Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Development Studies
Associates (DSA)
October 2008
Addis Ababa
Table of Contents
1.Executive Summary..............................................................................................3
2.Product Description and Application.................................................................3
3.Market Study, Plant Capacity and Production Program.................................4
3.1Market Study...........................................................................................................................4
3.1.1Present Demand and Supply............................................................................................4
3.1.2Projected Demand............................................................................................................4
3.1.3Pricing and Distribution...................................................................................................5
3.2Plant Capacity.........................................................................................................................5
3.3Production Program................................................................................................................5
8Financial Analysis..................................................................................................9
8.1Underlying Assumption .........................................................................................................9
8.2Investment.............................................................................................................................10
8.3Production Costs...................................................................................................................11
8.4Financial Evaluation.............................................................................................................11
1. Executive Summary
This project profile deals with the establishment of a plant that assembles centrifugal pumps
Amhara National Regional State. The following presents the main findings of the study
Demand projection divulges that the domestic demand for centrifugal pumps is substantial and is
increasing with time. Accordingly, the planned plant is set to assemble 340 centrifugal pumps
annually. The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr
7.11 million and creates job opportunities to 31 citizens
The financial result indicates that the project will generate profit beginning from the first year of
operation. Moreover, the project will break even at 34.20% of capacity utilization and it will
payback fully the initial investment less working capital in four years. The result further show
that the calculated IRR of the project is 22.6%; while the NPV discounted at 18% annually is
about Birr 1.13 million.
In addition to this, the proposed project possesses wide range of economic and social benefits
such as increasing the level of investment, tax revenue, employment creation, diversification of
the economy and import substitution.
Generally the project is technically feasible, financially and commercially viable as well as
socially and economically acceptable. Hence the project is worth implementing.
air-conditioning, and for many other industrial purposes. From the technical point of view,
manufacture of pumps of the above type is comparatively easy. Accordingly, centrifugal pumps
may constitute one of the industrial fields most suit-able for developing countries. Developed
through many years of research, centrifugal pumps feature complete standardization, a fact
which makes possible a comparatively cheap cost of making while offering high performances.
Features of Centrifugal Pump
(1) Keeping favourable efficiency over a wide range of volumes of water, without causing
overload.
(2) Small consumption of electric power and cost of fuels on account of high efficiency.
(3) Less troubles on account of the simple mechanism.
Market Study
3.1.1 Present Demand and Supply
Annual of import of all types of pumps is around 80,000 units of which 60000 units is estimated
to centrifugal pumps. Share of the Amhara Region is about 20000 units. This will increase as
more and more farmers turn to small scale irrigation activities to increase their income. The
current level of use of pumps and the expected increase of this use will justify the establishment
of a viable pump assembly plant in the Amhara Region. Assembled pumps can also be exported
to other parts of the country. The projected plant will cover only 17% of the regional share of the
import.
Year
Projected
demand (pcs)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2,080
2,163
2,250
2,340
2,433
2,531
2,632
2,737
2,847
2,960
3.2
Plant Capacity
Thus, given the expected demand for centrifugal pumps presented earlier, and the planned
technology, the envisaged plant is set to produce 340 pieces annually.
3.3
Production Program
The program is scheduled based on the consideration that the envisaged plant will work 275 days
in a year in 1 shift, where the remaining days will be holidays and for maintenance. During the
first year of operation the plant will operate at 75 percent capacity and then it grows to 85 and 95
percents in the 2nd and 3rd year, respectively. The capacity will grow to 100 percent starting from
the 4th year. This consideration is developed based on the assumption that market and logistics
barriers would take place for the first three years of operation. Annual production can be
doubled by increasing te number of shifts.
The raw materials casts, steels, bolts, ball bearings should be imported, preferably from India.
4.2
A full capacity, 190 tons of casts, steels, bolts, ball bearings, etc are required. All this materials
should be imported. The total cost of these materials is estimated at Birr 1.9 million.
The utility requirements are shown in Table 2 below.
Table 2: Utilities Requirements at Full Capacity
Item
Electricity
Water
Fuel
Qty
110000 kw
6000 m3
5000 lit
Total
Annual
Cost
(Birr)
60,500
15,900
25,000
101,400
Production Process
Machining is followed by inspection, and, in accord with the materials, key-waying, drilling,
etc., after which work pieces are stored in a warehouse.
