MESOSCALE MODELING OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES IN INDIA

D. V. BHASKAR RAO SOMESHWAR DAS P. SANJEEVA RAO

Science and Engineering Research Council DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Ministry of Science & Technology Government of India 2008
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DISCLAIMER: The contents published in this report are based on the information provided by the contributors. The editors and the Department of Science and Technology are not responsible for the opinions expressed and conclusions drawn. The geographical boundaries shown in this report do not necessarily correspond to the political boundaries.

CITATION: Bhaskar Rao, D.V., Someshwar Das and P. Sanjeeva Rao (2008): Mesoscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes in India, Published by Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, pp 113.

Printed by the Director, Andhra University Press & Publications Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India

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GOVERNMENT

Dr. T. RAMASAMI

SECRETARY

MINISTRY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Technology Bhavan, New Mehrauli Road, New Delhi-110 016

Foreword
Mesoscale high impact weather events like tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, western disturbances, fog, etc occur every year over different parts of the country in all seasonswith disastrous consequences.Till last decade forecasting of such high impact mesoscalehydro-climatic disastrous events was based on empirical methods. Since 1995, mesoscale dynamical models have been adopted in India, some in research mode and others for operational weather prediction. Considerable efforts were put by the Department of Science and Technology in imparting training to young scientists and creating infrastructure facilities at various universities in adopting these dynamical models under Indian conditions. Now, several research groups in India use mesoscalemodels with multiple nesting techniques applying variable horizontal resolutions to resolve smaller scale motions such that the interactions between the synoptic scale and mesoscale are accounted for. The present document is an outcome of the deliberations at the 'National Workshop on Mesoscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes" held at Andhra University, Visakhapatnam during January 2007. It describes, in brief, the status of dynamical modeling of the mesoscale atmospheric processes in India and also provides the scientific issues to undertake future research towards improving high impact weather prediction capabilities. I congratulate Prof DV Bhaskara Rao and his associates for their efforts in bringing this publication which serves as a reference for future research endeavors by the Ministry of Earth Sciences and the Department of Science and Technology.

Dated: 4th July 2008

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011-26510068,011-26511439 .

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PREFACE
The geographical region of India experiences different types of weather phenomena, predominantly of tropical nature and others with subtropical characteristics. Scientific understanding towards accurate prediction of these weather systems is very important due to their socio-economic impact. Rapid changes in the public life with industrialization, economic growth, rapid transport facilities etc, necessitated the need for mesoscale weather prediction with few kilometers of spatial scale and few hours of time scale. The mesoscale weather phenomena which affect the Indian subcontinent are tropical cyclones, severe local storms, western disturbances, mid-tropospheric cyclones, off shore vortices and fog. The super cyclone which crossed the Orissa coast on 29 October 1999 was noted to be the most intense tropical cyclone on record and caused an estimated loss of 12,500 crores in Indian Rupees. Due to their annual occurrence and the devastating nature, tropical cyclones have been the focus of continued research for meteorologists in India and elsewhere due to their global nature. Severe weather storms which include thunderstorm, hail storm, mesoscale convective systems and squall lines occur over most parts of the country. These severe storms are known to cause destruction due to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, sometimes producing flash floods inundating the low lying regions. During the last few years the occurrence of heavy precipitation events (often exceeding 25 cm/day), were experienced over many urban locations causing disruption of public life and resulting in economic loss. An example is the unprecedented rainfall that occurred over Mumbai city on 26 July 2005 with a rainfall amount of 94 cm within a span of few hours causing enormous economic losses estimated at 5000 crores in Indian rupees. Heavy rainfall events were also observed in Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Visakhapatnam during 2005. Fog is another weather hazard known to cause decrease of visibility and so effect train and aircraft services. The number of the occurrences and the duration of fog have shown increase during the last few years, attributed to increase of air pollution, and thus increased vulnerability. Similarly avalanches occur in the mountain region of northern states due to occurrence of heavy snowfall associated with transient mesoscale weather systems. Understanding and prediction of the above mentioned mesoscale weather phenomena are important for effective planning and implementation of mitigation measures. Development of atmospheric models suitable for mesoscale weather prediction has taken place during the last decade and a few mesoscale models are presently available. The most commonly used mesoscale models by the research groups in India are National Centre for Atmospheric Research MM5 and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models due to their availability and versatility for the study of the different mesoscale weather phenomena. The Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India recognized the need for better understanding of the atmospheric processes associated with the mesoscale weather phenomena over the Indian region and initiated action to promote research on the development and validation of mesoscale models. This is being done through funding research projects, organizing training programmes and special national workshops. During the last five years, DST supported various programmes such as Advanced

training school on tropical cyclones, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam during 29 November-24 December, 2004; Brain storming session on Orissa Super Cyclone, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi during 21-22 March, 2005; SERC School on Aviation Meteorology with special reference to Thunderstorm and its Modeling, AFAC, Coimbatore during 9-28 May 2005; National Workshop on Dynamics and Simulation of Extreme Rainfall with special reference to Mumbai Heavy rainfall events, CMMACS, Bangalore during 15-17 March 2006; Advanced Training Program and Tutorial on WRF Modelling System, IIT Delhi, New Delhi during 18 February-1 March 2006; Training programme on HWRF, IIT Delhi, New Delhi during January 2007. DST has also supported to bring out two special issues of the Mausam journal, one on Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) (Mausam, Vol.56,1, January 2005) and another on Orissa Super Cyclone of 1999 (Mausam, vol.57,1, January 2006). DST has supported a National Workshop on Mesoscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes at Andhra University, Visakhapatnam during 29-31 January 2007 to have an assessment of the present status of research on mesoscale modeling of various atmospheric processes. This documentation is a sequel to the workshop taken up by Prof. D.V. Bhaskar Rao, Andhra University and Dr. Someshwar Das, NCMRWF. Almost all the national organisations and academic institutions engaged in atmospheric modeling research have provided their inputs for preparation of this status document. The presentation of this report is divided into six sections to provide the background of the atmospheric processes affecting the Indian regions; description of the systems at mesoscale overview of mesoscale models, mesoscale data assimilation, national status and recommendations to improve the understanding toward prediction of mesoscale atmospheric processes affecting the Indian region.

CONTENTS
Page 1. 2. Introduction Mesoscale Atmospheric Systems affecting Indian Region 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3. Tropical cyclones Thunderstorms Western Disturbances Cold waves Fog Avalanches Mid-tropospheric cyclones Off-shore vortices 3 7 9 14 17 18 20 20 21 21 23 25 31 33 35 42 44 46 49 50 52

Mesoscale Atmospheric Models and their Applications 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 Overview of Mesoscale Models Severe Weather Forecasting Cyclone Track and Intensity Prediction Thunderstorms and Cloudbursts Fog Forecasting Mountain Weather Forecasting Seasonal Forecasting/ Downscaling Air pollution/ Nuclear Emergency Response system Cloud-resolving Scale Simulations Cloud Seeding Experiments

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4.

Mesoscale Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Data Assimilation 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Observations Nudging Variational Assimilation Assimilation of Satellite Observations Assimilation of Doppler Radar Observations

55 57 59 60 62 67 70 72 73 75 79 82 82 83 85 89 89 94 95 103 109 113

5.

National Status on Mesoscale Atmospheric Process Modelling 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 India Meteorological Department National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation Space Physical Laboratory Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment Indian Air Force Indian institute of Technology-Delhi Indian institute of Technology-Kharagpur Andhra University Jadavpur University

6.

Recommendations References Acronyms List of Contributors and Institutions

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

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Introduction
Mesoscale atmospheric systems refer to those which are smaller than synoptic scale (~1000 km) and larger than the cumulus scale (~ 1 km). They are categorised into meso- (200-2000 km), meso- (20-200 km) and meso- (2-20 km) as shown in Table-1.1 following Fujita (1986). Mesoscale models are designed for the simulation and prediction of mesoscale weather systems. Such models remain important for an operational numerical weather prediction centre because they can be run at very high resolution with a wide variety of options for the parameterization of physical processes and to be run with nested grid for optimized computational resources. The global models do not have such privileges as they are very expensive to run at high resolutions. Moreover, at finer resolution the mesoscale models are also capable of assimilating large amount of high resolution observations available from present day satellites and Doppler radars. Table -1.1: Classification of Mesoscale weather systems (Fujita, 1986) Nomenclature Spatial Mesoscale-alpha Mesoscale-beta 200 - 2000 km 20 - 200 km Dimensions Time 6 hrs - 2 days 30 mins - 6 hrs Jet stream, tropical cyclones, weak anticyclones Local wind fields, mountain winds, land/sea breeze, mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs), large thunderstorms Most thunderstorms, large cumulus, extremely large tornadoes Typical Feature

Mesoscale-gamma

2 - 20 km

3 - 30 mins

The mesoscale models can be configured to run from global to cloud resolving scale for simulation of transient thunderstorms and cloud clusters. They can also be used for a wide variety of applications such as cloud-radiation interaction, cloud-cloud interaction, transport of heat, moisture & momentum, pollution (Srinivas et al. 2006), precipitation, interaction with surface fluxes, topographic effects (Das et al. 2003a, Das 2005) and, troposphere-stratosphere interaction. Since the early 1990s several important changes took place in mesoscale modeling. First was the introduction of nonhydrostatic dynamics into mesoscale models (e.g., Dudhia 1993). The nonhydrostatic mesoscale models can be run at cloud resolving resolutions (~1 km)

without the restrictions of the hydrostatic assumption. This facilitates the application of these models to a wide range of scientific problems. For example, mesoscale models can be used to explicitly simulate convection and its interaction with the large scale weather systems in a realistic way (Kuo and Wang 1996). However, the use of high-resolution mesoscale models for real-time Numerical Weather Prediction requires a tremendous amount of computational resources. For example, to increase the grid model resolution (both horizontally and vertically) by a factor of two would require an increase in computational resources by a factor of 16 (Kuo, 2003). In India, mesoscale models are being used by many academic and operational organizations for different applications ranging from research to real-time weather forecasting. For example, at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast mesoscale models such as MM5, ETA, WRF and RSM are run on realtime basis for forecasting mesoscale weather systems (Das, 2002a, 2002b; Rajagopal and Iyengar, 2002, 2005; Mohandas and Rajagopal, 2005). Similarly, the mesoscale models are run at different institutions like IMD (which runs LAM and MM5; Hatwar et al., 2005; Roy Bhowmik et al., 2006a; Rama Rao et al., 2005), IIT-Delhi (which runs MM5 and WRF; Mohanty et al., 2004; Mandal et al., 2003, 2006; Routray et al., 2006), Andhra University (which runs MM5 and an axi-symmetric cyclone model; Bhaskar Rao et al., 2004; Bhaskar Rao and Prasad, 2005, 2006), IITM-Pune (which runs MM5, ARPS and RAMS; Mukhopadhyay et al., 2005; Vaidya, 2007), C-MMACS (which runs a variable resolution LMD-GCM; Goswami and Patra, 2004), IAF (which runs MM5 and WRF; Arora and Nandi, 2006), IGCAR (which runs MM5; Srinivas et al., 2006), SASE (which runs MM5; Srinivasan et al., 2005), SPL (which runs MM5, ARPS and HRM; Radhika et al., 2006, 2007), IIT-Kharagpur (which runs MM5; Sandeep et al., 2006; Xavier et al., 2006), Jadavapur University (which runs MM5) and Cochin University (which runs MM5). Besides running the model, some of the institutions (NCMRWF and C-MMACS) also run mesoscale data assimilation based on 3DVAR/ 4DVAR. Realizing the importance of extreme weather events and their socio-economic impact, the Government India (through DST) and the Indian Space Research Organization [ISRO]) has launched nationally coordinated major field programs named STORM (Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling) and PRWONAM (Prediction of Regional Weather using Observational Meso-Network and Atmospheric Modelling) to boost the research on mesoscale modeling and data assimilation. The STORM is a comprehensive observational and modeling effort to improve the understanding and prediction of the severe thunderstorms (STORM, 2005). Pilot field experiments were conducted during April-May of 2006 and 2007 with a plan for the main experiments during the years 2009 and 2010. In 2007, the Pilot experiment was extended to cover the north-eastern India as the severe thunderstorms affect this region also during April-May. Similarly, the PRWONAM, has been taken up as a multi-institutional project to advance the knowledge of mesoscale to regional scale influences on the initiation, evolution and sustenance of regional/ local weather systems and to understand how the predictive skill is improved by denser observational network, data assimilation and use of suitable models and improved model physics. A mesoscale field experiment was conducted during

2006-2007 over southern peninsular Indian region covering SHAR-Kalpakkam-Bangalore areas and Indian Ocean on either sides to make measurements with high-density network of stations. In this document, we shall present in detail the status of the mesoscale models being used in India. Section 2 presents discussion of the mesoscale atmospheric systems affecting the Indian region. In section 3, we present a detailed discussion on the different applications of the mesoscale models including real-time weather forecasting, cyclone track prediction, mountain weather forecasting, seasonal prediction, air pollution studies and cloud resolving simulations. Section 4 presents a discussion on mesoscale atmospheric data assimilation. The national versus international status is discussed in section 5 and finally, recommendations are given in section 6.

CHAPTER 2 MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE INDIAN REGION

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Introduction
The atmospheric systems that affect the Indian region are known to be tropical cyclones, severe local storms, western disturbances, mid-tropospheric cyclones, off-shore vortices and fog. Each of these systems has different spatial and time scale and also region of occurrence. All these systems except fog bring rain and/ or snow, many times useful for water resources but some of them are hazardous. Understanding and prediction of these systems is very important for planners and administrators as well for general public. A description of the characteristics of the different systems is provided in the following sections.

