Statistics UNIT 8 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Notes 9.

.2 Steps in Hypothesis Testing Traditional Method Suppose that a certain airline company requires the manufacturer of its aircraft to use rivets whose mean shearing strength exceeds 120 lbs. Each rivet manufacturer that wants to sell rivets to the aircraft manufacturer must demonstrate that its rivets meet the required specification, namely, that the mean shearing strength of all the manufacturers rivets, , be greater than 120 lbs. In this illustration, the rivet supplier is interested in demonstrating that the mean shearing strength of its rivets is greater than 120 ( > 120). The statistical procedure used to make this determination is called a hypothesis test. There are four steps to a conducting a hypothesis test: STEP 1: Formulate the null and alternative hypothesis Hypothesis - A statement that something is true There are 2 hypotheses: Null Hypothesis - The hypothesis that we will test. Generally this is a statement that a population parameter has a specific value. The null hypothesis is so named because it is the starting point for the investigation. The phrase there is no difference is often used in its interpretation. Symbol: Null Hypothesis Clue:

Alternative Hypothesis - A statement about the same population parameter that is used in the null hypothesis. Generally this is a statement that specifies that the population parameter has a value different, in some way, from the value given in the null hypothesis. The rejection of the null hypothesis will imply the acceptance of this alternative hypothesis. Symbol: Alt. Hypothesis Clue:

There are four possible outcomes in a Hypothesis Test: Table 9-1 Null Hypothesis Decision Fail to reject H 0 True Type A Correct Decision Type I Error False Type II Error Type B Correct Decision

Reject H 0 Table 9-2

Probability with Which Error Occurs Error Rejection of a true hypothesis Failure to reject a false null hypothesis Illustration The null hypothesis the airplane is safe is being tested. a) Carefully state the meaning of the four possible outcomes in Table 9-1. Type Error I II Probability

b) Describe the seriousness of the type I error and the type II error.

STEP 2: Determine the Test Criteria The test criteria consists of: 1) specifying a level of significance, 2) determining a test statistic 3) determining the critical region(s) 4) determining the critical value(s) Level of significance - the probability of committing the type I error, . Test Statistic - a random variable used to make the decision fail to reject H 0 or reject H 0 Critical Region - The set of values of the test statistic that will cause us to reject the null hypothesis Critical Value - the first (or boundary) value in the critical region Illustration If = 0.05, and our hypothesis is > 120, find the critical region and critical value.

STEP 3: Obtain the Sample Data and Calculate the Value of the Test Statistic It is known that the population standard deviation of all rivets is 12. A sample of 36 rivets is tested and the resulting measurements yield a sample mean of 124.4. This sample statistic must now be converted to a z-score. The resulting z-score will be our evidence.

STEP 4: Make a Decision and Interpret It Make the decision by comparing the value of the calculated test statistic found in Step 3 to the critical value of the test statistic found in Step 2. Decision Rule If the test statistic falls within the critical region, we will reject H 0 . If the test statistic does not fall within the critical region, we will fail to reject H 0 . Note: The set of values that are not in the critical region is called the noncritical region, or sometimes, the acceptance region. Conclusion Rule If the decision is reject H 0 then the conclusion should be worded There is sufficient evidence at the level of significance to show that... (the meaning of the alternative hypothesis). If the decision is fail to reject H 0 then the conclusion should be worded something like There is not sufficient evidence at the level of significance to show that... (the meaning of the alternative hypothesis).

Statistics Notes 8.2 The z-Test for a Mean First, practice formulating the null and alternative hypotheses: Illustration 9-1 An ecologist would like to show that Rochester has an air pollution problem. Specifically, she would like to show that the mean level of carbon monoxide in downtown Rochester air is higher than 4.9 parts per million. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

Illustration 9-2 In trying to promote the city, the Chamber of Commerce would be more likely to want to conclude that the mean level of carbon monoxide in downtown Rochester is less than 4.9 parts per million. State the null and alternative hypotheses related to this viewpoint.

