KYRGYZSTAN STRATEGY 2009

Coping with Complex Challenges

Draft version: 2 June 2009

NB: This is a draft. The terms and outline in this paper have not been agreed upon. The title of Kyrgyzstan Strategy is a working title. Not for citation.
A human crisis is looming in the Europe and Central Asia Region, said Shigeo Katsu, World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia Region . Within 10 months of the crisis, countries have started to lose the poverty gains made over the last 10 years. By end-2010, we may unfortunately see 35 million more people fall back into the poverty and vulnerability trap. This is a human crisis that is going largely unnoticed in the talk of the global financial and economic crisis. 1

SECTION I: OVERVIEW Background

Kyrgyzstan has entered a difficult phase due to the convergence of several external crises. The onset of the global economic crisis has come at a time when the country is struggling with energy deficits, three years of drought and the effects of high food prices. This has aggravated underlying development challenges that have long faced the country and a compound crisis is emerging where basic needs are increasingly not being met. Despite the countrys first ever humanitarian appeal in 2008, the country is losing ground in its efforts to meet the key social objectives set out in the Countrys Development Strategy and also those defined for the country under the Millenium Developmental Goals. 2 The challenge facing Kyrgyzstan is different from a large-scale natural disaster or the situation following an armed conflict, where needs are clearly visible and can be defined in traditional terminology. Nevertheless, credible assessments document a deterioration in basic human welfare and a serious fall in household coping capacities.3 The 2008 humanitarian flash appeal succeeded in alleviating some of the most critical humanitarian gaps. The effects of the crises have demonstrated that continued and additional humanitarian support is still necessary, but there is a real risk of succumbing to cyclical crises and recurrent appeals. The most appropriate response in this context does not fit either the model
1

Published on 24 April 2009, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/0,,contentMDK:22155627%7EmenuPK:258604%7Ep agePK:2865106%7EpiPK:2865128%7EtheSitePK:258599,00.html (accessed 26 May 2009). 2 Paper finding from Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Khan, Yasir (2009), Maternal and Newborn Health in Kyrgyzstan & Chui Oblast: Assessment and Implication for Interventions, (Report funded by UNICEF at the request of the Ministry of Health). 3 Several reports illustrate the emerging challenges that are developing in Kyrgyzstan: Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Khan, Yasir (2009), Maternal and Newborn Health in Kyrgyzstan & Chui Oblast: Assessment and Implication for Interventions, (Report funded by UNICEF at the request of the Ministry of Health); Eurasia Foundation (2009), Assessment of the social and Economic Situation of Kyrgyz Labor Migrants Returning to their Home Land (with a grant from USAID); International Monetary Fund (2009), Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; HelpAge International (2008) Feasibility Assessment of Alternative Energy Usage by Older Persons Groups in Central Asia; World Food Programme (2009), Update on the Food Security & Nutrition Situation in the Kyrgyz Republic: Reanalysis of the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey 1 st, 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008 National Statistical Committee.

of the humanitarian appeal or development business as usual, but requires an innovative, integrated approach that includes both an on-going humanitarian response and targeted development programmes that are rapdily implemented. Together, these two elements will sustainably address the needs of the most vulnerable over the next 18 months. The analytical tools and funding mechanisms (to support solutions that are both humanitarian and developmental), however, are separate and there are obstacles to integration of the two approaches. Yet, there is growing recognition within the UNCT in Kyrgyzstan that a hybrid method is essential to address the complexity of the challenges that have emerged and are continuing to emerge. For example, one household in five is at high nutritional and health risk: caloric intake for these families has been decreasing since 2006, particularly due to reduced consumption of crucial fats and oils. The provision of basic services (e.g., education, healthcare and potable water and sanitation) has long been poor due to a number of structural factors that should be addressed in a sustainable manner and in order to have effect on negative trends, for example, in nutrition. The imposition of widespread rolling electricity blackouts last year has pushed the provision of these services into a critical situation. The provision of basic services has gradually passed from a level of marginal quality to non-existent or unacceptable, even while the statistical documentation of impact on human wellbeing is lagging behind. Another area that demands a hybrid approach is the agriculture sector: it accounts for 40 percent of GDP and 60 percent of employment but is experiencing serious challenges. Agricultural workers are among the poorest people within the population. Recent price drops have further affected this sector. For example, prices for sheep in Talas and Chui provinces fell from 4,500 som ($110) in November to 2,500 ($61) in January. Assessments show that productivity can be increased significantly in fairly short order with the injection of improved seed, equipment and credit. But, longer-term gains and sustainability require on-going technical assistance and more effective water management schemes. A programme to achieve the short-term gains must link effectively to longer term objectives in capacity building of farmers and improved water management, from the outset, to be sustainable. Another good example is a decentralized energy supply. The provision of critical electricity energy in isolated communities protects the provision of basic services (schools were closed for 1-2 months throughout the country and medical facilities were subjected to power cuts for up to 12 hours a day), can be implemented quickly and would complement longer-term national plans to strengthen the overall grid capacity through larger centralized energy production plants. The traditional approach of supplying diesel powered small generators is not sustainable: these rural communities find it difficult to afford fuel, even to obtain fuel at any cost. Furthermore, maintenance costs are significantly higher than renewable options. Thus, building more sustainable, small scale energy systems that utilize the countrys hydro, wind and solar resources, makes sustainable, economic sense. These projects can be implemented in a relatively short time-frame to support suffering communities and are complementary to larger scale national plans for development of energy supply. The exogenous shocks affecting the Kyrgyz Republic were not, for the most part, anticipated, here or elsewhere, so it is not surprising that current development strategies do not have adequate protective measures to account for these aspects of the challenge. The true impact of the

exogenous shocks is multiplied disproportionally by the long-standing development problems facing the country. It is clear that in this context, serious challenges emerge for the country and for donor partners. Defining the right balance of response is often hampered by inadequate information and a lack of forward planning. We now see some factual basis to back up initial impressions that the combination of shocks is draining household coping capacities. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that there will be a real lag in statistics that document the true impact of a slow onset crisis such as this.

Construct of a crisis
The UNCT in the Kyrgyz Republic classifies the current situation as an emerging compound crisis. By this, we mean: A combination of destabilizing events (e.g. exogenous shocks), infrastructure inadequacies and limited and/or constrained capacities, which are interlinked in their impact, and where visible signs are subtle, slow to emerge and difficult to quantify with traditional tools. The overall impact of the combination of circumstances exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. In particular, the compound crisis is characterized by the following: 1. Multiple hazard events, for instance: unusually cold weather, severe food insecurity, dramatic increases in prices, political instability4, disease outbreaks; 2. A failure of basic services, for instance: a collapse of electrical and natural gas supplies, a significant reduction in health, water and education services; 3. Economic contraction, for instance: a reduction of economic activity, and loss of income; 4. A lack of investment in the social and physical capital needed to address the causes of the disaster to a point where conditions which can be anticipated lead to a disaster, for instance: electrical and water systems in poor condition; 5. A high level of social acceptance of conditions which would be considered sub-standard in other locations, for instance: only receiving four hours of electricity per day when outside temperatures are below freezing and electricity is a major source of heating. This is illustrative of the situation in Kyrgyzstan. For example, extreme weather has triggered problems in the energy and health sectors, through energy curtailments and the forced closure of hospitals and schools affecting several more sectors in the country that have gradually worsened, but not at a pace to signal an emergency. The complexity of the situation and its largely hidden effect makes a compound disaster deceptive, and it is difficult to predict the evolving scenarios. Thus, addressing it in a comprehensive and coherent manner is difficult. First, the linkages between the various sectors are not immediately visible. There are no clearly defined thresholds which dictate when certain crisis scenarios will emerge. Second, as initial shocks are largely overcome, families continue with fewer resources. It is often assumed that extreme situations are of limited duration and that recovery begins immediately after the situation has improved. But while the event may be short, the effects often last for much longer. This breeds a sense of patient complacency times may be difficult, but it could be worse. But the longer the country grapples with a compound crisis the
4

This refers to relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which were seen as having an impact on the import of electricity and natural gas from the first to the second country. For more, see C. Kelly Compound Disaster A New Variant Disaster?, delivered at the AON Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London (2008).

more desperate the situation becomes. The initial emphasis on sustainable solutions begins to slip and the humanitarian fire-fighting mentality takes over. Such situations make it difficult to mobilize appropriate funding for the situation. A compound crisis may not trigger immediate humanitarian aid, as humanitarian indicators do not show a sharp decrease, but neither does development assistance keep pace with the on-going shocks and increasing setbacks. Development projects may continue under the belief that temporary setbacks will eventually be regained. When the situation does reach a critical point where greater intervention is recognized as necessary, neither strict humanitarian nor development funding mechanisms are suitable. A further dichotomy between emergency and developmental exists. The UN system and local organizations may not have the capacity to implement a humanitarian-style intervention. Likewise, arriving humanitarian actors may be unwilling to consider long-term sustainability in the interests of addressing the crisis. Currently in Kyrgyzstan, the expertise of most international organizations is focused on development. This is an obstacle to implementing a nuanced, hybrid approach.

Response mechanisms
The UNCT believes that this slow onset compound crisis characterizes Kyrgyzstans current situation and that this will characterize an increasing number of countries, demanding the development of tools and methodologies for an integrated approach. There are situations, such as climate change, which alone can evoke a number of potential scenarios requiring a balanced humanitarian and developmental response. Other scenarios, however, emerging from of the potential impact of the global financial crisis on poverty trends in countries struggling to meet the MDGs, or even in conflict situations such as Afghanistan where sustainability of interventions and capacity development of beneficiaries is crucial, but often mistakenly a distant priority compared to others. But once indicators reach a certain point and are characterized as a humanitarian issue, there can be an invisible development cost to the resulting actions. The standard approach for funding programmes is either through a humanitarian or development envelope (vertical implementation with little horizontal connectivity). Once the response is humanitarian, it becomes by definition a short term response, it requires significant energy, expertise and funding, and often diverts attention from the more sustainable interventions that would address the underlying causal elements of the problems. In many ways, the humanitarian response is more straightforward than the developmental actions but alone, it often fails to capture the complexity of the crisis and therefore to meet both the humanitarian and the developmental goals. In the United Nations, analytical tools and funding mechanisms for humanitarian response and development are completely different. This separation dates back to the founding of the United Nations and the legislative and funding frameworks of major donors. The separation was, and even is, appropriate for the traditional two categories of disaster such as a massive natural disaster (e.g. tsunami) or manmade conflict (e.g. Gaza). There has been growing recognition that even these traditional humanitarian crises require bridging measures to facilitate the transition to

regular development programming, hence the early recovery and transition appeals. However, after much intellectual consideration and analysis, the Kyrgyzstan UNCT has concluded that neither of these tools fits the particular circumstances of the country.

