Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

The biggest threat to global stability is the potential for food crises in poor countries to cause government collapse
By Lester R. Brown

In Brief

Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poor countries into chaos. Such failed states can export disease, terrorism, illicit drugs, weapons and refugees. Water shortages, soil losses and rising temperatures from global warming are placing severe limits on food production. Without massive and rapid intervention to address these three environmental factors, the author argues, a series of government collapses could threaten the world order.

One of the toughest things for people to do is to anticipate sudden change. Typically we project the future by extrapolating from trends in the past. Much of the time this approach works well. But sometimes it fails spectacularly, and people are simply blindsided by events such as todays economic crisis. For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make us heed a warning so direand how would we go about responding to it? We are so inured to a long list of highly unlikely catastrophes that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the hand: Sure, our civilization might devolve into chaos and Earth might collide with an asteroid, too! For many years I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization. I can no longer ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economymost important, falling watertables, eroding soils and rising temperaturesforces me to conclude that such a collapse is possible. The Problem of Failed States Even a cursory look at the vital signs of our current world order lends unwelcome support to my conclusion. And those of us in the environmental field are well into

our third decade of charting trends of environmental decline without seeing any significant effort to reverse a single one. In six of the past nine years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown in stocks. When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new harvest begins) were at 62 days of consumption, a near record low. In response, world grain prices in the spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever. As demand for food rises faster than supplies are growing, the resulting food-price inflation puts severe stress on the governments of countries already teetering on the edge of chaos. Unable to buy grain or grow their own, hungry people take to the streets. Indeed, even before the steep climb in grain prices in 2008, the number of failing states was expanding [Purchase the digital edition to see related sidebar]. Many of their problems stem from a failure to slow the growth of their populations. But if the food situation continues to deteriorate, entire nations will break down at an ever increasing rate. We have entered a new era in geopolitics. In the 20th century the main threat to international security was superpower conflict; today it is failing states. It is not the concentration of power but its absence that puts us at risk. States fail when national governments can no longer provide personal security, food security and basic social services such as education and health care. They often lose control of part or all of their territory. When governments lose their monopoly on power, law and order begin to disintegrate. After a point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief workers are no longer safe and their programs are halted; in Somalia and Afghanistan, deteriorating conditions have already put such programs in jeopardy. Failing states are of international concern because they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees, threatening political stability everywhere. Somalia, number one on the 2008 list of failing states, has become a base for piracy. Iraq, number five, is a hotbed for terrorist training. Afghanistan, number seven, is the worlds leading supplier of heroin. Following the massive genocide of 1994 in Rwanda, refugees from that troubled state, thousands of armed soldiers among them, helped to destabilize neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (number six). Our global civilization depends on a functioning network of politically healthy nation-states to control the spread of infectious disease, to manage the international monetary system, to control international terrorism and to reach scores of other

common goals. If the system for controlling infectious diseasessuch as polio, SARS or avian flubreaks down, humanity will be in trouble. Once states fail, no one assumes responsibility for their debt to outside lenders. If enough states disintegrate, their fall will threaten the stability of global civilization itself. A New Kind of Food Shortage The surge in world grain prices in 2007 and 2008and the threat they pose to foodsecurityhas a different, more troubling quality than the increases of the past. During the second half of the 20th century, grain prices rose dramatically several times. In 1972, for instance, the Soviets, recognizing their poor harvest early, quietly cornered the world wheat market. As a result, wheat prices elsewhere more than doubled, pulling rice and corn prices up with them. But this and other price shocks were event-drivendrought in the Soviet Union, a monsoon failure in India, cropshrinking heat in the U.S. Corn Belt. And the rises were short-lived: prices typically returned to normal with the next harvest. In contrast, the recent surge in world grain prices is trend-driven, making it unlikely to reverse without a reversal in the trends themselves. On the demand side, those trends include the ongoing addition of more than 70 million people a year; a growing number of people wanting to move up the food chain to consume highly grainintensive livestock products [see The Greenhouse Hamburger, by Nathan Fiala;Scientific American, February 2009]; and the massive diversion of U.S. grain to ethanol-fuel distilleries. The extra demand for grain associated with rising affluence varies widely among countries. People in low-income countries where grain supplies 60 percent of calories, such as India, directly consume a bit more than a pound of grain a day. In affluent countries such as the U.S. and Canada, grain consumption per person is nearly four times that much, though perhaps 90 percent of it is consumed indirectly as meat, milk and eggs from grain-fed animals. The potential for further grain consumption as incomes rise among low-income consumers is huge. But that potential pales beside the insatiable demand for cropbased automotive fuels. A fourth of this years U.S. grain harvestenough to feed 125 million Americans or half a billion Indians at current consumption levelswill go to fuel cars. Yet even if the entire U.S. grain harvest were diverted into making ethanol, it would meet at most 18 percent of U.S. automotive fuel needs. The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV tank with ethanol could feed one person for a year. The recent merging of the food and energy economies implies that if the food value of grain is less than its fuel value, the market will move the grain into the energy

economy. That double demand is leading to an epic competition between cars and people for the grain supply and to a political and moral issue of unprecedented dimensions. The U.S., in a misguided effort to reduce its dependence on foreign oil by substituting grain-based fuels, is generating global food insecurity on a scale not seen before. Water Shortages Mean Food Shortages What about supply? The three environmental trends I mentioned earlierthe shortage of freshwater, the loss of topsoil and the rising temperatures (and other effects) of global warmingare making it increasingly hard to expand the worlds grain supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Of all those trends, however, the spread of water shortages poses the most immediate threat. The biggest challenge here is irrigation, which consumes 70 percent of the worlds freshwater. Millions of irrigation wells in many countries are now pumping water out of underground sources faster than rainfall can recharge them. The result is falling water tables in countries populated by half the worlds people, including the three big grain producersChina, India and the U.S. Usually aquifers are replenishable, but some of the most important ones are not: the fossil aquifers, so called because they store ancient water and are not recharged by precipitation. For theseincluding the vast Ogallala Aquifer that underlies the U.S. Great Plains, the Saudi aquifer and the deep aquifer under the North China Plain depletion would spell the end of pumping. In arid regions such a loss could also bring an end to agriculture altogether. In China the water table under the North China Plain, an area that produces more than half of the countrys wheat and a third of its corn, is falling fast. Overpumping has used up most of the water in a shallow aquifer there, forcing well drillers to turn to the regions deep aquifer, which is not replenishable. A report by the World Bank foresees catastrophic consequences for future generations unless water use and supply can quickly be brought back into balance. As water tables have fallen and irrigation wells have gone dry, Chinas wheat crop, the worlds largest, has declined by 8 percent since it peaked at 123 million tons in 1997. In that same period Chinas rice production dropped 4 percent. The worlds most populous nation may soon be importing massive quantities of grain. But water shortages are even more worrying in India. There the margin between food consumption and survival is more precarious. Millions of irrigation wells have dropped water tables in almost every state. As Fred Pearce reported in New Scientist:

Half of Indias traditional hand-dug wells and millions of shallower tube wells have already dried up, bringing a spate of suicides among those who rely on them. Electricity blackouts are reaching epidemic proportions in states where half of the electricity is used to pump water from depths of up to a kilometer [3,300 feet]. A World Bank study reports that 15 percent of Indias food supply is produced by mining groundwater. Stated otherwise, 175 million Indians consume grain produced with water from irrigation wells that will soon be exhausted. The continued shrinking of water supplies could lead to unmanageable food shortages and social conflict. Less Soil, More Hunger The scope of the second worrisome trendthe loss of topsoilis also startling. Topsoil is eroding faster than new soil forms on perhaps a third of the worlds cropland. This thin layer of essential plant nutrients, the very foundation of civilization, took long stretches of geologic time to build up, yet it is typically only about six inches deep. Its loss from wind and water erosion doomed earlier civilizations. In 2002 a U.N. team assessed the food situation in Lesotho, the small, landlocked home of two million people embedded within South Africa. The teams finding was straightforward: Agriculture in Lesotho faces a catastrophic future; crop production is declining and could cease altogether over large tracts of the country if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion, degradation and the decline in soil fertility. In the Western Hemisphere, Haitione of the first states to be recognized as failing was largely self-sufficient in grain 40 years ago. In the years since, though, it has lost nearly all its forests and much of its topsoil, forcing the country to import more than half of its grain. The third and perhaps most pervasive environmental threat to food securityrising surface temperaturecan affect crop yields everywhere. In many countries crops are grown at or near their thermal optimum, so even a minor temperature rise during the growing season can shrink the harvest. A study published by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has confirmed a rule of thumb among crop ecologists: for every rise of one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the norm, wheat, rice and corn yields fall by 10 percent.

In the past, most famously when the innovations in the use of fertilizer, irrigation and high-yield varieties of wheat and rice created the green revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, the response to the growing demand for food was the successful application of scientific agriculture: the technological fix. This time, regrettably, many of the most productive advances in agricultural technology have already been put into practice, and so the long-term rise in land productivity is slowing down. Between 1950 and 1990 the worlds farmers increased the grain yield per acre by more than 2 percent a year, exceeding the growth of population. But since then, the annual growth in yield has slowed to slightly more than 1 percent. In some countries the yields appear to be near their practical limits, including rice yields in Japan and China. Some commentators point to genetically modified crop strains as a way out of our predicament. Unfortunately, however, no genetically modified crops have led to dramatically higher yields, comparable to the doubling or tripling of wheat and rice yields that took place during the green revolution. Nor do they seem likely to do so, simply because conventional plant-breeding techniques have already tapped most of the potential for raising crop yields. Jockeying for Food As the worlds food security unravels, a dangerous politics of food scarcity is coming into play: individual countries acting in their narrowly defined self-interest are actually worsening the plight of the many. The trend began in 2007, when leading wheat-exporting countries such as Russia and Argentina limited or banned their exports, in hopes of increasing locally available food supplies and thereby bringing down food prices domestically. Vietnam, the worlds second-biggest rice exporter after Thailand, banned its exports for several months for the same reason. Such moves may reassure those living in the exporting countries, but they are creating panic in importing countries that must rely on what is then left of the worlds exportable grain. In response to those restrictions, grain importers are trying to nail down long-term bilateral trade agreements that would lock up future grain supplies. The Philippines, no longer able to count on getting rice from the world market, recently negotiated a three-year deal with Vietnam for a guaranteed 1.5 million tons of rice each year. Food-import anxiety is even spawning entirely new efforts by food-importing countries to buy or lease farmland in other countries [Purchase the digital edition to see related sidebar].

In spite of such stopgap measures, soaring food prices and spreading hunger in many other countries are beginning to break down the social order. In several provinces of Thailand the predations of rice rustlers have forced villagers to guard their rice fields at night with loaded shotguns. In Pakistan an armed soldier escorts each grain truck. During the first half of 2008, 83 trucks carrying grain in Sudan were hijacked before reaching the Darfur relief camps. No country is immune to the effects of tightening food supplies, not even the U.S., the worlds breadbasket. If China turns to the world market for massive quantities of grain, as it has recently done for soybeans, it will have to buy from the U.S. For U.S. consumers, that would mean competing for the U.S. grain harvest with 1.3 billion Chinese consumers with fast-rising incomesa nightmare scenario. In such circumstances, it would be tempting for the U.S. to restrict exports, as it did, for instance, with grain and soybeans in the 1970s when domestic prices soared. But that is not an option with China. Chinese investors now hold well over a trillion U.S. dollars, and they have often been the leading international buyers of U.S. Treasury securities issued to finance the fiscal deficit. Like it or not, U.S. consumers will share their grain with Chinese consumers, no matter how high food prices rise. Plan B: Our Only Option Since the current world food shortage is trend-driven, the environmental trends that cause it must be reversed. To do so requires extraordinarily demanding measures, a monumental shift away from business as usualwhat we at the Earth Policy Institute call Plan Ato a civilization-saving Plan B. [see "Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization," at www.earthpoli cy.org/Books/PB3/] Similar in scale and urgency to the U.S. mobilization for World War II, Plan B has four components: a massive effort to cut carbon emissions by 80 percent from their 2006 levels by 2020; the stabilization of the worlds population at eight billion by 2040; the eradication of poverty; and the restoration of forests, soils and aquifers. Net carbon dioxide emissions can be cut by systematically raising energy efficiency and investing massively in the development of renewable sources of energy. We must also ban deforestation worldwide, as several countries already have done, and plant billions of trees to sequester carbon. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable forms of energy can be driven by imposing a tax on carbon, while offsetting it with a reduction in income taxes. Stabilizing population and eradicating poverty go hand in hand. In fact, the key to accelerating the shift to smaller families is eradicating povertyand vice versa. One

way is to ensure at least a primary school education for all children, girls as well as boys. Another is to provide rudimentary, village-level health care, so that people can be confident that their children will survive to adulthood. Women everywhere need access to reproductive health care and family-planning services. The fourth component, restoring the earths natural systems and resources, incorporates a worldwide initiative to arrest the fall in water tables by raising water productivity: the useful activity that can be wrung from each drop. That implies shifting to more efficient irrigation systems and to more water-efficient crops. In some countries, it implies growing (and eating) more wheat and less rice, a waterintensive crop. And for industries and cities, it implies doing what some are doing already, namely, continuously recycling water. At the same time, we must launch a worldwide effort to conserve soil, similar to the U.S. response to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Terracing the ground, planting trees as shelterbelts against windblown soil erosion, and practicing minimum tillagein which the soil is not plowed and crop residues are left on the fieldare among the most important soil-conservation measures. There is nothing new about our four interrelated objectives. They have been discussed individually for years. Indeed, we have created entire institutions intended to tackle some of them, such as the World Bank to alleviate poverty. And we have made substantial progress in some parts of the world on at least one of themthe distribution of family-planning services and the associated shift to smaller families that brings population stability. For many in the development community, the four objectives of Plan B were seen as positive, promoting development as long as they did not cost too much. Others saw them as humanitarian goalspolitically correct and morally appropriate. Now a third and far more momentous rationale presents itself: meeting these goals may be necessary to prevent the collapse of our civilization. Yet the cost we project for saving civilization would amount to less than $200 billion a year, a sixth of current global military spending. In effect, Plan B is the new security budget. Time: Our Scarcest Resource Our challenge is not only to implement Plan B but also to do it quickly. The world is in a race between political tipping points and natural ones. Can we close coal-fired powerplants fast enough to prevent the Greenland ice sheet from slipping into the sea and inundating our coastlines? Can we cut carbon emissions fast enough to save the mountain glaciers of Asia? During the dry season their meltwaters sustain the

major rivers of India and Chinaand by extension, hundreds of millions of people. Can we stabilize population before countries such as India, Pakistan and Yemen are overwhelmed by shortages of the water they need to irrigate their crops? It is hard to overstate the urgency of our predicament. [For the most thorough and authoritative scientific assessment of global climate change, see "Climate Change 2007. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," available at www.ipcc.ch] Every day counts. Unfortunately, we do not know how long we can light our cities with coal, for instance, before Greenlands ice sheet can no longer be saved. Nature sets the deadlines; nature is the timekeeper. But we human beings cannot see the clock. We desperately need a new way of thinking, a new mind-set. The thinking that got us into this bind will not get us out. When Elizabeth Kolbert, a writer for the New Yorker, asked energy guru Amory Lovins about thinking outside the box, Lovins responded: There is no box. There is no box. That is the mind-set we need if civilization is to survive.

Afghanistan and African nations at greatest risk from world food shortages
Russian heatwave and floods in Pakistan threaten supplies for basic human diet

Katie Allen The Guardian, Thursday 19 August 2010 Pakistan's devastating floods highlight how climate change is having "a profound effect on global food security". Photograph: Horace Murray/Reuters

Soaring commodity prices and natural disasters in Russia and Pakistan have combined to put African nations and conflict-ridden countries such as Afghanistan most at risk from food shortages, according to a report released today. Sharp price rises for wheat and other grains will hit the world's neediest countries hardest, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, as they grapple with their own poor harvests and failing transport networks, according to a food security index by risk management consultancy Maplecroft. It also says conflict is a key factor behind food insecurity and Afghanistan tops the index of threatened countries. The other nine nations categorised as "extreme risk" are all in Africa, led by Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia. African nations make up 36 of the 50 countries most at risk in the index.

