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GK
BUY
Maintained
Rp1,225
@19/11/04
INDONESIA
22 November 2004
G O H
Coal-powered growth
Mining
GENERAL INFORMATION
FORECASTS
FY end Dec 31
2003
Turnover (Rp bn) .......................................... 2,285
EBITDA (Rp bn) ............................................... 336
Pretax Profit (Rp bn) ....................................... 315
Net Profit (Rp bn) ........................................... 246
EPS (Rp) ......................................................... 107
Change (%) ................................................ +28%
Dividend/Share (Rp) ......................................... 58
Cash Flow/Share (Rp) ..................................... 137
Dil. P/E (x) ..................................................... 11.5
P/CFPS (x) ....................................................... 8.9
EV/EBITDA (x) ................................................. 6.0
Dividend Yield (%)) ..................................... 4.7%
Net Cash/(Debt) (Rp bn) ................................. 595
Net Gearing (%) .............................................. Nil
2004F
2,602
601
528
374
162
+52%
88
192
7.5
6.4
2.7
7.2%
997
Nil
2005F 2006F
2,933 3,212
628
702
615
700
432
491
188
213
+15% +14%
102
116
217
240
6.5
5.7
5.7
5.1
3.0
3.6
8.3%
9.2%
723
108
Nil
Nil
SHARE PRICE
1300
1.45
1.40
1200
1.35
1100
1.30
1.25
1000
1.20
900
1.15
800
1.10
1.05
700
1.00
600
0.95
500
N
D
J
F
M
A
TAMBANG BATUBARA BUKIT ASAM TBK
REL TO JCI(R.H.SCALE)
0.90
M
Source: DATASTREAM
12 Months
+108.7
+55.0
CONTENTS
3
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
6
7
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
Mine sites
Tanjung Enim
Ombilin
Coal reserves
Transportation
Long-term contracts
Potential acquisition
Mine-mouth power stations
Coal briquettes
12
FINANCIALS
12
14
15
Profit forecasts
Balance sheet
Capex
17
VALUATIONS
18
19
Backcover
Disclaimer
Analysts Coverage
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Solid prospects. PTBA is Indonesias fourth largest coal producer, with
substantial coal reserves that can drive volume increases for many years to
come. We project that small volume increases combined with increasing sales
to the open market will provide net income growth of around 15% p.a. in
FY05 and FY06. While volume increases are likely to be modest over FY0406, more substantial increases are likely once: 1) railway bottlenecks are
resolved; and 2) shipments can be made to new power station projects in
which PTBA is the minority partner.
Financially strong. As at Sep 04, PTBA had cash reserves of Rp914bn and
no debt. The company has minimal capex requirements, given that
infrastructure capacity at its main Tanjung Enim mine and port facilities are
well above existing production levels. Going forward, the company has plans
to acquire a domestic coal operator, and to participate in power station projects.
Our projections indicate that these can be achieved with minimal strain on the
balance sheet. The companys dividend payout ratio of above 50% will not be
threatened.
Substantial coal reserves. PTBA currently has 350m tonnes of
"transportable" coal, or coal with an average calorific content of 5,950 Kcal/
kg. This is the amount of coal that the company believes can be profitably
shipped and sold on the open market. However, PTBA also has 1.5bn tonnes
of mineable reserves, predominantly of lignite and low-grade coal, which has
been fully explored and qualified. Total coal reserves within its concession
areas are estimated at 7.3bn tonnes. Based on the 350m tonnes of reserve,
PTBA trades at an EV/reserve of US$0.50/tonne, substantially below the
US$1.80/tonne for Bumi Resources and the US$1.90-2.30/tonne range for
listed Australian thermal coal producers.
Power station projects will maximise reserve usage. PTBA plans to
participate in three mine-mouth power stations that will allow the company to
tap coal reserves of relatively low quality that may be unprofitable when
transportation costs are factored in. Pressure on the balance sheet will be
minimised since participation in the projects is through minority stakes. PTBAs
main role will be to provide fuel to the power stations. If all three projects take
off, they will eventually provide demand for 13.0m tpa of coal, with the first
incremental sales made in FY08. As two of the power stations are located
close to PTBAs reserves in South Sumatra, power can be easily supplied to
the main domestic power market in Java via the PLN grid.