A path forward
Therefore, the Kyrgyzstan UNCT, with full endorsement of the Prime Minister and the Minister for Economic Development and trade, is preparing an interim strategy, framed over the next 18 months, after which the Government would launch its next Development Strategy and the UN system would launch its next UNDAF. This interim mid-term approach proposes a two-pronged, but coherent, set of projects targeted on the most vulnerable groups in the country. This proposal, further defined herein, can be implemented rapidly against proven approaches, while clearly based on principles of sustainability, and will significantly reduce the severity of the impact of the emerging challenges, while establishing the basis for sustainable development in the period of the countrys next Development Strategy and the corresponding UNDAF. Funding will be a challenge as donors are generally guided strictly by law on funding: allocations to humanitarian needs must respond to a humanitarian crisis but can be approved quickly while development budgets are generally predetermined over a longer term time period, with fixed amounts for predetermined development objectives, and are difficult to adjust according to rapidly evolving circumstances. The solution is to show that the UN system itself can break through these obstacles, by obtaining some initial and balanced funding from both the UN Central Emergency Revolving Fund (CERF) for the humanitarian elements and from the UN Delivering As One Extended Funding Window (DAO) for the development solutions, without losing the overall integrity and coherence of the 18 month strategy to assist the country towards the design and implementation of its next Development Assistance Framework. With a minimum funding platform to enable action, the UNCT is confident that it can attract additional funding from donors for specific elements of the proposal contained herein. We believe this can constitute a best practice for other countries that either currently, or in the near future, will face similar circumstances.

Recommendations
While policy-makers focus on how to meet the short-term challenges of food and energy prices, it is important that they do not lose sight of the medium-term and longer-term measures that drive stronger economic growth such as productivity. Paloma Anos Casero, Senior Economist5

The UNCT in Kyrgyzstan believes that the appropriate solution to the compound crisis will involve both humanitarian and developmental expertise and approaches. By integrating both into a single package, the response will generate real synergies, be more successful at meeting humanitarian needs and rapidly and sustainably address developmental challenges. One side would address critical humanitarian needs, focusing particularly on vulnerable groups (e.g.
5

Published 9 April 2009, http://www.worldbank.org.am/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/ARMENIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21724246~m enuPK:50003484~pagePK:2865066~piPK:2865079~theSitePK:301579,00.html (accessed 26 May 2009).

poorest families, pregnant and lactating women, and children) and to protect the assets of the poor (e.g. reducing their consumption of seed stock and livestock). The other component would address structural aspects, but are defined to have an immediate effect on peoples well-being and would be the basis for a medium-term intervention. This hybrid approach does not require an entire shift in the approach of international organizations, but does necessitate an integrated and multi-faced approach. On-going programming is the basis for expanded activities and an invitation for greater partnership. In some cases addition human resources will be required, but should complement an organizations activities and mandate, rather than establishing a new role. Thus, the recommendation for the following course of action: 1. Develop the Strategy over the next four months in close collaboration with the UN system and the government; 2. Launch the Strategy with activities to be implemented (tentatively) in six areas: decentralized energy, agriculture productivity, household food security, environment and water resource management, essential service provision and risk management and mitigation; 3. Projects should last up to 18 months in each thematic area to have a short- to mediumterm impact, bridging the gap until existing developmental programmes are realigned; 4. Where necessary, increase programming and human resources to cope with the additional workload for the duration of the appeal.

Emergence of the Compound Crisis and it s effects

Several crises occurred during 2007-2008, which created the specific conditions for the compound crisis. The country struggled to cope with extreme weather draining energy resources. This has caused emergency energy curtailments to be imposed throughout the country. There have been problems in the food security and economic sectors. As the most critical periods have passed, there was little attention to the continuing effects within these sectors and how they impacted household coping strategies. There are growing signs that the problems that arose during this period have not been resolved and are slowly getting worse. Ahead of another winter, the remaining problems threaten to drain what remaining resources there are left. This section provides a general overview of the background and some of the current trends in various areas that have been the most affected from the wave of crises that hit the country. Energy The cold weather of the 2007-2008 winter exposed the fragility of the countrys energy infrastructure. To meet the countrys demands during this period, an average of 29 percent more water released for the entire non-vegetation period than planned. 6 In order to replenish the series of reservoirs that forms the Naryn Cascade of hydroelectric plants providing 93 percent of domestic energy electricity generation and exports were dramatically reduced by 20 percent and 75 percent respectively. Energy curtailments were introduced as an emergency measure. Some areas were cut off for 5-10 hours a day, but some areas experiencing up to 16 hours
6

In some cases, there were releases of up to 48 percent more than planned. Information according to CA Water Info (accessed 28 May 2009).

without electricity. Despite this measure, water levels did not improve for the following winter season. On 27 April 2009, the level of Toktogul Reservoir, the countrys largest energyproducing reservoir, had fallen to its lowest point ever (6.3 billion cubic metres) and Government sources have indicated that they plan to renew curtailments later in October 2009. In addition, Kyrgyzstan will export electricity to Kazakhstan to repay the $25 million their northern neighbour provided in energy assistance. This is in addition to planned releases for downstream countries in the vegetation period. The emergency measure of energy curtailments created a series of new problems. Primary healthcare services stalled leaving some communities without proper refrigeration for vaccines and other medicines, access to basic diagnostic equipment. In addition, the curtailments negatively affected communications/media equipment, caused water pump failures and forced a prolongation of the winter secondary-school holiday in electrically heated schools as all are dependent upon reliable electricity. Small and medium businesses, in particular, were badly affected. Many were forced to reduce operations or close down. In real terms, this has not only had a severe impact on peoples standard of living, but has also reduced government coffers. Despite the Prime Ministers claim that the rolling blackouts had no real affect on the economy7, a report by the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economic Development and Trade together with USAID Economic Reforms to Enhance Competitiveness (EREC) Project stated otherwise. The report claimed that for each month (since September 2008) the electricity rationing throughout the country, would result in a 0.6 percent loss of the state budgets annual income.8 Official statistics show a 17 percent decline in electric power generation in 2008 and a 30 percent decline during January-April 2009 (relative to the same period of 2008). This has resulted in non-Kumtor industrial production falling 2 percent in 2008 and 22 percent during January-April 2009. The effects of this are only just being felt, but indicate that there are increasing budget constraints. In addition, inefficiency in the energy sector, linked to energy low prices and under-investment, threatens the viability and sustainability of providing electricity throughout the country. Commercial and technical losses are high (around 40 percent) and current electricity rates are only half of what the cost recovery rate should be. 9 It is estimated that there is low energy efficiency in the country. A report suggests that in the industrial sector up to 45 percent is not used efficiently. In other sectors, there are equally high losses: transport (83 percent), housing and commercial services (55 percent) and agriculture (40-50 percent). Further, heating methods used in private homes are only 25-30 percent efficient.10 Supplying power to distant rural settlements presents special challenges where many of its rural communities are not connected to the transmission grid or the connections have fallen into
7 8

AKIpress, 26 September 2008, http://kg.akipress.org/news/61910 (last accessed 3 October 2008). If the rationing measures continue until March 2009, this could result in a 4.2 percent loss of annual state tax income. This would mean a loss of 685 million som ($18.9 million). AKIpress, 2 October 2008, http://business.akipress.org/news/8149 (last accessed 2 October 2008). See also, USAID, Quick Methodology for Determining Revenue Losses as a Result of the Electricity Consumption Limitation, Economic Reforms to Enhance Competitiveness Project, September 2008. 9 Omorov, Janybek, Recent Experiences in the Kyrgyz Republic: Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy. Presentation made at the Workshop on Climate Change and Energy / Asian Development Bank, 26-27 March 2009, Bangkok, Thailand. 10 Omorov, Janybek, Recent Experiences in the Kyrgyz Republic: Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy. Presentation made at the Workshop on Climate Change and Energy / Asian Development Bank, 26-27 March 2009, Bangkok, Thailand.

disrepair. Lack of electricity is forcing people to cut down trees for fuel. This is having further environmental and livelihood repercussions. In urban areas, there is no real alternative to electricity. This is severely impacting coping methods, as well as increasing potential health risks. For example, in Bishkek, health authorities reported a significant rise in the number of persons treated for carbon monoxide poisoning during the New Year period, compared to the same period the previous year (71 incidents compared to 29, respectively). This indicates that urban populations are using alternative fuels for heating purposes, often with little knowledge of proper use and ventilation.11 If these energy shortages persist, serious consequences could ensue, not just for social welfare and economic growth, but also for the countrys fragile political stability. Agriculture Agricultural production remained fairly stable, but it is still not enough to meet the countrys needs. While harvest rates met government expectations, high food prices meant that people could not afford basic food items. Growing problems in this sector are critical as agriculture is the single most important contributor to the economy in Kyrgyzstan (accounting for 40 percent of the GDP and 11 percent of all exports). The country has about 1.4 million hectares of arable land roughly 7 percent of the countrys total area and over 70 percent of that depends on irrigation. Many rural residents, however, do not know how to use land in a sustainable and effective way. Small land-holding farmers also lack knowledge of production for and access to national and international markets. There are few extension services which address some of these basic needs. People in rural areas remain poor and young people continue to migrate to urban areas searching for better opportunities. The September-October 2008 wheat harvest exceeded targets, but was still lower than the average of the previous five years.12 A total of 385,000 hectares was harvested. The yields for rain-fed wheat were poor (0.3-0.9 ton/hectare) compared to the irrigated land (2.5-6.0 ton/hectare).13 In parts of Chui province, some suggest that even on irrigated fields the wheat crop was poor due to the high temperatures and lack of water. 14 In general, the region experienced a poor winter wheat harvest due to spring frosts and a lack of precipitation. 15 In addition, soil degradation, salinization, water logging, water and irrigation erosion have caused the decrease of cereal and, in particular, wheat production. In past five years, wheat yields have shrunk by 21.2 percent. The October 2008 Emergency Food Security Assessment conducted by the World Food Programme revealed that one household in five is at high nutritional and health risk because of poor food consumption. Some 800,000 people are vulnerable to the effects of water, energy and food insecurity. In addition, in 2008 it is estimated that there was $65 million in damage to the

11 12

Winter Energy Crisis OCHA Situation Report, 12 Jan 2009. See FAO GIEWS, 17 September 2008, http://www.fao.org/giews/english/shortnews/Kyrgyzstan080917.htm (last accessed 9 October 2008). 13 Regional Market Survey for the Central Asia Region World Food Programme, Draft, September 2008. 14 Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment interview, Bishkek, 9 October 2008. 15 MARS FOODSEC, European Commission Joint Research Centrer, Crop Monitoring in Central Asia, Vol 3, 10 August 2008.

