Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Moore-Jones
000589-008
Extended
Essay
Business
&
Management
Supervisor:
Vaishally
Gandhi
Scots
College
Under what circumstances are lean startup methods appropriate for use by early-stage Internet technology companies?
Lean startup methods are processes that enable entrepreneurs to discover and develop markets and products while preserving resources. They are being rapidly adopted by new ventures in the technology industry that are creating products and services on the Internet. These ventures are referred to as early- stage Internet technology companies. Lean methods reduce the risk inherent in otherwise risky ventures through a cycle of validating hypotheses to prove assumptions about the market. Because the methods reduce risk, it was assumed that lean startups should see higher success rates than traditional startups, now referred to as fat startups. This was not proven empirically, suggesting that perhaps lean startups methods are not appropriate for use under all circumstances. This essay posed the following question: Under what circumstances are lean startup methods appropriate for use by early-stage Internet technology companies? It began with the hypothesis that there are specific scenarios where lean methods will aid a company, and specific scenarios where they could hinder a company. Research was undertaken by locating a range of secondary sources, from obvious texts to more obscure academic journals. These sources provided the overview of the topic required before analysis of specific areas. News articles and interviews were in some cases relevant, providing primary information unavailable elsewhere. Through analysing empirical insights of existing companies, the applicability of the information found was tested. Research allowed the creation of the Startup Strategy Matrix, which gives companies a simple method of determining the strategies that they should pursue. It led to the conclusion that lean startup methods should be used when a company is entering a new market with a new product. Fat startup methods should be used in other circumstances. Should companies heed the findings of this essay, they can be expected to have an improved success rate.
Abstract
Table
of
Contents
Abstract
Introduction
Appropriate
Use
Circumstances
i.
Introduction
to
extreme
uncertainty
ii.
Entering
a
new
or
re-segmented
market
with
a
new
product
iii.
Companies
with
an
in-house
technical
development
team
iv.
Where
virality
is
a
companys
growth
strategy
Inappropriate
Use
Circumstances
i.
Entering
existing
markets
with
new
products
ii.
Entering
new
markets
with
existing
products
iii.
When
selling
to
quality-conscious
market
segments
iv.
When
following
an
external
growth
strategy
Conclusions
Bibliography
2
4
6
6
8
9
11
12
12
13
15
15
17
19
Empirical studies show that over a period of five years, seventy-eight percent of all early-stage Internet technology companies can be expected to fail.1 This is a dire result; interestingly, the vast majority of these companies utilize similar strategies for bringing their product to market.2 In recent years, a subset of early-stage Internet companies (companies whose primary product is a website or Internet application) have been following different principles lean methods - and have taken a step away from traditional methods for bringing a product to market. These new companies refer to themselves as "Lean Startups" (a term credited to Eric Ries, who has written an influential book by the same name), and label companies using traditional methods as "Fat Startups". They take their name from lean manufacturing, which saw success in Japan with companies like Toyota being revolutionized. Lean manufacturing, and subsequently lean startups, at their core revolve around removing any activities that are wasteful. Lean startup methods are tools and philosophies that allow early-stage companies to bring a successful product to market by focusing on learning through validation of hypotheses. A company will make a guess as to who their users are, and what product they want, and will then test this assumption in real life through a low-cost, basic version of the product. It will then continually adjust the product, or start all over again, based on the evidence shown through its customers usage. They do not spend on marketing or sales until they have a validated product, and therefore consume less capital than fat startups. They are capital efficient as they recognize sooner if they are heading towards success or failure. Other advantages and disadvantages of lean methods will be made clear throughout this essay. As a number of companies utilizing lean methods reach success, the methods are increasingly being adopted. The vast majority of new Internet technology companies use lean methods. At the same time, numerous lean companies are failing, or not living up to expectations made of them. It is likely that there are scenarios under which utilizing lean methods will aid a company in bringing a successful product to market, and there are also definable scenarios where the use of lean methods will hinder a company. By defining these scenarios, we could help new companies to make more effective decisions about the methods they use to bring a successful product to market. The aim of this essay, therefore, is to explore and discover the circumstances under which lean startup methods are appropriate
1
Song,
Michael,
Ksenia
Podoynitsyna,
Hans
Van
Der
Bij,
and
Johannes
Halman.
"Success
Factors
2
Blank,
Steven
Gary.
"Winners
and
Losers."
Introduction.
The
Four
Steps
to
the
Epiphany:
Introduction
in New Ventures: A Meta-Analysis." The Journal of Product Innovation Management 25.1 (2008): 7-8. Print.