The operation up to the above stage centred on work by machine tools of centred on work by
machine tools of various kinds. Then, the assembly process takes over, with required parts
brought out of the warehouse for assembly.
The assembled pumps are subjected to performance tests, and they are shipped out after painting
and packing.
Alternative
Integrated manufacturing from the manufacture of raw materials to pumps is alternative
which requires heavy investment. In this project profile, therefore, it is proposed that the plant
makes pumps through machining and assembly of cast materials.
6.2
The machineries and equipment required for producing centrifugal pumps is detailed in Table 3
below.
Table 3: Required Machineries and Equipments
Description
1
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Specification
No
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
The total cost of the above listed machineries and equipments is estimated at Birr 4,760,000
Supplier Address
7
6.3
The total site area for the envisaged plant is estimated to be 1,000m2 where 300m2 is allocated to
the production place and other facilities. The
Human Resource
Salary/Wage (Birr)
Job Title
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
0
1
1
1
3
No.
Monthly
Annual
5,000
60,000
4,000
96,000
2,000
168,000
600
50,400
800
19,200
1,600
19,200
900
10,800
1,500
18,000
1,600
19,200
General Manager
Engineers
Skilled Workers
Unskilled Workers
Clerical Workers
Personnel Head
Secretary
Accountant
Marketing Officer
1
2
7
7
2
1
1
1
1
Casher
1,000
12,000
Security
400
19,200
Genitor
3
31
350
12,600
504,600
Total
Employment Benefits 20% of Annual
Salary
100,920
605,520
7.2
Training Requirement
Both induction and periodic trainings are indispensable. Annual training budget that amounts to
Birr 60,000 is included in the working capital.
8 Financial Analysis
8.1
Underlying Assumption
The financial analysis of centrifugal pumps assembly plant is based on the data provided in the
preceding chapters and the following assumptions.
A. Construction and Finance
Construction period
2 year
Source of finance
Tax holidays
2 years
12%
18%
Value of land
3% of fixed investment
B. Depreciation
Building
5%
10%
Office furniture
10%
Vehicles
20%
Pre-production (amortization)
20%
30
Raw Material-Foreign
120
30
30
Work in Progress
Finished Products
Accounts Receivable
Cash in Hand
Accounts Payable
10
15
30
30
30
8.2
Investment
The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 7.11
million as shown in table 5 below. The Owner shall contribute 40% of the finance in the form of
equity while the remaining 60% is to be financed by bank loan.
Table 5: Initial Investment and Working Capital
Cost
3,000.00
600,000.00
100,000.00
250,000.00
4,760,000.00
5,713,000.00
285,650.00
5,998,650.00
1,113,644.12
Total
7,112,294.12
*Pre-production capital expenditure includes - all expenses for pre-investment studies,
consultancy fee during construction and expenses for companys establishment, project
administration expenses, commission expenses, preproduction marketing and interest
expenses during construction.
10
8.3
Production Costs
The total production cost at full capacity operation is estimated at Birr 3.91 million as detailed in
table 6 below.
Table 6: Production Cost at Full Capacity
101,400.00
605,520.00
171,390.00
Factory costs
5. Depreciation
6. Financial costs
8.4
I.
1,900,000.00
2,778,310.00
623,130.00
512,085.18
3,913,525.18
Financial Evaluation
Profitability
According to the projected income statement attached in the annex part (see annex 3) the project
will generate profit beginning from the first year of operation. Ratios such as the percentage of
net profit to total sales, return on equity and return on total investment are 0.85%, 17.01%, and
1.15%in the first year and are gradually rising to 36.95%, 18.55% and 46.37%. The initial annual
profit is Birr 32,661; while the final is about Birr 1.32 million. The project will generate a total
profit of about Birr 10.27 million during ten operational years. Furthermore, the income
statement and other profitability indicators show that the project is viable.
11
II.
Breakeven Analysis
The breakeven point of the project is estimated by using income statement projection.
Accordingly, the project will break even at 34.20% of capacity utilization.
III.
Payback Period
Investment cost and income statement projection are used in estimating the project payback
period. The projects will payback fully the initial investment less working capital in fourth year
of operation.
IV.
For the envisaged plant the simple rate of return equals to 18.6%.
V.
Based on cash flow statement described in the annex part, the calculated IRR of the project is
22.6% and the net present value at 18 % annual discount rate is Birr 1.13 million.
