1.

Listed below is the net sales in $ million for home Depot, Inc. and its subsidiaries from
1997 to 2006.
Table 1: Net sales of different years

Year

Net Sales ($)

Year

Net Sales ($)

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001

50,600
67,300
80,800
98,100
124,400

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

156,700
201,400
227,300
256,300
280,900

Note: Add last three digits of your ID with Net Sales

i)
ii)

Determine the least square equation. On the basis of this information, what are the
estimated sales for 2010?
Plot Net Sales and Trend Line

Answer:
By using Excel we have,

Net Sales($)+ID(2009-3-10-095) y=a+bt

year
Net Sales($)
time
1997
50600
1
50695
34343
1998
67300
2
67395
61293
1999
88800
3
88895
88143
2000
98100
4
98195 114993
2001
124400
5
124495 141843
2002
156700
6
156765 168693
2003
201400
7
201495 195543
2004
227300
8
227395 222393
2005
256300
9
256395 249243
2006
280900
10
280995 276093

i.
The least square equation for Net sales ($) is, Y= a+bt = 7593+26850(t)
The value 7593 is the estimated value of sales in the year 0 or base year (1996).
The value 26850 tells us that sales increased at a rate of 26851 per year.
Thus on the basis of past sales the estimated or expected or projected sales for 2010 will be
Y= a+bt = 7530+26851*14
= 383493.0($) million

ii.

Plot of
Net sales and trend line
300000

Net Sales($)

250000

y = 26851x + 7530

200000
150000

Series1

100000

ID(030) + Net Sales

50000
0
0

10

15

Year

2.

It appears that the imports of carbon black have been increasing by about 10 percent
annually.
Table 2: Amount of Carbon Block imported in different years

Year

Imports of
Carbon
Block
(thousands of
tons)

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

124
175
306
524
714
1052

1996

1638

Year

Imports of
Carbon Block
(thousands of
tons)

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

2463
3358
4181
5388
8027
10587
13537

Note: Add last three digits of your ID with imports of Carbon Block

i)
ii)
iii)

Determine the logarithmic trend.

Find the annual rate of increase.
Estimate imports for the year 2006.

Answer:
By using Excel we have,

year

Imports of Carbon Import +ID(095) Time, t

Blocks
(thousands of tons)
124
219
175
270
306
401
524
619
714
809
1052
1147
1638
1733
2463
2558
3358
3453
4181
4276
5388
5483
8027
8122
10587
10682
13537
13632

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
i)

log y

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

The logarithmic trend equation is, Y = 0.1514ln(t) + 2.09

Imports of Carbon Blocks

4.5
4

y = 0.1514ln(x) + 2.09

3.5
3
2.5

Series1

log Y

1.5
1
0.5
0
0

Year

10

15

2.34
2.43
2.60
2.79
2.91
3.06
3.21
3.39
3.53
3.62
3.73
3.91
4.03
4.13

ii) Here, intercept, a = 2.09 and slope, b= 0.1514

So the antilog of 0.1514 is 1.4171
Subtracting 1 gives 0.4171
So we may conclude that imports of carbon block increased at a rate of 41.71 percent annually
during the period (1990-2003).The annual rate of increase is 41.71% i.e.; the import of the next
year will 41.71% more than the previous year.
iii) The estimated sales for the year 2006 will be Y0.1514 (t) + 2.09
=0.1514(17) + 2.09
= 4.6638
The antilog of 4.6638 is 46110.52
Thus the estimated sales for the year 2006 will be about 46110.52 thousands of tons.

3.

The quarterly production of pine lumber, in millions of board feet, by Northwest lumber
since 1998 is :
Table 3: Productions in different quarters of several years

Year Quarter Production Year Production Sales Year Quarter Production

1998

1999

2000

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

90
85
56
102
115
89
61
110
165
110
98
248

2001

2002

2003

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

201
142
110
274
251
165
125
305
241
158
132
299

2004

2005

2006

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

265
185
142
333
282
175
157
350
290
201
187
400

Note: Add last three digits of your ID with number of Productions

i)
ii)
iii)

Develop a seasonal index for each quarter and interpret.

Project the production for 2007 and also find the base year production.
Plot the original data and Deseasonalize data and interpret.

First enter the Real estate data (text book data set 1) into SPSS and then select a
sample of size, n =50. and answer the exercises.
4.
i) Select an appropriate class interval and organize the Selling price into a frequency
distribution.
ii) Compute the Mean, Median, Mode, Standard Deviation, Variance, Quartiles, 9th Decile,
10th Percentile and Range of Selling price from the raw data of your sample.
iii) Develop a histogram (Using question a) for the variable Class interval.
iv) Develop a Pie chart and a Bar diagram for the variable Township.
v) Develop a Box plot for the variable Distance. What information can you give from the
plot?
Note: Comment on all your findings, charts and diagrams.

For the variable Selling price

5.
i) Determine the coefficient of skewness. Is the distribution positively or negatively
skewed?
ii) Develop a Box plot. Are there any outliers?