Successful Strategies for Products That Win. S.G. Blank, 2007. Viii. Print.
Michael Moore-Jones 000589-008 for use by early-stage Internet technology companies. While lean methods are applicable to companies of all ages and industries, this essay is limited to early-stage Internet technology companies so that its findings can be particularly relevant, and therefore beneficial, to a specific group of companies.
Through this essay, circumstances where lean methods should and should not be used will be made clear. As a result, the failure rate of early-stage Internet technology companies could be reduced, as they begin to use methods appropriate to their individual situation. Entrepreneurial ventures, if successful, can create jobs and growth in an economy. This leads to an improved standard of living for many individuals in society, and will lead to wider benefits for multiple reasons, such as the companys ability to pay additional tax. Therefore, if the failure rate of early-stage Internet technology companies is reduced, many people in society will be better off.
3
Ries,
Eric.
"Part
One
-
Vision."
The
Lean
Startup:
How
Today's
Entrepreneurs
Use
Continuous
Innovation
to
Create
Radically
Successful
Businesses.
New
York:
Crown
Business,
2011.
29.
Print.
4 Blank, Steven Gary. "Not All Startups Are Alike." The Four Steps to the Epiphany: Successful
Strategies for Products That Win. [California]: S.G. Blank, 2007. 12. Print. 5 Courtney, Hugh, Jane Kirkland, and Patrick Viguerie. "Strategy Under Uncertainty." McKinsey & Co. Quarterly. June 2000. Web. 17 Dec. 2011. <https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy_under_uncertainty_1064>. 6 Ries, Eric. "Part One - Vision." The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses. New York: Crown Business, 2011. 29. Print.
7 This diagram is a modified version of one presented in Steven Gary Blanks The Four Steps to
the Epiphany: Successful Strategies for Products That Win. [California]: S.G. Blank, 2007. Print.
For Internet technology companies, the product development method is largely ineffective. Companies will go through the cycle, consuming resources as they do, without knowing if the product is what the market wants. It can lead to a large waste of resources, as in the classic example of a failed fat startup, WebVan, an online grocery retailer that consumed approximately USD$1.2 billion in venture capital, and entered bankruptcy shortly after.8 9 10 Lean methods, in comparison, are inherently useful to companies operating under extreme uncertainty. They focus on validated learning a rigorous method for demonstrating progress when one is embedded in the soil of extreme uncertainty.11 Whereas the product development method is linear, lean methods (which include Steve Blanks theories on customer development12) are circular a company will repeatedly carry out certain tasks in order to find what is successful. In extreme uncertainty, a companys knowledge of its customers and product is limited. Lean methods therefore force the company to focus on learning before investing and acting. The following part of this essay explores the circumstances where it makes sense for an early-stage Internet technology company to utilize lean methods. It is assumed that all of the following scenarios are within the boundaries of extreme uncertainty.
8 Burgess, Kristy, Sharon T. Hopkins, and Kenneth White. "WebVan: A Cautionary Tale." Diss.
University
Archives.
19
Mar.
2001.
Web.
15
Dec.
2011.
<http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/articlepdf/321.pdf?CFID=182070430&CFTOKEN=6240 8507&jsessionid=a8309b1a9d455d95a900c666820534163e4c>.
9
"Webvan
Finds
That
Shopping
for
Food
Online
Hasnt
Clicked
with
Consumers."Wharton
10 Here it should be briefly noted that the figure of USD$1.2 billion is questionable to a certain
extent. There are limited sources citing WebVans financial data, and there are different figures reported. Accessing WebVans old financial documents would be ideal as a source, but they are unavailable to the public. However, the above figure was cited in multiple sources, and so can at least indicate the extent of the financial waste that WebVan caused. 11 Ries, Eric. "Learn." The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses. New York: Crown Business, 2011. 38. Print.
12 Cooper, Brant, and Patrick Vlaskovits. The Entrepreneurs Guide to Customer Development: A
"Cheat Sheet" to the Four Steps to the Epiphany. Cooper-Vlaskovits, 2010. Print.
The Startup Strategy Matrix tells us that if we are bringing a new product into a new market, lean startup methods should be pursued, and there should be a
13
Hoang,
Paul.
"The
Ansoff
Matrix."
Business
&
Management.
[Melton,
Vic.]:
IBID
Press,
2007.
131-33.
Print.
14 Blank, Steven Gary. "Not All Startups Are Alike." The Four Steps to the Epiphany: Successful
Strategies
for
Products
That
Win.
