Model

Building

BANDANA SAMAL(01)
NAGARAJU SATTARU(03)
PABBA PRANAY KUMAR(04)
RAMESH BABU(05)

ASSIGNMENT 4
1)
The main theme of the project is to develop a model of the sales for the brand
P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin which is a_vol38 with its competitors and calculating its RMSE
(Root Mean Square Error) with its predicted sales and actual sales. As there are so many
variables or promotions for the brand as well as competitors we undergo Regression
analysis repeatedly to see which actual promotion is responsible for the sales. The following
tables show the predication of the regression analysis of the promotions for brand
P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin and its competitors.

Variables Entered/Removed
Model

Variables

Variables

Entered

Removed

Method

lnb_prv49,
fsp49,
lnb_prv38,
fsp43,
lnb_prv41,
fsp41, disp45,
tpr38, tpr43,
1

tpr49, disp43,

. Enter

fsp38, fsp45,
tpr45, disp38,
disp41, disp49,
tpr41,
lnb_prv43,
lnb_prv45,
seasonal, trend

a. Dependent Variable: lna_vol38

b. All requested variables entered.

The above table shows the all the variables of the brand P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin and its
respective competitors. These variables will undergo the regression process to predict the
results.

Model Summary
Model

.852

R Square

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

.726

.517

.1774740

a. Predictors: (Constant), lnb_prv49, fsp49, lnb_prv38, fsp43,

lnb_prv41, fsp41, disp45, tpr38, tpr43, tpr49, disp43, fsp38, fsp45,
tpr45, disp38, disp41, disp49, tpr41, lnb_prv43, lnb_prv45, seasonal,
trend

Coefficients
Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Sig.

Coefficients
B
(Constant)

Std. Error
8.986

1.723

fsp38

15.243

11.628

fsp41

-4.164

fsp43

Beta
5.216

.000

.206

1.311

.200

13.866

-.036

-.300

.766

-2.948

18.970

-.024

-.155

.878

fsp45

-11.350

5.567

-.288

-2.039

.051

fsp49

2.463

3.255

.088

.756

.455

disp38

3.826

3.799

.274

1.007

.322

disp41

-2.635

10.125

-.048

-.260

.797

disp43

-8.439

4.780

-.235

-1.765

.088

disp45

1.927

6.531

.058

.295

.770

disp49

-4.010

1.940

-.320

-2.067

.048

tpr38

-.768

.691

-.149

-1.112

.275

tpr41

.230

1.794

.023

.128

.899

tpr43

1.369

1.092

.207

1.253

.220

tpr45

-1.552

.963

-.300

-1.611

.118

tpr49

.543

.606

.131

.897

.377

seasonal

.240

.409

.207

.587

.561

trend

.008

.353

.009

.022

.983

lnb_prv38

-.937

2.727

-.055

-.344

.734

lnb_prv41

-.293

.719

-.080

-.407

.687

lnb_prv43

.674

1.389

.111

.485

.631

lnb_prv45

.572

.822

.215

.696

.492

lnb_prv49
a.

2.430

2.279

.213

1.066

.295

Dependent Variable: lna_vol38

The above table shows the coefficients of the regression analysis for the variables which is used for
the promotion for the brand P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin and its competitors. In this table we are
removing those variables which are not significant for the brand P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin

sales. For example tpr49 is the promotion for the competitor which has positive value .543 and its
significance level is .377 which is greater than actual significance level .05 doesnt show any impact
on the sales of our brand P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin. So, remove it from the table in the next
regression analysis.

Coefficients
Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Sig.

Coefficients
B
(Constant)

Std. Error
8.457

1.613

fsp38

15.141

11.589

fsp41

-4.922

fsp43

Beta
5.242

.000

.204

1.306

.201

13.795

-.042

-.357

.724

5.468

16.432

.044

.333

.742

fsp45

-10.720

5.504

-.272

-1.948

.061

fsp49

2.117

3.222

.076

.657

.516

disp38

3.645

3.781

.261

.964

.343

disp41

-4.265

9.928

-.078

-.430

.671

disp43

-8.481

4.764

-.236

-1.780

.085

disp45

3.522

6.264

.106

.562

.578

disp49

-4.326

1.902

-.345

-2.275

.030

tpr38

-.741

.688

-.144

-1.078

.290

tpr41

-.161

1.735

-.016

-.093

.927

tpr43

1.419

1.087

.215

1.305

.202

tpr45

-1.275

.909

-.246

-1.402

.171

.245

.408

.210

.599

.553

trend

-.055

.345

-.064

-.160

.874

lnb_prv38

-.547

2.683

-.032

-.204

.840

lnb_prv41

-.165

.702

-.045

-.234

.816

lnb_prv43

.954

1.349

.158

.707

.485

lnb_prv45

.212

.715

.080

.296

.769

lnb_prv49

3.277

2.067

.288

1.586

.123

seasonal

a. Dependent Variable: lna_vol38

The above table show the second time regression analysis where tpr49 promotion is removed. In the same
manner when the competitor price is positive and promotion is negative keep that variable otherwise remove it. In
the same manner our brand price should be negative and promotion is positive then that variable should be
considered.

Variables Entered/Removed
Model

Variables

Variables

Entered

Removed

Method

lnb_prv49,
1

fsp45, disp49,

. Enter

tpr38, fsp38,
seasonal

a. Dependent Variable: lna_vol38

b. All requested variables entered.

Coefficients
Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Sig.

Coefficients
B
(Constant)

Std. Error
8.572

.571

fsp38

13.211

7.672

fsp45

-6.477

disp49

Beta
15.020

.000

.178

1.722

.092

3.864

-.164

-1.676

.101

-2.811

1.378

-.224

-2.040

.047

-.771

.515

-.149

-1.497

.141

seasonal

.716

.154

.616

4.649

.000

lnb_prv49

2.141

1.423

.188

1.505

.139

tpr38

a. Dependent Variable: lna_vol38

The above table shows the final variables which plays a vital role of the sales for the brand
P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin.

Model Summary
Model

.781

R Square

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

.609

.557

.1700027

a. Predictors: (Constant), lnb_prv49, fsp45, disp49, tpr38, fsp38,

seasonal

The above graph shows the relationship between the actual sales and predicted sales of the brand
P_Heineken_Vetro_66cl_Sin for 52 weeks

35000
30000
25000
20000

Price

15000
Sales
10000
5000
0
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