VI.
Sensitivity Analysis
The envisaged plant is profitable even with considerable cost increment. That is the plant
maintains to be profitable starting from the second year when 10 % cost increment takes place in
the sector. This result is accompanied by a total profit of about Birr 8.56 million. On the other
hand, a 10% decline in sales will reduce the total profit to 6.62 million.
12
A. Profit Generation
The project is found to be financially viable and will generate a total profit of about Birr 10.27
million during ten operational years. Such result induces the project promoters to reinvest the
profit which, therefore, increases the investment magnitude in the region.
B. Tax Revenue
In the project life under consideration, the region will collect about Birr 4 million from corporate
tax payment alone (i.e. excluding income tax, sales tax and VAT). Such result create additional
fund for the regional government that will be used in expanding social and other basic services in
the region
C. Import Substitution and Foreign Exchange Saving
Based on the projected figure we learn that in the project life an estimated amount of USD
4,870,500 will be saved as a result of the proposed project. This will create room for the saved
hard currency to be allocated on other vital and strategic sectors
D. Employment and Income Generation
The proposed project is expected to create employment opportunity to several citizens of the
region. That is, it will provide permanent employment to 31 citizens.
E. Modernization, diversification and integration
The proposed modernizes the economy in general and the agricultural sector in particular. It also
plays great role in diversification and integration of the various sectors.
13
ANNEXES
14
PRODUCTION
Year 1
Year 2
75%
85%
95%
100%
1,329,258
1,506,492
1,683,727
1,772,344
551,864
625,445
699,027
735,818
Raw Material-Local
23,318
26,427
29,536
31,091
Raw Material-Foreign
528,545
599,018
669,491
704,727
2,783
3,154
3,525
3,711
14,023
15,893
17,762
18,697
Work in Progress
69,575
78,852
88,128
92,767
Finished Products
139,150
157,703
176,256
185,533
2. Accounts Receivable
417,273
472,909
528,545
556,364
3. Cash in Hand
57,839
65,551
73,263
77,119
1,252,506
1,419,507
1,586,507
1,670,008
4. Current Liabilities
417,273
472,909
528,545
556,364
Accounts Payable
417,273
472,909
528,545
556,364
835,233
946,597
1,057,962
1,113,644
835,233
111,364
111,364
55,682
CURRENT ASSETS
(continued)
PRODUCTION
5
10
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
1,772,344
1,772,344
1,772,344
1,772,344
1,772,344
1,772,344
735,818
735,818
735,818
735,818
735,818
735,818
31,091
31,091
31,091
31,091
31,091
31,091
704,727
704,727
704,727
704,727
704,727
704,727
3,711
3,711
3,711
3,711
3,711
3,711
18,697
18,697
18,697
18,697
18,697
18,697
Work in Progress
92,767
92,767
92,767
92,767
92,767
92,767
Finished Products
185,533
185,533
185,533
185,533
185,533
185,533
2. Accounts Receivable
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
77,119
77,119
77,119
77,119
77,119
77,119
1,670,008
1,670,008
1,670,008
1,670,008
1,670,008
1,670,008
4. Current Liabilities
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
Accounts Payable
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
556,364
1,113,644
1,113,644
1,113,644
1,113,644
1,113,644
1,113,644
3. Cash in Hand
CURRENT ASSETS
PRODUCTION
Year 1
Year 2
2,999,325
4,112,969
4,242,273
4,390,636
4,900,636
5,127,818
2,999,325
4,112,969
417,273
55,636
55,636
27,818
Total Equity
1,199,730
1,645,188
1,799,595
2,467,781
417,273
55,636
55,636
27,818
2. Inflow Operation
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
Sales Revenue
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
Interest on Securities
2,999,325
2,999,325
4,421,715
3,693,665
4,240,717
4,266,406
2,999,325
2,999,325
2,856,500
2,856,500
142,825
142,825
1,252,506
167,001
167,001
83,500
6. Operating Costs
2,039,256
2,303,349
2,567,443
2,699,489
368,307
430,797
8. Interest Paid
1,129,953
512,085