agriculture sector from locust invasion. This has further weakened agriculture sector and increased problems for household coping strategies. Animal health is also reported to be poor in many areas, with outbreaks of brucellosis, widely reported in throughout the country. Lack of animal health services is a chronic problem. Below the provincial level, there is a lack of adequate vaccination and drugs to treat animals. A shortage of animal fodder and high market prices for feed are increasing stress on herding families. While prices for fodder are reported to have been slightly lower in December, overall prices have been high. There are persistent reports from around the country of distress selling of livestock, amid fears that poorer farmers have been unable to buy enough fodder for the winter, due to inflated prices. Animal prices have dropped sharply from their September/October seasonal highs, further than in previous years. For example, prices for sheep in Talas and Chui provinces fell from 4,500 som ($110) in November to 2,500 ($61) in January. The lack of fodder has reduced animal health, while livestock holders are unable to pay the higher costs. A situation has emerged where they are unable to sell their livestock and do not have enough money to feed them. Overgrazing near villages and under-grazing in high mountain pastures has led to a deterioration cropland, irrigated land and pastures that are crucial to the food and livestock production. There is also a lack of access to mountain pastures and a lack of knowledge as to how to use these pastures effectively. Improved access to credit and other financial services would allow farmers and livestock holders to invest capital in improving their farms and livestock. While some microfinance institutions that do offer help, the interest rate is too high for it to be realistic to many poor farmers, who also lack sufficient collateral. Food Security

Kyrgyzstan has experienced a dramatic increase in basic food prices, draining household coping measures. According to official data, between January 2007 and April 2009 food prices rose 51%. While this can be explained in part by the big increase in global food prices during this time, IMF data show global food prices dropping 27 percent between July 2008 and April 2009. During this time food prices in Kyrgyzstan have remained essentially unchanged; the benefits of falling global food prices are not being passed on the Kyrgyz households. More than a third of the population continues to be food insecure, including 21 percent severely food insecure and 13 percent moderately food insecure as of the third quarter of 2008. Further, poor hygiene and inadequate nutrition has contributed to increased rates of stunting and underweight observed among the severely food insecure. The rise in food prices has caused some severely food insecure families to forego the use of health services, even though they need them According to a 2008 ACTED rapid survey conducted in Alay, Chong-Alay, Karasuu and Aravan districts of Osh province, almost 67 percent of the interviewed households in the summer of 2008 spent 90-100 percent of their income (3,000 som per month for a family of 6 persons) 16 for
16

Approximately $72 ($1 = 42 som).

food. These districts are among the poorest in one of the poorest regions of Kyrgyzstan and indicate the seriousness of the situation in the remote rural areas of the country. Provinces with the highest proportions of food insecure households (severe and moderate) were Issyk-Kul (49 percent), Batken (42 percent), Jalalabat (41 percent), Talas (40 percent), Naryn (37 percent) and Osh (36 percent). Provinces with the highest proportions of severe food insecurity were Issyk-Kul (33 percent), Jalalabat (27 percent), Talas (27 percent), Naryn (25 percent), Batken (22 percent) and Osh (22 percent). Household food security in Kyrgyzstan is slowly declining. According to WFPs updated Emergency Food Security Assessment, which is based on analysis of household food security data collected by the National Statistical Committee, up to the third quarter of 2008, one household in five is at high nutritional and health risk because of poor food consumption. Their caloric intake is extremely low and the consumption of fats and oil shows a decreasing trend since 2006. A majority of the vulnerable are located in rural areas and in districts where over 20 percent of the population live below the Guaranteed Minimal Consumption Level, which is at a level below the threshold used to define the extremely poor. While the main causes of food insecurity are structural and chronic, the global economic crisis has exacerbated the problems. Rises in fuel costs (increasing by 23.3 percent) and a sharp slowdown in GDP growth (from 7.5 percent in 2008, to just 0.9 percent in 2009) have worsened existing household economic difficulties. The Government recognizes that sustainable inclusive growth is not only key to raising peoples living standards and poverty reduction, but also that this will not be easy, especially in light of considerable pressure on public financial resources in a weakening economy. Economy

While there generous Russian grants have helped to stabilize macroeconomic indicators, there is still concern over reduced growth indicators within the country and of those that it depends on (e.g. Kazakhstan and Russia). The Country Development Strategy (2009-2011) states that it is crucial to achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.6 percent. Yet, the external shocks have reduced expectations to 0.9 percent in 2009, and current information for the following year only indicates a slight improvement at 2.9 percent. The countrys projected path of sustainable development is under serious threat without further support. Remittances The country has a strong informal economy, mostly from remittances and is estimated to be from 30 to 60 percent of the GDP. Yet, in the fourth quarter of 2008, Kyrgyz banks reported remittances dropping almost by half, while the volume of the Kyrgyz external debt is still high, exceeding $2.3 billion at the end of 2008, compounding this is a widening negative trade balance (approaching USD 1.97 billion) for the first time since independence. It is estimated that 45 percent live below the poverty line, where remittances as a share of GDP have sharply increased and become one of the important sources for poverty alleviation and

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growth. Average size of remittances has been estimated at $1,419 per migrant per year. Many migrants from the Kyrgyz Republic work in sectors requiring low skills the two main sectors of employment of Kyrgyz migrants are construction (45 percent) and trade (30.4 percent). While there is no exact data exists on the number of labour migrants, it is estimated at 15-20 percent of total labor force in the country. According to 2008 ADB survey results, two-thirds (67 percent) of respondents go to the Russian Federation and 19 percent go to Kazakhstan. According to household survey data, more than 80 percent of all remittances come from the Russian Federation, slightly less than 10 percent from Kazakhstan and another 10 percent from other countries. Thus, the current recession in the CIS is hitting Kyrgyz migrant labourers particularly hard. About 70 percent of all migrants are from rural areas, 10 percent from Bishkek and 21 percent from other urban areas. The majority of remittances are sent to rural areas and 55 percent of remittances are spent on household expenditure, indicating a serious dependence of families on employment abroad. A decline in remittances will have serious effects for all types of households, considerably decrease GDP, private and government consumption. Official estimates indicate the total number of labour migrants from Kyrgyzstan mainly to Kazakhstan and Russia exceeds 500,000 and the amount of their remittances in 2008 reaching around $1.3 billion (approximately 27 percent of the GDP). But in 2009, due to global economic declines and to major job cuts in Kazakhstan and Russian, about 200,000-300,000 labour migrants are expected to come back to Kyrgyzstan and/or not migrate abroad. Job cuts are already being felt in the Osh region as thousands of labour migrants return from Russia. In April 2009, the chief of the Osh Regional State Committee on Migration, Nailya Zholdosheva, stated that last year the number of officially registered unemployed citizens in the region was just 10,000. That number has risen to 17,500 now. Local experts say that social tensions might escalate in the region if the government is not able to set up new jobs in the near future.17 Environment There is evidence of a long-term rise in temperature that has been faster in the Kyrgyz Republic than in the rest of the world (the average annual temperature has risen 1.6C during the last century versus the global average rise of 0.6C). And their effect is heightened by the exceptional topographical conditions often in locations containing contaminants, such as mining tailings, and there is a great risk of secondary technogenic disasters where any such disasters would almost certainly have trans-boundary impacts. The intensity of the degradation processes is primarily because of water runoff, and also because of inappropriate or poorly managed agricultural practices. On irrigated land, the main causes of degradation are water-logging and salinization, both of which are related to deteriorating conditions in the drainage infrastructure and poor water management. Land degradation, in addition to affecting poverty, has become a pervasive problem affecting, 88 percent of the 10.6 million hectares of land considered suitable for agro-pastoral purposes, where about 30 percent

17

Petrov, Artem (2009), http://centralasia.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/04/02/unemployment-rises-sharply-in-kazakhstan-andkyrgyzstan/

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are already at the stage of obvious desertification, 27 percent are at middle stages, and 17 percent are at early stages of desertification. Kyrgyzstans 2009-2011 Country Development Strategy (as well as the JCSS and UNDAF) regards declining land productivity and reductions in land area under cultivation in recent years as major development challenges. The Strategy calls for enhancing trans-national cooperation, strengthening rural management of land-based resources, including cropland, grazing land, forests and wetlands, and more efficient water use via the rehabilitation and modernization of Kyrgyzstans agriculture, irrigation systems and access to safe water for households. Essential service provision Many essential services such as health services and the provision of water, are essential for public health, safety and economic productivity have been negatively affected by the series of crises to hit the country. Their role is to satisfy collective and individual needs around at an adequate level of quality and at a price which is affordable for the consumer and guarantees the best use of scarce resources: natural resources, expertise, technologies, capital, etc., while taking specific local characteristics into consideration. This, however, has been compromised, particularly by energy curtailments and food insecurity. Without clean energy, water and sanitation, adequate shelter, or transport people inevitably suffer. No access to energy means businesses and homes cannot be powered. With limited transport systems, children struggle to get to school, and markets are harder to reach; making it difficult for farmers to sell their produce. Long trips frequently endured by women and children to collect water or firewood hamper productivity. As many services play an important role in the achievement of the eight UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), improved access to basic services is a significant public policy goal and the challenge is to ensure that everyone has adequate access to such services, including the poor and marginalized members of society. The overall level of basic services to population remains poor. There are marked differences in access to good quality education and healthcare services between regions and between rural and urban areas. Land degradation on irrigated territories is a major problem, this results in loss of income, in particular for the socially vulnerable groups Due to the complexity of factors at play, single targeted and sector-based interventions often have little effect on improving the overall situation and reducing the disadvantaged position of the area vis--vis the rest of the country.

The fact that almost half (43.3 per cent) of the children aged 1 to 2 years old who died, do so at home. This indicates that the childs parents do not know the danger signs of diseases, and/or do not have access to or do not contact emergency medical services in time to receive professional medical help.18

18

Achieving MDG 1b, 4 & 5 in Kyrgyzstan April 2009.

