WP SE5T 13 Pike Research

WHITE PAPER
Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Published 1Q 2013
Kerry-Ann Adamson, PhD Research Director Alex Lauderbaugh Research Associate Mackinnon Lawrence Senior Research Analyst
Section 1
INTRODUCTION
The smart energy paradigm is fast evolving from niche markets into a standardized part of the energy portfolio. Consensus across the board from the oil majors to national governments to technology developers indicates that a more diversified energy portfolio is developing. As a result of this development, combined with the almost inexorable shift toward an electron-based economy, a range of energy sources and advanced energy technologies has entered the market and started to post healthy revenue. Chart 1.1 gathers together information from seven high-growth fuel sources and energy conversion technologies that are part of the smart energy sector. Together, these areas will garner revenue of nearly $250 million in 2017.
Chart 1.1 Revenue of Seven High-Growth Areas in the Smart Energy Sector, World Markets: 2012-2017
$300
$250
($ Millions)
$200
Biopower Biorefinery Energy Storage for the Grid Fuel Cells Hydropower Small Wind Distributed Solar
$150
$100
$50
$2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Source: Pike Research)
2017
2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Instead of diving deep into each of the seven high-growth areas, this white paper views them at a much higher level, highlighting five metatrends that are emerging. These trends will have an increasing impact in 2013 and beyond. Essentially, they illustrate that power is expanding geographically and advancing technically. The five smart energy metatrends Pike Research has identified for 2013, in no particular order, are:

Energy is becoming increasingly democratized Role of government innovation funds is changing Technologies are converging Southern African Power Pool is becoming the new BRIC Role of utilities is changing
Section 2
ENERGY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DEMOCRATIZED
At a fundamental level, distributed generation (DG), a key part of the evolving smart energy sector, represents the democratization of energy. In the same fashion that the Internet has produced a democratization of information and knowledge, the availability of pico powerproducing technology, such as solar panels, small wind turbines, and residential combined heat and power (resCHP) systems, enables people to produce, and sell if desired, their own power. There will always be a large number of consumers who only want to consume and are happy to allow utilities the responsibility of producing and consuming power. However, we are seeing a subculture of consumers arise who are the groundbreaking lead adopters in this area. Figure 2.1 shows the transition of the Internet from (in essence) an online library of information into an organism that is growing and changing the way its users operate. As this process took over a decade and is ongoing, the process of energy democratization will also take a long time. We will not start to see large impacts on the energy market for some time yet. At present, the democratization of energy is in a phase that is the equivalent of 1996 in terms of Figure 2.1. Yet, we are cognizant of the potential of this trend in a way that users and developers of the Internet in 2006 were simply not.
Figure 2.1 Changing Democratization of Information from the Internet
(Source: Dipity)
One the key applications within this DG trend, and the democratization of energy, is resCHP. With a basket of technology and size options available, homeowners worldwide are increasingly able to produce power and sell power from tens of watts up to a few kilowatts. They are essentially transforming from passive consumers to active pico power plant producers.
Chart 2.1, taken from the 1Q 2012 Pike Research Residential Combined Heat and Power report, shows the capacity of resCHP. Pike Researchs forecasts anticipate a cumulative installed capacity of 26,568 MW between 2010 and 2022. Note, though, that with an increase in feed-in tariffs, a rise in systems available with islanding capability, and the removal of barriers to allow small producers to sell excess power back to the grid, this could be seen as a very pessimistic forecast.
Chart 2.1
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000
resCHP from Single and Multi-Family Dwellings, World Markets: 2010-2022
(MW)
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
In 2013 specifically, Pike Research expects to see growing concern from transmission and distribution companies about the potential impact of an increased number of small producers that they cannot control in terms of load available to be fed into the grid. This concern will likely lead to a call from grid owners and operating companies to be allowed to be able to control when and how much electricity is drawn from the resCHP systems. Meanwhile, adopters of resCHP systems will likely push back on allowing such control by grid owners and operating companies. Thus, in addition to the increased adoption of DG technologies in 2013 and the increased removal of barriers to sell on the grid, Pike Research expects it to be a key year in terms of opening up discussions. Two important parameters will likely be set: the rules of the game for producing, selling, and controlling decentralized power and the amount of democracy the adopters are to be allowed.
Section 3
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT INNOVATION FUNDS IS CHANGING
Global cleantech investment is down. The cleantech industry is dead. Not quite. But what we are seeing is a change in the roles of the private equity markets and quasi-independent government-funded innovation funds. In the Western world, the role of the private equity markets has traditionally been to shoulder innovation-based risk. The assumption has been that for every certain amount of investment bets, a number of these would pay with large dollar returns. Meanwhile, the role of government has been to promote innovation in the broadest sense and support research and development (R&D)-based organizations with funding in somewhat general program streams. During the dot-com boom, every fund jumped into the high-tech sector, often on the back of promise with a large dash of hope mixed in. Most, but critically not all, lost and badly. Those that won, seeing large returns, backed companies such as Google. In 2008, before the global economic downturn, cleantech investment from the private equity market was riding high, with a common question being: What is the Google of energy? Solar, wind, fuel cells, and battery technology saw year-to-year overall increases in investment. But in the complex, often commodity-based and subsidized energy marketplace, early revenue (or fast return on investment) has proved elusive for most cleantech companies. Then came the economic downturn, and private equity markets started shying away from high-risk investment with a longer-than-average time to exit. This exit of the private equity market left in a gap in the innovation chain and quasi-government-funded innovation funds have stepped in. What is interesting with this shift is that rather than investing in only one company, these new funds are providing funding for specific tailored R&D (or projects) to groups of companies. The funding comes with the strict caveat that it should be focused on moving the companies through the innovation chain. This is very different from providing funding for basic R&D research simply to reach point A.
Figure 3.1 Innovation Process Is Changing Traditional PE Investment Space
Government Innovation Funds
PE Markets
A good example of this type of funding was a 2012/2013 call from the United Kingdoms Technology Strategy Board (TSB). This $8 million (5 million) funding call was meant to seek to facilitate the development of new relationships between fuel cell / electrolysers stack and system developers and companies from outside the industry with technologies or products which could address outstanding supply chain / manufacturing needs. The aim was to help companies develop innovative manufacturing and build a robust supply chain that would then allow them to move faster and more efficiently along the innovation chain. Note that because this call is still ongoing, Pike Research will not be able to analyze the results and impacts of this funding until 2014 at the earliest. Pike Research forecasts that the gap left by the private equity markets will continue to be filled by government-backed innovation funds in 2013. These funds are able to shoulder a higher level of risk at an earlier stage in the innovation process and are able to focus on the societal good that some technologies could bring, rather than the potential short-term gain.
