A Study of Population Growth II

The Second Population Model

When a model is built to study the dynamics of a system a choice is made to include certain factors deemed relevant to the problem being studied. Additionally certain factors may be collected and represented as a single value, as was done with the birth fraction in the first population model, or a factor may be decoupled, as you will see in this population model. A factor is decoupled when the individual components that make up that factor are relevant to the question under study. Both models could be valid and useful, providing different insights into population change. In the first population model we built, the birth flow was defined as the product of a birth fraction and the total population. In this second population model we will decouple the birth fraction into its component parts to determine if there is a different dynamic produced by this decoupling process.

Part 0: Preparing the Old Model

1. Open the population model you just finished creating for the first assignment. Record the approximate total population value at the end of 50 years (from Part II of the previous model).

2. In order to remove the sensitivity analysis from the model select Run/Sensi Specs from the Run menu. Click on Birth Fraction in the Selected Window. Click on the << button to place it back in the Allowable Window, removing it from the Selected Window. Click OK. 3. To remove the sensitivity graph, double click on the "Graph 1" icon. Use the little white triangle in the lower left of the grid to change between graph pages. (There should currently be two graph pages.) Make sure you are viewing the sensitivity graph. Select the dynamite icon and click the flash of the dynamite in the little white triangle. This should remove that graph from the graph pad.

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Part I: A New Calculation for Births

You may wonder how the Birth Fraction 15/1000 (or 0.015) would be determined for a population. We will dissect it. First consider that only the females in the population may give birth. So clearly the population must be multiplied by 0.5 to take this information into account. Then, not all of the females are at reproducing age. So of the 50% of the population who are female, say only 45% are at the correct age to, potentially, give birth. Next, consider the average number of children born each year to females who are of reproducing age. For the United States about 66 babies are born for every 1000 women of reproducing age (15 - 44 years) each year.1 We will modify our first population model to incorporate these factors. 4. Remove the connection from Population to Births (carefully) by placing the flash of the dynamite tool in the circle at the tail of the connection. Click. 5. Add two new converters, the first one inch below and the second two inches below Population. Label the upper converter Females in Population. Label the lower converter Fraction that are Females. 6. Make a new connection from Population to Females in Population. Make another new connection from Fraction that are Females to Females in Population. 7. Add two more converters, the first one inch below and the second two inches below the Births flow. Label the upper converter Reproducing Females. Label the lower converter Fraction that are Reproducing. 8. Make a connection from Females in Population to Reproducing Females. Make a connection from Fraction that are Reproducing to Reproducing Females. Make a connection from Reproducing Females to Births. 9. Click on Birth Fraction and rename it Births per Reproducing Female per Year.

10. Double click on Births and make the equation: Births = Reproducing Females * Births per Reproducing Female per Year {people/year} Click OK. 11. Double-click on Females in Population and make the equation: Females in Population = Population * Fraction that are Females {people} Click OK.

The statistics used were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (www.cdc.gov/nchswww/) and from the US Census Bureau (www.census.gov) and are values for the United States in 1996. 2.3 A Study of Population Growth II Student Lessons Page 2-22 Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 2nd Edition 2007 Diana M. Fisher

12. Double-click on Reproducing Females and make the equation: Reproducing Females = Females in Population * Fraction that are Reproducing {people} Click OK. 13. Double click on Births per Reproducing Female per Year. Change the value from 15/1000 to 66/1000 {people/ people/year} or just {1/year} Click OK. Question: What does this value mean? What assumptions are being made?

14. Double click on Fraction that are Females. Type in 0.5 {no units}. 15. Double click on Fraction that are Reproducing. Type in 0.45 {no units}. 16. Now run the simulation. Compare the results to the final graph obtained for the first population model. What is the approximate value for the population at the end of 50 years for the current simulation run?

Note: The results should be fundamentally the same. Hopefully, the change in the calculation of new births made sense.

Part II: A New Calculation for Deaths

System scientists sometimes view the outflow from a stock using the concept of "dwelltime." We used an average lifespan of 76 years in the first population model. The 76 represented the dwell-time for the population, or the length of time, on average, a person flowing into the stock stayed in the stock before being removed. An alternate method of calculating a death fraction is often found in statistical almanacs. An almanac might record a death fraction as the number of deaths, say 8, per 1000 people per year. Both the 1/Lifespan calculation for calculating a death fraction and the Number

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of Deaths/1000 people concept for creating a death fraction make sense. Both techniques are valid depending upon the situation.2 17. For the second population model, the deaths/1000 people value will be used. Rename Lifespan as Death Fraction. Double click on Death Fraction and type in 8/1000 {people/people/year} or just {1/year}. Click OK. 18. Double click on Deaths and change the formula to Deaths = Population * Death Fraction {people/year} 19. Run the simulation. (approximately)? What is the population value at the end of 50 years

Why is it different from the answer to question 16?