2.1 Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones are known to be the most devastating of all natural disasters over the world. Tropical cyclones form over warm ocean regions and intensify under favorable atmospheric conditions and decay after landfall. The annual frequency of tropical cyclones over the north Indian ocean is 6, which is only about 6% of the global number, but they are known to cause more damage and destruction than other parts of the world. India has a long coastline of length nearly 8000 km and owing to major developmental activities. Location of industries and consequent density of population along the coastal region, the devastation of the cyclones is more over India. The devastation is mainly due to high winds, torrential rain and associated storm surge. While the effects of high winds and storm surges are concentrated with in a few kilometers, the heavy rainfall associated with a tropical cyclone, affects hundreds of kilometers area from the coast. The shallow waters of the Bay of Bengal, the low flat coastal terrain and the funneling shape of the coastline lead to devastating losses of life and property due to the generation of storm surge. It is also observed that 90% of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) cyclonic systems form over Bay of Bengal (BOB) where as 10% form over Arabian Sea. Tropical cyclone genesis is highly seasonal in the NIO with the primary maximum in the post-monsoon season i.e. during the months of October, November and December and the secondary maximum during premonsoon months of April and May. 2.1.1 Mechanics of tropical cyclones Structurally, a tropical cyclone is a large, rotating system of clouds, wind and thunderstorms. The primary source of energy is the release of the heat of condensation from water vapor condensing at high altitudes, the heat ultimately derived from the sun. Therefore, a tropical cyclone can be thought of as a giant vertical heat engine supported by mechanics driven by physical forces such as the rotation and gravity of the earth. This condensation leads to higher wind speeds, as a tiny fraction of the released energy is converted
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into mechanical energy; the faster winds and lower pressure associated with them in turn cause increased surface evaporation and thus even more condensation. Much of the released energy drives updrafts that increase the height of the storm clouds, speeding up condensation. This gives rise to factors that provide the system with enough energy to be self-sufficient and cause a positive feedback loop where it can draw more energy as long as the source of heat, warm water, remains. Factors such as a continued lack of equilibrium in air mass distribution would also give supporting energy to the cyclone. The rotation of the earth causes the system to spin, an effect known as the Coriolis effect, giving it a cyclonic characteristic and affecting the trajectory of the storm. The factors to form a tropical cyclone include a pre-existing atmospheric disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds aloft. If the right conditions persist and allow it to create a feedback loop by maximizing the energy intake possible, for example, such as high winds to increase the rate of evaporation, they can combine to produce the violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains, and floods associated with this phenomenon. The passage of a tropical cyclone over the ocean can cause the upper ocean to cool substantially, which can influence subsequent cyclone development. Tropical cyclones cool the ocean by acting like heat engines that transfer heat from the ocean surface to the atmosphere through evaporation. Cooling is also caused by upwelling of cold water from below. Additional cooling may come from cold water from raindrops that remain on the ocean surface for a time. Cloud cover may also play a role in cooling the ocean by shielding the ocean surface from direct sunlight before and slightly after the storm passage. All these effects can combine to produce a dramatic drop in sea surface temperature over a large area in just a few days. While the most obvious motion of clouds is toward the center, tropical cyclones also develop an upperlevel (high-altitude) outward flow of clouds. These originate from air that has released its moisture and is expelled at high altitude through the chimney of the storm engine. This outflow produces high, thin cirrus clouds that spiral away from the center. The high cirrus clouds may be the first signs of an approaching tropical cyclone. 2.1.2 Formation The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. Six general factors are necessary to make tropical cyclone formation possible, although tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting these conditions: 1. Water temperatures of at least 26.5 C (80F) down to a depth of at least 50 m (150 feet). Waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be provide latent heat energy to the atmosphere thus increasing its instability and favouring sustained convection and thunderstorms. 2. Rapid cooling with height. This allows the release of latent heat, which is the source of energy in a tropical cyclone.

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3. High humidity, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere. This helps deep convection and conditions are more favourable for disturbances to develop. 4. Low wind shear. When wind shear is high, the convection in a cyclone or disturbance will be disrupted, blowing the system apart. 5. Distance from the equator. This allows the Coriolis force to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center, causing a circulation. The minimum distance is 500 km (310 miles) or about 5 degrees from the equator. 6. A pre-existing system of disturbed weather. The system must have some sort of circulation as well as a low pressure center. Most tropical cyclones form in a narrow convergence region between the trade winds of the two hemispheres, called Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is also a region of thunderstorm activity. Band of thunderstorm activity called the Intertropical discontinuity, also called the ITCZ. Most of these systems form between 10 and 30 degrees of the equator and 87% form within 20 degrees of it. Because the Coriolis force initiates and maintains tropical cyclone rotation, tropical cyclones rarely form or move within about 5 degrees of the equator, where the Coriolis effect is negligible. 2.1.3 Movement and track Although tropical cyclones are large systems generating enormous energy, their movements over the earths surface are controlled by large-scale windsthe streams in the earths atmosphere. The path of motion is referred to as a tropical cyclones track, depends on the earths rotation. This earths acceleration causes cyclonic systems to turn towards the poles in the absence of strong steering currents (i.e.) in the north, the northern part of the cyclone has winds to the west, and the Coriolis force pulls them slightly north. The southern part is pulled south, but since it is closer to the equator, the Coriolis force is a bit weaker.] Thus, tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, which commonly move west in the beginning, normally turn north (and then usually towards east). 2.1.4 Interaction with high and low pressure systems When a tropical cyclone moves into higher latitude, its general track around a high-pressure area can be deflected significantly by winds moving toward a low-pressure area. Such a track direction change is termed recurve. 2.1.5 Landfall Officially, landfall is when a storms center (the center of the eye, not its edge) reaches land. Naturally, storm conditions are experienced on the coast and inland well before landfall. In fact, for a storm moving

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inland, the landfall area experiences half the storm before the actual landfall. For emergency preparedness, actions should be timed from when a certain wind speed will reach land, not from when landfall will occur. 2.1.6 Dissipation A tropical cyclone can cease to have tropical characteristics in several ways: It moves over land, thus depriving it of the warm water it needs to power itself, and quickly loses strength. Most strong storms lose their strength very rapidly after landfall and become disorganized areas of low pressure within a day or two. There is, however, a chance they could regenerate if they manage to get back over open warm water. If a storm is over mountains for even a short time, it can rapidly lose its structure. However, many storm fatalities occur in mountainous terrain, as the dying storm unleashes torrential rainfall which can lead to deadly floods. It remains in the same area of ocean for too long, drawing heat off of the ocean surface until it becomes too cool to support the storm. Without warm surface water, the storm cannot survive. It can be weak enough to be consumed by another area of low pressure, disrupting it and joining to become a large area of non-cyclonic thunderstorms. (Such systems however, can strengthen the non-tropical system as a whole). 2.1.7 Physical structure A strong tropical cyclone consists of the following components. Surface Low: All tropical cyclones rotate around an area of low atmospheric pressure near the Earths surface. The pressures recorded at the centers of tropical cyclones are among the lowest that occur on Earths surface at sea level. Warm core: Tropical cyclones are characterized and driven by the release of large amounts of latent heat of condensation as moist air is carried upwards and its water vapor condenses. This heat is distributed vertically, around the center of the storm. Thus, at any given altitude the environment inside the cyclone is warmer than its outer surroundings. Central Dense Overcast (CDO): The central dense overcast is the shield of cirrus clouds produced by the eyewall thunderstorms. Typically, these are the highest and coldest clouds in the cyclone. Eye: A strong tropical cyclone will harbor an area of sinking air at the center of circulation. Weather in the eye is normally calm and free of clouds (however, the sea may be extremely violent). The eye is normally circular in shape, and may range in size from 3 km to 320 km (2 miles to 200 miles) in diameter. In weaker cyclones, the CDO covers the circulation center, resulting in no visible eye.

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 Eyewall: A band around the eye of greatest wind speed, where clouds reach highest and precipitation is heaviest. The heaviest wind damage occurs where a hurricanes eyewall passes over land. Rainbands: Bands of showers and thunderstorms that spiral cyclonically toward the storm center. High wind gusts and heavy downpours often occur in individual rainbands, with relatively calm weather between bands. Tornadoes often form in the rainbands of landfalling tropical cyclones. Outflow: The upper levels of a tropical cyclone feature winds headed away from the center of the storm with an anti-cyclonic rotation. Winds at the surface are strongly cyclonic, weaken with height, and eventually reverse themselves. Tropical cyclones owe this unique characteristic to the warm core at the center of the storm. 2.1.8 Storm Surge Storm surges are produced when these tropical cyclones pass over the continental shelf. Winds associated with tropical cyclones are the main driving force for accumulation of water on the shoreline, which in turn, results in a sudden and substantial rise in sea level. This abnormal rise in sea level above the astronomical tide, which reaches a maximum on the coast, normally at the time of landfall of the cyclone, is called storm surge. Storm surges are atmospherically forced oscillations of the water level in a coastal or inland water body, in the period range of a few hours to a few days, depending upon the speed of the cyclone. These come under the classification of long gravity waves, which are often 100 km wide with amplitude at times higher than 5m. The intensity of the cyclone determines the power of the storm surges, the more intense the storm, the stronger the waves. If the occurrence of storm surge coincides with normal astronomical tide the total rise in the water level may be spectacular. Storm surges cause heavy loss of life and property, damage coastal structures, harbours, oil rigs and other residential complexes close to the coast. Most of the worlds greatest human disasters associated with tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to the coastal flooding associated with storm surges. The destruction associated with storm surges rank them as one of the foremost natural disasters and some times even surpassing earthquakes. Coastal flooding associated with storm surges is a serious concern along 7500 km of Indian coastline. About 60 % of all deaths due to storm surges have occurred in the lowlying coastal areas of the countries bordering the Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Arabian Sea. East coast of India is frequently affected by storm surges. Most vulnerable portions of the east coast are Orissa, West Bengal and south Andhra coast. Though the frequency of occurrence of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is more compared with the Arabian Sea, there are several records of severe cyclonic storms in Gujarat and north Maharashtra region. Some of the severe cyclones have also passed over the Gulf of Cambay and the Gulf of Kutch regions. It is possible that the number of causalities could be reduced if the surge can be predicted 24 hours in advance through effective warnings in the threatened area. The prediction should be such that there is distinction between the dangerous and less harmful surges as people cannot be

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evacuated from the exposed areas for every approaching storm. At present, statistical and numerical models are being used for the prediction of storm surges to the coastal regions of Indian subcontinent.

2.2 Thunderstorms
2.2.1 Introduction Thunderstorm may be defined as a violent, short lived atmospheric disturbance associated with deep convective clouds, heavy rain with or without hail, strong gusty winds along with lightning and thunder. Thunderstorms form due to severe heating at the surface when layers of warm moist air rise as strong updraft and the moisture condenses due to adiabatic expansion to produce deep cumulonimbus cloud which eventually precipitate. Each of these updrafts will have associated downdraft due to evaporative cooling from falling precipitation and the downdrafts are observed as strong cool winds in the wake of the storm. Thunderstorm is a mesoscale system with a spatial scale of a few kilometers and time scale of less than an hour to several hours. During the pre-monsoon season of April and May north India gets severe thunderstorms. In this season, Gangetic West Bengal and surrounding areas experience severe thunderstorms (Norwesters) called locally as Kal Baisaki and northwest India gets convective dust-storms locally called as Andhi. Severe thunderstorms cause lot of damage to property and crops and human and animal fatalities due to the strong surface wind squalls, large hail and occasional tornadoes accompanying them. They pose serious hazards to aviation activities. Electrical charges accumulate on cloud particles (water droplets and ice) and lightning discharges occur when the accumulated electric charge becomes sufficiently large. Lightning heats the air it passes through so intensely and quickly that shock waves are produced; and these shock waves are heard as claps and rolls of thunder. On some occasions, severe thunderstorms are accompanied by swirling vortices to form as tornadoes. 2.2.2 Physical characteristics Aircraft and radar measurements show that a single thunderstorm cell extends to an altitude of 8,000 to 10,000 metres (26,000 to 33,000 feet) and lasts about 30 minutes. An isolated storm usually contains several cells in different stages of evolution and lasts about an hour. A large storm can be many tens of kilometers in diameter with a top that extends to altitudes above 18 km (10 miles), and its duration can be many hours. 2.2.3 Formation A thunderstorm is known to develop when the atmosphere becomes unstable to vertical motion. Such an instability can arise whenever relatively warm, light air lies below cooler, heavier air. Under such conditions the cooler air tends to sink, displacing the warmer air upward. If sufficiently large volume of air rises, an updraft (a strong current of rising air) will be produced. If the updraft is moist, the water will

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condense and form clouds; condensation in turn will release latent heat energy, further fueling upward air motion and increasing the instability. Once upward air motions are initiated in an unstable atmosphere, rising parcels of warm air accelerate as they rise through their cooler surroundings because they are more buoyant. This motion can set up a pattern of convection wherein heat and moisture are transported upward and cooler and drier air is transported downward. Areas of the atmosphere where vertical motion is relatively strong are called cells, and when they carry air to the upper troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere), they are called deep cells. Thunderstorms develop when deep cells of moist convection become organized and merge, and then produce precipitation and ultimately lightning and thunder. Upward motions can be initiated in a variety of ways in the atmosphere. A common mechanism is by the heating of a land surface and the adjacent layers of air by insolation. If the surface heating is sufficient, temperatures of the lowest layers of air will rise faster than upper layers, and the air will become unstable. The ability of the ground to heat up quickly is why most thunderstorms form over land rather than oceans. Mountains can also trigger upward atmospheric motion by acting as topographic barriers that force winds to rise. Mountains also act as high-level sources of heat and instability when their surfaces are heated by the Sun. 2.2.4 Structure The huge clouds associated with thunderstorms typically start as isolated cumulus clouds that develop vertically as towers. If there is enough instability and moisture and the winds are favourable, the heat released by condensation will further enhance the buoyancy of the rising air mass. The cumulus clouds will grow and merge with other cells to form a cumulus congestus cloud extending even higher into the atmosphere (6 kilometers or more above the surface). Ultimately, a cumulonimbus cloud will form, with its characteristic anvil-shaped top, billowing sides, and dark base. Cumulonimbus clouds typically produce large amounts of precipitation. Thunderstorms are classified as local, frontal, or orographic (mountain-initiated) thunderstorms following their origin. 2.2.5 Isolated thunderstorms Isolated thunderstorms tend to occur where there are light winds that do not change much with height and where there is abundant moisture at low and middle levels of the atmosphere (i.e.) from near the surface of the ground up to around 10 km in altitude. These storms are sometimes called air-mass or local thunderstorms. They are mostly vertical in structure, are relatively short-lived, and usually do not produce violent weather at the ground. Such storms are composed of one or more convective cells, each of which goes through a welldefined life cycle. Early in the development of a cell, the air motion is mostly upward, not as a steady, uniform stream but as one that is composed of a series of rising eddies. Cloud and precipitation particles form and grow as the cell grows. When the accumulated load of water and ice becomes excessive, a downdraft starts.

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The downward motion is enhanced when the cloud particles evaporate and cool the airalmost the reverse of the process in an updraft. At maturity, the cell contains both updrafts and downdrafts in close proximity. In its later stages, the downdraft spreads throughout the cell and diminishes in intensity as precipitation falls from the cloud. Isolated thunderstorms contain one or more convective cells in different stages of evolution. Frequently, the downdrafts and associated outflows from a storm trigger new convective cells nearby, resulting in the formation of a multiple-cell thunderstorm. Solar heating is an important factor in triggering local, isolated thunderstorms. Most such storms occur in the late afternoon and early evening, when surface temperatures are highest. 2.2.6 Multiple-cell thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems Violent weather at the ground is usually produced by organized multiple-cell storms, squall lines, or a supercell. All of these tend to be associated with a mesoscale disturbance (a weather system of intermediate size with 10 to 1,000 km horizontal extent). Multiple-cell storms have several updrafts and downdrafts in close proximity to one another. They occur in clusters of cells at various stages of development moving together as a group. Within the cluster one cell dominates for a time before weakening, and then another cell repeats the cycle. In squall lines, thunderstorms form in an organized line and create a single, continuous gust front (the leading edge of a storms outflow from its downdraft). Supercell storms have one intense updraft and downdraft as discussed in more detail later. Sometimes the development of a mesoscale atmospheric disturbance causes thunderstorms to develop over a region of hundreds of kilometres in diameter. Examples of such disturbances include frontal wave cyclones and low-pressure troughs at upper levels of the atmosphere. The resulting pattern of storms is called a mesoscale convective system (MCS). Severe multiple-cell thunderstorms and supercell storms are frequently associated with MCSs. Precipitation produced by these systems typically include rainfall from convective clouds and from stratiform clouds (cloud layers with a large horizontal extent). Thunderstorms can be triggered by a cold front that moves into moist, unstable air. Sometimes squall lines develop in the warm air mass, tens to hundreds of kilometres ahead of a cold front. The tendency of prefrontal storms to be more or less aligned parallel to the front indicates that they are initiated by atmospheric disturbances caused by the front. In the tropics, the northeast trade winds meet the southeast trades near the Equator, and the resulting ITCZ is characterized by air that is both moist and unstable. Thunderstorms and MCSs appear in great abundance in the ITCZ and they play an important role in the transport of heat to upper levels of the atmosphere and to higher latitudes. 2.2.7 Supercell storms When environmental winds are favourable, the updraft and downdraft of a storm become organized and twist around and reinforce each other. The result is a long-lived supercell storm. These storms are the

16

most intense type of thunderstorm. Updraft speeds in supercell storms can exceed 40 metres per second and are capable of suspending hailstones as large as grapefruit. Supercells can last for two to six hours. These are the most likely storms that produce spectacular wind and hail damage as well as powerful tornadoes.