Illustration 9-3 The mean level of carbon monoxide in downtown Rochester is not 4.9 parts per million. State the null and alternative hypotheses that correspond to this statement. Sign in the Alternative Hypothesis Critical Region

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Two Regions One on Each Side Two-Tailed Test

> One Region Right Side One-Tailed Test

One Region Left Side One-Tailed Test

THE CLASSICAL HYPOTHESIS TEST A FOUR STEP MODEL Step 1: State the null hypothesis ( H 0 ) and the alternative hypothesis ( H a ). Step 2: Determine the test criteria: a. The level of significance, , to be used b. The test statistic to be used c. The critical region(s) d. The critical value(s) Step 3: Collect and present the sample evidence. a. Collect the sample information. b. Calculate the value of the observed test statistic. Step 4: Determine the results. a. Compare the calculated value of the test statistic to the critical value(s) from Step 2. b. Make a decision about H 0 . c. State the conclusion about H a . Illustration For many semesters an instructor has recorded students grades, and the mean for all these students grades is 72. The current class of 36 students seems to be better than average in ability and the instructor wants to show that according to their average the current class is superior to previous classes. Does the class mean x of 75.2 present sufficient evidence to support the instructors claim that the current class is superior? Use = 0.05 and = 12.0.

Illustration It has been claimed that the mean weight of women students at a college is 54.4 kg. Professor Schmidt does not believe the statement that the mean is 54.4 kg. To test the claim he collects a random sample of 100 weights from among the women students. A sample mean of 53.75 kg results. Is this sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis? Use = 0.05 and = 5.4 kg.

Illustration The student body at many community colleges is considered a commuter population. The following question was asked of the Student Affairs Office: How far (one way) does the average community college student commute to college daily? The office answered: No more than 9.0 miles. The inquirer was not convinced of the truth of this and decided to test the statement. He took a sample of 50 students and found a mean commuting distance of 10.22 miles. Test the hypothesis stated above at a significance level of = 0.05, using = 5 miles.

The Hypothesis Test (A Probability Value Approach) The prob-value, p-value of a hypothesis test is the smallest level of significance for which the observed sample information becomes significant, provided the null hypothesis is true. The p-value is computed by finding the probability that the test statistic could be the value it is or a more extreme value (in the direction of the alternative hypothesis) when the null hypothesis is true. (Note: The symbol P is often used to represent p-value, especially in algebraic situation.) THE PROB-VALUE HYPOTHESIS TEST A FIVE STEP MODEL Step 1: State the null hypothesis ( H 0 ) and the alternative hypothesis ( H a ). Step 2: Determine the level of significance, , to be used Step 3: Collect and present the sample evidence. a. Collect the sample information. b. Calculate the value of the observed test statistic. Step 4: Calculate the p-value. Step 5: Determine the results. a. Compare the calculated p-value to the level of significance, , from Step 2. b. Make a decision about H 0 . * If the calculated p-value is less than or equal to the desired value of , then the decision must be reject H 0 . * If the calculated p-value is greater than the desired value of , then the decision must be fail to reject H 0 . c. State the conclusion about H a .

Illustration 9-8 For many semesters an instructor has recorded students grades, and the mean for all these students grades is 72. The current class of 36 students seems to be better than average in ability and the instructor wants to show that according to their average the current class is superior to previous classes. Does the class mean x of 75.2 present sufficient evidence to support the instructors claim that the current class is superior? Use = 0.05 and = 12.0. Test using the p-value approach.

Illustration 9-9 Many of the large companies in a certain city have for years used the Kelley Employment Agency for testing prospective employees. The employment selection test used has historically resulted in scores distributed about a mean of 82 and a standard deviation of 8. The Brown Agency has developed a new test that is quicker and easier to administer and therefore less expensive. Brown claims that their test results are the same as those obtained on the Kelley test. Many of the companies are considering a change from the Kelley Agency to the Brown Agency in order to cut costs. However, they are unwilling to make the change if the Brown test results have a different mean value. An independent testing firm tested 36 prospective employees. A sample mean of 80 resulted. Does this provide sufficient evidence to make the switch to the Brown Agency? Test at the 0.05 level of significance.

