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COMPANY UPDATE

GK

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

BUY

Maintained

Rp1,225

@19/11/04

Mkt. cap. Rp2.61tr / US$287m

INDONESIA

22 November 2004

G O H

Shares issued: 2,132m

Coal-powered growth

Mining

Robert Adair +62 21 515-1330 ext 184 - adair.robert@gkgoh.com

GENERAL INFORMATION

Excellent growth prospects. PT Tambang Batubara


Bukit Asam (PTBA) is Indonesias fourth largest coal
producer. It is set for a period of prolonged expansion.
Current growth is coming from higher thermal coal prices
and increasing sales to the open market. Further growth will
come from the resolution of railway transportation
bottlenecks, with long-term development prospects coming
from coal sales to mine-mouth power stations.

Substantial coal reserves. The company has 350m


tonnes of coal reserves with an average quality of 5,950
Kcal/kg. In addition, it has 1.5bn tonnes of mineable reserves
and an estimated 7.3bn of coal resources. Based on the
350m coal reserves, EV/reserve is US$0.50/tonne,
substantially below the US$1.80/tonne for Bumi Resources
(BUMI IJ, Rp750, Hold).

Power station projects will maximise reserve


usage. PTBA plans to participate in three mine-mouth
power stations that will enable the company to utilise coal
reserves of relatively low quality. Pressure on the balance
sheet will be minimised as participation in these projects
will be through minority stakes in JVs.

Acquisitions should provide additional growth.


PTBA may acquire a domestic coal company with exportquality coal deposits that can be sold on the open market.
As the former industry regulator, PTBA has unmatched
knowledge of the domestic market. Our forecasts do not
assume any acquisition, but we expect any acquisition will
enhance the companys growth prospects immediately.

Inexpensive. Despite the recent rise in PTBAs share price,


the stock remains inexpensive on a P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/
reserve and DCF basis. Our immediate target price of
Rp1,900 values PTBA at 10.0x FY05 P/E, still a sizeable
discount to our projected growth rate for the company.

Sector .............................................................................................. Coal Mining


Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) .............................................. 934.03 @22/11/04
Bloomberg / Reuters .............................................................. PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK
Shares issued @Rp500 par ..................................................................... 2,132m
Market capitalisation .............................................................................. Rp2.61tr
Estimated free float .................................................................................. Rp0.7tr
Book NAV/share ........................................................................................ Rp744
Monthly turnover ............................................................................... Rp175.8bn

FORECASTS
FY end Dec 31
2003
Turnover (Rp bn) .......................................... 2,285
EBITDA (Rp bn) ............................................... 336
Pretax Profit (Rp bn) ....................................... 315
Net Profit (Rp bn) ........................................... 246
EPS (Rp) ......................................................... 107
Change (%) ................................................ +28%
Dividend/Share (Rp) ......................................... 58
Cash Flow/Share (Rp) ..................................... 137
Dil. P/E (x) ..................................................... 11.5
P/CFPS (x) ....................................................... 8.9
EV/EBITDA (x) ................................................. 6.0
Dividend Yield (%)) ..................................... 4.7%
Net Cash/(Debt) (Rp bn) ................................. 595
Net Gearing (%) .............................................. Nil

2004F
2,602
601
528
374
162
+52%
88
192
7.5
6.4
2.7
7.2%
997
Nil

2005F 2006F
2,933 3,212
628
702
615
700
432
491
188
213
+15% +14%
102
116
217
240
6.5
5.7
5.7
5.1
3.0
3.6
8.3%
9.2%
723
108
Nil
Nil

SHARE PRICE
1300

1.45
1.40

1200

1.35
1100

1.30
1.25

1000

1.20
900
1.15
800

1.10
1.05

700

1.00
600

0.95

500
N
D
J
F
M
A
TAMBANG BATUBARA BUKIT ASAM TBK
REL TO JCI(R.H.SCALE)

0.90
M

Source: DATASTREAM

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)


Period
1 Month
3 Months
Share price ............................. +29.7
+71.4
Relative to JCI ......................... +20.4
+47.5

12 Months
+108.7
+55.0

Share prices as at 19 November 2004


G. K. Goh Research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Research Direct, Multex and www.gohdirect.com

CONTENTS
3

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

BACKGROUND

PTBAS COAL OPERATIONS

6
7
8
8
9
9
10
10
11

Mine sites
Tanjung Enim
Ombilin
Coal reserves
Transportation
Long-term contracts
Potential acquisition
Mine-mouth power stations
Coal briquettes