[California]:
S.G.
Blank,
2007.
12.
Print.
15
Ries,
Eric.
"The
Roots
of
the
Lean
Startup".
The
Lean
Startup:
How
Today's
Entrepreneurs
Use
Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses. New York: Crown Business, 2011. 18-24. Print.
focus on innovative customer development. This is the corner of the Matrix where there is the most uncertainty almost nothing is known about the companys customers or their desires. The company should therefore focus on learning and discovering customers desires and preferences before embarking on any other activities. Lean methods will allow the company to do exactly this, while preserving capital.
It is worth noting that if a company is re-segmenting an existing market as either a low-cost or niche entrant, the company essentially falls into the bottom-right of the Startup Strategy Matrix and should use lean startup methods.16 They have no solid evidence of their customers preferences, and are unsure which customers from the whole market will be a part of the resegmented market. Therefore, they should use both lean and customer development methods in order to discover truths about their precise market. There are very few circumstances in which it would make sense for a company with a new product entering a new or re-segmented market to use fat startup methods instead of lean ones. The company would be making too many imprecise inferences about fundamental parts of the business, such as their value proposition and growth strategy. If they do not know their customers yet, it is impossible to have any evidence on whether these assumptions are correct.
10
Traditional development methods are referred to as Waterfall, or Stage-Gate.17 A development team is given a brief with multiple milestones for a feature. They will complete multiple features, and then launch many features in one batch. This is a slow development method that gives a company little time to learn from its customers about how they actually use the product this is not in line with the goals of a company using lean startup methods. A lean startup, by contrast, will have its technical development team utilizing Agile development methods.18 The creators of such methods describe them as valuing individuals and interactions over processes and tools, working software over comprehensive documentation, customer collaboration over contract negotiation, and responding to change over following a plan.19 This description lies in stark contrast to the workings of Waterfall methods, which value the opposite concepts. With Waterfall methods, if there is an error in a piece of code, the company will not discover this until it pushes the code to users, which will happen in a large batch along with many other features once every month or so. An error could potentially cause the failure of all of the companys software, rendering its business temporarily unable to function. Because the company has also pushed other features and code to users at the same time, it will be hard to discover the error that caused the problem.20 Agile development is one of the tenets of lean startup methods. It requires that the company publish code to its users the moment it is written, and then monitor the results. In terms of manufacturing, it is the equivalent of small batch sizes, which are proven to be more efficient.21 If there is a problem with the code, it will be discovered immediately, and can be fixed straight away because there will only have been one piece of code that could have caused the problem. If a company employs an outside software or web design and development firm, it likely has little control over how its product is developed. However, if the 17 Wasson, Charles S. "The Evolutionary Development Model." System Analysis, Design, and
Development Concepts, Principles, and Practices. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Interscience, 2006. 292-93. Print.
Media,
2008.
3-13.
Print.
18
Shore,
James,
and
Shane
Warden.
"Why
Agile?"
The
Art
of
Agile
Development.
Beijing:
O'Reilly
2012. <http://agilemanifesto.org/>.
19 Multiple. "The Agile Manifesto." Manifesto for Agile Software Development. 2001. Web. 14 Jan.
20 Ries, Eric. "Batch." The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to
Create Radically Successful Businesses. New York: Crown Business, 2011. 184-205. Print. 21 Bodek, Norman. "Taiichi Ohno." Kaikaku: The Power and Magic of Lean : A Study in Knowledge Transfer. Vancouver, WA: PCS, 2004. 27-37. Print.
11
company employs an in-house development team, and if one or more co- founders of the company is part of the technical team, then lean startup methods (and therefore agile development methods) should be used. Using agile methods will reduce the risk that an error in code could disrupt the companys functioning, and will also allow the company to test many additional features on its users.
22
Lippman,
Andrew,
and
David
Reed.
"Viral
Communications."
Diss.
Massachusetts
Institute
of
Technology,
2003.
19
May
2003.
Web.
22
Jan.
2012.
<http://web.media.mit.edu/~lip/Papers/ML_Papers/Viral%20Communications0527.pdf>.
23 Windrum, Paul, and Peter Swann. "Networks, Noise, and Web Navigation: Sustaining
Metcalfe's Law Through Technological Innovation." Diss. Manchester Business School, University of Maastricht, 1999. Jan. 1999. Web. 22 Jan. 2012. <http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=319>.
