Air Itu Anugerah Tuhan

SEMINAR PENGURUSAN RISIKO DALAM PENGURUSAN PROJEK

Dam Break Risk Assessment
12th July 2012 Putrajaya International Convention Centre

By Ir. Dr. Lim Foo Hoat Angkasa Consulting Services Sdn Bhd

Dam Break Risk Assessment

Part 1 Dam Break Analysis and Modeling Part 2 Social Impact Study Part 3 Emergency Response Plan

PART 1 Dam Break Analysis and Modeling

Dam Break Analysis

To assess extent of damage and analyze hydraulic characteristics (velocity, depth, flood wave arrival time) due to failure of dam embankment Part of Emergency Response Requirement For Dam Operators Plan

To prepare an ERP for planning and remedial actions if dam break is inevitable.

Dam Break Analysis

Socio economic impact resulting from occurrence of dam break Dam break modeling results provide emergency information, emergency operation, warning for residents, flood warning

Example of Dam Failures

(Teton Dam)

(Dam failure near Torgou, Germany) )

Sequence of Dam Faliure (Teton Dam)

Methodology of Dam Break Analysis

Numerical Model - 1D, one dimensional model (1D model) MIKE 11, HECRAS, FLDWAV, - 1/2D, one dimensional river and two dimensional flood plain MIKE FLOOD, XP SWMM 2D - 2D flow river and flood plain Parameter / Data input are Manning Mannings n and crosscross-sectional data extracted from the scale of 1: 50 000 topographic maps, and elevation levels (horizontal data) extrapolated from Google Earth.

Methodology of Dam Break Analysis

Choice of Numerical Model - 1D, one dimensional model (1D model) MIKE 11, HECRAS, DAMBRK, FLDWAV, - 1/2D, one dimensional river and two dimensional flood plain MIKE FLOOD, XP SWMM 2D, INFOWORK 2D, SOBEK, ISIS2D - 2D flow river and flood plain, MIKE FLOOD, TUFLOW, SRHSRH-2D, Surface Modeling System SMS Model Selection Based on Budget and Time

Methodology of Dam Break Analysis

Information Required For Dam Break Modeling - Type of dam rockfill earthcore dam, concrete face rockfill dam, concrete dam, etc, - Stage Storage Curve - Type of failure overtopping and piping - Climatic conditions sunny day and probable maximum flood - Breach parameters - breach bottom width and elevation, side slope, initial piping, breach formation time, - By International guidelines - Check using published equations

Methodology of Dam Break Analysis (Scenarios)

Two (2) tailwater conditions will be considered; a) Governed by seawater level Dams (inner forest) far away from coastal area and flood wave attenuated completely Dam catchment too small compared with overall catchment

Methodology of Dam Break Analysis (Scenarios)

Two (2) tailwater conditions will be considered; b) Not governed by seawater level Dams located near coastal area Dam catchment area is large compared to overall downstream catchment

Methodology of Dam Break Analysis (Scenarios)

Two (2) types of dam failure for 2 climatic conditions ; a) Sunny day Overtopping Piping at dam foundation b) Probable maximum flood Overtopping Piping at dam foundation

Dam Break Analysis Flow Chart

Setup HEC-RAS Model

Estimation of Dam Break Hydrograph

Evaluating Breach Characteristics and Sensitivity Analysis

Adopting Dam Break Hydrograph

Flood Routing of Various Dam Break Scenario (1D or 1/2D)

Preparation of Inundation Map

Typical Areas For Dam Break Modeling

Dam and reservoir

Downstream River

Town

Confluence of river enter into main river

Coastal Sea

Salient Features of Typical Dams

Description II III IV Catchment Area PMF Dam: - Type - Dam Height - Dam Crest Level - Storage Capacity at FSL Spillway: - Type of Inlet Weir
-Crest

Information 146 km2 2,250 m3/s Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) 90 m RL 250m 29,900 ML

Centre overflow with Stepped Chute, Roller Bucket Energy Dissipater 100m Single conduit with 4.2m x 4.2m 72m

Length

VI

Diversion - Diameter - Length

Typical Stage Storage Curve

Design PMF (Design Report)

Source: Greater Ipoh Water Supply Scheme II Sg Kinta Dam Project : Design Report Oct 1999

Dam Breach Formation

Sources:Fread, D. L. Lewis, J. M. (1998), MWS FLDWAV Model Theoretical Development and User Documentation, Hydrological Research Laboratory Office of Hydrology, National Weather Services.