Future acquisitions. PTBA is interested in acquiring a domestic coal
producer to boost production. Criteria for any acquisition include: 1) existing
production should provide a noticeable boost to PTBAs current production.
We take this to mean production above 2.0m tpa; 2) the average quality of the
reserves must be above 6,000 Kcal/kg, meaning of sufficient quality to be
sold on the open market; 3) production should not be committed under existing
contracts. PTBA would like to be free to sell the coal as it likes; 4) the acquisition
should immediately enhance its earnings growth; and 5) the acquisition should
ideally cost less than US$40m, in order to ensure a low level of gearing.
The main target group identified by PTBA is companies formed under the
first- and second-generation Coal Contract of Work (CCOW) agreements. A
total of 11 companies were formed under first-generation agreements over
FY81-91 while 18 were formed under second-generation agreements in FY94.
As PTBA was the Indonesian coal regulator until FY95, it has an in-depth
understanding of the terms and requirements of each contract. PTBA has
identified a number of target companies but - as there is no firm timetable our forecasts do not assume any acquisition.
Undemanding valuations. PTBA is inexpensive on 6.5x and 5.7x P/E,
and 3.0x and 3.6x EV/EBITDA for FY05 and FY06 respectively. It is also trading
at a 30% discount to our DCF value of Rp1,741. Its current EV/reserve valuation
of US$0.50/tonne based on reserves of 350m is significantly below BUMIs
US$1.80/tonne. Our price target is Rp1,900, which prices the stock at 10.0x
FY05 P/E, still at a sizeable discount to its projected growth rate of 15% p.a.
for FY05-06.
BACKGROUND
PTBA is Indonesias fourth largest coal producer. It was established by the
Indonesian government in Mar 81, and was subsequently merged with another
state-owned coal company in Oct 90 to become Indonesias only state-owned
coal producer.
In addition to its own coal mining operations, PTBA acted as the domestic
coal regulator on behalf of the Indonesian government until FY95. In this capacity,
it negotiated and awarded many of the first- and second-generation coal contracts
used to kick-start coal mining activity in Indonesia.
PTBA was listed on the JSX in Dec 02, with the government selling 347.4m
shares (16.3%) at Rp575 each. Some 173.25m warrants were also issued (one
for every two IPO shares), exercisable at Rp675 until 22 Dec 05. The government
completed a placement of 266.4m shares (12.5%) at Rp650 each in Jul 04.
The Indonesian government currently owns 71.2% of PTBA. This stake will
be diluted to 65.8% upon full conversion of the warrants. PTBAs warrants are the
most actively traded on the JSX.
Exhibit 1: PTBAs current share ownership
No. of shares
% of shares
- Preferred shares
1
- Ordinary shares
1,517,627,999
71.2%
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Public
Ordinary
shares
613,872,000
28.8%
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
2,131,500,000
100%
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Indonesian government
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Source: Company
THAILAND
Kedah
KUALA LUMPUR
MEDAN
Binjai
Tebingtinggi
Kelang
Kisaran
D. Toba
Tarutung
Sibolga
P. Nias
SINGAPORE
Dumai
Padangsidempuan
Duri
BA
PT ORT
P
EX
PEKANBARU
Bangkinang
Payakumbuh
Bukittinggi
P. Siberut
PADANG
Sawahlunto
Muaro
Rengat
PTBA
EXPOR
T
Pranap
PTBA
JAMBI
Muara Bungo
Mentok
P. Bangka
Banko
Pangkalpinang
PALEMBANG
Toboali
Lubuklinggau
BENGKULU
PTBA
Lahat
Muaraenim
Baturaja
Kotabumi
BANDAR LAMPUNG
Metro
JAKARTA
Bekasi
Indramayu
Purwakarta
Cirebon
Kuningan Tegal
Sukabumi BANDUNG
Tasikmalaya
SURALAYA
POWER PLANTS (3.400 MW)
Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tj. Jati
Jepara
Sumenep
Tuban
Demak
Gresik
Pekalongan SEMARANG
Ngawi
Purwokerto
Magelang
Madiun Jombang
Gombong
Surakarta
Pasuruan
Kediri
Malang Probolinggo
YOGYAKARTA
SURABAYA
Banyuwangi
Tanjung Enim
Tanjung Enim is PTBAs main mine site, covering an area of 72,230 ha. The
site contains 16 separate mining sites, with the main mining locations located at
Air Laya Pit, North Muara Tiga Besar Utara, South Muara Tiga Besar and West
Banko. The existing mining infrastructure at Tanjung Enim can handle production
of up to 16.0m tpa. As the companys forecast FY04 production is only 9.7m
tonnes, mining activity can increase sizeably before further investment in facilities
is required.