12
The Startup Strategy Matrix states that innovative product development methods should be used when entering an existing market with a new product. As much is already known about the market, a company must simply carry out market research and then execute its plan correctly in order to succeed. Traditional product development methods (see fig. 1) will allow the company to execute successfully, while innovation will ensure that the company builds a new product with points of difference that the market will respond to favorably. Were lean startup methods to be used in this situation, the company would waste time trying to gain knowledge that it could have discovered much more quickly through other methods. Because of this wasted time, the company
13
could potentially be beaten to market by another company and miss the opportunity. Ben Horowitz, a successful entrepreneur and venture capitalist, says about using lean methods; you may lose your opportunity to win the market, either because you fail to fund the R&D necessary to find product/market fit or you let a competitor out-execute you in taking the market.24
Groupon25 is an Internet technology company that saw huge success in the United States, quickly becoming the fastest-growing company the world has ever seen.26 Their business model involves selling coupons to large number of consumers who are incentivized to share the coupon with their friends. While Groupon quickly expanded and launched their service in many cities within the United States, other entrepreneurs saw their success and began replicating their business model and product (in this case their website) in new markets. 27 Again drawing upon the Startup Strategy Matrix (fig. 2), these Groupon clones, as they are referred to, correspond to the lower-left corner. They are companies entering new markets with existing products.
24
Horowitz,
Ben.
"The
Case
for
the
Fat
Startup."
Web
log
post.
AllThingsDigital.
7
Mar.
2010.
Web.
5
Nov.
2011.
<http://allthingsd.com/20100317/the-case-for-the-fat-startup/>.
25 Groupon features a deal each day on something for people in different cities to eat, see, or do.
They sell coupons for these activities that only activate when a pre-set minimum number of people purchase the deal. For this reason, they achieved viral growth as people share deals with their contacts in order for the deal to activate. 26 Steiner, Christopher. "Meet The Fastest Growing Company Ever." Forbes. 8 Dec. 2010. Web. 26 Jan. 2012. <http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0830/entrepreneurs-groupon-facebook- twitter-next-web-phenom.html>.
27 Kim, Tae-Hyung, Kevin Lam, and Christopher Tsai. "The Groupon Effect in China."The Wharton
School of the University of Pennsylvania. 3 Jan. 2012. Web. 26 Jan. 2012. <http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2899>.
14
Groupons
success
was
not
market-specific.
In
every
state
within
the
United
States
that
Groupon
expanded
into,
the
result
was
similarly
large
growth.
It
was
clear
that
Groupons
product
was
one
that
humans
in
many
different
markets
desired.
It
appears
that
having
first-mover
advantage
is
hugely
important
in
launching
companies
based
on
Groupons
business
model.
Indeed,
the
first
four
companies
following
this
business
model
to
launch
in
major
cities
in
the
United
States
now
control
an
estimated
89%
of
the
market.28
Lean
startup
methods
can
take
longer
to
execute
than
fat
startup
methods
because
they
require
a
circular
approach.
Multiple
hypotheses
are
tested
until
the
company
has
a
model
that
is
proven
to
be
working
and
has
discovered
its
market.
However,
since
companies
have
seen
Groupons
business
model
work
in
multiple
markets,
they
can
be
sure
it
will
work
in
any
new
market
that
they
introduce
it
to.
They
have
no
real
need
to
execute
lean
startup
methods,
as
they
already
know
what
product
should
be
built.
They
are
also
heavily
incentivized
to
be
first
to
market
in
order
to
gain
large
market
share.
Were
lean
startup
methods
to
be
used,
companies
could
miss
out
on
being
first
to
market
by
working
to
prove
hypotheses
that
had
already
been
proven
correct
by
existing
companies
in
other
markets.
It
is
clear
that
in
scenarios
such
as
that
of
a
Groupon
clone
when
entering
a
new
market
with
an
existing
product
utilizing
lean
startup
methods
will
lead
to
missed
opportunities
for
many
companies.
28
Duryee,
Tricia.
"Another
Groupon
Clone?
Bloomspot
Says
There's
Room
for
One
More."
AllThingsDigital.
16
May
2011.
Web.
23
Jan.
2012.
<http://allthingsd.com/20110516/another-groupon-clone-bloomspot-says-theres-room-for- one-more/>.
Michael Moore-Jones 000589-008 Utilizing fat startup methods, in contrast, will lead to faster execution because they take a linear approach, and allow the company to spend on marketing to take advantage of being amongst the first to market, gaining market share.
15
Journal
of
the
Institute
for
Operations
Research
and
the
Management
Sciences
17.2
(1998):
156-69.