Breach Characteristics Based on Guidelines

Breach Characteristics - Published Equations (Width and Time)

Breach Characteristics - Published Equations (Peak Flow)

Dam Break Input Parameter Data Using HEC-RAS Geometric Data

The HECHEC-RAS model consist of 174 cross sections, starting from Dam to river mouth The length of the overall model is approx. 175km. Four (4) zones are classified:
Zone 1: CS169CS169-CS158 (Upper Reach of model) Zone 2: CS157CS157-CS132 (Town to River Confluence) Zone 3: CS131CS131-CS71 (Confluence to River Mouth Area) Zone 4: CS70CS70-CS0 (River Mouth to Coastal Sea)

Dam Break Input Parameter Data

Mannings Roughness, n parameters used for the model set up: River Sections (Typical value 0.085) and Left and Right Floodplain (Typical value 0.12) PMF was used as an Input Hydrograph. The Worst Case Scenario with maximum dam breaching outflow and minimum breach formation time is normally simulated

Major Problems in Dam Break Modeling

Insufficient budget to acquire land, river survey, satellite, IFSAR and LIDAR data Dam break river model not suitable for low flow simulation due to insufficient river data Homogenous survey data (either fine and coarse) are required to avoid instability Rapidly rise dam break outflow hydrograph lead instability

Major Problems in Dam Break Modeling

Hot-start or large initial flow will have to key in the model for simulation Large base flow required for controlling stability Small time step and close grid distance required for controlling stability (Courant FriedrichsLewy condition, CFL condition) - longer simulation time - Insufficient survey data

Design PMF Inflow Hydrograph

Probable Maximum Flood Inflow Hydrograph
2255

Source: Greater Ipoh Water Supply Scheme II Construction of sg Kinta Dam and Associated Works

Dam Breach Plot (Worst Case)

Linear Breach Development

Typical Example of Assessment of Downstream Conditions To Sea Level

Normal Depth (m) 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 0.00002 0.00003 0.00004 0.00005 Water Level (m) at CS 0 -3.27 0.14 4.58 3.2 2.47 1.97 1.49 +1.92 to 1.70 HAT = 1.68 MHWS = 1.20 MHWN = 0.49 MSL = 0.00 MLWN = -0.48 MLWS = -1.19 LAT = -1.75 Tidal Range (m) Near River Mouth Area Tidal Range (m) at Sea

Conclusion: Water Level at River Mouth will not be influenced by Dam Breach Flow

Typical Water Levels at Downstream

1.92m

Result of Dam Break Analysis With PMF

Full Formulation Time (hr) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1 2 3 4 5 Water Surface Elev (m) 76.26 76.26 76.26 76.26 76.26 76.26 72.71 72.61 72.51 70.81 (Selected Spot Level at CH157.00m) Ipoh Town Bank Level (m) Inundated Water Level (m) 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 1.9 1.8 1.7 Not Relevant

Dam Break Outflow Hydrograph Probable Maximum Flood

Dambreak Hydrograph with PMF-Full Formulation Time (0.1 hr)

Dambreak Hydrograph with PMF-Full Formulation Time (0.2 hr)

Dambreak Hydrograph with PMF-Full Formulation Time (0.3 hr)

Dambreak Hydrograph with PMF-Full Formulation Time (0.5 hr)

Result of Dam Break Analysis Dam Break Only

Full Formulation Time (hr) 0.1 0.2 0.3 Water Surface Elev (m) 76.26 77.74 78.09 Town Bank Level Inundated Water (m) Level (m) 70.81 (Selected Spot Level at CH157.00m) 5.45 6.93 7.28

Dam Break Outflow Hydrograph Sunny Day

Sunny Day Kinta Dambreak Hydrograph with Time to Breach (0.1 hr)

Sunny Day Dambreak Hydrograph Time to Breach (0.2 hr)

Sunny Day Kinta Dambreak Hydrograph Time to Breach (0.3 hr)

Use of Dam Break Simulation Results For Inundation Map, Emergency Response Plan
Inundated maps are extended up to the minimum contour line of approx. 20m MSL Usually At downstream reaches where contour is <20m historical flood coverage area is used. Checking results by comparing historical flood areas

Typical Inundation Maps

Part 2 - Socio Economic Study

Objectives of Socio-economic Study Determine the extent of flood damage based on the flood maps at the time of the flood event. Determine the affected spatial areas and scale of damage. Delineate risk zones and flood risks. Recommend risk reduction when a dam breaks.

