Mad Als Grand National Preview Trending a winner A 40 runner handicap isnt my normal idea of a great betting race,

, but its the Grand National and if you can find the winner you can feel smug all week long and your likely to have earnt a few quid in the process. Warning! The explanation goes on a bit, so if you dont care about this just skip to the end where Ive highlighted who I think will win. I also accept no lliability if my prediction doesnt come in! Last year my main bet was on Sunnyhillboy at 20-1. I plumped on him by working through trends for previous winners of the race and crossing through the contenders in the field one by one until I was left with my selection it was just a shame he was beaten by the smallest of heads by some grey Paul Nicholls horse. Bugger! Ive decided to do the same process again this year and luckily for you Im doing it way before the race this time. Ive also explained my thoughts and the process Ive followed to get to the result. If you can be bothered to read on and like what you hear you can back the same horse as me. Alternatively, you can see how your fancy stands up on trends as I go through the field. So first trend to look at is the age of the horse Every Winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12 8 of 10 winners have been aged 9 or 10 No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years Only one horse aged older than 11 has won the race since 2003 (Amberleigh House who was placed in the previous years race and had very good Aintree form)

So Im ideally looking for 9 to 10 year olds, but I will allow the 11 and 8 year olds to stay in at this stage. This results in the following; Within the desired age brackets: (11 years olds) Big Fella Thanks, Roberto Goldback, Forpadydeplastrer, Cappa Blue, Rare Bob, Auroras Encore, Backstage, (10 years olds) What A Friend, Weird Al, Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Joncol, Chicago Grey, Beacusicouldntsee, Pearlysteps, Ninetieth Minute, Tarquinius, Any Currency, Major Malarkey, Pentiffic, Gullible Gordon, (9 year olds) Quel Espirt, Teaforthree, Across The Bay, Colbert Station, On His Own, Balthazar King, Tatenen, Quiscover Fontaine, The Rainbow Hunter, Mr Moonshine, (8 years olds) Join Together, Lost Glory, Harry The Viking, Soll, Viking Blond, Romanesco Outside: (13 year old) Cloudy Lane, (12 year olds) Oscar Time, Always Waining, Treacle, Swing Bill, Mumbles Head, Mortimers Cross, (7 year old) Saint Are Special Cases: Imperial Commander, Ballabriggs (both are 12, but are previous Grand National Winners so Im keeping them onside for now).

The next stat Im looking at is weight. This is a handicap so all horses will be allocated weights based on the ability they have shown so far in an effort to even out the field. Each pound is supposed to compensate a length, so based on the current weights the theory is that the top weight Imperial Commander (11-10) is some 46 lengths better than Mortimers Cross (9-6) if they ran on level weights although this doesnt always work out that way. Key states for weight are; 9 out of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight In the last 5 years horses carrying 10-11 or more (4 winners, 11 placers out of 106 runners) have done better than those carrying 10-10 or less (1 winner, 4 placers out of 94 runners) Horses carrying over 11st 5 were 0-98 since 1977 BUT ten of the last 20 win and placed horses carried 11st or more last years winner carried 11st 6

Now initially you may think these stats are counter intuitive because you may think a horse carrying less weight would be quicker, but the horses with more weight should have a higher level of natural ability which should see them through well in such a demanding race. I am therefore going to split the field based on the current advertised weights, favouring those carrying 10-11 or more. Horses carrying 10-11 or more: Imperial Commander, What a Friend, Weird Al, Quel Esprit, Big Fella Thanks, Seabass, Roberto Goldback, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs, Teaforthree, Across The Bay, Join Together, Colbert Station, Forpadydeplasterer, On His Own, Joncol, Balthazar King, Cappa Blue, Oscar Time Horses carrying 10-10 or less: Always Waining, Tatenen, Treacle, Lost Glory, Swing Bill, Saint Are, Chicago Grey, Quiscover Fontaine, Rare Bob, The Rainbow Hunter, Becauseicouldntsee, Harry The Viking, Mr Moonshine, Mumbles Head, Pearlysteps, Ninetieth Minute, Auroras Encore, Taequinius, Any Currency, Major Malarkey, Soll, Backstage, Viking Blond, Cloudy Lane, Pentiffic, Gullible Gordon, Mortimers Cross *One thing to keep an eye on is the jockey booking. New jockeys can claim a certain amount of weight back due to their inexperience (normally between 7-3 pounds). If the jockey on your horse can claim this weight, this will normally be shown as a number next to their name on their race card.