The report highlights climate change as having a "profound effect on global food security", with a heatwave in Russia coinciding with devastating floods in Pakistan ranked 30th and "high risk" in the index. "Russian brakes on exports, plus a reduction in Canada's harvest by almost a quarter due to flooding in June, are provoking fluctuations in the commodity markets," said Fiona Place, environmental analyst at Maplecroft. "This will further affect the food security of the most vulnerable countries." Using 12 criteria developed with the World Food Programme, including GDP per head and cereal production and imports, Maplecroft's index evaluated risks to the supply of basic food staples for 163 countries. Finland was least at risk, while the UK was ranked 146th. The latest official inflation data for Britain this week suggested that recent disruptions in the wheat market have yet to feed through to consumers. Economists are warning households in Britain and around the world to prepare for more price rises in staples such as bread following Russia's ban on wheat exports after drought has cost the country much of its latest crop. Wheat prices have risen by about 70% since June and other crop prices have also climbed. TEN EXTREME RISK COUNTRIES 1 Afghanistan 2 Democratic Republic of Congo 3 Burundi 4 Eritrea 5 Sudan 6 Ethiopia 7 Angola 8 Liberia 9 Chad 10 Zimbabwe

7 Reasons Food Shortages Will Become a Global Crisis

Activist Post Food inflation is here and it's here to stay. We can see it getting worse every time we buy groceries. Basic food commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice have been skyrocketing since July, 2010 torecord highs. These sustained price increases are only expected to continue as food production

shortfalls really begin to take their toll this year and beyond. This summer Russia banned exports of wheat to ensure their nation's supply, which sparked complaints of protectionism. The U.S. agriculture community is already talking about rationing corn over ethanol mandates versus supply concerns. We've seen nothing yet in terms of food protectionism. Global food shortages have forced emergency meetings at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization where they claim "urgent action" is needed. They point to extreme weather as the main contributing factor to the growing food shortages. However, commodity speculation has also been targeted as one of the culprits. It seems that the crisis would also present the perfect opportunity and the justification for the large GMO food companies to force their products into skeptical markets like in Europe and Japan, as recently leaked cables suggest. One thing is for sure; food shortages will likely continue to get worse and eventually become a full-scale global food crisis. Here are seven reasons why food shortages are here to stay on a worldwide scale: 1. Extreme Weather: Extreme weather has been a major problem for global food; from summer droughts and heat waves that devastated Russias wheat crop to the ongoing catastrophes from 'biblical flooding' in Australia and Pakistan. And it doesnt end there. An extreme winter cold snap and snow has struck the whole of Europe and the United States. Staple crops are failing in all of these regions making an already fragile harvest in 2010 even more critical into 2011. Based on the recent past, extreme weather conditions are only likely to continue and perhaps worsen in the coming years. 2. Bee Colony Collapse: The Guardian reported this week on the USDA's study on bee colony decline in the United States: "The abundance of four common species of bumblebee in the US has dropped by 96% in just the past few decades." It is generally understood that bees pollinate around 90% of the world's commercial crops. Obviously, if these numbers are remotely close to accurate, then our natural food supply is in serious trouble. Luckily for us, the GMO giants have seeds thatdon't require open pollination to bear fruit.

3. Collapsing Dollar: Commodity speculation has resulted in massive food inflation that is already creating crisis levelsin poor regions in the world. Food commodity prices have soared to record highs mainly because they trade in the ever-weakening dollar. Traders will point to the circumstances described in this article to justify their gambles, but also that food represents a tangible investment in an era of worthless paper. Because the debt problems in the United States are only getting worse, and nations such as China and Russia are dropping the dollaras their trade vehicle, the dollar will continue to weaken, further driving all commodity prices higher. 4. Regulatory Crackdown: Even before the FDA was given broad new powers to regulate food in the recent Food Safety Modernization Act, small farms were being raided and regulated out of business. Now, the new food bill essentially puts food safety under the direction of the Department of Homeland Security where the food cartel uses the government to further consolidate their control over the industry. Militant police action is taken against farmers suspected of falling short on quality regulations. It is the power to intimidate innocent small farmers out of the business. 5. Rising oil prices: In 2008, record oil prices that topped $147 per barrel drove food prices to new highs. Rice tripled in 6 months during the surge of oil prices, along with other food commodities. The price of oil affects food on multiple levels; from plowing fields, fertilizers and pesticides, to harvesting and hauling. Flash forward to 2011: many experts are predicting that oil may reach upwards of $150-

$200 per barrel in the months ahead. As oil closed out 2010 at its 2-year highs of $95/bbl, it is likely on pace to continue climbing. Again, a weakening dollar will also play its part in driving oil prices, and consequently, food prices to crisis levels. 6. Increased Soil Pollution: Geo-engineering has been taking place on a grand scale in the United States for decades now. Previously known in conspiracy circles as 'chemtrailing,' the government has now admitted to these experiments claiming they are plan "B" to combat global warming. The patents involved in this spraying are heavy in aluminum. This mass aluminum contamination is killing plants and trees and making the soil sterile to most crops. In an astonishing coincidence, GMO companies have patented aluminum-resistant seeds to save the day. 7. GMO Giants: Because of growing awareness of the health affects of GM foods, several countries have rejected planting them. Therefore, they would seem to need a food crisis to be seen as the savior in countries currently opposed to their products. A leakedWikiLeaks cable confirms that this is indeed the strategy for GMO giants, where trade secretaries reportedly noted that commodity price hikes might spur greater liberalization on biotech imports. Since GMO giants already contr ol much of the food supply, it seems they can also easily manipulate prices to achieve complete global control of food. The equation is actually quite simple: food is a relatively inelastic commodity in terms of demand. In other words, people need to eat no matter how bad the economy gets. Thus, demand can be basically measured by the size of the population. Therefore, as demand remains steady while the 7 supply pressures outlined above continue to worsen, food prices will have only one place to go -- up, up, and up. As international agencies scramble to find "solutions," their energy may be just as well spent on questioning if this famine scenario is being purposely manipulated for profits. Regardless, the average person would be very wise to stock up on food staples as an investment, and frankly to survive the worsening food crisis.

5 Simple Ways To Prepare For The Coming Food Crisis

Activist Post Recently there has been an incredible flurry of news reporting about food shortages and the pending global food crisis. Everyone who looks at the indicators would agree that this crisis is only likely to worsen. It is estimated that the Australia floods alone could cause a 30% jump in food prices. Although the average shopper already can feel the food inflation, it is difficult to recognize the severity of the looming food shortages. After all, there are still 15 types of colorfully-boxed Cheerios packing the isles, which gives us the illusion of abundance. The truth is that we are headed for large food production shortfalls, manipulated or not, while middleclass food demand grows massively in the developing world. For decades the world's agriculture community produced more than enough food to feed the planet, yet some now believe we are reaching "Peak Food" production levels. In turn, other experts believe the "food bubble" is about to burst, and not even the biotech companies can save us. However, there are still vast unused stretches of fertile land that can be used around the globe, and the U.S. ethanol mandates that reportedly consume at least 25% of the corn harvest could be reduced to ease the burden. Therefore, it seems that despite the extreme weather and dwindling harvests, food production still has room to increase, but not without foresight and planning.

Additionally, the current systems for growing food are fully dependent on oil to achieve high levels of production, while livestock production is running at full concentration-camp capacity; the end product must then travel thousands of miles to get to store shelves. Clearly we can see the fragile nature of this system, especially on human health and the environment. Consequently, solving the so-called "food crisis" is far more complex than simply fixing statistical supply and demand issues. Indeed, these are turbulent times where humanity appears to be nearing Peak Everything . Ultimately, solutions to the food crisis will begin at the local level. There are cutting-edge farming techniques gaining popularity that produce a large variety of crops by mimicking nature, as well as innovative techniques for small-scale food production at home or in urban buildings. These hold promise for easing local hunger. Personal ways to protect yourself from food shortages may seem obvious to some, but many feel the task can be insurmountable. To the contrary, here are 5 simple ways to protect yourself from the coming food crisis: 1. Create a Food Bank: Everyone should have a back-up to the everyday food pantry. In this environment, you should consider your personal food bank far more valuable than a dollar savings account. Start by picking up extra canned goods, dried foods, and other essentials for storage each time you go to the store. Also, hunt for coupons and shop for deals when they come up. Devise a plan for FIFO (first in, first out) rotation for your food bank. It is advisable to acquire food-grade bins to store your bulk dried foods, and be sure to label and date everything. Besides the obvious store-able foods like rice and beans, or canned goods, some other important items to hoard are salt, peanut butter, cooking oils, sugar, coffee, and powdered milk. If you don't believe the food crisis will be too severe, then buy items that you would eat on a normal daily basis. But if you believe the crisis will be sustained for some time, purchasing a grain mill to refine bulk wheat or corn may prove to be the most economical way to stretch your food bank. Some emergency MREsare also something to consider because they have a long shelf life. 2. Produce Your Own Food: Having some capacity to produce your own food will simply become a necessity as the food system crumbles. If you don't know much about gardening, then start small with a few garden boxes for tomatoes, herbs, or sprouting and keep expanding to the limits of your garden. And for goodness sakes, get some chickens. They are a supremely easy animal to maintain and come with endless benefits from providing eggs and meat, to eating bugs and producing rich manure. Five laying hens will ensure good cheap protein for the whole family. If you have limited growing space, there are brilliant aquaculture systems that can produce an abundance of fish and vegetables in a small area. Aquaponics is a contained organic hydroponic system where the fertilized waste water from the fish tank is pumped through the vegetable growing trays which absorb the nutrients before returning clean water to the fish tank. Set high goals for independent food production, but start with what's manageable. 3. Learn Food Preservation: Food preservation comes in many forms such as canning, pickling, and dehydrating. In every case some tools and materials are required along with a good deal of knowledge. If you can afford a dehydrator, they all usually come with a preparation guide for most foods. You can also purchase a vacuum sealer if you have the means. A good vacuum sealershould come with thorough instructions and storage tips, and will add months if not years to many food items. If you're a beginner at canning, start with tomatoes first. It's easy and very valuable when all your tomatoes ripen at the same time and you want fresh pasta sauce in the winter. A bigger ticket item that is nice to have for food preservation is a DC solar powered chest freezer. It is the ultimate treasure chest.

4. Store Seeds: The government and the elite have seed banks and so should you. Seeds have been a viable currency in many civilizations past and present. They represent food when scarcity hits. Before the rise of commercial seed giants like Monsanto, local gardeners were adept at selecting seeds from the healthiest plants, saving them, and introducing them to the harvest for the following year, thus strengthening the species. Through local adaptation to pests, genetic diversity was further ensured; it was long-term thinking at its finest. That is why it is important to find heirloom seed banks and learn to save seeds from each harvest. 5. Join or Start a Local Co-Op: Joining local cooperatives is very important, especially when food shortages occur. You may not be able to provide for yourself completely, especially in terms of variety, so having a community mechanism to spread the burden and share the spoils will be critical. If you don't know if you have a local food cooperative in your area you can search the directory atLocalHarvest.org. You may also be able to get information from your local farmers market. If your area doesn't have a co-op, then start one. These co-ops don't have to be big or elaborate. In fact, it may be more optimal to organize it with friends, neighbors, or co-workers. Whether you join or start a cooperative, work to expand the participants and products.

COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD (total: 35 countries)

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Shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

Widespread lack of access

Severe localized food insecurity

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS (total: 1 countries)

Table View

COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD (total: 35 countries)

Countries in crisis requiring external assistance for food are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. The list below covers crises related to lack of food availability, widespread lack of access to food, or severe but localized problems. However, many countries are also severely affected by high food and fuel prices. These include countries which are large net importers of cereals and fuels, with generally low per capita incomes, relatively high levels of malnutrition, and for which there is a strong transmission of high international food prices1.

Click on country to see details in the GIEWS Country Briefs

AFRICA ( 28 countries )
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Nature of Food Insecurity

Main Reasons

Changes from last report2

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

Erratic rains and extended dry spells throughout the growing season caused cereal production to fall by nearly 20 percent in 2011. Cereal prices increased sharply across the country. About 1.7 million people are estimated to be at risk of food insecurity. Massive influx of refugees from Mali has put additional pressure on already tight local food markets

Burkina Faso

Chad

Irregular rains and extended dry spells led to a sharp decline in cereal and pasture output in 2011 in both the southern Sudanian and northern Sahelian zones of the country. Cereal production dropped by 49 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year. Moreover, large numbers of refugees are located in southern and eastern regions of Chad (over 300 000 people from the Sudan's Darfur region and the Central African Republic). Also, the return of an estimated 79 000 Chadians from Libya is putting additional pressure on the local food supply Cereal production is officially estimated to have dropped by 56 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year. Production shortfalls and high food prices led to a deterioration of the food security situation in several parts of the country. About 500 000 people are estimated to be seriously affected Civil strife and insecurity in northern Mali forced over 190 000 people to leave the country and seek refuge in neighbouring countries, while 200 000 more were internally displaced as of early May. This has worsened the already precarious food security situation created by last years poor harvest. Cereal production declined by 10 percent in 2011 compared to 2010, leaving about 3 million people at risk of food insecurity Cereal production dropped by 34 percent in 2011 due to poor distribution of rainfall. Pasture conditions were also severely affected in the pastoral and agropastoral zones of the country. The country is also affected by high international food prices due to its high import dependency. About 700 000 people are estimated to be at risk of food insecurity. Moreover, 64 000 Malian refugees have been registered in the small town of Fassala in the southeastern part of the country, as of early May 2012 After the severe food crisis that struck the country in 2009/10, erratic rains and extended dry spells throughout the growing season led to a sharp decline in 2011 cereal and pasture output. In addition, large numbers of refugees and returning national migrant workers from Libya and Mali placed an increasing demand on food: 5.5 million people are estimated to be at risk of food insecurity Dry spells in late 2011 and early 2012 are expected to result in a 31 percent decrease in cereal production, particularly impacting southern areas, which were also affected by poor harvests in 2011. However, economic stability has improved the country s import capacity, while sizeable carryover stocks will help stabilise domestic supplies

Gambia

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Zimbabwe

Widespread lack of access

Djibouti About 300 000 people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance due to high food prices and several consecutive poor rainy seasons affecting pastoralists Vulnerability to food insecurity due to economic constraints and high international food and fuel prices Slow recovery from war-related damage. Inadequate social services and infrastructure, as well as poor market access and high food prices. Massive influx of refugees from Cte dIvoire: about 67 000 Ivorian refugees were still living in Liberia as of mid -May 2012 Slow recovery from war-related damage. Depreciation of currency led to higher inflation rates negatively affecting households purchasing power and food security conditions

Eritrea

Liberia

Sierra Leone

Severe localized food insecurity

Burundi Poor rains in 2012 expected to result in a successive poor harvest, while persistent high

food prices continue to erode purchasing power of low-income households Conflict-related damage to agriculture in recent years and the lack of support services mainly in the northern regions. The recent post-election crisis has forced thousands of people to leave the country and seek refuge, mostly in eastern Liberia, where about 67 000 Ivorian refugees were still living as of mid-May 2012 About 400 000 individuals in need of relief food assistance due to production shortfalls in some northern areas Civil conflict and insecurity caused the displacement of more than 100 000 individuals and restricted access to agricultural land and food Influx of more than 100 000 refugees since the end of 2009, mostly from DRC, has increased pressure on limited local food resources Civil conflict has displaced an estimated 2 million people, hindering agricultural activities, while high food prices continue to impede food access. A total of 4.5 million are estimated to be in food and livelihood crisis About 3.2 million people are in need of relief food assistance due to lingering effects of the 2011 drought in southern and southeastern pastoral areas and in some secondary belg season crop producing areas Access to food is negatively affected by high food prices and general inflation Acute food insecure population is estimated at 2.2 million (plus about 555 000 refugees) in agropastoralist areas in northern, southeastern and coastal districts that had three to four consecutive dry seasons Poor rains and late planting likely to result in poor harvest, while increasing cereal prices aggravate food insecurity conditions for low-income households Cyclones in early 2012 damaged homesteads and crops, deteriorating food security conditions of the affected populations, particularly in eastern districts Rapid rise in maize prices aggravated food insecurity conditions in southern areas in early 2012, while recent currency devaluation worsens food access of affected households An estimated 146 500 people require assistance, mostly in central provinces, following weather-related shocks that negatively affected production during the 2011/12 season Production shortfalls and high food prices led to a deterioration of the food security situation in several parts of the country About 2.3 million people are in need of emergency assistance due to the past severe drought, the ongoing civil conflict and limitations in delivering humanitarian assistance About 3.2 million people are estimated to be food insecure due to low cereal production in 2011, civil insecurity, trade restrictions, high food prices and increasing demand by IDPs and returnees About 4.7 million people are in need of food assistance (including about 2 million IDPs in Darfur) due to a very low 2011 cereal production, civil insecurity (mainly in South

