Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

Poverty and Natural Resource Management in the Central Highlands of Eritrea

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Economische Wetenschappen aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, dr. F. Zwarts, in het openbaar te verdedigen op maandag 28 november 2005 om 14.45 uur

door

Bereket Araya Tesfamicael

geboren op 1 januari 1968 te Asmara (Eritrea)

Promotores:

Prof. Dr. Ir. C. Schweigman Prof. Dr. A.J. M. Schoot Uiterkamp Prof. Dr. B.W. Lensink Dr. S. Nonhebel

Co-promotor:

Beoordelingscommissie :

Prof.dr. J. B. Opschoor Prof.dr. C.J. Jepma Prof.dr. J. van Andel

Acknowledgements
I owe much gratitude to many people for their help and friendship during my stay in the Netherlands. A great number of people have contributed to this book in one way or another, and I would like to take the opportunity to mention several of them. First, however, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the Netherlands Universities Foundation for International Co-operation (NUFFIC) for financing my research. I gratefully acknowledge also the College of Business and Economics, University of Asmara for giving me a study leave to pursue my Ph.D. research. I am greatly indebted to my Promotors Prof. Caspar Schweigman, Prof. Ton Schoot Uiterkamp, Prof Robert Lensink and Dr. Sanderine Nonhebel for their continuous support and encouragement. Their professional advice and constructive suggestions were essential for this thesis. Especially, I would like to thank Caspar for his great interest in this study and his close guidance throughout the years of my study. Without his support, this study would not have come to completion. His enthusiasm and friendliness were also constant sources of encouragement. I would like to gratefully acknowledge Dr. Huib Hengsdijk of Plant Research International, Wageneingen University, for allowing me to use his TCG software and for spending considerable time in generating relevant data using parameters representing the conditions in the Central Highlands of Eritrea. I also thank Dr. Ruerd Ruben and Dr. Kees Praagman for their comments on the statistical analysis of the data. Special thanks as well to Yoeri Zwols for his assistance with the GAMS software. Many people have helped me during my fieldwork in Eritrea. I would like to specially mention Dr Woldesellasie Ogbazghi, head of the Department of Land Resource and Environment at the University of Asmara and his senior undergraduate students, as well as Mr. Dawit Ghiorgis, head of Planning Department in the Ministry of Agriculture. I also want to thank Mr. Senai Woldeab, Mr. Abraham Gebrekirstos and my brothers, Tsegai, Fessehazion and Habtom for their help with data collection. The CDS staff, Mr. Arthur de Boer, Mr. Hans Paul Klijnsma and Dr. Pieter Boele van Hensbroek deserve my gratitude for the lively environment they created for me both at the office and outside. I would also like to extend my gratitude to Dr. Clemens Lutz and to members of the Office for International Relations, Madeleine, Eric, Marieke and Anita. I would like also to thank all my

friends who made my study life in the Netherlands easy and enjoyable. Special thanks to my friends Maarten van Ommen, Asmerom Atewebrhan, Bereket Mehari and Fitsum Ghebregiorgis. I am forever indebted to my father Araya Tesfamicael and my mother Abrehet Ghebrewold for being the wonderful loving and caring parents that they are and for making sure that I continued my study even at the most difficult times. Last, but certainly not least, my heartfelt thanks to my wife, Tigisti Msghna and my children Yafet and Batseba. Tigisti has always been of great moral support and happily took the burden of family responsibility so that I could concentrate on my study. Ebenezer thus far has the Lord helped us (1 samuel 7:12). I am grateful to God for helping me to see a successful conclusion of this long journey. Bereket Araya

ii

Table of Contents
Acknowledgements List of Tables List of Figures List of Abbreviations i ix xiii
xv

Chapter 1
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Introduction

1 1 2 4 4 6

Background of the study Statement of the problem Objectives of the study Methodology of the study Organization of the study

Chapter 2
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

Agricultural Intensification, Agricultural Productivity and Land Degradation in Africa

9 9 10 12 14 17 18 19

Introduction Performance of agriculture in Africa Land degradation Agricultural intensification Understanding farmers decisions for agricultural intensification 2.5.1 Poverty and land degradation 2.5.2 Land tenure and land degradation

