KAT WHORLEY FINITE MATH This project is an example of applications of matrices we learned in Unit 3.

6 Matrices;

KCS#1 PROBLEM SOLVING

UNDERSTANDING: Understanding what is being asked
1) According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pasta#History a. There is a legend of Marco Polo importing pasta from China which originated with the Macaroni Journal, published by an association of food industries with the goal of promoting the use of pasta in the United States. Marco Polo describes a food similar to lagana [an early type of pasta] in his Travels. 2) Chinas population numbers in the billions. a. There were approximately 1,354,000,000 people living in China on December 31, 2012. According to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population I want to study the rate of food exports to China, and because of the legend of Marco Polo, studying the rate of pasta exports seems interesting.

Hypothesizing: (Hypothesizing about potential answers)

Because of the U.S.A.s industrial power and because of the immense population in China, the export of pasta to China should be increasing.

Strategizing: (Strategizing about how to address the problem or question) I will search the U.S. governments database on imports and exports in order to get the official data about the exports. I will use matrix methods to compute slope and the y-intercept. I will use Excel to find the coefficient of determination, and if it is large enough, I will use it to make predictions about future exports. If the slope is positive, then my assumption is correct. If the slope is negative, then my assumption is wrong. If the slope is zero, then there have been no changes in the exports of pasta to China over the years. The y-intercept tells me the initial exports of pasta to China in thousands of dollars. I will try to research outliers in order to figure out why they have appeared. I will get my information from official government websites wherever possible to ensure my data is correct and reliable. In this case, the main website I will be using is the International Trade Association (ITA).

KCS#2 RESEARCH IDENTIFYING: (Identifying what information is needed) We need an excel program, formulas to compute slope and y-intercept, and a database of exports of pasta to China from 2000 to 2010. COLLECTING (How or where to Collect the information ) Visited the site http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/ocg/exp311823.htm I collected the annual data on the U.S. exports of pasta to China (in 1,000 dollars) from 2000 to 2010.

EVALUATING (Evaluating the quality of the information) The data comes from a federal website, and represents the official data for the governments official records. Because of this, I can expect the information to be correct and to be the most trustworthy representation of the information that I will be able to find.
KCS#3 INTERPRETATION

INTEGRATING: (Integrating sources or data and information to prepare for analysis) Data collected was fed into Excel and a scatter plot was drawn. (See Excel sheet) ANALYZING: (Analyzing data or information for patterns or main points.) |A = 0 | |B = 20| | 1| | 33| | 2| | 27| | 3| | 18| | 4| | 0 | | 5| | 6 | | 6| | 0 | | 7| | 20| | 8| | 183| | 9| | 827| | 10| | 1106| The coefficients for m and b for the least squares line y = mx+b are given by

(Used graphical calculator compute this operation)

|m| = |82.527| |b | | -209 |

Using equality of matrices: slope (m) = 82.527, y-intercept (b) = -209 So, my least squares line is given by, y = 82.527x - 209, and R = 0.5037 Numbers dropped from 2002 to 2006, but shot up from 2007 to 2010. Slope is positive. = 0.5037 is reasonably large.

Only 50.37% of variation in pasta exports (y) is explained by x (year) and the line.

Pasta Exports from U.S. to China

Export Amount (1,000 Dollars)

1250
y = 82.527x - 209

1000 750 500 250 0 -250 0

R = 0.5037

10

12

Series1

Year Linear (Series1)

Prediction: see conclusion.

SYNTHESIZING: (Synthesizing by making connections and drawing conclusions) Slope in this problem is the rate of change in exports of pasta from the United States to China. The slope is 82.527, which means that the export of pasta from the United States to China is increasing each year by 82,527 U.S. dollars. The coefficient of determination is about 0.5, which should mean that I can make a reasonable guess on what might occur in the future. However, the last two years increased exponentially compared to the previous data. This suggests that the amount will grow considerably more than my line of best fit would imply. The line of best fit would suggest that the export of pasta would reach 700,000 dollars in 2011, and grow to about 782,500 by 2012. Again, the exports took off exponentially in 2009 and 2008, suggesting that these numbers could be considerably higher. Because of this, I do not feel comfortable making a definitive prediction. Conclusion: The line of best fit suggests that exports will reach about 700,000 dollars in 2011 and about 782,500 dollars in 2012. Based on the huge growth in 2009 and 2010, this is probably inaccurate.

KCS#4 REASONING CONSTRUCTING (Constructing an argument or proof and supporting it with evidence) Since 2000, the exports of pasta from the United States to China have increased. After graphing the amount exported (in dollars) for each year from 2000 to 2010, the line of best fit suggested that the United States has exported about 82.5 thousand dollars more of pasta every year. The data shows that in reality, the amount was relatively stable for years until 2008, when it first began to rise; by 2009 the numbers had increased greatly, and 2010 showed a marked increase as well. Using the line of best fit, one could predict that in 2011, the export of pasta should have reached 700,000 dollars, and by 2012, the export should have reached about 782,500 dollars.

ORGANIZING Organizing the argument in a way that makes sense Chronological order (since the data is based on yearly information) makes the most sense. CRITIQUING: critiquing the argument to improve it Based on the way the amounts increased dramatically in 2009 and 2010, though, these numbers might be significantly higher.

KCS#5 PRECISION/ACCURACY CHECKING Checking work for errors 1) 2) 3) 4) Did you check the validity of the data? YES. Did you use correct formula to compute slope and y-intercept of the line of the best fit. YES. Are there any errors in computing? YES. Did you use correct units for the slope and y-intercept? YES.

COMPLETING Completing all assigned parts of the task 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Did you write the meaning of slope? YES. Did you write the meaning of y-intercept? YES. Are there units for R? YES. Did you predict past/future value? YES. Did you check if the prediction was accurate both algebraically and on the excel? YES. Did you label the axes and scale used for the axes? YES.

PRESENTING : (Presenting information using precise terms and correct layout) See Excel graph for visual data. Since 2000, the exports of pasta from the United States to China have increased. After graphing the amount exported (in dollars) for each year from 2000 to 2010, the line of best fit suggested that the United States has exported about 82.5 thousand dollars more of pasta every year. The data shows that in reality, the amount was relatively stable for years until 2008, when it first began to rise; by 2009 the numbers had increased greatly, and 2010 showed a marked increase as well. Using the line of best fit, one could predict that in 2011, the export of pasta should have reached 700,000 dollars, and by 2012, the export should have reached about 782,500 dollars. Based on the way the amounts increased dramatically in 2009 and 2010, though, these numbers might be significantly higher.