Cte d'Ivoire

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Congo

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Guinea

Kenya

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Senegal

Somalia

South Sudan

Sudan

Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur) and high food prices

No change

Improving

Deteriorating

+ New entry

ASIA ( 6 countries )
Map View

Nature of Food Insecurity

Main Reasons

Changes from last report2

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

Iraq Severe civil insecurity

Widespread lack of access

Democratic People's Republic of Korea In spite of the improved food production in 2011, economic constraints, late season floods and lack of agricultural inputs continue to lead to inadequate food supplies The severely food insecure population in need of emergency food assistance is estimated at about 5 million people as a result of high levels of poverty, prolonged conflict and high food and fuel prices

Yemen

Severe localized food insecurity

Drought, conflict, insecurity and high food prices. Moderately food insecure areas are in the centre and northeast of the country. The poor 2011 wheat harvest has exacerbated food insecurity Lingering effects of socio-political conflict since June 2010 in Jalalabad, Osh and Batken Oblasts hinder access to food and causing vulnerability and tension An estimated 1 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance due to the impact of the prolonged social unrest on household economy and food distribution channels in several markets

Afghanistan

Kyrgyzstan

Syrian Arab Republic

No change

Improving

Deteriorating

+ New entry

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ( 1 country )

Map View

Nature of Food Insecurity

Main Reasons

Changes from last report2

Severe localized food insecurity

Haiti

Lingering effects of devastating earthquake of January 2010. Food insecurity deteriorates with an increase in the cholera fatalities associated with the onset of the rainy season in April 2012

No change

Improving

Deteriorating

+ New entry

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS (total: 1 countries)

Map View

Country Main Reasons

Changes from last report2 AFRICA ( 1 country )

Morocco

Erratic and insufficient rains during late 2011 and early 2012 are expected to reduce crop production

No change

Improving

Deteriorating

+ New entry

TERMINOLOGY Countries requiring external assistance for food are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. Food crises are nearly always due to a combination of factors, but for the purpose of response planning, it is important to establish whether the nature of food crises is predominantly related to lack of food availability, limited access to food, or severe but localized problems. Accordingly, the list of countries requiring external assistance is organized into three broad, not mutually exclusive, categories: Countries facing an exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/suppliesas a result of crop failure, natural disasters, interruption of imports, disruption of distribution, excessive post-harvest losses, or other supply bottlenecks. Countries with widespread lack of access, where a majority of the population is considered to be unable to procure food from local markets, due to very low incomes, exceptionally high food prices, or the inability to circulate within the country. Countries with severe localized food insecurity due to the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons, or areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty.

Unfavourable Prospects for Current Crops are countries where prospects point to a shortfall in production of current crops as a result of a reduction of the area planted and/or yields due to adverse weather conditions, plant pests, diseases and other calamities.

1. See, for example, Soaring food prices: facts, perspectives, impacts and actions required, page 17, table 4. 2. Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 1, March 2012 The maps on the GIEWS homepage indicate countries in crisis requiring external assistance for food.

20072008 world food price crisis

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Parts of this article (those related to price projections for 200910) are outdated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (February 2011)

Chart of global trade volume in wheat, coarse grain and soybeans 1990 to 2008, and projected to 2016. United States Department of Agriculture, 2008.

Chart of the United States stock to use ratio of soybeans, maize and wheat, from 1977 to 2007, and projected to 2016. United States Department of Agriculture, September 2007.

World food price index, 19902012. Record high prices occurred during the food price crisis followed by another surge in prices since 2010. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

World food prices increased dramatically in 2007 and the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008[1] creating a global crisis and causing political and economical instability and social unrest in both poor and developed nations. Although the media spotlight focused on the riots that ensued in the face of high prices, the ongoing crisis of food insecurity has been years in the making.[2][3] Systemic causes for the worldwide increases in food prices continue to be the subject of debate. After peaking in the second quarter of 2008 prices fell dramatically during the Late-2000s recession but increased during 2009 and 2010, peaking again in early 2011 at a level sightly higher than the level reached in 2008.[1][4] However a repeat of the crisis of 2008 is not anticipated due to ample stockpiles. [5] Initial causes of the late-2006 price spikes included droughts in grain-producing nations and rising oil prices.[6] Oil price increases also caused general escalations in the costs of fertilizers, food transportation, and industrial agriculture. Root causes may be the increasing use of biofuels in developed countries (see also food vs fuel),[7] and an increasing demand for a more varied diet across the expanding middle-class populations of Asia.[8][9] These factors, coupled with falling world-food stockpiles all contributed to the worldwide rise in food prices. [10]

Wheat yields in developing countries, 1950 to 2004, kg/HA baseline 500. The steep rise in crop yields in the U.S. began in the 1940s. The

percentage of growth was fastest in the early rapid growth stage. In developed counties the yield growth slowdown has been less for maize than for wheat and soybeans. In developing countries maize yields are still rapidly rising. [11]

[edit]Drastic

price increases

Between 2006 and 2008 average world prices for rice rose by 217%, wheat by 136%, corn by 125% and soybeans by 107%.[12] In late April 2008 rice prices hit 24 cents (U.S.) per U.S. pound, more than doubling the price in just seven months.[13]

[edit]World

population growth

Growth in food production was greater than population growth from 1961 2005. The increase in crop yields was extraordinary; however, yield growth slowed dramatically in recent decades.

Although some commentators have argued that this food crisis stems from unprecedented global population growth,[14][15] others point out that world population growth rates have dropped dramatically since the 1980s,[16][17] and grain availability has continued to outpace population. In order to prevent price growth, food production should outpace population growth, which was about 1.2% per year. But there was a temporary drop in food production growth[18][19]: for example, wheat production during 2006 and 2007 was 4% lower than that in 2004 and 2005. World population has grown from 1.6 billion in 1900 to an estimated 6.7 billion in 2008 [3].

[edit]Increased

demand for more resource intensive food

The head of the International Food Policy Research Institute, stated in 2008 that the gradual change in diet among newly prosperous populations is the most important factor underpinning the rise in global food prices. [20] Where food utilization has increased, it has largely been in processed ("value added") foods, sold in developing and developed nations.[21] Total grain utilization growth since 2006 (up three percent, over the 20002006 per annum average of two percent) has been greatest in non-food usage, especially in feed and biofuels.[22][23] One kilogram of beef requires seven kilograms of feed grain.[24] These reports, therefore, conclude that usage in industrial, feed, and input intensive foods, not population growth among poor consumers of simple grains, has contributed to the price increases. Rising

meat consumption due to changes in lifestyle can in turn lead to higher energy consumption due to the higher energy-intensity of meat products, for example, one kilogram of meat uses about 19 times as much energy to produce it as the same amount of apple.[25]

2005/1990 ratios of per capita consumption India Cereals Meat Milk Fish Fruits Vegetables 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 China 0.8 2.4 3.0 2.3 3.5 2.9 Brazil 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.3

[26]

Nigeria 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.3

Although the vast majority of the population in Asia remains rural and poor, the growth of the middle class in the region has been dramatic. For comparison, in 1990, the middle class grew by 9.7 percent in India and 8.6 percent in China, but by 2007 the growth ratewas nearly 30 percent and 70 percent respectively.[10] The corresponding increase in Asian affluence also brought with it a change in lifestyle and eating habits, particularly a demand for greater variety, leading to increased competition with western nations for already strained agricultural resources.[27][28] This demand exacerbates dramatic increases in commodity prices such as oil. Another issue with rising affluence in India and China was reducing the 'shock absorber' of poor people who are forced to reduce their resource consumption when food prices rise. This reduced price elasticity and caused a sharp rise in food prices during some shortages. In the media, China is often mentioned as one of the main reasons for the increase in world food prices. However, China has to a large extent been able to meet its own demand for food, and even exports its surpluses in the world market. [29]

[edit]Effects

of petroleum and fertilizer price increases

Starting in 2007, the prices of fertilizers of all kinds increased dramatically, peaking around the summer of 2008 (see graphs by theInternational Fertilizer Industry Association). Prices approximately tripled for ammonia, urea, diammonium phosphate, muriate of potash (KCl), and sulfuric acid (used for making phosphate fertilizer, and then fell just as dramatically in the latter part of 2008. Some prices doubled within the six months before April, 2008.[30] Part of the cause for these price rises was the rise in the price of oil, since the most fertilizers require petroleum or natural gas to manufacture.[10] Although the main fossil fuel input for fertilizer comes from natural gas to generate hydrogen for the HaberBosch process (see: Ammonia production), natural gas has its own supply problems similar to those for oil. Because natural gas can substitute for petroleum in some uses (for example, natural gas liquids and electricity generation), increasing prices for petroleum lead to increasing prices for natural gas, and thus for fertilizer. Costs for fertilizer raw materials other than oil, such as potash, have themselves been increasing[31] as increased production of staples increases demand. This is causing a boom (with associated volatility) in agriculture stocks.

The major IFPRI Report launched in February 2011 stated that the causes of the 2008 global food crisis were similar to that of the 197274 food crisis, in that the oil price and energy price was the major driver, as well as the shock to cereal demand (from biofuels this time), low interest rates, devaluation of the dollar, declining stocks, and some adverse weather conditions. [32] Unfortunately the IFPRI states that such shocks are likely to recur with several shocks in the future; compounded by a long history of neglecting agricultural investments.

[edit]Declining

world food stockpiles

In the past, nations tended to keep more sizable food stockpiles, but more recently, due to a faster pace of food growth and ease of importation, less emphasis is placed on high stockpiles. For example, in February 2008 wheat stockpiles hit a 60-year low in the United States (see also Rice shortage).[10] Data stocks are often calculated as a residual between Production and Consumption but it becomes difficult to discriminate between a de-stocking policy choices of individual countries and a deficit between production and consumption.

[edit]Financial

speculation

Destabilizing influences, including indiscriminate lending and real estate speculation, led to a crisis in January 2008, and eroded investment in food commodities.[10] Financial speculation in commodity futures following the collapse of the financial derivatives markets has contributed to the crisis due to a "commodities super-cycle." Financial speculators seeking quick returns have removed trillions of dollars from equities and mortgage bonds, some of which has been invested into food and raw materials.[33] That American commodities speculation could have a worldwide effect on food prices is reflected in the globalization of food production. Foreign investment drives productivity improvements, and other gains for farmers.[34][35][36]

[edit]Commodity index funds

Main article: Commodity index fund Goldman Sachs' entry into the commodities market via the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has been implicated by some in the 20072008 world food price crisis. In a 2010 article in Harper's magazine, Frederick Kaufman magazine accused Goldman Sachs of profiting while many people went hungry or even starved. He argued that Goldman's large purchases of long-options on wheat futures created a demand shock in the wheat market, which disturbed the normal relationship between Supply and Demand and price levels. He argues that the result was a 'contango' wheat market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which caused prices of wheat to rise much higher than normal, defeating the purpose of the exchanges (price stabilization) in the first place. [37][38][39] however, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development using data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed tracking funds (of which Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was one) did not cause the bubble. For example the report points out that even commodities without futures markets also saw price rises during the period.[40] Some commodities without futures markets saw their prices rise as a consequence of the rising prices of commodities with futures markets: the World Development Movement states there is strong evidence that the rising price of wheat caused the price of rice to subsequently rise as well.[41]

[edit]Effects

of trade liberalization

Some theorists, such as Martin Khor of the Third World Network,[42] point out that many developing nations have gone from being food independent to being net food importing economies since the 1970s and 1980s International Monetary Fund (and later the World

Trade Organisation's Agreement on Agriculture) free market economics directives to debtor nations. In opening developing countries to developed world food imports subsidised by Western governments, developing nations can become more dependent upon food imports if local agriculture does not improve.[42][43] While developed countries pressured the developing world to abolish subsidies in the interest of trade liberalization, rich countries largely kept subsidies in place for their own farmers. In recent years United States government subsidies have been added to push production toward biofuel rather than food and vegetables .[10]

[edit]Effects

of food for fuel

Main article: Food vs fuel One systemic cause for the price rise is held to be the diversion of food crops (maize in particular) for making first-generation biofuels.[44] An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. [45] (Total worldwide grain production for 2007 was just over 2000 million tons.[46]) As farmers devoted larger parts of their crops to fuel production than in previous years, land and resources available for food production were reduced correspondingly. This has resulted in less food available for human consumption, especially in developing and least developed countries, where a family's daily allowances for food purchases are extremely limited. The crisis can be seen, in a sense, to dichotomize rich and poor nations, since, for example, filling a tank of an average car with biofuel, amounts to as much maize (Africa's principal food staple) as an African person consumes in an entire year.[10] Brazil, the world's second largest producer of ethanol after the U.S., is considered to have the world's first sustainable biofuels economy[47][48][49] and its government claims Brazil's sugar cane based ethanol industry has not contributed to the 2008 food crises.[49][50] A World Bank policy research working paper released in July 2008[51] concluded that "...large increases in biofuels production in the United States and Europe are the main reason behind the steep rise in global food prices", and also stated that "Brazil's sugar-based ethanol did not push food prices appreciably higher".[52][53] An economic assessment published in July 2008 by the OECD[54] disagrees with the World Bank report regarding the negative effects of subsidies and trade restrictions, finding that the effect of biofuels on food prices are much smaller.[55] A report released by Oxfam in June 2008[56] criticized biofuel policies of rich countries and concluded that, of all biofuels available in the market, Brazilian sugarcane ethanol is "far from perfect" but it is the most favorable biofuel in the world in term of cost and GHG balance. The report discusses some existing problems and potential risks and asks the Brazilian government for caution to avoid jeopardizing its environmental and social sustainability. The report also says that: "Rich countries spent up to $15 billion last year supporting biofuels while blocking cheaper Brazilian ethanol, which is far less damaging for global food security."[57][58] (See Ethanol fuel in Brazil) German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the rise in food prices is due to poor agricultural policies and changing eating habits in developing nations, not biofuels as some critics claim.[59] On 29 April 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush declared during a press conference that "85 percent of the world's food prices are caused by weather, increased demand and energy prices", and recognized that "15 percent has been caused by ethanol".[60] On 4 July 2008, The Guardian reported that a leaked World Bank report estimated the rise in food prices caused by biofuels to be 75%.[61] This report was officially released in July 2008.[51] Since reaching record high prices in June 2008, corn prices fell 50% by October 2008, declining sharply together with

other commodities, including oil. As ethanol production from corn has continued at the same levels, some have argued this trend shows the belief that the increased demand for corn to produce ethanol was mistaken. "Analysts, including some in the ethanol sector, say ethanol demand adds about 75 cents to $1.00 per bushel to the price of corn, as a rule of thumb. Other analysts say it adds around 20 percent, or just under 80 cents per bushel at current prices. Those estimates hint that $4 per bushel corn might be priced at only $3 without demand for ethanol fuel."[62] These industry sources consider that a speculative bubble in the commodity markets holding positions in corn futures was the main driver behind the observed hike in corn prices affecting food supply. Second- and third-generation biofuels (such as cellulosic ethanol and algae fuel, respectively) may someday ease the competition with food crops, as can grow on marginal lands unsuited for food crops, but these advanced biofuels require further development of farming practices and refining technology; in contrast, ethanol from maize uses mature technology and the maize crop can be shifted between food and fuel use quickly.