Approach and Methodology

Field Data Flood map Topography map GIS Statistics

Results and Discussions

Delineation of Flooded Areas

Part 3 Emergency Response Plan

Objectives & Content of ERP

Objectives
safeguard lives & to reduce damage in the event of Dam failure

Contents
Monitoring procedures during emergencies Organizational structure procedures on how to deal with emergencies

MKN Arahan No.20

Purpose: outlines emergency and aid procedures to manage inland disasters by the government
Level I Disaster is localized & not serious Under control & no potential to spread Risk to lives and properties is small No major disruption to daily activities can be managed by authorities at district level

Level II

Disaster affects > 2 districts potential to spread High risk to lives and properties Major disruption to daily activities Complex & involve difficult search & rescue can be managed by authorities at State level
Complex in nature Affect large area or > 2 states Need to be managed at Federal Level

Level III

MKN/ EAP: Level II Agencies

Jawatankuasa Pengurusan dan Bantuan Bencana Negeri Chairman: Chairman: YB. Setausaha Kerajaan Negeri Secretary: Secretary: Pengarah Bahagian Keselamatan Negara (BKN) Negeri Members: Members:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Ketua Polis Negeri Panglima Briged, Briged, ATM Pengarah Bomba dan Penyelamat Negeri Pengarah Kesihatan Negeri Pengarah JKR Negeri Pengarah Jab Kebajikan Masyarakat Negeri Pengarah Penerangan Negeri

MKN/ EAP: Level II Agencies

Members: Members:
8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.

Pengarah Penyiaran Negeri Pengarah Pertahanan Awam Negeri Pengarak JAS Negeri Pengarah Jab Keselamatan dan Kesihatan Pekerjaan Negeri Pengarah Kajicuaca Negeri Pengarah Jabatan Penerbangan Awam Pengarah JPS Negeri Pengarah Jab Penyiasatan Kajibumi Negeri Pengarah JPJ Pengarah Ikatan Relawan Rakyat Malaysia (RELA) Pengurus Syk Telekom Malaysia Bhd (STMB) Negeri Pengurus Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) Negeri

EAP Road Map

KMN to establish a Command & Control Control Committee consist of 2 levels to ensure emergency responds are orderly, direct and effective. 1. Pos Kawalan Tempat Kejadian (PKTK)
Lead by PDRM Establish Communication Network with All Agencies
2.

Pusat Kawalan Operasi Bencana (PKOB)

Setup in District Office, or Rapid Responds Center/ Room in BKN Negeri Establish Complete Communication System in PKOB

EAP Zoning - Categorization

Emergency Teams to be divided into 3 categories for efficient & effective coordination:
1. 2. 3.

Primary Disaster/Rescue Agencies, eg. eg. SMART, PDRM, JBPM, etc Disaster/ Rescue Support Agencies, eg. eg. Civil Defence Department (Jabatan (Jabatan Pertahanan Awam) Awam) Support & Rescue Agencies, eg. eg. JKR, RELA, PBSM, TNB, etc

In addition, the disaster area to be divided into 3 zones:

Red Zones Yellow Zones Green Zones

Disaster Area Zones

Red Zone: Area for
Primary Rapid Respond Units with Special Skills
Media Reporting & Management Center Other Rescue Agencies Civil Defense Dept Mortuary

Yellow Zone: Area for PTTK, Main Rescue Post & Rescue Support Units

ATM
Medical Respond Services

DISASTER ZONE
Operation Area of Search & Rescue Task Force

Rest Area

Entry Zones

Bomba

Operation Post Food Storage/ Supply Unit SMART

Disaster Management Post

PDRM

Victim Counseling Unit

Counseling Center

Support Agencies & Volunteer Organizations

Green Zone: Area for Media, Victim Counseling, Food Supply, Mortuary, Rest & Relevant Support Units

Data Required For Detailed ERP

Land use information used for Safe Area Identification Simulation Results Based on Topographical maps and Google Data For Preliminarily Dam Break Flood Level Detailed Information can be obtained using IFSAR data for selected important urbanized areas and utilities (such as water treatment, power supply, hospital, telecommunication center, etc.)