2.3 Western Disturbances

A western disturbance (WD) is defined as an eastward-moving extra-tropical upper air trough in the subtropical westerlies, often extending down to the lower atmospheric level over the north Indian latitudes during the winter months. Sometimes, these are observed as closed cyclonic circulations at the sea-level. WDs are one of the most important weather systems that cause adverse weather conditions over northwest India and particularly over the western Himalayan region. Analysis of synoptic charts shows that a WD originates usually over the Mediterranean Sea/Black Sea area as an extra-tropical frontal system, but its frontal characteristics are lost while moving eastward towards India across Afghanistan/Pakistan. Even then an intense WD is capable of producing widespread heavy snowfall over the western Himalayan region and rains over northern plains for a day or two and may lead to snow avalanches. Satellite studies indicate that the secondaries of extra-tropical depressions move northeastward from the eastern Mediterranean and are confined to the latitudinal belt 25 N to 35 N and that the frequency of WDs abruptly decreases from winter to the pre-monsoon season. The WDs are also observed to move across north India even in the hot weather period of April and May. Western disturbances are recognized as the cloud and precipitation systems that move from west to east over northern India during the winter season. These disturbances approach from the west in contrast to most of the rain systems that approach from the east during the monsoon season. These are low pressure systems which move across the extreme north of the country or sometimes even further to the north. They may be seen on the surface chart or in the lower troposphere as a closed low or even a trough. Usually there is a trough to the west in the mid or upper troposphere. As the western disturbances come over longitudes of Indo-Pakistan area, an induced low sometimes forms over Sind and west Pakistan. If at this stage the upper trough extends well to the south, the induced low may become active. The induced low is generally shallow and its circulation does not extend as high as the main disturbance. WDs are usually associated with recognizable 24 hour pressure changes-fall of pressure ahead of the disturbances and rise in the rear. The pressure gradient associated with the high in the rear of the western disturbances is sometimes strong and may extend over north and central Arabian sea causing moderate to strong winds. Rise in the minimum temperatures is also an indicator of approaching of WD. Sometime it is possible that there can be more than one low level system over the Indian area with a diffuse isobaric configuration. Even otherwise, surface isobaric configuration associated with WD is generally quite weak and isobars may have to drawn at 1 mb interval, so that weaker systems are not missed. When there is more than one low present, each low causes its own belt of weather.
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Without the appearance of a low either at the surface or at the levels below 1.0 km, weather does not occur over India to the south of 30 N latitude However to the north of 30 N, weather can occur due to disturbance seen mainly in the upper air or due to the system moving to the north of India. The converse may not always be true i.e. even when a low or trough has appeared on the chart, weather may not occur in some cases. The intensification of the seasonal high over east Asia, its more southerly location and its extension as a pronounced ridge southwestward into Iran and west Pakistan appear to inhibit active WD over India. So also depressions in the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal are seen to inhibit the WD. The activity of the WD is closely related to the position of the low level circulation in relation to the upper level systems (such as trough or wind maxima). Thus there is need to recognize the systems in the lower or upper troposphere and follow their sequences. It is far easier to trace the upper trough and locate the favourable region of development on the charts, than the wind maxima. The existence of surface low to the north of India as well as the intensity and the latitudinal extent of the upper air trough can be followed more systematically with the extended charts and hence a better understanding of the behaviour of the western disturbance is possible to some extent. Still the behaviour of the upper air systems themselves is a matter not clearly understood-for example, their intensification or weakening and their amplification or relaxation. In the middle latitudes during periods of low index circulation westerly troughs may be expected to develop large amplitude and affect lower latitudes. On such occasions we may perhaps anticipate more induced lows over the Indian sub-continent and the extension of weather over large areas. During high index type circulation, upper air troughs may affect only the extreme north of the country and may also move away quickly. As to their relation with monsoon rainfall, monsoon onset over NW India is delayed (or advanced) by increase (or decrease) in the number of WDs in April. In the Himalayan region of India, monsoon current progresses from east to west. But the WDs move across north India from west to east, with consequent rise in pressure and cold pool of air in the rear. Though WDs activate monsoon in certain areas of NW India, it is not clear whether the visit of pre-monsoon WDs across north India has any impact on the progress of forthcoming monsoon current towards NW India and its activity.

2.4 Cold waves

Another feature associated with WD is the cold wave. According to the IMD, moderate cold wave and severe cold wave are noted when the minimum temperatures drop by 6-70 C and 80 C below their normal. No absolute minimum temperature limit is included in the definition of the cold wave which is always with reference to the normal minimum temperatures for the stations in the area. It is often noticed that when the

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minimum temperatures fall sufficiently, there is also a drop in the maximum temperatures; the range through which the maximum temperatures drop may, however, not be the same as of minimum temperatures. Ground frost may also occur in association with cold wave. Severe cold waves occur in northwest India, west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat state, Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha between December and April, although the number of occasions are less in December and April. Occasionally they also extend eastwards to east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal and southwards to Marathwada, Telangana, rayalseema and North Interior Mysore. During the cold waves, the minimum temperatures have dropped as much as 10-120 C below normal and over Jammu and Kashmir of 15 to 200 C below normal. A spell of cold wave over northern India generally lasts about 4 to 5 days and in exceptional cases upto ten days. Although it is usual to associate cold waves with active western disturbances moving across India and West Pakistan, it is found that on some occasions when the temperatures are already below normal, even a small drop in the temperature in the rear of a weak disturbance may bring the temperature down sufficiently to be classified as a cold wave. In some rare instances, disturbances to the north of the country also causes cold wave, when the high in the rear of the disturbance extends to Indo-Pakistan sub-continent. The lowest temperature in the cold wave is usually reached on the second night of the cold spell. Since cold waves occur in the rear of WD where pressure gradient is somewhat strong, the resulting strong winds add to human discomfort. The pressure gradient sometimes extends over north and central Arabian sea also. Generally the winds below 1.0 km are closely related to the onset and progress of cold waves. The wind at 0.9 km has been found to be very useful in advecting the 100 C and 70 C minimum temperature isotherms during the subsequent 24 hrs. The winds at higher levels do not seem to have any significance in forecasting the cold wave. Over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha etc. a more northerly component for the upper winds (0.3 to 0.9 km) is favourable for a cold wave than a northeasterly or easterly turning around the anticyclone over northwest India. Cold waves are associated with large drops in surface dew points, suggesting the incursion of extremely dry air. On days of cold waves the changes in the dry bulb at a station with the advancement of cold wave is much less than the changes in the dew point (i.e.) the dry bulb temperatures during the cold wave days are not very different (or in fact even warmer) from the normal values but the dew point temperatures are very much lower than the normal values, suggestive of the greater role played by the lack of moisture in the lowering of temperature. During the period of cold waves the morning ascents show considerable stability in the lower level, sometimes extending from the ground to as high as 800-750 mb level.

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2.5 Fog
Fog is a localized phenomenon, but certain synoptic situations become favourable for the occurrence of fog over fairly large areas. The most important synoptic situation under which fog occurs over large areas, is the western disturbance. In the rear and sometimes ahead of WD, the low level moisture, wind field and stability conditions become favourable for the occurrence of radiation fog. If rain falls in the evening or night and immediately after the rain the sky clears up and strong winds do not set in, there is good chance for thick fog on the next morning. Often fog occurs on the subsequent one or two mornings also. Such situations occur in the immediate rear of a western disturbance. Along the coastal areas of Orissa and West Bengal fog generally occurs ahead of the western disturbance, when a shallow current of moist air is drawn over these areas under the influence of a WD further to the west. Occasionally such conditions also occur over Bihar and Uttar Pradesh when an easterly stream in the very low levels extends over these areas under the influence of a WD over northwest India. When the low level moisture content is quite large, the fog may persist for a long period and may be accompanied or followed by very low and thick stratiform clouds. On some occasions, thick fog and stratus cloud have persisted up to forenoon or even mid-day.

2.6 Avalanches
In the high mountain regions, such as Himalayas, avalanches are known to be hazardous killing people, causing disruption to movement etc. An avalanche is the downward descent of a large mass of snow on a slope with a high velocity and force. The downward motion may be in the form of gliding or sliding along the slope like a rock fall, flowing along the slope like a fluid or whirling through air like a hurricane. A typical avalanche site can be divided into three zones, viz. (a) formation zone, with a slope angle of 3050 degree, (b) middle zone, with a slope angle of 1530 degree and (c) run out zone, with a slope angle of less than 15 degree. Generally, an avalanche starts at formation zone, attains a maximum speed at middle zone and comes to halt at run out zone by depositing the snow mass, which came down along with the avalanche. Snow avalanches occur during winter months in the snowbound belt of Western and Central Himalaya and to some extent in Eastern Himalaya. Indian Himalaya stretches from east to west for about 2500 km across 72 E to 96 E long. and 26 N to 37 N lat. For the Himalayan belt, the main mountain system is divided into three principle zones which have marked orographic features. These are the Great Himalaya, Lesser Himalaya and the Outer Himalaya. The Himalaya have about 43,000 sq. km of permanent ice bound area. In India, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Himachal Pradesh (HP), Uttaranchal and part of Sikkim are the avalanche prone states. Conventionally avalanche forecasting is being done by assessing the snow pack stability using contributory factors approach. These factors are terrain, snow pack and weather. The terrain factor is a fixed parameter for any given location whereas snow and weather factors are varying, which have to be

20

analysed in detail. Some of the snow pack factors considered are snow depth, nature of snow surface, existence of weakness within snow pack, bond between new and old snow pack, etc. Qualitative and sitewise prediction of avalanches as well as integrated avalanche forecast models require precise weather forecast. Ideally speaking, the numerical forecast of the following weather elements up to 7 km altitude at least 24 hours in advance, preferably 3 days in advance, is required for the purpose of avalanche forecasting or for the use of avalanche forecast models. The important weather elements are: (a) Precipitation amount and type (b) Wind speed and direction (c) Temperature (d) Radiation (e) Relative humidity (RH) and surface atmospheric pressure. The numerical forecast of the above parameters is possible through nested modeling approach of mesoscale modeling. Numerical forecasts for this region are presently available at 10 km resolution, but avalanche forecasting demands weather forecast preferably at 2 km or higher grid resolution. Srinivasan et al (2005) provided an over view of the mountain weather forecasting as necessary for the prediction of avalanches.

2.7 Mid-tropospheric cyclones

It was observed that very heavy rainfall over western India, especially over the northern parts of Maharashtra, Saurashtra-Kutch and Gujarat was associated with cyclonic vortices that were confined to the middle atmosphere. They appear as circular vortices between 3 and 6 km, with their largest amplitude near 600 hPa (4 km). The dimensions of these vortices are roughly of the order of 300 km in the horizontal direction and about 3 km in the vertical direction. A peculiar feature of these vortices is that they are only confined to the middle troposphere and are not visible at the surface. The structure of the mid-tropospheric cyclonic vortex reveals a core of warm air above the middle level and a slightly cold core below that level. Unlike the Bay of Bengal depressions, they show very little movement and appear to remain quasi-stationary for many days. The formation of these mid-tropospheric cyclones is often responsible for heavy rain on the northern sectors of the west coast of India. Rainfall amounts of 20 cm in twenty four hours are not uncommon. The formation of a mid Tropospheric cyclone could be anticipated when the winds in the lower level are stronger than those at the upper levels of the atmosphere, which indicate unstable atmospheric conditions that has some resemblance to a mid-tropospheric vortex.

2.8 Off-shore vortices

During the monsoon, we often observe spells of very heavy rain along the west coast of India. Apart from mid-tropospheric cyclones, these spells of heavy rain are associated with off-shore vortices. It is to be noted that the west coast has an orographic barrier in the form of the western Ghats, which have an average altitude between 1.0 and 1.5 km. These mountains run in a north-south direction, and are approximately 1000 km in length and 200 km in breadth. When the monsoon winds strike the mountains, on many occasions they do not have enough energy to climb over the western Ghats and tend to be deflected round the mountain and

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the return current forms an off-shore vortex. These vortices have very small linear dimensions. Their diameter is only of the order of 100 km and their presence is often detected by a weak easterly wind at coastal stations. Notwithstanding their small dimension, they are capable of generating spells of very heavy rain lasting for 2-3 days during the monsoon season.

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CHAPTER 3 AN OVERVIEW OF MESOSCALE MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

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This page is kept blank Intentionally

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3.1 Overview of Mesoscale Models

In this section a brief description of the different meoscale atmospheric models (MM5, ETA, RSM, WRF, RAMS, ARPS, HRM and LAM) run at different institutions in India are described. 3.1.1 The MM5 Model The MM5 model is a non-hydrostatic, terrain-following sigma coordinate model developed at National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR], USA (NCAR, 2003; Dudhia, 2003, Grell et al., 1994). The model is used in different configurations depending on the requirements at different institutions. For example, the model (version 3.6) is run at triple nested domains (90, 30 and 10 Km resolutions) over the Indian region on real time basis at NCMRWF using the boundary conditions from its operational global spectral model, which has a horizontal resolution of T80 and a vertical resolution of 18 sigma levels. There are 23 vertical sigma levels in the MM5. A summary of dynamics and different physical processes parameterized in the model is presented in Table 3.1A. Figure 3.1 illustrates the domains of the MM5 model used at NCMRWF. The middle domain of 30 Km resolution covers all over India and neighbourhood. An inner domain at 10 Km resolution was initially placed over Jammu and Kashmir region to cater the need of Avalanch studies. Further, the inner domain at 10 km resolution was shifted over the central Himalayas and a fourth domain was configured over the west Bengal region to cater the need of the STORM project. 3.1.2 The ETA Model The ETA model is a hydrostatic mesoscale weather forecast model with an accurate treatment of complex topography using ETa vertical coordinate and step like mountains, which eliminates the errors in the computation of pressure gradient force over steeply sloped terrain present in sigma coordinate system developed at the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. The version used here follows that described by Black (1994) and Mesinger (1996). The model employs a semi-staggered Arakawa E-grid in which wind points are adjacent to the mass points, configured in rotated spherical coordinates. The mesoscale ETa model is run operationally at NCMRWF with a horizontal grid spacing of 48 and 22 km with 38 vertical levels, having layer depths that range from 20 m in the planetary boundary layer to 2 km at 50 mb (details are given in Table 3.1A). The model top is at 25 hPa. Split explicit time differencing is used with a time step of 120 seconds. Spatial differencing is done with a conserving Arakawa type scheme. The models step mountains are derived using the official United States Geological Survey (USGS) topographical data. It uses analyzed SST from NCEP for its surface boundary conditions.

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Figure 3.1: Domains of the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF models used at NCMRWF. Shadings indicate topography in km.

