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Preliminary Findings
October 16, 2012
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Pro-green 26-41% (2020)
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Outcome Document The Future We Want Pada penutupan KTT Rio+20, telah disahkan outcome document The Future We Want diadopsi pada akhir sesi Debat Umum pada tanggal 22 Juni 2012. Dokumen ini terdiri dari 283 paragraf yang intinya berisi:
Our common vision; Renewing political commitment; Green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication; Institutional framework for sustainable development; Framework for action and follow-up; Means of implementation.
AGENDA
1. What is IB and the purpose of our study? 2. Macro-economic context for IB in Indonesia 3. Inclusive Business Models in Indonesia 4. IB Investments 5. Recommendations for ADB Support 6. Questions and Answers
Assessment Process
Macroeconomic landscape, PE market, SE & IB market and donor landscape Data collection
methods Macroeconomic assessment Findings PE market assessment Relevance Study recommendations Investment Strategy Donor Mapping
30 fund manager and co-investor interviews 10 case studies being developed Secondary research on PE and capital markets in Indonesia Secondary research of macro and micro economic conditions in Indonesia
38 in-person company interviews so far Secondary research on landscape Specifically targeted companies operating in Eastern Indonesia
Business
Inclusive business
Companies and enterprises that directly engage- in innovative ways - BoP populations in their value chain as consumers, suppliers, distributors or employees and create systemic impact in scale on poverty reduction and inclusiveness.
Low
Positive externalities
1
High
% of Total Population
78.0% = 193.90 Ml
Total population living on US$3 per day
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2001
2010
AGENDA
1. What is IB and the purpose of our study? 1. Macro-economic context for IB in Indonesia 2. Inclusive Business Models in Indonesia 3. IB Investments 4. Recommendation for ADB Support
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38 Companies with IBs selected based upon Size, Potential Growth and BoP engagement
Company Name Agriculture/Agribusiness 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Usaha Kita Makmur Indonesia (UKMI) Paskomnas PT. Mars Symbioscience Indonesia PT. Great Giant Pinneaple Indonesia Green Gold Group Riau Sagu Lestari & Sinar Sagu Mas PT. Agri Spices Indonesia CV Indo Agro Perdana Javanegra Small Large Large Large Medium/Large Small/Mediun Medium/Large Small Medium High High High High High High Moderate High High Rice, Forest Honey etc. Agribusiness Wholesale Market Chocolate Producer Canned Pineapple Producer Seaweed Starch producer /processor Spice trader and processor Coffee Tourism Size Growth Prospect Sector Specific/Product BoP Engagement Model C D E S
Manufacturing/Light Manufacturing 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Lautan Luas Tbk PT. Panasonic Manufacturing Indonesia PT. Holcim Indonesia PT. DUA Lighting PT. Aditec Cakarwiyasa Mandala Marmer Dian Handycraft Silverplas Pasific Nike Indonesia Large Large Large Small Large Small Small Small Medium/Large High High Moderate Average Average Average High High Chemical trader and processor Electronic/Home Applience Cement producer Lamp/lighting Manufacturing/Light Manufacturing Marble producer Handycraft Plastic pellet Sport apparel
Consumer Product/Retail
19
20 21
Large
Small Large
High
Average High
Bottled water
Health Product Food
38 Companies with IBs selected based upon Size, Potential Growth and BoP engagement
Potential Growth BoP Engagement Model C D E S
Company Name Consumer Product/Retail 22 23 24 25 PT. Sarinah PT. Unilever Indonesia Mustika Ratu Asa Food
Size
Sector Specific/Product
Department Store/retailer Consumer good Herbal and cosmetic Bread producer /distributor
Renewable Energy 26 27 28 29 30 31 Medco Power Indonesia PT. Sintesa Banten Geothermal PT. Sinar Indonesia Merdeka Ecoport Power Persada Terrasys Energy RiverGen Large Medium/Large Medium/Large Medium/Large Small/Medium Small Moderate Moderate High Average Moderate Moderate Geothermal Geothermal Biomass/Biogass Energy Efficiency System Multi-source renewable energy Hydro Power
Tourism 32 33 Pulan Macan Village & Eco Resort Manuaba Mandiri Small Small High High Eco resort Eco resort and estate
34
35 36 37 38
Ecolodges Indonesia
idGuides Bakrie Telecom Tbk. PT. Riau Andalan Pulp and Paper Link Taxi
Small
Small Medium/Large Large Small
High
High Moderate Moderate Average
Tourism
Tourism Telecommunication Forestry Transportation
Others
Agriculture, Manufacturing, Consumer Product, Renewable Energy and Tourism are the most attractive sector with IB Model
Market Scope Financial Returns Systemic problem solving Social Returns Reach of the Poor Depth of poverty reduction Relevance Innovative ness of IB Model
Sector
Number of IB Companies
Profitability
Agriculture
Manufacturing/light manufacturing Consumer Product/Retail Renewable Energy Tourism Telecommunication Forestry Transportation Finance Health, Education Housing, Water
Very high
High Very high Medium Medium Low Low Low
Very High
Very High Very High High High Very High High Medium
High
High High High Medium Low Low High Interview in process Interview in process Interview in process
Very high
High Very high Very high Medium / High Low Low / Medium Medium / High