Answer:
i) Computations needed for specific seasonal indexes
year
quarter Production
Production+
ID(095)

1998 winter

90

185

spring

85

180

summer

56

four
quarter
total

four
quarter
moving
average

713

178.25

151
738

fall

102
115
89
61

186.125 1.128274009

110

187.75 0.980026631

165

195

110

203.875 1.005518087

98

211.125 1.231497928

248

233 0.879828326

201

254.75 0.757605496

142

263.25

110

268.75 1.101395349

274

273.5

251

283 0.724381625

165

289.25
292.125 1.263157895

369
295

296.875 1.165473684

346
1195

spring

0.86654479

276.75

205

1180
2002 winter

270.25

237

1157
fall

1.30294397

267.25

296

1107
summer

259.25

343

1081
spring

250.25

193

1069
2001 winter

215.75

205

1037
fall

206.5

260

1001
summer

0.8

201.25

205

863
spring

188.75

156

826
2000 winter

186.75

184

805
fall

0.83252929

185.5

210

755
summer

181.375

185 1.064864865

747
spring

Specific
seasonal

184.5

197
742

1999 winter

centered
moving
average

298.75
302.625 0.859149112

260
1226

306.5

summer

125

fall

305

305.25 0.720720721

220
1216

303.125 1.319587629

400
1209

2003 winter

241

spring

158

summer

132

fall

299

303.125 1.108453608
303.25 0.834295136
305.5

summer

142

fall

333

311.875 1.263326653
316.5 1.137440758
322 0.869565217

summer

157

fall

350

333.875 0.808685885
1344

336
337 0.747774481

252
1352

338
341.25 1.304029304

445
1378

201

summer

187

282

fall

400

495

1.29992407

331.75

270

spring

329.25

329.875 1.142857143
1327

290

0.72173582

328

377

2006 winter

328.375
330.5

428
1312

175

326.25

237
1322

spring

317.75

280
1305

282

315.25

360
1271

2005 winter

0.74304419

308.5

394
1261

185

302.5

227
1234

spring

304

253
1210

265

302.25

336
1216

2004 winter

304

344.5
348.25 1.105527638

385
1408

352
358.25

296
1458

364.5

0.82623866

Seasonal index for quarter (winter, spring, summer& fall)

Year

Quarter
Winter

1998

Spring

Summer

Fall

0.83252929

1.064865

1999 1.128274009 0.980026631

0.8
2000 1.231497928 0.879828326 0.757605496
2001 1.101395349 0.86654479 0.724381625

1.005518

2002 1.165473684 0.859149112 0.859149112

2003 1.108453608 0.834295136 0.74304419
2004 1.137440758 0.869565217 0.72173582
2005 1.142857143 0.808685885 0.808685885
2006 1.105527638 0.82623866
Total
8.01539248 6.924333758 6.247131419
Mean
1.00192406 0.86554172 0.780891427
Adjustment
1.033903665 0.893168247 0.805816071
Index
103
89
81

1.302944
1.263158
1.319588
1.263327
1.299924
1.304029
9.823352
1.227919
3.976276266
4
1.267112
127 400

Interpretation
So the index for winter quarter is 103 i.e.; production for the winter quarter is 3 percent
increased.
So the index for spring quarter is 89 i.e.; production for the spring quarter is 11 percent
decreased.
So the index for summer quarter is 81 i.e.; production for the summer quarter is 19 percent
decreased.
So the index for fall quarter is 127 i.e.; production for the fall quarter is 34.4percent increased.

ii) Using Deseasonallized data to forecast

quarter

production

Production+ID(095)

1998 winter
spring
summer
fall
1999 winter
spring
summer
fall
2000 winter
spring
summer
fall
2001 winter
spring
summer
fall
2002 winter
spring
summer
fall
2003 winter
spring
summer
fall
2004 winter
spring
summer
fall
2005 winter
spring
summer
fall
2006 winter
spring
summer

90
85
56
102
115
89
61
110
165
110
98
248
201
142
110
274
251
165
125
305
241
158
132
299
265
185
142
333
282
175
157
350
290
201
187

185
180
151
197
210
184
156
205
260
205
193
343
296
237
205
369
346
260
220
400
336
253
227
394
360
280
237
428
377
270
252
445
385
296
282

year

Seasonal
Index

1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596
1.343961557
1.229416463
0.806365384
0.620256596

Time

Disseasonalized

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

73.20546189
105.411271
90.28521474
75.895028
93.54031241
110.3718014
98.34639463
81.84757921
134.2100135
136.414586
157.9991258
184.5290877
163.4921982
176.0988292
177.3459575
203.8748791
204.1618993
204.621879
201.5294972
226.9410151
196.0279591
195.9409508
212.815149
222.4766017
215.5494156
229.424531
228.9375088
247.7749443
229.3771139
217.023205
253.1210485
260.4241157
235.8842661
249.2666526
301.4881278

fall

400

495

1.343961557

36

297.6275608

Disseasonalized production
350
y = 5.6804x + 80.838

production

300
250
200

Series1

150
Disseasonalized
production

100
50
0
0

10

20

30

40

year

Year

2007

Quarter

time

Forecast/Projected
production

winter

37

290.99

spring

38

296.67

summer

39

302.35

fall

40

308.03

And also the base year production is 80.445

iii) Plot of original and deseasonalized Production

Plot of original & deseasonalized

production
450
400

production

350
300
250
200

Series1

150

Series2

100
50
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
year

Interpretation
From the plot we can see that by removing the seasonal factors allow us to focus on the long
term trend and help us to forecast.