426,738
341,390
9.Loan Repayments
711,229
711,229
711,229
10.Dividends Paid
Surplus (Deficit)
1,113,644
-179,442
696,972
659,919
861,412
1,113,644
934,202
1,631,174
2,291,093
3,152,505
3. Other Income
Fixed Investments
Pre-production Expenditures
6
5,100,000
7
5,100,000
8
5,100,000
9
5,100,000
10
5,100,000
Total Equity
2. Inflow Operation
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
Sales Revenue
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
4,123,163
4,095,559
4,035,815
3,264,843
3,264,843
3,264,843
Fixed Investments
Pre-production Expenditures
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
456,401
514,145
539,749
565,353
565,353
565,353
8. Interest Paid
256,043
170,695
85,348
9. Loan Repayments
711,229
711,229
711,229
976,837
1,004,441
1,064,185
1,835,157
1,835,157
1,835,157
4,129,342
5,133,783
6,197,968
8,033,126
9,868,283
11,703,440
Interest on Securities
3. Other Income
10.Dividends Paid
Surplus (Deficit)
Cumulative Cash Balance
PRODUCTION
Year 2
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
1. Inflow Operation
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
Sales Revenue
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
Interest on Securities
2,999,325
2,999,325
2,874,489
2,414,714
2,678,807
3,185,969
2,999,325
2,999,325
Fixed Investments
2,856,500
2,856,500
142,825
142,825
835,233
111,364
111,364
55,682
5. Operating Costs
2,039,256
2,303,349
2,567,443
2,699,489
430,797
-2,999,325
-2,999,325
950,511
1,920,286
2,166,193
1,914,031
-2,999,325
-5,998,650
-5,048,139
-3,127,853
-961,660
952,372
-2,999,325
-2,541,801
682,642
1,168,746
1,117,298
836,641
-2,999,325
-5,541,126
-4,858,484
-3,689,738
-2,572,440
-1,735,799
2. Other Income
Pre-production Expenditures
(Continued)
PRODUCTION
5
10
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
1. Inflow Operation
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
Sales Revenue
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
3,155,891
3,213,634
3,239,238
3,264,843
3,264,843
3,264,843
Fixed Investments
Pre-production Expenditures
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
2,699,489
456,401
514,145
539,749
565,353
565,353
565,353
1,944,109
1,886,366
1,860,762
1,835,157
1,835,157
1,835,157
2,896,481
4,782,847
6,643,608
8,478,766
10,313,923
12,149,081
720,159
592,177
495,034
413,747
350,633
297,147
-1,015,640
-423,462
71,571
485,319
835,952
1,133,099
Interest on Securities
2. Other Income
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW
1,133,099.05
22.6%
75%
85%
95%
100%
100%
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
3,825,000
4,335,000
4,845,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
1,799,045
2,038,917
2,278,790
2,398,726
2,398,726
2,025,955
2,296,083
2,566,210
2,701,274
2,701,274
Other Income
2. Less Variable Cost
VARIABLE MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
3. Less Fixed Costs
OPERATIONAL MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
4. Less Cost of Finance
5. GROSS PROFIT
52.97
52.97
52.97
52.97
52.97
863,341
887,562
911,783
923,893
923,893
1,162,614
1,408,521
1,654,427
1,777,381
1,777,381
30.40
32.49
34.15
34.85
34.85
1,129,953
512,085
426,738
341,390
256,043
32,661
896,436
1,227,690
1,435,990
1,521,338
368,307
430,797
456,401
32,661
896,436
859,383
1,005,193
1,064,937
0.85%
20.68%
25.34%
28.16%
29.83%
0.85%
20.68%
17.74%
19.71%
20.88%
Return on Investment
17.01%
20.28%
18.23%
18.93%
18.57%
Return on Equity
1.15%
31.51%
30.21%
35.33%
37.43%
10
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
5,100,000
2,398,726
2,398,726
2,398,726
2,398,726
2,398,726
2,701,274
2,701,274
2,701,274
2,701,274
2,701,274
Other Income
2. Less Variable Cost
VARIABLE MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
3. Less Fixed Costs
OPERATIONAL MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
4. Less Cost of Finance
52.97
52.97
52.97
52.97
52.97
816,763
816,763
816,763
816,763
816,763
1,884,511
1,884,511
1,884,511
1,884,511
1,884,511
36.95
36.95
36.95
36.95