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There has been an worrisome increase in the number deaths of newborns including those weighing more than 1.5 kilogrammes indicating that children are dying due to lack of medical assistance, or because the low quality of care. A 2007 survey conducted by Sanitary Epidemiology Service (SES) department of the Ministry of Health to detect the rate of parasitic diseases among children aged 2 to 12 years in Batken province found 57 percent suffer from roundworm (ascaris), 86.3 percent from pinworm, 15.7 percent from dwarf tapeworm and 13 percent for giardia. Qualitative research among children and parents shows there is inadequate knowledge about parasitic diseases and basic hygiene practices. Under-five mortality and maternal mortality remain unacceptably high. In 2008 the maternal death rate was 54 cases per 100,000 births, while 44 children out of 1,000 live births die before they reach their fifth birthday. Only 55 percent of Kyrgyzstans hospitals and clinics are certified as baby friendly and poor nutrition is a leading cause of birth complications around 34 percent of pregnant mothers suffer from anemia. Also increasingly there are significant differences between provinces, with poorer provinces having higher maternal death rates. There are three regions, in which the poverty level as of 2007 exceeded 45 percent. These are: Jalalabat province (53 percent), Naryn province (45.2 percent) and Osh province (46.6 percent). In other regions of the country this indicator is below 45 percent. Practically in all of the regions, poverty level in rural areas is higher than in urban areas. Since 2001, there has been a significant increase in new cases of HIV infection in the Kyrgyz Republic. The spread rate of the HIV infection in the country is the highest in the world according to the WHO and UNAIDS experts. Over the past six years, the number of officially registered people living with HIV in the country has increased 23.3 fold to 1,233 people, mainly individuals of reproductive age. Improved testing methods have indicated a near doubling of cases from last year.19 Access to safe water Data on water qualities are incomplete, however, enough is known about surface waterand, in some cases, of groundwaterto know that there is a decline in municipal and rural areas is continuing to deteriorate only 28 percent of rural households have access to piped water. Water quality, especially of surface water, is under pressure from irrigation drainage discharges, agricultural pollution, and a declining level of wastewater treatment by municipalities. The problem is both a national and a trans-boundary one, leaving many still at risk of contracting harmful diseases, weakened immune systems due to low caloric intake raise risks of increased and protracted illnesses. The effects of insufficient supplies of potable water impact everything from public health, to infant survivability, to economic development, to environmental conservation and management. The widely varying socioeconomic and environmental conditions around the country require a diverse suite of water quality technologies that are each effective, low-cost, and able to be locally manufactured and maintained.
19

UNICEF study healthy lifestyle (2009).

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Traditional approaches to water quality have focused on central disinfection and management, coupled with an envisioned robust distribution system. For many communities, households, and individuals in developing nations, however, this approach not realistic, or effective at increasing public health, nor is it cost effective. In settings of poor regional infrastructure, dispersed rural dwellings, or in areas of conflict, water quality may be more effectively managed in a decentralized fashion at the point-of-use (POU) by the household or community. While POU treatment may require more effort on the part of individual households, it offers a means for households to affect their water quality independently and immediately. A common situation is one in which a large-scale piped water system is either not available, or is available but the water is of poor or inconsistent quality. In both of these settings POU disinfection device offers many advantages. For a POU system to be effective, it must be accessible to those who need it most. An accessible system will be affordable, provide excellent pathogen removal, treat the required capacity of water, operate passively and be constructed from locally available parts. To address the many different constraints that result in low water quality and availability, a new approach is needed that departs from both the traditional model of central management of water quality, and also the traditional scientific and engineering model of single, optimized, solutions. Instead, a diverse set of technologies and management practices are needed that can be: evaluated for use in diverse local settings; adapted to local needs; manufactured, distributed, and maintained locally. It is important to remain cognizant of the fact that the call for distributed, effective, water treatment technologies is not to disagree with on central station water quality systems, but is a recognition that different regions, at different levels of socioeconomic development and with different types of public health infrastructure, require a diverse set of effective solutions until such systems can be adequately be brought to all areas of the country. Risk reduction Kyrgyzstan faces two kinds of risk: natural disasters and conflict. Recent natural disasters such as the devastating earthquakes in Osh and Nura (both in 2008) demonstrate that people have not been adequately trained and that mitigating measures have not been thoroughly adopted. Statistics for the last 19 years show an ongoing rise in disasters, and 2008 saw a much higher number of emergencies that the average for the period. This included 80 percent more mudflows and flooded streams, 170 percent more earthquakes, and 200 percent more groundwater flooding. Ministry of Emergency Situations forecasts approximately 220-240 emergencies per year. On 26 March, at an inter-ministerial commission on emergency situations, a minister stated that there had to be greater focus on the prevention of natural disasters. He spoke of a need to increase village defences against flooding and mudslides, and to improve the capacity to respond quickly to such events. This is particularly a danger around key rivers in Batken, Chui, Jalalabat and Osh provinces. In 2008, despite it being a relatively dry year, approximately 80 mudflows and floods caused by melting snow, resulting in approximately $7 million worth of damages. In addition to natural disasters, as a young democracy, the Kyrgyz Republic faces a number of challenges in promoting long-term stability and peace. Corruption, lack of dialogue and trust

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between the population and the authorities, as well as between the opposition and the authorities, coupled with unequal power-relations, feeds discontentment. Relations between local selfgovernments and higher levels of authority are also often poor. This not only limits the scope of authorities to intervene in local conflicts, but demonstrates the structural disconnect that exists all the way up to the central government and Parliament. Voices also continue to be marginalized, including those of youth and women. Despite recent improvements, women are underrepresented in all levels and branches of government. The full involvement and participation of women in the prevention and resolution of conflicts in Kyrgyzstan is also hampered as a result of violence, intimidation and discrimination. Data from a baseline assessment on violence against women in Kyrgyzstan in 2008 20 indicate that various forms of violence against women exist in the country. These forms of violence include sexual, physical, economic, psychological and domestic violence. In terms of womens roles in conflict situations, women are mostly considered to be purely passive and victims. There is a lack of understanding of male and female roles in conflict situations and of the differentiated impact of existing conflicts and tensions on men and women. Kyrgyzstan is a multiethnic country with strong minority identities. Unfortunately, nationalism and the surging emphasis on ethnic belonging tend to lead groups to analyze situations in the terms of us and them. Sources of conflict are often blamed on other ethnic groups shortcomings, rather than being seen as common development challenges that could be addressed through joint efforts. The rise in religious activity, especially in the south, and the potential conflict over its place in society is also a critical element of inter-group conflict in Kyrgyzstan. Many of the issues related to religion are also linked to ethnicity with each group preferring to follow their own religious leaders. Many communities in the Ferghana Valley, for example, have deeply rooted cultural and religious traditions that resurfaced after the collapse of the Soviet Union and have resulted in the area often being described as a hotbed for Islamic extremism. After the fall of the Soviet Union, many communities on one side of the border that in the past depended on services located on the other side suddenly found themselves cut off. The situation has been further exacerbated by the fact that the borders are not clearly delineated resulting in recurring disputes and tensions about land, water, and other resources. The above conflict areas are interrelated and are influenced by other local, national and interregional factors. Among other issues, border conflicts are linked to conflicts over resources, ethnic tensions rise around a lack of access to governance structures, lack of capacity of local and national authorities perpetuate rather than relieve existing tensions, and womens poor access to discussions and decision-making processes on peace and development issues potentially acerbate the situation. The following root obstacles have been identified: First, governance challenges which are both technical (poorly qualified civil servants and high turn over of staff, weak and inappropriate laws regulating religious groups, and
20

A. Moldosheva (2008) Violence against Women in Kyrgyzstan: baseline assessment, p. 7

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problems around border management) and political (limited political will to address corruption and weak and incoherent implementation of policy). Second, corruption is seen as a widespread and deep-rooted challenge facing the country, which manifests itself in non-transparent land sales, privatization efforts, nepotism in official appointments, corrupt judiciary, and irregularities in elections, to mention some. Third, weak community and national cohesion is expressed in terms of a lost or absent state ideology, erosion of values, loss of civic identity, and limited civic pride/responsibility. It is a common theme to date and reflects a trend of eroding social cohesion in the country. The systemic effects are seen through out-migration, high crime rates, environmental problems, mistrust towards the authorities, insecurity, and irregular power/water supplies.

Capacities for peace were also analyzed in the context of Kyrgyzstan, and consist of opportunities for small and medium enterprise development, the development of cross-border markets, tourism possibilities in many of the oblasts, an active and developing civil society, and conditions for strengthening inter-ethnic harmony in the provinces. Participants, however, emphasized the weakness and vulnerability of these capacities, since they rely on values and institutions that are susceptible to political changes. Household coping strategies Due to the unprecedented occurrence and convergence of three international crises the country increasingly cannot provide adequate social protection for citizens. This has forced many to resort to limited, often harmful, coping mechanisms, such as reducing meals, eating less nutritious foods, taking children out of school, selling livestock and other assets or borrowing money to feed their families. In the case of sudden spikes in the price of food and fuel, the poor spend an even larger proportion of their income households buy less food or food that is less nutritious as it cannot be adequately cooked especially in winter. While these coping mechanisms may alleviate hunger temporarily, they have longer term affects as they lead to malnutrition, harm livelihoods and are especially harmful effects for the elderly and children.21 Around ten percent of the population receives retirement, disability and loss of breadwinner pensions in Kyrgyzstan. In 2008, the average monthly pension was $40.22 This was to take into account a 20% rise in electricity costs, but did little to mitigate high food and fuel prices, which constituted a large portion of peoples expenditures. On the 1 July 2009, pensions will rise again, to an average of 2,138 som (approximately $50). However, on the same day, there will be a scheduled 20 percent rise in electricity prices. With food prices remaining high and natural gas prices double from last year, many people receiving pensions will find it difficult to cover basic costs. In addition, the financial crisis could exacerbate the child labor situation, as children may have to go to work to supplement household income. Children are also at risk of being withdrawn from school or not enrolled. Where families have to pay school fees for their children, economic
21

For more background, see Howell, Jude (1996). Poverty and Transition in Kyrgyzstan: how some households cope, Central Asian Survey 15(1): 59-73. 22 Information from http://eng.24.kg/community/2009/05/14/8014.html and http://www.jamestown.org/single/? no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=33790 (accessed 29 May 2009).