Part III: Creating a Fluctuating Death Fraction (Extra Credit)

In your journal answer these questions (in complete sentences). Is the death fraction constant in the real world? In words, reflect on the influence the size of the population might have on the death Death Fraction fraction. For example, what might happen to the size high of the death fraction if the population (compared to resources Draw your available) were small? What might happen to the death fraction if normal graph in your journal. the population were really large (compared to the available resources)? After writing your description, sketch a graph (like low low high the one shown at the right), with Population on the horizontal axis Population and the words low to the left part of the axis and large on the right side of the axis. Then write Death Fraction on the vertical axis and write low on the bottom of the vertical axis, normal in the middle, and high on the upper part of the vertical axis. Then sketch a graph that matches the description you wrote earlier.
The system scientist is always searching for critical points in a system to help explain or determine potential policy leverage points. The purpose of the model will always dictate which data and assumptions are most valid for the problem at hand. 2.3 A Study of Population Growth II Student Lessons Page 2-24 Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 2nd Edition 2007 Diana M. Fisher
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Finally (back to our model diagram), we want to consider a situation where the Death Fraction is not constant during the entire simulation. Economic stresses resulting from explosive births in various countries activate factors that influence the death rate. Starvation and lack of resources for adequate shelter or medical attention can cause the number of deaths to increase over time. A special structure called a dimensionless multiplier will be introduced to help accomplish the task at hand. The multiplier is formally introduced in chapter 8, but will be incorporated here using step-by-step instructions to help you set it up correctly. 20. Rename Death Fraction as Normal Death Fraction. Carefully remove the connection from Normal Death Fraction to Deaths. Move the Normal Death Fraction converter to the right of its current location about one inch. Add a new converter one inch to the left of Normal Death Fraction. Label this new converter Actual Death Fraction. Connect Normal Death Fraction to Actual Death Fraction. Connect Actual Death Fraction to Deaths. 21. Create two converters, the first one inch below and the second two inches below the Deaths flow. Label the upper converter Effect of Population on Death Fraction. Label the lower converter Initial Population. 22. Make a new connection from Population to Effect of Population on Death Fraction. Make a connection from Initial Population to Effect of Population on Death Fraction. Make a third connection from Effect of Population on Death Fraction to Actual Death Fraction. 23. Double click on Deaths and make the equation: Deaths = Population * Actual Death Fraction {people/year} Click OK. 24. Double click on Actual Death Fraction and make the equation: Actual Death Fraction = Normal Death Fraction * Effect of Population on Death Fraction {1/year} Click OK. 25. Double click on Initial Population. Type in 1e5 {people} Click OK.
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26. Double click on the Effect of Population on Death Fraction converter. Click on Population in the Required Inputs window. Click on / (the division symbol). Click on Initial Population in the Required Inputs window. Units are {people/people}. Then, click once on the "Become Graphical Function" button. 27. Position the cursor inside the minimum box of the horizontal axis for Population/Initial Population. (The minimum box is the box at the left end of the horizontal axis.) Delete the current value set in this box. Set the lower range of the ratio to 0 by typing in this value. Press the Tab key (or press Return). Type 2 in the box at the right end of the horizontal axis. Hit the Tab key. (We are assuming that the largest value the current population will achieve is twice the initial population.) 28. Set the maximum vertical axis value for Effect of Population on Death Fraction to 10. Then press the Tab key. Set the minimum vertical axis value to 0. 29. In the box at the right of the window, position your cursor and click in the top slot within the Output Column (across from 0). Next, type a 0 (for the first Output value in the graph). Then hit the Tab or Return key. The cursor will automatically drop to the second slot in the Output column. Type in the second value (0.2). Continue to enter the numbers shown below in the Output Column:
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Click OK. 30. Recall that the equation for Actual Death Fraction is: Actual Death Fraction = Normal Death Fraction * Effect of Population on Death Fraction {1/year} Explain how the Effect of Population on Death Fraction causes a fluctuation to occur in the actual death fraction used by the model to calculate Deaths.

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31. Draw the diagram of your model using the sample screen below.

32. Double Click on the "Graph 1" icon. Double click on the graph to define it. Click on Births in the Allowable Window. Click on the >> button. Similarly move Deaths from the Allowable to the Selected Window. Then, manually change the range values for the Population, Births, and Deaths to the values shown below. To do this be sure to click on the appropriate variable (i.e., Population) in the Selected window. Click on the double headed arrow to the right of the variable name once (so that there are horizontal bars above and below the arrowheads). Then type in the MIN and MAX values for that variable. Be sure to click "Set" after you have scaled each variable. Click OK when you are done.
Population Births Deaths MIN 100000 0 0 MAX 140000 3000 3000

33. Select Save from the file menu to save all the work you've done so far. 34. Change the Simulation time to 150 years instead of 50 years by changing the "To" value in the Run/Run Specs... dialog box. Choose Run from the run menu. 35. Draw the graph generated using the sample Graph Pad on the following page. Identify each graph.

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1: Population 1: 2: 3: 140000 3000

2: Births

3: Deaths

1: 2: 3:

120000 1500

1: 2: 3: Page 1

100000 0 0.00 37.50 75.00 Years 112.50 150.00

Population with Fluctuating Death Fraction

36. Close the graph pad when finished. 37. Double click on your table icon. Add Births and Deaths to the table. Rerun the simulation.

Summary
In the boxes below each question or on a separate sheet of paper, write a short description of what happened to the population over time, when you executed the final simulation. Use your graphs, tables, and diagram to help you describe your system. Be sure to answer the questions below as part of your complete description. 38. What happened to the population over time (explain beginning, middle, and end)? Why did it level off? What does this leveling off mean?

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39. What does it mean that the births and deaths graphs coincide at years 110 to 150?

40. Notice that the population graph is below the births and deaths graph. Why is this not an important piece of information?

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