000 Nov. 535 $117.03M $246,188 $250,000 $75,574 $84,750 $171,940 $203,500 2011 3,053 $0.75B $271,757 $280,000 $182,009 $187,375 $283,398 $278,100 Nov. 267 $63.4M $259,365 $270,000 $169,168 $183,000 $271,954 $250,000

Chg1

2010 11,483 $4.23B $450,739 $443,250 $190,239 $194,772 $289,466 $296,500 Dec. 550 $225.31M $450,846 $450,668 $201,829 $202,500 $297,102 $288,022 2010 6,886 $1.20B $210,600 $224,000 $95,704 $131,500 $165,526 $185,000 Dec. 329 $93.6M $208,590 $225,000 $89,258 $86,750 $168,754 $230,000 2010 3,621 $0.88B $271,757 $280,000 $182,009 $187,375 $283,398 $278,100 Dec. 149 $38.46M $248,058 $244,000 $158,937 $160,000 $333.270 $333,765

Chg2

-1.32% -3.30% 1.28% 0.54% 1.75% 1.99% -0.53% 1.69% % Chg3 11.58% 7 .64% 0.50% 2.75% -10.48% -10.56% -3.25% -6.27%
%

-7.68% -1.20% 1.54% 2.05% 1.74% 2.63% -0.22% 0.83% % Chg3 -34.99% -32.89% 0.65% 3.13% -11.70% -11.92% -2.46% -9.41%
%

Fraser Valley Monthly

Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

BC North/NW
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

Chg1

Chg2

5.05% 14.71% 5.88% 4.35% 19.40% 28.09% 12.91% 7.39% % Chg3 -13.01% -10.18% 5.60% 2.84% -44.82% -34.81% 1.19% 4.36%
%

7.83% 24.75% 10.17% 7.14% 11.39% -13.31% 0.09% 2.16% % Chg3 -46.50% -19.4% -2.0% 0.0% -9.0% -7.6% -6.5% 7.8%
%

Soft Landing? Hard Knocks?

Real economies are integrated, consisting of more than just homeowners. Consider, for example, the 2011 report from the Certified General Accountants Association of Canada (CGA) that warned of ever-rising household debt ($1.5 trillion and climbing) and its asymmetric effect on single-parent families, retirees and those with annual incomes of less than $50,000 who all face a bleak financial situation. The CGA report noted if the debt mountain was spread evenly, a family with two children would owe almost $180,000 . . . but its not spread evenly. Working households making $50,000 or under are, according to the CGA report, six times more likely to be financially vulnerable in terms of the debt-income ratio. Single-parent families debt loads increase with age, making tough lives even tougher. More Canadians are lugging debt into retirement; one third enter the golden years owing an average $60,000 and 17 percent stagger under $100,000 plus. When the CGA report came out way back in 2011, the household debt-to-personal income ratio was a record 146.9 percent, up from 144 percent in late 2009. As of Q3 2012, the ratio was 164.6 percent although (silver-plated lining) the rise appears to be moderating. The bulk of the debt is mortgage debt and thus somewhat sheltered under equity in those homes, although, worrisomely, non-mortgage debt is rising. You say tomato; I say potato and well-respected voices such as David Rosenberg, chief economist for wealth-management firm Gluskin Sheff and Associates, says when dissected properly, the debt/ income-ratios fears and bubble panic are overblown. Rosenbergs reasoning: Canadian debt/income ratio isnt really 165 percent. Factor out our universal health-care premiums; its more like 118 percent. In the United States, pending the (spotty) implementation of Obamacare, personal medical costs and user-pay premiums are much higher. As of late fall, 2012 Canadian household debt, stacked against Learn more about the data services that we offer

BC North/NW Monthly
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

Kootenay
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

Chg1

Chg2

7.24% 8.78% 0.40% 1.82% 3.47% 1.22% 1.94% 3.21% % Chg3 -6.97% -10.46% -6.01% -3.76% 3.40% -10.89% 13.91% 8.70%

-9.58% -6.75% 0.47% 0.00% -3.48% -0.07% -6.13% -5.36% % Chg3 -48.08% -45.71% -10.11% -13.03% -2.85% -22.09% 39.59% -7.3%

Kootenay Monthly
Number of Sales Total Value of Sales Detached Condo Attached Average Median Average Median Average Median

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Landcor - 2013 Residential Sales Summary household assets and net worth, sits at 19 and 24 percent respectively, down from the 20 and 25 percent peak. Canadians are learning frugality. Rosenberg estimates Canadian housing prices would have to drop by 20 percent before they mirrored the US pre-bubble burst situation. Canadians also own more of their abodes: 69 per cent average equity versus 43 per cent in the United States. Nationally, the cushion is well padded (albeit not so much in Metro Vancouver and Greater Toronto). Or maybe not . . .

