<Show: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT> <Date: May 1, 2013> <Time: 18:30:00> <Tran: 050101cb.

118> <Type: SHOW> <Head: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for May 1, 2013, PBS> <Sect: News; Domestic> <Byline: Susie Gharib, Tyler Mathisen, Hampton Pearson, Bertha Coombs, Seema Mody, Jane Wells> <Guest: Randy Kroszner, Larry Haverty > <Spec: Business; Stock Markets; Wall Street; Economy; Federal Reserve; Policies; Employment and Unemployment; Insurance; Government> <Time: 18:30:00>

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Susie Gharib, brought to you by --

(COMMERCIAL AD)

SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Sell in May. That`s how investors kicked off the month, erasing about half of April`s gains.

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Pedal to the metal. The Fed sticks with its easy money policy and calls out Congress for weakening the economy. We`ll talk with former Federal Reserve Governor Randy Kroszner.

GHARIB: Testing, testing. With just five months to go, will the state`s new health exchanges be up and running in time for open enrollment?

We have all that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for this Wednesday, May 1st.

Good evening, everyone.

So, Tyler, the calendar changed and so did investor sentiment.

MATHISEN: In a big way, wiping out almost all of those April gains. The old saying, "Sell in May, and go away" did ring true on Wall Street today. Stocks fell sharply on more evidence of a slowdown in economic recovery.

The Dow tumbled to 138 points, the NASDAQ fell 29, and S&P was 500 down 14. Big driver for today`s sell-off: disappointing data on jobs, specifically the payroll firm ADP reported that 119,000 private sector jobs were added to the economy in April. And that was far fewer than the 160,000 or sot that economists had expected.

And March`s numbers were revised downward as well. And that is causing some concern about Friday`s big government report on payrolls and jobs.

The Institute for Supply Management`s read on U.S. manufacturing in April showed some modest growth, but it dropped to the slowest rate of growth so far this year. And construction spending during March fell nearly 2 percent, largely because of a pullback in government spending on new projects.

GHARIB: Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve knows that the U.S. economy still needs help. And so, policymakers announced today they are leaving interest rates unchanged near zero percent. Wrapping up a two-day meeting, the Fed also said it will continue its massive bond buying program to encourage more lending and spending. The Central Bank also said it`s ready to, quote, "increase or reduce" the pace of those purchases.

Hampton Pearson has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): At the Federal Reserve, monetary policymakers wrapped up a two-day meeting, renewing their pledge to keep interest rates at record lows and buying

billions in treasuries to encourage borrowing and investment. The Fed even opened the door to increase bond purchases if the economy does not improve.

DAVID KELLY, JPMORGAN FUNDS: I think, right now, they are over easy. I would like to see a little bit of sunny side up here.

PEARSON: The statement from Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow monetary policy makers sees an economy expanding at a slow pace, with an unemployment rate that remains elevated and the Fed says fiscal policy is restraining growth. Leading economists say the Fed benchmark of 6.5 percent unemployment rate for raising interest rates is becoming more elusive because of government austerity.

DIANE SWONK, MESIROW FINANCIAL: It`s weak and it`s weak because of the sequester. We`re now starting to see fiscal drag from both taxes and the sequester intermingle. And that`s one of the reasons why you see the Feds still out there.

PEARSON (on camera): Today`s disappointing data on private sector jobs and a possible manufacturing slowdown, adding to concerns ahead of Friday`s government employment report that April could see a second straight month with a significant slowdown in job growth.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson, in Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And joining us now, Randy Kroszner, former Fed governor and now professor the economics at the University of Chicago`s Booth School of Business.

Professor, welcome. Good to have you with us.

I guess everybody is saying that the key sentence in the Fed statement today is where they say they could increase or decrease the pace and size of their asset purchases.

Do you see it that way? And what does that very careful language suggest to you?

RANDY KROSZNER, FORMER FED GOVERNOR: Well, it is really the only change in statement, or, well, it`s also a change about fiscal policy. But in terms of monetary policy, that was the key change.

There have been a lot of this discussion of maybe tapering off some of those purchases. That discussion I think is now gone. The last -- two of the last three years, we`ve had these sort of spring swoons or spring slumps just when the Fed started to talk about exit strategy, taking about taking away the punch bowl, we`re not going to hear that anymore.

I think the Fed has decided it`s going to try to use an open mouth operation, trying to change people`s expectations to try to boost the economy a little bit, even before making any further purchases.

GHARIB: Randy, as a former Fed governor, you sat in all of these meetings. You know what the conversation is like.

