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Topics in Chapter
Corporate Valuation Value-Based Management Corporate Governance
FCF1
FCF2
Dave Tufte
Its not quite clear here: the big issue is that the value of assets-in-place could be their
Book value Market value Ability to generate cash flow
Dave Tufte
We prefer a free cash flow basis for valuing assets in place
Book values are often out of date Market values arent always clear if youre not trying to sell the assets Free cash flow can be measured off of accounting statements
Assets-in-Place
Assets-in-place are tangible, such as buildings, machines, inventory. Usually they are expected to grow. They generate free cash flows. The PV of their expected future free cash flows, discounted at the WACC, is the value of operations.
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Value of Operations
Vop =
t=1
FCFt (1 + WACC)t
Nonoperating Assets
Marketable securities Ownership of non-controlling interest in another company Value of nonoperating assets usually is very close to figure that is reported on balance sheets.
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Vop =
t=1
t=1
Vop =
t=1
FCF
1+ g 1 + WACC
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Vop =
FCF1 (WACC - g)
FCF0(1+g) = (WACC - g)
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VTotal
$520.00
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VEquity
$270.00
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$27.00
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Dave Tufte
All firms envision themselves as adding some value (through their brilliance ) to the investments made by investors such as dumb doctors
The market valuation of this is intrinsic MVA Broadly, its similar to goodwill
We cant value it directly, but we can back out its value
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Dave Tufte
Its not clear that what follows is an example for a
Different firm, or The same firm in a different situation
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The weighted average cost of capital, WACC, is 10%. The company has 10 million shares of stock.
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Horizon Value
Free cash flows are forecast for three years in this example, so the forecast horizon is three years. Growth in free cash flows is not constant during the forecast, so we cant use the constant growth formula to find the value of operations at time 0.
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HV = Vop at time t
2 10.00
3 g = 6% 20.00
FCF3(1+g) (1+WACC)
Vop
$530/(1+WACC)3
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$37.69
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Dave Tufte
Careful
Capital requirements on the next slide are a ratio, not a total
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Dave Tufte
How MVA is driven
Positively related to sales growth Positively related to operating profits Negatively related to WACC Negatively related to capital requirements
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Dave Tufte
A big formula follows, that does get explained over the following several slides.
It is derived in the text in Section 13.3
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Dave Tufte
You can think of the first term (on the next slide) as gross cash inflows
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Dave Tufte
You can think of the second term (on the next slide) as how much the firm gets to keep.
A margin of gross cash inflows, minus How much of that has to be paid back to investors
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Insights (Cont.)
The second bracket is the operating profit (as a %) the firm gets to keep, less the return that investors require for having tied up their capital in the firm. CR (1+g)
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OP WACC
Dave Tufte
The last term on the previous slide is very similar to the first term in the MVA formula
Substitute out CR with its definition Use the approximation for dividing by 1+g
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If the spread between the expected return, EROICt, and the required return, WACC, is positive, then MVA is positive and growth makes MVA larger. The opposite is true if the spread is negative.
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Dave Tufte
What follows is just an example, but it points out that there is a tradeoff between operating profitability and capital requirements that can produce a pitfall for management (without adequate financial advice) about how to proceed
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(300.0) (360.0)
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Dave Tufte
Recall that on my pink sheet of things we dont know in finance, is that it isnt clear why management appears to be a liability so much of the time.
A lot of this has to do with mismanaging value
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(More . .)
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Dave Tufte
The key to mitigating these is not avoiding them
Theyre human nature and cant be avoided
Instead, you need to have mechanisms to avoid letting management get entrenched
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Corporate Governance
The set of laws, rules, and procedures that influence a companys operations and the decisions made by its managers.
Sticks (threat of removal) Carrots (compensation)
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(More . .)
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(More . .)
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Dave Tufte
The next slide is things to be avoided
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Anti-Takeover Provisions
Targeted share repurchases (i.e., greenmail) Shareholder rights provisions (i.e., poison pills) Restricted voting rights plans
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Dave Tufte
This text doesnt say anything about backdating on the next slide
This is OK backdating isnt a huge issue, but it is current
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Dave Tufte
I think the next slide is a load of cr*p.
Increasingly blockholders foster conservatism in managers We need more obnoxious blockholders like Kirk Kerkorian
We need less CALPers and TIAA-CREF
Block Ownership
Outside investor owns large amount (i.e., block) of companys shares
Institutional investors, such as CalPERS or TIAA-CREF
Blockholders often monitor managers and take active role, leading to better corporate governance
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