[edit]Biofuel

subsidies in the US and the EU

The World Bank lists the effect of biofuels as an important contributor to higher food prices.[63] The FAO/ECMB has reported that world land usage for agriculture has declined since the 1980s, and subsidies outside the United States and EU have dropped since the year 2004, leaving supply, while sufficient to meet 2004 needs, vulnerable when the United States began converting agricultural commodities to biofuels.[64] According to the United States Department of Agriculture, global wheat imports and stocks have decreased, domestic consumption has stagnated, and world wheat production has decreased from 2006 to 2008.[65] In the United States, government subsidies for ethanol production have prompted many farmers to switch to production for biofuel. Maize is the primary crop used for the production of ethanol, with the United States being the biggest producer of maize ethanol. As a result, 23 percent of United States maize crops were being used for ethanol in 20062007 (up from 6 percent in 20052006), and the USDA expects the United States to use 81 million tons of maize for ethanol production in the 2007 2008 season, up 37 percent.[66] This not only diverts grains from food, but it diverts agricultural land from food production. Nevertheless, supporters of ethanol claim that using corn for ethanol is not responsible for the worst food riots in the world, many of which have been caused by the price of rice and oil, which are not affected by biofuel use but rather by supply and demand. However, a World Bank policy research working paper released in July 2008[51] says that biofuels have raised food prices between 70 to 75 percent. The study found that higher oil prices and a weak dollar explain 2530% of total price rise. The "month-by-month" five year analysis disputes that increases in global grain consumption and droughts were responsible for price increases, reporting that this had had only a marginal effect and instead argues that the EU and US drive for biofuels has had by far the biggest effect on food supply and prices. The paper concludes that increased production of biofuels in the US and EU were supported by subsidies and tariffs on imports, and considers that without these policies, price increases would have been smaller. This research also concluded that Brazil's sugar cane based ethanol has not raised sugar prices significantly, and suggest to remove tariffs on ethanol imports by both the US and EU, to allow more efficient producers such as Brazil and other developing countries to produce ethanol profitably for export to meet the mandates in the EU and the US.[52][53] The Renewable Fuel Association (RFA) published a rebuttal based on the version leaked before the formal release of the World Bank's paper.[67] The RFA critique considers that the analysis is highly subjective and that the author "estimates the effect of global food prices from the weak dollar and the direct and indirect effect of high petroleum prices and attributes everything else to biofuels."[68]

An economic assessment report also published in July 2008 by the OECD[54] agrees with the World Bank report regarding the negative effects of subsidies and trade restrictions, but found that the effect of biofuels on food prices are much smaller. The OECD study is also critical of the limited reduction of GHG emissions achieved from biofuels produced in Europe and North America, concluding that the current biofuel support policies would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport fuel by no more than 0.8 percent by 2015, while Brazilian ethanol from sugar cane reduces greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 percent compared to fossil fuels. The assessment calls on governments for more open markets in biofuels and feedstocks to improve efficiency and lower costs.[55]

[edit]Idled

farmland

According to the New York Times on 9 April 2008, the United States government pays farmers to idle their cropland under a conservation program. This policy reached a peak of 36,800,000 acres (149,000 km2) idled in 2007, that is 8% of cropland in United States, representing a total area bigger than the state of New York.[69]

[edit]Agricultural

subsidies

The global food crisis has renewed calls for removal of distorting agricultural subsidies in developed countries.[70] Support to farmers in OECD countries totals 280 billion USD annually, which compares to official development assistance of just 80 billion USD in 2004, and farm support depresses global food prices, according to OECD estimates. [71] Theseagricultural subsidies lead to underdevelopment in rural developing countries, including the least developed countries; meanwhile subsidised food increases overconsumption in developed countries. The US Farm Bill brought in by the Bush Administration in 2002 increased agricultural subsidies by 80% and cost the US taxpayer 190 billion USD.[72] In 2003, the EU agreed to extend the Common Agricultural Policy until 2013. Former UNDP Administrator Malloch Brown renewed calls for reform of the farm subsidies such as the CAP. [73]

[edit]Distorted

global rice market

Japan is forced to import more than 767,000 tons of rice annually from the United States, Thailand, and other countries due to WTO rules.[74] This is despite the fact that Japan produces over 100% of domestic rice consumption needs with 11 million tons produced in 2005 while 8.7 million tons were consumed in 20032004 period.[citation needed] Japan is not allowed to re-export this rice to other countries without approval. This rice is generally left to rot and then used for animal feed. Under pressure, the United States and Japan are poised to strike a deal to remove such restrictions. It is expected 1.5 million tons of high-grade American rice will enter the market soon.[75]

[edit]Crop

shortfalls from natural disasters

Several distinct weather- and climate-related incidents have caused disruptions in crop production. Perhaps the most influential is the extended drought in Australia, in particular the fertile Murray-Darling Basin, which produces large amounts of wheat and rice. The drought has caused the annual rice harvest to fall by as much as 98% from pre-drought levels.[76] Australia is historically the second-largest exporter of wheat after the United States, producing up to 25 million tons in a good year, the vast majority for export. However, the 2006 harvest was 9.8 million.[77] Other events that have negatively affected the price of food include the 2006 heat wave in California's San Joaquin Valley, which killed large numbers of farm animals, and unseasonable 2008 rains in Kerala, India, which destroyed swathes of grain. Scientists have stated that several of these incidents are consistent with the predicted effects of climate change.[78][79]

The effects of Cyclone Nargis on Burma in May 2008 caused a spike in the price of rice. Burma has historically been a rice exporter, though yields have fallen as government price controls have reduced incentives for farmers. The storm surge inundated rice paddies up to 30 miles (48 km) inland in the Irrawaddy Delta, raising concern that the salt could make the fields infertile. The FAO had previously estimated that Burma would export up to 600,000 tons of rice in 2008, but concerns were raised in the cyclone's aftermath that Burma may be forced to import rice for the first time, putting further upward pressure on global rice prices.[13][80] Stem rust reappeared in 1998[81] in Uganda (and possibly earlier in Kenya)[82] with the particularly virulent UG99 fungus. Unlike other rusts, which only partially affect crop yields, UG99 can bring 100% crop loss. Up to 80% yield losses were recently recorded in Kenya.[83] As of 2005 stem rust was still believed to be "largely under control worldwide except in Eastern Africa". [82] But by January 2007 an even more virulent strain had gone across the Red Sea into Yemen. FAO first reported on 5 March 2008 that Ug99 had now spread to major wheat-growing areas in Iran.[84] These countries in North Africa and Middle East consume over 150% of their own wheat production; [81] the failure of this staple crop thus adds a major burden on them. The disease is now expected to spread over China and the Far-East. The strong international collaboration network of research and development that spread disease-resistant strains some 40 years ago and started the Green Revolution, known as CGIAR, was since slowly starved of research funds because of its own success and is now too atrophied to swiftly react to the new threat.[81]

[edit]Soil

and productivity losses

Sundquist[85] points out that large areas of croplands are lost year after year, due mainly to soil erosion, water depletion and urbanisation. According to him "60,000 km2/ year of land becomes so severely degraded that it loses its productive capacity and becomes wasteland", and even more are affected to a lesser extent, adding to the crop supply problem. Additionally, agricultural production is also lost due to water depletion. Northern China in particular has depleted much of its nonrenewables aquifers, which now impacts negatively its crop production.[86] Urbanisation is another, smaller, difficult to estimate cause of annual cropland reduction.[87]

[edit]Rising

levels of ozone

One possible environmental factor in the food price crisis is rising background levels of ground-level tropospheric ozone in the atmosphere. Plants have been shown to have a high sensitivity to ozone levels, and lower yields of important food crops, such as wheat and soybeans, may have been a result of elevated ozone levels. Ozone levels in the Yangtze Delta were studied for their effect on oilseed rape, a member of the cabbage family that produces one-third of the vegetable oil used in China. Plants grown in chambers that controlled ozone levels exhibited a 1020 percent reduction in size and weight (biomass) when exposed to elevated ozone levels. Production of seeds and oil was also reduced.[88]The Chinese authors of this study also reported that rice grown in chambers that controlled ozone levels exhibited a 14 to 20 percent reduction in biomass yield when exposed to ozone levels over 25 times higher than was normal for the region.[89]

[edit]Rising

prices

From the beginning of 2007 to early 2008, the prices of some of the most basic international food commodities increased dramatically on international markets. The international market price of wheat doubled from February 2007 to February 2008 hitting a record high

of over US$10 a bushel.[90] Rice prices also reached ten year highs. In some nations, milk and meat prices more than doubled, while soy (which hit a 34 year high price in December 2007[91]) and maize prices have increased dramatically. Total food import bills rose by an estimated 25% for developing countries in 2007. Researchers from the Overseas Development Institute have suggested this problem will be worsened by a likely fall in food aid. As food aid is programmed by budget rather than volume, rising food prices mean that the World Food Programme (WFP) needs an extra $500 million just to sustain the current operations.[92] To ensure that food remains available for their domestic populations and to combat dramatic price inflation, major rice exporters, such as China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Vietnam,Cambodia and Egypt, imposed strict export bans on rice.[93] Conversely, several other nations, including Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia either imposed high tariffs or blocked the export of wheat and other foodstuffs altogether, driving up prices still further for net food importing nations while trying to isolate their internal markets. North Koreasuffered from the food crisis to such extent that a North Korean official was quoted in June '08 with saying "Life is more than difficult. It seems that everyone is going to die".[94] This nation however is solely relying on food assistance to cope with the crisis. [95]

[edit]In

developed countries
This section requires expansion. (May
2008)

[edit]United States
A May 2008 national survey found that food banks and pantries across the U.S. were being forced to cut back on food distribution as 99 percent of respondents reported an increase in the number of people requesting services. Rising food and fuel prices, inadequate food stamp benefits, unemployment, underemployment, and rent or mortgage costs were factors reported as forcing an average of 1520 percent more people.[96] Compounding this issue, USDA bonus foods have declined by $200 million and local food donations were down nationally about 9 percent over the same period. According to the California Association of Food Banks, which is an umbrella organization of nearly all food banks in the state, food banks are at the "beginning of a crisis." [97]

[edit]Effects

on farmers

If global price movements are transmitted to local markets, farmers in the developing world could benefit from the rising price of food. According to researchers from the Overseas Development Institute, this may depend on farmers capacity to respond to changing market conditions. Experience suggests that farmers lack the credit and inputs needed to respond in the short term. In the medium or long term, however, they could benefit, as seen in the Asian Green Revolution or in many African countries in the recent past.[92]

[edit]Relationship

with 2008 Chinese milk scandal

As grain prices increased, China's large number small-holding milk farmers, as well as producers of feed for cattle, were unable to exist economically. As a result, they turned to putting additives into the feed and milk, including melamine, in order to boost the measured level of protein. Hundreds of thousands of children became ill, China's milk exports virtually ended, executives and officials were arrested and some executed, and companies went bankrupt.[98]

[edit]Unrest

and government actions in individual countries and regions

The price rises affected parts of Asia and Africa particularly severely with Burkina Faso,[99] Cameroon, Senegal, Mauritania, Cte

d'Ivoire,[100] Egypt[101] and Morocco seeing protests and riots in late 2007 and early 2008 over the unavailability of basic food staples. Other countries that have seen food riots or are facing related unrest are: Mexico, Bolivia,Yemen, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh,[102] Pakistan,[103] Sri Lanka,[104] and South Africa.[105]

[edit]Bangladesh
10,000 workers rioted close to the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka, smashing cars and buses and vandalising factories in anger at high food prices and low wages. Dozens of people, including at least 20 police officials, were injured in the violence. Ironically, the country achieved food self-sufficiency in 2002, but food prices increased drastically due to the reliance of agriculture on oil and fossil fuels.[106] Economists estimate 30 million of the country's 150 million people could go hungry. [107]

[edit]Brazil
In April 2008, the Brazilian government announced a temporary ban on the export of rice. The ban is intended to protect domestic consumers.[108][109]

[edit]Burkina

Faso

One of the earlier food riots took place in Burkina Faso, on 22 February, when rioting broke out in the country's second and third largest cities over soaring food prices (up to a 65 percent increase), sparing the capital, Ouagadougou, where soldiers were mobilized throughout strategic points. The government promised to lower taxes on food and to release food stocks. Over 100 people were arrested in one of the towns.[110] Related policy actions of the Burkinabe government included:

The removal of customs duty on rice, salt, dairy-based products and baby foods The removal of value added tax on durum wheat, baby foods, soap and edible oils Establishing negotiated prices with wholesalers for sugar, oil and rice Releasing food stocks Strengthening of community grain banks Food distribution in-kind Reduction of electricity cost, partial payment of utility bills for the poor Enacting special programs for schools and hospitals Fertilizer distribution and production support.

A ban was also imposed on exportation of cereals.[111]

[edit]Cameroon
Main article: 2008 Cameroonian anti-government protests Cameroon, the world's fourth largest cocoa producer, saw large scale rioting in late February 2008, in protest against inflating food and fuel prices, as well as the attempt by President Paul Biya to extend his 25-year rule. At least seven people were killed in the worst unrest seen in the country in over fifteen years.[112] This figure was later increased to 24.[94] Part of the government response to the protests was a reduction in import taxes on foods including rice, flour, and fish. The government reached an agreement with retailers by which prices would be lowered in exchange for the reduced import taxes. As of late April 2008, however, reports

suggested that prices had not eased and in some cases had even increased.[113] On 24 April 2008, the government of Cameroon announced a two-year emergency program designed to double Cameroon's food production and achieve food self-sufficiency.[114]

[edit]Cte

d'Ivoire

On 31 March, Cte d'Ivoire's capital Abidjan saw police use tear gas and a dozen protesters injured following food riots that gripped the city. The riots followed dramatic hikes in the price of food and fuel, with the price of beef rising from US$1.68 to $2.16 per kilogram, and the price of gasoline rising from $1.44 to $2.04 per liter, in only three days. [115]

[edit]Egypt
In Egypt, a boy was killed from a gunshot to the head after Egyptian police intervened in violent demonstrations over rising food prices that gripped the industrial city of Mahalla on 8 April. Large swathes of the population have been hit as food prices, and particularly the price of bread, have doubled over the last several months as a result of producers exploiting a shortage that has existed since 2006[116] .[117]

[edit]Ethiopia
This section requires expansion. (June
2008)

Drought and the food price crisis threatened thousands in Ethiopia.[118]

[edit]Haiti
On 12 April 2008, the Haitian Senate voted to dismiss Prime Minister Jacques-douard Alexis after violent food riots hit the country.[119] The food riots caused the death of 5 people.[94] Prices for food items such as rice, beans, fruit and condensed milk have gone up 50 percent in Haiti since late 2007 while the price of fuel has tripled in only two months.[120] Riots broke out in April due to the high prices, and the government had been attempting to restore order by subsidizing a 15 percent reduction in the price of rice. [121]As of February 2010, post-earthquake Port-au-Prince is almost entirely reliant on foreign food aid, some of which ends up in the black markets.[122]

[edit]India
India has banned the export of rice except for Basmati types of rice, which attract a premium price. [123]

Now the ban is no more. India exporting non Basmati rice also since last six months. [edit]Indonesia
Street protests over the price of food took place in Indonesia[124] where food staples and gasoline have nearly doubled in price since January 2008.[125]

[edit]Latin

America

In April 2008, the Latin American members of the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) met in Braslia to confront the issues of high food prices, scarcities and violence that affect the region. [126]

[edit]Mexico
The President of Mexico, Felipe Caldern, with industry representatives and members of the Confederation of Industrial Chambers (Concamin), agreed to freeze prices of more than 150 consumer staples, such as coffee, sardines, tuna, oil, soup or tea, among others, until the end of December 2008. The measure was carried out in an attempt to control inflation, which stood at an annual rate of 4.95%, the highest increase since December 2004. Mexican baking company Grupo Bimbo, agreed to maintain stable prices of their products, despite of the 20% raise of the production costs.[127] Daniel Servitje, CEO of this company, announced in the 19th Plenary Meeting of the Mexico China Business Committee. Bimbo is one of the most important baking companies worldwide, with the recent expansion to China. Bimbo also recently has acquired five bakeries in the United States and Canada.[128] Servitje also said that their investment plans of this year will be done, but the long term projects, can be changed.

[edit]Mozambique
In mid February, rioting that started in the Mozambican rural town of Chokwe and then spread to the capital, Maputo, has resulted in at least four deaths. The riots were reported in the media to have been, at least in part, over food prices and were termed "food riots." A biofuel advocacy publication, however, claimed that these were, in fact, "fuel riots", limited to the rise in the cost of diesel, and argued that the "food riot" characterization worked to fan "anti-biofuels sentiment."[129]

[edit]Pakistan
The Pakistan Army has been deployed to avoid the seizure of food from fields and warehouses. This hasn't stopped the food prices from increasing. The new government has been blamed for not managing the countries food stockpiles properly. [130]

[edit]Myanmar
Once the world's top rice producer, Myanmar has produced enough rice to feed itself until now. Rice exports dropped over four decades from nearly 4 million tons to only about 40,000 tons last year, mostly due to neglect by Myanmar's ruling generals of infrastructure, including irrigation and warehousing. On 3 May 2008 Cyclone Nargis stripped Myanmar's rice-growing districts, ruining large areas with salt water. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that these areas produce 65 percent of the Southeast Asian country's rice. Worries of long-term food shortages and rationing are rife. The military regime says nothing about the rice crisis, but continues to export rice at the same rate. "...at least the next two harvests are going to be greatly affected and therell be virtually no output from those areas during that time. So were likely to see considerable food and rice shortages for the next couple of years. The damage to the economy is going to be profound." said economist and Myanmar expert Sean Turnell, of Australia's Macquarie University. (interviewed in "The Irriwaddy", Tuesday, 27 May 2008)

[edit]Panama
In Panama, in response to higher rice prices the government began buying rice at the high market price and selling rice to the public at a lower subsidized price at food kiosks.

