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April 3, 2013
Automobile Sector
Slowdown continues
Domestic automotive sales continued to slide in the month of March 2013, following a weak macro-economic environment, which continues to suppress overall demand. The weakness persisted across all the segments, resulting in a negative volume growth for our OEM coverage universe, with the only exception being Mahindra & Mahindra. The impact of the slowdown continues to be prominent in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV), tractor, passenger car, and two-wheeler segments. Of late, sales in the utility vehicle (UV) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments too have started to taper off on a higher base of the corresponding previous year period. Going ahead, we expect volume growth to remain sluggish in 1HFY2014 due to high inventory levels and weak consumer sentiments. Nonetheless, we expect volumes to recover in 2HFY2014 led by further easing of interest rates, festival demand and also due to favorable base effect. Tata Motors (TTMT) continued its downward trend (down 27.6% yoy), led by severe weakness in the domestic (down 27.2% yoy) and export (down 33.8% mom) volumes. On a mom basis though, sales surged 17.3%, mainly due to attractive incentives offered by the company in the passenger (up 16.7% mom) and commercial vehicle (up 17.4% mom) segments. While the LCV segment sustained its strong sales momentum, posting a growth of 12.5% yoy (12.2% mom); the MHCV and passenger vehicle (PV) segments reported a decline of 33.2% and 65.7% yoy respectively. Ashok Leyland (AL) reported in-line volumes (up 39.6% mom), driven by Dost sales, which registered a strong growth of 44.1% mom. Total volumes however, registered a decline of 1.9% yoy on account of weakness in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment, which declined by 19.7% yoy. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported in-line volumes, primarily driven by growth in the Super Compact (up 22% yoy and 9.6% mom) and UV (up 8.9% mom) segments led by Dzire and Ertiga, respectively. While total volumes registered a strong 9.5% mom growth, driven by a strong performance across segments; on a yoy basis volumes declined 4.8%, largely due to slowdown in demand for entry level cars. Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) reported an in-line volume growth of 7.7% yoy (10.4% mom), driven primarily by a 10.6% yoy (8.5% mom) growth in the automotive segment. The automotive segment growth was led by continued momentum in the PV segment (up 12.6% yoy), driven by the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton, and a strong growth of 17.1% yoy (13.5% mom) in the pick-up segment. The farm-equipment segment though reported a 0.3% yoy decline, which was in-line with our estimates, on account of a 2.3% yoy decline in domestic sales. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler manufacturers in our coverage universe reported a disappointing performance yet again, led by sluggish demand on the back of weak consumer sentiments. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered a steep decline of 10.2% yoy (9.4% mom) as domestic volumes posted a significant decline of 12.3% yoy. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) posted extremely poor volumes with total sales registering a decline of 11.4% yoy (6.6% mom), due to slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry. TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes (a decline of 8.2% yoy), primarily on account of continued slowdown in the two-wheeler segment (down 9.9% yoy).
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Yaresh Kothari
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Tata Motors
TTMT continued its downward slide led by severe weakness in PV and MHCV sales
TTMT registered slightly better-than-expected sales for March 2013, driven by record sales in the LCV segment (sustained its strong momentum and registered a growth of 12.5% yoy and 12.2% mom). On a mom basis, sales surged 17.3%, mainly due to attractive incentives offered by the company in the passenger (up 16.7% mom) and commercial vehicle (up 17.4% mom) segments. On a yoy basis however, total volumes declined by 27.6% yoy to 72,712 units, on account of a 27.2% and 33.8% yoy decline in the domestic and export volumes respectively. PV sales continued to remain subdued and registered a decline of 65.7% yoy, with passenger cars registering a decline of 69.6% yoy. CV sales too remained sluggish (down 4.4% yoy), on account of declining MHCV sales.
March 2013 72,712 15,416 44,256 59,672 3,594 9,446 13,040 3,552
March % chg 2012 100,414 (27.6) 23,088 (33.2) 39,348 62,436 12.5 (4.4)
FY2012 % chg 906,579 (10.6) 221,297 (31.1) 363,890 585,187 17.8 (0.7)
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Ashok Leyland
CV sales continue to remain under pressure led by slowdown in the industrial activity
AL reported in-line volumes (up 39.6% mom) in March 2013 with Dost volumes registering a strong mom growth of 44.1%. MHCV sales too posted a strong growth of 37.7% mom, probably on account of higher dispatches to the dealers. The total volumes however, registered a decline of 1.9% yoy, due to weakness in the CV segment, which declined by 19.7% yoy. Exports too recorded a decline of 47.1% yoy during the month.