12

FINANCIALS

12
14
15

Profit forecasts
Balance sheet
Capex

17

VALUATIONS

18

APPENDIX: INDONESIAS POWER REQUIREMENTS

19
Backcover

Disclaimer
Analysts Coverage

INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Solid prospects. PTBA is Indonesias fourth largest coal producer, with
substantial coal reserves that can drive volume increases for many years to
come. We project that small volume increases combined with increasing sales
to the open market will provide net income growth of around 15% p.a. in
FY05 and FY06. While volume increases are likely to be modest over FY0406, more substantial increases are likely once: 1) railway bottlenecks are
resolved; and 2) shipments can be made to new power station projects in
which PTBA is the minority partner.
Financially strong. As at Sep 04, PTBA had cash reserves of Rp914bn and
no debt. The company has minimal capex requirements, given that
infrastructure capacity at its main Tanjung Enim mine and port facilities are
well above existing production levels. Going forward, the company has plans
to acquire a domestic coal operator, and to participate in power station projects.
Our projections indicate that these can be achieved with minimal strain on the
balance sheet. The companys dividend payout ratio of above 50% will not be
threatened.
Substantial coal reserves. PTBA currently has 350m tonnes of
"transportable" coal, or coal with an average calorific content of 5,950 Kcal/
kg. This is the amount of coal that the company believes can be profitably
shipped and sold on the open market. However, PTBA also has 1.5bn tonnes
of mineable reserves, predominantly of lignite and low-grade coal, which has
been fully explored and qualified. Total coal reserves within its concession
areas are estimated at 7.3bn tonnes. Based on the 350m tonnes of reserve,
PTBA trades at an EV/reserve of US$0.50/tonne, substantially below the
US$1.80/tonne for Bumi Resources and the US$1.90-2.30/tonne range for
listed Australian thermal coal producers.
Power station projects will maximise reserve usage. PTBA plans to
participate in three mine-mouth power stations that will allow the company to
tap coal reserves of relatively low quality that may be unprofitable when
transportation costs are factored in. Pressure on the balance sheet will be
minimised since participation in the projects is through minority stakes. PTBAs
main role will be to provide fuel to the power stations. If all three projects take
off, they will eventually provide demand for 13.0m tpa of coal, with the first
incremental sales made in FY08. As two of the power stations are located
close to PTBAs reserves in South Sumatra, power can be easily supplied to
the main domestic power market in Java via the PLN grid.
Future acquisitions. PTBA is interested in acquiring a domestic coal
producer to boost production. Criteria for any acquisition include: 1) existing
production should provide a noticeable boost to PTBAs current production.
We take this to mean production above 2.0m tpa; 2) the average quality of the
reserves must be above 6,000 Kcal/kg, meaning of sufficient quality to be
sold on the open market; 3) production should not be committed under existing
contracts. PTBA would like to be free to sell the coal as it likes; 4) the acquisition
should immediately enhance its earnings growth; and 5) the acquisition should
ideally cost less than US$40m, in order to ensure a low level of gearing.

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

The main target group identified by PTBA is companies formed under the
first- and second-generation Coal Contract of Work (CCOW) agreements. A
total of 11 companies were formed under first-generation agreements over
FY81-91 while 18 were formed under second-generation agreements in FY94.
As PTBA was the Indonesian coal regulator until FY95, it has an in-depth
understanding of the terms and requirements of each contract. PTBA has
identified a number of target companies but - as there is no firm timetable our forecasts do not assume any acquisition.
Undemanding valuations. PTBA is inexpensive on 6.5x and 5.7x P/E,
and 3.0x and 3.6x EV/EBITDA for FY05 and FY06 respectively. It is also trading
at a 30% discount to our DCF value of Rp1,741. Its current EV/reserve valuation
of US$0.50/tonne based on reserves of 350m is significantly below BUMIs
US$1.80/tonne. Our price target is Rp1,900, which prices the stock at 10.0x
FY05 P/E, still at a sizeable discount to its projected growth rate of 15% p.a.
for FY05-06.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

BACKGROUND
PTBA is Indonesias fourth largest coal producer. It was established by the
Indonesian government in Mar 81, and was subsequently merged with another
state-owned coal company in Oct 90 to become Indonesias only state-owned
coal producer.
In addition to its own coal mining operations, PTBA acted as the domestic
coal regulator on behalf of the Indonesian government until FY95. In this capacity,
it negotiated and awarded many of the first- and second-generation coal contracts
used to kick-start coal mining activity in Indonesia.
PTBA was listed on the JSX in Dec 02, with the government selling 347.4m
shares (16.3%) at Rp575 each. Some 173.25m warrants were also issued (one
for every two IPO shares), exercisable at Rp675 until 22 Dec 05. The government
completed a placement of 266.4m shares (12.5%) at Rp650 each in Jul 04.
The Indonesian government currently owns 71.2% of PTBA. This stake will
be diluted to 65.8% upon full conversion of the warrants. PTBAs warrants are the
most actively traded on the JSX.
Exhibit 1: PTBAs current share ownership
No. of shares
% of shares
- Preferred shares
1
- Ordinary shares
1,517,627,999
71.2%
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Public
Ordinary
shares
613,872,000
28.8%
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
2,131,500,000
100%
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Indonesian government

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

PTBAS COAL OPERATIONS


Mine sites
PTBA has two operating coal mines, Tanjung Enim and Ombilin, located in
Sumatra. Tanjung Enim is the larger operation, and is an open pit mine. PTBA
also operated an open pit mine at Ombilin until FY02, when the mine was closed
after 20 years of production. The only production at Ombilin now comes from an
underground mine. Coal from Tanjung Enim is shipped by rail to the Tarahan
port and the Kertapati pier. Ombilin is serviced by the port at Teluk Bayur.
Exhibit 2: Location of PTBAs coal operations