So, what Wall Street wants to know, what investors want to know is how much longer this bond-buying program is going to go on? So, what are you saying? How long is this going to go on?

KROSZNER: Well, the Fed changes communications strategy to get away from having a particular date like 2015 to saying until the unemployment rate goes down to 6.5 percent for moving interest rates. For the bond purchases, I think it`s likely that it`s going to go on for a while. By changing the language, they made it very clear that the balanced view that they could either increase or decrease, depending on how the economy is going.

And I think, unfortunately, the economy remains in a sort of sideways slide, not really getting the traction that we need, and so I`d say it`s at least as likely, if not more likely they`re going to increase rather than decrease their purchases over the next year.

MATHISEN: You wrote not long ago that these asset purchases have

helped forestall deflation, which is really why, I suppose, the Fed has embarked on this course. Is Q.E., the bond and other asset purchases, is it still helping? And do we risk not necessarily kindling inflation at the consumer level, but an asset inflation that some people say could end badly?

KROSZNER: Sure. So, you`ve got the challenge of the regular price inflation or deflation, and we`re starting to see some of the numbers go down lower and lower. Inflation, by one of the Fed`s favorite measures that just came out, is probably around 1 percent. That`s half of the goal of around 2 percent.

Now, there are some potential concerns that by keeping interest rates so low for so long and making such promises, that you could get some more risk-taking occurring in different parts of the market.

I don`t think there is strong evidence of any dislocations, but we have to be really careful to monitor for that.

GHARIB: All right. Everybody is waiting for this important jobs report that`s coming out on Friday, and I know you watch it very carefully as well. The consensus estimate is that the unemployment rate will stay around 7.6 percent and there`d be something like 153,000 jobs created, if it actually works out that way.

I mean, how would you describe the job market these days in view of what you said, the sideways slide in the economy?

KROSZNER: Unfortunately, I think that continues to be where we are. It doesn`t mean that we`re going to have a double dip. It doesn`t mean we`re going to stop job growth. But having job growth and sort of 100,000, 150,000 area is not going to make a big dent in unemployment rate. That unemployment rate has really been stubbornly high and we just kind of continue to slide along with growth around 2 percent, generating 100,000, 150,000 jobs per month, gradually bringing that unemployment down.

The Fed is frustrated. It wants more to happen. It`s trying -- it believes it`s trying its best and now, of course, is pointing some fingers at the fiscal authorities.

MATHISEN: Very quickly and finally, Professor, would you like to see Chairman Bernanke re-nominated? Would you like to see him take another term? And do you think he would if it was offered?

KROSZNER: I have enormous respect for the chairman. I think, much like Paul Volcker, who is revered today, but when he was finishing up his eight years as chairman, there are a lot of questions about whether he did the right things or not. I think, over time, people are going to realize that Chairman Bernanke really slayed the dragon of deflation and was very important in providing the basic support for us going forward.

So, I would certainly be delighted to see him there for much longer.

MATHISEN: Very glad to have you with us tonight. Randy Kroszner, former Fed governor and professor of economics at the University of Chicago`s Booth School of Business.

GHARIB: And more on the economy today, more evidence of a turn around in housing. Mortgage applications rose 2 percent last week, following another slight dip in interest rates, 3/4 of the applications were current homeowners refinancing their loans at a lower rate.

MATHISEN: April was another blowout month for auto sales, especially for Detroit`s Big Three. Sales at Ford surged 18 percent, while Chrysler and General Motors (NYSE:GM) both saw sales rise 11 percent last month.

Smaller, more fuel efficient cars like the Ford Fusion were in high demand. But so were pickup trucks like the Dodge Ram. Some economists see that as a by-product of the recovery in housing with big demand from contractors and construction crews to replace aging vehicles they`ve held on to since the Great Recession.

GHARIB: Turning now to our "Market Focus".

Merck (NYSE:MRK) dragged down the Dow today, reporting lower profits

on reduced drug sales. Merck (NYSE:MRK) also revised its outlook lower for the rest of the year. Merck (NYSE:MRK) shares lost more than 2 1/2 percent, closing at $45.69.

MATHISEN: Well, today, Susie, one company`s pain was another firm`s gain. Despite beating on earnings, Allergan (NYSE:AGN) shares were hit hard today after the company said it will delay final tests for its drug to treat macular degeneration. As a result, shares of Regeneron led the NASDAQ. Its investors and analysts viewed that news as a positive for Regeneron Eylea drug.

Shares of Allergan (NYSE:AGN) off 13 percent to $98.67 while Regeneron gained 10 percent to finish at $237.29.