36.95
170,695
85,348
1,713,816
1,799,163
1,884,511
1,884,511
1,884,511
514,145
539,749
565,353
565,353
565,353
1,199,671
1,259,414
1,319,157
1,319,157
1,319,157
Gross Profit/Sales
33.60%
35.28%
36.95%
36.95%
36.95%
23.52%
24.69%
25.87%
25.87%
25.87%
Return on Investment
19.27%
18.91%
18.55%
18.55%
18.55%
Return on Equity
42.17%
44.27%
46.37%
46.37%
46.37%
5. GROSS PROFIT
6. Income (Corporate) Tax
7. NET PROFIT
RATIOS (%)
Year 1
2,999,325
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,999,325
0
2,856,500
142,825
0
0
0
2,999,325
0
0
0
1,799,595
1,799,595
0
1,199,730
1,199,730
0
0
0
0
0
0
Year 2
7,112,294
1,113,644
0
0
0
0
0
1,113,644
0
5,998,650
2,856,500
2,856,500
285,650
0
0
0
7,112,294
0
0
0
4,267,376
4,267,376
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
0
0
0
0
PRODUCTION
1
7,562,228
2,186,708
568,669
69,575
139,150
417,273
57,839
934,202
0
5,375,520
5,713,000
0
285,650
623,130
0
0
7,562,228
417,273
417,273
0
4,267,376
4,267,376
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
0
32,661
0
32,661
2
7,803,071
3,050,681
644,492
78,852
157,703
472,909
65,551
1,631,174
0
4,752,390
5,713,000
0
285,650
1,246,260
0
0
7,803,071
472,909
472,909
0
3,556,147
3,556,147
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
32,661
896,436
0
896,436
3
8,006,860
3,877,600
720,315
88,128
176,256
528,545
73,263
2,291,093
0
4,129,260
5,713,000
0
285,650
1,869,390
0
0
8,006,860
528,545
528,545
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
929,097
859,383
0
859,383
4
8,328,643
4,822,513
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
3,152,505
0
3,506,130
5,713,000
0
285,650
2,492,520
0
0
8,328,643
556,364
556,364
0
2,133,688
2,133,688
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
1,788,480
1,005,193
0
1,005,193
Continued
PRODUCTION
TOTAL ASSETS
1. Total Current Assets
Inventory on Materials and Supplies
Work in Progress
Finished Products in Stock
Accounts Receivable
Cash in Hand
Cash Surplus, Finance Available
Securities
2. Total Fixed Assets, Net of Depreciation
Fixed Investment
Construction in Progress
Pre-Production Expenditure
Less Accumulated Depreciation
3. Accumulated Losses Brought Forward
4. Loss in Current Year
TOTAL LIABILITIES
5. Total Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Bank Overdraft
6. Total Long-term Debt
Loan A
Loan B
7. Total Equity Capital
Ordinary Capital
Preference Capital
Subsidies
8. Reserves, Retained Profits Brought Forward
9. Net Profit After Tax
Dividends Payable
Retained Profits
5
8,682,350
5,799,350
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
4,129,342
0
2,883,000
5,713,000
0
285,650
3,115,650
0
0
8,682,350
556,364
556,364
0
1,422,459
1,422,459
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
2,793,673
1,064,937
0
1,064,937
6
9,170,791
6,803,791
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
5,133,783
0
2,367,000
5,713,000
0
285,650
3,631,650
0
0
9,170,791
556,364
556,364
0
711,229
711,229
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
3,858,610
1,199,671
0
1,199,671
7
9,718,976
7,867,976
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
6,197,968
0
1,851,000
5,713,000
0
285,650
4,147,650
0
0
9,718,976
556,364
556,364
0
0
0
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
5,058,280
1,259,414
0
1,259,414
8
11,038,133
9,703,133
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
8,033,126
0
1,335,000
5,713,000
0
285,650
4,663,650
0
0
11,038,133
556,364
556,364
0
0
0
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
6,317,695
1,319,157
0
1,319,157
9
12,357,291
11,538,291
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
9,868,283
0
819,000
5,713,000
0
285,650
5,179,650
0
0
12,357,291
556,364
556,364
0
0
0
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
7,636,852
1,319,157
0
1,319,157
10
13,676,448
13,373,448
758,226
92,767
185,533
556,364
77,119
11,703,440
0
303,000
5,713,000
0
285,650
5,695,650
0
0
13,676,448
556,364
556,364
0
0
0
0
2,844,918
2,844,918
0
0
8,956,009
1,319,157
0
1,319,157
10