Production at Tanjung Enim is carried out by PTBAs own staff as well as two
contract-mining companies. PTBA itself uses a continuous rotating bucket system
developed in Germany. An electrically-powered rotary system drives a bucket
wheel excavator (BWE), which scoops up the coal and deposits it on a conveyor
belt that transports it to storage areas. This continuous bucket system can move
5.0m tpa of coal and is used at the Air Laya site in Tanjung Enim.
Exhibit 3: Forecast PTBA coal production for FY04-06
Production
FY04
FY05
FY06
PTBA
4.5
4.7
5.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Contract Mining
5.2
5.5
5.8
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Third Parties
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
9.9
10.4
11.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Source: Company
Ombilin
Ombilin is located in Sawahlunto, West Sumatra. PTBA operated an open pit
mine at Ombilin until FY02, when the site was closed after 20 years of production.
The only production at Ombilin now comes from an underground mine, which
produces 0.1m tpa of coal with an average calorific value of 6,900 Kcal/kg.
Although this coal has a current market value of US$45/tonne, the mine is
unprofitable as production costs are Rp0.7m/tonne (US$77/tonne).
PTBA is negotiating with a Chinese contract-mining company to raise
production at the underground mine to 0.8m tpa. At this level, the Chinese
company estimates that production costs would fall below US$30/tonne, turning
the mine profitable. PTBA is negotiating to buy the coal at fixed prices, leaving
the operational risk to the Chinese company. If development of the mine does
occur, it will take up to four years for production to increase significantly. We
have not factored any development into our forecasts.
Coal reserves
PTBA has total coal resources of 7.3bn tonnes, of which 1.5bn tonnes have
been certified by International Mining Consultants Ltd as being economically
viable for mining. However, PTBA believes that only 350m tonnes of the 1.5bn
tonnes are of sufficient quality (> 5,900 Kcal/kg) for sale on the open market. We
have, therefore, used this figure for our EV/reserve calculation, which provides a
reserve life of 35 years based on FY04 production levels.
PTBA believes that both the economically transportable and economically
mineable figures could be increased if the company made a concerted effort to
raise reserve levels. The company has recently been exploring deposits at its
Tanjung Enim site in conjunction with NEDO-Japan.
Exhibit 4: Classification of PTBAs coal into five major brands
Coal Brand
CV
TM
IM
Ash
(Kcal/kg, adb)
(%, ar)
(%, adb)
(%, adb)
BA58
5,800
28
15.0
8.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA59
5,850
28
14.5
8.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA63
6,300
21
11.5
6.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA67
6,650
18
9.0
6.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BA70
7,000
13
6.5
6.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Source: Company
PTBA divides its coal output into five brands. From the companys production
projection of 9.7m tonnes for FY04, we estimate that 7.3m tonnes are BA58 and
BA59 coal, and 2.4m tonnes are BA63, BA67 and BA70 coal. PTBA does not
provide a breakdown of reserves by brand, but states that its overall reserves
have a calorific content of 5,950 Kcal/kg. This is identical to the stated average
reserve quality of Bumis coal reserves from Arutmin and KPC.