GHARIB: CVS (NYSE:CVS) Caremark touching a new all-time high, thanks to solid profits up 23 percent in the quarter. Higher demand for generic drugs, the flu season and increasing prescription volume drove profits and Wall Street now expects current quarter profits will be higher than earlier forecast.

Year-to-date, CVS (NYSE:CVS) is up 21 1/2 percent, closing at $58.75.

MATHISEN: Visa (NYSE:V) reported higher profits in Wall Street had expected and increased net operating revenues as well. The company also confirmed its full year outlook for low double digit revenue growth.

Shares of Visa (NYSE:V), though, sold off by more than 2.5 percent before the close, but they jumped in after-hours trading.

GHARIB: And Humana (NYSE:HUM) doubled its first quarter profit and raised its outlook for the full year but expressed uncertainty about 2014. About 2/3 of the Humana`s revenue comes from Medicare Advantage. This is a private Medicare plan. Rates are set by the government, and Humana (NYSE:HUM) said that`s making 2014 earnings growth uncertain.

Still, shares gained more than 4 1/2 percent on the earnings performance, and are up 13 percent so far this year.

MATHISEN: And sticking with health care, the Affordable Care Act was signed into law more than three years ago. Now, dozens of states are gearing up to implement their own health care exchanges by October when Americans can shop for their own state-run plans.

Bertha Coombs shows us the challenges one state is having in setting up its own exchange.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sort by the premium cost, by the deductible.

BERTHA COOMBS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voiceover):

Washington state has been test-driving its health benefits exchange since late March.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There`s other things in here.

COOMBS: The testing is still in the early stages. Washington is one of 16 states and the District of Columbia that are building their own insurance exchanges, the health care portals consumers will use to buy insurance and find out if they are eligible for subsidies.

Most states seem to be on target says Kaiser Family Foundation`s Jennifer Tolbert. But it`s less clear how things going with federal exchanges.

JENNIFER TOLBERT, KAISER COMMISSION ON MEDICAID & UNINSURED: We know a little bit less about how progress is proceeding at the federal level, but we are hearing that progress is being made.

COOMBS: The federal government is building exchanges for 33 states whose governors opted against a build out. Critics worry Health and Human Services won`t get systems up in time for the October 1st start of open enrollment.

But President Obama downplayed those concerns.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Any time you are implementing something big, there`s going to be people who are nervous and anxious about, is it going to get done?

COOMBS: The Deloitte Team (NASDAQ:TISI) helping to build Washington`s system says the biggest challenge is bringing the existing Medicaid and other federal reporting systems up to speed, so they don`t trip up the new portals.

BENUSH VENUGOPAL, DELOITTE: Legacy systems, it takes a little while longer to do that. And these changes are essentially to support the additional data capture that we needed to do, to support the Affordable Care Act.

COOMBS (on camera): For the federal exchanges resolving conflicts with 33 different state systems will be a big, complicated piece of business in President Obama`s words. HHS has already said it`s going to have to delay some small business options until 2015 because it can`t get them up and running in time for October 1st.

(voice-over): In Washington, they feel like they are right on schedule to get both individual and small business plans online and ready on time.

RICHARD ONIZUKA, WASHINGTON HEALTH EXCHANGE CEO: Everybody is very

engaged and very involved and very interested in our success, so that`s been really helpful.

COOMBS: For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bertha Coombs.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: It is complicated, Tyler. It is challenging. And I think one of the biggest challenge is, they`ve got to communicate what`s going on. A poll came out from Kaiser saying that almost half of Americans don`t even know that the Affordable Care Act is a law and they have to have insurance.

MATHISEN: Picking the right plan is tough enough before this law. I think it`s just about to get a lot more complicated.

GHARIB: Complicated, a lot we have to learn yet.

Well, still ahead, if content is king, which media companies have an edge, old media or new?

But, first, the international markets, most of them were closed today. Here is a look at the ones that were open.

(MUSIC)

GHARIB: Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) losing more face with investors today after the market closed. The social networking site reported earnings that came in below analyst estimates and then the stock bounced up and down in reaction.

Seema Mody is at the NASDAQ with all the details of Facebook`s latest results.

Over to you, Seema.

SEEMA MODY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Susie, Facebook`s first quarter came in at $1.46 billion, which is slightly higher than the street estimate, but as you point out, earnings didn`t meet -- earnings did miss street expectations, excuse me, by a penny. Now, mobile was the key buzzword on analyst`s minds. Mobile ad revenue now makes up 30 percent of Facebook`s total ad revenue, compared to the 23 percent it reported last quarter.

And Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) also reported a jump in mobile monthly active users. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, "We have seen strong growth and engagement across our community and launched several exciting products. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in general has been taking more steps to make its social networking site more mobile-friendly. It recently made updates to its timeline, as well as other features. It also unveiled its Facebook

(NASDAQ:FB) Home software for Android users, all in all in an effort to lure in the mobile user.

Back over to you.

MATHISEN: All right. Seema, thank you very much.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) may represent the new media, but some of the old media companies also reported their earnings today. And the results were pretty good.

After the bell, we heard from CBS (NYSE:CBS), remember that company? They got "60 Minutes" and other shows. It saw profits rise 22 percent last quarter on higher ad rates for the Super Bowl and a jump in revenue from cable carrier fees.

Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS), the owner of NBC Universal (NYSE:UVV), which is the parent of CNBC, which produces this broadcast, made more than expected, with growth in its theme parks and cable news units, even though it lost more cable TV subscribers.

And Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) made more than forecast last quarter on the strength of CNN, HBO and other cable networks it owns, despite weakness in its movie studio and, notably, its publishing business.

And if that wasn`t enough, to show that some of the old guard is doing pretty well -- shares of too more media giants, Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Viacom (NYSE:VIA), each touched all-time highs today on a down day in the markets.

GHARIB: Joining to us talk about the investing opportunities in all kinds of media companies, Larry Haverty. He`s portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.

Larry, let`s begin with Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). I know you have been recommending it. And now that you`ve seen the numbers, do you still feel that way after seeing those earnings?

LARRY HAVERTY, GABELLIO FUNDS PORTFOLIO MANAGER: Absolutely. The key statistics are not the earnings -- the revenues in the engagement. And the ad revenues grew 43 percent.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in the next five years are going to capture all of the incremental growth in global advertising dollars. And you can see Google`s revenues, you can see it in Facebook`s.

Now the question is, how fast is Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) going to convert this revenue to operating cash flow? They didn`t get a particularly good grade in this quarter. They only converted around 25 percent, which is pretty low since you have a company that doesn`t really sell anything, it

(INAUDIBLE).

So, they are spending a lot of money in initiatives. It`s kind of like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). I think the market is going to give Mark a hall pass when showing enmity (ph) for a while and we`ve seen act one of the movie, which is collecting the dollars. Act two is converting them to a profit and we`ll just have to see.

I think the stock is fairly priced here if it does down, it becomes more attractive, and we`ll just have to wait. It`s not a definitive proposition. I think the market figured that out after hours.

MATHISEN: You know, Larry, we`ve used the construct of new media versus old media. And, obviously, new media companies and old media cross pollinate, and they connect in various ways.

Let me cut to the chase here. If you had $10,000 to invest over the next five years, how would you apportion it between or among new media companies as we traditionally think of them and old media companies, and which specific names would get the most of the money?

HAVERTY: I`d go at least 50 percent in new media, and I think the biggest position would be Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is very reasonably priced. They win in search. They win in video. And heaven only knows, Tyler, what`s going to happen with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)

Glass. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Glass could be really enormous, and it`s a free call.

I`d maybe put 10 percent in Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and I`d put 15 percent in Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO)! largely because I think the proposition with Alibaba in China is going to be a spectacular success. And we`ll have to see when Alibaba goes public, which I think will happen at the end of the year.

The rest of it, old media not so bad. The collection of ad dollars problematic, but what they`ve done is they figured out a way using technology to get their content viewed on more platforms. And CBS (NYSE:CBS) has done this with its cable network. Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) has done it with HBO Go and TV everywhere.

And you are getting new streams of people paying for content like Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and TV stations are collecting re-transmission consent.

And the beauty of this, Tyler, is it`s about 90 percent incremental profit because they`re not really spending a whole lot more money to produce the content.

So, the incremental margins are terrific. The companies are generating in the neighborhood of 8 percent to 10 percent cash flow growth

and management has all gotten religion how to distribute that cash flow growth to the shareholders, I think Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) has gotten the most religion. They now are pretty distributing 100 percent. But CBS (NYSE:CBS) is right up there with them.

GHARIB: We have --

(CROSSTALK)

HAVERTY: Great story.

GHARIB: We`re going to leave it there.

Any disclosures to make? Do you own any of the stocks you just talked about?

HAVERTY: We own them all.

GHARIB: You own them all. OK, fair enough.

Thanks so much. Larry Haverty, portfolio manager at Gabelli Multimedia Trust.

MATHISEN: What you call a blanket disclosure there, right?