16

hardships often leaves them with no option but to keep their children out of school. In certain cases families have to cut back on the quantity and quality of food, which leads to poorer nutrition and can have permanent effects on intellectual capacity and cause chronic poor health. This lowers educational completion rates and creates set backs in economic and social development. In difficult times, families often rely on women to care for the sick, older persons and those who cannot fend for themselves, making it difficult for women to earn an income outside the home. Culturally, women and girls are often expected to contribute financially to the family regardless of how that money is earned. When there are few opportunities for wage work, girls and women may end up being trafficked through the promise of a job or being lured or forced into prostitution and other forms of extreme exploitation. And communities or groups that have been excluded from productive resources, such as decent work and social security are likely to be highly vulnerable to the negative impact of the global financial crisis and to volatility in food and fuel prices. Assessments (TO BE ADDED)

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SECTION II: STRATEGY FRAMEWORK

Kyrgyzstan Strategy- Responding to challenge, Identifying Gaps and Further Needs The objectve of the Kyrgyzstan Strategy 2009 is to focus, 1) To ensure urgent, on-going humanitarian support to save lives and protect the vulnerable; and 2) To augment and extend existing programmes within the UN system and key activities outlined in the Country Development Strategy by designing and implementation of a programmes that initiate rapid reaction development measures that sustainably address mid-term needs and longer-term developemental goals within the next twelve to eighteen months. The strategy analyzes the current situation and proposes a comprehensive response that addresses the humanitarian crises and builds the foundation for recovery in the medium-term period. This will be achieved by recognizing that overcoming acute and chronic vulnerability and enabling communities to lift themselves out of poverty is the paramount long-term objective. However, assisting communities to prepare for and deal with the short-term realities of various risks remains a necessary pre-requisite to achieving that long-term objective. One of the quandries in this context is the fact that precarious, but chronic, social conditions typically are not considered as a humanitarian need even though they can quickly become a humanitarian crisis due to exogenous shocks such as declining remittances, energy or food price inflation, or with the collapse of the energy supply system. The reality in Central Asia, in general, and in Kyrgyzstan, in particular, does not match either a purely humanitarian nor a purely developmental definition with the corresponding complications in generating donor response, which categorizes funding and its not fungible between these categories the humanitarian development divide, the bridging of which has long been a subject of debate among practitioners and analysts concerned with disasters and emergencies. 23 As such, we have linked acute infrastructure and chronic social manifestations power cuts, economic crisis, schools closures and lack of health care, etc. within the framework of the humanitarian and mid-term needs that have not been met as a consequence of this rapid change. The aim is to develop a framework for sustainable relief through an integrated approach, where initiatives will serve to complement current humanitarian plans and link them into mid-term to longer-term strategies by engaging both government and local stakeholders. In other words, we are looking to develop a set of linked, complementary objectives that have a synergistic effect in the mid-term period with the humanitarian needs outlined in the Flash Appeal. Thus, it is important to consider a wide range of development and humanitarian tools, resources and capacities to ensure the most appropriate vehicle for delivering interventions in an integrated multi-sector approach focusing on the key needs of affected areas and populations. The Kyrgyzstan Strategy: Consolidate a package of actions that support humanitarian needs with developmental assistance in the medium term (12-18 months);
23

Flores, Khwaja and White (2005).

18

Facilitate a sustainable reduction in vulnerabilities and risks; Design and implement stand alone capacity building components while ensuring a holistic integrated response; Implement actions to enable rapid recovery of livelihoods and development; Build capacity and rapidly implement approaches that can be applied on a large scale.

The goal is to create a strategic intervention, using a knowledge-based approach, to close the gap between emergency relief and long-term development by halting slippages into a downward spiral, where losses outweigh development gains and risks of future crisis accumulate and avoid circularity of risk. Kyrgyzstan is facing a situation that requires building self-reliance through a combination of humanitarian assistance and development programmes. The capacity of the population has been seriously weakened and can easily slide into a position of insecurity due to the roll-back effects of the recent compound disaster where there has been a striking decline in quality and access to basic services, affecting the vast majority of people in their daily lives with the continued significant social and natural risk and vulnerabilities such as food insecurity, low access to water and energy and high morbidity. To address the root source, aid resources should support durable integrated programming. This includes supporting and expanding the types of integrated programs that are currently being implemented with aid resources. For this reason, relief processes needs to be situated in a broader developmental course so as to strengthen the capacity of communities to withstand and deal with not only the immediate after-effects but also reduce vulnerabilities to future natural disasters. The UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery broadly defines the main focus of Early Recovery (ER) as the process to kick-start nationally owned processes for post-crisis recovery that are sustainable, seek to build back better, strengthen human security and address the underlying causes of the crisis to avoid further relapses. In Kyrgyzstan, crisis interventions incline to reflect a narrow range of responses dominated by the provision of limited inputs where programme responses tend to be guided by one-off needs assessments driven by resource availability and agency capacities, without linkage to on-going monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment. As Darcy and Hofmann (2003, p. 16) assert, needs assessment is often conflated with the formulation of responses, in ways that can lead to resource-led intervention and close down other (perhaps more appropriate) forms of intervention. Thus it is important to consider sufficient development knowledge, needs assessment, resources and capacities go into implementation to meet objectives and preferably during preparedness and risk reduction stages as well, even though compound crisis concepts are harder to understand, and more problematical to plan for and fund than relief, it is ER process that gives back livelihoods and builds futures. And in other post-disaster situations has proven to be the

19

most appropriate vehicle for delivering interventions as an integrated multi-sectoral approach focusing on the key needs of affected areas and populations. Disasters and continued crises are costly in both human life and resources; they interrupt economic and social promotion and can lead to a gap in progress by creating separate bureaucratic structures and procedures that do not systematically take into account long-term development issues. Whereas separate/non-integrated development policy is not enough to cope with recurrent disasters, social or infrastructure deficiencies in isolation; but need to better protect vulnerable households by helping to develop and maintain systematic mitigation, reduction activities and sustainable coping strategies in partnership with post disaster relief and recovery programs. The purpose of the program is to bridge this gap by institutionalizing a cohesive disaster-to-development recovery link continuum from the onset of a disaster. Though ER concepts begins within the humanitarian setting, they go a step further in helping communities move, in parallel with emergency aid, to a self-sustaining position, however should not be thought of as a separate step on the road from emergency relief to development but act to bridge the institutional and funding gaps that are traditionally encountered in crisis and recovery programming. The key to a successful program is ownership by the affected nation providing an incentive for people to take ownership of the process and preventing an undue reliance on emergency aid at the expense of preserving economic cornerstones. Strategy Framework The Framework will have concrete interventions that: 1. Bridge the gap between immediate relief and long term reconstruction 2. Support the spontaneous recovery efforts of the communities 3. Prepare the ground for sustainable long term reconstruction 4. Reduce future disaster risks and establish the foundations for the longer-term. The framework proposes broad mechanisms and approaches for addressing the recovery priorities including support required to strengthen the capacity of local actors to manage and implement midterm recovery programmes. The induction of sector focal points provide a connection between the works on the initiates carried-out under other sectors, and ensures a coordinated approach towards common objectives, and make certain that all opportunities to concentrate on cross-cutting and thematic areas are articulated or in some cases would not otherwise be addressed. Coordination arrangements The Office of the Resident Coordinator, supported by the Early Recovery Team (ERT) and in close consultation with UN agencies, relevant Government offices and Ministries and international actors, will ensure effective and principled actions. When all agencies are included in the joint programming process, so as to ensure that inclusiveness not come at the expense of strategic focuses, but are seen critical to ensuring a coherent programme, and establish a solid division of labour, prioritize areas of interventions based first foremost on capacities, comparative advantage vis--vis partner agencies and the broader community of development partners and are consequently focused for success.

20

Implementation while not necessarily to be done jointly, but as agencies agree to disinvest from certain sectors, allocating resources and human capacities in sectors where their value added is clear; as long as monitoring mechanisms are developed so that the progress, challenges and opportunities of the individual UN Agency implementation is fed back through the Sector Focal Points. Thus it is imperative to ensure that Sector Leads and Focal Points maintain and adopt an attitude of coping with challenge by articulating not only what it is we need, but how we will best meet this challenge and to remain focus to the overall outcome, as this is critical to ensure the promotion of sound results based joint programming in order to make optimal use of resources and capacities available according to a clear division of labor and comparative advantages. Critical in ensuring programme coherence and focus will also allow for the access to resources available through the non-resident agencies, as they provide supplemental assets to the UN resident system to express their concerns in meeting longer term development planning framework. Thus by planning together, duplication and cost will be substantially decreased, and synergies between UN activities are increased, moreover, the potential access to resources which can be deployed by interagency activities will also act as a positive incentive towards further collaborative work and mutual success. Coordinating Leads and responsibilities Humanitarian- RC/UNCT, ERT Humanitarian actions and emergencies should be responded to through appropriate mechanisms, including the Central Emergency Response Fund and the Common Appeal Process (CAP). Mid-term development - RC/UNCT, ERT Will provide strategic leadership throughout the programming process, bringing together relevant analytical capacities, and developing synergies among the various UN assets and mandates, including mobilization of additional resources. These sectors for intervention are identified as the areas where the UN has the comparative advantage and capacity to deliver in an effective and efficient manner. Each sector of intervention will have its own lead agency, based on the primacy of its role or mandate in the area, but the main management principle is that implementation of programme components will be carried out by individual participating agencies and/or national implementation partners. The implementing UN Agencies carry both programmatic and financial accountability for their activities, although activities may be carried out by implementing partners (Government counterparts, NGOs, or even other UN Agencies) Decentralized small-scale alternative and renewable energy: UNDP Agricultural safekeeping: FAO Household food security: WFP Essential service provision: UNICEF and WHO Environmental and Water resource management: UNDP and FAO; and Risk reduction and Mitigation: UNDP

Resource Mobilization
21

Humanitarian CERF, CAP Development Development as One Extended Funding Window, bilateral, HQ and Government of Kyrgyzstan

Strategic Planning Development UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF), Joint Common Support Strategy (JCSS) and the Country Development Strategy. Priorities Primary infrastructure and lifeline facilities: Restoring and enhancing the capacity of basic services that have either been destroyed or damaged during the current crisis. Supporting the most vulnerable people/groups through reviving livelihoods: Support local communities to gain a foothold in markets and develop agricultural and job creation initiatives. Emphasis on rural and inaccessible areas; particularly vulnerable groups in urban focal areas to be also include: Elderly poor There is an estimated 100,000 elderly poor. Many pensioners are unable to pay for their electricity and gas. Persons with documentation problems There is an estimated 12,000 persons with documentation problems. Many of these are internal migrant labourers who are unable to procure residence registration in Bishkek. Social institutions Most social institutions are represented by health facilities and schools. There are roughly 39,500 people in these institutions and another 5,000 living on the street. Approach An integrated approach will be used, in which focused humanitarian action targets socially and economically marginalized households and communities as well as individuals and households that are vulnerable to a variety of risks in a manner that is immediate, targeted, pro-active, and stimulated by humanitarian principles. All initiatives will serve to complement current plans to engage with both government and local stakeholders with the assistance of the international community by supporting on-going humanitarian assistance and supporting spontaneous recovery efforts of the affected populations; supporting livelihoods and restoring essential basic services. Particular attention will be given to the needs of women, youth, elderly people and other vulnerable groups who have suffered as a result of the recent crisis. If their needs are not met adequately, early recovery interventions might result in further marginalization and the loss of progress towards achieving the MDGs and other development goals. Lessons applied and considerations There are number of lessons and supplementary considerations gained from other similar efforts and regional experiences that will be implemented in this appeal strategy: Link relief to development;