Pusat Kawalan Msia

YB Menteri (dilantik of YAB PM) Pengerusi J/K Pengurusan & Bantuan Bencana Pusat

Pusat Kawalan Operasi Bencana (PKOB) Bilik Gerakan BKN

Bilek Gerakan BKN SMART Pertahanan JBPN YB SUK Negeri Pengerusi J/K Pengurusan dan Bantuan Bencana Negeri PKOB (Bilik Gerakan BKN Negeri)

Pusat Kawalan Kontingen

Pusat Kawalan Daerah

Pegawai Daerah Pengerusi J/K Pengurusan dan Bantuan Bencana Daerah

PKOB (Bilik Gerakan Pejabat Daerah)

Government Disaster Management Mechanism

Pos Kawalan di Tempat kejadian

Emergency Event

Dam Manager

District Level (Pos Kawalan) Polis Bomba

Dam Office (Site)

Dam Office (HQ)

JPBBN

Dam Companys Emergency Response Team

Notification Procedure

Dam Offices ER Team

Director of Emergency Operation (Executive Director, Dam Company) Alternate/ Deputy Director of Emergency Operation (COO, Dam Company)

Dam Assessment Team

Dam Operation Centre (DOC)

Head Office Operation Centre (HOOC)

Dam Emergency Controller (Dam Manager)

Dam Engineer (Leader) Civil Engineer Mechanical Engineer Electrical & instrumentation Engineer

Dam ET Dam Comm Officer Civil Engineer Mechanical Engineer Elect & instr Engineer Technicians General workers Receptionist

Head Office Emergency Controller (Head O&M Dept)

Head Office ET
Head Offc Comm Officer Manager (Civil) Manager (M&E) Head EQL Head HQL Receptionist

Roles/ Responsibilities
Director of Emergency Operation (ED) Alternate/ Deputy Director of Emergency Operation (COO) Dam Assessment Team overall responsible for directing operations decide on the levels of the emergency Notify the JPBBN of emergency assist DEO take over roll of DEO if ED not available

conduct routine dam inspection (normal time) assess emergency situation and dam conditions during an emergency identify & undertake preventive measures Advise DEO on dam integrity and necessity for evacuation

Roles/ Responsibilities
Dam Engineer Normal Time routine dam inspection advise dam company Mgmt on dam conditions identify and recommend any remedial actions Emergency lead the Dam Assessment Team alert dam company ED/ COO of emergency Initial actions to reduce threats assist the DAT in assessing the conditions set up Dam Operation Centre Update & maintain close liaison with HOOC Alert the district authorities when warranted set up and manage HOOC Alert & dispatch DAT to site Maintain close coco-coordination with DOC Update DEO and Deputy DEO

Dam Emergency Controller (Dam Manager)

Head Office Emergency Controller (Head O&M)

RL 227
RL 226 Evacuation RL 224.6 Danger ( PMF) RL 221.58 Warning ( 1: 500 flood) RL 221.3 Alert ( 1: 100 flood) RL 220 NWL

Typical Emergency Notification Flowchart Overtopping

Head O&M Dam Operator Staff

Typical Emergency Notification Flowchart Overtopping (cont)

99 5 5

Typical Emergency Notification Flowchart Overtopping (cont)

Typical Piping Event

Stage Stage 1 : Alert Stage 2 : Warning Condition Abnormal increase in seepage flowrate Steady increase in flowrate with signs of loss of embankment materials (e.g. muddy coloration, seepage water containing embankment material, etc) with / without signs of wet patches on dam embankment Seepage flowrate remains high and dam shows signs of deformation/ failure

Stage 3 : Danger

Stage 4 : Evacuation Dam failure may be imminent

Typical Structural Failures Event

Abnormal/ excessive embankment deformation Landslides Earthquake failure of critical structures (e.g. spillway), etc. for earthquake Dam Manager immediately call Geological Survey Department to determine magnitude and epicenter The Dam Manager immediately inspect the Dam to determine if there is any structural damage

Typical Structural Failures Event (Cont) Stage of Emergency Stage 1 : Alert Stage 2 : Warning Stage 3 : Danger Stage 4 : Evacuation Condition Structural failure is noted Situation worsens Situation continues to worsens in spite of preventive actions Dam failure may be imminent

Termination of Emergency
no further signs of distress approval of the Dam Assessment Team Dam Emergency Controller and Head Office Emergency Controller to inform Polis, Bomba, District Officers, JPBBN and other relevant authorities

Risk Management
1.