Section 4
TECHNOLOGIES ARE CONVERGING
One of the most exciting trends, from a technology perspective, that emerged in 2012 and will have a large impact in 2013 on the smart energy market is the convergence of technologies. To date, technologies and energy sources have evolved independent of each other. They have each carved, or attempted to carve, out market niches for themselves. However, with the emergence of energy storage in all its varied forms, technologies are starting to come together into systems from components into integrated solutions.
Figure 4.1 All the Pieces Coming Together
Market-Viable Energy Production Technology
Regulation
Energy Storage
New Business Models
Market Need / Market Pain
Market Pull
This technology convergence is occurring at the same time as a type of market convergence whereby market demand is increasing for solutions, not technology providers. One example of this technology and market convergence from 2012 comes from India. In January 2012, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) issued a directive requiring that 50% of all rural telecom base station towers and 33% of all urban towers in the country to be powered by hybrid solutions within 5 years. To put this another way, of the 3 million base stations already deployed in India, over 1 million of these must have hybrid solutions installed by 2017.
According to the directive, hybrid solutions involve a combination of renewable energy sources, such as hydrogen fuel cells, and grid electricity. It is this emphasis on solutions at a systems level, not just the adoption of a technology, that is pushing the market toward the convergence of technology into solutions. But without the energy storage option, this merging would not be possible. Thus, we are looking at a real convergence point. The missing piece of the technology solution is becoming available as the market is increasingly requiring a combined systems approach. In 2013, this convergence of technology availability and market demand will see a leap in sales of systems with an integrated approach, including power creation and energy storage. In terms of specific markets that are experiencing this convergence, Pike Research forecasts a significant increase in sales of renewable or alternative energy solutions into the off-grid mobile base station market. In a 1Q 2013 report titled Off-Grid Power for Mobile Base Stations , Pike Research produced a forecast with two scenarios to model revenue from this single market. Revenue according to the base and optimistic scenarios for off-grid power for mobile base stations is shown in Chart 4.1 below. The reason for the obvious uptick is that with the emergence of all the pieces of the technology puzzle, combinations of renewable energy, batteries, and fuel cells are available on the market at an economic price point that allows for a less than 5-year payback in some high-need countries.
Chart 4.1 Off-Grid Base Station Power Revenue by Forecast Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2020
$25,000
Base Scenario
$20,000
Optimistic Scenario
($ Millions)
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Section 5
SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL IS BECOMING THE NEW BRIC
The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) is a consortium of 12 utilities operating across 12 neighboring countries in Africa (Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Those 12 countries constitute a current capacity of 54 GW and a population of 189 million people. The aim of SAPP is to create a common market for electricity with all utilities acting without taking advantage of one another. Table 5.1 shows the regions interdependence with Eskom, the state-owned utility monolith in South Africa.
Table 5.1 Southern African Power Pool, Utilities and Fuel Production: 2010 Baseload/ Hydro 498 760 286 2,000 72 240 63 2,442 561 750 Combined Cycle Gas Turbine 160 1 485 -
Utility BPC EDM ENE Eskom Eskom LEC NamPower SEC SNEL Tanesco ZESA
Coal 132 267 37,831 132 9 1,295
Nuclear 1,930 -
Distillate 70 51 2,409 21 78 -
Total 202 549 1,187 287 44,170 72 393 72 2,442 1,124 2,045
Table 5.2 provides a set of base statistics on the region, showing that although many of the countries actually have fairly high penetrations of renewable energy into their energy landscape, there is a real problem with rural electrification. The SAPP region overall aims to increase its average electricity access rate to 31.5% and do so in a way that is sustainable, creates high-value local jobs, and increases the beneficiation of local resources.
Table 5.2 Background Data, Southern African Power Pool: 2008 and 2009 Population Electricity Renewables Country (Millions) Capacity (MW) Installed (MW) Angola 19 1,155 498 Botswana 2 292 Democratic Republic of 3.8 148 119 the Congo Lesotho 2.1 76 76 Malawi 14.9 315 290 Mozambique 23.4 2,428 2,179 Namibia 2.2 264 249 South Africa 50 44,100 675 Swaziland 1.2 130 120 Tanzania 45 1,006 579 Zambia 12.9 1,680 1,672 Zimbabwe 12.6 2,099 754 Total 189 53,693 7,211
Electricity Access Rate (%) 30% 45% 37% 16% 9% 12% 34% 75% 45% 14% 19% 42%
(Source: International Renewable Energy Agency)
Table 5.3 outlines the specific known targets for new renewable energy additions and rural electrification by country.
Table 5.3 Country Angola Botswana Democratic Republic of the Congo Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Renewable Energy Policy Targets in Southern African Power Pool: 2012 Renewable Energy Targets Not known Not known Not known 35% rural electrification to come from renewables by 2020 7% of primary energy from renewables by 2020 6,000 MW of wind, solar, and hydro capacity (2,000 MW each) Installation of 82,000 solar PV systems, 1,000 biodigesters, 3,000 wind turbine pumping systems, 5,000 renewable energy-based productive systems, and 100,000 solar heater in rural areas Not known
10
Country
Renewable Energy Targets 10,000 GWh of renewables produced by 2013 3,100 MW of renewable capacity by 2013, including 500 MW of wind and 50 MW of concentrating solar power 4% of electricity generation from renewables by 2013 13% of electricity generation from renewables by 2020 2 bid windows were opened in 2012, with another due in 2013 20% of all public buildings installed with solar water heaters by 2014 Develop solar water heater standards by 2012 Establish scal incentives to promote renewable energy by 2013 Establish a demonstration center for renewable energy technologies by 2015 Not known Not known 10% share of biofuels by 2015
(Source: International Renewable Energy Agency)
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe
