STUDENT'S NAME. Abuja, Nigeria :, '' , ''.` | '' ' , . 04 Population /Land Use |' ', | COURSE/SEM. SCHOOL SUPERVISORS DATE Urban Design POPULATION PROJECTIONS Mathematical & Direct Method: Direct methods operate with past population records, usually population changes approx. to geometric progression.Graphical methods aremost useful for short-termprojectionswhendemographic changesshow stabletrends. Other methods of projecting population data are: Employment Method: Useof workerspopulationtoco-relatetotal city population. Ratio Method: Useof Changesinageographical areaasafunctionof thoseexperienced inwider areas, Male Female Both sexes Growth Rate 2006 733,172 673,067 1,406,239 9.3 778, 567 1,902,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2,087,921 2,291,413 2,514,738 2,759,829 3,028,807 3,324,000 source: (http://nigeria.unfpa.org/abuja.html).accessed, Jan 2013 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 YEARS POPULATION SIZE 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,500,000 FIG: CURVE SHOWING POPULATION INCREASE PROJECTED OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS Using the direct mathematical method of population projection, we have arrived at thecurveabovewhich explains how steep theincreaseshall bein thecoming 10 years. LAND USE AND DENSITY PROJECTIONS 60% of Abuja Population (2,800,000) livein 5 satelliteTowns 1,680,000 livein 5 satellitetowns. Assuming an annual population growth rateof 9.3 as given, I n 10 years time, by 2023: Abuja Population will =6,623,277 Now all things being equal, 60% or moreof thesewould still haveto livein satellitetowns. Therefore, 60% of 6,623,277 =3,973,966 (thisisthefigurewehavetoaccommodatein 10yrs) THE APPROACH I f weadopt a 5-phasedevelopment plan: Every 2 years wewould haveto providefor 3,973,966 / 5 =794,793 I nvariably, Every 6 months wewould havetoo cater for 794,793 / 4 which is =158,988 (approximately 160,000 persons giving allowancefor possibleincrease). CONCLUSI ON Thereforethesatellitetown would bedeveloped to cater for Housing needs of 100,000 persons.This represents morethan half of thepopulation demand whiletheremaining would be distributed evenly over theother satellitetowns and themain Abuja municipality. Development of thenew township would beconducted in phases. And in collaboration with industries and privateinvestors. FEASI BI LI TY CHECK Roughly: I block of (36nos.) 3BHK flats having averagedensity of 5 persons per dwelling unit would house 160 persons, thereforeabout 10 of such blocks can accomodate1,600 persons and 10 clusters of such blocks can accomodate16,000. (whichisclosetoour figure) andis feasibletoconstruct within6months) AT PRESENT, Sizeis thephysical extent of thecity or theareameasured in Sq.kms, whereas Density refers to thedistribution of population over theextent of thecity. Density can be calculated in several ways number oI people per square kilometer or number of dwelling units per squarekilometer etc. when development is well spread out over aland area= low density when development is compact on agiven land area= high density CATEGORY SUB - CATEGORY TYPI CAL DENSI TY HOUSI NG TYPE / DESCRI PTI ON RESI DENTI AL LOW DENSITY I NCOME LEVEL 10-15 DU/AC high income earners attached (and detatched) g+1 housing models This classification is characterized by single family residential development ranging from large lot with on-site well and septic systems MEDIUM DENSITY 20-30 DU/AC above average & middle income earners 3bhk housing models This classification is characterized by townhouse and condominium development HIGH DENSITY 35-45 DU/AC low income earners 1bhk & 2bhk housing models This classification would permit multi-story multifamily housing COMMERCI AL NEIGHBOURHOOD COMMERCIAL COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL REGIONAL COMMERCIAL 20,000 sf/ac 12,500 sf/ac 10,000 sf/ac this classification is to provide neighborhood commercial services. These areas contain act as local centers of economic activity. supports retail, office, or institutional uses that serve multiple neighborhoods, but generally do not attract residents from outside the area. An example includes neighborhood shopping centers. reserved for large scale shopping centers and regional malls, big box retailers, entertainment centers and similar retail uses that have the potential to attract consumers from major portions of the city, MI XED-USE NEIGHBORHOOD MIXED-USE COMMUNITY MIXED-USE REGIONAL MIXED-USE includes residential units located either above and/or next to the commercial, office, or institutional uses. OFFI CI AL / ADMI NSTRATI VE LIGHT INDUSRIAL 12,500 sf/ac Light industrial uses should be located within industrial parks,with rail and highway access and in limited locations on major arterials but not within close proximity of residential uses. Typical uses include light assembly, fabrication, warehouse flex etc. I NDUSRI AL I NSTI TUI ONAL AGRI CULTURE 10,000 - 15,000 sf/ac all government offices, courts, police stations, police posts, etc Institutional uses include schools, health intitutions, Hotels and houses of worship. RECREATI ONAL open spaces, parks, Theatres, Hotels,Restaurants, Bars etc Agriculture includes the full range of agricultural activities consistent with city health and nuisance requirements, including cropland and animal husbandry. PROJ ECTED LAND SI ZE At amax net density of 45du/ac, and assumingapopulation of 5personsper dwellingUnit, 45x 5=225persons/acr thereforefor atarget pop. of 100,000: 100,000/225=444acr approx. 450acres(or more) excludinglandfor agricultureandcommercial activities PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT P R O D U C E D
B Y
A N
A U T O D E S K
E D U C A T I O N A L
P R O D U C T P R O D U C E D B Y A N A U T O D E S K E D U C A T I O N A L P R O D U C T P R O D U C E D