[edit]Philippines
In the Philippines, the Arroyo government insisted on 13 April that there would be no food riots in the country and that there could be no comparison with Haiti's situation.[131] Chief Presidential Legal Counsel, Sergio Apostol stated that: "Haiti is not trying to solve the problem, while we are doing something to address the issue. We don't have a food shortage. So, no comparison..." [132] Comments by

the Justice Secretary, Raul Gonzalez, the following day, that food riots are not far fetched, were quickly rebuked by the rest of the government.[133] On 15 April, the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, urged China, Japan, and other key Asian nations, to convene an emergency meeting, especially taking issue with those countries' rice export bans. "Free trade should be flowing", Philippine Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap stated.[134] In late April 2008, the Philippines government requested that the World Bank exert pressure on rice exporting countries to end export restrictions.[135]

[edit]Russia
The Russian government pressured retailers to freeze food prices before key elections for fear of a public backlash against the rising cost of food in October 2007.[136] The freeze ended on 1 May 2008.[137]

[edit]Senegal
On 31 March 2008, Senegal had riots in response to the rise in the price of food and fuel. Twenty-four people were arrested and detained in a response that one local human rights group claimed included "torture" and other "unspeakable acts" on the part of the security forces.[138] Further protests took place in Dakar on 26 April 2008.[139]

[edit]Somalia
Riots in Somalia occurred on 5 May 2008 over the price of food, in which five protesters were killed.[140] The protests occurred amid a serious humanitarian emergency due to theEthiopian war in Somalia.

[edit]Tajikistan
The Christian Science Monitor, neweurasia, and other media observers are predicting that a nascent hunger crisis will erupt into a full famine as a consequence of the energy shortages.[141] UN experts announced on 10 October that almost one-third of Tajikistan's 6.7 million inhabitants may not have enough to eat for the winter of 200809.[142]

[edit]Yemen
Food riots in southern Yemen that began in late March and continued through early April, saw police stations torched, and roadblocks were set up by armed protesters. The army has deployed tanks and other military vehicles. Although the riots involved thousands of demonstrators over several days and over 100 arrests, officials claimed no fatalities; residents, however, claimed that at least one of the fourteen wounded people has died.[143]

[edit]Projections
The UN (FAO) released a study in December 2007 projecting a 49 percent increase in African cereal prices, and 53 percent in European prices, through July 2008.[144] In April 2008, the World Bank, in combination with the International Monetary Fund, announced a series of measures aimed at mitigating the crisis, including increased loans to African farmers and emergency monetary aid to badly affected areas such as Haiti.[145] According to FAO director Jacques Diouf, however, the World Food Programme needs an immediate cash injection of at least $1700 million,[10] far more than the tens of million-worth in measures already pledged. On 28 April 2008, the United Nations Secretary-GeneralBan Ki-moon established a Task Force on the Global Food Security Crisis [4] under his chairmanship and composed of the heads of the United Nations specialized agencies, funds and programmes, Bretton Woods institutions and relevant parts of the UN Secretariat to co-ordinate efforts to alleviate the crisis.[146]

[edit]Actions

by governments

IFAD is making up to US$200 million available to support poor farmers boost food production in face of the global food crisis. [147] On 2 May 2008 U.S. President George W. Bush said he was asking Congress to approve an extra $770 million funding for international food aid.[148] On 16 October 2008, former US president Bill Clinton scolded the bipartisan coalition in Congress that killed the idea of making some aid donations in cash rather than in food.[149] The release of Japan's rice reserves onto the market may bring the rice price down significantly. As of 16 May, anticipation of the move had already lowered prices by 14% in a single week.[150] On 30 April 2008 Thailand announced the creation of the Organization of Rice Exporting Countries (OREC) with the potential to develop a price-fixing cartel for rice.[151][152] This is seen by some as an action to capitalise on the crisis[citation needed]. In June 2008 the Food and Agriculture Organization hosted a High-Level Conference on World Food Security, in which $1.2 billion in food aid was committed for the 75 million people in 60 countries hardest hit by rising food prices.[153] In June 2008, a sustained commitment from the G8 was called for by some humanitarian organizations.[154] On 23 October 2008, Associated Press reported the following: "Former President Clinton told a U.N. gathering Thursday [16 Oct 2008] that the global food crisis shows "we all blew it, including me", by treating food crops "like color TVs" instead of as a vital commodity for the world's poor.... Clinton criticized decades of policymaking by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and others, encouraged by the U.S., that pressured Africans in particular into dropping government subsidies for fertilizer, improved seed and other farm inputs as a requirement to get aid. Africa's food self-sufficiency declined and food imports rose. Now skyrocketing prices in the international grain trade on average more than doubling between 2006 and early 2008 have pushed many in poor countries deeper into poverty."[149]
We need the World Bank, the IMF, all the big foundations, and all the governments to admit that, for 30 years, we all blew it, including me when I was President. We were wrong to believe that food was like some other product in international trade, and we all have to go back to a more responsible and sustainable form of agriculture. Former US President Bill Clinton, Speech at United Nations World Food Day, October 16, 2008
[155]

[edit]Food

price decreases

In December 2008, the global economic slowdown, decreasing oil prices, and speculation of decreased demand for commodities worldwide brought about sharp decreases in the price of staple crops from their earlier highs. Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped from US $7.99 per bushel in June to US $3.74 per bushel in mid-December; wheat and rice prices experienced similar decreases.[156] The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, however, warned against "a false sense of security", noting that the credit crisiscould cause farmers to reduce plantings.[157] FAO convened a World Summit on Food Security at its headquarters in Rome in November 2008, noting that food prices remained high in developing countries and that the global food security situation has worsened. By early 2011 food prices had risen again to surpass the record highs of 2008. Some commentators saw this as the resumption of the price spike seen in 200708.[158] Prices had dropped after good weather helped increase grain yields while demand had dropped due

to the recession.[159]

Its not only the excessive sovereign debt load and the debt load of consumers in the United States and Europe that threaten our global future but early in 2011 it is evident that spreading and rising food prices constitute a growing threat. A timely article that addresses this very real challenge is posted at the Foreign Policy website. From the Foreign Policy website: ============================================================================== It is no longer conflict between heavily armed superpowers, but rather spreading food shortages and rising food prices and the political turmoil this would lead to that threatens our global future. Unless governments quickly redefine security and shift expenditures from military uses to investing in climate change mitigation, water efficiency, soil conservation, and population stabilization, the world will in all likelihood be facing a future with both more climate instability and food price volatility. If business as usual continues, food prices will only trend upward. But whereas in years past, its been weather that has caused a spike in commodities prices, now its trends on both sides of the food supply/demand equation that are driving up prices. On the demand side, the culprits are population growth, rising affluence, and the use of grain to fuel cars. On the supply side: soil erosion, aquifer depletion, the loss of cropland to nonfarm uses, the diversion of irrigation water to cities, the plateauing of crop yields in agriculturally advanced countries, and due to climate change crop-withering heat waves and melting mountain glaciers and ice sheets. These climate-related trends seem destined to take a far greater toll in the future. =================================================================================== The major item on the supply side that is beginning to affect crop yields is climate change. The freaky weather we have recently experienced around the world is but one additional piece of evidence that climate change is underway. For example, the ten-year drought that has plagued Queensland, Australia has been broken by monumental floods. Australias third largest city, Brisbane, is about two thirds underwater with flood waters still rising. The Brisbane area of Australia produces about 8% of the worlds wheat supply as well as about 40% of the worlds metallurgical coking coal. Clearly, the reduction in the wheat crop as well as a reduction in metallurgical coking coal due to widespread flooding in and around coal mines is contributing to rising prices for these commodities. This past summer, large areas of Russia around Moscow experienced temperatures approximately 20 degrees above normal. The result was catastrophic forest fires which blanketed Moscow in smoke and smog and drastically reduced Russias wheat crop, to the extent that Russia ceased exporting wheat. As one more example of freaky weather the southeastern United States has been blanketed for the past several days with an ice and snow storm, with temperatures dropping into the single digits. In Atlanta, Ga., near where I live, streets and roads, even the Interstate highways, were covered in sheets of ice which made driving without having an unpleasant incident all but impossible. During the same period, Boston, New York City, New Jersey, and the New England states, experienced blizzards that were far worse than normal winter

snowstorms. Winter weather patterns indeed seem to be changing, and not for the better. Some people may mistakenly say that exceptional amounts of snow and ice covering large portions of the United States could hardly be caused by global warming. What they fail to realize is that approximately 70% of the Earths surface is covered by water and that indeed water temperatures have steadily been rising, especially over the past 10 years. Increased water temperatures around the world are easily measured and recorded by scientists. The years 2005 and 2010 were the warmest on record. The increased water temperatures have affected the flow of air currents around the earth, especially the jet stream. The jet streams path has been altered so that extremely cold Siberian air is being funneled into areas further south than usual, while simultaneously air containing heavy amounts of moisture are being funneled into areas further north. The result is that while the overall temperature of the earth is steadily rising a greater amount of winter participation in the form of freezing rain, snow, and ice is occurring. Given the level of political corruption and malaise around the world, and the lack of enlightened and forceful leadership, the future is not encouraging. Governments are still engaged in petty arguments about the causes of climate change rather than dealing with climate change mitigation. Unfortunately, until there are widespread food shortages and riots caused by starving populations faced with drastic food price increases, governments around the world will likely largely ignore the impending crisis. Only when it is too late to prevent real hardship will the reasons behind those shortages be acknowledged and too little, too late, actions be implemented. Led by the United States, governments spend tremendous sums of money on military expenditures and national security at a time when challenges such as climate change and food shortages escalate and efforts to address them are underfunded. There is little reason to believe that anything except a severe catastrophe will lead to modified behavior. The problem for all of us is that the catastrophe of food shortages and sharply rising prices seems to be already underway. Most of us are not in any way prepared for what the near future will bring.

Famine
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Food shortage)

This article is about scarcity of food. For other uses, see Famine (disambiguation). A famine is a widespread scarcity of food,[1] caused by several factors including crop failure, population unbalance, or government policies. This phenomenon is usually accompanied or followed by

regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality. Nearly every continent in the world has experienced a period of famine throughout history. Many countries continue to have extreme cases of famine. Emergency measures in relieving famine primarily include providing deficient micronutrients, such as vitamins and minerals, through fortified sachet powders or directly throughsupplements.[2][3] The famine relief model increasingly used by aid groups calls for giving cash or cash vouchers to the hungry to pay local farmers instead of buying food from donor countries, often required by law, as it wastes money on transport costs,[4][5] but more importantly, it perpetuates the cycle of dependency on foreign imports rather than helping to create real local stability through agricultural abundance. Such independence however does rest upon local conditions of soil, water, temperature and so on. Long-term measures include investment in modern agriculture techniques, such as fertilizers and irrigation, which largely eradicated hunger in the developed world.[6] World Bankstrictures restrict government subsidies for farmers, and increasing use of fertilizers is opposed by some environmental groups because of its unintended consequences: adverse effects on water supplies and habitat. [7][8]

[edit]Characteristics
Famine strikes Sub-Saharan African countries the hardest, but with exhaustion of food resources, overdrafting of groundwater, wars, internal struggles, and economic failure, famine continues to be a worldwide problem with hundreds of millions of people suffering.[9] These famines cause widespread malnutrition and impoverishment; The famine in Ethiopia in the 1980s had an immense death toll, although Asian famines of the 20th century have also produced extensive death tolls. Modern African famines are characterized by widespread destitution and malnutrition, with heightened mortality confined to young children. Relief technologies including immunization, improved public health infrastructure, general food rations and supplementary feeding for vulnerable children, has provided temporary mitigation to the mortality impacts of famines, while leaving their economic consequences unchanged, and not solving the underlying issue of too large a regional population relative to food production capability. Humanitarian crises may also arise from genocide campaigns, civil wars, refugee flows and episodes of extreme violence and state collapse, creating famine conditions among the affected populations. Despite repeated stated intentions by the world's leaders to end hunger and famine, famine remains a chronic threat in much of Africa and Asia. In July 2005, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network labelled Niger with emergency status, as well as Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan,Somalia and Zimbabwe. In January 2006, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that 11 million people in Somalia,Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia were in danger of starvation due to the combination of severe drought and military conflicts.[10] In 2006, the most serious humanitarian crisis in Africa was in Sudan's region Darfur.

Some believed that the Green Revolution was an answer to famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The Green Revolution began in the 20th century with hybrid strains of high-yielding crops. Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%.[11] Some criticize the process, stating that these new high-yielding crops require more chemical fertilizers andpesticides, which can harm the environment. However, it was an option for developing nations suffering from famine. These high-yielding crops make it technically possible to feed more people. However, there are indications that regional food production has peaked in many world sectors, due to certain strategies associated with intensive agriculture such as groundwater overdrafting and overuse of pesticides and other agricultural chemicals. Frances Moore Lapp, later co-founder of the Institute for Food and Development Policy (Food First) argued in Diet for a Small Planet (1971) that vegetarian diets can provide food for larger populations, with the same resources, compared to omnivorous diets. Noting that modern famines are sometimes aggravated by misguided economic policies, political design to impoverish or marginalize certain populations, or acts of war, political economists have investigated the political conditions under which famine is prevented. Amartya Sen[note 1] states that the liberal institutions that exist in India, including competitive elections and a free press, have played a major role in preventing famine in that country since independence. Alex de Waal has developed this theory to focus on the "political contract" between rulers and people that ensures famine prevention, noting the rarity of such political contracts in Africa, and the danger that international relief agencies will undermine such contracts through removing the locus of accountability for famines from national governments.

[edit]Effects
The demographic impacts of famine are sharp. Mortality is concentrated among children and the elderly. A consistent demographic fact is that in all recorded famines, male mortality exceeds female, even in those populations (such as northern India and Pakistan) where there is a male longevity advantage during normal times. Reasons for this may include greater female resilience under the pressure of malnutrition, and possibly female's naturally higher percentage of body fat. Famine is also accompanied by lower fertility. Famines therefore leave the reproductive core of a populationadult womenlesser affected compared to other population categories, and post-famine periods are often characterized a "rebound" with increased births. Even though the theories of Thomas Malthus would predict that famines reduce the size of the population commensurate with available food resources, in fact even the most severe famines have rarely dented population growth for more than a few years. The mortality in China in 195861, Bengal in 1943, and Ethiopia in 198385 was all made up by a growing population over just a few years. Of greater longterm demographic impact is emigration: Ireland was chiefly depopulated after the 1840s famines by waves of emigration.

[edit]Levels

of food insecurity

Main article: Famine scales

In modern times, local and political governments and non-governmental organizations that deliver famine relief have limited resources with which to address the multiple situations of food insecurity that are occurring simultaneously. Various methods of categorizing the gradations of food security have thus been used in order to most efficiently allocate food relief. One of the earliest were the Indian Famine Codes devised by the British in the 1880s. The Codes listed three stages of food insecurity: near-scarcity, scarcity and famine, and were highly influential in the creation of subsequent famine warning or measurement systems. The early warning system developed to monitor the region inhabited by the Turkana people in northern Kenya also has three levels, but links each stage to a pre-planned response to mitigate the crisis and prevent its deterioration. The experiences of famine relief organizations throughout the world over the 1980s and 1990s resulted in at least two major developments: the "livelihoods approach" and the increased use of nutrition indicators to determine the severity of a crisis. Individuals and groups in food stressful situations will attempt to cope by rationing consumption, finding alternative means to supplement income, etc. before taking desperate measures, such as selling off plots of agricultural land. When all means of self-support are exhausted, the affected population begins to migrate in search of food or fall victim to outright mass starvation. Famine may thus be viewed partially as a social phenomenon, involving markets, the price of food, and social support structures. A second lesson drawn was the increased use of rapid nutrition assessments, in particular of children, to give a quantitative measure of the famine's severity. Since 2003, many of the most important organizations in famine relief, such as the World Food Programme and the U.S. Agency for International Development, have adopted a five-level scale measuring intensity and magnitude. The intensity scale uses both livelihoods' measures and measurements of mortality and child malnutrition to categorize a situation as food secure, food insecure, food crisis, famine, severe famine, and extreme famine. The number of deaths determines the magnitude designation, with under 1000 fatalities defining a "minor famine" and a "catastrophic famine" resulting in over 1,000,000 deaths.