In 2013, Pike Research expects to see cleantech investment in SAPP reach roughly $10 billion, with the split between internal and foreign investment heavily weighted toward foreign investment. To put this in context, the total cleantech investment in the entire Middle East and Africa region between 2004 and 2011 was $11.8 billion ($2.4 billion in 2011). Pike Research also forecasts that global attention on southern Africa will increase in 2013 due to the projected finds of natural gas and the potential to exploit coal bed methane. As a result of these fuel sources, the regions carbon footprint in the short term could dip. The new fuel sources will likely be substituted for new coal-fired plant baseload capacity while more renewable energy and alternative energy capacity are introduced. The number of large renewable energy projects in the pipeline, such as the highly ambitious Grand Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a capacity of 39 GW), is expected to increase. Meanwhile, the push for upgraded transmission line rights across the SAPP region and increased electrification will become stronger and stronger. Thus, 2013 should be the year that SAPP starts to take a place on the world stage in terms of the smart energy market.
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Section 6
ROLE OF UTILITIES IS CHANGING
Traditionally, electric utilities control two types of assets: power generation and grid control. Electricity production from coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, and other sources fall into the power generation category. Grid control is composed of transmission and distribution lines, transformers, voltage regulators, substations, and other associated equipment. Electric utilities tend to create natural monopolies because of economies of scale. However, these monopolies are eroding, and new technologies and business models are poised to take advantage. When the emergence of independent power producers (IPPs), energy service companies (ESCOs), and cooperative energy companies is combined with the growth in feed-in-tariffs for individuals, utilities are (in some cases) transformed from being the central producer, distributor, and controller to being the purchaser and aggregator of power. However, the electricity sector is currently at a junction where utilities will have to develop a strategy for ensuring stability of the grid, continued revenue, and the continued ability to serve their customer base. Microgrids, for example, present an interesting situation for centralized utilities. On the one hand, they are dismantling the monopoly on which utilities have thrived for more than a half century. On the other hand, microgrids present a brand new type of flexibility to the central grid. Since microgrids can island to reduce load, they can be treated as demand response (DR) resources in times of grid stress. Furthermore, because they have their own generation, they can divert some of their internal distributed energy resources (DER) to the central grid. Note also that the responses of microgrids to central grid conditions are not solely based on need; they can be economically induced. For instance, if a microgrid can shed non-essential load at a time of high central grid energy cost, it can profit from the disparity between its cost of operation and the central grids electricity price. Because of this flexibility, microgrids can take advantage of deregulated markets and may be more profitable than the larger grid in which they are embedded. It is likely that electric utilities in North America and Europe will have much to learn from the utilities that mature in the developing world. In regions currently lacking a central grid, utilities will come to represent flexible and robust machines, instead of the slow-moving giants of the developed world. Ultimately, the system that grants individuals and companies the most stable and least expensive source of electricity will lead the market. This model will likely come from a fresh perspective on how to generate and distribute the electricity that is currently evolving in the developing world.
12
Section 7
ACRONYM AND ABBREVIATION LIST
Brazil, Russia, India, and China .............................................................................................................. BRIC Demand Response .................................................................................................................................... DR Distributed Energy Resources ................................................................................................................. DER Distributed Generation .............................................................................................................................. DG Energy Service Company ...................................................................................................................... ESCO Gigawatt .................................................................................................................................................. GW Gigawatt-Hour ........................................................................................................................................ GWh Independent Power Producer ..................................................................................................................... IPP Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ...................................................................................... IEEE Megawatt ................................................................................................................................................. MW Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................................................. PV Research and Development ..................................................................................................................... R&D Residential Combined Heat and Power ............................................................................................... resCHP Southern African Power Pool ................................................................................................................. SAPP Technology Strategy Board ...................................................................................................................... TSB Telecom Regulatory Authority of India ..................................................................................................... TRAI United Kingdom ...................................................................................................................................... U.K. United States .......................................................................................................................................... U.S.
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Section 8