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Maruti Suzuki
MSIL registered in-line performance led by the new launches, Dzire and Ertiga
MSIL reported in-line volumes, primarily driven by growth in the Super Compact (up 22% yoy and 9.6% mom) and UV (up 8.9% mom) segments, led by Dzire and Ertiga respectively. Total volumes for the month registered a decline of 4.8% yoy to 119,937 units largely due to slowdown in demand for entry levels cars and vans. As a result, the Mini and Vans segments witnessed a steep decline of 14.7% yoy and 23.6% yoy respectively. Export volumes too registered a decline of 8.9% yoy as demand in key export markets continues to remain weak. However, on a sequential basis, total volumes rose by a strong 9.5%, driven by a strong performance across segments.
107,890 112,724
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MM reported an in-line volume growth of 7.7% yoy (10.4% mom) to 69,234 units, driven primarily by a strong 10.6% yoy (8.5% mom) growth in the automotive segment. The automotive segment growth was driven by continued momentum in the PV segment (up 12.6% yoy and 10.4% mom) on the back of the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton, and a strong growth of 17.1% yoy (13.5% mom) in the pick-up segment. The three-wheeler (down 5.1% yoy) and export (flat yoy) segments however, witnessed sluggish growth during the month. In the tractor segment, MM reported a 0.3% yoy decline in volumes, which was in-line with our estimates, led by a 2.3% yoy decline in domestic sales. According to the Management, high interest rates and fuel prices continue to impact consumer sentiments, thereby affecting overall demand.
March 2013 69,234 25,847 17,212 4,831 1,335 2,679 51,904 15,551 1,779 17,330
March % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg 2012 64,294 7.7 787,257 718,586 9.6 22,961 14,696 5,089 2,659 46,919 15,920 1,455 17,375 12.6 279,274 220,056 17.1 174,233 152,673 (5.1) 0.8 65,510 11,902 32,456 67,440 29,177 26.9 14.1 (2.9) 11.2 16.6 (4.6) (4.9)
1,514 (11.8)
13,818 (13.9)
10.6 563,375 483,164 (2.3) 211,596 221,730 22.3 12,286 (0.3) 223,882 235,422
13,692 (10.3)
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Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported disappointing sales performance due to weak consumer sentiments in the domestic market
BJAUT registered extremely weak volumes, with performance across segments being sluggish. Total volumes registered a steep decline of 10.2% yoy (9.4% mom) to 301,231 units, as domestic volumes posted a significant decline of 12.3% yoy. While motorcycle sales declined by 11.2% yoy (8.3% mom), three-wheeler sales reported a decline of 1.4% yoy (16.8% mom). Export volumes too registered a decline of 5.9% yoy (25% mom), primarily on account of ~20,000 units being in transit. These would be reflected in sales in the month of April.
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Hero MotoCorp
HMCL posted lower-than-expected performance led by slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry
HMCL reported extremely poor volumes for the month with total sales registering a decline of 11.4% yoy (6.6% mom) to 468,283 units. According to the companys Management, the performance continues to be impacted by the ongoing slowdown in the industry, which in turn is due to the prevailing weak macro environment, higher fuel prices and negative consumer sentiments.
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% chg (2.6)
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TVS Motor
TVSLs performance continues to be impacted by the on-going slowdown and rising competition in the industry
TVSL reported lower-than-expected volumes, which declined by 8.2% yoy (flat mom) to 167,583 units. The weakness can be attributed to the continued slowdown in the two-wheeler segment (down 9.9% yoy) on account of a 6.3% (flat mom) and 25.7% yoy (4.4% mom) decline in motorcycle and scooter sales respectively. Three-wheeler sales however, maintained strong momentum and posted an impressive growth of 125.3% yoy (5.7% mom), driven by exports. The overall exports registered a strong growth of 12.8% yoy (6.6% mom), largely on account of strong growth in three-wheeler sales. The companys Management expects export volumes to touch a monthly run-rate of 28,00030,000 units within the next six months.
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Outlook
While the near-term environment continues to remain challenging for the automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance, remain intact. We continue to prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors.
Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on April 3, 2013; *Consolidated financials
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