Chapter 3
3.1 3.2

Agriculture, Energy and Land Degradation in Eritrea

23 23 23 23 25 30 31 32 33 37 39 39 43 49

3.3

3.4 3.5

3.6

Introduction The state of Eritrean agriculture 3.2.1 Land size and land use 3.2.2 Crop production 3.2.3 Livestock Energy and forestry in Eritrea 3.3.1 Energy 3.3.2 Forests and woodlands Land degradation The causes of land degradation in Eritrea 3.5.1 Direct causes of land degradation 3.5.2 Indirect causes of land degradation Summary

Chapter 4
4.1 4.2 4.3

Model Structure and Approach

51 51 51 53 53 55 55 56 57 59 61 62 65 65 65 66 67 67 68 68 70 74 74 76 78 79 81 83 87 90 91

Introduction Theoretical foundations of farm household modelling Bio-economic modelling approaches 4.3.1 Classification of bio-economic models 4.4 The structure and major components of the BEM of the farming system in the Highlands of Eritrea 4.4.1 Structure of the bio-economic model 4.4.2 Interactions between various components of the model 4.4.3 Socio-economic components of the bio-economic model 4.4.4 Biophysical components of the bio-economic model 4.5 Conclusions

Chapter 5
5.1 5.2

The Field Research

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6 5.7 5.8

Introduction Methodology of the field research 5.2.1 General farm household survey 5.2.2 In-depth farm household survey 5.2.3 Field measurements The research area and the research villages 5.3.1 The Central Highlands of Eritrea 5.3.2 The research villages Household resources 5.4.1 Labour 5.4.2 Land Crop production 5.5.1 Crop yield 5.5.2 Labour and oxen requirement 5.5.3 Land management practices Livestock Tree planting Summary

Chapter 6
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5

Bio-economic Model of the Farming Systems in the Highlands of Eritrea 93

93 93 94 95 99 102 103 105

Introduction Mathematical modelling of the farming systems The planning year and the planning period Land use decisions and land constraints 6.4.1 Tree growth and the land constraints Crop production and consumption modelling 6.5.1 Crop residues 6.5.2 Consumption, buying and selling of crops

iv

6.6 6.7

6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13

Wood and grass production 6.6.1 Grass production Livestock modelling 6.7.1 Feed availability and livestock 6.7.2 Animal power requirement and livestock 6.7.3 Milk production 6.7.4 Manure production and use Fertilizer balance Energy modelling Population and labour Cash constraint Land management, crop yield, soil and nutrient loss Objective function

106 108 109 110 111 113 113 114 116 116 119 122 123 125 125 125 126 126 128 130 131 134 135 135 138 141 143 143 144 145 145 146 147 147 149 155 158 159

Chapter 7
7.1 7.2 7.3

Estimating Model Parameters

Introduction Land Labour supply and requirement 7.3.1 Labour supply 7.3.2 Labour requirements 7.4 Crop yields and agricultural technologies 7.4.1 The Technical Coefficient Generator 7.4.2 A statistical analysis of results from TCG 7.5 Sustainability indicators 7.5.1 Soil erosion 7.5.2 Nitrogen balance 7.6 Inputs and outputs of livestock activities 7.7 Grass and wood production 7.7.1 Grass production 7.7.2 Wood production 7.8 Food and fuel requirements 7.8.1 Food requirement and consumption patterns 7.8.2 Fuel: level and composition 7.9 Some empirical evidences 7.9.1 Fertilizer and crop yield 7.9.2 Estimation of soil loss and run-off 7.9.3 Soil conservation and crop yield 7.10 Prices 7.11 Conclusions

Chapter 8
8.1 8.2

Base Run and Sensitivity Analysis

161 161 161 163 169 170 171 173 173 174 175 176 177 179 182 183 183 184 186 188 190 191 192 194 197

8.3 8.4

8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8

Introduction Results of the base model 8.2.1 Land use 8.2.2 Soil conservation 8.2.3 Organic and inorganic fertilizers Livestock Soil erosion and nitrogen balance 8.4.1 Soil erosion 8.4.2 Nitrogen loss Income Sensitivity analysis for some parameters Household-level model 8.7.1 Results of the household model Conclusions