All right. JCPenney is sorry, posting a public apology on YouTube and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) pages, admitting it made mistakes, saying that it listened to unhappy customers and wants those shoppers to come back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, JC PENNEY COMMERCIAL)

AD NARRATOR: It`s no secret. Recently, JC Penney changed --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATHISEN: Penney knows it messed up by ending sales days and eliminating coupons, which resulted in the loss of a quarter of its core customers over just the past year alone.

Wall Street wasn`t particularly impressed it would seem by the mea culpa. Shares of Penney`s today closed down more than 1 percent again on a down day for stocks.

Coming up, what one cola giant is doing back-to-win back consumers who have sworn off soda?

First, though, here is how commodities, treasuries and currencies fared today.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: Finally, tonight, with U.S. sales on the decline for eight years straight, things have been pretty tough for soda makers who are working harder than ever to sell those drinks. It`s especially tough for the number three soda maker, Dr. Pepper Snapple. You know their brand, 7UP, A&W, Sunkist, Canada Dry and, of course, Dr. Pepper.

And Jane Wells shows us what that company is doing to get more Americans to come back to buying the bubbly sweet stuff.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID THOMAS: How about Sunkist? You like orange?

JANE WELLS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Inside a labyrinth of laboratories on the ground floor of an office building in Plano, Texas --

THOMAS: Here`s another version of Zevia.

WELLS: -- David Thomas, a PhD in food and flavor, is leading a team trying to break through the clutter on the soda shelf and lure Americans back to drinking cola.

THOMAS: We`re all about flavor.

WELLS: This is the headquarters for Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, the perennial number three to Coke and Pepsi, trying to thrive in a country where people have been switching from sodas to energy drinks or water.

LARRY YOUNG, DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP PRES. & CEO: Oh, every day is like the Super Bowl.

WELLS: CEO Larry Young has been in this business over 40 years.

YOUNG: There is a lot of cola fatigue out there. Flavors are continuing to grow. We play in the flavors. That`s what we do.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Manliest low calorie soda in the history of mankind.

WELLS: Young says the company is starting to win back people who have sworn off cola with a new 10-calorie product line which he says has the same mouth feel as full calorie cola, the new line is helping Dr. Pepper gain market share.

But Young doesn`t buy the argument that sodas are the cause of obesity.

YOUNG: Everybody is trying to say that, you know, obesity is being

caused by soft drinks. How can soft drinks be declining and obesity climbing? I mean, it`s just exact opposite.

WELLS: As sales volume thread water, the company is doubling on marketing, like a new initiative adding videos to the famous Snapple facts called Snapple "Reinfactments".

JIM TREBILCOCK, DR. PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP MARKETING EVP: We have to think differently, as kind of that Trojan horse in the beverage industry. We really have to be creative in how we approach things and take a little bit more risks.

WELLS: The company is proud to show off all the risks it`s taking -well, almost all.

(on camera): But they won`t let us go everywhere. Behind this door is the vault, which contains the secret recipe for Dr. Pepper, all 23 ingredients. They won`t let us see the vault. They do let us see the door.

(voice-over): Will the innovations pay off? The CEO says it will be a long, tough fight.

YOUNG: I like to tell everybody that talks about us being small compared to Coke and Pepsi, as a farm boy (ph), I`ve seen a lot of fleas

make a bulldog bite his butt.

WELLS (on camera): Are any bulldogs biting their butts yet?

YOUNG: Well, we`re still gaining share.

WELLS (voice-over): For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Jane Wells, Plano, Texas.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: One of those things, a little can become big. You drink a Coke, or a sugar drink a day, it adds up to a lot of calories. That`s why I sort of replace them with --

GHARIB: The diet.

MATHISEN: -- with waters. I do like the diet, though. I do like diet Dr. Pepper. It`s actually my favorite among them.

All right. A programming note for you: tomorrow, I`ll be hosting NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT from the Investment Company Institute`s annual meeting down in Washington, talking to some of the biggest names in the mutual fund business.

GHARIB: And on Friday, I`ll be in Omaha, covering the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) annual meeting, the big event of the year for value investors. And I`ll also interview Warren Buffett and I`ll have a complete wrap up on Monday.

MATHISEN: Fantastic.

And that will do it for tonight`s edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. I`m Tyler Mathisen, thanks for watching.

GHARIB: And I`m Susie Gharib. Have a great evening, everyone. And we`ll see you tomorrow.

END

Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post broadcast at http://nbr.com. The program is transcribed by CQRC Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. (c) 2013 CNBC, Inc.

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