Russias Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications

Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair In Political Economy eberstadt@aei.org American Enterprise Institute Washington, DC 21 October 2010
1

Here We Go Again
Russian Population, 1897-2009 (current boundaries, millions)
160 140

120 Population (estimated), millions

100

80

60

40

20

0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: 1897-2000: Dalkat Ediev, Application of the Demographic Potential Concept to Understanding the Russian Population History and Prospects: 1897-2100, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2001, Figure 1. [spreadsheet] 2001-2009: Goskomstat/Rosstat, Total Population of Russian Federation, 1897-2009, http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htm (accessed 19 October 2010).

Depopulation With Russian Characteristics

Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population: Russian Federation, 1970-2009 3,000,000
2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000
Population

1,000,000 500,000
Births

0
Deaths

-500,000
-1,000,000

Natural Increase

2006

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Source: For 1970-2008: Demographic Yearbook of the Russian Federation [various editions] (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow) ; for 2009: Rosstat/Goskomstat, http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htm (accessed October 19, 2010).

2008

Thoroughly European
Total Fertility Rates in Russia vs. Selected Western Nations, 1950-2000

From Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich, Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation. RAND, 2001.

DifficultBut Not Impossible

Life Expectancy at Birth: Russian Federation, 1959-2008
75 73 71 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 69 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Female Male

Source: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Available at www.mortality.org, Accessed June 7, 2010.

Bleeding Russia
Excess Mortality in the Russian Federation, 1992-2008
(In comparison with Russian Federation mortality schedules for 1986/87)
500000 450000 Excess Mortality (deaths per year) 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Excess male: 5.296 Million Excess female: 1.750 Million Total excess mortality: 7.045 M

Males

Females

Note: Excess mortality calculated for given calendar years against Russian Federation age-specific mortality rates for 1986/87

Source: Derived from Human Mortality Database (http://mortality.org)

Wrong Direction
Death rates from all causes, Russia vs. EU, 1970-2008 (total)
1700 1600 1500 1400 Age-standardized death rate (deaths per 100000) 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Russian Federation

EU

EU members before May 2004

EU members since 2004 or 2007

Source: Europe Health For All Database, World Health Organization, July 2008. Accessed 18 October 2010.

More Bang Per Buck

Age-standardized mortality rates from Cardiovascular Disease vs. PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP for Russia and 174 Other Countries, 2002
Age-standardized mortality rate (deaths per 100000)
800

Russia 600 0 200 400

10

12

Log of Per Capita GDP PPP, 2002 ($)

Source: World Development Indicators 2008, World Bank; WHOSIS, World Health Organization 8

Find The Outlier That Does Not Belong

Age-standardized mortality rates from injury/external causes vs. PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP for Russia and 174 Other Countries, 2002
350.00
Burundi

300.00

Liberia

Congo

y = -21.912Ln(x) + 267.69 R2 = 0.3052

Age Standarized Mortality Rate (deaths per 100000)

250.00

Sierra Leone

Angola

Russia

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00 100.00

1000.00

10000.00

100000.00

Per Capita GDP PPP, 2002 ($constant 2005)

Source: World Development Indicators 2008, World Bank; WHOSIS, World Health Organization

Its Not For Want Of Schooling

Percentage Share of People Aged 25-64 with Tertiary Educational Attainment: OECD Countries (2001) vs. Russia (2002)

10

Educated, But Not Healthy

Estimated Female Life Expectancy at age 20 in Russia (2000 by educational level) and the World (1999)

Sources: Alan D. Lopez, Joshua Salomon, Omar Ahmad, Christopher JL. Murray, and Doris Mafat, Life Tables for 191 Countries: Data, Methods and Results, GPE Discussion Paper Series: No. 9. World Health Organization, 1999; LEs by education in Russia from: Michael Murphy, Martin Bobak, Amanda Nicholson, Richard Rose, and Michael Marmot, The Widening Gap in Mortality by Educational Level in the Russian Federation, 19802001, American Journal of Public Health 96, no. 7 (July 2006): 12931299, Figure 2.

