Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade. BBA Mortgage Approvals was at 30,500 in the month of February. The Euro declined by 1 percent in yesterdays trading session . Japans Corporate Services Price Index was at 0.1 percent in February. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of the concerns that Cyprus banks restructuring plan may be used as a model for the other European nation which can endanger bondholders and depositors. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.6 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the later part of the day which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, concerns over the safety of financial asset of Cyprus, after nations tax plan on the bank deposit also supported an upside in the currency. Further, US equities also ended on a negative note which acted as a favorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 83.11 and closed at 83.0 on Monday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of upbeat global market sentiments after Cyprus bailout deal coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of more foreign inflows after ease in investor rules in debt market also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of uncertainty in the countrys political structure on account of expectations of Samajwadi Party (SP) may withdraw its support from the government along with weakness in the domestic markets. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 54.05 and closed at 54.29 against dollar on Monday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,750.70 crores th ($1,421.91 million) as on 25 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.54,248.80 crores ($10,056.50 million) till 22 March 2013. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals was at 30,500 in February as against a rise of 32,000 in January. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) was at 0.1 percent in February as against a decline of 0.2 percent in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.29 Prev day 0.1

as on 25 March, 2013 w-o-w -0.4 m-o-m -0.6 y-o-y -5.7

$/Euro (Spot)

1.2851

-1.0

-0.8

-1.6

-3.2

Dollar Index NIFTY

83.00

0.6

0.5

1.5

4.5

5633.9

-0.3

-3.5

-3.8

8.7

SENSEX

18681.4

-0.3

-3.2

-3.4

2.1

DJIA

14447.8

-0.4

0.0

3.9

10.5

S&P

1551.7

-0.3

0.0

4.3

11.1

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of the worries over safety of financial asset in Cyprus increased as nation bailout plan to tax bank depositors. Further weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX added downside pressure. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2829 and closed at 1.2851 against dollar on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices decreased around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in DX. Further, demand for safe haven was pressured as the euro finance minister approved the bailout package for Cyprus. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1589.49/oz and closed at $1604.9/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on negative note in the yesterday trading session on the back of appreciation in the Indian rupee and closed at Rs.29588/10 gms after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 29342/10 gms on Monday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1604.9 Prev. day -0.2 as on 25 March, 2013 WoW 0.0 MoM 0.7 YoY -3.4

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (April13) MCX Gold (April13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

29570.0

-0.5

0.2

0.9

5.8

1599.3

-0.5

-0.3

0.8

-3.9

$/oz

1604.6

-0.6

0.0

-0.7

-2.3

Rs /10 gms

29588.0

-0.3

0.1

-0.1

5.2

Source: Reuters

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Spot silver prices ended on positive note by 0.5 percent on Monday as the Euro finance minister approved the bailout package for Cyprus. However, strength in DX coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments capped sharp gains in prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $28.9 /oz and closed at $28.8/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices ended on a positive note by 0.2 percent and closed at Rs. 54212/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 54340/kg on Monday. Appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp rallies in prices.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 28.8 54615.0 Prev day 0.5 -0.9 as on 25 March, 2013 WoW -0.1 -0.2 MoM -0.7 -1.4 YoY -10.5 -

$/oz $/ oz

2867.0 2878.5

-1.3 0.0

-0.5 -0.1

-1.7 -0.5

-9.1 -12.0

Rs / kg

54212.0

0.2

-0.2

0.4

-5.2

Source: Reuters

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note as the investors are worried that the Cyprus bank restructuring may be used as a model for other European nations which may endanger bondholders and depositors leading to rise in demand for safe haven. However, strength in DX may cap sharp gains in prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee may support prices to trade in green. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for March 26, 2013 Support 1598/1592 29500/29390 28.60/28.40 53800/53500 Resistance 1609/1616 29700/29820 28.95/29.15 54500/54800

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 1.2 percent yesterday taking cues from Cyprus bailout package provided by European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. This factor eased the Euro Zone debt crisis which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Further, strength in the DX also capped sharp gains in the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $95.65/bbl and closed at $94.81/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 1.3 percent and closed at Rs.5,157/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5,198/bbl on Monday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending on 22nd March 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 1.2 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels for the same week. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments as a result of concerns that the Cyprus bank restructuring may be used as a model for other European nations which may endanger bondholders and depositors affecting the demand for the fuel. Further, strength in the DX coupled with forecast for rise in crude oil inventories from API will also add downside pressure on the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for March 26, 2013 Support 94.05/93.30 5120/5080 Resistance 95.30/96.0 5190/5230

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (April13) MCX Crude (April 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 94.6 108.0 94.8 Prev. day 1.2 0.4 1.2 WoW 0.9 -1.5 1.1

as on 25 March, 2013 MoM 2.0 -6.6 2.4 YoY -11.2 -14.3 -11.3

$/bbl

108.2

0.5

-1.2

-5.5

-13.6

Rs/bbl

5157.0

1.3

2.0

2.1

-6.2
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.879 213

(% change)

as on 25 March, 2013

Prev. day -1.5 -0.4

WoW -0.08 0.33

MoM 11.75 15.82

YoY 70.66 80.66

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. However, sharp downfall in the prices was cushioned as the euro zone finance ministers approved bailout package to Cyprus. Further, negative LME inventories except copper prevented sharp decline in prices. On the MCX, appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Mar13) Rs /kg 103.6 -1.1 0.4 -3.8 -5.7 $/tonne 1931.0 -0.9 -0.3 -5.1 -11.2 Rs/kg 417.1 -0.5 1.1 -1.3 -3.5 $/tonne Last 7632.0 Prev. day -0.5 as on 25 March, 2013 WoW 0.9 MoM -2.7 YoY -8.9

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack declined by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, sharp rise in LME Copper inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 565,350 tonnes kept the prices under pressure However, Cyprus agreed with the euro zone finance ministers on the bailout package prevented sharp decline in prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7606.25/tonne and closed at $7632/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note and closed at Rs. 417.1/kg on Monday after touching an intra-day low of Rs 415.30/kg. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries among the investors that the Cyprus bank restructuring may be used as a model for other European nations which may endanger bondholders and depositors may also add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, expectation of unfavorable consumer confidence data and new home sales data from US will keep prices under pressure. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will cushion sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc Mar 13 MCX Lead Mar 13 MCX Aluminum Mar13 MCX Nickel Mar 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for March 26, 2013 Support 415/412 103.5/102.5 117/116.2 102.8/102 914/907 Resistance 419/422 105.2/106.2 118.5/119.5 104.2/105 927/935

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Mar13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Mar13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Mar13)

$/tonne

16960.0

-0.9

2.0

1.5

-6.9

Rs /kg

920.5

-1.0

2.7

2.4

-1.5

$/tonne

2184.0

-0.5

0.3

-4.8

8.9

Rs /kg

117.7

-0.7

0.3

-4.9

14.6

$/tonne

1944.0

-0.5

1.2

-6.8

-3.2

Rs /kg

104.4

-0.9

1.7

-7.2

2.1

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 25 March 565,350 5,222,500 162,024 1,189,150 266,975
th

22 March 562,475 5,230,025 162,762 1,193,825 268,475

nd

Actual Change 2,875 -7,525 -738 -4,675 -1,500

(%) Change 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator CBI Realized Sales Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Country UK US US US US US Time (IST) 4:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 12 0.7% 3.8% 7.9% 69.3 426K Previous 8 2.3% -4.9% 6.8% 69.6 437K Impact Medium High Medium Medium High High

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