Statistics and Probability Notes 8.3 Hypothesis Testing t-Test for a Mean CLASSICAL APPROACH When the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is less than 30, the z-score is inappropriate for testing hypotheses. We have to use the t-test. t* = x x s n

df = n 1

Ex. 1 A job placement director claims that the average starting salary for nurses is $24,000. A sample of 10 nurses has a mean of $23,450 and a standard deviation of $400. Test the directors claim at =0.05.

Ex. 2 A machine is designed to fill jars with 16 ounces of coffee. A consumer suspects that the machine is not filling the jars completely. A sample of 8 jars has a mean of 15.6 ounces and a standard deviation of 0.3 ounces. At =0.10, test the consumers claim.

Ex. 3 A physician claims that joggers maximal volume oxygen uptake is greater than the average of all adults. A sample of 15 joggers has a mean of 43.6 mL per kilogram and a standard deviation of 6 ml/kg. If the the average of all adults is 36.7 ml/kg, test the physicians claim at =0.01.

P-VALUE APPROACH Perform each of the following hypothesis tests using the p-value approach. Ex. 1 Most water-treatment facilities monitor the quality of their drinking water on an hourly basis. One variable monitored is pH, which measures the degree of alkalinity or acidity in the water. A pH below 7.0 is acidic, one above 7.0 is alkaline, and a pH of 7.0 is neutral. One water-treatment plant has a target pH of 8.5 (most try to maintain a slightly alkaline level). The mean and standard deviation of 1 hours test results, based on 17 water samples at this plant, are 8.42 and 0.16, respectively. Does this sample provide sufficient evidence that the mean pH level in the water differs from 8.5?

Ex. 2 On a popular self-image test, which results in normally distributed scores, the mean score for public assistance recipients is expected to be 65. A random sample of 28 public-assistance recipients in Emerson County is given the test. They achieve a mean score of 62.1, and their scores had a standard deviation of 5.83. Do the Emerson County public assistance recipients test lower, on average, than what is expected, at the 0.02 level of significance?

Ex. 3 A major car manufacturer wants to test a new engine to determine whether it meets new air-pollution standards. The mean emission of all engines of this type must be less than 20 parts per million of carbon. Ten engines are manufactured for testing purposes, and the emission level of each is determined. The data (in parts per million) are listed below: 15.6 16.2 22.5 20.5 16.4 19.4 16.6 17.9 12.7 13.9

Statistics Notes 8.4 z-Test for a Proportion Many hypothesis testing situations involve proportions. A hypothesis test involving a population proportion can be considered as a binomial experiment when there are only two outcomes and the probability of a success does not change from trial to trial. Since the normal distribution can be used as an approximation of the binomial distribution when np 5 and nq 5 . The standard normal distribution can be used to test hypotheses for proportions. Test Statistic Proportions p p x = z* = with p n pq n Steps for Hypothesis Testing (Proportions) 1. State the hypotheses and identify the claim. , and q . 2. Find the values of x, n, p, q, p 3. Find the critical value(s). DRAW A CURVE! 4. Compute the test statistic. 5. Make the decision. 6. Summarize the results.

Ex. 1 An educator estimates that the dropout rate for seniors at high schools in Ohio is 15%. Last year 38 seniors from a random sample of 200 Ohio seniors withdrew. At the 0.05 level of significance, test the educators claim.

Ex. 2 A telephone company representative estimates that 40% of its customers want call waiting service. To test the hypothesis, she selected a sample of 100 customers and found that 37% had the call waiting service. At the 0.01 level of significance, is her estimate approximate?

Ex. 3 A physician claims that she spends at least 35 minutes per visit with more than 60% of her patients. She found in a study of 80 patients, 56 patients visited for 15 minutes or longer. Does the evidence support the physicians claim? Test at the 0.01 level of significance.