PTBA also has sizeable coal reserves with a calorific content of below 5,800
Kcal/kg, including a substantial amount of lignite. These reserves may not be
commercially mineable once transportation costs are factored in. The company
believes that its planned involvement in mine-mouth power stations is ideal for
monetarising the reserves. The three mine-mouth power stations that it is interested
in will use low-grade coal, including lignite.
Transportation
Almost all of PTBAs coal is transported by two railroad lines operated by
Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI), the state-owned railway company. Capacity on the
420km Tarahan line is 7.1m tpa, while that on the shorter 120km Kertapati line is
1.5m tpa. Traffic at these two lines represents a bottleneck, given that existing
facilities at Tanjung Enim can handle 16.0m tpa, and there is a combined capacity
of 14.5m tpa at the two ports of Tarahan and Kertapati.
PTBA is in discussions with KAI and PLN to form a JV to renovate the railways
and expand capacity. Since KAI cannot fund this work, a JV is the best solution,
particularly as 95% of existing shipments are coal-related. PTBA submitted initial
plans to the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises in Jul 04, which have been
approved. The company has commissioned a detailed feasibility study that will
be re-submitted to the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises and the Ministry of
Transportation. PTBA is hopeful that this process can be completed by 1H05.
This feasibility study will be used to secure debt financing.
Exhibit 5: Work needed on the Tarahan and Kertapati railway lines
Stage
I. Upgrade Track
Timing
Already started
Description
Once the JV is finalised, work can be accelerated on
track replacement and lessening the curve on certain
sections of the track.
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
FY05-08
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
FY05-08
Source: Company
Long-term contracts
There have been concerns about the high percentage of PTBAs production
contracted to PLN, Indonesias state electricity company. In Jan 94, PTBA entered
into an agreement to provide coal to the Bukit Asam power station at Tanjung
Enim, which is 100%-owned and operated by PLN. PTBA currently provides all
the coal (1.2m tpa) required by the power station, at Rp204,000 per tonne. In Oct
02, PTBA entered into a 10-year agreement to provide coal to the Suralaya power
station in West Java, which is operated by PT Indonesia Power, a subsidiary of
PLN. The selling price was Rp234,000/tonne for up to 6.1m tpa of coal for FY03.
Selling prices for subsequent years are to be negotiated annually. A rate of
Rp244,200 was negotiated for FY04.
At the time of negotiation, these contracts made commercial sense. For
example, the open market price for coal of 5,900 Kcal/kg was US$19/tonne. It
was only with the strong uptrend of coal prices in the past two years that the
contracts have become less attractive.
Exhibit 6: Coal sales by long-term contracts and to the open market (m tpa)
FY04
FY05
FY06
PLTU Suralaya
5.8
5.6
5.3
PLTU
Bukit
Asam
1.2
1.2
1.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Open market
2.9
3.6
4.5
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
9.9
10.4
11.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Potential acquisition
PTBA is actively looking for domestic coal mining companies to acquire, and
currently has a bid for a coal mining company in Kalimantan that could be
completed by Dec 04. Our forecasts have not factored in this acquisition, but we
believe any acquisition would be immediately earnings-accretive. This is because
the company has stated that it is looking for a coal-mining operation with exportquality (above 6,000 Kcal/kg) coal and free production (i.e. production not locked
in by contracts). The company has enough cash to cover the acquisition and its
capex plans, as well as to maintain its dividend payout at 50%.
Prior to FY95, PTBA was not only a coal producer but was the regulator for all
the coal mines in Indonesia, negotiating many of the first- and second-generation
coal contracts of works. This means that the company has excellent knowledge
of not just the geology of different coal-mining areas, but of the particular features
of each contract. This should provide an advantage in any negotiation. PTBAs
relationship with the government is another advantage when it comes to resolving
contractual issues.
10
Description
The Banjarsari power station at Tanjung Enim will be a 2x100 MW plant. PTBA is part
of a consortium shortlisted as operator for the power station. PTBA will have a 41%
stake, with the other parties being PJB (a PLN subsidiary) and a company called
Navigate Indonesia Innovativ. Estimated cost of the project is US$200m, to be funded
by 70% debt and 30% equity. This would represent an initial investment of US$25m.