Chapter 9
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6

Discussion of Model Results: Scenario Analysis

Introduction Scenario 1. Removal of subsidy on fertilizer Scenario 2. Introduction of energy saving stoves Scenario 3. Mechanization Scenario 4. Irrigation Scenario 5. Food aid for soil conservation and tree planting 9.6.1 Scenario 5.1 FFW for soil conservation 9.6.2 Scenario 5.2 FFW for tree planting

Chapter 10 Summary and Conclusions

10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5

Introduction 197 Some socio-economic and biophysical features 199 Modelling land use and land management decisions 201 Some observation from the field studies 203 Land use and land management decisions: Results from the base run model 204 10.6 Results of alternative technologies and interventions 206 10.7 Final remarks and policy recommendations 208 References Appendix 1 Appendx 2 Summary of the Linear Programming Model Crop Yield and Soil Loss Functions for Maiaha and Zibanuna 213 227 233

vi

Appendix 3 Appendix 4

Nutrient and Energy Related Data, Prices and Initial Values Results of Sensitivity Tests on Fuelwood Prices and Discount Rates

235 237 239

Nederlandse Samenvatting

vii

List of Tables
Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Table 3.7 Table 3.8 Table 3.9 Table 3.10 Table 3.11 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9 Table 5.10 Table 5.11 Table 5.12 Table 5.13 Table 5.14 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 7.4 Agricultural indicators by region 10 Global estimates of soil degradation, by region and land use 12 Land use in Eritrea, 2001 24 Cultivated area (1,000 ha.) and yields (100 kg/ha.) 1994 2003 26 Indicators of agricultural performance 27 Livestock population by region, 1997 31 Energy demand by fuel type and sector in 1998 33 2 Natural forest vegetation areas of Eritrea by region (km ) 34 Permanent and temporary closures in Eritrea 35 Summary of plantations 36 Soil erosion and deposition in Eritrea 38 Tropical Livestock Units and carrying capacity by region in Eritrea in 1997 42 Population below the poverty line in Eritrea 47 Land and rural population in the Central Highlands, 2000. 69 Family size and household composition, 2002 75 Croplands in the Central Highlands, 2002 76 Soil quality on croplands in Maiaha, Zibanuna and Embaderho, 2002 78 Crop yield (kg/ha), 2001 79 Farmers perception of changes in cereal production and productivity 80 Reasons for yield decline over the past 20 years 81 Labour requirements for crop production 82 The use of manure and chemical fertilizers 86 Farmers perception on the need and extent of terracing on own croplands 87 Ownership of Livestock in the Central Highlands, 2002 88 Ownership of livestock in the Central Highlands, by region 2002 88 Number of livestock and carrying capacity in Maiaha, Zibanuna and Embaderho, 2002 89 Eucalyptus plantations in the study villages, 2002. 90 Total land areas in these study villages by land type 126 Labour availability 127 Labour requirement for constructing stone bunds on different land categories 129 Design criteria for various cropping options in the Technical Coefficient Generator 132

Table 7.5 Table 7.6 Table 7.7 Table 7.8 Table 7.9 Table 7.10 Table 7.11 Table 7.12 Table 7.13 Table 7.14 Table 7.15 Table 7.16 Table 7.17 Table 7.18 Table 7.19 Table 7.20 Table 7.21 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 8.4 Table 8.5 Table 9.1 Table A1 Table A2 Table A3

