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On the Brink:

Whats Next in North Korea

overnor Bill Richardson, chairman of APCO Worldwides Global Political Strategies (GPS), offered a summary of his latest trip to North Korea and an assessment of what to expect from the country in the coming months at APCOs International Advisory Council (IAC) monthly meeting on April 25, 2013. >>
Governor Richardson prefaced this months IAC discussion by noting that while the rhetoric from the North Korean leadership has calmed down lately, this usually is a presage for something bad happening. He expressed concern that North Korea will conduct another underground nuclear test that will undoubtedly trigger additional condemnation from around the world. However, there are probably no more sanctions that can be put on North Korea to punish their actions that are not already in place, from either the multilateral United Nations or on a bilateral level from individual countries. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has offered a dialogue with the North Koreans in exchange for some kind of concession in the nuclear phase. Concessions might include the shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor and an invitation for international energy agency inspectors to visit North Korea. While the North Koreans have not officially rejected this, they have made negative noises regarding the concessions. However, their endgame may be an agreement to enter into a very preliminary dialogue. So what would be the type of forum for this dialogue? The old days of the six-party talks with the United States, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan are pretty much over. The only dialogue that might occur, besides with the United States, is a potential dialogue with China. The big mystery is China and its role with North Korea. China has substantial investments there. They provide a lot of food assistance, particularly humanitarian food aid, gasoline

and they have substantial tourism investments. They do not readily sanction North Korea and they have military cooperation. So China does have leverage over North Korea, but the question is whether China is willing to pressure North Korea to enter into negotiations. From a strategic point of view, why should China help the United States and other countries in the region, including South Korea and Japan, with a potential crisis? The Chinese seem to like the idea of some kind of tension in the region. They are concerned about an enormous U.S. military presence in the region and they are also having some island disputes with Japan and South Korea. If China really wanted to pressure North Korea, it would be significant. Earlier this year the Chinese did help the United States and other countries on the UN Security Council administer the latest round of sanctions on North Korea after one of their missile launches. So China goes back and forth in terms of some type of pressure, but in the end they really have not done as much as they could. Of course, the big danger that always exists in a crisis with North Korea is not a war with the United States or its allies, but with South Korea. A skirmish on the Yellow Sea or a random shooting on a ship could easily provoke a larger crisis. The new leader of South Korea, Park Geun-hye, actually extended an olive branch to North Korea in January, but they shut it down because the they like to test whoever is new in South Korean leadership. But South Korea can play a significant role in helping the United States and their allies start negotiations with North Korea because they are the number one provider of humanitarian aid and food assistance to North Korea. There are also about 50,000 North Korean jobs on the border, in the DMZ, that the South Koreans control. So South Korea can lead a dialogue more impactful than just about anybody. However, the current domestic political situation in South Korea makes it impossible for the president to initiate a dialogue at this time. But even more than the United States, the South Koreans can play a significant role in cooling the North Koreans down and starting the negotiation, but likely not for another six months. A lot of people argue that the North Koreans are just espousing a lot of rhetoric because eventually they will want something. They want food and fuel and they want to land a bargain with the West. This is probably accurate since this has been their modus operandi for the last 15 years, but there is something unusual going on this time.

An untested young leader who has not moved up through the military ranks makes this situation different from the past. Very few people know anything about Kim Jong Un, other than the fact that he speaks English. He does seem comfortable as a political leader, at least giving speeches, but no one knows his political views. He is likely being influenced by some of the harder-line elements of the North Korean military leadership who want most of their budget to go to missiles, nuclear development and to the 1.5 million members of the armed forces. Considerable danger also exists in the potential export of nuclear materials. North Korea does not have any foreign exchange, so in the past, they have exported some of their nuclear materials on the black market to countries like Syria, Pakistan and perhaps Iran. This is a significant threat, especially in regards to Iran, which is in a race to develop its own nuclear resources. So there is the dual concern of North Koreas continued nuclear weapon development for its own purposes and also its exporting of nuclear materials. Kim Jong Un has broadcast to his people that North Koreas two priorities are to continue on its path of nuclear weapon development and to improve the economy of its people. But they cannot do both. North Korea cannot improve its economy unless they shift some of those military resources to the marketplace. They are unwilling to do that, so they are pursuing a path that will eventually squeeze them enormously and compel them to make some policy changes. The issue is how long it is going to take, and how much in control is this young leader who appears to be very untested and very inexperienced. There is reason for concern about the region because North Korea is so unpredictable. North Korea has at least five nuclear weapons. It is enriching uranium, developing its missile capabilities and has 1.5 million men in arms. There are 30,000 American troops on the demilitarized zone Japan, South Korea and the entire region are concerned about the growing militancy there. This is a situation that affects all our allies in Asia. So what do we do about it? Secretary Kerry is right; we have to get into some kind of engagement, but at the same time we have to recognize that we do not know what the North Korean endgame is. The main objective should be to get back to the negotiating table, denuclearizing the peninsula and reducing their weapons.

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