If accepted as the winning consortium, PTBA believes that it would have to make its
investment in 2H05, with construction in 2H05 and completion in 1H08. PTBA
estimates that this power station would need 1.0m tpa of coal, of an expected quality
of less than 5,800 Kcal.
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Tanjung Enim
In Sep 04, PTBA signed a Memorandum of Agreement with PLN and a Chinese
electricity company for a 4x600 MW power station at Tanjung Enim, to produce power
for the Java grid. The project will be competed in two stages. A detailed feasibility
study will not be completed until Dec 05, and any investment would be in FY06, at
the earliest. Total cost for the first stage is estimated at US$2bn (25% equity and
75% debt). PTBAs planned share of the equity is 20%, which means a total investment
of US$100m. We have assumed an initial equity investment of US$50m in 2H06. The
power station is expected to use lignite quality coal. If it commences in 1H06,
completion would be in 1H09, at the earliest.
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Cirenti
At Cirenti, Riau Province, PTBA has completed a feasibility study for a 2x250 MW
power station which would utilise reserves at its 183,820ha concession in Riau.
PTBA will take a minority stake in a JV with Indonesia Power and the Province of
Riau. Estimated cost of the project is US$500m. PTBA will provide the coal, but will
not be involved in day-to-day operations. PTBA estimates that this power station
would need 3.0m tpa of coal, of lignite quality. Our understanding is that the project
would be funded through 70% debt and 30% equity. This would represent an initial
investment of US$50m. We have assumed PTBA makes an initial investment of
US$25m in 2H05, and a further investment of US$25m in 1H06. Construction may
start in 1H06 and end in 1H09.
Source: Company
If all three projects are initiated, demand for coal from PTBAs concessions
will rise by 13.0m tpa, of primarily low-quality coal which may not otherwise be
utilised. The first incremental shipments could commence in FY08. PTBA believes
that it can earn a gross margin of at least 15% from coal sales made to these
mine-mouth power stations.
Coal briquettes
In FY93, the Ministry of Mines and Energy embarked on an initiative to develop
coal briquettes as an alternative energy source for SMEs and home industries. To
support the initiative, PTBA built three plants at Tanjung Enim, Lampung and
Gresik, with a combined capacity of 135,000 tonnes p.a. However, the use of coal
briguettes has been subdued, and PTBA sold only 21,000 tonnes in FY03. The
briquette operation has been losing roughly Rp20bn p.a. in recent years. PTBA
has recently diversified into wooden charcoal and coconut shell charcoal
briquettes, and believes the operation will break even in FY04.
11
FINANCIALS
Profit forecasts
Revenue growth will be modest in the next few years through small increases
in volume and a higher percentage of sales to the open market. Our forecasts
assume the company sells 9.9m tonnes of coal in FY04, increasing to 10.4m
tonnes in FY05 and 11.0m tonnes in FY06. The increases will be made possible
by the addition of rolling stock on the Kertapati line. Our forecasts do not include
any contribution from acquisitions. More substantial increases in volume should
become evident in FY07 and FY08 as the combined capacity of the Tarahan and
Kertapati lines climbs to 15.0m tpa.
PTBA currently buys 0.2m tpa of low-quality coal from a non-related coal
mining company in Kalimantan. It blends this coal with higher-grade coal from
its own mines to bring the average quality to 5,900 Kcal/kg, and sells it to the
Suralaya power station. This enables PTBA to maximise the amount of BA67 and
BA70 coal it sells to the open market.