22

Be aware of overlapping causes of vulnerability; Recurrent shocks lead to a poverty trap and make a long-term perspective critical; Priority must be given to preventative as opposed to curative interventions; Chronic vulnerability is not just a rural issue: though urban-based programming requires special considerations. Considerations Applying traction: This specifically refers to supporting and initiating on-going activities by ensuring cross-cutting priorities are met, mainstreaming gender and environmental sustainability and creating awareness about the relevance of human rights. Accountability: Horizontal and downward to peers, not just upward to central levels. Sustainability: Ensuring that fiscal, asset, environmental, and social measures are sustainable. There are two additional areas that will be developed under the strategy: an inter-agency risk monitoring system and a needs analysis. 1. Inter-agency Risk Monitoring System (IRMS) Risks are associated with a combination of hazards and vulnerabilities. Assessments of risk requires a systematic collection and analysis of data and needs to take into account the dynamic nature of vulnerabilities that arise due to both human social-economic and natural impacts. The types of data required include land use, environmental degradation, consequences of economic deficiencies and natural events such as drought, floods earthquakes and climate change. This will help ensure effective response to acute and slow-on-set shocks, and not divert resources from more sustainable programmes, but disentangling autonomous short-term emergency responses from a holistic approach. The problem of information is not so much the collection, as this is currently being done at many levels and by various elements throughout the country. It is more in establishing a credible system for effective coordinated monitoring, analysis and information flows. The problem lies in that although information is channeled through different elements of the national and international systems, collection and analysis is not done, nor can be accessed at a central coordinated level. Thus what data/information is available is usually difficult to find, disjointed, with questionable quality, and might rely on limited sources or narrowed outlooks created by constrictive or independent mandates. A complete and effective multi-hazards approach comprises of inter-related components. It is coordinated to gain the benefits of shared institutional knowledge of hazards and vulnerabilities, and enhance capacity, functionality and timely response through mutual systematic collection and analysis of data. Best practices have shown that effective risk monitoring systems have strong inter-linkages and effective communication channels between all the elements which encourage rapid decision making and are supported by broader administrative and resource capacities at the regional and international levels. The aim of the Inter-agency Risk Monitoring System (IRMS) is to enhance outcomes by allowing the continuation of development interventions, with appropriate flexibility and prompt
23

modifications to respond to changing circumstances, the shocks may be current/ongoing, frequent or potential, while adding emergency resources with the goal of enhancing longer-term impact. This is particularly so in slow-onset and sub-national crisis and will be done through selection indicators, definition of thresholds, enhanced monitoring, and analysis, reporting capacities and consideration for action. In other words, develop baseline precursor events to monitoring social vulnerability and needs, which will be instrumental to quantify changes in social resilience which focuses on what is already in place: resources and adaptive capacities (OBrien et al. 2006: 71; Manyena 2006). Following recommendations made in the Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment (2009, p. 10), that development agencies should increase their human resources and other capacities to engage in disaster prevention programming, either on a permanent or surge capacity basis. Many of the problems Kyrgyzstan is facing now do warrant additional human resources to implement crisis programming. In addition, risk management systems need to be put in place to understand the dynamics and evolution of the crisis, and further changes to the humanitarian situation. This will build in an element of preparedness to better ensure against falling into a repeated humanitarian needs cycle. Following the recommendations made in the Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment, a risk management system needs to be developed. Risk needs to be understood as not only associated with a single event, but is also dependent upon the coping ability of resilience of households and communities. Crises are most often the result of a complex interaction of many overlapping factors. This needs to be developed within a larger multi-agency system to collect data, analyze and disseminate information within an Inter-agency Risk Monitoring System. The Interagency Risk Monitoring System (IRMS) objectives will be: To improve the quality and quantity of socio-economic (and hydrological) data, so that key development trends may be appropriately monitored and assessed, and the appropriate risk mitigation and early recovery responses designed and implemented;24 To improve overall UNCT response; To strengthen national early warning/risk monitoring activities (by governments and the international community), and developing appropriate regional linkages between these activities. To appropriate modifications of programmes to respond to changing circumstances; To ensuring UNCT core competencies and areas of concern are addressed. To accomplish this, the Early Recovery Team (ERT), with the support of UN agencies, will develop a set of socio-economic and natural event indicators that measure communities change in risk and that provide information on issues that are relevant to decision making and the appropriate swift response. The indicators will focus on describing the conditions and status of the poorest and most vulnerable households using the PSIR (Pressure State Impact Response) model to identify the causes, effects and consequences of emerging crisis.

24

Such improvements could also lay the basis for better reporting by UN agencies to donors concerning project outcomes, as well as more extensive codification and dissemination of lessons learned.

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1. Why is this happening? (Pressure including dangers and threat factors) The formulation of risk: the probability of occurrence for a given threat ; and the degree of susceptibility of the element exposed to that source, analysis must move beyond the singular, backward-looking event-logging approach to context-based, forward-looking methodologies that monitor precursors. 2. What is happening? (State) Understand the most likely threats, likelihood of disasters and their potential consequences. Although natural disasters and crisis are not precisely predictable, and are mostly anticipated, based on past experience, the analysis should include areas such as the current patterns of land use, or population distribution, etc. 3. What are the consequences? (Impact) The negative impact, or the disaster, will depend on the characteristics, probability and intensity of the hazard, as well as the susceptibility of the exposed elements (both people and assets based on physical, social, economic and environmental conditions). 4. What is being done in this regard (Response)? What resources are being allocated and what resources are possible and by whom. Proper response depends on the quality and credibility of the overall system: understanding threats, clear priority setting and institutional networks, etc. 5. What would happen if we do not take action? (Prospective vision) Responses may require rapid outside assistance, but its success cannot be accomplished without the benefits of widespread decision making and the participation of many others partners. Developing and implementing an effective IRMS requires the resources and coordination of several key actors as partitioning creates a patchwork of isolated approaches rather than a coherent, comprehensive, and connected view within the various elements as there are obvious functional parallels in risk assessments, monitoring and warning, dissemination and communication, response capability through: Applied research: Continuous review and analysis of secondary data based on information from a wide range of informants in a regular, quick and standardized way. This should include research institutes, embassies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local networks. Specific interval and time-sensitive assessments. Ensure that national, regional and international monitoring systems and data are holistically analyzed and incorporated (metrological, social and economic). This should include current data and information from outside sources such as FEWS, GRIP, etc. Monitor mitigating processes, causes of resilience or local knowledge and coping mechanisms employed by indigenous stakeholders when confronted with stressful situations produced by crisis and/or environmental change. Identifying early-stage indicators of increased vulnerabilities that would signify at the earliest point possible and help track deteriorating conditions at various points in time, for example, one can review market price datasets to determine at what level the price of a
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staple crop is typically associated with increases in acute malnutrition or other signs of population stress (migration to different areas for work or pulling children out of school) and other coping strategies. Alerting government and other elements to verify the problem and identify target groups and mobilization the proper level of response to protect livelihoods and prevent additional stresses.

The diverse elements which are needed to ensure coordinated and effectual endeavors in anticipating and managing risk and shocks of vulnerable groups will come from several different levels and will ensure: National Government Are responsible for ensuring policies and frameworks, facilitate national technical assistance and ensuring that the timely availability of data is received from all relevant ministries. Regional institutions and organization Provide timely specialized knowledge and advice. International bodies Provide coordination, standardization and foster exchange for data, knowledge and response. Disaster Response Coordination Unit (DRCU) Will be responsible for the final collection and analysis of data that have been collected by the network and consolidated by REACT IRMS Framework for Action Local partners will be provided with standardized monthly survey forms, for the collecting of village and household data. The northern and southern REACT teams will be responsible to assimilate and collect monthly standardized survey forms from partners at the rayon and district level. This information will then be sent to the DRCU for consolidation and analysis. DRCU will, on a monthly basis, report back to the RC/UNCT by providing a written analytical report as well as a short presentation of activity, changing trends and emerging issues. The reports and surveys will be based on information collected at the international, regional, country and local level using standardized reporting formats A key component of the IRMS is the Sentinel Site Surveillance (SSS). Such surveillance provides a means of monitoring community level trends in nutrition as well as related sectors to be able to detect changes at a local level and decide when action is required. Sites are selected based upon their relative vulnerability in order to provide first-alert information in a timely

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fashion. Selection is tied to the ability to conduct ongoing surveillance on specific population groups or villages that include populations at risk and represent the various geographical areas. Sentinel Site Surveillance is to be carried out in all provinces on a monthly basis. Sites have been selected according to set criteria (see below) which have been standardized throughout. Within each site, information is gathered both in households and at the community level. At the community level, there are formal focus group discussions with key informants and an informal focus group discussion with youth leaders, women leaders, teachers, and community health workers. Individual interviews are held with key informants such as medical officers and other specialists where possible. The market is also visited to obtain current price information on key commodities. Finally, interviews are held at household level to determine dietary habits, food sources, coping strategies, illnesses, and deaths. With high risk of assessment fatigue, especially in the sentinel site situation, it is important to keep visits to households as short as possible. Therefore, information that is relatively similar within a community is collected via focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Only information that greatly differs from household to household or that changes substantially from month to month is collected from individual households. Below is a list of the data collected at household and community level from the sentinel sites. Data collection allows key indicators to be followed on a monthly basis in order to be able to detect a change in the situation, potentially indicating the need for a response. Sentinel Site Selection Sentinel site surveillance does not provide a representative sample of a population because it serves a different purpose than survey data. It involves a purposeful selection from sentinel sites, thus, the criteria for site selection are: Expected harvest; People who have lost their livelihoods; There is frequent movement, in and out; There is little/no information available; Accessible. Within large areas that have been selected as sentinel sites, it is necessary to begin by determining if the whole area is equally vulnerable or if some parts/sectors are more vulnerable than others. If they seem to be equally vulnerable, the part/sector to be sampled is randomly selected. If there is one part/sector that is known to be more vulnerable, then that location will be sampled. All localities are rated on each selection criteria above and given a score of 0 (not true), 0.5 (partially true), or 1 (true). Scores were tallied with a maximum of 6 points. All localities with at least half the selection criteria (3 points) were included. 2. Rapid multi-sector needs analysis The assessment will be used to present compelling evidence of the relevance and of relief and recovery needs and will help to ensure coordinated coverage in addressing post-crisis situations and its potential to enable a rapid and sustainable recovery of livelihood for a medium term (1227

18 month) response to these problems. Data will be collected through semi-structured interviews (open questions) with Key Informants and Focus Groups. As much as possible, semi-structured interviews with households individually will also be undertaken. Objectives The assessment will provide a quantitative indicative snapshot of the needs at rural sectors that will provide the basis for the strategic framework stating the prioritized 12-18 month response activities to promote a rapid and sustainable recovery by: Establishing the pre-crisis baseline in the targeted sector; Determining probable impact of the financial crisis that will require humanitarian response; Identifying vulnerable groups and the particular problems they face; Identifying specific interventions specifically linked to particular issues and locations.

