+

Gilberto M Jannuzzi

Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin America: the market, technologies and outlook

Report

Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin America: the market, technologies and outlook - 2010

Team:

Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi University of Campinas UNICAMP and International Energy Initiative IEI, Brazil Odn de Buen Rodrguez Energa, Tecnologa y Educacin, S.C. ENTE, S.C., Mexico Joo Gorenstein Dedecca International Energy Initiative IEI, Brazil Larissa Gonalves Nogueira International Energy Initiative IEI, Brazil Rodolfo Dourado Maia Gomes International Energy Initiative IEI, Brazil Judith Navarro Energa, Tecnologa y Educacin, S.C. ENTE, S.C., Mexico

Objective and Characteristics of the study

Objective: provide a picture of the current status and near future development of renewable energy technologies in LA countries

Markets up to 2020 (official projections), regulations, stakeholders Countries: Argentina, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and Mexico Sources/technologies: SHP (<20 MW), wind, biomass, solar PV, geothermal

Information:

Survey the existing public available literature, official documents and reports Personal contacts

Structure of presentation

Current picture Trends & Drivers Policies & Regulation Stakeholders Most promissing technologies/countries Conclusions

Current situation: Renewable Electricity (RE)

RE: good potential in LA

But today represents 2-5% of the existing capacity
Table3:Estimatedpotentialofalternativesourcesforelectricitygeneration
Solar PV (kWh/m2.year) Wind energy (MW) 5000 >250000 6000-10,000 2500 21000 45195 40000 400 600 W/m2(4) SHP (MW) 425-480 25913 2600 1000 25000 15000 32503 180003 Geothermal (MW) 150-2000 360-3000 3500-7000 1000-2990 552 910 6500-8000 24400-31500 Biomass (MW) 430 265401 1000 1782 47 340 800 635

Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Colombia Venezuela Mexico Central America

1800 1095-2372.5 663.5-2555 1900-2500; 1800 1800 1606-2445.5 1640-2370 1725-2175

Renewable electricity: installed capacity (2009)

Note: Large Hydro plants not included!

RE installed capacity: contribution by country

2% 9% 2% 4% 0% 5% 7%

CentralAmerica Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

71%

Venezuela

10

Summary: RE in Latin America

The energy sources considered represent 2,5% to 5% of total installed capacity in the examined countries. Biomass represents 50% of the total energy generated by RE. All researched countries have plans to expand production of electricity from alternative sources considered. Brazil and Peru have about 5% of its capacity attended by RE, Argentina and Colombia have about 4%, Mexico and Chile are 2.5%.

Drivers for expansion: RE in Latin America

11

12

Driving forces for RE expansion in LA

13

Local Policies drivers

The analysis shows that in most countries the issues below have been important factors to support the policies of RE :

Policies, Stakeholders, Funding

14

15

Policies, trends, stakeholders, finance

Main countries : Brazil, Mexico ,Chile and Argentina Other countries : Peru, Colombia (Andean Region) Main Technologies : Wind and Biomass
Policies Several legal iniciatives Lack of financial incentives Specific mechanisms technological regulation Trends Biomass Wind Small Hydro Plants Stakeholders Research Centers Government Regulators Manufactures Project Developers Finance BID BNDES GTZ Government

+ Policies & regulatoin

16

17

Policies and regulation: current scenario

All countries have some sort of policy to promote RE Brazil has a development of laws, regulations and incentives that favored, over time, specific technologies such as biomass, and more recently wind and solar PV. Chile has shown interest in putting incentives and rules for the sources in a more general way and this has been the trend of the other analyzed countries.

18

Market/technology trends

Wind energy is the most promising technology by 2020, considering the plans of energy. Wind and biomass are the most important technologies for the next 5-10 years. It is expected significant expansion of wind energy in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, and biomass in Brazil, Argentina, Central America, Colombia and Peru.

19

Stakeholder analysis: current situation

Project Developers, Manufacturers, Environmental Ministries / Agencies Trade Associations, Chambers of Commerce and Industry, International Banks, Multilateral Organizations and national agencies Note: project developers are essential in consolidating the market for these technologies, but in general there are sufficient critical mass.

20

Stakeholder analysis: matrix

+
Multicriteria analysis
Which are the best country+technology ?

21

22

Criteria selection and analysis

There are three axes of evaluation or criteria used for this analysis: market, regulation and actors. Projected installed capacity (High and Low) a quantitative criterion. Regulation and stakeholders: qualitative and represent, respectively, the degree of development and the importance of the legal framework and existing players.

+ Energy projection data

Table71:Additionalinstalledcapacitypersourceandcountry(MW)
Mexico (2020)7 1724 465 100 126 0 0 0 Central America (2015)8 115 0 110 25.5 0 0 0

Brazil (2020)1 6000 - 7800 6966 8521 0 0 0 195

Argentine (2020)2 200 8000 1004 300 - 1000 100 200 250 - 500 0 300

Chile (2020)3 1000 6122 616 - 676 380 1742 0 488 4 0 0 - 970

Peru (2020)4 0 - 403 0 509 101 125 400 80 0 0

Colombia (2020)5 9 100 512 601 180 55 0 0 0

Venezuela (2013)6 172 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wind energy SHP( <20 MW) Biomass Geothermal energy Solar photovoltaic Ocean energy (waves and tides) CSP

24

Results
Low market projections

High market projections

Brazil-wind Brazil-biomass Brazil-SHP Argentina-wind Mexico-wind Chile-SHP

Brazil-wind Argentina-wind Brazil-biomass Brazil-SHP Chile-wind Mexico-wind and ArgentinaPV

These pairs represent the most promising markets for the future, considering the information gathered using the official projections of electricity (by 2020, and considering the lowest and highest projection of demand for copper), the existing regulations and local stakeholders

+
Conclusions
OPORTUNITIES

25

26

Conclusions

Speed: the expansion of RE in the countries analyzed is moving fast. Technology: The greatest opportunities are in wind and biomass Countries:

Large potential w/zero growth: Venezuela, Colombia, Central America Large potential, fast growth: Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico

Policies: there are several legal and regulatory initiatives, but not enough financial incentives and other market mechanisms Regulation: while Brazil has opted to create specific regulation for different RE technologies, Chile has introduced broader RE regulation. It is still early to recommend best model for stimulating RE markets. Stakeholders: Project developers are key to consolidate the market for these technologies and there is not enough critical mass of them. Impacts: Still to see.

+
The End
gilberto@iei-la.org jannuzzi@fem.unicamp.br

27

+ MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

Regulatory mechanisms Economic incentives Market creation

Local partners/Government Manufacturers Class Associations Installation & Maintenance Environment Agencies NGOs Research Consulting & Engineering Funders

+ MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

Weights for different scenarios Scenario 1: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 1 Scenario 2: copper = 2; regulation = 1; actors = 1 Scenario 3: copper = 1; regulation = 2; actors = 1 Scenario 4: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 2

+ MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

Ranking of evaluated countries-technologies pairs scenario 1: lower limit amount of additional copper