High
High Medium High Medium High Medium Low
Renewable energy, IT, and basic services (i.e. housing, water, etc)
IBs that address systemic problems Renewable energy Supply chain constraints Nutrition and food products Geographical targets Rural/ isolated regions Rich natural resources
AGENDA
1. What is IB and the purpose of our study? 1. Macro-economic context for IB in Indonesia 2. Inclusive Business Models in Indonesia 3. IB Investments 4. Recommendations for ADB Support
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Challenges
Limited IB finance expertise, lack of investment-ready SMEs and angel networks Inept bureaucracy, endemic corruption and weak investor protection Regulated PE market environment and transition to Financial Services Authority Legal factors to recognize limited partnerships and collective investment frameworks
Opportunities
Engage IB market niche with regional IB fund Up-swelling in entrepreneurship ecosystems Mandated CSR with limited value proposition Low valuations and under-valued/managed assets
16
17 Source: BI, Bloomberg, Nomura Research, BPS, Stan Chart Research, Bain & Co., IDX Factbook , WSJ, World Bank
Geographic Focus
Emerging Markets Asia Regional & Special Funds Indonesia
Investment Stage
Investment Sector
Clean Energy, Hospitality, Financial Services, F&B, Transport, Education, Healthcare, Retail, Pharmaceutical/Bio- tech Financial Services, Real Estate, Hospital-ity, Clean Energy, IT, Natural Resources, Healthcare Transport & Logistics, IT
Aureos Capital
Growth
Listed Equities Fixed Income PE Growth Listed Equities Public Bonds Early/Growth Micro/Impact
Indonesia
Bamboo Finance
Yes
Clean Energy, Healthcare, Financial Services, Education, Water, Low Cost Housing, Agriculture Infrastructure, Mining, Transport & Log-istics, Energy. Interest in SME funds Financial Services, Energy, F&B, Transport & Logistics, Real Estate Financial Services, Clean Energy, Agriculture, Healthcare.
Indonesia
BlueOrchard
Yes
No but IB interest
Listed Equities
Financial Services, Real Estate, F&B, Transport & Logistics, Manufacturing, Retail
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IB Focus
Yes
Geographic Focus
Emerging Markets Indonesia Emerging Markets Indonesia
Investment Stage
Investment Sector
Agriculture, Clean Energy, Healthcare, Education Agriculture, Clean Energy, IT, Health-care, Education
Early/Growth Micro/Impact
LGTPV
Yes
Early/Growth Micro/Impact
Listed Equities Fixed Income Public Funds Listed Equities Public Bonds Listed Equities Public Bonds Listed Equities Fixed Income Public Bonds PE Growth Listed Equities Public Bonds Listed Equities Public Bonds
Mandiri Manajemen Investasi Manulife Asset Management Milenium Danatama Indonesia Nikko Securities Indonesia
Indonesia
Real Estate, Retail, Energy, Agriculture, Infrastructure Financial Services, F&B, Energy, Real Estate, Transport & Logistics, IT Financial Services, Energy, F&B, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Agriculture
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
No but IB interest
Indonesia
Trimegah Securities
No but IB interest
Indonesia
19
Co-investors willing to engage in inclusive business including DFIs (DEG, FMO, AFD)
X
Co-Investors & Investment Sectors Mahanusa Fairways Capital UnoKapital
Current exposure
TMT & Financial Services
Planned entry
Natural FMCG & Energy & Food & Healthcare Hospitality Resources Retail Transport Beverage & Education & Tourism
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X X X X X X X X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
20
PE Funds
Capsquare Asia ReCapital Creador Quvat UBS Credit Suisse Manulife Capital BTPN BNI 46
X X X X X X X
45%
Equity
35%
Equity
Debt
20%
30%
Debt
Blend Indonesia remains primarily collateral-dependent for debt with limited cash-flow financial products (i.e. higher interest & informal sector rates) Working and expansion capital are main barriers to Guarantee* early and growth stage IB opportunities Credit guarantees specifically designed for IB
30% 30%
5% 5%
Fund Managers
Technical Assistanc e
Over 80% of Fund Managers and Co-Investors recognize need and value in TA facility for investee training, advisory support and risk management
Co-Investors
Defined as credit guarantee (i.e. long-term purchase agreement, performance bond, etc)
Source: Interviews with Fund Managers & Co-Investors
Donor Preferences
Donors and development agencies are increasingly interested in market-based solutions Technical Assistance:
AusAID Partnership for Rural Economic Development, UNDP inclusive business development GIZ USAID
Investments
Proposed KfW equity investments in Social Enterprise Fund (start ups) IB debt investments of IFC, DEG, FMO\ Issue of security
22
AGENDA
1. What is IB and the purpose of our study? 1. Macro-economic context for IB in Indonesia 2. Inclusive Business Models in Indonesia 3. IB Investments 4. Recommendations for ADB Support
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Funding
1. Funding is available (Banks and other financial products) Access to funding remains a challenge because of inherent issues from banks (collateral, financial reports, limited product scope)
there is a funding gap for IB IB companies are interested in equity (50%) and debt (50%) financing between $0.5 and $20 million We need to develop a specific deal sourcing mechanism for IB Model that can connect business opportunities with 24 funds/investors
1.