THAILAND
Kedah

KUALA LUMPUR
MEDAN

Binjai

Tebingtinggi

Kelang

Kisaran
D. Toba

Tarutung
Sibolga
P. Nias

SINGAPORE

Dumai

Padangsidempuan

Duri

BA
PT ORT
P
EX

PEKANBARU
Bangkinang
Payakumbuh
Bukittinggi
P. Siberut

PADANG

Sawahlunto
Muaro

Rengat

PTBA
EXPOR
T

Pranap

PTBA

JAMBI

Muara Bungo
Mentok

P. Bangka

Banko

Pangkalpinang

PALEMBANG
Toboali
Lubuklinggau

BENGKULU

PTBA

Lahat

Muaraenim

Baturaja

Kotabumi

BANDAR LAMPUNG

Metro

JAKARTA
Bekasi

Indramayu
Purwakarta

Cirebon
Kuningan Tegal

Sukabumi BANDUNG
Tasikmalaya

SURALAYA
POWER PLANTS (3.400 MW)

Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

Tj. Jati

Jepara
Sumenep

Tuban
Demak
Gresik
Pekalongan SEMARANG
Ngawi
Purwokerto
Magelang
Madiun Jombang
Gombong
Surakarta
Pasuruan
Kediri
Malang Probolinggo
YOGYAKARTA

SURABAYA
Banyuwangi

Tanjung Enim
Tanjung Enim is PTBAs main mine site, covering an area of 72,230 ha. The
site contains 16 separate mining sites, with the main mining locations located at
Air Laya Pit, North Muara Tiga Besar Utara, South Muara Tiga Besar and West
Banko. The existing mining infrastructure at Tanjung Enim can handle production
of up to 16.0m tpa. As the companys forecast FY04 production is only 9.7m
tonnes, mining activity can increase sizeably before further investment in facilities
is required.
Production at Tanjung Enim is carried out by PTBAs own staff as well as two
contract-mining companies. PTBA itself uses a continuous rotating bucket system
developed in Germany. An electrically-powered rotary system drives a bucket
wheel excavator (BWE), which scoops up the coal and deposits it on a conveyor
belt that transports it to storage areas. This continuous bucket system can move
5.0m tpa of coal and is used at the Air Laya site in Tanjung Enim.
Exhibit 3: Forecast PTBA coal production for FY04-06
Production
FY04
FY05
FY06
PTBA
4.5
4.7
5.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Contract Mining
5.2
5.5
5.8
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Third Parties
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
9.9
10.4
11.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company

The remaining production at Tanjung Enim is split evenly between PT


Pamapersada Nustantara, which is owned by United Tractors (UNTR IJ, Rp1,925,
Buy) and PT Sumber Mitra Jaya. Both companies use the more conventional
mechanical shovel and dump truck system. In PTBAs view, this process involves
a higher degree of maintenance and is, therefore, better handled by contractmining companies with the maintenance and servicing capability. The two contractmining companies operate at 15 locations within the Tanjung Enim site. Since
PTBA is producing near its capacity, any future increase in output is likely to
come from the contract-mining companies. Planned increases for the next three
years are relatively modest and will not require the contract-mining companies to
significantly increase their operations.
Overall production costs at Tanjung Enim are very low, mainly because of an
average strip ratio of 4.0x, and partly because of the BWE system. Current cash
production costs are US$16 per tonne. In addition, PTBA pays a 4% royalty to
the government.
Output from Tanjung Enim reaches the market via two separate railway lines
to the Tarahan port and Kertapati pier, which have a combined handling capacity
of 14.5m tpa. The Tarahan port is PTBAs main transportation hub and can handle
12.0m tpa of coal. The bulk of the coal meant for the PLTU Suralaya power plant
is shipped from this port. The Kertapati pier was enlarged in FY02 and now has
capacity to handle 2.5m tpa of coal. It handles domestic shipments, as well as
shipments to Tenaga Nasional Berhad in Malaysia.

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

Ombilin
Ombilin is located in Sawahlunto, West Sumatra. PTBA operated an open pit
mine at Ombilin until FY02, when the site was closed after 20 years of production.
The only production at Ombilin now comes from an underground mine, which
produces 0.1m tpa of coal with an average calorific value of 6,900 Kcal/kg.
Although this coal has a current market value of US$45/tonne, the mine is
unprofitable as production costs are Rp0.7m/tonne (US$77/tonne).
PTBA is negotiating with a Chinese contract-mining company to raise
production at the underground mine to 0.8m tpa. At this level, the Chinese
company estimates that production costs would fall below US$30/tonne, turning
the mine profitable. PTBA is negotiating to buy the coal at fixed prices, leaving
the operational risk to the Chinese company. If development of the mine does
occur, it will take up to four years for production to increase significantly. We
have not factored any development into our forecasts.

Coal reserves
PTBA has total coal resources of 7.3bn tonnes, of which 1.5bn tonnes have
been certified by International Mining Consultants Ltd as being economically
viable for mining. However, PTBA believes that only 350m tonnes of the 1.5bn
tonnes are of sufficient quality (> 5,900 Kcal/kg) for sale on the open market. We
have, therefore, used this figure for our EV/reserve calculation, which provides a
reserve life of 35 years based on FY04 production levels.
PTBA believes that both the economically transportable and economically
mineable figures could be increased if the company made a concerted effort to
raise reserve levels. The company has recently been exploring deposits at its
Tanjung Enim site in conjunction with NEDO-Japan.
Exhibit 4: Classification of PTBAs coal into five major brands
Coal Brand

CV
TM
IM
Ash
(Kcal/kg, adb)
(%, ar)
(%, adb)
(%, adb)
BA58
5,800
28
15.0
8.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA59
5,850
28
14.5
8.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA63
6,300
21
11.5
6.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA67
6,650
18
9.0
6.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA70
7,000
13
6.5
6.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company