3.1.3 The Regional Spectral Model (RSM) The RSM used at NCMRWF is the latest version of NCEP RSM97 (Juang and Kanamitsu, 1994, Juang et.al., 1997). It works on the philosophy of Perturbation method. The RSM is one-way nested with the T80 global model. The nesting strategy used by RSM is domain and spectral nesting, which is characteristically different from the lateral boundary nesting strategy of conventional regional models. RSM allows global model forecast fields to be used over the entire domain and not just in the lateral boundary zone. The difference of the regional model fields from the base fields are called Perturbations, which are converted to wave space for the purpose of using semi-implicit time integration. The base fields are the time-dependent global model forecasts. The nesting is done in such a way that the perturbation may be non-zero inside the regional domain but zero outside of it. Perturbation signifies all other features that could not be predicted by the global model but can be resolved over the regional domain by the regional model forecasts. The physics and the non-linear dynamics are computed in grid space only with full regional model fields. The basis functions for spectral conversion are double sine-cosine series with 72 waves along zonal and 70 waves along the meridional direction. The domain is approximately 52 E 109 E and 6 S 45 N and covers the whole of India and nearby oceanic regions. The time step for RSM is 5 minutes and the nesting period is 6 hours. It uses analyzed SST from NCEP for its surface boundary conditions. RSM predicts the relatively smaller perturbations superimposed over the previously predicted largescale components by the global model, which was run prior to it. Hence the errors introduced in the perturbation due to the lateral boundary will remain small which enables a longer period time integration compared to the
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conventional grid point regional models. The lateral boundary is relaxed towards the global model values using Tatsumis boundary relaxation scheme. It is more logical for the perturbation values to approach zero along the boundary. Table 3.1A summarizes the main features of the model. Table 3.1A: Summary of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Models
Grid Horizontal Resolution Vertical Levels Topography Dynamics Time Integration Time Steps Vertical Differencing Semi Implicit 270s/90s/30s Arakawas Energy Conserving Scheme Roberts Method Semi Implicit 120s(48km.) / 60s(22 km.) Euler backward scheme Semi Implicit 300 s Arakawas Energy Conserv Scheme Asselin filter 4th order Semi Implicit 180 s Arakawas Energy Conserving Scheme MM5 90/30/10 km. 23 USGS ETA 48/22 km. 38 Silhouette Step RSM 50 km. 18 US Navy WRF 36 km. 31 USGS

Time Filtering Horizontal Diffusion

Roberts Method 2nd order over Quasi-pressure, surface, scale selective

4th order for inner Modified Euler domains. backward with 2nd order for the Janic advection coarser domains

Physics Convection Grell Betts-MillerJanjic Mellor Yamada level 2.5 Turbulent Exchange Explicit Cloud Water/Ice Prediction GFDL No NOAH SAS scheme & Tiedke scheme Non Local closure Kain-Fritsch

PBL

MRF (Non Local closure) Simple Ice (Dudhia) Simple Cooling No Five Layer Soil Model

YSU Scheme

Cloud Microphysics Radiation Gravity Wave Drag Land Surface Processes

Slingos Scheme / Grid Scale Rain GFDL Yes Pan & Mahrt

WSM 3-Class Simple Ice RRTM (LW) Dudhia (SW) No Thermal Diffusion

3.1.4 The WRF Model The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation mesocale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric process modelling research needs. It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system, and a software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility. WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers. Applications of WRF include basic research and operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), data assimilation and
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parameterized-physics research, downscaling climate simulations, driving air quality models, atmosphereocean coupling, and idealized simulations (i.e., boundary-layer eddies, convection, baroclinic waves). There are two dynamics solvers in the WRF system: the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) solver (originally referred to as the Eulerian mass or em) developed primarily at NCAR, and the NMM (Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) solver developed at NCEP. The ARW system consists of the ARW dynamics solver with other components of the WRF system needed to produce a simulation. This model is being continuously developed in USA incorporating the best features of the recent generation mesoscale models and utilizing recent knowledge. At NCMRWF, the WRF-ARW system is run operationally, but the H-WRF (Hurricane WRF developed at NCEP) is being tested. Details of the dynamics and physics options used at NCMRWF are listed in the Table 3.1. Presently, the model is run on a single domain covering the Indian region at 36 km horizontal resolution and 31 vertical levels. 3.1.5 The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was developed at the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at University of Oklahoma, USA. The original goal of ARPS was to serve as a prototype system for storm scale numerical weather prediction. It includes a data ingest, quality control, and objective analysis package known as ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis System), a single-Doppler radar parameter retrieval and assimilation system known as ARPSDAS (ARPS Data Assimilation System, of which ADAS is a component), the prediction model and a post-processing package (http://www.caps.ou.edu/ARPS/arpsoverview.html). ARPS is a three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic, fully compressible model with Boussinesq option in generalized terrain-following coordinates that has been designed to run on a variety of computing platforms ranging from single-processor scalar workstations to massively parallel scalar and scalar-vector processors. The model uses Arakawa C-grid with equal-spacing in the horizontal and user-specified stretching in the vertical. It has Polar stereographic, Lambert conformal, and Mercator map projection options. It has a comprehensive package for physical parameterization schemes that include subgrid scale turbulence options of Smagorinsky-Lilly diagnostic first-order closure, 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy formulation, and Germano dynamic closure. The model also provides options for isotropic and anisotropic turbulence based upon grid aspect ratio. The PBL scheme is based on TKE scheme. The Cloud Microphysics options include Kessler warm-rain, Lin-Tao 3-category ice, and Schultz simplified ice NEM parameterizations. The Cumulus Parameterization options include Kuo and Kain-Fritsch schemes separately or in combination with other microphysics options. The surface layer parameterization includes surface momentum, heat, and moisture fluxes based on bulk aerodynamic drag laws as well as stability-dependent formulations. The soil model includes two-layer diffusive soil model with surface energy budget equations. Options are provided for multiple soil types in a single grid cell. The longwave and shortwave radiation schemes consist of full long- and short-wave radiation capabilities including cloud interaction, cloud shadowing, and terrain gradient effects. Table 3.1B provides a summary of the model features.
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Table 3.1B: Summary of the Models, continued.,

Grid Horizontal Resolution Vertical Levels Topography Dynamics Time Integration ARPS 50/25 km 25 Terrain data 5 min Semi-implicit RAMS 48/16/4 km 36 USGS 30 (Silhouette) Hybrid (leap frog for vector, forward for scalars) 90/30/10 sec 4th order 20 HRM LAM 75 km 16 US Navy

Semi Implicit

Time Steps Vertical Differencing Time Filtering Horizontal Diffusion Physics Convection

90/30 sec 4th order

600 sec Centered for all except humidity, which is forward 2nd order

Asselin filter --

Tripoli (1992) 4th order

Kain-Fritsch

KUO/ KainFritsch

Tiedtke (1989)

Modified Kuo (Krishnamuti et al., 1983)

PBL

1.5 TKE Deardorff (1980)

Mellor-Yamada (1974) 2.5 TKE

Cloud Microphysics

Lin etal., (1983)

Radiation

NASA GSFC (Simplified radiation)

five prognostic hydrometeor Walko etal. (1995), Meyer etal., (1997) Harrington (1999)

MellorYamada (1974) 2.5 TKE Kesseler and Lin et al., (1983)

(Louis, 1979)

Based on threshold relative humidity

Ritter and Geleyn (1992)

Gravity Wave Drag Land Surface Processes

No Noilhan and Planton (1989)

No LEAF-2 (Walko etal., 2000)

No Dickinson, 84 Sellers (1994)

Long Wave (Harshavardan and Corsetti, 1984); Short wave (Lacis and Hansen, 1974) No (Businger et al. 1971)

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3.1.6 The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is a highly versatile limited area model developed at Colorado State University, USA for simulating and forecasting meteorological phenomena (http:// rams.atmos.colostate.edu/rams-description.html). Its major components are: (1) an atmospheric model which performs the actual simulations, (2) a data analysis package which prepares initial data for the atmospheric model from observed meteorological data and, (3) a post-processing model visualization and analysis package which interfaces atmospheric model output with a variety of visualization software utilities. The atmospheric model is constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions, and supplements these equations with optional parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, solar and terrestrial radiation, moist processes including the formation and interaction of clouds and precipitating liquid and ice hydrometeors, sensible and latent heat exchange between the atmosphere, multiple soil layers, a vegetation canopy, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and cumulus convection. RAMS may be configured to cover an area as large as a planetary hemisphere for simulating mesoscale and large scale atmospheric systems. There is no lower limit to the domain size or to the mesh cell size of the models finite difference grid: microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, as well as sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings and in a wind tunnel, have been simulated with this code. Twoway interactive grid nesting in RAMS allows local fine mesh grids to resolve compact atmospheric systems such as thunderstorms, while simultaneously modeling the large scale environment of the systems on a coarser grid. Table 3.1B provides the summary of model features. 3.1.7 The High Resolution Model (HRM) The High Resolution Model (HRM) is a flexible tool for numerical weather prediction, developed by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) of Germany (http://www.iac.ethz.ch/en/groups/schaer/climmod/chrm/ index.html). The HRM is a grid point model based on Arakawa-C grid and hybrid vertical coordinate system with 20 layers in the vertical. It has Kessler-type grid-scale cloud microphysics as updated by Lin et al. (1983), Mass flux convection scheme after Tiedtke (1989), vertical diffusion for the surface layer and, a 1.5order TKE scheme after Mellor and Yamada (1974). Radiation scheme includes Ritter and Geleyn (1992) based on the solution of the delta-two-stream version of the radiative transfer equation at all wavelengths, with full cloud-radiation feedback. It has two-layer extended force-restore soil model including snow and interception storage. Land surface parameterization is adapted from Dickinson (1984) and driven by ISLSCP (Sellers et al. 1994) data. The HRM has been run in an operational mode at SPL, since September 2002. The latest version of HRM has been customized and made operational. The model is run by downloading initial and lateral boundary information from DWD site. Accurate forecasting of meteorological parameters over SHAR is very important, particularly during the period of satellite launch. During the launch, SPL has been regularly providing forecast

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bulletins of several fields and profiles of meteorological parameters over the SHAR region valid for 48 hours. Table 3.1B provides a summary of the model features. 3.1.8 The Limited Area Model (LAM) The limited Area Model (LAM) is a grid point model from the FSU, USA adapted at IMD. It is a multi-level, semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit primitive equation regional model on an Arakawa-C grid. The model employs a semi-Lagrangian advective scheme combined with semi-implicit time integration scheme and includes detailed physics and initialization processes. The model includes a number of physical processes such as cumulus convection (modified Kuo-Krishnamurti et al 1983), shallow convection (Tiedke 1984), large scale condensation, atmospheric boundary layer (Monin-Obukhov formulation of surface layers with stability dependent vertical diffusion in mixed layer), radiation (Harshvardan et al 1987; Lacis and Hansen 1974) and envelope orography. The orography is smoothened by a nine point smoother to prevent instability due to steep gradients of terrain over the Himalayan region. The other features of the model include time dependent lateral boundary conditions and dynamic normal mode initialization. Further details of the model formulation can be found in Krishnamurti et al (1989). The analysis forecast system consists of real-time data decoding, multivariate optimum interpolation analysis covering 300S to 600N; 00 to 1500E (RMC region). Table 3.1B provides a summary of the model features. Presently, the model is run at horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 lat./long with 18 sigma levels in the vertical using the initial and boundary conditions obtained from NCMRWF/ T80 global spectral model, twice daily initialized with 00UTC and 12UTC observations. The model is run up to 48 hours.

3.2 Severe Weather Forecasting

Forecasting of mesoscale convective systems in a tropical country like India continues to be one of the difficult areas in NWP due to complex issues which involve: impact of orography, treatment of synoptically induced mesoscale processes and lack of good quality mesoscale observations, particularly over the ocean. During the last two decades, weather forecasting all over the world has greatly benefited from the guidance provided by NWP. The significant improvements in accuracy and reliability of NWP products were due to advances in numerical techniques, explosive growth in computer power and by the phenomenal increase in satellite-based soundings. However limitations remain in the prediction of severe weather events which have a very short life, but still cause extensive damage. A recent example occurred on 26th July 2005, Mumbai, the commercial capital of the country, received unprecedented heavy rainfall with its suburb Santa Cruz recording 94.4 cm of rainfall with in a span of 24 hours. There were reports of even heavier rainfall of 104 cm near Vihar Lake. This torrential rain disrupted the life in the metropolis, caused large number of deaths and according to early estimates resulted in a loss of about 15,000 Crore Indian Rupees.

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Many institutions in the country (NCMRWF, IIT, IITM, C-MMACS, AU) carried out post-mortem analysis of the Mumbai rainfall event (Bohra et al., 2006; Goswami 2006). Figure 3.2 illustrates the time series of observed rainfall at Santacruiz and Colaba on 26 July 2005. It was reported that the rain occurred with lot of thunder activity. It was also suggested that an offshore vortex was the possible underlying cause.
1000

944.2
900 800 700

SANTACURZ

COLABA CLOABA
768.8 667.7

885

896

Cumulative Rainfall

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

400.1

0.9 0.7 08301100

19.3 7 11301430

26.5 14301730

26.5 17302030

33.1 20302330

33.1 23300230

57.1 02300530

73.4 05300830

Time in IST

Figure 3.2: Time series of observed rainfall on 26th July over Santacruz and Colaba

Table 3.2 Mean track errors in km (no. of forecast experiments) 24hr Without bogus vortex With bogus vortex 112 (35) 89 (10) 48 hr 146 (35) 143 (10) 72 hr 226 (27) 166 (10)

It was, however, not supported by observations. None of the NWP models operational in India and abroad could predict the unprecedented rainfall reported at Mumbai (Sikka and Rao, 2007). Experiments revealed that the best rainfall simulations were obtained when the MM5 model was run at 10 km resolutions using the initial and boundary conditions from the UKMO model having superior analysis based on radiance assimilation (Bohra et al., 2006). Figure 3.3 shows the simulated rainfall maxima exceeding 80 cm from this experiment, though the location is somewhat to the west of Mumbai. The NWP guidance in this case was of limited help, if any. It revealed that the use of very high resolution global and regional models with advanced data assimilation techniques (4-D VAR), could significantly enhance the usefulness of NWP guidance. Study of Goswami (2006) indicated that along with resolution, the geographical coverage and the size of the domain

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also play critical roles in the simulation of a mesoscale event. The best simulation was found for domains that were not the largest but that covered significant part of the equatorial ocean. While this conclusion is likely to change based on event location, their study shows that the choice of the meso-scale domain is a non-trivial but critical input for improved mesoscale simulation and forecasting, and needs to be determined through a comprehensive calibration experiment.