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Energy Is Becoming Increasingly Democratized ............................................................................................... 3 Section 3 ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 Role of Government Innovation Funds Is Changing ......................................................................................... 5 Section 4 ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 Technologies Are Converging ........................................................................................................................... 7 Section 5 ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 Southern African Power Pool Is Becoming the New BRIC ................................................................................ 9 Section 6 .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 Role of Utilities Is Changing ............................................................................................................................ 12 Section 7 .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Acronym and Abbreviation List ....................................................................................................................... 13 Section 8 .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Section 9 .......................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table of Charts and Figures ............................................................................................................................. 15 Section 10 ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 Scope of Study ................................................................................................................................................. 16 Sources and Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 16 Notes ................................................................................................................................................................ 17
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Section 9
TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES
Chart 1.1 Chart 2.1 Chart 4.1 Revenue of Seven High-Growth Areas in the Smart Energy Sector, World Markets: 2012-2017 ........ 1 resCHP from Single and Multi-Family Dwellings, World Markets: 2010-2022 .................................... 4 Off-Grid Base Station Power Revenue by Forecast Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2020 ................. 8
Figure 2.1 Figure 3.1 Figure 4.1
Changing Democratization of Information from the Internet ............................................................. 3 Innovation Process Is Changing .................................................................................................... 5 All the Pieces Coming Together ..................................................................................................... 7
Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3
Southern African Power Pool, Utilities and Fuel Production: 2010 ................................................... 9 Background Data, Southern African Power Pool: 2008 and 2009 .................................................... 10 Renewable Energy Policy Targets in Southern African Power Pool: 2012 ....................................... 10
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Section 10
SCOPE OF STUDY
Pike Research has prepared this white paper to provide current and interested stakeholders at all levels of the smart energy sector, including developers, analysts, investors, and policy makers, with an overview of five key metatrends that will affect the sector during 2013. Its major objective is to provide an understanding of some of the significant market developments and movements that are likely to happen in the smart energy sector over the course of 2013. Note that the report does not aim to offer an exhaustive assessment of the trends and their impacts, as Pike Research will provide comprehensive analyses in more in-depth reports during 2013.
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Pike Researchs industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Researchs analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Researchs analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analysts industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Researchs reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research, a part of the Navigant Consulting, Inc. Energy Practice, is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Pike Research is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
16
NOTES
CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2013 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
17
Published 1Q 2013
2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1.303.997.7609 http://www.navigant.com/pikeresearch
This publication is provided by Pike Research, a part of the Navigant Consulting, Inc. (Navigant) Energy Practice and has been provided for informational purposes only. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Navigant and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed, or used without the express written permission of Navigant. Navigant makes no claim to any government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication), and makes no express or implied warranty, guaranty, or representation concerning the information contained in this publication, its merchantability, or its fitness for a particular purpose of function. Any reference to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Navigant. Navigant does not assume, and hereby disclaims, any liability that may result from any reliance on or use of any information contained in this publication, or for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in this publication. This publication is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser. If you do not have a license from Navigant covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Navigant to obtain a license to this publication.
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WHITE PAPER

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

$2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

resCHP from Single and Multi-Family Dwellings, World Markets: 2010-2022

(Source: Pike Research)

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Government Innovation Funds

(Source: Pike Research)

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

New Business Models

Market Need / Market Pain

(Source: Pike Research)

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

$2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Source: Pike Research)

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Coal 132 267 37,831 132 9 1,295

(Source: Pike Research)

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

(Source: International Renewable Energy Agency)

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Figure 2.1 Figure 3.1 Figure 4.1

Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

Smart Energy: Five Metatrends to Watch in 2013 and Beyond

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