PTBA divides its coal output into five brands. From the companys production
projection of 9.7m tonnes for FY04, we estimate that 7.3m tonnes are BA58 and
BA59 coal, and 2.4m tonnes are BA63, BA67 and BA70 coal. PTBA does not
provide a breakdown of reserves by brand, but states that its overall reserves
have a calorific content of 5,950 Kcal/kg. This is identical to the stated average
reserve quality of Bumis coal reserves from Arutmin and KPC.
PTBA also has sizeable coal reserves with a calorific content of below 5,800
Kcal/kg, including a substantial amount of lignite. These reserves may not be
commercially mineable once transportation costs are factored in. The company
believes that its planned involvement in mine-mouth power stations is ideal for
monetarising the reserves. The three mine-mouth power stations that it is interested
in will use low-grade coal, including lignite.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

Transportation
Almost all of PTBAs coal is transported by two railroad lines operated by
Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI), the state-owned railway company. Capacity on the
420km Tarahan line is 7.1m tpa, while that on the shorter 120km Kertapati line is
1.5m tpa. Traffic at these two lines represents a bottleneck, given that existing
facilities at Tanjung Enim can handle 16.0m tpa, and there is a combined capacity
of 14.5m tpa at the two ports of Tarahan and Kertapati.
PTBA is in discussions with KAI and PLN to form a JV to renovate the railways
and expand capacity. Since KAI cannot fund this work, a JV is the best solution,
particularly as 95% of existing shipments are coal-related. PTBA submitted initial
plans to the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises in Jul 04, which have been
approved. The company has commissioned a detailed feasibility study that will
be re-submitted to the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises and the Ministry of
Transportation. PTBA is hopeful that this process can be completed by 1H05.
This feasibility study will be used to secure debt financing.
Exhibit 5: Work needed on the Tarahan and Kertapati railway lines
Stage
I. Upgrade Track

Timing
Already started

Description
Once the JV is finalised, work can be accelerated on
track replacement and lessening the curve on certain
sections of the track.

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

II. Increase Engine Traction

FY05-08

Train locomotives will be repaired or replaced to


increase pulling capacity from 45 wagons to 60
wagons. Additional wagons will be provided.

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

III. Add Long Sidings

FY05-08

Both lines are single-tracked. At present, there are


crossing lines at every 30km on average. The number
of crossing points will be increased, up to a frequency
of 15km for certain sections of the track.

Source: Company

The cost for improvements to both lines is estimated at Rp1.6tr. Work is


expected to stretch from Jan 05 to Dec 08, with the lines remaining in use while
the repairs are in progress. Upon completion, track capacity on the two lines will
increase by 72% to 15m tpa (12.5m tpa + 2.5m tpa).

Long-term contracts
There have been concerns about the high percentage of PTBAs production
contracted to PLN, Indonesias state electricity company. In Jan 94, PTBA entered
into an agreement to provide coal to the Bukit Asam power station at Tanjung
Enim, which is 100%-owned and operated by PLN. PTBA currently provides all
the coal (1.2m tpa) required by the power station, at Rp204,000 per tonne. In Oct
02, PTBA entered into a 10-year agreement to provide coal to the Suralaya power
station in West Java, which is operated by PT Indonesia Power, a subsidiary of
PLN. The selling price was Rp234,000/tonne for up to 6.1m tpa of coal for FY03.
Selling prices for subsequent years are to be negotiated annually. A rate of
Rp244,200 was negotiated for FY04.
At the time of negotiation, these contracts made commercial sense. For
example, the open market price for coal of 5,900 Kcal/kg was US$19/tonne. It
was only with the strong uptrend of coal prices in the past two years that the
contracts have become less attractive.

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

Exhibit 6: Coal sales by long-term contracts and to the open market (m tpa)
FY04
FY05
FY06
PLTU Suralaya
5.8
5.6
5.3
PLTU
Bukit
Asam
1.2
1.2
1.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Open market
2.9
3.6
4.5
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
9.9
10.4
11.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: GKG estimates

PTBA plans to reduce the amount of coal it sells to Suralaya, by exploiting


certain clauses in the original contract. With a current spread of over US$15/
tonne between the contract price and open market price, even a small decrease
would have a beneficial effect on PTBAs profitability.
In addition to the two domestic contracts, PTBA has contracts to provide 0.5m
tpa to Tenaga Nasional Berhad in Malaysia for five years, and 0.5m tpa to Taiwan
Power Company. Pricing for both contracts is negotiated annually in the first half
of the year. The coal quality specified in the Tenaga contract is 5,900 Kcal/kg,
currently priced at US$38/tonne. The coal quality specified for the Taiwan Power
Company is 6,700 Kcal/kg, currently priced at US$43.37/tonne.

Potential acquisition
PTBA is actively looking for domestic coal mining companies to acquire, and
currently has a bid for a coal mining company in Kalimantan that could be
completed by Dec 04. Our forecasts have not factored in this acquisition, but we
believe any acquisition would be immediately earnings-accretive. This is because
the company has stated that it is looking for a coal-mining operation with exportquality (above 6,000 Kcal/kg) coal and free production (i.e. production not locked
in by contracts). The company has enough cash to cover the acquisition and its
capex plans, as well as to maintain its dividend payout at 50%.
Prior to FY95, PTBA was not only a coal producer but was the regulator for all
the coal mines in Indonesia, negotiating many of the first- and second-generation
coal contracts of works. This means that the company has excellent knowledge
of not just the geology of different coal-mining areas, but of the particular features
of each contract. This should provide an advantage in any negotiation. PTBAs
relationship with the government is another advantage when it comes to resolving
contractual issues.