Figure 3.3: Same as Figure 16, but with a higher resolution(10km)

3.3 Cyclone track and intensity prediction

The Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones are among the costliest and deadliest of the natural hazards in Indian sub-continent. It has significant socio-economic impact on the countries bordering the Bay of Bengal, in particular, India, Bangladesh and Mayanmar. Timely and reasonably accurate prediction of track and intensity of these storms can save lot of lives and reduce damage to properties and therefore, is of utmost importance. The genesis and movement of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones are unique in nature compared to other regions. An idealized axi-symmetric model was used first time in India to understand the evolution and structure of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone (Bhaskar Rao, 1987). With the availability of mesoscale models, many studies have been carried out in India on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones. Of particular interest is the recently carried out exercise in which several Indian institutions participated in the inter-comparison of simulations of the Orissa super cyclone of 1999 (Mohanty et al., 2004; Bhaskar Rao and Hari Prasad, 2006; Ashrit et al. 2006; Mandal et al., 2006, Trivedi et al., 2006). This cyclone was named as Super Cyclone ( hereafter referred to as OSC99) for the first time by MD as this cyclone is the most severe cyclone of the last century with an estimated central surface pressure of 912 hPa and maximum wind of 140 knots. Due to its unprecedented maximum intensity, it was a challenge to modelling community to examine the capability of mesoscale models for its successful simulation. Large number of numerical experiments was performed to examine the role of horizontal resolution and the choice of different parameterization schemes, especially of cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer and explicit moisture processes. Bhaskar Rao and Hari Prasad (2006) carried out numerical experiments to study the sensitivity of parameterization schemes of convection, planetary boundary layer and explicit moisture. The model simulated

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movement and the development of the OSC-99 during its evolution from a low pressure system to a super cyclone were studied using the MM5 model. Their results showed that the best simulation of track and the intensity of the cyclone was obtained when the combination of Kain-Fritsch2 for cumulus convection, MellorYamada for planetary boundary layer and Mixed Phase scheme for explicit moisture was used in the model at 10 km resolution. Figures 3.4 and 3.5 illustrate the simulated tracks and intensity by using different combinations of microphysical processes. The model could simulate a steep pressure fall of 55 hPa in 36 hours as compared to 86 hPa of the IMD reports. They could simulate strong low-level convergence within 150 km radius; upper-level divergence over a wider region; warm core, dry and subsidence motions at the center within the 50 km radius; strong upward motion in the 50-100 km radius throughout the troposphere indicating the distinct characteristics of a mature cyclonic storm. The model predicted rainfall distribution and intensity agreed with the observations. The model could simulate asymmetrical distribution of the rainfall, with maximum exceeding 40 cm/day, located towards the left of the storm track before landfall and towards right after the landfall. Their results showed that precipitation from cloud resolvable processes contributes for most of the rainfall associated with the cyclone where as sub-grid scale convection contributes in the outer environment

Figure 3.4: Track positions for the experiments for all explicit moisture schemes in combination with Kain-Fristch2 for convection and MRF for PBL processes along with IMD estimates.
1010
IM D K F2+ MY + SI

990

K F2+ MY + M P K F2+ MY + W R

970 C S P (h Pa)

K F2+ MY + GM

950

930

910

890 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 T im e (h r) 90 96 102 108 114 1 20

Figure 3.5: Time variation of model simulated Central Sea level Pressure (hPa) for the experiments with different explicit moisture schemes in combination with KF2 for convection and MY for PBL along with IMD estimates.

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Experiments with bogus vortex (synthetic vortex) have been conducted at NCMRWF, IIT-D and AU using the MM5 model. The mean error statistics are shown in Table 3.2. Results indicate that the incorporation of bogus vortex improves the forecast errors by about 20%. Further, experiments have also been conducted at IIT-D, NCMRWF, AU , IITM and C-MMACS with the Advance Research version of the model WRFARW developed by NCAR and the Hurricane HWRF model developed by NCEP. Both the models have been tested with the recent tropical cyclones MALA and OGNI over the Bay of Bengal. The models simulated track and intensity of the storms are compared with the other operational model forecasts viz. IMD and UKMO. The forecast skills of these models are found to be very good. The models are being extensively tested for other severe cyclonic storms over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1995-1999. Table 3.2 Mean track errors in km (no. of forecast experiments) 24hr Without bogus vortex With bogus vortex 112 (35) 89 (10) 48 hr 146 (35) 143 (10) 72 hr 226 (27) 166 (10)

NCMRWF has initiated coordinating a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) on land falling Tropical Cyclones. It is an attempt at a comprehensive evaluation of various models in the country for tropical cyclone forecasting. Under its multi-scale validation, C-MMACS has carried out hindcast evaluation for more than twenty cyclones over the Indian seas for different years and season.

3.4 Thunderstorms and Cloudbursts

Severe thunderstorms form over the Eastern and Northeastern parts of India, i.e., Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa, Assam and parts of Bihar during the pre-monsoon months (April-May). These storms are known as Norwester as they move from Northwest to Southeast. They are locally called Kalbaishakhi. Strong heating of landmass during mid-day initiates convection over Chhotanagpur Plateau, which moves southeast and gets intensified by mixing with warm moist air mass. The Norwesters produce heavy rain showers, lightning, thunder, hail-storms, dust-storms, surface wind squalls, down-bursts and tornadoes. They create lot of damage to properties and crops and cause loss of life through strong surface wind squalls, large hail, lightning and occasional tornadoes accompanying them. Realizing the importance of these extreme weather events the Government of India, initiated a national coordinated programme known as STORM. During the STORM PILOT experiments (2006 and 2007), synoptic scale meteorological environment was monitored over an area covering the region 17-27 N, 80-90 E (spread over a quadrilateral PatnaGuwahati-Kolkata-Bhubneshwar-Ranchi-Patna), using regular network of IMD observatories consisting of several Surface/ Radiosonde/ Radar/ Satellite and additional meso-network of automatic weather stations (AWS) and Radiosondes provided by Indian Army. Several Norwesters formed during the pre-monsoon
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season (April-May) as summarized by Mohanty et al (2006). Das et al. (2006a) studied 10 cases of thunderstorms that formed over the West Bengal and surrounding regions during 2005 and 2006. Fig. 3.6 illustrates the simulated convective available potential energy (CAPE) for 6 cases of 2006. The inner quadrilateral of the intensive observation area of the STORM marked by Asansol-Murshidabad-Kolkata-Digha-Asansol is also depicted in the diagrams. The CAPE values have been presented for 12 hours prior to the simulated time of the thunderstorms in order to show the maximum buildup of convective energy for the formation of the Norwesters. It is known that the thunderstorms decay after the CAPE decrease. The diagrams indicate that the magnitudes of the CAPE ranged from 1600 to 3500 JKg-1. They decreased after the storms dissipated. Study of the composite characteristics of the simulated results by Das et al. (2006a) indicated that the Norwesters are triggered generally when the CAPE increases above 1500 J Kg-1. The total cloud hydrometeors inside the Norwesters can reach up to 600-800 mg Kg-1. Maximum values are obtained generally at upper levels indicating a dominance of glaciated particles in the anvil of the Norwesters. Maximum values of the updrafts have speeds of 3 to 4 m s-1. The updrafts can extend up to 8-9 km altitudes. The downdrafts have magnitudes of about 0.4 0.5 m s-1. Studies on thunderstorms have been carried out at IITM using GAME reanalysis data using the RAMS model. Mukhopadhyaya et al. (2003) studied Norwesters over Kolkata region using Doppler Radar observations.Arora and Nandi (2006) attempted to analyze the characteristic features of thunderstorm activity that occurred on 12 May 2005 over Coimbatore in south India using nested high resolution MM5 model (down to 2.5 km).

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Figure 3.6: CAPE (J Kg-1) simulated by the model on (a) 00Z19 April, (b) 00Z25 April, (c) 00Z 26 April, (d) 12Z 9 May, (e) 00Z14 May, (f) 00Z16May 2006.

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(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Figure 3.7: Composite XZ Cross Section for Equivalent Potential Temperature, Pressure Perturbation, Total Precipitation Mixing Ratio and Circulation Vector at (a) 1300, (b) 1330, (c) 1400, (d) 1430, (e) 1500, (f) 1530 local time

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The composite picture of cross sectional analysis of Equivalent Potential Temperature, Pressure Perturbation, Total Precipitation Mixing Ratio and three-dimensional Circulation Vectors are shown in Figure 3.7 at 30 minutes intervals. The vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature indicates the stability/ instability in the atmosphere, whereas, the total precipitation mixing ratio shows the presence of moisture in the vertical column. Pressure perturbation is quite important and significant in case of any significant convective activity, which suggests the presence of low perturbation pressure ahead and high pressure to the rear of a moving thunderstorm. The three-dimensional circulation vector indicates the scale of vertical motion compared to horizontal motion, as well as, the extent of updrafts and downdrafts. The analysis of these composite pictures indicates that during the period of study (i.e., between 0600 and 1800 UTC), more than one convective cell developed, moved, intensified and dissipated. Mesoscale vortices, zones of confluence or lines of discontinuity could be clearly identified and their movement was predicted with improved resolution. In fact, these features are responsible for occurrence of mesoscale disturbances, like thunderstorms. Their results indicated that vertical motion reached more than 10 m/sec in 2.25 km resolution (agreeable with theoretical considerations). The IAF also conducts an annual exercise named Meghgarjan over operational bases of the IAF in various geographical locations in India. The purpose of the exercise is to validate concept of centralized forecasting units, as well as, to test reliability of NWP forecasts and utilization of NWP products issued / generated by the Air Force Centre for NWP. The overall aim of the exercise is to augment and integrate all available observational inputs to provide improved weather watch in space and time and thereby enhance reliability, accuracy and lead time of warnings issued for convective activity by the Met sections of Air force. Cloudburst, also known as rain gush or rain gust is a sudden heavy downpour over a small region. It is among the least well-known and understood type of mesoscale systems. Rate of rainfall equal to or greater than 100 mm per hour featuring high-intensity rainfall over a short period, strong winds and lightning are associated with a cloud burst. A remarkably localized phenomenon affecting an area not exceeding 20-30 km2, cloudbursts in India occur when monsoon clouds associated with low-pressure area travel northward from the Bay of Bengal across the Indo-Gangetic plains onto the Himalayas and burst in heavy downpours (75-100 mm per hour). It represents cumulonimbus convection in conditions of marked moist thermondynamic instability and deep, rapid dynamic lifting by steep orography. Cloudburst events over remote and unpopulated hilly areas often go unreported. The states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal are the most affected due to the steep topography. Most of the damage to property, communication systems and human causalities result from the flash floods and landslides that accompany cloudbursts. Prediction of cloudbursts is challenging and requires high-resolution numerical models and mesoscale observations, high-performance computers and doppler weather radars. Societal impact could be markedly reduced if high-resolution measurements (~10 km) of atmospheric parameters and vertical profiles are provided through mesonet observations such as AWS, Radiosonde/ Rawinsonde (RS/RW), and doppler

39

weather radars. Also, education and training of local administrators to give short-notice warnings would greatly help disaster mitigation. Cloudburst events occur at the meso-gamma (2-20 km) scale as defined by Orlanski (1975) and may be difficult to distinguish from thunderstorm. Das et al. (2003b) studied a cloudburst event that occurred in the
(a) TRMM (00:27 IST)

Figure 3.8: Observed (TRMM) location of (a) intense rainfall vertical of hydrometeors (b) RNW, Fig 3.8: Observed (TRMM) location of (a) intenseand rainfall and cross-section vertical cross-section of (c) CLW, (d) snow, and (e) iceCLW, during cloudburst on 16th 2003 (00:27 hydrometeors (b) RNW, (c) (d) a snow, and (e)event ice during aJuly cloudburst event IST). on
16th July 2003 (00:27 IST). 40

Himalayan region at Shillagarh village (Himanchal Pradesh) in the early hours of 16 July 2003. The storm lasted for less than half an hour, followed by flash floods that affected hundreds of people. Analysis of the numerically simulated cloudburst in the foothills of the Himalayas showed that the low-level convergence of south-easterlies and north-westerlies along the foothills coupled with vertical shear in wind and orographic uplifting lead to a short-lived, intensely precipitating convective storm (cloudburst) steered by the mean flow and traveling away from the foothills. Figure 3.8 shows the cloud hydrometeors observed by TRMM corresponding to the satellite pass made at 00:27 IST, close to the cloudburst event. Figure 3.8a shows the instantaneous rainfall rate (mm/h) and the horizontal line indicates the axis of the vertical cross-section. The shading indicates the outline of the cloud. The measurements clearly indicate a deep cloud system, having a liquid-phase at lower altitudes and ice-phase at higher altitudes. Water content is mainly in the form of rainwater and snow. Cloud liquid-water content is an order smaller, and ice content is two orders smaller.

(a) Stage-1: 06:30 LT Seperate Cells

(b) Stage-2: 08:30 LT Merger cells and downpour

(c) Stage-3: 12:30 LT Dissipation

Figure 3.9. Conceptual model of a cloudburst (a) separate cells (b) merger of cells and downpour (c) Stage-3: 12:30 LT Dissipation

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Comparison between the simulated vertical structure of hydrometeors and TRMM observations showed that MM5 overestimates the hydrometeor content. Based on the numerical simulations, Das et al (2006) made a conceptual model of the cloudburst based on the development of the vertical shear, vertical motion and the moisture distribution. The conceptual model of the cloudburst is shown in Figure 3.9, which illustrates three stages in the lifecycle of the cloudburst. In the first stage, the two convective cells are separate and drift towards each other as part of the mean flow (Figure 3.9a). Isolated heavy rain occurs during this stage. In the second stage (Figure 3.9b), the two convective cells merge. Intensification follows due to strong wind shear and intense vertical motion. Heavy downpour and formation of the anvil also occurs. The storm moves rapidly southward due to strong steering flow. The third stage (Figure 3.9c) is one of dissipation in which the two merged cells form one single large cell, which drifts westward and the cloudburst ceases.

3.5 Fog Forecasting

Fog is defined as an obscurity near the surface layer of the atmosphere which is caused by a suspension of water droplets and is associated with visibility less than 1000 m. It affects many sections of the society. However effective fog forecasting with sufficient accuracy in resolution in forecasts of onset, duration and intensity (visibility) is still a major scientific challenge. Occurrence of fog during late night or early morning over the northern plains of India is common in winter (December and January). It generally starts from the month of October and continues till February. The impact and significance of fog ranges from disruption in aviation services, surface transportation and results to serious accidents caused in part by poor visibility. More than 675 aircrafts on an average depart and arrive daily from Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi (Jenamani, 2007), with the maximum number at night and morning hours when chances of dense fog are high during the peak winter months of December and January. Owing to this, many flights are either cancelled or diverted. It also causes a delay or stop in air traffic both locally and nationwide, resulting substantial monetary loss to the commercial airlines. Agriculture, train services and surface transport are also severely affected due to dense fog over the region. The thick blanket of fog remains till the afternoon and sometimes shows no sign of abating for a few consecutive days. Day temperature also remains below 15C. The prediction of fog remains a difficult problem due to its dependence on micro-physical processes at mesoscale and synoptic scale. Despite considerable progress in the field of NWP, fog prediction by present operational NWP models remains a challenging problem. This is because of interaction of micro-physical and mesoscale processes with the boundary layer which, itself is influenced by the prevailing synoptic regime. Therefore, until recently most of the fog forecasting models were based on statistical methods (Madan et al., 2000; Roy Bhowmik, 2004). In order to study Fog occurrence and its prediction over Delhi metropolitan region, a pilot experiment was conducted by the IAF by setting up temporary observatories in and around Delhi during January 2005. Intensive observations were collected at half hourly intervals during the period. The method of prediction was based on the well known fact that Hydro-lapse provides useful information on occurrence of Fog and the

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Hydro-lapse can be accomplished with reasonably good success by using a value called the Cross-over Temperature. The Cross-over Temperature was defined as the lowest dew point temperature observed during the warmest part of the day. Conceptually, this represents the dew point temperature of the air at about 200 ft above ground level, since this is when the layer is the most mixed and uniform. For the purpose of obtaining forecast temperature, MM5 was run for 36 hours with two-way nesting of domains with horizontal resolution as 9 km and 3 km respectively and output was saved at half-hour interval. Forecast parameters comprised of minimum and maximum temperatures, time series of temperature, dew point depression and rainfall. After running the model, dew point depression at the lowest level (950 hPa) was plotted as time series of model output to verify whether meso-scale model resolves different parameters at that high temporal and spatial resolution. The results were found to be satisfactory. However, prediction of dissipation of Fog could not be done with much degree of confidence due to various limitations of the model. Based on a combination of dynamical (meso-scale) forecasting and an equation for visibility, C-MMACS has developed a fog forecasting technique in terms of onset, duration and visibility 24 hours in advance. For the period November 2005 to January 2007, hourly forecasts of fog (visibility) over Delhi were generated 24 hours in advance. The meso-scale model used was MM5. The model was interfaced to a visibility model. They examined and evaluated two types of fog and visibility models: in the first (diagnostic) model, formation of fog was only governed by thresholds in large-scale meteorological variables like wind and humidity. In the second (prognostic) model, a dynamical equation that allows persistence and dynamic dissipation described the evolution of fog and related change in visibility. For the 31-day evaluation period, the average errors in onset, duration and visibility were 2 hours, 1 hour and 165 meters, respectively for the 4:00-12:00 hour period. For the 13:00-22:00 hour period, the corresponding errors were smaller. Das et al. (2007c) made an attempt to simulate fog over Delhi using the high resolution observations collected during fog PILOT experiment of IAF in a mesoscale model (MM5). They simulated hourly visibility and different flight regulation categories (defined on the basis of cloud ceiling and visibility) using the MM5 model at 1 km resolution. They conducted several numerical experiments using different cloud microphysics, boundary layer parameterization schemes and four dimensional data assimilation. Figure 3.10 illustrates the simulated flight regulations during formation, peak and dissipating stages of fog over Delhi. The results are very encouraging.