Print.
30
Ries,
Eric.
"Test."
The
Lean
Startup:
How
Today's
Entrepreneurs
Use
Continuous
Innovation
to
Create Radically Successful Businesses. New York: Crown Business, 2011. 106-08. Print.
32
Ries,
Eric.
"Test."
The
Lean
Startup:
How
Today's
Entrepreneurs
Use
Continuous
Innovation
to
Create Radically Successful Businesses. New York: Crown Business, 2011. 93-94. Print.
16
acquiring products such as Tweetie,34 a mobile-application version of Twitter. Twitter had no mobile application of its own, and found that it could best take advantage of the opportunity in the mobile space through an acquisition, rather than building its own product in-house. If a company finds that it can best respond to an opportunity through an acquisition, merger, or takeover of another company, then fat startup methods should be pursued. These methods will enable the company to raise sufficient capital in order to carry out external growth. A company using lean startup methods, by contrast, would be unable to carry out external growth due to the time it would take to validate hypotheses about the opportunity being pursued. For example, Twitter noticed an opportunity in the market for mobile applications and decided it should enter this market immediately. If it had used lean methods, it would have had to first validate its hypotheses about the market. The time needed to do this could have allowed another company to take advantage of this market opportunity first. Two things are worth noting here. Firstly, a company may at first follow lean startup methods but then spot a market opportunity. If the opportunity is large, it may be beneficial for the company to change to a fat startup strategy in order to pursue that opportunity quickly through external growth. Secondly, it can be said that companies using fat startup methods therefore carry more risk, as they do not take time to validate assumptions. They will simply enter a market to ensure that an opportunity is not missed, even if some of their assumptions later turn out to be incorrect.
17
Conclusions
The benefits of lean startup methods are clear. They allow companies operating under conditions of extreme uncertainty to reduce the risk inherent in their venture through validating hypotheses based on experience. They enable companies to operate using small batch sizes, and better manage in-house technical development. However, it is also clear that lean startup methods are not appropriate for use by early-stage Internet technology companies in all situations. The use of lean startup methods in certain situations will damage a companys ability to grasp an opportunity, and to react boldly enough with large amounts of financial capital. The results of this essay based on research by both scholars and entrepreneurs, as well as first-hand observations of companies have led to a set of clearly defined scenarios where lean startup methods should, and should not, be used. In initially deciding on a startup strategy, companies must examine the type of market they are entering, and what product they are entering it with. The Startup Strategy Matrix (fig. 2) was developed as part of this essay. It clearly describes the strategies that companies should use based on their market and product combinations. This should be the main factor in a companys choice of startup strategy. The Startup Strategy Matrix allows us to say that in general, if a company is entering a new market with a new product, it should use lean startup methods. However, a company must continue to examine whether lean startup methods remain relevant throughout its process of discovering its market and product. This research has also shown that if a company discovers that it is entering a quality-conscious market segment, it should change strategy to traditional fat startup methods in order to take advantage of Demings theories on quality. Additionally, if a company deems that it needs an external growth strategy to take advantage of a market opportunity, it should alter course and utilize fat startup methods. Many of the insights in this essay are non-exclusive. For example, if a company begins using lean startup methods because it is entering a new market with a new product, but then finds a lager opportunity in a different market segment, it should change its strategy accordingly. The initial strategy chosen should merely guide a company to discovering new information, at which point a company may be required to change strategy. It should be noted that some unexplored areas could have added to the conclusiveness and scope of this essay. First, the real-life applicability and usefulness of the Startup Strategy Matrix should have been tested in order to understand how the Matrix affects the strategies that a real company uses. By giving the Matrix to various companies, and monitoring their results in comparison to new companies not using the Matrix, the effectiveness of the
18
Matrix on company development could be tested. While this would have been ideal, it was not within the scope of this essay, as it would have required a large amount of time to determine differences between the companies development. Secondly, additional examples of companies using different startup strategies would have helped to clarify the circumstances presented in this essay, such as a real-life example of a company trying to achieve viral growth. However, early- stage Internet technology companies are by nature protective of their internal company information, to ensure that competitors cannot prepare a similar product before the company launches its product. This made the finding of real- life examples difficult and outside the scope of this essay. The findings of this essay offer clear scenarios relevant to all early-stage Internet technology companies. It is hoped that the conclusions will help companies to find the most relevant strategy, and to adjust it in the light of new information. Companies following startup strategies relevant to the circumstances presented in this essay should increase their chances of success.
19
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21
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