Cobb-Douglas yield functions (coefficients and t-statistics using Ordinary Least Square regression) 136 Soil loss functions (coefficients and t-statistics using Ordinary Least Square regression) 137 Annual nitrogen inputs via rain and biological fixation, and coefficients of nitrogen transfer 139 Feed requirement, milk production and live weight gain of livestock 142 Model sustainable rangeland utilization. 143 Per capita energy consumption by fuel type for rural areas of the Central Highlands 146 Fertilizer trials for barley and wheat in the highlands of Eritrea 1998 and 1999 148 Yield responses by barley to the application of chemical fertilizer in Zoba Debub, 1998, 149 The Universal Soil Loss Equation adapted for Ethiopia 151 Annual soil loss (t/ha) in Afdeyu catchments 1988-1998 152 Soil loss from different land categories and land use (tons/ha) 153 Rainfall and annual run-off (mm) on experimental plots (19881998, Afdeyu) 154 Annual run-off from different land categories and land use (mm) 154 Descriptive statistics of variables from harvest sample (Barley 1987-1998) 156 Wheat and barley production functions 157 Barley and wheat yields (kg) with and without the application of stone bunds 157 Area occupied by stone bunds 158 Main characteristics of the study villages and values of parameters used in the base model 162 Some results of the base model 165 Number of households by source of labour or oxen for crop cultivation in the Central Highlands 178 Characteristics of the various household categories in Maiaha 179 Simulated levels of cropland (ha) and livestock (head) by type of household in Maiaha 180 Brief description of the different scenarios 184 Summary of the Linear Programming Model 227 Cobb-Douglas yield functions (coefficients and t-statistics using Ordinary Least Square regression) Maiaha village 233 Cobb-Douglas yield functions (coefficients and t-statistics using Ordinary Least Square regression) Zibanuna village 233

Table A4 Table A5 Table A6 Table A7 Table A8

Soil loss functions (coefficients and t-statistics using Ordinary Least Square regression) Maiaha village Soil loss function (coefficients and t-statistics using Ordinary Least Squares regression) Zibanuna village Nutrients and Energy-related data Buying and selling prices used in the model Initial values of some parameters

234 234 235 235 235

xi

List of Figures
The study area Total area cultivated under cereals and pulses in Eritrea Yields of cereals and pulses in Eritrea, 1994-2004 Annual rainfall in Asmara (Central Highlands Zone) Household decision-making Linkages between household resource endowment, household objectives and the various economic activities Figure 5.1 Cropping calendar in the Central Highlands Figure 6.1 Planning period and planning year Figure 6.2 Periods when crop residues are produced and applied for mulching Figure 6.3 Crop production and seed requirement Figure 6.4 Periods where animal power is required for transport of manure, crop and crop residues Figure 7.1 Structure of nitrogen transfer model Figure 7.2 Changes in soil nitrogen for different levels of fertilizer application Figure 7.3 Food consumption patterns in Eritrea Figure 8.1 Simulated land use in Embaderho Figure 8.2 Simulated land use in Maiaha Figure 8.3 Simulated land use in Zibanuna Figure 8.4 Simulated land use by land type: Embaderho Figure 8.5 Simulated land use by land type: Maiaha Figure 8.6 Simulated land use by land type: Zibanuna Figure 8.7 Simulated average soil loss from croplands Figure 8.8 Simulated average soil loss Figure 8.9 Simulated nitrogen loss from croplands Figure 8.10 Simulated per capita income Figure 8.11 Net per capita income: comparison of village and household models Figure A1 Prices of cereals and pulses in Asmara Figure A2 Evolution of livestock prices 1993-2003 Figure A3 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Embaderho under different wood prices Figure A4 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Embaderho under different discount rates Figure A5 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Maiaha under different wood prices Figure A6 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Maiaha under different discount rates Figure 1.1 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2. 7 27 28 29 56 58 83 95 104 106 112 138 140 146 167 167 167 168 168 168 173 174 174 175 180 234 234 238 238 239 239

List of Abbreviations
ARS BEMs CHL DAP EHRS FAO FFW GOE kg km MOA MOEM NGOs NRM quintal RUSLE SSA SWC TCG TLU USLE ZDE ZDW ZM Afdeyu Research Station Bio-economic models Central Highlands Diammonium Phosphate Ethiopian Highlands Reclamation Study Food and Agriculture Organization Food for Work Government of Eritrea Kilogram Kilometer Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Energy and Mines Non-government organizations Natural Resource Management 100 kilogram Revised Soil Loss Equation Sub-Saharan Africa Soil and Water Conservation Technical Coefficient Generator Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU) Universal Soil Loss Equation Zoba Debub East Zoba Debub West Zoba Maekel