[edit]Causes
See also: Theories of famines Definitions of famines are based on three different categories these include food supply-based, food consumption-based and mortality-based definitions. Some definitions of famines are:

Blix Widespread food shortage leading to significant rise in regional death rates.[14] Brown and Eckholm Sudden, sharp reduction in food supply resulting in widespread hunger.[15] Scrimshaw Sudden collapse in level of food consumption of large numbers of people.[16] Ravallion Unusually high mortality with unusually severe threat to food intake of some segments of a population.[17]

Cuny A set of conditions that occurs when large numbers of people in a region cannot obtain sufficient food, resulting in widespread, acute malnutrition.[18]

Food shortages in a population are caused either by a lack of food or by difficulties in food distribution; it may be worsened by natural climate fluctuations and by extreme political conditions related to oppressive government or warfare. One of the proportionally largest historical famines was the Bengal Famine of 1770 in the lower Gangetic plain of East India Company ruled North East India. It began in 1770 due to severe extractive practices of the East India Company.[19] An estimated ten million people died in the famine, roughly one in three people in the affected area.[20] The deaths were greatly exacerbated by the fact that the East India Company raised land taxes by 10% at the height of the famine, in April 1770. The conventional explanation until 1981 for the cause of famines was the Food availability decline (FAD) hypothesis. The assumption was that the central cause of all famines was a decline in food availability.[21] However, FAD could not explain why only a certain section of the population such as the agricultural laborer was affected by famines while others were insulated from famines.[22] Based on the studies of some recent famines, the decisive role of FAD has been questioned and it has been suggested that the causal mechanism for precipitating starvation includes many variables other than just decline of food availability. According to this view, famines are a result of entitlements, the theory being proposed is called the "failure of exchange entitlements" or FEE.[22] A person may own various commodities that can be exchanged in a market economy for the other commodities he or she needs. The exchange can happen via trading or production or through a combination of the two. These entitlements are called trade-based or production-based entitlements. Per this proposed view, famines are precipitated due to a break down in the ability of the person to exchange his entitlements.[22] An example of famines due to FEE is the inability of an agricultural laborer to exchange his primary entitlement, i.e., labor for rice when his employment became erratic or was completely eliminated.[22] Some elements make a particular region more vulnerable to famine. These include:[23]

Poverty Inappropriate social infrastructure A suppressive political regime A weak or under-prepared government

[edit]State-sponsored

famine

In certain cases, such as the Great Leap Forward in China (which produced the largest famine in absolute numbers), North Korea in the mid-1990s, or Zimbabwe in the early-2000s, famine can occur because of government policy. Few historians have argued that the Great Irish Famine was not caused by the shortage of food, given that Ireland was producing enough food to feed its eight million people, but by the British government's choice to leave open the ports, as they are normally close during Irish crop blights. Records show that in past famines, ports were closed to keep Irish-grown food in Ireland to feed the Irish. However, this did not occur in the 1840s, and Ireland continued to export food during the Famine. Law

professor Charles E. Rice of Notre Dame as well as International Law professor at theUniversity of Illinois Francis A. Boyle have argued that the British government committed genocide by pursuing a policy of starvation in Ireland. This claim has been debated throughout history, but also shows the troubles between the two countries. In 1932, under the USSR, Ukraine experienced one of their largest famine as a result of state sponsored famine. Termed Holodomor, meaning killing by hunger, between 2.4 and 7.5 millions peasants died from a planned repression to eliminate protesters of collectivization as well as the Ukrainian race. [citation
needed]

Forced grain quotas imposed upon the rural peasants and brutal terror contributed to the widespread

famine despite the large grain harvest and good weather. The famine was also accompanied by a large campaign to suppress Ukrainian culture. Soviets continued to deny the problem and did not provide for victims nor accept foreign aid. In 1958 in China, Mao Zedong's Communist Government began the Great Leap Forward campaign, aimed at rapidly industrializing the country. The government forcibly took control of agriculture. Barely enough grain was left for the peasants, and starvation set in in many rural areas. Exportation of grain continued despite the famine to conceal the problem. While the famine is attributed to unintended consequences, it is believed that the government refused to acknowledge the problem, thereby further contributing to the deaths. In many instances, peasants were persecuted. Between 16.5 to 46 million people perished in this famine, making it one of the most deadly famines to date.[24] Malawi ended its famine by subsidizing farmers against the strictures of the World Bank.[7] During the 1973 Wollo Famine in Ethiopia, food was shipped out of Wollo to the capital city of Addis Ababa, where it could command higher prices. In the late-1970s and early-1980s, residents of the dictatorships of Ethiopia and Sudan suffered massive famines, but the democracies of Botswana and Zimbabwe avoided them, despite also have severe drops in national food production. In Somalia, famine occurred because of a failed state. Many famines are caused by imbalance of food production compared to the large populations of countries whose population exceeds the regional carrying capacity. Historically, famines have occurred from agricultural problems such as drought, crop failure, or pestilence. Changing weather patterns, the ineffectiveness of medieval governments in dealing with crises, wars, and epidemic diseases such as the Black Death helped to cause hundreds of famines in Europe during the Middle Ages, including 95 in Britain and 75 in France.[25] In France, the Hundred Years' War, crop failures and epidemics reduced the population by two-thirds.[26] The failure of a harvest or change in conditions, such as drought, can create a situation whereby large numbers of people continue to live where the carrying capacity of the land has temporarily dropped radically. Famine is often associated with subsistence agriculture. The total absence of agriculture in an economically strong area does not cause famine;Arizona and other wealthy regions import the vast majority of their food, since such regions produce sufficient economic goods for trade.

Famines have also been caused by volcanism. The 1815 eruption of the Mount Tambora volcano in Indonesia caused crop failures and famines worldwide and caused the worst famine of the 19th century. The current consensus of the scientific community is that the aerosols and dust released into the upper atmosphere causes cooler temperatures by preventing the sun's energy from reaching the ground. The same mechanism is theorized to be caused by very large meteorite impacts to the extent of causing mass extinctions.

[edit]Risk

of future famine

See also: Water crisis The Guardian reports that in 2007 approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.[27] If current trends of soil degradation continue in Africa, the continent might be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025, according to UNU's Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa.[28] As of late 2007, increased farming for use inbiofuels,[29] along with world oil prices at nearly $100 a barrel,[30] has pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year.[31][32] In 2007 Food riots have taken place in many countries across the world.[33][34][35] An epidemic of stem rust, which is destructive to wheat and is caused by race Ug99, has in 2007 spread across Africa and into Asia.[36][37] Beginning in the 20th century, nitrogen fertilizers, new pesticides, desert farming, and other agricultural technologies began to be used to increase food production, in part to combat famine. Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution influenced agriculture, world grain production increased by 250%. Much of this gain is non-sustainable. Such agricultural technologies temporarily increased crop yields, but as early as 1995, there were signs that they may be contributing to the decline of arable land (e.g. persistence of pesticides leading to soil contamination and decline of area available for farming). Developed nations have shared these technologies with developing nations with a famine problem, but there are ethical limits to pushing such technologies on lesser developed countries. This is often attributed to an association of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides with a lack of sustainability. David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy the maximum U.S. population for asustainable economy at 200 million.[39] To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says study.[40] The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. The oncoming peaking of global oilproduction (and subsequent decline of production), along with the peak of North American natural gas production will very likely precipitate this agricultural crisis much sooner than expected. Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.[41] Water deficits, which are already

spurring heavy grain imports in numerous smaller countries, may soon do the same in larger countries, such as China or India.[42] The water tables are falling in scores of countries (including Northern China, the US, and India) due to widespread overpumping using powerful diesel and electric pumps. Other countries affected include Pakistan, Iran, andMexico. This will eventually lead to water scarcity and cutbacks in grain harvest. Even with the overpumping of its aquifers, China has developed a grain deficit, contributing to the upward pressure on grain prices. Most of the three billion people projected to be added worldwide by midcentury will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages. After China and India, there is a second tier of smaller countries with large water deficits Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, and Pakistan. Four of these already import a large share of their grain. Only Pakistan remains marginally self-sufficient. But with a population expanding by 4 million a year, it will also soon turn to the world market for grain.[43][44] According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan glaciers that are the principal dry-season water sources of Asia's biggest rivers Ganges, Indus,Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow - could disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise and human demand rises.[45] It was later revealed that the source used by the UN climate report actually stated 2350, not 2035.[46] Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers.[47] India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan,Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by severe droughts in coming decades.[48] In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.[49][50]

[edit]Famine

action

[edit]Prevention
Main article: food security The effort to bring modern agricultural techniques found in the West, such as nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides, to Asia, called the Green Revolution, resulted in decreases in malnutrition similar to those seen earlier in Western nations. This was possible because of existing infrastructure and institutions that are in short supply in Africa, such as a system of roads or public seed companies that made seeds available.[51] Supporting farmers in areas of food insecurity, through such measures as free or subsidized fertilizers andseeds, increases food harvest and reduces food prices.[7][52] The World Bank and some rich nations press nations that depend on them for aid to cut back or eliminate subsidized agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, in the name ofprivatization even as the United States and Europe extensively subsidized their own farmers.[7][53] Many, if not most, of the farmers are too poor to afford fertilizer at market prices.[7] For example, in the case of Malawi, almost five million of its 13 million people used to need emergency food aid. However, after the government changed policy and subsidies for fertilizer and seed were introduced, farmers produced record-breaking corn harvests in 2006 and 2007 as production leaped to 3.4 million in 2007 from 1.2 million in 2005.[7] This lowered food prices and increased wages for farm workers.[7] Malawi became a major food exporter, selling more corn to

the World Food Program and the United Nations than any other country in Southern Africa.[7] Proponents for helping the farmers includes the economist Jeffrey Sachs, who has championed the idea that wealthy countries should invest in fertilizer and seed for Africas farmers.[7]

[edit]Relief
Main article: famine relief Deficient Micronutrient can be provided through fortifying foods.[54] Fortifying foods such as peanut butter sachets (see Plumpy'Nut) and Spirulina have revolutionized emergency feeding in humanitarian emergencies because they can be eaten directly from the packet, do not require refrigeration or mixing with scarce clean water, can be stored for years and, vitally, can be absorbed by extremely ill children. [2] The United Nations World Food Conference of 1974 declared Spirulina as 'the best food for the future' and its ready harvest every 24 hours make it a potent tool to eradicate malnutrition. What is recommended by WHO and other sources for malnourished children or adults who also have diarrhea is drinking rehydration solution, continuing to eat, antibiotics, and zinc supplements.[55][56][57] There is a special oral rehydration solution called ReSoMal which has less sodium and more potassium than standard solution. However, if the diarrhea is severe, the standard solution is preferable as the person needs the extra sodium.[56] Obviously, this is a judgment call best made by a physician, and using either solution is better than doing nothing. Zinc supplements often can help reduce the duration and severity of diarrhea, and Vitamin A can also be helpful.[3] The World Health Organization is quite emphatic on the importance of a person with diarrhea continuing to eat, with a 2005 publication for physicians stating: Food should never be withheld and the child's usual foods should not be diluted. Breastfeeding should always be continued."[55] There is a growing realization among aid groups that giving cash or cash vouchers instead of food is a cheaper, faster, and more efficient way to deliver help to the hungry, particularly in areas where food is available but unaffordable.[4] The UN's World Food Program (WFP), the biggest non-governmental distributor of food, announced that it will begin distributing cash and vouchers instead of food in some areas, which Josette Sheeran, the WFP's executive director, described as a "revolution" in food aid. [4][5] The aid agency Concern Worldwide is piloting a method through a mobile phone operator, Safaricom, which runs a money transfer program that allows cash to be sent from one part of the country to another.[4] However, for people in a drought living a long way from and with limited access to markets, delivering food may be the most appropriate way to help.[4] Fred Cuny stated that "the chances of saving lives at the outset of a relief operation are greatly reduced when food is imported. By the time it arrives in the country and gets to people, many will have died."[58]US Law, which requires buying food at home rather than where the hungry live, is inefficient because approximately half of what is spent goes for transport. [59] Fred Cuny further pointed out "studies of every recent famine have shown that food was available in-country though not always in the immediate food deficit area" and "even though by local standards the prices are too high

for the poor to purchase it, it would usually be cheaper for a donor to buy the hoarded food at the inflated price than to import it from abroad."[60] Ethiopia has been pioneering a program that has now become part of the World Bank's prescribed recipe for coping with a food crisis and had been seen by aid organizations as a model of how to best help hungry nations. Through the country's main food assistance program, the Productive Safety Net Program, Ethiopia has been giving rural residents who are chronically short of food, a chance to work for food or cash. Foreign aid organizations like the World Food Program were then able to buy food locally from surplus areas to distribute in areas with a shortage of food.[61]

[edit]History
Further information: List of famines During the 20th century, an estimated 70 million people died from famines across the world, of whom an estimated 30 million died during the famine of 195861 in China.[62] The other most notable famines of the century included the 19421945 disaster in Bengal, famines in China in 1928 and 1942, and a sequence of famines in the Soviet Union, including the Soviet famine of 1932-1933, Stalin's famine inflicted on USSR in 193233. A few of the great famines of the late 20th century were: the Biafran famine in the 1960s, the disaster in Cambodia in the 1970s, the Ethiopian famine of 198485 and the North Korean famine of the 1990s.