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SECTION III: AREAS OF INTERVENTION

Based on the principles of the strategy framework, there are a number of interventions that can be implemented that would contribute to lessening the effects of the compound crisis. These build on existing competencies and, in many cases, initiatives that can be quickly deployed to help those in greatest need.
Areas of intervention Livelihood and income recovery Interventions Design and implementation of emergency employment schemes (e.g. rehabilitation of community infrastructure) Micro- and small-enterprise recovery through short-cycle business-management training, cash grants, access to microfinance schemes Labor intensive rehabilitation works for restoration of infrastructure Train the trainers in seismically resilient shelter construction, local engineers, and local contractors, self-builders and community masons Technical assistance in designing seismically resilient shelters is provided on an ongoing basis Support for agriculture and livestock Agro forestry including support for fuel efficient stoves Introduce family greenhouses Identify alternative/affordable building technologies for rehabilitation/reconstruction (e.g., Insulation kits for schools, hospitals and other critical infrastructures) Support to local traders to meet the market demands for construction materials Training of men and women in house building skills Collaboration with UN-Habitat, local and state emergency architects produced and disseminated of awareness poster on seismically resilient construction techniques. Produce a set of training and promotional materials, such as booklets guidelines, posters and sample drawings in support of spontaneous construction techniques that are seismically resilient. Institute a demand-driven financing mechanism to provide communities especially woman and other vulnerable groups with direct access to resources to support small-scale reconstruction activities and promote community organizations and empowerment e.g., block grants. Restore small infrastructures e.g., road repairs, culvert repairs, community centred repair, school repair, water and sanitation infrastructure. Rehabilitation of essential government facilities and provision of assets (e.g., office equipment) Support to national information management systems, 29

Shelter

Restoration of community Infrastructure

Restoration of local capacity:

 Disaster risk reduction Environment

Water

Energy

Education

including geographic information systems Support for ER resource mobilization efforts and the tracking of donor assistance Support to civil society to enable and facilitate their participation in decision-making processes Strengthen early warning communication system Community based training on in disaster reduction Risk assessment of communities Training of volunteers for disaster preparedness and response Construction of avalanche shelters Household flood mitigation Improve watershed and sustainable land management in remote and environmentally degraded areas Introduce hydraulic water ram irrigation schemes to vulnerable communities Strengthen community water committees and sources of water Arrest and reverse environmental degradation, and ensure that environmental considerations are integrated into the planning and development of sector projects Environment impact assessment Restoration of ecological destruction and support for further protection and rehabilitation Restoration of Greenbelt areas through the introduction of appropriate seedlings and seeds (e.g.,. home-community based nurseries program, grasses for fodder and soil stabilization) Introduce hydraulic water ram irrigation schemes to vulnerable communities Rangeland management and establishment of cold chains and abattoirs for the hilly areas would promote the latent potential in the livestock sector. Planting of trees and shrubs in the mountain areas would mitigate effects of natural disasters such as floods and landslides More efficient use of rain fed and irrigated arable land for the sustainable production of forage crops for livestock Community managed Alternative and Renewable energy Technologies (AReTs)- Pico and mini-hydroelectric power stations, bio fuel and solar energy to outlining and vulnerable communities Identify vulnerable areas to implement model teacher/school programs Implement school gardens

6) Sector Response Plans

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Decentralized energy Overall objective To expand renewable energy technologies, such as solar power, biomass, and small hydro in order to ensure that remote critical institutions receive a reliable source of energy to provide urgent, life-saving treatment. In addition, this will reduce poverty, ensure health and education objectives and improve Kyrgyzstans carbon profile. Key strategic objectives To ensure reliable energy access for primary healthcare and education facilities, proper refrigeration for vaccines and other medicines, including basic diagnostic equipment, improvement of non-electric household energy supply, promotion of efficient energy use in income and employment generating activities, training of local craftspeople and skilled workers in the construction of the distribution network, promotion of energy efficient buildings, appliances and techniques. Rationale Kyrgyzstan is experiencing energy challenges ranging from inadequate supply to the infrastructure unable to handle increasing demand. This is particularly true in the rural areas where 65 percent of the Kyrgyz population resides and in which many live below the poverty line in part due to not being reliably connected to the national electricity grid. 25 Official data for 2008 show electric power generation dropping by 18.5% in the Kyrgyz Republic during the first eleven months of 2008 forcing rural communities to rely on firewood and other local fuel sources for heat and cooking. In addition to reflecting material hardships, reliance on wood fuels exacerbates problems of deforestation and land degradation, indoor air pollution concerns as well as greenhouse gas emissions. The National Energy Programme of Kyrgyzstan (through 2010) and the Strategy for the Fuel and Energy Complex Development (through 2025) call for rapid expansion of renewable technology. Greater use of renewable energy will also improve living standards in Kyrgyzstans poorest communities.
Agricultural and household food security

Overall objective To support the relief and rehabilitation processes of the agricultural sector to ensure food security; enhance planning and coordination of agricultural responses to assist the most vulnerable population, build the capacities of the Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with the civil society organizations involved in agricultural relief, rehabilitation and development activities. Key strategic objectives To improve livelihoods, ensure food security of most vulnerable households through assisting the Government of Kyrgyzstan in its efforts undertaken to reverse the degradation of upland resources and deterioration of local people income by protecting their key economic assets, and increasing fodder, crop and vegetable production Rationale
25

General poverty is calculated as those who earn less that $265 per year. Extreme poverty is calculated as those who early less than $173 per year. United Nations, The Second Periodic Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals in the Kyrgyz Republic (2009), p. 10-11.

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Chronic food insecurity in Kyrgyzstan is quickly descending into repeated appeals for repeated humanitarian assisstance. A series of exogenous shocks have largely contributed to a deterioration in social conditions that has been aggravated by the global economic, but is also related to low levels of investment in the past in upgrading energy and water infrastructures. These have stunted development and created serious acute humanitarian changes to household coping capacities and societal setbacks. Environmental and Water Resource Management Overall objective To strengthen and improve the management, conservation, and sustainable use of environmental and water resources by promoting social and economic growth. Key strategic objectives To enhance the efficiency of agricultural and household production, processing and marketing to increase income and employment. To promote the sustainable stewardship of water resources and clean drinking water. This will enhance rural livelihoods while improving water resource management. Rationale The maintenance of environmental and water resources are essential for providing for basic human welfare and improving the livelihoods of some of the most remote and vulnerable people in the country. Without proper management of resources, land degradation will limit productivity and in some areas increase the risk of natural disasters. Further, water-borne diseases could increase if people do not have access to clean water. Risk monitoring Besides promoting inter-sectoral and inter-agency coordination, the UNCT will continue to develop coordination products, tools and services that will be made available to the United Nations, broader international community and Government. Priority areas for coordination include a Risk Monitoring System, in an effort to generate advance notice to determine new areas for emerging concerns. Strategic Objectives Develop and implement common strategies to address humanitarian, protection and conflict support needs, Maintain and disseminate a consolidated overview of needs and responses to challenges to humanitarian, development and conflict support activities; Establish and maintain systems for risk monitoring and warning; Improve interagency preparedness and response to natural disasters, both slow-on-set and acute. Essential service provision Overall objective To strengthen critical institutions and support the effective and timely administration of essential services. Key strategic objective:
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To enhance the capacity of critical institutions (i.e. hospitals, other medical facilities and schools) to meet basic standards in care, especially for the most vulnerable sectors of the population and people living in the remote areas of the country. To reduce the risk that these population groups are unable to access these essential services. Rationale Delivery of basic services is constrained by insufficient resources, inadequate structure of services, weak capacities of service providers, and inadequate quality as reflected in poor client satisfaction. Recent trends reveal poor health, development and education outcomes for children, an inadequate health status for the general population and the absence of a comprehensive safetynet system. Internal migration into the larger urban centers has resulted in deteriorating access to essential services such as birth registration, immunization and other child health services, school enrolment and regular school attendance. In recent months, rural areas have experienced difficulties with the delivery of services essential for life, such as water, sanitation, electricity, education and health care. For example, energy deficits have led to disruptions in access to healthcare services in rural areas around the country. The cold chain has been seriously affected in these rural areas. Lack of heating in rural maternity houses has led to an increase in home births. In addition, 852 schools were closed for an additional 1-2 months over the winter, and there are indications that the water and heating systems in some of these schools have broken down. This has also affected the delivery of services essential for life, such as water, sanitation, electricity and education and health care. Risk reduction and mitigation Overall objective To strengthen institutional capacities; reduce vulnerability to the natural and manmade hazards; and limit human, economic, and financial losses due to these disasters. Key strategic objectives To increase peoples awareness about natural hazards and to develop local community capacities to respond more efficiently to them, limiting the potential of humanitarian disasters. Rationale Kyrgyzstan is prone to rapid and slow onset disasters caused by floods, landslides, mudflows and droughts, as well as earthquakes. Their effect on the national economy as well as on individual households and livelihoods can be severe. Awareness of and the preparedness for disasters, however, are only marginally developed, despite the prevailing risks and the increase in incidences. A shift from response towards prevention, preparedness and mitigation is thus required. Risk monitoring Besides promoting inter-sectoral and inter-agency coordination, the UNCT will continue to develop coordination products, tools and services that will be made available to the United Nations, broader international community and Government. Priority areas for coordination

33

include a Risk Monitoring System, in an effort to generate advance notice to determine new areas for emerging concerns. Strategic Objectives Develop and implement common strategies to address humanitarian, protection and conflict support needs, Maintain and disseminate a consolidated overview of needs and responses to challenges to humanitarian, development and conflict support activities; Establish and maintain systems for risk monitoring and warning; Improve interagency preparedness and response to natural disasters, both slow-on-set and acute.

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Annex 1 Proposed Projects

Sector Organisation Project Title

Essential Service Provision

UNFPA

Ensuring access to affordable health services in the affected areas of the country for women of reproductive age Strengthening the Immunization Cold Chain Improving Insulation of Schools Reduction of maternal mortality (?) TBD The Naryn Area-Based Development project

Essential Service Provision Essential Service Provision Essential Service Provision Access to Basic Services / Agriculture and Household Food Security / Integrated environmental and water resource management Agriculture and Household Food Security

UNICEF UNICEF UNFPA / WHO / UNICEF UNDP

FAO UNIFEM

/ Immediate time critical assistance to enhance livelihoods and food security of most vulnerable households by protecting their key economic assets, and increasing fodder, crop and vegetable production. Support for the relief and rehabilitation processes of the agricultural sector Food Assistance to severely food insecure families to achieve minimally acceptable dietary intake and prevent depletion of assets. Decentralized, small-scale renewable energy sources (RES) for rural hospitals Provision of power supply and heating to critical institutions in disaster-prone remote areas using renewable energy technologies Disaster risks mitigation in the most disaster prone areas in KR Raising awareness of children in disaster prevention, preparedness and response Strengthening school students capacity to address environmental land resources as mitigation factor for disaster risk prevention.