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Initiation: 21UTC

Dense Fog: 00UTC

Dense Fog: 03UTC

Dissipation: 06UTC

Figure 3.10: Simulated flight regulation categories during initiation, peak and dissipation phases of fog over Delhi during 16-17 January 2005.

3.6 Mountain Weather Forecasting

Severe weather has more calamitous effect in the mountainous regions as the terrain is complex, development is poor and economy is fragile. Such weather systems occurring on small spatial-temporal scale invites application of models with fine grid resolution and observations from radars and satellites besides the conventional observations for forecasting and disaster mitigation (Das et al., 2003a). Northwest India and the Himalayan region are particularly prone to vagaries of severe weather claiming casualties every year. This region is influenced by WD, which severely affect life over the Himalayas, by inducing wide-spread rainfall,

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heavy snowfall, squall winds, hail and severe cold waves. Snow avalanches and land slides result on account of gale winds and heavy rain / snowfall. The ground frost during winter season affects agriculture. Owing to its unique geographical position, the Himalayan mountain range influences the weather and climate in various ways. It acts as a strong barrier for the circulation pattern, as a heat source in summer and heat sink in winter. Its varying snow cover and vegetation affects the monsoon rainfall. The surface boundary conditions of the Himalayas determine the performance of the monsoon rainfall, which has immense impact on water resources and agricultural production. Every year several people are killed and properties amounting to millions of Rupees are lost due to hazards related to weather over the mountains. Advance warning of adverse weather systems can prevent loss of valuable lives and properties. Recently, there has been many attempts on mountain weather forecasting using mesoscale models (Das, 2005; Srinivasan et al., 2005; Rajagopal and Iyengar, 2005). Das (2005) conducted numerical experiments using MM5 model by placing four inner domains at 10 km resolutions over Northwest Himalayas, Central Himalayas, Northeast Himalayas and the Western Ghat mountains on an experimental basis. Case studies of heavy rainfall events associated with the western disturbance and active monsoon conditions indicate that the model has a good capability to predict rainfall over the mountains for at least 48-72 hours in advance at high model resolutions. Studies of Srinivasan et al. (2005) shows that the MM5 model is useful in meeting the operational requirements specifically in the prediction of mountain weather. The model is useful in the prediction of atmospheric systems and snow avalanches over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir including Siachen area. However, the avalanche forecasting demands weather forecast information on a 1 km grid. Figure 3.11 illustrates an example of day-4 and day-5 precipitation predicted by MM5 model during 16-18 January 2002 associated with a western disturbance. Many stations in Western Himalaya reported moderate to rather heavy snow precipitation during the period 13-18 Jan 2002. The results show that the model was able to predict the snow storm successfully, 4-5 days in advance.

Figure 3.11: Precipitation predicted during 16-18 January 2002 (a) day-4, and (b) day-5 by the MM5c model over the Western Himalayas.

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3.7 Seasonal Forecasting/ Downscaling

It is well established that mesoscale models have pronounced skill in reproducing regional climate compared to global models. The long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall is very important for agriculture and socio-economic conditions of the sub-continent. The primary lacuna of present day GCMs for regional climate studies is their coarse spatial resolution and simple representation of physical processes (Giorgi et al., 1999; Houghton et al., 2001). It is very much insufficient to resolve the mesoscale atmospheric circulations, influenced by the regional climate forcing, for example, those forced by small-scale topography or surface heterogeneties including mountains, land-water contrast, urban effect and sub-synoptic phenomena. Also, the computing time required for running a uniform resolution GCM over high resolution grid mesh is more and thus has an unacceptable computational cost for the climate change simulations. The first advantage of regional mesoscale models is the affordable fine resolution over a limited area. This allows better representation of the surface forcing on the regional climate, and thus better scope for the regional climate predictions. Regional climate phenomena like orographic precipitation, lake effect precipitation, etc. that strongly responses to the changes in the global climate change are better represented by the RCMs. The various parameterization schemes incorporated in the RCMs add to the better representation of the reality. RCMs are able to simulate the variations in the climate due to the surface forcing better than the GCM. Bhaskar Rao et al. (2004) conducted regional climate simulation experiment of the Indian summer monsoon using the MM5. The model was integrated for four months starting from 1st May 1994 to study the monsoon during the months of June, July and August. Initial and boundary conditions used are from NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data available at 2.50 to the model resolution. The results indicated that significant features of the monsoon circulation such as the monsoon trough, heat low over northwest India and mesoscale precipitation patterns were well simulated. The model could simulate the march of precipitation belt corresponding to the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches of the monsoon system fairly well. However, the model could not simulate the advancement over northwest India where the mean rainfall is meager. Singh et al. (2007) studied the impact of different land-surface parameterization schemes for the simulation of monsoon circulation during the month of July for a normal monsoon year (1998). They studied three landsurface parameterization schemes namely, the NoaH, the Multi-layer soil model and the Pleim-Xiu schemes. Their results indicated that typical features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as strength of the low-level westerly jet, the cross-equatorial flow and the tropical easterly jet and the distribution of precipitation were better simulated by NoaH scheme. Over Indian region, the vegetation type and soil moisture undergoes rapid and significant variations specially during the southwest monsoon period. Moreover, India has a very diverse and complex topography throughout, influencing the climatic variation over varied temporal and spatial scales. In view of this and because of the importance of the land surface forcing, the accuracy of land-use information is important to obtain for accurate simulations. Recently, ISRO has generated monthly vegetation fraction from temporally filtered 10 day NDVI composite of SPOT Vegetation data over the Indian region (Shefali et al., 2003). Das

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et al. (2007b) made a detailed study on the simulations of the Indian summer monsoon during June, July, August, September (JJAS) for 5 years from 1998-2002 using two different types of vegetation data. One is the standard 25 categories of USGS vegetation fraction and the second is generated by ISRO, which was reaggregated/ regrouped to USGS 25 classes. Figure 3.12 illustrates the JJAS rainfall distributions simulated by MM5 using USGS and ISRO vegetation data for a good monsoon year 1998 and their differences from TRMM observations. Figure 3.13 presents the All-India area averaged total rainfall observed by TRMM and those simulated by MM5 and T80 models for both good monsoon year 1998 and a bad monsoon year 2002. Analysis of all the results shows that the ISRO vegetation has a positive effect on the forecasts. It performed consistently better over Northeastern region and along the western coast. It also simulated JJAS rainfall better than USGS, with lower RMSE in both good and bad monsoon years.

Figure 3.12: Mean Rainfall (cm/ day) simulated by MM5 model for JJAS-1998 for (a) USGS, (b) ISRO and the difference (cm) of the forecast rainfall from TRMM for (c) USGS and (d) ISRO

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A ll India A rea Averaged Rainfall (cm) - 1998

50 45 40 Rainfall (cm) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 J un e July M o n th A ugust

TRM M FC-USGS FC-ISR O T 80

Sep t

All India A rea A ver aged Rainfall (cm) - 2002

40 35 30 Rainfall (cm) 25 20 15 10 5 0 J un e J uly M on th A ugust

TRM M FC-USGS FC-ISR O T 80

Sept

All India Ar ea Averaged JJA S Rainfall (cm)

160 140 120 Rainfall (cm) 100 80 60 40 20 0 19 98 M on th 200 2

T RM M FC-USG S FC-ISR O T 80

Figure 3.13: Monthly (upper and middle plot) and JJAS (lower plot) area averaged total rainfall observed by TRMM and simulated rainfall over All-India by MM5 and T80 models.

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3.8 Air pollution/ Nuclear Emergency Response System

One of the important applications of mesoscale atmospheric models is to study the urban air pollution transport problems. The pollution transport models require meteorological parameters as inputs at high resolution. The MM5 has been widely used for such applications. In India, the BARC, Mumbai and the IGCAR, Kalpakkam run the MM5 based on the boundary conditions provided by the NCMRWF operational model and use the outputs to run their dispersion model FLEXPART. The models provides 48 hour forecast of the local weather and plume dispersion due to hypothetical air borne releases over an area of 100 km2 around Kalpakkam region (Srinivas et al., 2006). The daily forecasts consist of a set of important parameters like sea level pressure, surface wind, temperature, humidity, rainfall and the plume dispersion forecast in terms of

Figure 3.14: Dispersion simulation using FLEXPART model using meteorological predictions from the MM5 model.

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concentration and different forms of radioactive dose (Figure 3.14). Detailed validation is however required for the intended dispersion prediction during radiological emergencies.

3.9 Cloud-resolving scale simulations

The cloud resolving models (CRM) have resolutions fine enough to represent individual cloud elements and space-time domains large enough to encompass many clouds and their life-times (Cotton et al., 1982; Tao and Simpson, 1984; Tao et al., 1987; Redelsperger et al, 1988). They are also known as cloud systemresolving models (CRSMs). The CRSMs have been successfully used to simulate the local severe storms

Figure 3.15: Time mean vertical profiles of (a) cloud liquid water, CLW (b) rain water, RNW (c) ICE (d) SNOW (e) graupel, GRAP and (f) radiative heating tendency averaged over the domain (68-75 longitude and 16-25 latitude) at 2 km resolution obtained using different cloud microphysics parameterization schemes.

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(Doswell, 2002; Cotton and Anthes, 1989). The MM5 has been used for different applications at cloud resolving scale by several investigators. Su et al. (1999) used the MM5 model at 2 km resolution to study the TOGA-COARE convective systems. Das (2003b) used the MM5 model at cloud resolving scale (1 km) to study the case of a heavy rainfall episode over northern India surrounding Delhi. An accurate initial condition with dynamically-balanced atmospheric state is crucial for cloud-systemresolving simulations. Under-resolved explicit dynamics and the relationship of under-resolved dynamics to convective parameterizations is an emerging issue in high-resolution prediction models in convective conditions (Moncrieff et al. 2005). In order to study the macro-dynamics and cloud-microphysical structures of the convective system, Das et al. (2007a) used the MM5 at 2 km grid-resolution over a domain of 600 km x 600 km to study the cloud cluster properties associated with a heavy rainfall episode during 26-28 June 2002 over the west coast of India during the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX). They simulated vertical profiles of cloud liquid water, rain water, ice, snow, graupel and radiative heating tendency using four different cloud-microphysics parameterizations. These fields are shown in Figure 3.15.

Figure 3.16: Time mean vertical profiles of (a) Rain water, RNW (b) cloud liquid water,CLW (c) SNOW, (d) ICE, and (e) latent heating rate averaged over the domain (69-730 E and 19-240 N) obtained from TRMM during 26-28 June 2002

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The simulated hydrometeor profiles match fairly well with the domain averaged time mean observed profiles by TRMM (2A12 products) shown in Figure 3.16. The profile of cloud liquid water had a maximum in the lower troposphere and a secondary maximum in the middle troposphere. The maximum values of ice, snow and graupel were in the upper and middle troposphere. Their results indicated that the hydrometeor profiles observed by TRMM are usually higher than the simulated values. The profile of the total condensate showed maximum value in the upper troposphere implying dominance of ice, snow and graupel, and presence of deep clouds with anvils during the depression.

3.10 Cloud Seeding Experiments

Understanding of cloud microphysical processes is very essential for rain enhancement programs. The efficiency with which clouds produce rain at the surface varies greatly. The subject of cloud seeding for rain enhancement can be considered as a part of the cloud microphysical studies. The potential for increase in rainfall using cloud seeding is strongly dependent on the cloud microphysics (size and concentration of water droplets and ice particles inside clouds) and dynamics (forces affecting air motions in and around clouds) of the clouds that are being seeded. The microphysics in turn dependent on background aerosol levels, because it is the aerosol particles that attract water vapor to form cloud droplets, and in cold clouds, ice particles. Furthermore, the types and concentrations of aerosol particles can be influenced by trace gases (i.e., air pollution). Given these dependencies, the microphysics of clouds can differ significantly from one geographical region to another, and even between seasons in the same region. In some instances, clouds may not be suitable for seeding, or the frequency of occurrence of suitable clouds may be too low to warrant the investment in a cloud seeding program. Numerical cloud models can be used to conduct sensitivity experiments and test hypotheses for weather modification (Orville, 1996). In the cloud seeding experiments, the key questions are 1) Identification of clouds that are amenable to seeding; 2) How, when and where to seed? Some clouds will rain no matter what you do. Other clouds will not rain, regardless of what you do. Somewhere in between lies a range of clouds that might be modified. Issues related to these tasks can be answered by conducting sensitivity experiments using numerical cloud models. For example, studies have shown that the seeding could increase precipitation from orographic clouds when the 500 mb temperature was warmer than 210 C. Seedability of clouds would decrease with decreasing cloud temperature. Similarly, the importance of cloud liquid water as an indicator of seedability has been very well recognized. Cloud models can address issues such as seedability for precipitation enhancement, optimal ice crystal concentrations, seed drop size, liquid water content, updraft speed and level for seeding. The cloud scale models can also be used for testing the hypotheses by conducting numerical experiments. Such models help to sort out the several possibilities of cloud seeding. They offer the only opportunity to see the effects of cloud seeding on identical cloud situations, one seeded and one not seeded. Cloud and mesoscale models with realistic seeding routines and ice processes should be applied during all

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phases of the planning, conduct and evaluation of the field programs. Some of the questions that can be addressed by the cloud scale/ mesoscale models are for example, 1. Can seeding of individual clouds within a cloud group lead to a more favorable environment through the redistribution of heat, moisture and momentum to facilitate the development of successive generations of clouds? 2. Can seeding of individual clouds within a cloud field result in suppression of neighboring clouds or, in the creation of new or bigger and longer lasting clouds through the process of downdraft interaction or cloud merging? 3. What is the mode and mechanism of interaction between a seeded cloud field and the mesoscale environment? In India cloud seeding experiments have been carried out since 1957. Since then many state governments including Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka have been attempting the cloud seeding experiments to enhance rainfall in their states. NCMRWF had provided inputs on the cloud liquid water content and potential areas of rainfall during the cloud seeding experiments conducted by the Maharashtra government in 2004. The inputs based on mesoscale models were found to be very useful in deciding the areas for cloud seeding. However, the operational programmes carried out in the last few years by various state governments were not scientifically planned and, no observations of environment as well as clouds were taken (Vijay Kumar and Kulkarni, 2007). Hence no conclusions could be drawn regarding the impact of the seeding. Thus, mesoscale models at the cloud resolving scales can be used to address issues such as seedability for precipitation enhancement programme in future.