Business
Inclusive business
1
Social enterprise
Below market
Low
Positive externalities
High
Business
Inclusive business
1
Social enterprise
Below market
Low
Positive externalities
High
Development
Owner Acid Test
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Investment Strategy
Investment Exits
Generally MBOs and strategic sales Preliminary interest from DFIs and Co-investors such as Credit Suisse, Manulife, UBS and UnoKapital, Quvat
Fund Manager/CoInvestors
TA Facility
Need for TA facility with three core components: Incubator, impact assessment, post-investment technical assistance
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Questions?
Thank you
29
Further Information
30
31
Key Questions
How to strengthen the environment for IB How does an inclusive business fund crowd-in investment and not crowdout? Government incentives for agricultural growth often do not consider IB Does the company CSR mandate provide a specific opportunity in Indonesia? If ADB is a co-investor: Are we overemphasizing equity? How patient does capital need to be? How should investors plan to exit? What is the right package of equity, debt and TA to meet early and growth stage SEs and SMEs needs? Is TA a solution? Is a fund necessary at all? Would a project management facility (TA) not be enough?
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Company Performance
Investment Strategy
Investment Exits
Fund Manager/CoInvestors
TA Facility
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BoP as
Supplier Consumers Distributors
Employees
BANK
2
Feasibility aspect
Core Company
MoU
Net Income Plasma
6
4
35
36
Indonesia has a vibrant SME Sector, many of them providing employment for the poor
Size of Enterprise Assets Annual Turnover
Micro Small
> IDR 50,000,000 IDR 50,000,000 (50 million rupiah) to IDR 500,000,000 (500 million rupiah); IDR 500,000,000 (500 million) to IDR 10,000,000,000 (10 billion rupiah);
> IDR 300,000,000 IDR 300,000,000 (300 million) to IDR 2,500,000,000 (2.5 billion rupiah). IDR 2,500,000,000 (2.5 billion rupiah) to IDR 50,000,000,000 (50 billion rupiah).
Medium
Large
37
5
Pekanbaru
Padang
Gorontalo
Samarinda Palu
6
Jayapura Wamena
Legend 1 Sumatra
Jakarta
Makassar Surabaya
4
Bali Nusa Tengarra Merauke
2 3 4 5 6
Java Kalimantan
2 3
and processing center Java: driver for national industry and service provisions Kalimantan: Production and processing of national mining and energy
Kendari
Ambon
4 5 6
Bali-Nusa Tenggara: agricultural, plantation, fishery, oil and gas, and mining Sulawesi: gateway for tourism and national food support Papua-Maluku: development of food, fisheries, energy, and national mining 38
39
POOR IN INDONESIA
54.20
49.50
43.20
48.00
38.70
37.90
38.39
37.34
39.05
36.15
35.00
35.10
37.17
34.50
34.97
32.53 14.15
40.10
30.00
27.20
25.90
28.60
22.50
24.20
21.60
23.40
19.14
18.41
18.19
17.70
17.40
17.42
16.66
17.75
15.97
16.58
15.10
13.70
15.42
1976 1980 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
11.30
13.33
31.02
40
30
25
24.2
25.1
23.3
22.1
21.2
18.9
20
UNEMPLOYED & UNDEREMPLOYED (MILLIONS)
15
10
8.4
80.9
8.1
81.6
7.1
82.7
6.6
83.0
2006
2007
YEAR
2008
Underemployment
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2001
2010
Agriculture, Manufacturing, Consumer Product, Renewable Energy and Tourism are the most attractive sector with IB Model
Sector Potential BoP Participationt (rank 1 [low] 4 [high]) 1 Agriculture Manufacturing/light manufacturing Consumer Product/Retail Renewable Energy Tourism Telecommunication Forestry Transportation Finance Health, Water, Housing Systemic problem solving IB Opportunit y/Model Potential for social impact Commodity located base
4 High High High High Medium Low Low High High High Medium High Medium High Medium Low All country Java Java, Sumatra All country All country W. Indonesia All country Java, Sumatra
43
PIPE - private Investment in public equity Notes: excludes deals <$10M; does not include Bridge Loans, Franchise Funding Seed/R&D, Concept & Distressed deals; excludes Infrastructure, Real Estate, REITs, Hotels, Lodging & Property deals 44 Source: AVCJ; BCG, E&Y, Bain Analysis 2012
45
46
10,000ha marine concession for seaweed Long-line method for farming - easy to replicate - scalable by farming groups - unique design of farming apparatus easy to build and; mobile easy to move Strong domestic and export demand High value-added downstream products
47
48