Agriculture and Household Food Security Agriculture and Household Food Security Decentralized, small scale alternative and renewable energy Decentralized, small scale alternative and renewable energy Disaster Risk Mitigation Disaster Risk Mitigation Reduction Reduction

FAO WFP

UNDP WHO

and UNDP and UNDP UNV

Risk Reduction and Mitigation

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Risk Reduction and Mitigation

UNV

Strengthening Kyrgyzstan capacity to address Disaster Risk Reduction strategies and Mitigation at the Community Level through the volunteer medium. Capacity building at the community level on Disaster Preparedness and Response Management Seed farms development as contribution into food safety. Lowering land degeneration level Reversing the degradation of upland resources and deterioration of local people income

Risk Reduction and Mitigation

WHO

Integrated environmental and water resource management Integrated environmental and water resource management Integrated environmental and water resource management

UNDP UNDP FAO

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Annex 2 Scenarios for Kyrgyzstan over next 18 months

Scenario Description Root Causes Global economic crisis; Weak and poor economic policies Steep fall in remittances, causing a sharp rise in poverty Lack of livelihoods; Lack of job generation; Collapse of government social support mechanisms Lack of data on returning migrants; Poor testing and identification of people living with HIV/AIDS; Lack of information for labour migrants about health dangers Economy dependent on remittances; Household coping mechanisms too reliant on remittance inflow; Weakened or reduced access to livelihoods Lack of imports; Continued fragility of agricultural sector; Lack of nutritional understanding Lack of resources; Limited access to few remaining resources; History of tensions, playing on stereotypes; Unclear legislation over resource rights; Poor knowledge of efficient resource use; Lack of dialogue and mediation mechanisms; Political tensions Poor energy sector infrastructure; High transmission losses; Poor tariff and payment mechanisms;

Worst Case

Protracted and deep economic crisis in Russia and Kazakhstan forces Kyrgyzstani migrant workers to return Returning migrants lead to increased unemployment and heightened struggle over natural resources, especially land Returning migrants bring back diseases, including HIV/AIDS, but is under-reported and the threat is unknown

Continued rise in food prices, creating acute malnutrition, particularly among vulnerable groups Rise in inter-group conflict over natural resources, especially in border regions

In spring 2010, Toktogul Reservoir approaches or reaches dead level, depriving millions of electricity and heat. Knock-on effects for downstream countries during following vegetation period, leading to

37

heightened regional tensions Repairs at Bishkek Combined Power Plant are delayed or not thorough enough, or fuel stocks are low or are not supplied, causing the plant to work at minimum capacity, providing energy only to a few residents and critical institutions in central Bishkek. Lack of energy causes serious problems in critical institutions. In addition, water pumping equipment and sewage treatment plants can no longer operate, leading to a severe decline in water and sanitation standards Two thirds of schools are forced to close for more than two months

Theft and non-payment; Inefficient use of resources Poor energy sector infrastructure; Lack of alternative energy sources; Lack of regional agreements on power sharing; Extremely cold winter

Poor energy infrastructure; Large scale theft of essential equipment; Few alternative power supplies available for critical institutions and infrastructure Poor energy infrastructure; Limited alternative power supplies available for children; Lack of winterization and insulation for schools; Lack of appropriate resources to ensure adequate standards Poor energy infrastructure; Energy grid does not sufficiently reach rural areas; Lack of alternative energy sources; Poor understanding of disaster risk mitigation and management Disaster risk mitigation and management structures in early stage of development; Government lacks capacity to handle large-scale natural disasters; Difficult to access remote areas; Transportation to hospitals problematic; Hospitals do not have capacity to handle major disasters; Cold chain not effective and medicines cannot be easily distributed; No seismic proofing for buildings or major infrastructures;

Lack of energy leads to an increase in deforestation (including fruitbearing trees), reducing livelihoods and increasing risk of natural disasters (avalanches, mudslides and landslides)

Large scale earthquake hits densely populated area, major infrastructure and/or dislodges uranium tailings, resulting in high death toll and possible pollution of regional arteries

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Influenza pandemic hits Kyrgyzstan, overpowering government coping strategies, resulting in a high death toll

Normal Case

Economic stagnation in Russia forces some Kyrgyzstani migrant workers to return home. Economy continues to perform poorly until mid-2010 Returning migrants lead to a small rise in unemployment and there are isolated cases of conflicts over natural resources due to local circumstances Returning migrants bring back diseases, including HIV/AIDS, but is under-reported and the threat is unknown

Lack of disaster preparedness by population; No investment into securing hazardous materials Cold chain not effective and vaccinations cannot be easily distributed; Lack of government capacity to handle pandemic No known stockpiling of influenza vaccinations; Energy curtailments force many critical institutions to shut down; Poor nutrition makes the population susceptible to disease; Hospitals and staff do not have capacity to handle pandemic; Poor knowledge of medical practitioners Global economic crisis; Some measures introduced to restructure economy

Poor livelihood development schemes; Insufficient government social support mechanism

Fall in remittances, but not significantly as many workers in trade and services retain their jobs in Russia, poverty indicators rise somewhat

Lack of data on returning migrants; Poor testing and identification of people living with HIV/AIDS; Lack of information for labour migrants about health dangers Country and household coping strategies not overly reliant on remittance inflow; Limited access to livelihoods

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Continued rise in food prices, malnutrition is a concern, but does not present a drastic change on current levels

Limited imports; Continued reduction in agricultural outputs; Lack of nutritional understanding Limited access to resources; History of tensions; Unclear legislation over resource rights; Poor knowledge of efficient resource use; Lack of dialogue and mediation mechanisms; Political tensions Poor energy sector infrastructure; High transmission losses; Weak tariff and payment mechanisms; Ineffective use of resources Poor energy infrastructure; Lack of alternative energy sources; Sufficient fuel reserves and supply to meet expected demand; Agreements established for fuel imports Poor energy infrastructure; Limited alternative power supplies available for critical institutions and infrastructure

Isolated incidents of inter-group conflict over natural resources, especially in border regions, largely a continuation of existing tensions

Toktogul Reservoir remains at a low level, energy curtailments are enforced. There is a small chance of knock-on effects for downstream countries during following vegetation period Repairs at Bishkek Combined Power Plant maintain its current capacity, however, curtailments are still required

Energy curtailments disrupt work at critical institutions, especially those without generators. In addition, some water pumping equipment and sewage treatment plants break due to constant electricity flux. There is damage and disruption to water supply and sanitation systems in some areas Nearly half of schools in the country are forced to close due to energy curtailments

Poor energy infrastructure; Limited alternative power supplies available for children; Lack of winterization and insulation for schools; Lack of appropriate resources to ensure adequate standards

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Energy curtailments lead to deforestation (including fruit-bearing trees) in some areas, reducing livelihoods and increasing risk of natural disasters

A series of avalanches, landslides and mudslides affect mountainous and remote areas, causing deaths and disruption to transportation

Seasonal diseases cause increased infection, but limited access to health facilities is available

Short-term economic stagnation in Russia and Kazakhstan. Few Kyrgyzstani migrant workers return home.

Poor energy infrastructure; Energy grid does not sufficiently reach rural areas; Limited alternative energy sources; Poor understanding of disaster risk mitigation and management Disaster risk mitigation and management structures in early stage of development; Government lacks capacity to handle serious natural disasters; Difficult to access remote areas; Transportation to hospitals problematic; Hospitals do not have capacity to handle major disasters; Cold chain works only in some parts, delaying the time medicines can be distributed; No seismic proofing for buildings or major infrastructures; Lack of disaster preparedness by population Cold chain working in only some parts of the country; Access to hospitals a problem; Energy curtailments force many critical institutions to shut down; Poor nutrition makes the population susceptible to disease; Hospital and staff do not have capacity to handle high number of cases; Poor knowledge of medical practitioners Global economic crisis; Strong measures taken to reduce affects of crisis

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Best case

After a short rise, unemployment figures decline as foreign businesses reinvest in the country and create job places

Maintenance of livelihoods; Continued job generation; Continued government social support mechanism Improved testing quickly identifies new cases; Improved data on returning migrants and domestic cases of people living with HIV/AIDS; Increased awareness of health dangers Strict macroeconomic measures followed by Central Bank; Household coping mechanisms not overly reliant on remittances; Improved access to livelihoods Increased imports; Strong measures taken to improve agricultural production; Increased availability of fertilizers; Extension services provides for farmers; Improved knowledge of nutrition Improved access to resources; Attempts to improve legislation over resource rights; Improved efficient use of resources; Improved dialogue and mediation mechanism; Reduced political tensions Energy sector weak; Transmission losses; Improved tariff and payment mechanisms; Reduced theft; Improved use of resources

No major outbreak of HIV/AIDS is detected

Remittances fall slightly, but recover. Poverty remains at current levels

Food prices stabilize. Nutrition continues to improve throughout the country

Inter-group tensions exist, but there are no open conflicts, border areas remain calm

Government energy strategies work and Toktogul Reservoir avoids reaching the dead level. Curtailments affect many, but there are no serious consequences. Small-businesses suffer the most.

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Repairs at Bishkek Combined Power Plant strengthen its current capacity

Energy curtailments are kept to minimum. Generators at critical institutions are able to meet demand. Water pumping equipment and sewage treatment plants are unaffected. Only a few schools in remote areas forced to close

Greater financial investment; Guaranteed fuel imports; Fuel stocks at maximum capacity before winter; Mild winter Weak energy infrastructure; Critical institutions provided with alternative sources of energy

Minimum energy curtailments prevent the need for people to cut down trees for heating. The risk of landslides and avalanches is reduced. People keep fruit-bearing trees and continue their livelihoods. The country does not suffer from a significant natural disaster. There are expected avalanches, landslides and mudslides, but there are no major fatalities

Minimal seasonal illnesses are reported

Weak energy infrastructure; Limited alternative power supplies available for children; Lack of winterization and insulation for schools; Few resources to ensure adequate standards Weak energy infrastructure; Access to alternative energy sources; Improved understanding of disaster risk mitigation and management Emergency measures in place are sufficient to meet scale of disasters; Access to hospitals remains good; Hospital and staff capacity is not overstretched; Demands are not beyond the professional understanding of medical personnel Cold chain operating; Improved nutrition; Access to hospitals; Improved detection of illnesses; Government coping strategies are not overstretched

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