Mine-mouth power stations


PTBA currently provides coal to two mine-mouth power stations in which it
does not have any investment. The Bukit Asam power plant has capacity for 4x65
MW and consumes 1.2m tpa of coal. The Ombilin power plant has capacity for
2x100 MW and consumes 0.5m tpa. Both power stations are 100%-owned by
PLN.
PTBA plans to become a JV partner in other power stations, close to its reserves
in South Sumatra and Riau Province. The rationale is to utilise coal reserves that
may be of insufficient quality for sale on the open market, once transport costs
are taken into account. Indonesia is already suffering from power shortages, and
needs significant increases in power generation capacity. Increased power is likely
to come from coal and gas projects (see Appendix A).

10

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

The company currently plans involvement in three power station projects.


Our forecasts have factored in the associated investment costs. PTBA will be
taking minority stakes in the JVs, with the investments being funded by debt.
None of the projects should be consolidated in the companys financial statements.
Exhibit 7: Prospective mine-mouth power projects
Project
Banjarsari

Description
The Banjarsari power station at Tanjung Enim will be a 2x100 MW plant. PTBA is part
of a consortium shortlisted as operator for the power station. PTBA will have a 41%
stake, with the other parties being PJB (a PLN subsidiary) and a company called
Navigate Indonesia Innovativ. Estimated cost of the project is US$200m, to be funded
by 70% debt and 30% equity. This would represent an initial investment of US$25m.
If accepted as the winning consortium, PTBA believes that it would have to make its
investment in 2H05, with construction in 2H05 and completion in 1H08. PTBA
estimates that this power station would need 1.0m tpa of coal, of an expected quality
of less than 5,800 Kcal.

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Tanjung Enim

In Sep 04, PTBA signed a Memorandum of Agreement with PLN and a Chinese
electricity company for a 4x600 MW power station at Tanjung Enim, to produce power
for the Java grid. The project will be competed in two stages. A detailed feasibility
study will not be completed until Dec 05, and any investment would be in FY06, at
the earliest. Total cost for the first stage is estimated at US$2bn (25% equity and
75% debt). PTBAs planned share of the equity is 20%, which means a total investment
of US$100m. We have assumed an initial equity investment of US$50m in 2H06. The
power station is expected to use lignite quality coal. If it commences in 1H06,
completion would be in 1H09, at the earliest.

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Cirenti

At Cirenti, Riau Province, PTBA has completed a feasibility study for a 2x250 MW
power station which would utilise reserves at its 183,820ha concession in Riau.
PTBA will take a minority stake in a JV with Indonesia Power and the Province of
Riau. Estimated cost of the project is US$500m. PTBA will provide the coal, but will
not be involved in day-to-day operations. PTBA estimates that this power station
would need 3.0m tpa of coal, of lignite quality. Our understanding is that the project
would be funded through 70% debt and 30% equity. This would represent an initial
investment of US$50m. We have assumed PTBA makes an initial investment of
US$25m in 2H05, and a further investment of US$25m in 1H06. Construction may
start in 1H06 and end in 1H09.

Source: Company

If all three projects are initiated, demand for coal from PTBAs concessions
will rise by 13.0m tpa, of primarily low-quality coal which may not otherwise be
utilised. The first incremental shipments could commence in FY08. PTBA believes
that it can earn a gross margin of at least 15% from coal sales made to these
mine-mouth power stations.

Coal briquettes
In FY93, the Ministry of Mines and Energy embarked on an initiative to develop
coal briquettes as an alternative energy source for SMEs and home industries. To
support the initiative, PTBA built three plants at Tanjung Enim, Lampung and
Gresik, with a combined capacity of 135,000 tonnes p.a. However, the use of coal
briguettes has been subdued, and PTBA sold only 21,000 tonnes in FY03. The
briquette operation has been losing roughly Rp20bn p.a. in recent years. PTBA
has recently diversified into wooden charcoal and coconut shell charcoal
briquettes, and believes the operation will break even in FY04.

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

11

FINANCIALS
Profit forecasts
Revenue growth will be modest in the next few years through small increases
in volume and a higher percentage of sales to the open market. Our forecasts
assume the company sells 9.9m tonnes of coal in FY04, increasing to 10.4m
tonnes in FY05 and 11.0m tonnes in FY06. The increases will be made possible
by the addition of rolling stock on the Kertapati line. Our forecasts do not include
any contribution from acquisitions. More substantial increases in volume should
become evident in FY07 and FY08 as the combined capacity of the Tarahan and
Kertapati lines climbs to 15.0m tpa.
PTBA currently buys 0.2m tpa of low-quality coal from a non-related coal
mining company in Kalimantan. It blends this coal with higher-grade coal from
its own mines to bring the average quality to 5,900 Kcal/kg, and sells it to the
Suralaya power station. This enables PTBA to maximise the amount of BA67 and
BA70 coal it sells to the open market.
Exhibit 8: Revenue assumptions for FY04-06
FY04
FY05
FY06
Own production
9.7
10.2
10.8
Brought
in
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
9.9
10.4
11.0
Sold to:
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU Suralaya
5.8
5.6
5.3
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU
Bukit
Asam
1.2
1.2
1.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Open market
2.9
3.6
4.5
Selling
Price:
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU Suralaya
Rp244,200/tonne
Rp256,400/tonne
Rp269,200/tonne
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU
Bukit
Asam
Rp204,000/tonne
Rp208,000/tonne
Rp212,000/tonne
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Open market
US$40/tonne
US$40/tonne
US$40/tonne
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company, GKG estimates