Exhibit 8: Revenue assumptions for FY04-06
FY04
FY05
FY06
Own production
9.7
10.2
10.8
Brought
in
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total
9.9
10.4
11.0
Sold to:
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU Suralaya
5.8
5.6
5.3
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU
Bukit
Asam
1.2
1.2
1.2
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Open market
2.9
3.6
4.5
Selling
Price:
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU Suralaya
Rp244,200/tonne
Rp256,400/tonne
Rp269,200/tonne
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
PLTU
Bukit
Asam
Rp204,000/tonne
Rp208,000/tonne
Rp212,000/tonne
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Open market
US$40/tonne
US$40/tonne
US$40/tonne
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
For FY05 and FY06, we have used a US$40/tonne price for the thermal coal
that PTBA will sell on the open market. Our assumptions are in line with industry
expectations that thermal coal prices will remain high until supply can respond
to the surge in demand. One of the main arguments for higher prices over the
long term is continued economic growth in China, causing the country to go
from being an exporter to a net importer of thermal coal. The current level of oil
prices will also force energy users to shift away from oil usage, as demonstrated
in Indonesias domestic power generation industry.
We are forecasting total production costs of under US$22 per tonne for PTBA,
helped by an average strip ratio of 4.0x, a royalty payment of 4% and relatively
low selling costs. This is the combined cost of PTBAs own production and
payments to contract-mining companies. Transportation is a major cost at US$46/tonne. We are factoring in slightly higher electricity and fuel costs in FY05 and
FY06, but these only account for 7% of PTBAs COGS and 10% of COGS for the
contract-mining companies.
12
PTBAs maximum corporate tax rate is 30%, well below the 45% for Bumi on
its KPC operations. (Bumi will continue to pay 45% tax until it divests 51% of its
KPC operation to domestic companies.)
PTBA has been working hard to reduce inefficiencies and improve its
operational profitability. The company cut headcount from 4,510 in FY00 to 4,031
at Dec 03. In 9M04, it further cut the number to 3,584. This was done primarily
through an early redundancy programme, with PTBA taking a Rp51bn charge.
The company would like to cut headcount further, not through more redundancy
programmes but natural attrition. We have not assumed any further charges.
Exhibit 9: Profit forecasts (Rp bn)
FY end Dec 31
2003
2004F
2005F
2006F
Turnover
2,285
2,602
2,933
3,212
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
First half
1,022
1,119
1,475
1,606
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Second half
1,263
1,483
1,458
1,606
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
EBITDA
336
601
628
702
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Depreciation
(65)
(65)
(65)
(60)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Operating profit
271
536
563
642
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net interest & invt. income
45
36
43
46
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Associates
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Exceptionals & others
(0)
(43)
10
12
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Pretax profit
315
528
615
700
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Taxation
(68)
(152)
(181)
(206)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minority interests
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net profit
246
374
432
491
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
13
Balance sheet
PTBAs balance sheet is currently strong, with Rp914bn of cash and no debt
as at 30 Sep 04. Receivables averaged just over 40 days, with the bulk owed by
PLN and its subsidiary, Indonesia Power. This has been the average in recent
years, and PTBA has not had a bad-debt problem with either company.
As at Sep 04, PTBA had a provision reverse of Rp101bn relating to
environmental protection and reclamation at the Ombilin open pit mine. The
company believes that all costs associated with the closure of this open pit mine
will be settled in FY05, estimated at Rp50bn. This would allow the write-back of
Rp51bn. We have not factored this possibility into our forecasts.
The company will be investing in several sizeable projects over FY05-07,
through minority stakes in joint ventures. As such, we believe it can maintain a
net cash position through to Dec 06. This may change if PTBA acquires another
Indonesian coal company. We believe that any acquisition will be below US$50m
in size, and would not require the company to take on significant debt.
Exhibit 10: Balance sheet (Rp bn)
FY end Dec 31
2003
2004F
2005F
2006F
Receivables
525
376
385
427
Stocks
152
122
125
139
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Cash & near cash
595
997
723
108
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other current assets
24
21
21
21
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Current assets
1,296
1,517
1,255
694
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Payables
75
79
80
89
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Debt
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other current liabilities
274
296
307
310
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Current liabilities
349
374
387
399
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Net
current
assets/(liabilities)
947
1,143
868
295
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Fixed assets
528
508
523
543
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Investments & associates
480
1,280
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other LT assets
206
221
216
214
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Long-term debt
(0)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Other liabilities
(162)
(163)
(163)
(163)
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Total net asset value
1,519
1,708
1,924
2,169
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Capital
1,066
1,066
1,066
1,066
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Reserves
446
633
848
1,093
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minority
interest
8
10
10
10
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Shareholders funds & MI
1,519
1,708
1,924
2,169
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
14
Capex
With its existing facilities able to handle production of 16.0m tpa, PTBA believes
that routine capex will amount to only Rp60bn p.a. However, additional investment
costs will stem from its probable participation in three mine-mouth power station
projects, and in the joint venture to expand capacity on the two railway lines in
South Sumatra.