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Botswana Zim babwe Zam bia Nam ibia M alawi Uganda Rwanda Swaziland Lesotho Central African Republic South Africa Djibouti Kenya Sierra Leone Burundi E thiopia United Republic of Tanzania E ritrea Som alia M ozam bique Cte d'Ivoire Burkina Faso Dem . Rep. of the Congo Liberia M adagascar Togo M ali Nigeria Cam eroon Guinea-Bissau Sudan Chad Haiti Congo Guinea Angola Nauru Ghana Gabon Afghanistan P apua New Guinea Cam bodia Benin Niger Yem en E quatorial Guinea Lao P eople's Dem . Republic Nepal Com oros Senegal M auritania Gam bia Iraq Bangladesh Vanuatu Solom on Islands Guatem ala Tuvalu Dem .P eoples's Rep. of Korea Bolivia Lebanon Libyan Arab Jam ahiriya Jordan M yanm ar India M aldives Syrian Arab Republic Sao Tom e and P rincipe Bhutan Kiribati Tunisia Fiji P alau M alaysia Viet Nam M arshall Islands Turkm enistan E gypt Iran (Islam ic Republic of) M orocco Seychelles Nicaragua P eru P akistan P hilippines M icronesia (Fed. States of) Sam oa Kazakhstan Algeria Russia - E lem entary E ducation E cuador Thailand Republic of M oldova Saint Kitts and Nevis M ongolia Niue Trinidad and Tobago Saudi Arabia Kyrgyzstan Honduras Indonesia Uzbekistan Turkey China Tonga Om an Bahrain Brazil M auritius Cook Islands Rom ania Belarus Ukraine Sri Lanka Baham as Russian Federation Russia - Interm ediate TFYR M acedonia Hungary E l Salvador Latvia Qatar Tajikistan Surinam e E stonia Bulgaria Colom bia Saint Lucia Cape Verde Kuwait Albania P araguay United Arab E m irates Dom inican Republic Belize Bosnia and Herzegovina Guyana Republic of Korea Saint Vincent and Grenadines Azerbaijan Slovakia P oland Grenada Georgia Croatia Venezuela Cuba P anam a Antigua and Barbuda Denm ark Czech Republic Arm enia Barbados Ireland Lithuania Yugoslavia Uruguay M exico Cyprus Argentina Jam aica Slovenia Costa Rica New Zealand P ortugal United Kingdom United States of Am erica Israel Germ any Brunei Darussalam Chile Iceland Dom inica Russia - University Austria Singapore Greece Finland M alta Netherlands Luxem bourg Belgium Sweden Canada San M arino Italy Norway Andorra Spain Australia Switzerland M onaco France Japan

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Female Life Expectancy at age 20

Patentable Knowledge: Neck and Neck With West Virginia

Number of U.S. Patents Granted, 19952008: Russian Federation vs. Selected Other Countries and Places
1000000

100000

10000

1000

100

10

1 1995 1996 1997 USA France India 1998 1999 2000 Japan Taiwan Russia 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Germany South Korea Brazil

United Kingdom China West Virginia

12

Source: Patents By Country, State, and Year - All Patent Types (December 2008), http://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htm ; accessed February 26, 2010.

Failing Grades In Knowledge Production

Number of Out of Country Patent Applications, 19952007 per Million Tertiary Graduates vs. GDP per Capita PPP, 2005
1,000,000
Out of Country Patent Applications per 1 million Tertiary Graduates

100,000

y = 3E-06x2.1294 R2 = 0.7319

Switzerland Finland Japan Jordan

USA

10,000

1,000

China India

Brazil Bahrain

100
Iran

Russia

10

Pakistan

0 $100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $), 2005

13

Sources: World Intellectual Property Organization, World Intellectual Property Indicators 2009, September 2009, http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/; World Development Indicators 2008 CD-ROM, World Bank.; and W. Lutz, A. Goujon, S.K.C., and W. Sanderson, Reconstruction of population by age, sex and level of educational attainment of 120 countries for 2000-2030. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, (2007).

Dwindling Consensus
Estimated and Projected Population of Russia, 2000-2030, UN and U.S. Census Bureau
150000

Population (estimated and projected--thousands)

140000

130000

120000

110000 2000
UN-High variant

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

UN-Medium variant

UN-Low variant

U.S. Census Bureau

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010. Source: US Census Bureau International Database. Available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, Accessed on February 26, 2010.

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Fewer Workers Tomorrow

Adult Population 15-64 by Age Group: Russia, 2005-2030 (estimated and projected, millions)
120

100
Population (millions)

80

60

40

20

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

15-29

30-49

50-64

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html; Accessed February 26, 2010.