For FY05 and FY06, we have used a US$40/tonne price for the thermal coal
that PTBA will sell on the open market. Our assumptions are in line with industry
expectations that thermal coal prices will remain high until supply can respond
to the surge in demand. One of the main arguments for higher prices over the
long term is continued economic growth in China, causing the country to go
from being an exporter to a net importer of thermal coal. The current level of oil
prices will also force energy users to shift away from oil usage, as demonstrated
in Indonesias domestic power generation industry.
We are forecasting total production costs of under US$22 per tonne for PTBA,
helped by an average strip ratio of 4.0x, a royalty payment of 4% and relatively
low selling costs. This is the combined cost of PTBAs own production and
payments to contract-mining companies. Transportation is a major cost at US$46/tonne. We are factoring in slightly higher electricity and fuel costs in FY05 and
FY06, but these only account for 7% of PTBAs COGS and 10% of COGS for the
contract-mining companies.

12

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

PTBAs maximum corporate tax rate is 30%, well below the 45% for Bumi on
its KPC operations. (Bumi will continue to pay 45% tax until it divests 51% of its
KPC operation to domestic companies.)
PTBA has been working hard to reduce inefficiencies and improve its
operational profitability. The company cut headcount from 4,510 in FY00 to 4,031
at Dec 03. In 9M04, it further cut the number to 3,584. This was done primarily
through an early redundancy programme, with PTBA taking a Rp51bn charge.
The company would like to cut headcount further, not through more redundancy
programmes but natural attrition. We have not assumed any further charges.
Exhibit 9: Profit forecasts (Rp bn)
FY end Dec 31
2003
2004F
2005F
2006F
Turnover
2,285
2,602
2,933
3,212
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
First half
1,022
1,119
1,475
1,606
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Second half
1,263
1,483
1,458
1,606
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
EBITDA
336
601
628
702
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Depreciation
(65)
(65)
(65)
(60)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Operating profit
271
536
563
642
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net interest & invt. income
45
36
43
46
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Associates
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Exceptionals & others
(0)
(43)
10
12
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Pretax profit
315
528
615
700
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Taxation
(68)
(152)
(181)
(206)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minority interests
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net profit
246
374
432
491
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company, GKG estimates

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

13

Balance sheet
PTBAs balance sheet is currently strong, with Rp914bn of cash and no debt
as at 30 Sep 04. Receivables averaged just over 40 days, with the bulk owed by
PLN and its subsidiary, Indonesia Power. This has been the average in recent
years, and PTBA has not had a bad-debt problem with either company.
As at Sep 04, PTBA had a provision reverse of Rp101bn relating to
environmental protection and reclamation at the Ombilin open pit mine. The
company believes that all costs associated with the closure of this open pit mine
will be settled in FY05, estimated at Rp50bn. This would allow the write-back of
Rp51bn. We have not factored this possibility into our forecasts.
The company will be investing in several sizeable projects over FY05-07,
through minority stakes in joint ventures. As such, we believe it can maintain a
net cash position through to Dec 06. This may change if PTBA acquires another
Indonesian coal company. We believe that any acquisition will be below US$50m
in size, and would not require the company to take on significant debt.
Exhibit 10: Balance sheet (Rp bn)
FY end Dec 31
2003
2004F
2005F
2006F
Receivables
525
376
385
427
Stocks
152
122
125
139
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Cash & near cash
595
997
723
108
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other current assets
24
21
21
21
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Current assets
1,296
1,517
1,255
694
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Payables
75
79
80
89
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Debt
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other current liabilities
274
296
307
310
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Current liabilities
349
374
387
399
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net
current
assets/(liabilities)
947
1,143
868
295
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Fixed assets
528
508
523
543
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Investments & associates
480
1,280
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other LT assets
206
221
216
214
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Long-term debt
(0)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other liabilities
(162)
(163)
(163)
(163)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total net asset value
1,519
1,708
1,924
2,169
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Capital
1,066
1,066
1,066
1,066
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Reserves
446
633
848
1,093
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minority
interest
8
10
10
10
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Shareholders funds & MI
1,519
1,708
1,924
2,169
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company, GKG estimates

14

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

Capex
With its existing facilities able to handle production of 16.0m tpa, PTBA believes
that routine capex will amount to only Rp60bn p.a. However, additional investment
costs will stem from its probable participation in three mine-mouth power station
projects, and in the joint venture to expand capacity on the two railway lines in
South Sumatra.
Exhibit 11: Probable PTBA investments during FY05-07
Project