Exhibit 11: Probable PTBA investments during FY05-07
Project
FY05
FY06
FY07
Description
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
S. Sumatra Railway JV
15.8
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minemouth - Cirenti
25.0
25.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Minemouth - Banjarsari
12.5
12.5
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
50.0
50.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
53.3
87.5
50.0
15
Factor
PTBA
BUMI
% of Production exported
FY04F: 30%
FY08F: 65%
PTBA is currently selling 70% of its production to
PLN under long-term contracts. However, this
percentage should drop in future years with small
decreases in shipments to PLN, additional
production from existing mines, and the acquisition
of a domestic coal company with export-grade coal.
FY04F: 97%
FY08F: 97%
Bumi currently exports nearly all its coal, and we
expect this to continue in future years.
Ownership
71.2% Government
28.8% Public
We believe another placement of c.10% of PTBA
shares will be completed in FY05, with further
placements beyond that. The Indonesian
government owns one Golden Share.
52.4% Public
Location
Sumatra
Mine-mouth power stations located close to PTBAs
main Tanjung Enim mine in South Sumatra can
easily supply the main Java-Bali grid.
Kalimantan
KPC and Arutmin are well-positioned for export
markets, through their proximity to ports and their
position relative to the North Asian market.
c. 4.0x
Tanjung Enim currently has a very low strip ratio.
Current studies show that this ratio should be
maintained.
c. 7.0-9.0x
The average strip ratio is significantly higher at
Arutmin and KPC. The company recently announced
that development work at the Bengalon, Bendilli and
Pit J mines will increase KPCs strip ratio from
7.25x in FY04 to 8.75x in FY05.
Royalty Payment
4% of coal sales
PTBA has a Mining Authorization title to its
concessions, which carry a much smaller royalty
rate.
US$21/tonne
US$26-27/tonne
US$16/tonne
US$22-23/tonne
55% in FY04
65% in FY04
Reserves
5,950 Kcal/kg
5,950 Kcal/kg
Reserve life
16
VALUATIONS
PTBA and Bumi are currently the only two coal-mining companies listed on
the JSX. Bumi has received most of the attention over the past year, outperforming
the JCI by a substantial margin. However, PTBA has also performed well, and is
now of sufficient market capitalisation to interest most regional funds. PTBA had
an average daily turnover of US$0.9m in Oct 04.
Exhibit 14: Comparison of PTBA and BUMI
Company
Rec.
Shares
Price Mkt Cap Est. FF
Cash
Debt
Equity
(bn)
(Rp)
(Rp bn)
(Rp bn)
(Rp bn)
(Rp bn)
(x)
PTBA
Buy
2.3
1,225
2,612
813
914
1,653
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BUMI
Hold
19.4
750
14,553
8,320
463
4,654
1,484
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Rec.
........................................................
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
EV/Reserves
EV/Production
(US$)
(US$)
Mineable Transp FY04 FY05
Company
Rec.
Indonesia
PTBA
Buy
1,500.0
350.0
0.1
0.5
17.7 17.0
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BUMI
Hold
1,059.0
1.8
51.7 41.6
Australia
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
Centennial (CEY AU)
Lighten
480.0
1.9
58.6 52.3
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Coal & Allied (CNA AU)
Buy
569.0
3.3
83.6 74.4
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Excel (EXL AU)
Spec.Buy
351.0
2.3
160.0 103.9
......................................................................................................................................................................................................
17
18
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