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March 12th, 2013

A Quick Peek Below the Border

Sitting atop the US economy and despite best efforts to diversify into overseas markets, resource-based Canadas financial health is still very much entwined with the elephant. The US now seems to be pulling out of its housing mess, it (briefly) side-stepped its self-made fiscal cliff but it also has that titanic US$700 trillion plus tar-pit debt underfoot and not much bipartisan to notice the peril, let alone make the painful but crucial -- struggle back to firm, fiscal ground. If the US goes into the bog (again) and no matter how tidy their own ledgers, Canada and the world -- will feel the quicksand pull. If the US macros are bad, the micros arent much better. Much like their debt-happy Canuck counterparts, 44 percent of American households

live on what the national non-profit Corporation for Enterprise Development, (CFED) calls the edge of financial collapse and, should the least thing go wrong, they wouldnt have the resources to cover three months of basic expenses at the federal poverty level. Other surveys have found that almost 40 percent of American households walk the tightrope from pay stub to pay stub, even as existing US social-safety nets are under attack in the US Congress by nominally deficit-reduction hawks. The CFED says those who see themselves as middle class (annual incomes US$55,465 to US$90,000) are liquid-asset poor with less than three months personal savings. In turn, 26 percent were networth asset poor their few assets are overwhelmed by their debts. Bubble burst or slow deflate? race for the exit? or steady trickle? In overbuilt situations whats left is surpluses of inventory and what are now unrealistic prices, unnaturally bloated and hollowed out from without. Real bad luck for those who bought at market peak, with minimal down payments, blithely thinking the music would never stop. Simple math but when interest rates rise (ETA: late 2013/early 2014) and should they rise in a weak economy, the combination punches will knock loose the newish overextended condo owners with thinning equity, now going underwater. More inventory, more motivated sellers, more price squeezing . . . and the beat(ing) goes on.

Rudys Thoughts:
Sunny with a chance of rain? Rainy with a chance of sun? After five decades of weathering through and taking advantage of real-estate markets and economic cycles, I know the only real constant is change. That and how seldom most economists, pundits and other entrails-examiners agree on anything. Most predict 2013 will be a blah year. Overheated Canadian and BC real estate markets will cool as the big three economies United States, Euro-zone and China -- wrestle with the usual trials. Hunker down and wait. Closer to our home however, contrarians warn of Canadian banks ever-lower mortgage rates which, when coupled with bubble fatigue, could see frustrated wannabe homebuyers pile back in, (briefly) pump the markets, putting paid to Ottawas plans of a soft landing . . . and set things up for a real bad correction to come. Me, I take the long view. BC is a trove of natural resources, clean water, an enviable place to work, live and watch the cycles go by. Be prudent, carry an umbrella, be glad youre here.
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 $10 $0

BC Residential Annual Real Estate Sales, 1976-2012

Provincial NDP Party 1991-2001 GST Introduced S&L Crisis Expo 86 Gulf War Hong Kong handover to China real estate frenzy leading up to 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis Provincial Liberal Party 2001 -

Vancouver 2010 Olympics & HST Introduced

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Total Sale Amount

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Sound real estate decisions are made using the best possible information. Incorporated in 1987, Landcor Data Corporation has grown to be one of the most trusted providers of objective real estate data and analysis in British Columbia. During the past two decades weve helped hundreds of clients achieve their goals by offering the most comprehensive real estate data, analysis and insight available. From real estate valuation and analysis to land economics research and systems development, our staff of highly qualified experts are here to help you find solutions to your real estate analysis and data needs. Landcor maintains the largest, most comprehensive database of historical sales and current information on BC residential and commercial real estate. Landcors database includes: BC Assessment data on 1.94 million properties sales transaction data for BC, including prices updated weekly geographic location data used in custom reports

LANDCOR Data Corporation

200 313 Sixth Street New Westminster, BC V3L 3A7 Rudy Nielsen R.I. (B.C.) F.R.I. President and Founder

This report is provided by Landcor Data Corporation (Landcor) as a courtesy for general information purposes. Because the data in this report is provided to Landcor by the British Columbia Government and its various agencies, Landcor has no control over the accuracy of the data. The information in this document (the content) is therefore provided as is and as available. The content is provided without warranties of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or noninfringement. Landcor, its subsidiaries, or its licensors are not liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages that result from the use of this content. This limitation applies whether the alleged liability is based on contract, tort, negligence, strict liability or any other basis, even if Landcor has been advised of the possibility of such damage. Because some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages, Landcors liability in such jurisdictions shall be limited to the extent permitted by law. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. 2013. All information herein is intended for information purposes only.

Learn more about market trends in BC

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2012