FY05

FY06

FY07

Description

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

S. Sumatra Railway JV

15.8

30% equity stake in Rp1.6tr railway JV funded by


70:30 debt/equity

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Minemouth - Cirenti

25.0

25.0

30% equity stake in US$500m power station


funded by 70:30 debt/equity

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Minemouth - Banjarsari

12.5

12.5

24% equity stake in US$200m power station


funded by 70:30 debt/equity

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Minemouth - Tanjung Enim

50.0

50.0

20% equity stake in US$2bn power station


funded by 75:25 debt/equity

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Total Cost (US$ m)

53.3

87.5

50.0

Source: GKG estimates

Exhibit 12: Cash flow (Rp bn)


FY end Dec 31
2003
2004F
2005F
2006F
Pretax
315
528
615
700
Depn & non-cash adj
65
65
65
60
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Tax
(68)
(152)
(181)
(206)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Cash from operations
312
442
499
553
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Chg in working capital
(82)
115
(10)
(46)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Investing
activities
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Fixed
assets,
net
(106)
18
(80)
(80)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Investment, net
(480)
(800)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other
33
3
6
1
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Financing
activities
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Issue of shares
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Dividends
(124)
(188)
(217)
(246)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minorities
&
others
(21)
13
8
2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Change in net cash
12
402
(273)
(616)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net cash/(debt), b/f
583
595
997
723
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net cash/(debt), c/f
595
997
723
108
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Company, GKG estimates

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

15

Exhibit 13: Comparison of PTBA and BUMI

Factor

PTBA

BUMI

Annual Production (m tpa)

FY04F: 10.0m tpa


FY08F: 20.0m tpa
Our FY08 assumption is based on the resolution of
PTBAs transportation bottleneck and the acquisition
of a domestic coal company with c. 4m tpa
production. If the three planned mine-mouth power
stations are completed, PTBA could move to
production of 33m tpa by FY2012.

FY04F: 37.5m tpa


FY08F: 68.5m tpa
Bumi is underachieving on its original FY04 target
of 43.5m tpa. The company is attempting a rapid
build-up of annual production, and has given an
eventual target of 68.5m tpa.

% of Production exported

FY04F: 30%
FY08F: 65%
PTBA is currently selling 70% of its production to
PLN under long-term contracts. However, this
percentage should drop in future years with small
decreases in shipments to PLN, additional
production from existing mines, and the acquisition
of a domestic coal company with export-grade coal.

FY04F: 97%
FY08F: 97%
Bumi currently exports nearly all its coal, and we
expect this to continue in future years.

Ownership

71.2% Government
28.8% Public
We believe another placement of c.10% of PTBA
shares will be completed in FY05, with further
placements beyond that. The Indonesian
government owns one Golden Share.

52.4% Public

30% for all operations


As per the majority of Indonesian companies,
PTBAs maximum tax rate is 30%.The company is
not making substantial capex investments that it can
offset against tax.

30% for Arutmin


45% for Kaltim Prima Coal
Bumi is currently being taxed at 45% on its KPC
operations, since KPC has yet to fulfill the
requirement to divest 51% of its shares to domestic
parties.

Location

Sumatra
Mine-mouth power stations located close to PTBAs
main Tanjung Enim mine in South Sumatra can
easily supply the main Java-Bali grid.

Kalimantan
KPC and Arutmin are well-positioned for export
markets, through their proximity to ports and their
position relative to the North Asian market.

Average strip ratio

c. 4.0x
Tanjung Enim currently has a very low strip ratio.
Current studies show that this ratio should be
maintained.

c. 7.0-9.0x
The average strip ratio is significantly higher at
Arutmin and KPC. The company recently announced
that development work at the Bengalon, Bendilli and
Pit J mines will increase KPCs strip ratio from
7.25x in FY04 to 8.75x in FY05.

Royalty Payment

4% of coal sales
PTBA has a Mining Authorization title to its
concessions, which carry a much smaller royalty
rate.

13.5% of coal sales


Both Arutmin and KPC are first-generation CCOWs,
and pay a 13.5% royalty rate.

Total cost of production

US$21/tonne

US$26-27/tonne

Mine-mouth cost of production

US$16/tonne

US$22-23/tonne

% of Mining Done by Contract Mining Co.

55% in FY04

65% in FY04

Reserves

350m tonnes transportable


1,500m tonnes mineable

1,059m tonnes transportable

Average k/Cal of reserves

5,950 Kcal/kg

5,950 Kcal/kg

Reserve life

35-150 years on FY04 production


18-75 years on FY08 production

28 years on FY04 production


16 years on FY98 production

Sensitivity to coal prices

5% change in coal prices = 9% change in EPS

5% change in coal prices = 13% change in EPS

Sensitivity to production output

5% change in output = 13% change in EPS

5% change in output = 5% change in EPS

Corporate tax rate

Source: Company, GKG estimates

16

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

Occasional rumours of placements in the market,


Long Haul Holdings Ltd is the largest individual
shareholder with 42.2% of the company.

VALUATIONS
PTBA and Bumi are currently the only two coal-mining companies listed on
the JSX. Bumi has received most of the attention over the past year, outperforming
the JCI by a substantial margin. However, PTBA has also performed well, and is
now of sufficient market capitalisation to interest most regional funds. PTBA had
an average daily turnover of US$0.9m in Oct 04.
Exhibit 14: Comparison of PTBA and BUMI
Company

Rec.