Next thing to look at is Official Ratings. Each horse has an official rating, an indicator of how good it is, so this is another interesting trend to look at. The trends here are: Horses rated 149 or higher = 3 wins, 9 placers out of 94 runners Horses rated 136 to 148 = 7 wins, 16 placers out of 254 runners Horses rated 127 to 135 = no winners, 5 placers out of 51 runners In the last 5 years, horses rated 144+ have had a better strike rate (4, 12 out of 117 compared to 1, 3 out of 83)

Im therefore going to cut the line at a rating of 144 to see what this gives me: Rating 144 or higher: Imperial Commander, What A Friend, Weird Al, Quel Esprit, Big Fella Thanks, Seabass, Roberto Goldback, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs, Teaforthree, Across The Bay, Join Together, Colbert Station, Forpadyderplasterer, On His Own, Joncol, Balthazar King, Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Always Waining, Tatenen. Rating 143 or lower: Treacle, Lost Glory, Swing Bill, Saint Are, Chicago Grey, Quiscover Fontaine, Rare Bob, The Rainbow Hunter Becausicouldntsee, Harry The Viking, Mr Moonshine, Mumbles Head, Pearlysteps, Ninetieth Minute, Auroras Encore, Tarquinius, Any Currance, Major Malarkey, Soll, Backstage, Viking Blond, Romanesco, Cloudy Lane, Pentiffic, Gullible Gordon, Mortimers Cross. Breakdown of the field So now weve looked at 3 trends, the choices to pick from should be getting smaller. Horses that provide a positive answer in all 3 categories are: Big Fella Thanks, Forpadyderplasterer, Cappa Bleu, What a Friend, Weird Al, Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Joncol, Quel Espirt, Teaforthree, Across The Bay, Colbert Station, On His Own, Balthazar King, Join Together plus Imperial Commander and Ballybriggs who Im letting in on 2 out of 3 scores. That still leaves us with 17, so to reduce this further Im going to look at Breeding and some past form stats: Breeding Irish Bred horses have the best record having won 8 of the last 10 runnings of the race. The other 2 winners were French Bred so any British Bred horses should be removed at this stage! 9 out of 10 runners had finished in the first 5 on last completed start 10 out of 10 winners had their last run after the National weights were announced (13 Feb 2013) 10 out of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since 1 September 10 out of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (career) 10 out of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season 8 out of 10 previous winners had contested a race over HURDLES at some point in the season

Horse Name Forpadyderplasterer Cappa Bleu Weird Al Seabass Sunnyhillboy Joncol Teaforthree Across The Bay Colbert Station On His Own Balthazar King Join Together Imperial Commander Ballabriggs Quel Esprit Big Fella Thanks What A Friend

Stat 1 No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Past Form Stats Results Stat 2 Stat 3 Stat 4 Irish Bred Yes No (7) Yes Yes No (2) No (9) No Yes (3) Yes Yes No (2) Yes No No (2) Yes No Yes (5) Yes Yes Yes (4) No (9) Yes Yes (5) Yes No Yes (4) No (5) Yes No (1) No (7) No No (2) Yes Yes Yes (3) No (8) No No (1) Yes Yes No (9) Yes Yes

Stat 5 Yes (1) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (0) No (2) Yes (1) Yes (0) Yes (1) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (0) Yes (1) Yes (0)

Stat 6 Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No No

Score 4/6 3/6 3/6 5/6 2/6 5/6 3/3 5/6 4/6 4/6 3/3 3/3 3/3 5/6 2/6 5/6 3/3

Yes Yes (3) French Bred No No (1) British Bred Yes Yes (4) Yes No (1)

From these 17, Im left with 4 that score highly on the trends Ive identified, however the one that suddenly leaps out of the page to me is Seabass. Seabass finished third in the race last year and had looked like he might win with only two fences to go. Now a year older (but not too old) and with the race being reduced in distance by a furlong or so, these all add to the positive signs the trends have pointed to. Its also interesting that 5 out of 10 recent winnersof the race have run over the National Fences before, with 4 out of 10 running in the previous seasons Grand National. Even the jockey situation is positive, with Katie Walsh (Ruby Walshs sister) taking the ride for her dad Ted and knowing the horse better than anyone having ridden him countless times both competitively and at home on the gallops. Both Across The Bay and Ballabriggs need to be respected, especially as both are trained by Donald McCaine Jnr and Big Fella Thanks could sneak a place at a larger price but I rate Seabass as the more likely of the four to win. One final point about Seabass is the price. At the moment you can get around 10-1, but hes likely to be a lot shorter come the day of the race so if you fancy him, go and put a bet on now! Of course good luck with whatever you choose, but COME ON SEABASS!

Mad Als Grand National Tip SEABASS