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CHAPTER 4 MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION

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Introduction
Data assimilation is the process by which observations enter a numerical weather prediction model. It provides a safeguard against the model error growth. With the advent of new observation sources, such as satellites, radar and many new remote sensing technology, meteorological observations are now available at very high resolutions. The high resolution observations are not fully utilized if the resolution of a model is very coarse such as in global models. Mesoscale data assimilation is required for improving the forecast skill of the mesoscale weather phenomena. The mesoscale models MM5 and WRF have modules for data assimilation based on 3 dimensional variational technique (3DVAR). Observations can be integrated in to the model either by nudging or, by variational assimilation. The two methods are briefly described here. 4.1 Observation Nudging Four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is a technique by which observations are incorporated in the model running with full moist physics (Stauffer and Seaman, 1994; Davis et al., 2001). Observational measurements keep the model close to the true state and the model atmosphere tends to dynamical consistency. This alleviates errors in the initial analysis as well as deficiencies in the model physics (i.e., convection, boundary layer and micro-physics parameterizations). There are two methods: i) analysis or grid-nudging and ii) observational or station nudging. In the analysis nudging, Newtonian relaxation terms are added to the prognostic equations for wind, temperature, and water vapor using the equation
( ) / obs t

where is a prognostic variable (u, v, t, q), the domain-averaged quantity, the subscript obs indicate observation and is the relaxation timescale. This procedure rapidly relaxes the simulated domain-averaged variable toward observations when is small. The observational nudging is carried out by interpolating the analyzed variables to the observation locations. Many studies have been carried out in India utilizing the analysis nudging (Bhaskar Rao and Hari Prasad, 2005; Mukhopadhyay et al., 2005; Routray et al., 2005; Xavier et al., 2006; Sandeep et al., 2006; Das et al., 2006ab).

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Figure 4.1: Wind at 850 hPa on 00 UTC 28 June 2002 (a) with FDDA, (b) control without FDDA, and (c) METEOSAT cloud imagery.

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Figure 4.1 (obtained from Das et al. 2007a) presents some results on the impact of FDDA in correcting the initial position of vortex that caused heavy rainfall over Gujarat region during 26-28 June 2002. The actual position of the system is illustrated by the satellite cloud imagery shown in Figure 4.1c. The analyzed position without FDDA is shown in Figure 4.1b. It shows that the centre of the vortex shifted far away from the actual position. The rainfall forecast (not shown here) based on this initial condition was much less and displaced from the observed location. However, when the FDDA was performed, the initial position of the vortex was corrected and brought close to the observed location (Figure 4.1). Consequently, the rainfall forecasts also improved substantially. The results of Das et al. (2007a) also demonstrated that the best results were obtained only when the FDDA was operated for a sufficiently long period, i.e. 10 days in their case. The nudging is required for a longer period to achieve proper circulations in tropical regions where the large-scale balance is weaker than in the mid-latitudes. These results emphasize the importance of mesoscale data assimilation for real-time prediction of intense precipitating events in the tropics.

4.2 Variational Assimilation

The basic goal of three dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR) system is to produce an optimal estimate of the true atmospheric state at any desired analysis time through iterative solution of a prescribed cost-function (Ide et al. 1997).
1 1 ( x x b )T B 1 ( x x b ) ( y y o )T ( E F ) 1 ( y y o ) 2 2 where x is the analysis state , xb , the background yo is the observation, B, E and F are the background, J ( x) J b J 0

observation (instrumental) and representivity error covariance matrices respectively. Representivity error is an estimate of inaccuracies introduced in the observation operator H used to transform the gridded analysis x to observation space y=Hx. The 3DVAR system consists of four components (Barker et al., 2003, 2004): (1) Background preprocessing, (2) Observation pre-processing and quality control, (3) Variational analysis, and (4) Updation of boundary conditions. Details of these components are given in Barker et al. (2004). Before proceeding to the variational analysis, a background error field of the model is required. The background error fields are usually calculated based on the NMC method (Parish and Derber 1992). Four dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) introduced in the mid 80s has grown from an initial theoretical formulation based on optimal control theory to highly complex and successful implementations in operational numerical weather prediction centers around the world. About a decade after the introduction of 4DVAR, an original suggestion made by Evensen culminated with an attractive data assimilation procedure now known as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). In the last decade, an increased interest in this approach has led to significant improvement in its theoretical foundations and practical implementations. Although 4DVAR and EnKF can be written in similar symbolic form, their specific theoretical and implementation limitations are

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of high interest and work is needed to clarify the methodologies in the face of complex operational implementations that are currently envisaged. The methodology to generate members of an ensemble is an important issue. Presently, a number of procedures are followed at different operational centres. In this method, perturbations are generated through 4DVAR assimilation with different information (observation) content, either through a variation in the frequency of observations or a variation in the length of assimilation window. Generally a representative non-linear system, viz. the three variables Lorenz system is adopted (Gouda et al., 2005). It shows that ensemble forecasts generated through 4DVAR assimilation have less error than those generated from initial conditions (with similar amplitude of perturbation) adopted arbitrarily. Another advantage of the procedure is that it provides an (variable-specific) estimate of the maximum allowed amplitude and spread of perturbations. The 4D-variational assimilation methodology is one of the most advanced assimilation techniques today, and only a handful of operational centres (C-MMACS, NCMRWF and, IITD) have succeeded in implementing it. Presently, research is in progress to implement 4D-Var system in the mesoscale models.

4.3 Assimilation of Satellite observations

The latest generation of satellite sensors provide wide variety of measurements of the atmosphere. Remotely-sensed data are becoming the major information source of the state of the atmosphere. It is important to assimilate these data in the assimilation system, so that better initial conditions (analysis) can be prepared for NWP models. Different types of satellite observations are presently being assimilated in India on routine basis at operational centres like the NCMRWF and IMD in their global and regional models. As the resolutions of the latest generation of satellites are increasing, they are boon to the mesoscale modelling studies. Observations from different satellite sensors (i.e., ATOVS, SSMI, QSCAT, MODIS, AMSU, GPS, etc) have been utilised for mesoscale modelling studies in India (Das Gupta et al., 2004; Xavier et al., 2006; Sandeep et al., 2006; Roy Bhowmik et al., 2006b). More recently, attempts have also been made to assimilate the satellite radiances and GPS observations in the mesoscale model (George and Barker, 2007). Since satellites provide a huge amount of atmospheric soundings, assimilation of these data has become an essential component of modern data assimilation systems. Improvements in the accuracy of the analyzed and forecasted fields from leading operational weather forecasting centers testify the advantage of using satellite radiance data compared to derived products in the assimilation system. The success of radiance assimilation largely depends on the observation error tuning, quality control and bias correction of the observations. Detailed quality control procedures are included in WRF-Var. Currently, only clear-sky radiances are assimilated. Radiances from precipitating areas and cloudy regions (cloud liquid water above 0.2 mm) are not included in the assimilation. Other quality control checks include non-use of radiance data over mixed surfaces and elevated surfaces for (some channels), removal of data from the scan edge, avoiding channels close to surface and above the model top etc. To study the impact of the radiance assimilation over Indian region, George and Barker (2007) made a 10 day assimilation forecast experiment

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from 01 August to 10 August, 2005 using WRF model. The assimilation was done in 6 hourly cycles. All GTS observations were used in the assimilation in addition to AMSU-A radiance data from channel 5 to 9 of NOAA-15 and NOAA-16 satellites. These AMSU-A channels represent the temperature structure of the atmosphere roughly between 4 to 20 km from surface (weighting function of channel 5 to 9 peaks between 4 and 20 km). The observation cut off time was chosen as 2 hours. Two sets of analysis and forecasts were prepared, one with radiance (radiance + GTS observation, hereafter radiance analysis) and another with only GTS observations (hereafter no_radiance analysis). At every 00 UTC and 12 UTC, 48 hr forecasts were made. NCEP-FNL data was used for the preparation of initial and boundary conditions. Figure 4.2 depicts the mean verification of radiance analysis and forecast for 06, 12, 24 and 48 hr forecasts. The figure shows that the forecast error growth is maximum in the first 6 hr forecast. This indicates the need for tuning of the WRF model (with different physics/dynamics options) for the Indian region. Proper tuning of the WRF model over Indian region may improve the first guess and hence the analysis.

Figure 4.2. Radiance analysis & forecast mean RMSE and Bias profiles for u-wind, v-wind, temperature and water vapor mixing ratio.

Similarly, the constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites (LEO) launched in 2006 under the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) mission, provides large number of radio occultation (RO) soundings around the globe daily. The phase and the amplitude measurements during the time of occultation (LEO satellites with respect to GPS satellites) can be used to derive the vertical profiles of the bending angle. The refractivity profiles are then computed from bending angle through Abel inversion. Different COSMIC data products are available near real time in the COSMIC web site. Several NCAR

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studies indicate the positive impact of GPS refractivity data on the assimilation and forecast (i.e., Cucurull et al, 2006). Attempts have been made by George and Barker (2007) to assimilate the GPS refractivity observations in the WRF-Var system. The period from 28 June to 02 July, 2006 was chosen for the assimilation experiment with GPS COSMIC data (a deep depression was present in the Bay of Bengal from 02 to 05 July, 2006). Cyclic assimilation (6 hr cycle) were carried out with and without GPS data, to study the sensitivity of the GPS RO data over Indian region. Twenty four hour forecasts were made from 00 UTC analysis of both experiments. Since very few occultation observations (only 2 occultation profiles) were available during this period over the domain, they found no significant differences between the forecast experiments. However, Table 4.1 shows the RMSE of the refractivity data for OI (observation minus first guess) and AO (analysis minus observation) during the assimilation period. The table indicates that the GPS refractivity data does make significant difference to the analysis fields. More assimilation-forecast experiments are required to assess the impact of GPS data over Indian region. Table 4.1: RMSE of OI and AO of GPS COSMIC refractivity assimilation Time 06 UTC 28 Jun, 2006 18 UTC 01 Jul, 2006 Observation Number 23 20 RMSE OI (Refractivity) 1.7911 2.2890 RMSE AO (Refractivity) 0.9788 0.416

4.4 Assimilation of Radar observations

Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations are becoming very important for assimilation in the high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction models. The conventional observations at surface from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and upper air measurements such as Radio-sonde, Pilot balloons, etc are usually not available at high resolution. But, as the resolution of the model increases, we need observations at finer resolution to initialize the model. Thus, the DWR and the satellite observations play an important role in mesoscale data assimilation. Sun and Crook (1994, 1997) used adjoint technique and a variational Doppler radar analysis system (VDRAS) to retrieve three-dimensional wind, temperature, pressure and microphysical fields in a gust front based on observations from a single Doppler radar and a convective scale model. With the availability of multiple Doppler radars researchers have employed adjoint technique and cloud model to derive the thermodynamic and microphysical fields. The DWR provides observations of radial velocity and reflectivity with a spatial resolution of a few hundred meters every 3 to 10 minutes and, is practically the only equipment capable of sampling the four-dimensional structure of storm-scale flows. The last one decade has witnessed growing applications of DWR in NWP as they have capability of measuring radial winds and hydrometeor profiles inside clouds, besides providing digital reflectivity fields. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has installed four DWRs at Chennai, Kolkata, Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam.
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Three more DWRs are operated one by ISRO at SHAR and two by IAF at Patiala and Gujarat region. Das et al. (2006b), Abhilash et al. (2007) used wind fields retrieved from the Kolkata & Chennai DWR in a mesoscale data assimilation system. They studied three strong convective events each over Kolkata and Chennai. The model (MM5) was run on double nested domains at 30 and 10 km resolutions. Keeping all model physics same, three experiments were conducted for each case. In the control experiment (CTRL) the model was initialized using global analysis of NCMRWF T80 model. In the second experiment (3DVAR_NoDWR) conventional and non-conventional data were used in the six-hour assimilation cycle with coldstart at 00 UTC of the previous day. The third experiment (3DVAR_DWR) was same as second, but the DWR wind data was also included in the assimilation cycle. Results show many encouraging features. Figure 4.3 illustrates the reflectivity MAX(Z) observed by DWR at Kolkata on 6th May 2005. Severe thunderstorm lashed Kolkata region on the day. The simulated rainfalls obtained from the three experiments are shown in Figure 4.4 along with observed rainfall from TRMM. The diagrams show that the rainfall distributions were close to observations in the third experiment when the DWR observations were assimilated in the model. The intensity and organization of convective systems were also better predicted in the second and third experiments. Figure 4.5 presents the root mean square error (RMSE) of rainfall with respect to the domain averaged TRMM observations for the three experiments. The RMSE were computed based on the composite rainfall simulations made for the six cases over Kolkata and Chennai. The diagram shows very encouraging results. It shows that the RMSE score of rainfall is better through out the forecast length when 3DVAR is used. The forecasts are further improved up to 30 hours when the data assimilation is carried out with DWR observations.

Figure 4.3: Reflectivity MAX(Z) observed by DWR at 16-17 UTC, 6 May 2005 over Kolkata

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Figure 4.4: Simulated rainfall obtained from the three experiments (CTRL_GSFC), 3DVAR_NODWR) and 3DVAR_DWR. Observed rainfall from TRMM are also shown.

RM SE
0.4
GSFC

R ain fall (cm)

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42

TDVAR DW R

48

H OUR S

Figure 4.5: RMSE of rainfall obtained from the three experiments CTRL_GSFC, 3DVAR_NoDWR (denoted by TDVAR) and 3DVAR_DWR.

Wind and reflectivity observations from the DWR are very valuable information that can be included in the analysis. During the past several years, capabilities have been developed to assimilate Doppler radial velocity and reflectivity data in the WRF-Var assimilation system (Xiao et al. 2005). The observations operator used in WRF-Var for Doppler radar radial velocity is

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where (u, v, w) are the components of the wind, (x, y, z) and (xi, yi, zi) are the radar location and observation location respectively. The terminal velocity vT is defined as

where,

and qr is the rainwater mixing ratio. The observation operator for the reflectivity (Z)

used in the WRF-Var is,

Partitioning of moisture (qr from q) during the iteration is done through warm rain process included in the WRF-Var. George and Barker (2007) assimilated the Doppler radar data from SHAR (13.6 N 80.2 E) using WRF-Var (This radar is Indias first indigenously made Doppler radar). Reflectivity and radial velocity data from 00 UTC of 29 October to 00 UTC of 30 October, 2006 were processed. Two 6 hourly assimilation cycle run from 06 UTC of 28 October to 00 UTC of 01 November 2006; one with radar data (radar + GTS) and another with no radar data (only GTS) were prepared. Twenty four hour forecasts were made at 00 UTC of 29, 30 and 31 October 2006. Figure 4.6 depicts the Doppler radar data (all data) at 0.5 elevation angle from a scan of 00 UTC of 29 October 2006. Figure 4.7 depicts the mean 00 UTC analysis and 24 hr forecast RMSE and BIAS against the observations. Results show that the differences in the RMSE and Bias values of radar and no_radar values are reduced in the forecast compared to analysis. However, these are preliminary results and many more experiments need to be carried out.