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Russias Manpower Outlook: Western Europe Has It Easy

Projected Population Change For Adult Age Groups, 2005-2030: Western Europe vs. Russia (percentage change)
60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00%

Western Europe Russia

Population Change

10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% 15- 19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65- 69 70- 74

Age Group

16

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/. Note: Definition of Western Europe from U.S. Census Bureau

Anyone Home?
Russian Urban Population, 1990-2009 (estimated)
110000.00
109000.00

108000.00
Population (thousands)

107000.00 106000.00
105000.00

104000.00 103000.00
102000.00

101000.00 100000.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) Internet Database, http://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgi, accessed on February 25, 2010.

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Urban Life Expectancy in BRIC countries, most recent year available

Male Russia (2006) Moscow (2006) St. Petersburg (2006) 61.03 67.17 62.84 Female 73.7 76.5 74.83 Total 67.29 71.81 68.9

Sources: Russia: Russian Demographic Yearbook, 2007, Goskomstat China: China Human Development Report, 2005

China (2000)

73.11

77.51

75.21

Shanghai (2000)
Beijing (2000) India (2002-06) Chennai (2004) New Delhi (2000) Kolkata (2001) Maharashtra (1998-02) Mumbai (2007) Brazil (2005) So Paulo (1970) Rio De Janeiro (1970) So Paulo (2005) Rio De Janeiro (2005) Brasilia (2005) Mexico (2004) Nuevo Leon (2004) Mexico City (2004) Turkey (2002) Istanbul (2002) Indonesia (2002) Jakarta (2002)

77.49
76.13 67.1 77.15 69.5 74 68.7

81.19
79.92 70 77.56 69.5 75 72

79.36
77.96 68.8

India: Chennai - City Report of Chennai 2005; Kolkata - West Bengal Human Development Report 2004

Urban Maharashtra - Human Development: Strengthening District Level Vital Statistics in India by F. Ram, Chander Shekhar and S.K Mohanty
India Total - ORGI, MHA, GOI (New Delhi), "Life expectancy at birth by sex and residence, India 1970-75 to 2002-06" Brazil: Indicadores Sociodemograficos, IBGE, 2006 (Note: 2006 Data is total, not urban only) Brazil 1970 Data (Note: Total LE, not divided by male/female): "Mortality, Income Distribution, and Rural-Urban Residence in Brazil" Jose Alberto M. de Carvalho and Charles H. Wood, Population and Development Review, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Sep., 1978), pp. 405-420 Mexico: Conapo (2006a). Indicadores de mortalidad y fecundidad, 19902006. Serie histrica basada en la conciliacin demogrfica a partir del XII Censo General de Poblacin y Vivienda 2000 y el

69.5

70.3 71

68.35

75.93

72.05 58.5 57.1

69.49 68.08 71.19 71.79 72.69 72.81

78.03 77.02 78.74 77.21 77.79 78

73.66 72.44 74.87 74.5 75.24 74.58

II Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005. Note: Total Mexico not divided by urban and rural Indonesia: Human Development Report 2004
Turkey: Human Development Report 2004 Egypt: Human Development Report 2008

69 64.2 70.3 68.98

74.2 68.1 74.2 73.6 74.8

72.4 66.2 72.3 71.3 71.4

18

Egypt (2006) Cairo (2006)

70.2

Did You Say Soldiers?

Males aged 15-24 in Russia, estimated and projected, 2000-2030, UNPD and U.S. Census Bureau
13000 12000

Population, estimated and projected (thousands)

11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 2000

US Census Bureau

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

UN-High variant

UN-Medium variant

UN-Low variant

19

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010 and US Census Bureau International Database. Available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, Accessed on February 26, 2010.

At Least Therell Be Old Folks

Estimated and Projected Population Structure: Russian Federation, 2005 vs. 2030, UN Estimates
80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Males Females

Thousands
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010.

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Come On, How Many Muslims Really?

Traditionally Muslim Ethnicities in Russia (as enumerated in 1989 Census and 2002 Census)

Source: Timothy Heleniak, Regional Distribution of the Muslim Population of Russia, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2006, 47, No. 4, pp. 426-448, reproduced from Table 3

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Go West (and South), Young Man!

Net Migration in Russia, 19892002

Source: Timothy Heleniak, Growth Poles and Ghost Towns in the Russian Far North, (paper presented at "Russia and the North" conference at Centre for Russia Studies Annual Conference, November 28-29, 2007, Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, Oslo, Norway), Figure 1. 22

Russias Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications

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