[edit]Africa
In the mid-22nd century BC, a sudden and short-lived climatic change that caused reduced rainfall resulted in several decades of drought in Upper Egypt. The resulting famine and civil strife is believed to have been a major cause of the collapse of the Old Kingdom. An account from the First Intermediate Period states, "All of Upper Egypt was dying of hunger and people were eating their children." In 1680s, famine extended across the entire Sahel, and in 1738 half the population of Timbuktu died of famine.[63] In Egypt, between 1687 and 1731, there were six famines.[64] The famine that afflicted Egypt in 1784 cost it roughly one-sixth of its population.[65] At the end of the 18th century,[66] and even more at the beginning of the nineteenth, the Maghreb suffered from the deadly combination of plague and famine.[67] Tripoli and Tunis experienced famine in 1784 and 1785 respectively.[68] According to John Iliffe, "Portuguese records of Angola from the 16th century show that a great famine occurred on average every seventy years; accompanied by epidemic disease, it might kill one-third or onehalf of the population, destroying the demographic growth of a generation and forcing colonists back into the river valleys."[69] The First Documentation of weather in West-Central Africa occurs around the mid sixteenth-seventeenth centuries in areas such as Luanda Kongo, however, not much data was recorded on the issues of weather and disease except for a few notable documents. The only records obtained are of violence between Portuguese and Africans during the battle of mbilwa in 1665. In these documents the Portuguese wrote of

African raids on Portuguese merchants solely for food, giving clear signs of famine. Additionally, Instances of Cannibalism by the African Jaga were also more prevalent during this time frame, indicating an extreme deprivation of a primary food source.[70] Historians of African famine have documented repeated famines in Ethiopia. Possibly the worst episode occurred in 1888 and succeeding years, as the epizootic rinderpest, introduced into Eritrea by infected cattle, spread southwards reaching ultimately as far as South Africa. In Ethiopia it was estimated that as much as 90 percent of the national herd died, rendering rich farmers and herders destitute overnight. This coincided withdrought associated with an el Nino oscillation, human epidemics of smallpox, and in several countries, intense war. The Ethiopian Great faminethat afflicted Ethiopia from 1888 to 1892 cost it roughly one-third of its population.[71] In Sudan the year 1888 is remembered as the worst famine in history, on account of these factors and also the exactions imposed by the Mahdist state. Much of the famines occurring in the 19th and early 20th centuries were caused by wars involving colonization by the British, Spanish, Portuguese, and Belgian empires.[citation needed] Greed and the will to control the territory was what spurred most of these initial droughts into out of control famines. By withholding food supplies, the ensuing famine would suppress any rebellions or opposition to colonization.[citation needed] A prominent figure in the starvation of many Africans around the turn of the 20th century was Belgian King Leopold II who is credited with the forming of the Congo. In forming this so-called free state, Leopold used mass labor camps to finance his empire.[72] These camps were occupied by enslaved Africans who were often starved to death.[citation needed] His empire contributed to the death of roughly 10 million Africans and has had long lasting effects on the current Republic of Congo in which famine and rape are still occurring.[73] William Rubinstein wrote: "More basically, it appears almost certain that the population figures given by Hochschild are inaccurate. There is, of course, no way of ascertaining the population of the Congo before the twentieth century, and estimates like 20 million are purely guesses. Most of the interior of the Congo was literally unexplored if not inaccessible." [74] Colonial "pacification" efforts often caused severe famine, as for example with the repression of the Maji Maji revolt in Tanganyika in 1906. The introduction of cash crops such as cotton, and forcible measures to impel farmers to grow these crops, also impoverished the peasantry in many areas, such as northern Nigeria, contributing to greater vulnerability to famine when severe drought struck in 1913. Another example of this pacification can be taken from the years revolving around 1896 in which the British empire destroyed large amounts of grain and food stocks, suppressing a riot being formed by the Ndeblee tribe.[75] Records compiled for the Himba recall two droughts from 1910-1917. They were recorded by the Himba through a method of oral tradition. From 1910-1911 the Himba described the drought as "drought of the omutati seed" also called omangowi, which means the fruit of an unidentified vine that people ate during the time period. From 1914-1916 droughts brought katur' ombanda or kari' ombanda which means "the time of eating clothing".[76]

For the middle part of the 20th century, agriculturalists, economists and geographers did not consider Africa to be famine prone (they were much more concerned about Asia).[citation needed] There were notable counter-examples, such as the famine in Rwanda during World War II and the Malawi famine of 1949, but most famines were localized and brief food shortages. Although the drought was brief the main cause of death in Rwanda was due to Belgian prerogatives to acquisition grain from their colony (Rwanda). This and the drought caused 300,000 Rwandans to perish.[72]

[edit]1950-2000
The modern records (those pertaining from 1950present) are the most complete and accurate summary of the famines occurring in Africa. During this period after WWII many of Africa's colonies had gained their independence, however, those that assumed power continued to control the population the same as their previous oppressors. It could be said that with a vacuum of leadership in Africa following WWII, the famines that occurred were of a much greater magnitude. From 1967-1969 large scale famine occurs in Biafra and Nigeria due to the government blockading the Breakaway territory (see: [Nigerian Civil War]). It is estimated that 1.5 million people died of starvation due to this famine. Additionally, with the added effect of the drought and other corrupt governments withholding food during this time; 500,000 Africans perish in Central and West Africa. [77] The specter of famine recurred only in the early 1970s, when Ethiopia and the west African Sahel suffered drought and famine. The Ethiopian famine of that time was closely linked to the crisis of feudalism in that country, and in due course helped to bring about the downfall of the Emperor Haile Selassie. The Sahelian famine was associated with the slowly growing crisis of pastoralism in Africa, which has seen livestock herding decline as a viable way of life over the last two generations. Since then, African famines become more frequent, more widespread and more severe until the turn of the 21st Century. Since then, more effective early warning and humanitarian response actions have reduced the number of deaths by famine markedly. That said, many African countries are not self-sufficient in food production, relying on income from cash crops to import food. Agriculture in Africa is susceptible to climaticfluctuations, especially droughts which can reduce the amount of food produced locally. Other agricultural problems include soil infertility, land degradation and erosion, swarms of desert locusts, which can destroy whole crops, and livestock diseases. The Sahara reportedly spreads at a rate of up to 30 miles a year.[78] The most serious famines have been caused by a combination of drought, misguided economic policies, and conflict. The 198385 famine in Ethiopia, for example, was the outcome of all these three factors, made worse by the Communist government's censorship of the emerging crisis. In Sudan at the same date, drought and economic crisis combined with denials of any food shortage by the thengovernment of President Gaafar Nimeiry, to create a crisis that killed perhaps 250,000 peopleand helped bring about a popular uprising that overthrew Nimeiry. Numerous factors make the food security situation in Africa tenuous, including political instability, armed conflict and civil war, corruption and mismanagement in handling food supplies, and trade policies that

harm African agriculture. An example of a famine created by human rights abuses is the 1998 Sudan famine. AIDS is also having long-term economic effects on agriculture by reducing the available workforce, and is creating new vulnerabilities to famine by overburdening poor households. On the other hand, in the modern history of Africa on quite a few occasions famines acted as a major source of acute political instability.[79] In Africa, if current trends of population growth and soil degradation continue, the continent might be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025, according to United Nations University (UNU)'s Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa.[28] Recent examples include Sahel drought of the 1970s, Ethiopia in 1973 and mid-1980s, Sudan in the late1970s and again in 1990 and 1998. The 1980 famine in Karamoja, Uganda was, in terms of mortality rates, one of the worst in history. 21% of the population died, including 60% of the infants. [2] In the 1980s there was large scale multilayer drought that occurred in the Sudan and Sahelian region of Africa. This was a large concern because even though the Sudanese Government believed there was a surplus of grain, there were local deficits that were occurring across the region. [80] In October 1984, television reports around the world carried footage of starving Ethiopians whose plight was centered around a feeding station near the town of Korem. BBCnewsreader Michael Buerk gave moving commentary of the tragedy on 23 October 1984, which he described as a "biblical famine". This prompted the Band Aid single, which was organized by Bob Geldof and featured more than 20 pop stars. The Live Aid concerts in London and Philadelphia raised even more funds for the cause. An estimated 900,000 people died within one year as a result of the famine, but the tens of millions of pounds raised by Band Aid and Live Aid are widely believed to have saved the lives of Ethiopians who were in danger of dying. A central reason as to why the famine (one of the largest seen in the country) is thought to have occurred is that Ethiopia (and the surrounding Horn) was still recovering from the droughts which occurred in the midlate 1970s. Compounding this problem was the intermittent fighting erupting in the region due to a civil war occurring in Ethiopia. Further issues were created by the government's lack of organization in providing relief; many even hoarded supplies as a way to control the population. Ultimately, over 1 million Ethiopians died and over 22 million people suffered due to the prolonged drought, which lasted roughly 2 years. [81] Subsequently in 1992 Somalia becomes a war zone with no effective government, police, or basic services. This is mainly due to the collapse of the dictatorship led by [Barre] and the split of power between warlords. Additionally a massive drought occurs at the same instance causing over 300,000 Somalians to perish.[82]

[edit]Cases since 2000

Main article: 200506 Niger food crisis The 200506 Niger food crisis was a severe but localized food security crisis in the regions of northern Maradi, Tahoua, Tillabri, and Zinderof Niger. It was caused by an early end to the 2004 rains, desert locust damage to some pasture lands, high food prices, and chronic poverty. In the affected area, 2.4 million of 3.6 million people are considered highly vulnerable to food insecurity An international

assessment stated that, of these, over 800,000 face extreme food insecurity and another 800,000 in moderately insecure food situations are in need of aid. Main article: 2010 Sahel famine The 2010 Sahel famine hit millions in Niger and across West Africa face food shortages after erratic rains hit farming in countries in theSahel region south of the Sahara desert, the European Commission's aid group said Thursday. The erratic rains in the 2009/2010 agricultural season have resulted in an enormous deficit in food production in these countries," he said of nations such as Niger, Chad, northern Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria. He said strong leadership would be required from the United Nations and the rest of the international community to mobilise aid. "If we work fast enough, early enough, it won't be a famine. If we don't there is a strong risk." Main article: 2011 Horn of Africa famine In July 2011, a severe drought in Eastern Africa has caused thousands to die. However, with the threat of al-Qaeda and the rebel militia, aid is not being delivered effectively. Humanitarian agencies have not been able to access the south, the region hardest hit, and some 500,000 famine victims remained trapped with the risk of other diseases spreading in the area. Experts are calling for the prosecution of Al Shabab for crimes against humanity for perpetuating the famine[83] [84] July 6 saw the Methodist Relief and Development Fund (MRDF) aid experts say that more than 1,500,000 Nigerians were at risk of famine due to a month long heat wave that was hovering over Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Morocco. A fund of about 20,000 was distributed to the crisis-hit countries of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Mauritania.[85]

[edit]Initiatives to increase Food Security

Against a backdrop of conventional interventions through the state or markets, alternative initiatives have been pioneered to address the problem of food security. An example is the "Community Area-Based Development Approach" to agricultural development ("CABDA"), an NGO programme with the objective of providing an alternative approach to increasing food security in Africa. CABDA proceeds through specific areas of intervention such as the introduction of drought-resistant crops and new methods of food production such as agro-forestry. Piloted in Ethiopia in the 1990s it has spread to Malawi, Uganda, Eritrea and Kenya. In an analysis of the programme by the Overseas Development Institute, CABDA's focus on individual and community capacity-building is highlighted. This enables farmers to influence and drive their own development through community-run institutions, bringing food security to their household and region.[86]

Asia
[edit]Cambodia In 1975, the Khmer Rouge entered the capital of Phnom Penh and took control of Cambodia. With the application of the fundamental ideals of communism, the new government under Pol Pot drove all urban residents into the countryside to work on communal farm and civil work projects. Without

external assistance, with 75% of the necessary draft animals dead from the previous four years of war, agricultural guidelines written by idealists, and work overseen by zealous cadre, the country soon sunk into the depths of famine. No international relief would come until the Vietnamese army invaded in 1979 and liberated the country. While Pol Pot was in power, between one and three million people died out of a total population of eight million. Many were executed, most died from malnourishment [87][88][89] and exhaustion as a result of the famine caused by inept and negligent government officials. [edit]China See also: Great Chinese Famine Chinese scholars had kept count of 1,828 instances of famine since 108 B.C. to 1911 in one province [90] or another an average of close to one famine per year. From 1333 to 1337 a terrible famine killed 6 million Chinese. The four famines of 1810, 1811, 1846, and 1849 are said to have killed no [91] fewer than 45 million people. The period from 1850 to 1873 saw, as a result of the Taiping Rebellion, drought, and famine, the population of China drop by over 60 million [92] people. China's Qing Dynasty bureaucracy, which devoted extensive attention to minimizing famines, is credited with averting a series of famines following El Nio-Southern Oscillation-linked droughts and floods. These events are comparable, though somewhat smaller in scale, to the ecological trigger events of China's vast 19th century famines. (Pierre-Etienne Will, Bureaucracy and Famine) Qing China carried out its relief efforts, which included vast shipments of food, a requirement that the rich open their storehouses to the poor, and price regulation, as part of a state guarantee of subsistence to the peasantry (known as ming-sheng). When a stressed monarchy shifted from state management and direct shipments of grain to monetary charity in the mid-nineteenth century, the system broke down. Thus the 186768 famine under the Tongzhi Restoration was successfully relieved but the Great North China Famine of 187778, caused by drought across northern China, was a catastrophe. The province of Shanxi was substantially depopulated as grains ran out, and desperately starving people stripped forests, fields, [93] and their very houses for food. Estimated mortality is 9.5 to 13 million people. (Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts)

[edit]Great Leap Forward

Main article: Great Leap Forward The largest famine of the 20th century, and almost certainly of all time, was the 1958 61 Great Leap Forward famine in China. The immediate causes of this famine lay in Mao Zedong's ill-fated attempt to transform China from an agricultural nation to an industrial power in one huge leap. Communist Party cadres across China insisted that peasants abandon their farms for collective farms, and begin to produce steel in small foundries, often melting down their farm instruments in the process. Collectivisation undermined incentives for the investment of labor and resources in agriculture; unrealistic plans for decentralized metal production sapped needed labor; unfavorable weather conditions; and communal dining halls encouraged overconsumption of available food (see Chang, G, and Wen, G (1997), "Communal dining and the Chinese Famine 1958-1961" ). Such was the centralized control of information and the intense pressure on party cadres to report only good newssuch as production quotas met or exceededthat information about the escalating disaster was effectively suppressed. When the leadership did become aware of the scale of the famine, it did little to respond, and continued to ban any discussion of the cataclysm. This blanket suppression of news was so effective that very few Chinese citizens were aware of the scale of the famine, and the greatest peacetime demographic disaster of the 20th century only became widely known twenty years later, when the veil of censorship began to lift.

The 195861 famine is estimated to have caused excess mortality of about 36 to 45 million, with [96] a further 30 million cancelled or delayed births. It was only when the famine had wrought its worst that Mao was forced to reverse agricultural collectivisation policies, which were effectively dismantled in 1978. China has not experienced a famine of the proportions of the Great Leap Forward since [97] 1961. [edit]India Main article: Famine in India Owing to its almost entire dependence upon the monsoon rains, India is vulnerable to crop failures, [98] which upon occasion deepen into famine. There were 14 famines in Indiabetween 11th and 17th century (Bhatia, 1985). For example, during the 10221033 Great famines in India entire provinces were depopulated. Famine in Deccan killed at least 2 million people in 1702-1704. B.M. Bhatia believes that the earlier famines were localised, and it was only after 1860, during the British rule, that famine came to signify general shortage of foodgrains in the country. There were approximately 25 major famines spread through states such as Tamil Nadu in the south, and Bihar and Bengal in the east during the latter half of the 19th century. Romesh Chunder Dutt argued as early as 1900, and present-day scholars such as Amartya Sen agree, that some historic famines were a product of both uneven rainfall and British economic and administrative policies, which since 1857 had led to the seizure and conversion of local farmland to foreign-owned plantations, restrictions on internal trade, heavy taxation of Indian citizens to support British expeditions inAfghanistan (see The Second Anglo-Afghan War), inflationary measures that increased the price of food, and substantial exports of staple crops from India to Britain. (Dutt, 1900 and 1902; Srivastava, 1968; Sen, 1982; Bhatia, 1985.) Some British citizens, such as William Digby, agitated for policy reforms and famine relief, but Lord Lytton, the governing British viceroy in India, opposed such changes in the belief that they would stimulate shirking by Indian workers. The first, the Bengal famine of 1770, is estimated to have taken around 10 million lives one-third of Bengal's population at the time. Other notable famines include the Great Famine of 187678, in which 6.1 [99] million to 10.3 million people died and the Indian famine of 18991900, in which 1.25 to 10 million [99] people died. The famines continued until independence in 1947, with the Bengal Famine of 1943 44 even though there were no crop failures killing 1.5 million to 3 million Bengalis during World War II. The observations of the Famine Commission of 1880 support the notion that food distribution is more to blame for famines than food scarcity. They observed that each province in British India, including Burma, had a surplus of foodgrains, and the annual surplus was 5.16 million tons (Bhatia, 1970). At that time, annual export of rice and other grains from India was approximately one million tons.

[94][95]

Population growth worsened the plight of the peasantry. As a result of peace and improved sanitation and health, the Indian population rose from perhaps 100 million in 1700 to 300 million by 1920. While encouraging agricultural productivity, the British also provided economic incentives to have more children to help in the fields. Although a similar population increase occurred in Europe at the same time, the growing numbers could be absorbed by industrialization or emigration to the Americas and Australia. India enjoyed neither an industrial revolution nor an increase in food growing. Moreover, Indian landlords had a stake in the cash crop system and discouraged innovation. As a result, population numbers far outstripped the amount of available food and land, creating dire

poverty and widespread hunger .