Routine Monitoring/ Surveillance Carry out routine monitoring by Dam Operation Team Refer to Dam O&M Manual Personnel trained to recognize signs of distress

Risk Management (cont)

2. Surveillance by Dam Engineer/ DAT DAT conduct onon-site dam inspection every 3 months inspect: upstream and downstream faces for signs of slope failures, cracks, settlement or seepage spillways for clogging, cracking or leaking seepage water at the seepage chambers for clogging, turbidity, muddy water or increased in flow reservoir and downstream areas for landslides take dam instrument readings and review past instrument readings.

Risk Management (cont)

3. Maintenance routine maintenance especially m&e equipment ensure equipment in good working conditions especially in times of emergencies. 4. Drills to simulate and test the readiness of Dam Company emergency response system Practice makes perfect results of drills analyzed Weakness/ shortcoming identified and solutions to overcome identified

Preventive Measures During Emergencies 1. Imminent Overtopping by Flood Waters

open drain or flood gates to maximum discharge place sandbags along the dam crest to increase freeboard place riprap or sandbags in damaged areas of dam provide erosion protection on downstream slope by placing rip rap or other appropriate material divert flood waters around dam if possible

Preventive Measures During Emergencies

2. Erosion of Dam by Seepage Through the Embankment, Foundation or Abutments plug seepage with riprap, bentonite, bentonite, sandbags, soil, plastic sheeting, etc if the leak is on the upstream face of the dam lower reservoir level until flow decreases to a nonnonerosive velocity or stops leaking place sand and gravel filter over seepage exit area to minimize loss of embankment materials continue lowering the reservoir level until seepage stops or is controlled. Refill reservoir to normal levels only after seepage is repaired

Preventive Measures During Emergencies

3. Slide or Slope Failure on Upstream or downstream Slope or Embankment
lower reservoir water level at a rate and to a safe elevation (seek advise of Dam Engineer) restore lost freeboard by placing sandbags or filling with materials stabilize slide by weighing the toe area with additional soil, rock or gravel

4. Failure of Spillway Structure or outlet

lower the water level to a safe elevation implement temporary measures to protect the damaged structure

Post Emergency and ERP Review

4. Post Emergency
Carry out post mortem to analyze the handling of the emergency and to determine any need for further improvement.

5. ERP Review
review and update once every year at a designated date. followed by staff training on the updated ERP. Any modifications as a result of the update or training exercise shall be attached. The Update, Exercise and Training Form in Appendix E shall be completed and submitted to dam company companys management.

A p p e n d ix E

E M E R G E N C Y R E S P O N S E P L A N FFor O RDam SG SELANG O R DAM U P D A T E , E X E R C IS E A N D T R A IN IN G

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M a n a g e r (E n v iro n m e n ta l/ Q u a lity / L ia is o n ): D a te : .

* T h is fo rm is to b e s u b m itte d to S P L A S H M a n a g e m e n t b y J u ly 1 st o f e v e r y y e a r fo llo w in g th e a p p ro v a l o f th e p la n .

Emergency Response Facilities

Emergency Control Centres
Dam Operation Centre shall be located at the dam site itself where accurate and up to date information and assessment are available on the spot. The Head Office Operation Centre shall be located at Dam Company Companys headquarters.

Dam Operation Centre 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 Telecommunication system consisting of fixed line and mobile telephone systems, facsimile, walkie-talkie, etc Back-up power sources and batteries in case of power failure Back-up lightings Copy of Dam Operation and Maintenance Manual Latest copy of Sg Selangor Dam ERP and Dambreak Study Report Copy of Dam drawings List of contractors and construction machineries contractors to be contacted (also contained in ERP) Inundation map (also contained in ERP) Dam Loud hailer and siren Transportation Land transportation Water transportation 3 4 First aid kits and medical equipment Ready stockpile of construction materials e.g. sandbags, riprap

THANK YOU