Shares
Price Mkt Cap Est. FF
Cash
Debt
Equity
(bn)
(Rp)
(Rp bn)
(Rp bn)
(Rp bn)
(Rp bn)
(x)
PTBA
Buy
2.3
1,225
2,612
813
914
1,653
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BUMI
Hold
19.4
750
14,553
8,320
463
4,654
1,484
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: GKG estimates, Companies

On a P/E and EV/EBITDA basis, we believe that PTBA is more attractively


valued than Bumi. Bumi has the potential to become significantly cheaper if it
achieves its production targets in FY05 and FY06. However, investors are already
paying a premium for this growth. Bumi has had problems meeting its FY04
targets, and recently announced higher production costs in 1Q05 due to the
upgrading of its production and shipping infrastructure. By comparison, PTBA
can provide 15%+ growth with significantly less operational and financial risk.
Our DCF computations for both companies are subject to change, with our
assumption of a US$40/tonne selling price being the biggest variable. However,
we believe that with PTBAs future involvement in domestic power projects,
continued growth is possible beyond FY08, at a time when Bumis coal production
may have peaked.
Exhibit 15: Comparison of P/E, EV/EBITDA, net gearing and DCF
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Net gearing (%)
DCF
.........................................................
...........................................................
FY04 FY05
FY04 FY05
FY04 FY05
(Rp)
PTBA
Buy
7.5
6.5
2.7
3.0
0%
0%
1,741
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BUMI
Hold
10.7
6.7
5.5
3.6
135%
15%
1,010
Company

Rec.

........................................................

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: GKG estimates

More compellingly, PTBA is substantially cheaper than Bumi on a EV/reserves


and EV/production basis. We have widened the comparison to include listed
Australian thermal coal producers, as Australia is Indonesias main rival in the
thermal coal export market. While Bumi is cheap relative to its Australian peers,
PTBA is significantly cheaper at US$0.50/tonne (assuming 350m of transportable
reserves). We believe PTBAs reserve estimate can increase as the company
conducts more exploration on its concession areas.
Exhibit 16: Comparison of EV/reserves and EV/production
Reserves
(m tonnes)
Mineable Transp

EV/Reserves
EV/Production
(US$)
(US$)
Mineable Transp FY04 FY05

........................................................................ ........................................................................... ..........................................

Company
Rec.
Indonesia
PTBA
Buy
1,500.0
350.0
0.1
0.5
17.7 17.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BUMI
Hold
1,059.0
1.8
51.7 41.6
Australia
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
Centennial (CEY AU)
Lighten
480.0
1.9
58.6 52.3
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Coal & Allied (CNA AU)
Buy
569.0
3.3
83.6 74.4
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Excel (EXL AU)
Spec.Buy
351.0
2.3
160.0 103.9
......................................................................................................................................................................................................

Source: Austock, GKG estimates

22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

17

APPENDIX: INDONESIAS POWER REQUIREMENTS


Indonesias electrical power capacity has stagnated in recent years. Many power
projects were commissioned in the years prior to the resignation of President
Suharto in FY97. As there were questions about the transparency of the tendering
system, the Indonesian government subsequently canceled 27 of these projects.
The fallout from this can still be felt, with the New York State Supreme Court
currently holding US$256m of the governments money relating to the canceled
Karaha Boda geothermal power project.
Exhibit 17: Indonesias existing power supply (1996-2002)
Capacity (MW)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
PLN
Operated
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
Coal
5,021
6,771
6,771
6,771
6,771
6,900
6,900
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Diesel oil
2,449
2,416
2,535
2,650
2,550
2,585
2,588
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
LNG
1,033
1,371
1,347
1,516
1,203
1,225
1,225
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Combined coal/gas 5,053
5,589
6,561
6,282
6,863
6,863
6,863
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Hydropower
2,184
2,436
3,007
3,014
3,015
3,016
2,942
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Geothermal
309
363
360
360
360
360
380
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sub-total
16,049
18,946
20,581
20,593
20,762
20,949
20,898
IPPs
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
Coal
1,200
2,400
2,400
2,400
2,400
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Diesel
oil
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
LNG
60
60
60
60
60
60
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Combined coal/gas
150
150
285
285
285
285
285
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Hydropower
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Geothermal
165
165
165
345
345
405
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sub-total
150
375
1,710
2,910
3,090
3,090
3,150
TOTAL
16,199
19,321
22,291
23,503
23,852
24,039
24,048
Source: Directorate General of Electricity

The increasing frequency of blackouts in nearly all parts of Indonesia indicate


that significant additions of generating capacity are urgently required. Current
capacity in the main Java-Bali grid is 18,610 MW, with an average peak load of
13,300 MW. PLN has acknowledged that as much as 3,500 MW of installed
capacity is regularly down due to the lack of maintenance. The Asian Development
Bank estimates that Indonesia needs an additional 2,000 MW of power per year
from 2006 onwards, with nearly all new capacity likely to come from coal or gas.
As PTBAs reserves are located in South Sumatra, the company is in an excellent
position to tap into PLNs existing infrastructure. PLN already has a mine-mouth
power station at Tanjung Enim, while two of PTBAs proposed projects are located
at this site. The new capacity can easily be connected to the main Java-Bali grid.
There is also an estimated 10,000 MW of power capacity currently in the
hands of private companies, which generate their own power. As a short-term
measure, PLN could tap into this supply during peak periods in order to meet
demand.

18

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update 22 November 2004

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22 November 2004 Company update Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

19

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CHINA / HONG KONG


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Robert Adair (Head of Research)


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