Figure 4.6: SHAR (13.6 N, 80.2 E) Doppler radar observation for reflectivity and radial velocity for 00 UTC 29 October (at elevation angle 0.5 deg).

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Figure 4.7: RMSE and Bias for u-wind, v-wind, temperature and mixing ratio profiles for Radar and No_Radar analysis and 24 hr forecast against observations.

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CHAPTER 6 RECOMMENDATIONS

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In India, the use of high resolution mesoscale models for the studies of atmospheric processes significantly increased during the last decade. This is because of the availability of these models on the web domain and with very good documentation and user support. MM5 and WRF models available from NCAR fall into this category, whereas RAMS, ARPS and other models had limited application. A review of the application of these models by various research groups in India demonstrate considerable skill of these mesoscale models in predicting regional/ local circulations driven by topography and land surface variations. Such forecasts were often not possible by operational models due to then coarse resolution (Davis et al 1999; Das 2003). A basic query is Does the high resolution mesoscale models produce better forecasts that are statistical significant? Though the available studies over Indian region have their limitation with respect to the large number of numerical experiments required for statistical evaluation, some of these studies (Das et al 2007) indicate that the present mesoscale models have improved mesoscale prediction and need to be further improved. A critical examination of the materials presented in this report indicates that the mesoscale atmosphere phenomena such as tropical cyclones, severe local storm, mountain weather, fog and western disturbances etc. are to be studied with specific strategy keeping in view of the associated problems of their understanding and prediction. There is also a general consensus that human resources development to work in these specific, special applications is to be improved. In the following, recommendations are suggested for each of the mesoscale atmospheric phenomena followed by the general requirements. At the national level the problems regarding the understanding and prediction of the various atmospheric phenomena such as tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall events and severe local storms are to be identified and financial support may be provided to the research groups who are willing to undertake one of the specific identified problems. The outcome from each of these groups could be reviewed periodically (i.e.) every six months. DST/MoES should also overview the utilization of these results to be absorbed into operational prediction actively.

1. Tropical cyclones
The prediction of the intensification and track of the tropical cyclones is an old age problem and continuous efforts are being made for their improvements. Since the evolution and movement of the tropical cyclones involve interaction of different scales of motion i.e. from the cloud scale to synoptic scale circulation, the researchers have a strong opinion that it is desirable to use models with a high domain resolution of ~ 110 km. The available mesoscale models include non-hydrostatic dynamics and so can be used with resolution of less than 10 km. The problems concerning the tropical cyclones are; i. What should be the domain size and domain resolution? Can they be optimized? ii. What are the advantages and disadvantages of the single and nested domain approaches? iii. What is the sensitivity of model prediction to different hypotheses that form the basis of the parameterization of cumulus convection, PBL and cloud microphysics? Some of the earlier studies show

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iv.

v. vi.

vii.

viii.

significant sensitivity to the combination of these schemes. This has to be further explored to have results which are statistically significant. Can the model predict the sudden intensification? The role of latent heat/ sensible heat energy transfer from the ocean to the tropical cyclones and the dynamical interaction of the radius of deformation and convection are to be critically examined. Why are the present models not able to predict cyclogenesis? Is it possible to identify the requirements in terms of model and data? What is the predictability of the developing and non-developing disturbances? It is generally noticed that the models tend to overestimate the intensification of weaker cyclones and underestimate the stronger cyclones. What is the role of bogus vortex in the prediction of the intensification and the movement? Can the models do away with bogus vortex? If bogus vortex is necessary, how to design it? All the available methods of bogus vortex design are to be examined and critically evaluated. In this context, some of the recently available JRA-25 Reanalysis are to be studied as this analysis has a special feature of the inclusion of tropical cyclone circulation. Observations associated with tropical cyclones need considerable improvement as these forms and intensify over oceans. It is recommended that the Government of India should make efforts to collect data in tropical cyclones through reconnaissance flights and drop-sondes, ocean buoys.

2. Heavy rainfall events, Off-shore vortices and Mid- Tropospheric cyclones

In recent times, the occurrences of heavy and extreme precipitation events are noted to increase which is attributed to global warming (Goswami 2006). The Mumbai rainfall event with the occurrence of 94 cm within the duration of 12 hours and subsequent heavy rainfall events recorded at Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad etc. have drawn the attention of scientific community as well as administration. Since these heavy precipitation events are regionalized (localized), the model strategy is to be reviewed and evaluated. Some of the important points for consideration are: i. What should be the domain resolution and domain size? For example, the model resolution is to be between 1-5 km. Since the models cannot be run at the desired high resolution in operational mode, the possibilities of the impending extreme precipitation events from the mesoscale models are to be evaluated. Once the possibilities are identified, special model runs can be made at the desired high resolution. ii. What are the parameterization schemes of convection and cloud microphysics and their combination that may provide the best prediction? The sensitivity of the prediction with respect to real time land use and high resolution terrain is to be established. iii. The choice of the parameterization schemes of convection, PBL and cloud microphysics are to be examined and evaluated. Is it possible to arrive at the best choice of these parameterized schemes? Since the prediction of heavy rainfall events over the metropolitan cities are to be given primary
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importance due to the socio-economic impact, mesoscale data observations over the identified metropolitan cities are to be established. Experiments with adaptive observations are to be carried out to optimize the number and locations of the observation stations. AWS network can be established based on these experiments. iv. The methods of data assimilation for AWS and other remote sensing platform are to be critically examined and evaluated. For example, the methods of 3DVAR, 4DVAR and FDDA available with MM5 and WRF models are to be thoroughly studied.

3. Severe local storms

Severe local storms are short lived, violent disturbances associated with strong gusty winds and with or without rain. Since their spatial scale is few kilometers and time scale is few hours, separate model strategy is to be evolved to understand their life cycle and predictability. Apart from MM5 and WRF models, RAMS and ARPS may also provide good prediction. i. What should be the domain size and resolution? Is it necessary that the resolution should be few hundred meters to 1 kilometer? ii. What is the lead time with which models can predict the intensification of the system? iii. What is the critical input data that will be crucial for triggering the convection? What are the data assimilation methods that can assimilate the thermodynamic structure of the environment? iv. How best are the models able to simulate their structure and characteristics? v. The parameterization of cloud microphysics is very important and all the available cloud microphysics schemes are to be examined and evaluated.

4. Western disturbances, Mountain weather, Avalanches and Cold Waves

At the present time western disturbances are well predicted due to their extra-tropical nature. Though their characteristics and movement could be predicted, there is a need for improvement in the prediction of these WD which cause heavy snowfall in the complex terrain regions of Himalayas and neighborhood. These are also known to cause cold waves and the prediction of cold waves will improve with the prediction of WDs. i. The sensitivity of model prediction to the complex terrain region is to be studied. The model resolution may have to be ~1 km for proper mesoscale prediction. Sensitivity experiments to model resolution are to be performed and evaluated. ii. Data network over the Himalayan region is to be expanded. Since this is a sensitive region, SASE of DRDO, NCMRWF and IMD can participate in data collection and model experimentation. Already scientists at SASE have started modeling experiments and further experiments may be encouraged. iii. The model prediction capability of the rate and amount of snowfall prediction is to be evaluated.
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5. Fog
Fog is localized phenomena but known to be influenced by certain synoptic situation such as western disturbances. The occurrence (i.e.) onset and duration of fog over metropolitan cities assume lot of importance due to their affect on visibility affecting the flight operations and train services. Since the prediction of fog over metropolitan cities is of primary importance, their prediction strategy could be combined with those of heavy rainfall events. The same mesonetwork that is proposed for heavy rainfall events could be used for the prediction of fog. i. What should be the optimized model resolution for the prediction of fog? ii. Since boundary layer and surface processes play an important role, the sensitivity to different schemes of soil processes and PBL schemes is to be examined and evaluated. iii. The problem of data assimilation is as of the prediction of heavy precipitation events. iv. The presently available empirical models of fog prediction are to be critically examined using the model derived variables.

6. Data and Assimilation

For improvements in mesoscale predictions, the data availability over the regions of interest should improve. AWS network has to be established over the entire country in phases, starting with metropolitan cities. The radio-sonde observation stations are also to be increased with at least one station in a 200 km radius. Accurate high resolution surface data of soil moisture, vegetation fraction, land use and topography for the Indian region are to be made available to the atmospheric modelling scientists. The available data assimilation methods with MM5, WRF and other models have to be extensively studied for each of the different mesoscale atmospheric phenomena. The impact of the assimilation of wind, temperature and wind are to be studied in detail. Emphasis has to be given for the assimilation of ever increasing satellite and radar observations into the models. The methods of 3DVAR, 4DVAR and FDDA are to be reviewed and evaluated. Each of these methods involves specification of parameters derived from historical data and experiments. Experiments are to be performed to improve these parameters as suitable for the Indian region. The problem of data assimilation is to be viewed as a huge task due to the increasing availability of data from remote sensing platforms. Specific groups in the country are to be identified and entrusted with specific tasks of the validation and improvement of the existing methods. NCMRWF may take a lead role in this regard.

7. Human Resources
For the successful implementation of the above mentioned mesoscale modeling program, highly skilled human resources are being made available. DST/MoES have to implement specific programs to attract promising young scientists at the post graduation level and induce them into atmospheric modeling research. This may be done through allocation of separate fellowships and monitoring the awardees. Special programme may also
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be envisaged through which senior scientists, professors may visit different institutions to deliver lectures on the challenges in atmospheric and oceanic sciences and provide counseling to the young student community. Regular training/workshops should be organized annually at identified institutions to provide theoretical and practical training on the current status of the mesoscale modeling and data assimilation problems. It is also recommended that computer software professionals be trained to work on weather models so that they may be able to develop and improve the computer codes of different models as suitable for computer architectures. Similarly, experts in numerical techniques and mathematical analysis should be inducted in atmospheric modeling, so that they may be able to make fundamental contributions to the development of dynamics and numeric parts of the model.

8. Computational Resources
The application of mesoscale atmospheric models requires high performance computing resources at as many as possible institutions in the country where the related experiments are to be carried out. The computing power required to run the mesoscale models with data assimilation, experimentation and validation may be of the order of 1-100 Teraflops. The disc storage space necessary to store the inputs and outputs may be of the order of 10-100 GB/day. Most of the models such as MM5 and WRF are available with coding structure suitable for parallel processing. The present day technology is able to provide near super computing power through the design of a cluster. TIFR and CDAC have already produced super computing power through cluster design and CSIR-NAL produced a low and 8-nodes parallel cluster suitable for non-real time research application. As per this report about 12 groups are actively involved in the use of mesoscale models and so the high performance computer (HPC) facility at these centers may be augmented. It is also desirable to encourage new groups of other institutions to enter into this specific program. A centralized supercomputing facility may also be established at one of the institutions (such as NCMRWF), which may provide remote log-in access to all the universities and scientific communities in the country to facilitate research on mesoscale atmospheric modeling. This computer may have several thousand processors with large mass storage device, and may be exclusively used for sharing within the research communities in the country.

9. Field Experiments
Regular field experiments may be conducted similar to the STORM program of India to collect intensive observations of specific mesoscale phenomena. The special observations thus collected may be utilized for understanding the structure, mechanisms and modeling of the phenomena. The country must procure dedicated aircraft fitted with meteorological instrumentations, mobile Doppler radars, and other equipments on mobile platforms for utilization in the field experiments.

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10. Targeted numerical experimentation and Ensemble forecasting

The research community may collectively conduct numerical experiments on specific mesoscale phenomena by utilizing fixed set of initial & boundary conditions. The outputs of the experiments may be discussed at regular seminars and, the results may be used to improve the models. This will avoid duplicity and focus the scientific community. Ensemble forecasting experiments may be conducted to provide probabilistic forecasting of severe weather events.

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List of Acronyms
AFCNWP AMSU ARPS ARMEX ATOVS AU BARC BOBMEX CEO C-MMACS COSMIC CRM CSRM DRDO DST DWR ECMWF ETA FDDA GAME GCM GEWEX GFS GPS GTS HRM IAF IGCAR IIT IITM IMD ISRO Air Force Centre for Numerical Weather Prediction Advance Microwave Sounding Unit Advanced Regional Prediction System Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment Advance TIROS Observation Vertical Sounder Andhra University Bhabha Atomic Research Centre Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment Chief Executive Officer Centre for Mathematical Modelling & Computer Simulations Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate Cloud Resolving Model Cloud System Resolving Model Defence Research & Development Organization Department of Science & Technology Doppler Weather Radar European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ETA coordinate mesoscale model Four dimensional data assimilation GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment General Circulation Model Global Energy & Water Cycle Experiment Global Forecasting System Global Positioning System Global telecommunication System High Resolution Model Indian Air Force Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research Indian Institute of Technology Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Indian Meteorological Department Indian Space Research Organization

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LAM LASPEX LEO LMD MODIS MoES MONEX MM5 NASA NCAR NCEP NCMRWF NDVI NMC NOAA NWP PBL

Limited Area Model Land-Surface Process Experiment Low Earth Orbit Laboratoire de Mtorologie Dynamique Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-Radiometer Ministry of Earth Sciences Monsoon Experiment PSU/ NCAR 5th generation Mesoscale Model National Aeronautics & Space Administration National Centre for Atmospheric Research National Centre for Environmental Prediction National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Normalized Difference Vegetation Index National Meteorological Centre National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Numerical Weather Prediction Planetary Boundary Layer

PRWONAM Prediction of Regional Weather using Observational Meso-Network and Atmospheric Modelling PSU QSCAT RAMS RCM RMC RMSE RO RSM SASE SHAR SPL SPOT SSMI TIROS TKE Pennsylvania State University Quick bird-satellite Scatterometer Regional Atmospheric Modelling System Regional Climate Model Regional Meteorological Centre Root Mean Square Error Radio Occultation Regional Spectral Model Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment Sriharikota High Altitude range Space Physics Laboratory Systeme Pour lObservation de la Terre Special Sensor Microwave Imager Television Infrared Observation Satellite Turbulent Kinetic Energy
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TOGA-COARE

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission UK Meteorological Office United States Geological Survey Universal Time Convention Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre Weather Research & Forecasting 3 Dimensional VARiational assimilation system 4 Dimensional VARiational assimilation system

TRMM UKMO USGS UTC VDRAS VSSC WRF 3DVAR 4DVAR

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List of Contributors and Institutions

1 2 3 Dr. Someshwar Das Prof. D.V Bhaskar Rao Dr. H. R. Hatwar Dr. Y. V. Rama Rao 4 Sri Shivhare Sri P. K. Arora 5 Dr. P. Mukhopadhyay Sri J. Sanjay 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Prof. U.C. Mohanty Prof. A. Chandrasekhar Dr. K. Srinivasan Dr. D. Bala Subramanyam Dr. Prasant Goswami Dr. T.N. Venkatesh Dr. Lohar Dr. P. Sanjeeva Rao Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Chandigarh Space Physics Laboratory, Trivandrum Centre for Mathematical Modelling & Computer Simulations, Bangalore Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalapakkam Jadavapur University, Kolkata Department of Science & Technology (DST), Govt. of India, New Delhi Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune Indian Air Force National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida Andhra University, Visakhapatnam India Meteorological Department

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