-Craig A. Lockard, Societies, Networks, and Transitions[100]

In 1966, there was a close call in Bihar, when the United States allocated 900,000 tons of grain to fight the famine. Three years of drought in India resulted in an estimated 1.5 million deaths from [101] starvation and disease. [edit]Japan Between 1603 and 1868 there were, according to one authority, at least 130 famines, of which 21 [102] were widespread and serious. [edit]Middle East Iraq, for example, had suffered famines in 1801, 1827 and 1831. In Anatolia, a great famine erupted [103] in 1873-74 and killed tens of thousands. The Great Persian Famine of 18701871 is believed to have caused the death of 1.5 million persons in Persia (presentday Iran), which would represent 2025 percent of Persia's estimated total [104] population of 67 million. Lebanon became increasingly dependent on food imports from abroad, making the country extremely vulnerable to famine during World War I. By the end of the war, an estimated 100,000 of Lebanon's [105] 450,000 population had died of famine. [edit]North Korea Main article: North Korean famine Famine struck North Korea in the mid-1990s, set off by unprecedented floods. This autarkic urban, industrial society had achieved food self-sufficiency in prior decades through a massive industrialization of agriculture. However, the economic system relied on massive concessionary inputs of fossil fuels, primarily from the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China. When the Soviet collapse and China's marketization switched trade to a hard currency, full price basis, North Korea's economy collapsed. The vulnerable agricultural sector experienced a massive failure in 1995 96, expanding to full-fledged famine by 199699. An estimated 600,000 died of starvation (other [106] estimates range from 200,000 to 3.5 million). North Korea has not yet resumed its food selfsufficiency and relies on external food aid from China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States. While Woo-Cumings have focused on the FAD side of the famine, Moon argues that FAD shifted the incentive structure of the authoritarian regime to react in a way that forced millions of [107] disenfranchised people to starve to death (Moon, 2009). [edit]Vietnam Various famines have occurred in Vietnam. Japanese occupation during World War II caused the Vietnamese Famine of 1945, which caused 2 million deaths, or 10% of the population [108] then. Following the unification of the country after the Vietnam War, Vietnam experienced a food shortage in the 1980s, which prompted many people to flee the country. [edit]Europe [edit]Western Europe Further information: Medieval demography and Crisis of the Late Middle Ages

The Great Famine of 13151317 (or to 1322) was the first major food crisis that struck Europe in the 14th century. Millions in northern Europe would die over an extended number of years, marking a [109] clear end to the earlier period of growth and prosperity during the 11th and 12th centuries. Starting with bad weather in the spring of 1315, widespread crop failures lasted until the summer of 1317, from which Europe did not fully recover until 1322. It was a period marked by extreme levels of criminal activity, disease and mass death, infanticide, and cannibalism. It had consequences for Church, State, European society and future calamities to follow in the 14th century.Medieval Britain was [110] [111] afflicted by 95 famines, and France suffered the effects of 75 or more in the same period. The famine of 13156 may have killed at least 10% of England's population, or at least 500,000 [112] people. The 17th century was a period of change for the food producers of Europe. For centuries they had lived primarily as subsistence farmers in a feudal system. They had obligations to their lords, who had suzerainty over the land tilled by their peasants. The lord of a fief would take a portion of the crops and livestock produced during the year. Peasants generally tried to minimize the amount of work they had to put into agricultural food production. Their lords rarely pressured them to increase their food output, except when the population started to increase, at which time the peasants were likely to increase the production themselves. More land would be added to cultivation until there was no more available and the peasants were forced to take up more labour-intensive methods of production. Nonetheless, as long as they had enough to feed their families, they preferred to spend their time doing other things, such as hunting, fishing or relaxing. It was not necessary to produce more than they could eat or store themselves. During the 17th century, continuing the trend of previous centuries, there was an increase in marketdriven agriculture. Farmers, people who rented land in order to make a profit off of the product of the land, employing wage labour, became increasingly common, particularly in western Europe. It was in their interest to produce as much as possible on their land in order to sell it to areas that demanded that product. They produced guaranteed surpluses of their crop every year if they could. Farmers paid their labourers in money, increasing the commercialization of rural society. This commercialization had a profound impact on the behaviour of peasants. Farmers were interested in increasing labour input into their lands, not decreasing it as subsistence peasants were. Subsistence peasants were also increasingly forced to commercialize their activities because of increasing taxes. Taxes that had to be paid to central governments in money forced the peasants to produce crops to sell. Sometimes they produced industrial crops, but they would find ways to increase their production in order to meet both their subsistence requirements as well as their tax obligations. Peasants also used the new money to purchase manufactured goods. The agricultural and social developments encouraging increased food production were gradually taking place throughout the sixteenth century, but were spurred on more directly by the adverse conditions for food production that Europe found itself in the early seventeenth century there was a general cooling trend in the Earth's temperature starting at the beginning end of the sixteenth century. The 1590s saw the worst famines in centuries across all of Europe, except in certain areas, notably the Netherlands. Famine had been relatively rare during the 16th century. The economy and population had grown steadily as subsistence populations tend to when there is an extended period of relative peace (most of the time). Subsistence peasant populations will almost always increase when possible since the peasants will try to spread the work to as many hands as possible. Although peasants in areas of high population density, such as northern Italy, had learned to increase the yields of their lands through techniques such as promiscuous culture, they were still quite vulnerable to famines, forcing them to work their land even more intensively.

Famine is a very destabilizing and devastating occurrence. The prospect of starvation led people to take desperate measures. When scarcity of food became apparent to peasants, they would sacrifice long-term prosperity for short-term survival. They would kill their draught animals, leading to lowered production in subsequent years. They would eat their seedcorn, sacrificing next year's crop in the hope that more seed could be found. Once those means had been exhausted, they would take to the road in search of food. They migrated to the cities where merchants from other areas would be more likely to sell their food, as cities had a stronger purchasing power than did rural areas. Cities also administered relief programs and bought grain for their populations so that they could keep order. With the confusion and desperation of the migrants, crime would often follow them. Many peasants resorted to banditry in order to acquire enough to eat. One famine would often lead to difficulties in following years because of lack of seed stock or disruption of routine, or perhaps because of less-available labour. Famines were often interpreted as signs of God's displeasure. They were seen as the removal, by God, of His gifts to the people of the Earth. Elaborate religious processions and rituals were made to prevent God's wrath in the form of famine. The great famine of the 1590s began the period of famine and decline in the 17th century. The price of grain, all over Europe was high, as was the population. Various types of people were vulnerable to the succession of bad harvests that occurred throughout the 1590s in different regions. The increasing number of wage labourers in the countryside were vulnerable because they had no food of their own, and their meager living was not enough to purchase the expensive grain of a bad-crop year. Town labourers were also at risk because their wages would be insufficient to cover the cost of grain, and, to make matters worse, they often received less money in bad-crop years since the disposable income of the wealthy was spent on grain. Often, unemployment would be the result of the increase in grain prices, leading to ever-increasing numbers of urban poor. All areas of Europe were badly affected by the famine in these periods, especially rural areas. The Netherlands was able to escape most of the damaging effects of the famine, though the 1590s were still difficult years there. Actual famine did not occur, for the Amsterdam grain trade [with the Baltic] guaranteed that there would always be something to eat in the Netherlands although hunger was prevalent. The Netherlands had the most commercialized agriculture in all of Europe at this time, growing many industrial crops, such as flax, hemp, and hops. Agriculture became increasingly specialized and efficient. As a result, productivity and wealth increased, allowing the Netherlands to maintain a steady food supply. By the 1620s, the economy was even more developed, so the country was able to avoid the hardships of that period of famine with even greater impunity. The years around 1620 saw another period of famines sweep across Europe. These famines were generally less severe than the famines of twenty-five years earlier, but they were nonetheless quite serious in many areas. Perhaps the worst famine since 1600, the great famine in Finland in 1696, killed one-third of the population. [3] PDF (589 KiB) Two massive famines struck France between 1693 and 1710, killing over two million people. In both [113] cases the impact of harvest failure was exacerbated by wartime demands on the food supply. As late as the 1690s, Scotland experienced famine which reduced the population of parts of Scotland [114] by at least 15%. The famine of 169596 killed roughly 10% of Norway's population. At least nine severe harvest failures were recorded in the Scandinavian countries between 1740 and 1800, each resulting in a [116] substantial rise of the death rate.
[115]

The period of 174043 saw frigid winters and summer droughts which led to famine across Europe leading to a major spike in mortality. (cited in Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts, 281) The freezing winter of 1740-41, which led to widespread famine in northern Europe, may owe its origins to [117] a volcanic eruption. The Great Famine, which lasted from 1770 until 1771, killed about one tenth of Czech lands [118] population, or 250,000 inhabitants, and radicalized countrysides leading to peasant uprisings. Other areas of Europe have known famines much more recently. France saw famines as recently as the nineteenth century. Famine still occurred in eastern Europe during the 20th century. The frequency of famine can vary with climate changes. For example, during the little ice age of the 15th century to the 18th century, European famines grew more frequent than they had been during previous centuries. The led to the rise of conspiracy theories concerning the causes behind these [119] famines, such as the Pacte de Famine in France. Because of the frequency of famine in many societies, it has long been a chief concern of governments and other authorities. In pre-industrial Europe, preventing famine, and ensuring timely food supplies, was one of the chief concerns of many governments, which employed various tools to alleviate famines, including price controls, purchasing stockpiles of food from other areas, rationing, and regulation of production. Most governments were concerned by famine because it could lead to revolt and other forms of social disruption. Famine returned to the Netherlands during World War II in what was known as the Hongerwinter. It was the last famine of Western Europe, in which approximately 30,000 people died of starvation. Some other areas of Europe also experienced famine at the same time.

[edit]Italy
The harvest failures were devastating for the northern Italian economy. The economy of the area had recovered well from the previous famines, but the famines from 1618 to 1621 coincided because of a period of war in the area. The economy did not recover fully for centuries. There were serious famines in the late-1640s and less severe ones in the 1670s throughout northern Italy. In northern Italy, a report of 1767 noted that there had been famine in 111 of the previous 316 years [120] (i.e. the period 1451-1767) and only sixteen good harvests. According to Stephen L. Dyson and Robert J. Rowland, "The Jesuits of Cagliari [in Sardinia] recorded years during the late 1500s "of such hunger and so sterile that the majority of the people could sustain life only with wild ferns and other weeds" ... During the terrible famine of 1680, some 80,000 persons, [121] out of a total population of 250,000, are said to have died, and entire villages were devastated..."

[edit]England
From 1536 England began legislating Poor Laws which put a legal responsibility on the rich, at a parish level, to maintain the poor of that parish. English agriculture lagged behind the Netherlands, but by 1650 their agricultural industry was commercialized on a wide scale. The last peace-time [112] famine in England was in 162324. There were still periods ofhunger, as in the Netherlands, but there were no more famines as such. Rising population levels continued to put a strain on food security, despite potatoes becoming increasingly important in the diet of the poor. On balance, potatoes increased food security in England where they never replaced bread as the staple of the poor. Climate conditions were never likely to simultaneously be catastrophic for both the wheat and potato crops.

[edit]Iceland
According to Bryson (1974), there were thirty-seven famine years in Iceland between 1500 and [122] 1804. In 1783 the volcano Laki in south-central Iceland erupted. The lava caused little direct damage, but ash and sulfur dioxide spewed out over most of the country, causing three-quarters of the island's livestock to perish. In the following famine, around ten thousand people died, one-fifth of the population of Iceland. [Asimov, 1984, 152-153] Iceland was also hit by a potato famine between 1862 and 1864. Lesser known than the Irish potato famine, the Icelandic potato faminewas caused by the same blight that ravaged most of Europe during the 1840s. About 5 percent of Iceland's population died during the famine.

[edit]Finland
The country suffered from severe famines, and that of 16961697 may have killed a third of the [123] population. The Finnish famine of 18661868 killed 15% of the population.

[edit]Ireland
See also: Great Irish famine The Great Famine in Ireland, 18451849, was caused in part by policies of the Whig government of the United Kingdom under Lord Russell. The land in Ireland was owned mostly by Anglican people of English descent, who did not identify culturally or ethnically with the Irish population. The landlords were known as the Anglo-Irish and felt no compulsion to use their political clout to aid their tenants and in fact saw it as an opportunity to claim more land for high profit cattle grazing as the Irish died off or left. The British government's response to the food crisis in Ireland was to leave the matter solely to market forces to decide. In reality, since the British had forcefully taken the land from the native Irish over the centuries the Irish had little means to support themselves beyond the meager amount of land set aside for the potato crop. The potato had been grown by the Irish as it is a very high calorie per acre yield. Even if the Irish were able to obtain other crops they would not have been enough to support the population on the small amount of land allocated to them, only a potato crop could do that. Ireland was a net food exporter during the famine with the British army guarding ports and food depots from the starving crowds. The immediate effect was 1,000,000 dead and another 2,000,000 refugees fleeing to Britain, Australia [124] and the United States. After the famine passed, infertility caused by famine, diseases and emigration spurred by the landlord-run economy being so thoroughly undermined, caused the population to enter into a 100-year decline. It was not until the 1970s (half a century after most of Ireland became independent) that the population of Ireland, then at half of what it had been before the famine, began to rise again. This period of Irish population decline after the famine was at a time when the European population doubled and the English population increased fourfold. This left the country severely underpopulated. The population decline continued in parts of the country worst affected by the famine (the west coast) until the 1990s - 150 years after the famine. Before the Hunger, Ireland's population was over half of England's. Today it is less than 10%. The population of Ireland is 5 million but there are over 80 million more people of Irish descent outside of Ireland. That is sixteen times the population of Ireland. [edit]Russia and the USSR Main article: Famines in Russia and USSR

According to Scott and Duncan (2002), "Eastern Europe experienced more than 150 recorded famines between AD 1500 and 1700 and there were 100 hunger years and 121 famine years in [125] Russia between AD 971 and 1974." Droughts and famines in Imperial Russia are known to have happened every 10 to 13 years, with average droughts happening every 5 to 7 years. Eleven major famines scourged Russia between [126] 1845 and 1922, one of the worst being the famine of 18912. Famines continued in the Sovietera, the most notorious being the Holodomor in various parts of the country, especially the Volga, and the Ukrainian and northern Kazakh SSR's during the winter of 19321933. The Soviet famine of 1932 [127] 1933 is nowadays reckoned to have cost an estimated 6 million lives. The last major famine in the USSR happened in 1947 due to the severe drought and the mismanagement of grain reserves by the [128] Soviet government. The Hunger Plan, i.e. the Nazi plan to starve large sections of the Soviet population, caused the deaths of many. The Russian Academy of Sciences in 1995 reported civilian victims in the USSR at German hands, including Jews, totaled 13.7 million dead, 20% of the 68 million persons in the occupied USSR. This included 4.1 million famine and disease deaths in occupied territory. There were an additional estimated 3 million famine deaths in areas of the USSR not under German [129] occupation. The 872 days of the Siege of Leningrad (19411944) caused unparalleled famine in the Leningrad region through disruption of utilities, water, energy and food supplies. This resulted in the deaths of [130] about one million people. [edit]Latin

America
[131]

The pre-Columbian Americans often dealt with severe food shortages and famines. The persistent drought around 850 AD coincided with the collapse of Classic Mayacivilization, and the famine of One [132] Rabbit (A.D. 1454) was a major catastrophe in Mexico. Brazil's 187778 Grande Seca (Great Drought), the most severe ever recorded in Brazil, [134] [135] approximately half a million deaths. The one from 1915 was devastating too. [edit]Oceania Easter Island was a great famine between the XV and XVIII. Hunger and subsequent cannibalism was caused by overpopulation and depletion of natural resources as a result of intensive use of local [136] forests, needed to support the lifting of megalithic monuments. There are other documented episodes of famine in various islands of Polynesia, such as occurred [137] in Ka'u, Hawai'i in 1868. [edit]Society [edit]In
[133]

caused

and culture

folklore

Famine personified as an allegory is found in some cultures, e.g. one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse in Christian tradition, the fear gorta of Irish folklore, or the Wendigo of Algonquian tradition.

http://www.wfp.org/ http://www.worldbank.org/foodcrisis/

Air Pollution in China Contributing to Drought Food Shortages Possible

Severe air pollution in Chinas heavily industrialized east is impeding the formation of rain clouds and contributing to a drought in northern China, according to a new study. The study, which looked at rainfall and pollution patterns for the past 50 years, concluded that pollution has reduced the number of days of light rain in eastern China by 23 percent. Atmospheric scientist Yun Qian of the U.S. Department of Energys Pacific Northwest National Laboratory said that the large number of aerosols in Chinas polluted skies has led to the formation of rain droplets that are up to 50 percent smaller than rain droplets in clean skies. The smaller droplets do not as readily form rain clouds, which means that lighter rainfalls valuable to agriculture ranging from a drizzle to accumulations of .4 inch per day are occurring less frequently, according to the study, published in the Journal of Geophysical ResearchAtmospheres. Qian said his research suggests that reducing air pollution might help ease the drought in north China. Meanwhile, a new U.N. study says major improvements in irrigation efficiency are needed to avoid large-scale food shortages that would effect 1.5 billion people in China, India, and Pakistan.